“The new Abraham Accords have totally changed the paradigm. It’s normalization first, peace will come later.”
Michael Oren was a former member of the Knesset, a former deputy minister in the Israel prime minister’s office and was Israel’s ambassador to the United States (2009-2013).
The US-Israel relationship is the most special among all of the United States’ allies. This is due to three pillars: democratic values, defense, and the spiritual connection. The recent Abraham Accords represent a major breakthrough in the Middle East peace process and overturned the conventional wisdom. It was thought peace between Israel and Palestine needed to occur before any normalization with the broader Arab world took place. Now, Israel has agreements with countries like the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. “These Arab countries remain committed to a resolution of the Palestinian problem, but they weren’t going to wait anymore.”
Formal normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia is one of the biggest goals in the peace process. Saudi Arabia holds significant influence in the Arab world as custodians of Mecca and Medina. Israel and Saudi Arabia share strategic interests in their desire to act as checks against Iran.
LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE
SPEAKER
Michael Oren
Israeli Ambassador to the United States
(2009-2013)
MODERATOR
Anthony Scaramucci
Founder & Managing Partner
SkyBridge
EPISODE TRANSCRIPT
John Darsie: (00:07)
Hello everyone. And welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is John Darsie. I'm the managing director of SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance technology and public policy. SALT Talks are a digital interview series with leading investors, creators, and thinkers. And our goal on SALT Talks is the same as our goal at our SALT conferences, which is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future.
John Darsie: (00:39)
And we're very excited today to welcome ambassador Michael Oren to SALT Talks. Ambassador Michael Oren has devoted his life to serving Israel and the Jewish people around the world. As a member of Knesset and deputy minister and the prime minister's office, he has interacted with foreign leaders and defendant Israel in the media. He spearheaded efforts to strengthen the Israel diaspora relations to develop the Golan Heights and to fight BDS. As chairman of a classified sub-committee, he dealt with some of Israel's most sensitive security issues.
John Darsie: (01:11)
Prior to that for nearly five years, ambassador Oren served as Israel's ambassador to the United States. He was instrumental in obtaining US defense aid, especially for the iron dome system and American loan guarantees for Israel's economy, which is absolutely booming. A graduate of Princeton and Columbia, Dr. Oren was a visiting professor at Harvard, Yale, and Georgetown. He holds four honorary doctorates and was awarded the statesman of the year metal by the Washington Institute for near East policy and the Dr. Martin Luther King legacy prize for international service.
John Darsie: (01:46)
His last three books, Six Days of War, Power, Faith, and Fantasy, and Ally: My Journey Across the American-Israeli Divide, where all New York times bestsellers. He received the LA Times history book of the year award and national humanities prize and the Jewish book award. Hosting today's talk is Anthony Scaramucci, the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, a global alternative investment firm. He's also the chairman of SALT. And without further ado, I'll turn it over to Anthony for the interview.
Anthony Scaramucci: (02:18)
Well ambassador thank you so much for joining us today on SALT Talks. I start these things the same way, I ask people, what is it about you that we can't find on your Wikipedia page? And I know you grew up in the United States, tell us something about your upbringing that led you to this career org.
Michael Oren: (02:39)
I started off as a writer, Anthony. First of all, it's great to be with you. Thank you, John, for that very warm introduction. I started off as a poet and a playwright and a screenwriter. When I was 17 years old, I won the National PBS Young Filmmakers festival, first prize. And with the short film, I went off to Hollywood and I became Orson Welles production assistants. Those of you who are watching the film, [inaudible 00:03:05], it hits home. [inaudible 00:03:08] is my third work of fiction. It's a collection of short stories called the Knight Archer and other stories. And I have a novel, To All Who Call In Truth, is coming out in May.
Anthony Scaramucci: (03:20)
Congratulations. How did you shift from that to the world of diplomacy and international relations and geopolitics?
Michael Oren: (03:29)
Well, it's never really shifted. It's always been there, but I must say that being a writer is a great tool for diplomacy. It enables you to understand people, to understand situations and it makes you hopefully more articulate and putting together your ideas and getting across sometimes very difficult interviews or difficult audiences. The audiences, as you know, Anthony have gotten more difficult over the years. And so the writing part of it is a great tool.
Anthony Scaramucci: (03:58)
Well, listen, the audiences have gotten more difficult for me, but John Dorsey for some reason gets fan mail as a result of these SALT Talks, ambassador. So it's a point of contention between me and my therapist. I just wanted to point that out to you. Let me jump right into it though, the US-Israel relationship, if you had to characterize the state of that relationship today, how would you make that characterization.
Michael Oren: (04:25)
Depends on which field. The US-Israel relation is a very special relationship. It is actually more special even than the US-France, US-Italian. Perhaps even the US-British relationship, because it has three pillars. One is obviously the shared Democrat value. For all the challenges of these values are going through right now with the different interpretations.
Michael Oren: (04:46)
The fact of the matter is, we've never known in Israel, [inaudible 00:04:48] second of non democratic governance, is one of the few countries in the world like that, maybe five in the whole entire planet. And we have elections, we have too many elections as you know. And an independent judiciary and an independent press and all the basic rights of assembly and free speech. And that's in the middle East, but even generally in the world, that's become a rarity. So that's a very strong pillar.
Michael Oren: (05:11)
The other pillar is the defense pillar. And here I say on equivocally that the US-Israel strategic Alliance is the deepest and most multi-facets that the United States has had with any other foreign power in the post-World War II period, because it encompasses so many different areas. It's intelligence sharing at the highest possible level, its weapons development. You mentioned iron dome jobs. I brought the funding from iron dome, but that is one of a triple tier missile defense system, which the United States uses.
Michael Oren: (05:42)
Israel is developing, America's future battle tank Israel is developing, every gun on every destroyer in the US Navy carries, every restorative gun, every American fighter pilots get this one. Whether it's a fixed win or helicopter pilot, every American fighter pilot [inaudible 00:05:58] is rarely made helmet. So it's special forces training, all of that is in the defense relationship. But there's another aspect of it, which I think is missing from say the US-Italian or the US-French relationship is the spiritual connection.
Michael Oren: (06:12)
Because America was and remains a religious country. And more people go to church in the United States still than any country is certainly in the West. People read their Bible and God promises the Jewish people, this land. And a lot of Americans say that very, very seriously. And so the spiritual tie, is very, very deep. And I encountered that all the time in Washington, both on the democratic and Republican side. And so it makes for a very strong bond. It doesn't mean we don't have differences. We've had some rather large differences in recent years.
Anthony Scaramucci: (06:47)
When you characterize iron dome, I just want to just relay it to people that have not been to Israel and just want to see what iron dome is effectively. Israel has being assaulted by projectiles from the North and from the South, from the Gaza strip. And again, correct me if I'm wrong, but it's something like, 10,000 a year. Is that wrong? What's the number of projectiles that are entering Israel?
Michael Oren: (07:12)
Well, it's gone down. There has been days. During one war, I was in military for about 35 years. And then a couple of wars when we were hit by thousands of rockets. The iron dome again, is this triple tiered system. The iron dome takes out projectiles that go up in the air and come down. It's not a standoff rockets. And, the US army buys them for the Korean border, for example. Because the North Koreans use mortars and short range rockets that can be taken out by iron dome. And it's the only anti-ballistic system of that nature that has been proven effective in combat in history. It's very difficult.
Michael Oren: (07:46)
For many years, it took the West to figure out how to take down like a V1 or V2, rocket, very difficult, getting two bullets to meet in the air. The second is David's Sling. And David's Sling is a US-Israel project that can intercept a cruise missile, not a missile that goes up and down, but a missile that can be guided by a joystick, very sophisticated. And the third level is the arrow system, which is a missile that takes out an intercontinental ballistic missile. An ICBM that exits the US, the atmosphere and comes down through the atmosphere. Our [inaudible 00:08:21] rocket takes out that missile in the outer space.
Anthony Scaramucci: (08:26)
And the reason why this is so important is that you've protected the land of Israel, by knocking out 90 plus percent of these projectiles. I was in a beautiful town in the South of Israel. Unfortunately, I can't remember the name of it, you'll remember, but they took the case and rockets, and they turned it into a menorah on top of the [crosstalk 00:08:49]. And I met with the mayor [inaudible 00:08:54] as well.
Anthony Scaramucci: (08:55)
And I was very impressed with the way they were living their lives under that threat, but also recognizing that they were going to live a very wholesome and full life despite the threat of terrorism. And it was enormously impressive to me. And the reason I'm bringing all this up is it speaks to the Israeli culture. And so country's doing very well right now. Tell us what some of the elements are of the Israeli culture that's allowing for this type of success.
Michael Oren: (09:26)
Well are a highly diverse culture. People look at Israel [inaudible 00:09:31] people who more or less look like me, maybe they have a little bit darker hair. But the fact of the matter is Israel is, Israel is majority non Western country. A majority of Jews here are from the East, from Arab countries, from North Africa, from Iran and Iraq. There are Ethiopian Jews, Africans, several hundred thousand African Jews. 21% of the population is Arab, mostly Muslim, but also Christians, [inaudible 00:10:00].
Michael Oren: (10:02)
It is racially, religiously, culturally diverse country. What all holds it together. A couple of things. The democracy is very important here. Democracy is, is not necessarily an end in itself here. It's also a means to social cohesion. It's a way in which all of these disparate ideologies and backgrounds can get together and scream at each other. And I've been in Knesset, it reaches some very loud decibels there. And blow off steam. And we can reach [inaudible 00:10:33] polarization here. So the greed that has plagued the United States.
Michael Oren: (10:39)
It is a traditional society. It's a society that manages to balance majernity, technology innovation with tradition. Over 80% of population is traditional, which is very high and going up, not going down in contrast to United States and elsewhere in the West. And it's a family country. And I think the family values here are very strong. And with the United States and the West, it's also important part of our relationship with the East. When you ever have Eastern visitors, and I did a lot of work at the prime minister's office with Korea, South Korea, with Japan and other Eastern countries. They always point to the fact that what we share is our family values. And it really holds it together. Great premium on innovation. We're regularly listed the most innovative country in the world, with per capita, more startups [inaudible 00:11:34] about 250 international high-tech companies have at least one in our R&D center here. A company like Microsoft, or Intel has four R&D centers here.
Anthony Scaramucci: (11:49)
I should shift gears abruptly to talking about the Abraham accords. And again, for our viewers, the Israelis are normalizing relationships with countries like the UAE, Bahrain, I believe Morocco. Tell me what other countries you've signed these normalization treaties. With Michael.
Michael Oren: (12:10)
Well, Abraham accords are the [inaudible 00:12:14] name for the recent peace agreement between Israel, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates. Now the Sudan is signed on and a huge breakthrough in the peace treaty between Israel and Morocco, the largest and most influential North African country. These accords have totally overturned and appended all of our assumptions about peace process. The assumption that was running in the United States and Europe was that first, you had to have peace between Israel and the Palestinians, and only then you'd have peace between Israel and the Arab world.
Michael Oren: (12:45)
And to get peace with the Palestinians you had to create a Palestinian [inaudible 00:12:47] state, you had a re divide Jerusalem. You had to uproot a lot of Israelis who live in what we call the Judea and Sumeria, the West bank. None of that proves to be true. We have these treaties. These Arab countries remain committed to a resolution of the Palestinian problem that they weren't going to wait anymore. We're going to [inaudible 00:13:07]. And, these accords also overturn the notion that first you make a peace agreement between an Israeli leader and an Arab leader, and then later on normalization seeps in.
Michael Oren: (13:21)
So that was the paradigm of the peace accord between Egypt and Israel. The peace accord between Israel and Jordan. These are now over 40 years old, these agreements. And we have peace between Egypt and Israel, and we have peace with Jordan, but we don't really have peace with the Egyptian people. I think we have peace with their leaders. The new Abraham Accords have created a completely different paradigm. It's normalization first, peace will come later. And we have peace with the Bahrain people, but with the Amarati people, with the Moroccan people. We have dozens of flights now flying to them per week. And I think that any future, a peace arrangement between Israel and Arab States will resemble the Abraham Accords and not the Camp David Accords that were signed by Jimmy Carter and Anwar Sadat [inaudible 00:14:09].
Anthony Scaramucci: (14:10)
It's an obvious question, but I'd like to get your longterm view of this. So, close on Saudi, are you allowed to talk about it, closer than some of the other Arab nations? Where do you think you are?
Michael Oren: (14:26)
I think that the next in line would be a country like Oman. I wouldn't rule out the Kuwaitis at this point. But the size of course is the Juul and the crown, because the Saudis have such a such influence throughout the entire world and part of the entire Muslim world because they are the custodians of the two holiest cities, Islam, Mecca Medina. And that also puts a check on some of their decision-making vis-a-vis Israel and we understand that. But there are many steps that the Saudis can do, and I believe they will do in the coming years, particularly if the Abraham Accords, proved to be both strategically and financially valuable.
Michael Oren: (15:04)
And there's change magically, Anthony is that these very countries that used to look at Israel as an enemy now understand that Israel is an ally that we share the same strategic interest in standing up to Iran. We also serve as a bulwark against Turkey. These Sunni Arab countries are afraid of Sunni Turkey because Turkey backs Islamic extremists like Hamas. So they're literally between a rock and a hard place we're here. And this the more sensitive part of my answer is, we're looking at a period of withdrawal of isolationism.
Michael Oren: (15:38)
It began under Obama. It's certainly continued under Trump. I don't think it's going to change much under Biden. The American people are looking inward not outward. They're trying to figure out how to best police themselves rather than try to have a best would be the policeman of the world. And as America pulls out, geopolitics takes a vacuum like nature. That's going to show up.
Michael Oren: (15:59)
It's going to fill up with Russians. It's going to fill up with Turks. It's going to fill up with Iranians, the Saudis, the Bahrains, the Arab world. [inaudible 00:16:06] They are the power that's going to stand up for this region. And I guess radicalism and Iranian hegemony.
Anthony Scaramucci: (16:17)
I travel throughout the region. It blows me away, ambassador, how much everybody in the region has in common with each other. And of course, I love the name Abraham Accords, because it's about the father Abraham and the seven tribes. And basically everybody's all brothers. And so, it's a warm way to provide the connectability, but what are the risks. When you step back and say, okay, there's been possibly 60, 70 years, let's call it from the founding of Israel. 72, 73 years ago. There's been this stress intention in the area. What are the risks that you're worried about?
Michael Oren: (16:59)
Well, specifically, it'd be the outbreak of another round of fighting between Israel and Hamas, which is the Palestinian radical organization that controls Gaza. And we've had several boards [inaudible 00:17:10], an outbreak of war between Israel and Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon. Hezbollah being a puppet terrorist organization, in the PEI control of Iran. [inaudible 00:17:23] these wars, both of these terrorist groups will be fighting in densely populated civilian areas. And there'll be a high degree of collateral damage.
Michael Oren: (17:31)
I'll give you an example. You mentioned that the rockets early Anthony, Hezbollah has planted 130,000 rockets, all aimed right here, right at our neighborhoods, right at our schools and under 200 Southern Lebanese villages. And in order to get at those rocket launches, our armies are going to have to go into those villages, going to have to go into those homes. And Hezbollah is going to keep the civilians in there cause they want us to kill the civilians cause it will de-legitimize us and it will complicate our relationships with the Arab countries. So those could be very disruptive.
Michael Oren: (18:04)
Frankly, Israel should exercise restraint in undertaking unilateral moves in [inaudible 00:18:11], whether the next government will the next part of Judah and Samaria. I'm not in government currently, but I would advise against it. I think our interest right now is innate. Is it allowing the Abraham Accords to sprout roots, to settle in and become a permanent reality. And at least, we shouldn't rock that situation too much. The last great threat would be Iran. And here, it's complex. There's a big question whether the United States will rejoin that the Iranian nuclear deal of 2015, the so-called JCPOA. If that's true, Iran will receive once again, not tens of hundreds of billions of dollars.
Michael Oren: (18:46)
They won't spend that money on schools and hospitals believe me, it's on more missiles, it's more terror, more conquests. And that could put tremendous strains on this alliance. We don't know the degree to which the next administration will back these new alliances. Remember they quite naturally, any administration doesn't want to give too much credit to the previous administration, especially given the political atmosphere in the United States right now. But we hope that the United States will continue to encourage Abraham Accords. And I hope that this next administration will think not once, but three times before rejoining the Iranian nuclear deal.
Anthony Scaramucci: (19:19)
Okay. But we both know because we're both realists and president elect Biden has signaled that he wants to re-engage Iran. And so we're both realists about that. And so if that were to happen, you just mentioned several of the things that are risks on the table for Israel and the Saudi Peninsula and the countries they're in. What do you recommend, let's say that you were the czar, let's say when you got put in charge of the peace for the entire area, and you had five minutes with the vice-president elect, what would your message be to him?
Michael Oren: (19:57)
I've had a lot of five minutes with the president elect. He's great. And that is this, in 2015 and during the period of that accord, those negotiations began in 2012 and they were negotiated behind our back. In fact, we were [inaudible 00:20:13] to on a daily basis negotiations. And this is about an agreement which impacts every man, woman, and child in this country and every man, one child in the middle East. And the fact that the very people who are most impacted and most to lose from this agreement were never even consulted about, it's quite astonishing. There's been much talk about how America betrayed allies in the recent years, this was actually a bonified betrayal and was quite, quite dangerous.
Michael Oren: (20:37)
So I would urge the president elect not to, to try to rectify that historic era and justice and try to restore trust, very important. And to understand that the JCPOA does not block the path of bomb, it actually paves Iran's paths of the bomb. That is the opinion not just in these Israelis, it's the opinion of all our Arab neighbors. Listen to us, listen to what we are saying. And we will have an idea of what a good deal would look like. A very specific idea what would look like. Just listen to us.
Anthony Scaramucci: (21:12)
Last year, John and I hosted an event in Abu Dhabi. We made history at that event, actually. We had the first Israeli venture capitalists come to Abu Dhabi and speak on a stage publicly at an event in Abu Dhabi. General Jim Jones, somebody I know that you know, the former national security advisor for president Obama came to the event with us. And he said something that I'd like to get your reaction to. He said that he felt that the Iranian regime was going to not exist inside of five years. Do you think that that is true? How stable is that regime?
Michael Oren: (21:53)
It broke up, you said it won't be in existence in [crosstalk 00:21:56].
Anthony Scaramucci: (21:57)
General Jones was saying that the Iranian regime will not be an existence inside of five years. And, I was wondering what your reaction is to that and how stable is that regime?
Michael Oren: (22:09)
Well, the first reaction is I've heard the same predictions since 1979, and it hasn't happened.
Anthony Scaramucci: (22:15)
Fair enough.
Michael Oren: (22:16)
It hasn't happened. And now it's even less likely than four because Iran regime had a dry run for the Arab spring. It was the green revolution of June, 2009. And the Iranians learned how to put down a revolution. And they not only develop the technological means, you put something untoward on your Facebook and you're going to get a knock on the door within a minute and you're going to disappear.
Michael Oren: (22:41)
But they've developed a million man force. It's called the besiege. These are thugs. And they will go out as a demonstration. They're going to go out and beat your head in, or if they have to use firearms. And this recent roundup of protest, peaceful protest in Iran, hundreds of civilians, unarmed civilians were shot down. They're not fooling around. So this is a regime that right now internally, there's no power that can overthrow it, zero.
Anthony Scaramucci: (23:11)
Well, I have one last question then I have to turn it over to the millennial, Michael, which pains me. Because, the guy's got just [crosstalk 00:23:19] coming in and, I think he's going to start getting those portraits of himself that he signs and sends out the people, which is even more revolting. But, I want to talk about the Six Days of War, June of 1967 and the Making of the Modern Middle East, which is a book that I read. I also read Power, Faith, and Fantasy.
Anthony Scaramucci: (23:41)
And that's why I was so delighted to get the opportunity to meet you in the King David Hotel, when I was in Jerusalem a few years ago. But in the book, you talk about how that war and the victory effectively for the Israelis in that war has set up what we're living with today, 50 plus years later. I'm just wondering if you were writing a book about the Six Days of War today, the things that you wrote in that book, are they still true? Have some things changed? How would you characterize Israel in terms of its development? If you were writing a history of Israel right now, obviously David Ben-Gurion the origination of Israel, the help from Harry Truman, et cetera, the Six Day of War, the Yom Kippur war and where we are today. How would you weave the whole history for us today?
Michael Oren: (24:38)
The Six Day of War was instrumental in setting the map of the middle East. It represented the high watermark of secular Arab nationalism and ushered in the era of Islamic extremism, which has proved to be so profound in shaping the [inaudible 00:24:56] in recent years, the ISIS is a direct result of that. It bent the slow decay, the slow decline of Egypt as the ultimate regional power. And we've seen how that's played out. And the six day of war brought the Russians into the middle East very deeply. And we've seen that the Russians aren't leading so fast. The question is how long America is going to stay around now`. Six war gave birth to the US Israel strategic relationship, which I talked about earlier. It did not exist.
Michael Oren: (25:26)
Israel fought that war without a single American bullet. We had French arms then, no Americans. Amazing. And the [inaudible 00:25:33] brought to the fore, I think the ability to make peace because Israel had what to trade for peace, the territory for peace. It proved to the Arab world that even with all the Arab armies masked on our borders, they weren't going to destroy us. They're going to have to somehow come to grips with the reality, and that has happened.
Michael Oren: (25:51)
And interestingly enough, the six day war provided the opportunity for peace with the Palestinians. And these are the counter intuitive interpretation of the war, because you have to go back to [inaudible 00:26:05] was Anthony, no one talked about Palestinian statehood, no one talked about the Palestinian people back then. It was the Arabs versus Israel, not the Palestinians. And the fact that the Palestinians now have an in Kuwait government, in the West bank, Palestinian authority exercises a certain degree of autonomy. It has elections if they ever wanted to hold them, provides the possibility, the possibility I stress, for the realization of some type of Palestinian autonomy. And still after all we've been [inaudible 00:26:37].
Anthony Scaramucci: (26:39)
John, I'm going to turn it over to you. I'm going to let you ask some of these questions that have come in from our audience. Ambassador, this has been incredibly enjoyable for me. It's now going to get painful for me. It's now going to get painful for me as Darsie out shines me, but it's okay. Go ahead, John. I'm ready. I'm ready.
John Darsie: (26:55)
Everyone loves your shtick.
Michael Oren: (26:57)
Hi John.
John Darsie: (26:58)
Ambassador Oren, I want to talk about what you alluded to earlier is that the United States is turning inward and we're having to focus more on policing ourselves. And we are policing the rest of the world. You're an American and you were an American citizen, but as someone who lives outside of the United States and view things through that lens, how does the rest of the world view the current unrest and divisions that exist in the United States?
Michael Oren: (27:24)
With growing sadness and concern. And [inaudible 00:27:30] world, we used to be called the free world. Remember that term, does it sound antiquated today to your generation? That was predicated on America's willingness and ability to project power. When I was a young paratrooper participating in the battle for Beirut in 1982, we in the Israeli army, we knew if we got into a scrap that the president Reagan would sending the marines and get us out. And that's just what he did. They sent the battleship New Jersey. When it was battleships back then. The president Bush in 2003, back in 1991 earlier, in the first Iraq war United States sent armies of 500,000 men to the middle East. That's not going to happen now.
Michael Oren: (28:15)
And so for those of us, for whom we view our security is very much attached to that possibility, that ability, that willingness of the United States to project power, this was a sea change for us. And we've had to do some scrambling. We mentioned the Abraham [inaudible 00:28:32] on one level by a common recognition that we cannot rely on the United States the way we used to rely on the United States. America is still our ultimate ally, still shares our values, still has a strategic Alliance with us. But again, the Marines aren't coming that fast, true?
John Darsie: (28:47)
Right.
Michael Oren: (28:47)
And that's a big difference, especially since we got the Russians. I did a lot of missions abroad during my term in office. I went to a mission to the Baltic countries, and they would complain that they had the Russian army two kilometers away from them. I said, "Guys, I got, I got the Russian army 20 meters away. What are you talking about? You think you've got problems." So that's our reality here.
John Darsie: (29:13)
In general, are you a believer in this idea of peace through strength? There's a lot of people who believe that appeasement in areas like the middle East and around the world, if you pull back and you create that vacuum of power, your ability to be the hedge Amman that dictates global peace receives, are you a believer in that philosophy?
Michael Oren: (29:32)
Apparently it's true. I read an article recently in national interest that actually is told us that the end of engagement and talked about how engagement has become the sacred notion almost engagement at every cost. But if you look historically and I'm going back to ancient history, engagement almost never works. Unless it's backed up by significant force, then it works. And we have to be extremely cautious about this. Every country, by the way. And it's the right and the last Republicans and Democrats, everyone's falling into this. We engaged with Yasser Arafat thinking that by engaging with him. He was going to become a peacemaker.
Michael Oren: (30:10)
And he remained to this dying day, a terrorist that died in the world, terrorist. It wasn't going to happen. And we paid very big prices for this. Now that doesn't mean, I don't believe in diplomacy. Diplomacy is a great tool but it's got to be backed up by more than just goodwill.
John Darsie: (30:27)
Anthony asked you the question earlier about what advice you would give to president elect Biden on restoring trust with Israel and in the region after what you believe was the mist up of the Iran deal. What are your expectations for what the, Biden administration is going to look like in terms of its approach to middle East peace and relations throughout the middle East secretary of state, Anthony Blinken is very influential and Biden administration's foreign policy. So what do you expect from the Biden administration in that regard?
Michael Oren: (31:00)
Well, I've been privileged to know all the people now that he has appointed. Bill Burns now is the head of the CIA. The deputy secretary of state, as well as the secretary of state, the deputy national security advisor, as well as security [inaudible 00:31:11]. And I will tell you that every single one of them to the person is deeply committed to the US Israel Alliance and committed to Israel security. Now, again, I'll say that doesn't mean we have disagreements. We're going to have disagreements about the Iran deal, particularly the Iran deal. We will have disagreements about the Palestinian issue, which is not going to be that pressing as it was during the Obama years. I think that the president elect Biden is less ideologically than Obama was on that issue, but we will have disagreements about it.
Michael Oren: (31:40)
And a lot of it depends on what the Palestinians decided to do. If the Palestinian decides to rejoin negotiations, then we'll be put in a possibly more combustible relationship with this administration. But generally speaking, I don't see any major policy changes in terms of projecting power. There'll be a tremendous aversion to getting embroiled again in any middle Eastern fight, any overseas, engagement militarily. And I think this administration is going to have its hands more than full, with what's going on in the United States.
Michael Oren: (32:17)
Beginning with the COVID crisis, the economic crisis, political polarization, and potentially even outbreaks of violence in the United States. People aren't going to be thinking about the middle East first and foremost, and maybe not even in a tertiary fashion.
John Darsie: (32:30)
So let's talk about Israel's response to the pandemic, which you alluded to, which I think generally has been very good. And especially the vaccine rollout you mentioned, I think before we went live that you're getting your second vaccination in the coming days, maybe even tomorrow. What's been the key to Israel's response to the pandemic that we can learn from here in the United States, as well as the, efficient rollout of the vaccine.
Michael Oren: (32:55)
So now here's the bad news and the good ones. Let me start with the bad news. Today we, we passed the 10,000 positive rate on the testing is very, very high by any international standards. We have three populations here who are resistant to suggestions that they should wear mask and [crosstalk 00:33:16] Jewish population. They're not giving up on their weddings and their funerals and their tourist study during the day. And our population is not giving up on his weddings, these huge weddings.
Michael Oren: (33:29)
And [inaudible 00:33:30] and if you were here on the beach, you'd be out there with thousands of young people on the beach. In America wearing a mask is kind of a political statement. It says whether you're liberal or conservative. Here, it's a social statement. If you're wearing a mask, if you're not cool, you're an old guy like me. Young guy like you'd be out there without a mask because it's uncool. That's been difficult. And we've had to now go into our third and a half lockdown, which is very difficult. We are a country that is, again, a family country is. Israel has the highest natural birth rate of any country in the modernized world.
Michael Oren: (34:06)
Something between three and five kids per family. And if you're a working couple, couples work here with three to five kids at home eat is really difficult, very difficult. Our economy is taking a huge hit, the highest [inaudible 00:34:18] in our history. A $50 billion deficit was very high for us. That's all the bad news. The good news is that we are a small country. We are all on a computerized health system. We all carry a card that tells every doctor, every hospital, exactly all the medications we've received. So we're a closed laboratory.
Michael Oren: (34:38)
And the makers of these vaccines, Pfizer's Madonna understand that if they want to see the impact of the vaccines on a closed environment, this is the place [inaudible 00:34:48]. So we moved very fast, credibly done to the prime minister and now we moved very fast on the front, every night to the CEOs of these countries. And he believes that by the middle of March, we will be completely vaccinated. We will be the first country on earth to be completely vaccinated. Again, I'm going from my vaccination tomorrow, my second one. It's done so well, John, I can't tell you go in there. It's clean, it's respectful. It's all computerized. You get updates on your text messages all the time.
Michael Oren: (35:15)
They want to know how you're do it. They're reminding you well. It's pretty amazing in that way. We also have one advantage is that the United States doesn't have, and this gets into somewhat sensitive area. And that is, our personal privacy laws are less rigorous than yours. Now, the founding fathers, God blessed them, they dispersed power. There's president, there's federal power, state power, local power, municipal power. And it's very difficult to get a united policy around that, but the other thing also were very fearful of threats to American Liberty. So they put in all these checks against people might threaten liberty, but we didn't go through that process.
Michael Oren: (35:56)
So we have our equivalent to the FBI has a tracing system, which wouldn't be acceptable in the United States. But if I pass somebody in a grocery store was tested positive for COVID, I'm going to get a message that's going to put me in isolation for nine days right there. And by the way, I was in isolation when I flew back from my father's illness. Israeli [inaudible 00:36:19] every day, twice a day, the Israeli police called me. "Hi, Israeli police here, are you in isolation? Just checking up on you." Like that, literally. So if I walked out of my room, believe me, someone's going to know it. And I pay a very big, fine.
John Darsie: (36:39)
It's a double-edged sword for sure. We obviously love our freedoms that we have in this country, but, in the middle of a pandemic, it becomes a little bit difficult. when people use mask wearing and social distancing as a political statement, as you mentioned. I want to leave you with one more question and your immense wisdom. You understand how to diffuse, extremism and live in an area of the world that it's always precarious. And in the United States, as we talked about earlier, we are seeing a rise in extremism. We saw the disgusting events that took place at the Capitol.
John Darsie: (37:12)
A few days ago, you have people with really extreme ideologies. I think a lot of people saw the image of a man with a camp Auschwitz shirt, which was obviously disgusting. How do you think if you were giving advice to domestic leaders in the United States, how do we diffuse this rise in extremism and these extreme divisions that we're seeing in the country without, talking down to people. You had 74 million people who voted for president Trump and many of which still believe he's doing the right things. So how do we solve some of these divisions that we're seeing in the County?
Michael Oren: (37:47)
But to me, there's only one way. And we do it here. We ourselves don't do it enough john. And that has to be for the dialogue. I'm also a writer, I write for American publications. And what all of us in our community of writers realizes is that what has died in the United States has been discourse is the ability to talk to one another. There used to be even publications where if you had a good idea, it didn't matter if it was right or left, you could publish in that magazine, you were judged on the quality of the idea and not on its political orientation. That has been lost. And what there has to be a national reconciling and introspection and effort map provide forums for people from different perspectives to meet on a mutually respectful basis. And I think of any other way to do this.
Michael Oren: (38:37)
And have we watched that polarization deepen literally in front of my eyes in Congress during the years in which I was Washington. Once upon time congressmen from both sides of the aisle, they'd played cards, they go drinking together, they played basketball, they lived in the same boarding houses. It doesn't exist anymore. It doesn't exist anymore. It's so sad to me, that was the strength of America. That ability. It might distinguish colleagues from across the aisle on [crosstalk 00:39:01]. You don't see that anymore. You have to restore the civility. What people didn't understand in Israel, and I don't know if they understand it in America that much anymore, is that the civility wasn't just being polite.
Michael Oren: (39:16)
Civility was a foundational idea for our society for a civilization, was the way that people from different walks of life and different outlets could coexist. And that was part of America's great strength. And part of America's weakness that we're witnessing in the world is because [inaudible 00:39:34]. And so I think speaking as Israeli, we have a profound national interest in the restoration of American stability. Please start talking [inaudible 00:39:42].
John Darsie: (39:43)
Yeah. And it's a beautiful part of Israel that a lot of people, I think misunderstand is that you do have a lot of cultures, like you mentioned that do co-exist in harmony that have different viewpoints on religion and social issues. And you guys live together in harmony and in a beautiful culture. We have a lot to learn from you guys over there. Ambassador Michael Oren, thank you so much for joining us here on SALT Talks. Anthony, do you have a final word for the ambassador before we let him go?
Michael Oren: (40:08)
Thank you, John. Thank you.
Anthony Scaramucci: (40:09)
Well, I would say next year in Jerusalem to ambassador because that's where I want to be hopefully next year. Maybe even sooner than that. We have our SALT conference coming up, hopefully in the middle East and as a result of the Abraham Accords, I'm hoping that you will be present there. We can meet with you live on stage, discuss all these great things that are happening.
Michael Oren: (40:31)
Great [inaudible 00:40:32]. Thank you so much guys, for hosting me. Be well, be healthy. And get vaccinated.
Anthony Scaramucci: (40:39)
Wish you the best. If I could get it, I would, I just have to wait on line right now. But as soon as they allow me to have it here. [crosstalk 00:40:46] I'm taking it.
Michael Oren: (40:47)
We'll [inaudible 00:40:47] on here.
Anthony Scaramucci: (40:49)
All right. Thanks, sir.
Michael Oren: (40:51)
Take care everybody. Be well. Thanks for having me. Bye.
John Darsie: (40:54)
And thank you everybody who tuned into today's SALT Talk with ambassador Michael Oren. Just a reminder, you can sign up for all of our future SALT Talks at salt.org/talks. And you can access our entire archive of SALT Talks at salt.org/talks/archive. Please follow us on YouTube. We're broadcasting all of these episodes of SALT Talks on our YouTube channel. Our followership is growing quickly on YouTube. We're very excited about that.
John Darsie: (41:20)
So please follow us on YouTube and please follow us on social media. We air these on Twitter via Periscope as well. So please follow us there and please also follow us on Facebook, Instagram, and LinkedIn. If you're on those channels. Please tell your friends about SALT Talks. We love growing our community. We've been able to grow awareness of SALTs in all these discussions that we have during the pandemic and the lockdown as we've had to postpone our conferences.
John Darsie: (41:42)
So that's been extremely gratifying. So please continue to spread the word if you find these interviews interesting. On behalf of the entire SALT team, this is John Darsie signing off for today. We'll see you back here again tomorrow on SALT Talks.