S1 | Venture Capital

Seke Ballard: Investing in the Cannabis Industry | SALT Talks #70

“If you can't get the loan to purchase that starter home, or if you can't get the working capital loan to grow your business, then your ability to grow wealth over time is undermined for that reason.”

Seke Ballard is the Founder & CEO of Good Tree Capital, a financial technology firm that grants loans to vetted, licensed cannabis companies. After graduating from the University of North Carolina, Seke spent two years as a Peace Corps Volunteer working with small businesses in the Republic of Georgia. After leaving the Peace Corps, Seke earned his MBA from Harvard University and subsequently spent years working for Procter & Gamble and Amazon. In 2015, Seke started Good Tree Capital, based upon his proprietary loan algorithm and with a goal of balancing available economic opportunities for qualified borrowers.

When Ballard’s father went to banks seeking a loan in order to expand his local logging business, he was rejected by every bank, not because of the business fundamentals but because of the color of his skin. This motivated a desire to develop a more equitable model of evaluating applicants to remove the biases that have existed. “The people who are ultimately declared to be credit worthy (using this new model), which are the people who ultimately receive the financing they start to look a lot more like society at large.”

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SPEAKER

Seke Ballard.jpeg

Seke Ballard

Founder & CEO

Good Tree Capital

MODERATOR

anthony_scaramucci.jpeg

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

Joe Eletto: (00:07)
Hello everyone. Welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is Joe Eletto and I'm the Production Manager of SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform encompassing finance, technology, and politics. SALT Talks is a series of digital interviews with the world's foremost investors, creators and thinkers. And just as we do at our Global SALT Conferences, we aim to both empower big, important ideas and provide our audience a window into the minds of subject matter experts.

Joe Eletto: (00:35)
And we're very excited today to welcome Seke Ballard to SALT Talks. Seke is the Founder & Chief Executive Officer of Good Tree Capital. A financial technology firm that grants loans to vetted, licensed cannabis companies. After graduating from the University of North Carolina, Seke spent two years as a Peace Corps volunteer. Working with small businesses in the Republic of Georgia. During his time in Georgia, Seke became passionate about the role of capital and the creation of wealth and economic development.

Joe Eletto: (01:03)
After leaving the peace Corps, Seke earned his MBA from Harvard University and subsequently spent years working for Procter & Gamble and Amazon. In 2015, Seke founded Good Tree Capital with a goal of balancing available economic opportunities for qualified borrowers. Moderating today's interview is Sarah Kunst, who actually just had her SALT Talk last week with Anthony. Sarah is the Managing Director of Cleo Capital. Sarah founded LA Dodgers backed Proday, and has served as a senior advisor at Bumble where she focused on their corporate VC arm Bumble Fund.

Joe Eletto: (01:38)
Sarah has been named a future innovator by Vanity Fair, Forbes Magazine 30 under 30 and a top 25 innovator in tech by Cool Hunting. She has been recognized for her work by Business insider as a 30 under 30 Woman in Tech and Top African-American in Tech & Pitchbook Top Black VC To Watch. She's also honored as a top woman in STEM, by Create & Cultivate and Marie Claire Magazine named her a Young Gun to watch. Marc Andreessen named her one of his 55 Unknown Rock Stars in Tech. If you have any questions for Seke during today's talk, please enter them in the Q&A box at the bottom of your video screen and now I will turn it over to Sarah to conduct today's interview.

Sarah Kunst: (02:18)
Thank you. Thanks Joe. I'm so excited to be back here and to be talking with Seke about all things, wealth creation, debt, the economy, and my favorite coping mechanism besides wine during COVID, weed. So, with that Seke, why don't you, we just heard your background which is amazing, but why don't you kind of give it to us in your own words, how you ended up starting your company?

Seke Ballard: (02:46)
Absolutely. I'm a product of rural North Carolina. My hometown has a population of 800 people, and I came from a huge family. And I always looked up to my sister who was kind of a boss when we were growing up. She was MVP of her high school basketball team three years in a row which is crazy to me. It's like you come on as a freshmen and then sophomore year you're just beating on all these people. And while she's doing that, she also graduated valedictorian. So it's like what's not to love. And so, she went to Governor's School, I went to Governor's School, she went to University of North Carolina, I went to University of North Carolina, and that's pretty much where our paths diverged. From there as Joe mentioned in the introduction I joined the Peace Corps and the Republic of Georgia.

Seke Ballard: (03:45)
And for those who are as geographically challenged as I am, Georgia's sandwiched between Russia and Turkey with the Black Sea to the West. And I was stationed in this place called Batumi. Which I might get beat up for this analogy but Batumi is like the Miami of the former Soviet Union. Which is pretty cool place to be. And while I was there, I convinced the organization that I was working in to do this idea that I pitched them that was really a rip from something that I learned in college the Carolina Challenge but we called it the Batumi Challenge. And really what we did was we went out into the community and we prospect it for great companies.

Seke Ballard: (04:37)
So we were in the bazaars talking about entrepreneurs and really getting a sense of who the highest potential companies were and then we gave the money. And when we saw that money come back to us, it really sparked this curiosity around. What does it mean to find the most efficient, most profitable destinations for capital? Deploy that capital and then see the wealth that's created at the place where you've deployed it as well as when it's returned to the investor.

Seke Ballard: (05:13)
And so we ended up scaling that to Armenia and Azerbaijan but I was really interested in how I scale it to be much larger than that. Because to me this is one of the fundamentals of capitalism. And so to answer that question and lots of other questions, I went to Harvard to earn my MBA and it was a phenomenal experience. And really taught me how to structure my thinkings around these systems that are in place to suss out where those best opportunities are both on the debt side and the equity side. And after about five years in Corporate America most recently at Amazon I started my company. And yeah, I guess I would say the rest is history from there.

Sarah Kunst: (06:09)
I love it. So tell me the Miami of the former USSR. The mind really actually boggles at that one. Intresting, no more questions about that one later. Amazing background wild backstory I actually, fun fact right after this, am sitting in and doing a HBS Harvard Business School class around VC and PE and the lack of diversity. And so, I will be in your old stomping grounds virtually soon.

Sarah Kunst: (06:47)
But can we talk a little bit about just the fundamental importance Of enroll like access to capital as a means of wealth creation, economic growth, the way that we buy nice things, like why does money matter? Tell a bunch of people who probably like me are totally money obsessed.

Seke Ballard: (07:07)
Right. I mean, it's the lifeblood. It really is. When money freezes up economies collapsed. We saw that during the great recession and the way I structure it in my mind, you've got capital up here and one column of that is debt, and the other column of that is equity. My corner of the sandbox what I've spent the last five years of my life really working on is on the debt side of the equation.

Seke Ballard: (07:32)
But when I think about the fundamental sort of any efficiencies in terms of how capital is deployed, I think the same fundamental problems exist in both except they manifest themselves in different ways. I'll touch on equity really quickly before we go to debt. One of the most interesting statistics I've heard is around where capital goes in equity. So you got private equity under that, you've got venture capital firms, you've got these investment banks, that they represent a pretty diverse source of capital. But if we narrow in on one part of that which is venture capital, this is your world so I know a whole lot less about it. But if we narrow in on venture capital, 98% of all the billions sloshing around in venture capital go to men. Which to me is really interesting because what it says is-

Sarah Kunst: (08:26)
Sorry. Just clarifying a point, but what color are those men?

Seke Ballard: (08:31)
They are white men.

Sarah Kunst: (08:32)
Just say that.

Seke Ballard: (08:36)
Yeah. And I was going to touch on that. But when I think about it what it really says that the inverse of that is you've got 10 companies in front of you. And instead of reviewing all 10 of those companies you're really myopically focused on half of them and really missing the opportunities that the other half might present to you. And then if you put that to the side, another really awe-inspiring statistic is that 80-90% of all returns in venture capital accrue to the top 20 firms. There must be hundreds maybe thousands of venture capital firms, family offices out there. Half of them, they ought to return more than one X what their limited partners invested with them. And so what that tells me is that the existing model is clearly not serving investors.

Seke Ballard: (09:28)
And to me, it almost represents a breach of their fiduciary responsibility to their limited partners that they've really taken this siloed approach to investing rather than expanding the aperture of deal flow to really taking in half the population which is women taking in 30% of the population which is people of color to your earlier point. And maybe, just maybe when you look at everybody you might make your LP some money. And so, I am really encouraged by the constellation of venture capital firms such as, Cleo Capital, such as Harlem Capital, such as Backstage Capital. That's really trying to serve this underserved market. And my hope is that one day you all are eating these bigger guys lunch. But yeah, I really see the fundamental problem existing in both debt and equity and I love what's going on in equity and I'm sort of working in my corner of the sandbox to figure this problem out on the debt side as well.

Sarah Kunst: (10:35)
Awesome. And so, talk to us a little bit about ... we think we have a general idea of how it's working in private markets, venture PE, you give money to more diverse managers and they invest in more diverse companies, and that's sort of the flywheel public markets with the push towards more diverse boards and more diverse company leadership. That's also starting to happen. But debt feels like, and that sort of trickles down into hedge funds as well or up hopefully, but debt is like this other area.

Sarah Kunst: (11:11)
So what does debt kind of currently look like? And what are some of the ways broadly maybe, and then we'll zoom in a little bit more to you specifically. But what are some of the ways broadly that change can happen using debt capital, both everything from individual loans, all the way up to the big huge providers of debt. How does that start to change? And what does that look like right now?

Seke Ballard: (11:35)
So I'll answer this question with an experience. Back in 2015, and this was actually the catalyst to me starting my business. A guy named Dylan Roof, went into Mother Emanuel AME in Charleston, South Carolina, and sat for Bible Study for an hour before opening fire on the nine people who were in attendance killing them all. My mother's side of the family, they traced their roots to Charleston. So this is pretty close to home for us. And so my dad thought it'd be a good idea if we took a road trip to pay our respects to the victims and during the drive, I guess I would say just grounded by the gravity of the moment the question that I asked him was, "How did we end up here?" To me it felt very regressive, it felt as a country we were taking steps backward not forward.

Seke Ballard: (12:32)
And his answer to that was really interesting. He said, "Seeking any marginalized group of people in America, can't as a matter of pragmatism, expect to sustain social and political advances, unless those social and political advances are built on a firm economic footing." And he used his own sort of experience and as a case in point. So when I was a kid he owned a logging company and people would pay him to clear commercial residential property, he take that lumber sell it to the local paper mill, and he had your quintessential American, small business, very successful. And he wanted to expand outside of North Carolina to surrounding States but in order to do that, he had to modernize his equipment. And so he went to all these banks in the area applying for loans to modernize his equipment, and he was rejected by every single bank for every single loan.

Seke Ballard: (13:32)
And his hypothesis was that this didn't have anything to do with the merit of his business but instead of had everything that you want the color of the skin. And it's very well known that there are two primary ways of building wealth in America. It's either through home ownership or enterprise, small business ownership. If you can't get the loan to purchase that starter home, or if you can't get the working capital loan to grow your business, then your ability to grow wealth over time is undermined for that reason. And so I went back to Seattle, I was employed at Amazon at the time. And I did some research and found that he's exactly right.

Seke Ballard: (14:12)
The federal reserve bank of Boston has some pretty excellent analysis on this question but if I go into a bank Sarah, and a white guy goes into a bank and we are exactly the same from a balance sheet perspective. So same assets, same cash, same money coming in, same debt levels, we're literally the same person on paper. We were only controlling for my race. If we apply for a small business loan, I'm two point seven times more likely to be rejected for that loan.

Seke Ballard: (14:42)
And if I'm fortunate enough to be approved for that loan, I'm going to pay on average 180 basis points more interest. And this is true not just for small business lending, it's true for mortgages, personal loans, car loans, and it's also true for women to a slightly lower degree. And so the root cause of this problem which gets at the heart of what we do, the root cause of this problem is that when my dad, or when Sally goes into that bank to apply for the loan they're sitting across the table from a loan officer who's bringing to that encounter all of his conscious and subconscious biases.

Seke Ballard: (15:17)
So they're not just looking at my dad on paper and evaluating from based on that. They're also judging the way he speaks English or the way he dresses because he looks like a trucker. And then they make decisions based off of subjective information that really has no bearing on whether that person my father, or the woman sitting across the table from them are going to service the loan.

Seke Ballard: (15:39)
And so our critical insight was what happens when you remove the human from the equation and you replace that human, that loan officer with a model that is evaluating credit worthiness based exclusively on observable financial and operating performance data about the company. And then once you use this data to make the decision then really the playing field levels out a lot. And the people who are ultimately declared to be credit worthy, which are the people who ultimately receive the financing they start to look a lot more like society at large. And so my work for the last five years has really been built around building that capability and evaluating credit worthiness and then deploying that capability specifically in cannabis for now.

Sarah Kunst: (16:35)
Cool. Kind of reminds me of in Pretty Woman, where Julia Roberts goes back in and it's like, "Do you work on commission? Big mistake."

Seke Ballard: (16:41)
Big mistake.

Sarah Kunst: (16:46)
That's the reality. Judging people based on what they look like before you know. It's not even the content of their character let's be real, it's the content of their pocket books. You really want to make sure who has money and this is a totally different world. But even in the tech world, the average tech billionaire Jeff Bezos before the blow-up did not look like he was about to be the richest man in the world Right? Big mistake. So you never know who those people are.

Sarah Kunst: (17:14)
So, let's talk a little bit about the current state of banking. It feels like the banking world has just absolutely, I feel I'm having flashbacks since 2008 like level craziness. Like Wells Fargo seems they can't go more than three seconds with a new CEO before everything hits the fan again, I don't know what they did in the past life, but their karma is nasty.

Seke Ballard: (17:45)
They're are criminals. I always believe that.

Sarah Kunst: (17:46)
Okay, that's what they did in their past life. It's not just that, bank closures, litigation, walk us through what in the world is happening in banking right now?

Seke Ballard: (17:57)
Yeah. So I think about banking from a macro perspective. And it is one of those industries that's really ripe for disruption and a big part of why I think it's ripe for disruption is because their operating models really rely heavily on these extensive network of brick and mortar branches that are full of humans that are staffing it. Whether those humans are tellers or whether those humans are loan officers seeing people like my father and Sally. And I think what's going on is that they're struggling to adapt to how modern consumers consume financial services. I was with a borrower in Massachusetts, and we had to go into Wells Fargo in rural Central Massachusetts. And I sat there for maybe three, four hours and didn't see a single person coming into the bank the entire time I was there.

Seke Ballard: (19:00)
And obviously I'm projecting this experience generally but to me that was the canary in the coal mine. It saying, "If banks don't adapt and bring technology as sort of central to how they deliver their financial services, I don't believe they're going to survive in the long-term." And personally my view is that technology is the answer to what I view as systemic bias and the provision of financial services. And specifically what I do is really focused on the debt side of the equation. And so if you've got these massive banks like, Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, all the way down to your regional local banks, Coastal Carolina Bank of North Carolina, I think you're seeing varying degrees of this struggle to adapt. And so, my view is that similar to on the venture capital side, I mentioned backstage capital, I mentioned Cleo.

Seke Ballard: (20:02)
I see the same thing happening on the debt side of the equation as well. we've got companies like; LendingClub, Funding Circle, that are really bringing technology to bear to create this digitally native experience for their customers. LendingClub, up to very recently was only a lender. They recently acquired a bank. So they've obviously got ambitions to be able to provide a broader array of financial services to people but do it in a way that is central digital and driven by technology. And so macro-level this to me seems to be a trend that is unavoidable and those who are building those technological models today, I think are going to be the ones who are providing the majority of financial services to clients in the future.

Sarah Kunst: (20:52)
Yeah. That I totally agree with you. So the last point I we'll touch on with the traditional banking piece, you always telling me the story in our prep call and I was sitting once with the household name billionaire who's a massive land [inaudible 00:21:11] billionaire pledged the whole thing. And somehow they'd grown up in the South, like in the 60's and somehow the topic of redlining came up. And they looked at me and said, "Sarah, what's redlining?" And I basically had an out of body experience because I was like, you have a 1,000 people who work for you they like tell you about issues. And so just in case we have any other billionaires in the audience who might need a quick refresher talk to us a little bit about, you touched on this earlier home ownership. But redlining, what is it? What does it mean and what has it meant for wealth creation particularly around racial lines?

Seke Ballard: (21:47)
Absolutely. So I am joining you all from the South side of Chicago. I live in Bronzeville and Chicago was one of the epicenters across the nation for redlining. And what it meant here was that you would have banks providers of capital literally draw red lines around majority black communities. And within those red lines they wouldn't make loans. And this is at a time when the federal government is providing all kinds of backing to banks to encourage the creation of the middle-class. And so when you had these communities that were as a matter of policy, both public policy and lending policies at banks across the nation as being excluded from where they would target their investments, then what you started to see was a sort of a cynical cycle.

Seke Ballard: (22:45)
These communities weren't able to get the financing that they needed. Then that meant that their property values went down, it meant that they weren't able to build and sustain their businesses over time. And so if you just sort of play this out over the long-term what you start to see are failing communities. What we start to see is a lack of investment in human potential. And it's driven by racism rather than by anything related to merit at all. And so I think that was a strategic error on the part of the country. I thought it was and I continue to think it's a strategic area on the part of finance years still to this day.

Seke Ballard: (23:35)
Apple as an example is under investigation by the state of New York for charging equally qualified women, higher interest rates and approving them for less and loans than quiet comparable ment. And this is, their credit card is backed by Goldman Sachs and so this is one of the most technologically sophisticated companies on the planet, partnering with one of the most prominent banks on the planet and they can't get it right. And so you just have this sense that this is one of those enduring legacies of red lining and our general approach to the provision of financial services. And if we don't correct for it then I just view it as a massive loss of human potential to be completely Frank.

Sarah Kunst: (24:30)
A massive loss of money as well. Let's be honest about what we care about here. Remind me and we're going to go into a product discussion, but remind me a little bit of we were talking about this. This summer, I watched it was called Mrs. America or whatever it's a Netflix show about Phylis Schlafly, and [inaudible 00:24:52] and good show if you're bored watch it but more importantly, more relevantly, I was shocked to hear that until like the 60s or 70s it didn't matter how rich you are as a woman. You could literally be the heir to every fortune or the heiress, and you couldn't buy your own house or you couldn't get credit cards in your own name. So walk us through a little bit of that just to like really square the circle of how deeply, deeply F some of this history has been in the very recent past. And then we'll kind of move through where we think we're going and what you guys are doing to fix it.

Seke Ballard: (25:26)
Absolutely. This to me is again one of the macro things that just doesn't make sense. Women are half the population and there was a time in history when the role of a woman had a fence around it and that fence was really the household. And so to me what that's communicating to half of the potential workforces we don't want to use you at all. It's like leaving half your starting team on the bench it just doesn't make sense. And so, you referenced that it was a time when women couldn't get credit cards in their own name, it was a time when they couldn't use capital to purchase homes or whatever sorts of assets they were interested in purchasing. And so I think as we've evolved in the right direction, not fast enough to where you have more capital going to certain demographics of people, we're able to see that human potential really start to contribute both to the micro economy in their families, in their communities and bubbles all the way up to the macro economy.

Seke Ballard: (26:31)
When women started entering the workforce, you saw this massive boon in GDP. Wonder where that came from. Well, it came from us not ignoring half of our workforce. And so, you mentioned this earlier this is a money problem. It's less about let's be diverse, it's less about let's give people a hand up, it's more about doing your job, it's more about generating returns for your shareholders and your limited partners. And so yeah. I'm again, I'm encouraged by where things are going. Never have we been in a moment in American history, I don't think where we've had more permission to think big about where things can go from here.

Seke Ballard: (27:20)
COVID was basically a wrecking ball to the economy, it was a wrecking ball to people's day-to-day lives and when we rebuild from that, we don't have to do it the way we used to it can be done in a way that's very different. And when you've got all these banks that are provisioning billions for losses in their loan portfolio, yeah. That opportunity is really there.

Sarah Kunst: (27:42)
I love it. It reminds me of in the immortal words of the very controversial Kanye West, "I'm racist and that I only liked green faces." Like what we're talking about is, diversity, gender, all these things. But what it all rolls up into is when you're only focused on investing in 30% of the population, that means you're leaving 70% of the profits on the table. And I don't know about you, but that's a lot of money to not have in my pocket because yachts do not buy themselves.

Seke Ballard: (28:10)
Right

Sarah Kunst: (28:11)
So I agree. So here's the problem you diagnosed it brilliantly and very, very thoroughly. So what is Good Tree Capital's role in fixing all of this? I always fix my life. What are you doing? How are you fixing it?

Seke Ballard: (28:27)
Not on my watch. I mentioned I had this experience with my father and I go back to Seattle do all of this research. And when I come to this realization of how the market is structured, I sit down with some data scientist developer colleagues of mine, and the question that I pose to them was, "How can we accurately evaluate credit worthiness without using the factors that typically biased decision-making that have no predictive quality?" And so we spent about a year and a half answering that question. We started by filing a foyer with a Small Business Administration and asked them for records on every loan that they'd backed since the year 2000. And that produced about 1.2 million records that they sent us on a CD-ROM thank you, SBA.

Seke Ballard: (29:25)
And we enriched that data and fed it through what's called a random forest regressive analysis. And what that told us was of the over 450 factors in any given loan profile, these are the factors that are most predictive and determining whether someone is likely to default a loan and not just what those factors are, but what is their relative importance to each other? What is the weighting of each one? And once you understand that across all factors you can build a mathematical equation an algorithm. And that's what we did. And when we tested it all those years back, we learned that we could with 98.2% accuracy determine whether someone is likely to default on a loan. And so my view really at that point was that we built a bazooka and the question was, where do we aim it?

Seke Ballard: (30:18)
The initial approach was to sell this to banks. I thought to myself I've got this amazing capability it's innovating on the bulk of your business model, it's more accurate which is really important. But it's also faster and cheaper to scale. So I just thought it would be a win-win for all parties involved. But I was meeting with these banking executives here in Chicago, primarily, and really what I was trying to sell them was sort of in one ear out the other glass over eyes I just didn't find a whole lot of luck. And so my view was I was sort of at a fork in the road. I could continue trying to sell these very conservative banks. You have this long sales cycle, or I could do something different. And to me cannabis represented a really interesting opportunity unto itself.

Seke Ballard: (31:11)
It is an industry if you look nationwide across all the people who've gone through the very sort of tedious process of acquiring a license from their State, 80% of those operators who touch the plant don't have bank accounts. Which to me is insane. Billions and billions of dollars 80% of that is a sloshing around in the economy in a way that's not really trackable. And so if you think about it, if you don't have a bank account that means you also don't have access to things banks provide such as loans. And so I thought if we put our model to work in the cannabis industry, not only are we in a market that is largely underserved, so it's a ton of white space because banks are on the sideline. But cannabis represented that sort of intersectionality of the access to capital and the ability to build wealth as a result of that access to capital.

Seke Ballard: (32:06)
Let me just give you one short anecdote. If you think about the people who born the brunt of cannabis prohibition, the people who've been locked up for having a dime bag, they have a felony on their name, now they can't get a job or a house. You think about that group of people historically and then you think about the other group of people who own the licenses nationwide there's virtually no overlap between the two it's like 4% overlap actually between the two. And really what this is it's a big problem of access to capital because it's an expensive industry to be in. And so my view was if we use our technology to evaluate the most credit worthy entrepreneurs and businesses in the cannabis space, then we can provide these talented entrepreneurs who are looked over by everybody else with the ability to really grow and scale their businesses and prosper in this industry.

Seke Ballard: (32:58)
And therefore take a larger chunk of what will be a massive wealth creation for this country. Think about it, think about where alcohol was prior to prohibition and where it is now that's cannabis today and we're still in day one. So I just think it's a really critical period. And we've seen with our portfolio companies just how that wealth creation mechanism works. One of my borrowers in Massachusetts, again in Massachusetts just had a big, we're about to have a big grand opening. And it's just a signal of what is possible when you really reimagine and rethink how you evaluate credit worthiness and where capital goes.

Sarah Kunst: (33:39)
Absolutely. And before we jump into some questions, if you haven't dropped questions into the Q&A please, please do. Because we'll have a few minutes for those. But talk a little bit, you touched on this when you mentioned the guys who were in jail for dime bags. And I think for a lot of people it's a little bit hard to wrap your head around sort of how targeted the war on drugs was. And it wasn't so much a war on drugs as it was on like hippies and then just sort of flat out black people. The stark comparison that most of us have heard of although we've been, I off the top of my head, can't recall it maybe you can, is sort of the difference between the sentencing guidelines for crack versus Cocaine, which like is any good child of the 80's knows they're the same drug.

Seke Ballard: (34:29)
Yeah. Absolutely. You're hitting the nail on the head. It became a really big strategy under Nixon. He wanted to attack his two biggest enemies and his two biggest enemies were hippies and black people in his own mind. And in order to do that he thought let me crack down on cannabis, let me focus enforcement and communities of color. And so what you ended up with was really a sort of a reality nationwide where although African-Americans consume roughly the same, slightly lower on average cannabis than white people, African-Americans nationwide are four times more likely to be arrested for it. And then once arrested for it more likely to be convicted and sentenced to longer sentences. The same basic dynamic is true for crack Cocaine and Cocaine where the sentencing guidelines pre-Obama was 20 X.

Seke Ballard: (35:35)
If you were caught using coke and you know coke is a rich man's drug. If you're caught using coke which is the same exact chemically drug as crack Cocaine, you're going to get one 20th, the sentence as the person who gets caught with crack Cocaine. And so you see these kinds of imbalances and how the laws are enforced where the laws are enforced, and then what downstream impacts that has on the ability of these communities to become self-sustaining, to become economically vibrant. Again it just feels like we're shooting ourselves in the foot with these poor policy decisions.

Sarah Kunst: (36:16)
Yeah. This was not an endorsement of doing the Cocaine or crack Cocaine. We're just pointing out the disparities.

Seke Ballard: (36:21)
Exactly.

Sarah Kunst: (36:23)
And then Joe, do you want to conduct the questions?

Joe Eletto: (36:27)
Absolutely. [crosstalk 00:36:27].

Sarah Kunst: (36:30)
And then Joe do you want to jump in with some of the questions?

Joe Eletto: (36:33)
Yeah. For sure and I just wanted to again, not endorsing crack Cocaine just kidding. So we've been doing a series of cannabis talks with a partner ETF mg. And in those conversations I've been learning tremendous amount. But one of the things that came up that you started talking about was procuring a licenses for dispensary's the costs going into actually setting up one of these businesses. And the fact that the majority of them are owned by a very small amount of businesses and people. Could you elaborate a little bit more on that? And then how you see if the companies that I guess we don't need to name, but everyone knows who they are in the cannabis space. How you either work with them to get those licenses back or work with local legislatures to make sure that more licenses are able to be procured.

Seke Ballard: (37:17)
Right. So, I'll use Illinois as an example. So under the medical legalization bill that passed seven years ago I think, you had to have $2 million in Escrow if you wanted to pursue a cultivation license and you had to have half a million dollars in Escrow if you wanted to pursue a dispenser. My first question is who the hell has that kind of money? Apart from the top 1% of Illinoisans? I mean who has that kind of liquid capital? And so this is the State erecting a barrier for broad-based participation in the industry. But if you put the State aside there's sort of inherent cost to pursuing the license and standing your business irrespective of what the State does. Particularly in the application process you've got consultants, you've got lawyers, you've got security experts that are literally charging people six figures just to be able to put together an application.

Seke Ballard: (38:21)
And then once you put together that application, you've got to demonstrate that you have real estate where you're going to operate the business and often these States take anywhere from 12 to 18 months to make a decision. So you can have money going out for real estate that you've leased or purchased with nothing coming in, you shelled out six figures for all the consultants you needed to put the application together, and then you might be told no, you don't get a license. So if you're the guy on the street who's selling the dime bag and you look at that equation it just doesn't make any sense to you. But if you're some wealthy tycoon and you've got money to waste then yeah, you're going to throw some money behind trying to get a license. And so in my opinion not only do you have the structural costs you have the cost that States often erect that create really immense barriers for people's participation.

Seke Ballard: (39:16)
The way we've tried to solve this problem is both through policy advocacy as well as putting our money where our mouth are. So from a policy perspective in Illinois when Pritzker was running for governor, he made it very clear that he wanted Illinois to be the most equity centric market in the nation. Which is another way of saying he wants the people who can historically borne the brunt of prohibition to be the main benefactors of the wealth that's being created in the industry. And so when I heard this I immediately reached out to the legislators who were writing the bill. And my goal was really three part. It was one, to reduce to the earthiest extent possible, the State erected cost to enter the industry, to increase state financing of these equity licensees, and to also create an environment that is favorable for investors or banks who want to provide capital to the same crop a crop of licensees.

Seke Ballard: (40:21)
And so we had a ton of success in our advocacy at the state level. And even though Illinois and passing and executing it's bill has had some hiccups along the way. I think the trajectory is probably more successful than any state in the country in terms of creating a context that allows broad-based participation and the cannabis industry that reflects the diversity, either racial or gender diversity in the State.

Joe Eletto: (40:52)
So then and something I'll leave the conversation on it so you can dive into it as far as you like or not, but we're less than a month out from the election. What would it change in the presidency? What would a Biden presidency mean for your company's ability to operate on a more national level? In that we're talking about Illinois, we're talking State by State. Governor Cuomo, has said that he wants cannabis legalization to come in the next session for the state. But what would it mean for you to operate on a federal level and what are you sort of looking for in a new administration and for specifically for cannabis?

Seke Ballard: (41:31)
So there are two hypotheticals here either Trump wins or Biden wins. If I think about the experience of the industry under Trump's administration, it's been muddy. I think that's probably the best word to use. So coming out of the Obama administration, we had what was called the Cole memo. And this was the justice and treasury department saying, "Hey banks, if you want to capitalize this industry, provide any services. This industry just follow these principles and we won't come after you." Was essentially the message of it. Trump comes into office, Jeff sessions spends his first year in the office honoring this and then January of the second year he does an about face and he says we no longer care about that. So it kind of muddied the waters in terms of how we think about what rules to follow in order to provide services to the industry.

Seke Ballard: (42:23)
But at the same time, this is a bi-partisan industry. If you look at the SAFE Act, the SAFE Banking Act was just passed the house. It passed with overwhelming bi-partisan support. It currently has overwhelming bi-partisan support in the Senate but it's stuck in committee right now because COVID. Because there's lots of other things that are sort of happening and really taking the time and sucking all the oxygen out of the room. So it's not as though this is a starkly partisan issue where Democrats feel one way and Republicans feel another way. I just think the barrage of things that we have to deal with on a day-to-day basis whether, yeah. I want you to go on to that, that we deal on a day-to-day basis as really distracting lawmakers and the executive branch from doing their job. Under a Biden administration, I expect things would be clarified quite a bit.

Seke Ballard: (43:24)
The reason I expect things to be clarified quite a bit is because the SAFE Banking Act is championed primarily by Democrats. Even though it's got bi-partisan support, really the main sponsors and champions of the bill are on the democratic side. Joe Biden's VP Kamala, she is a co-sponsor of the Moore Act which is not just thinking about how do we increase access to financial services for the Cannabis industry. But how do we create restorative justice for those people who have criminal records for the dime bag while at the same time you got all these other people who are making billions of dollars now the industry is legal. And so the fact that she is a co-sponsor on this to me says that this is an administration that is interested in normalizing this industry, getting out of the way of the industry so that it can thrive.

Joe Eletto: (44:20)
Well Seke and Sarah, this is been fantastic. I sat back for one point just listened to the whole thing and it just, I'm going to listen back to this. There's a wealth of information here and I can't wait to share it with the rest of the SALT community. So again want to say thank you Sarah for moderating, Seke, thank you so much for joining us today. Obviously I missed the memo on having a first name with an S, but I'll figure it out. But again, thanks so much.

Morgan Housel: "The Psychology of Money" | SALT Talks #62

“Writing is the best way to crystallize the vague thoughts you have in your head.“

Morgan Housel is a partner at The Collaborative Fund, a venture capital firm focused on providing seed and early stage funding to technology companies, and a former columnist at The Motley Fool and The Wall Street Journal. He is the author of the new book, The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness.

Investors should be writing out their ideas more frequently. When you’re writing, ideas that may have seemed logical and fantastical in your mind may actually turn out to be disjointed and nonsensical. Only through the logic-inducing process of writing can investors make more sound financial decisions.

There is also no one-size-fits-all description of a successful investor. However, two principles govern their potential for success: patience and the ability to put up with uncertainty. In finance, soft skills like these often get swept under the rug because they’re immediately measurable in charts or returns.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Morgan Housel.jpeg

Morgan Housel

Partner

The Collaborative Fund

MODERATOR

anthony_scaramucci.jpeg

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie: (00:07)
Hello everyone. Welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is John Darsie. I'm the managing director of SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum at the intersection of finance, technology and public policy. And today we're intersecting all that with psychology as well and we're very excited for today's SALT talk. SALT Talks is a series of digital interviews that we launched during the work from home period, with the world's foremost investors, creators and thinkers. And what we're trying to do during these SALT Talks is replicate the type of experience that we provide at our SALT conference series. And that's really to provide a platform for what we think are big, important ideas that are shaping the future, as well as provide our audience a window into the mind of subject matter experts. And we're very excited today to welcome Morgan Housel to SALT Talks. Morgan, today is a partner at the Collaborative Fund, which is a venture capital fund, and he's a long time former columnist at The Motley Fool, as well as the Wall Street Journal.

John Darsie: (01:00)
And I personally, I know Anthony has been reading his work for years in those outlets, and it's great that he finally wrote a fantastic book to bring his work to an even larger audience. And he's the two time winner of the best in business award from the Society of American Business Writers and winner of the New York Times Sidney award, and a two-time finalist for the Gerald Loeb award for distinguished business and financial journalism. His new book, as I mentioned, is called The Psychology of Money. It came out September 8th and he's on a variety of different bestseller lists. And we were talking before we went live, we're hoping that once all the votes are counted, that his book will be on the New York Times bestseller list in short order. But it's a fantastic book, very easy to read and he distills a lot of great anecdotes down into key lessons that you can teach your children or teach yourself, whether you're an amateur investor or a professional investor, frankly, about how to be a better investor and how to put the right priorities around creating wealth.

John Darsie: (01:57)
Just a reminder, if you have any questions for Morgan during today's SALT Talk, you can enter them in the Q and A box at the bottom of your video screen. And conducting today's interview is Anthony Scaramucci, who's the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, a global alternative investment firm, as well as the chairman of SALT. And with that, we'll turn it over to Anthony for the interview. Anthony today is in the lovely Beverly Hills Hotel and not in his normal environment and so we're going to give them a very low room rating, but Anthony, go ahead and take it away.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:25)
And my head, all of a sudden didn't become 400 times the size of yours and Morgan's, but that's fine. Morgan, welcome to SALT Talks. I have to tell you that I do a lot of reading, obviously in finance and read a ton of books on finance, but your book, The Psychology of Money is by far the best one I have read about literally the psychology of money. So I've been handing it out to people, you should be very proud of your work, by the way, we think it's a phenomenal book. And so I want to get into the book in a second, but I want to talk a bit about you and how you got to where you are. So go ahead, tell our delegation about your career arc.

Morgan Housel: (03:07)
Well first, yeah, thank you for having me, Anthony, thank you for those kind thoughts about the book. How did I get here? I think like a lot of careers, it wasn't planned. I never had a plan to become a financial writer in the slightest. If you go back to my time in college, around the mid 2000's, I wanted to go into investment banking, that was all I wanted to do. My plan was A, B and C was to become an investment banker. A lot of young people in the mid 2000's wanted to do that, investment banking was the peak of financial prestige. From my view in my early '20's, that was where the money and the power was, that's what I wanted to do. I got an investment banking internship my junior year and day one and not only day one, I would say the first hour of walking in there, it was clear to me that this is not for me.

Morgan Housel: (03:48)
The culture of investment banking was such a turnoff to me. And I'm 100% for hard work, but it was not hard work, it was just a hazing atmosphere where it wasn't about your productivity or what kind of value can you add, it was just let me beat the crap out of you because someone beat the crap out of me during my career. It was so unappealing to me. So then I got a job in private equity. This was still, I was a junior in college. I got an internship and I love private equity. I thought it was great, great mix between business and finance. The culture was so much more aligned with what I wanted. And this was the summer of 2007 and then the whole global economy hit the fan.

Morgan Housel: (04:25)
And my plan was to stick around in private equity, but the firm basically said, they relied on borrowing a ton of money to make the deals work, everything froze solid, so it was, "Hey, we're not going to have a full time position for you after college." So I needed to do something else. And I had a friend who was a writer for The Motley Fool at the time and he said, "Hey, you should apply to become a Motley Fool writer, you are interested in finances. Let's do it." I had no writing background whatsoever, I'd never written anything about investing before, even though I was interested in it. And so I thought I would do that for three months or six months before I found another private equity job. And I ended up staying for 10 years and just fell in love with the process of writing.

Morgan Housel: (04:59)
I think no matter what field you're in, writing is really important because writing is not just about getting your thoughts across to other people, it's not just about communicating. Writing is the best way to crystallize the vague thoughts you have in your head. These vague ideas that you have about whatever your field is, whether it's finance or politics or anything else, you have these gut feelings, until you are forced to write them on paper, those gut feelings just float around, they're not making a lot of sense. But once you're forced to put them on the paper, you really realize that either A, your thoughts suddenly make a lot more sense than they did when they were gut feelings or B, when you put them onto paper, you realize that your thoughts look ridiculous. When they were gut feelings in your head, you could run with them and say, "This is okay." But sometimes you put them into words you say, "Ah, that makes no sense whatsoever."

Morgan Housel: (05:44)
So I fell in love with the process of writing. It was not part of the plan, I just stumbled across it haphazardly, but we're now 14 years into this. So I joined Collaborative Fund four and a half years ago. It's a venture capital private equity firm, but my sole job there is to write and speak about the intersection of investing history and behavioral finance. I like to learn about the history of how people think about risk and opportunity and greed and fear in finance and what we can learn about that for ourselves to become better investors and better with dealing with money in general.

Anthony Scaramucci: (06:15)
Well, in reading your fantastic book, and it's a great introduction to everything that we're talking about, but in reading your book, it struck me that there were two things going on. You were trying to explain to people how to become a successful investor, but then also how to develop a healthy relationship with money, which is something I'm still trying to do, frankly. I think a lot of us have that difficulty. And so let's break it up for our listeners, how do you become a successful investor Morgan?

Morgan Housel: (06:47)
Well, to me, it's different for everyone and how I invest is very different from how I know you invest, which is going to be different for everyone. So there's no one size fits all prescription. But to me, the foundation of good investing, the most common denominator across all investing strategies is two things. You need to be patient and you need to put up with uncertainty. That's it. Very simple, very basic, it's not blowing anyone's minds, but that's the common denominator. There's always a cost of admission in investing. You can do very well in markets, no matter what your strategy is, but nothing is free. Of course, nothing good in the world is free, nothing worthwhile is free, everything has a cost. And the cost of admission in investing is a combination of patience, which is where you get compounding and dealing with uncertainty and volatility, which is what markets make you put up with.

Morgan Housel: (07:29)
I think that those two things are easy to overlook and it's easy to not view them as a cost because most costs have a dollar figure on it. [inaudible 00:07:37], if you get a hotel in Los Angeles, there's a dollar figure on it. But the cost of volatility is much more nuanced. And it's very easy and intuitive, I think, in investing to view volatility and patience as a fee or pardon me, as a fine for doing something wrong, your portfolio declined 10% and you screwed up, you did something wrong. And look, for some strategies, that might be the case. But very often, if you are dealing with volatility and your portfolio declines 10%, let's just say, that's not a fine, that is a fee. It's the cost of admission for what you need to put forth, enable to do well over time.

Morgan Housel: (08:11)
So I think that's how people become good investors. It's difficult to do that because it's not necessarily analytical. We can't just summarize patience in a chart or in a formula. So people who are very analytically smart and you got your PhD from MIT, does not have any correlation with whether you're actually going to be patient. So these soft skills in finance often get swept under the rug because they're so different from how we are usually taught finance in terms of an academic field where it's something closer to physics that is governed by clean formulas and charts and data, we can measure things with precision. The softer side of investing is not necessarily there. So I think that's the common denominator of how people can become good investors. I know it's not blowing anyone's mind, but that's the point. The simplicity of these things makes easy to ignore. So I actually think when I explain these things, it is the most sophisticated and educated investors who need to be reminded of these things, that the most important things are the things that are easiest for the educated people to ignore and overlook.

Anthony Scaramucci: (09:09)
Well, I mean, you bring this up in the book and I want you to address it. There's emotion involved. The rational actors seem to do best, but it turns out that we're really not that rational, particularly when it comes to money. And if I take $10,000 of my money and I put it into a stock and it drops 25%, that may be the best time to buy it, but now I'm in a panic. And it's not like women's apparel that goes on sale at a department store or chopped meat in the supermarket. When stuff goes on sale, Morgan, people panic, and they have a tendency to sell bottoms and buy tops. So you write about it in the book, explain why people do that and explain what your recommendations are to prevent them from doing that.

Morgan Housel: (09:55)
I think it's very easy to personalize what's going on in markets, even if markets are a giant thing where tens or hundreds of millions of people are participating. It's so easy to say, "Look, if I buy it and it goes up, that's because I'm smart. And if I buy stock, it goes down, that's because I'm stupid. I made a mistake." They personalize what's going on in the market, even if the market does not know who you are, doesn't care who you are, has no correlation with the decisions that you made by and large. So I think that's largely why we do it. In a way that if we're talking about math, long division is not emotional, it's just a formula, you do it, sometimes you're wrong, but you don't get emotional about it. Whereas our personal net worth, this is not just our ability to retire and send our kids to school, this is the scorecard for how we're doing in life by and large, particularly for some people.

Morgan Housel: (10:41)
It's not necessarily going to affect your day to day wellbeing, but it's a scorecard for how you're doing and you take it personally. If your portfolio's down 20%, that means that my worth to the world, my intelligence is down 20%, is how it's typically viewed. I think to the greatest extent, back to what I was saying earlier, if you can view volatility as the cost of admission, this is the price that you are paying, if you're going to go out and buy a fancy car, there's a price to that and you know it, and you know the price is worth it because you get a nice car in return. If you can view volatility as more of a fee that is worth paying, rather than a fine, a signal that you screwed up, that to me, is the biggest way that you could move the needle towards a healthier relationship with the investing side with money.

Morgan Housel: (11:20)
And we also have to address this thing too, where money is emotional, it's not just the investing returns, it's people's relationship with money. And it doesn't matter how wealthy you are, this is true for the deca-billionaires of the world. That how satisfied you are with your money, how well you think you're doing with your money, it's just the gap between what you have and what your expectations are. And if people's expectations grow in lockstep with their net worth over time, or if their expectations grow faster than their net worth over time, it doesn't matter how wealthy you become, you're always going to feel like you're running on a treadmill. That too, I don't think will blow anyone's mind, but it's the most pervasive issue with money that we have over time.

Morgan Housel: (11:57)
Look, if you were to look at the average median American, the median American's income adjusted for inflation has roughly doubled since the 1950s, just for inflation, median income. But we view the 1950's as the golden era of middle class prosperity, even though we are twice as rich, adjusted for inflation at the median level than we were then. I think a lot of the reason that is, is because expectations in the United States have grown faster than people's incomes. And look, there's been a lot of stagnation across middle incomes in the last 20 or 30 years, of course, but so much of the expectations in terms of what a middle class family should have and how they should live, have grown faster than incomes over time. Just one way to summarize that is that the median square footage of a new American house, has increased from about 900 square feet to 2,500 square feet. So that's just expectations rising faster than income and that's true at every single income level, no matter how wealthy you are, successful you are.

Anthony Scaramucci: (12:54)
Well, unfortunately the plate at the diner, Morgan, has also expanded, so we've got that issue going on as well. You got a lot of great anecdotes in the book and some of them are related to common mistakes that people make with their money. I was wondering if you could, I don't want to steal the thunder of the book, but just share one or two of them that you think are compelling to explain what the commonalities are in terms of how people miscue money.

Morgan Housel: (13:24)
Sure. I mean, here's one from the book that's always stuck with me and the story has nothing to do with investing, but this will all come back around to a good investing lesson, I hope. Back before antibiotics, if you got syphilis, the main treatment for treating syphilis was to actually-

Anthony Scaramucci: (13:40)
John, are you paying attention to this, John? Let me just make sure-

Morgan Housel: (13:44)
I knew this is going to go somewhere like that.

Anthony Scaramucci: (13:45)
All right. John pay attention, he's speaking directly to you, John. Okay, just go ahead, let me go back to active speaker. I'm sorry. Go ahead.

Morgan Housel: (13:54)
The main treatment for syphilis was to inject you with a low end strain of malaria. That was how you were treated for it. And the reason was because injecting yourself with malaria and intentionally giving yourself malaria, would trigger a very high fever. You get a fever of 104 that would last for a week, and the fever would kill the syphilis. Which is just to say that we have known for a long time, that fevers play a very key role in fighting infection. That used to be how we actually treated illness, was to trigger fevers in you. And look, we don't do that anymore because now we have antibiotics, thank God. But there's this interesting thing where we know that fevers are beneficial. Fever is a good thing. Fever is a sign that your body is fighting a thing you're trying to get rid of.

Morgan Housel: (14:32)
But what's interesting in the modern world, is that no one, including doctors, views a fever as anything other than a nuisance. And if you get a fever, you should take Tylenol right away, get rid of that damn thing, get it out of here, even if it's a beneficial thing that is helping you get better. Why is that? Why do we try to get rid of something that is beneficial? To me, the best explanation is just because fevers suck. They hurt. They're miserable. Let's just sit under the covers shivering. So even if it is helpful, even if it's rational to want a fever, it's not reasonable. And if there's a pill that can help me get rid of it right away, give me that pill, I'm going to take it 10 times out of 10.

Morgan Housel: (15:05)
Which is just this explanation that there are things in life that are rational, that makes sense on paper, that makes sense in a spreadsheet, but they're not reasonable. They're not reasonable because no one wants to be uncomfortable in the world. And I think that is also true for investing. There are a lot of things in investing that makes sense on paper, that are rational, all the numbers line up, but they're not reasonable for people to have. And aiming to be just reasonable with your money instead of coldly rational, is, I think, a better guideposts for most people, regardless of how wealthy you are in terms of making decisions with your money. Let me give you one example. There's a well known home bias in investing, where people in the United States, only own American companies, people in Germany, only own German companies, et cetera. You own the company, you own the stocks based off of where you live, based off your own local state, your local neighborhood.

Morgan Housel: (15:51)
There's no reason to think that that is a rational thing to do with your money. The idea that the best companies to own happen to be the ones located nearest to your house, it's ridiculous. There's no ration to that. But it's actually a pretty reasonable thing to do. If taking the leap of faith of investing your net worth into companies that you are more familiar with, if that helps you to take the leap of faith that you need to be a longterm patient investor, to feel comfortable with your investments, then it's a very reasonable thing to do, even if it's not rational.

Morgan Housel: (16:18)
There are other things like paying your mortgage off, which is the most ridiculous thing you could do with your money right now, because you can get a 30 year fixed rate mortgage for 2.9%. But it's a pretty reasonable thing to do if it gives you an added sense of safety, security, it helps you sleep at night. It actually makes you happier with your money, helps you tuck your kids in bed and say, "Hey, we're going to be okay. No one can take this away from us." Even if you can't justify it on paper, in a spreadsheet, there are things like that that I think are actually wonderful things to do with your money, because they're the most reasonable things you can do, even if they're not rational.

Anthony Scaramucci: (16:49)
Talk about the hamster trail. And what do I mean by that? You're up on that hamster, circulating, you're always trying to catch the person ahead of you and you have that wanting for more, that expectation that you're talking about. When I was a kid, I grew up with no money, now by the grace of God and some hard work, I've lived a good part of the American dream, but you always have that pressure on you. And then conversely, and I know a lot of people that grew up the way I did, you always are staring at your bank account and you're wondering ... Chris Rock had like this great line, Morgan. He was like, "I'm in this beautiful house in Alpine, New Jersey, but I have a bag packed by the front door because I'm waiting for somebody to knock on the door and say that the house really isn't mine and I have to leave." It was something I really related to as a blue collar kid.

Anthony Scaramucci: (17:36)
So explain that because I think you do a great job of that in the book. How do you get off the hamster trail? How do you accept your wealth and social status? How do you immobilize your ego, if you will?

Morgan Housel: (17:48)
I think there's two of this. One, we have to recognize that the hamster wheel is actually what makes the economy work. The fact that virtually none of us, no matter how much we have, the fact that it doesn't feel like enough is what gets us waking up in the morning and going out and trying to make the world better, build new businesses and keep going. So in one sense, it's phenomenal. If everyone wants their net worth to hit a million dollars, if everyone quit working, the economy would go nowhere of course, we wouldn't have anything. So in one sense, it's good, we shouldn't fight against it. At the individual level, I think if you're trying to manage your expectations, managing your ego, to me, the biggest revelation for me is realizing how little people actually care or think about the stuff that you have.

Morgan Housel: (18:25)
No one is thinking about you, no one is thinking about your image, no one is talking about the cars you have or the house you have, more than you are. I use this example in the book, when I was in college, I was a valet at a really nice hotel in Los Angeles. And I realized that, look, if someone drove into the hotel, driving a Ferrari, I would never look at the driver and think, "Wow, I want to be you. You're cool." What I would think is, "Wow, if I was sitting in the car, people would think I'm cool." I never thought about the driver, I thought of myself in the drivers seat.

Anthony Scaramucci: (18:54)
That's because they weren't in a Rolls Royce though, Morgan. What if they were in a Rolls Royce?

Morgan Housel: (18:58)
Well, then that's a different story.

Anthony Scaramucci: (18:59)
I'm kidding, I'm kidding.

Morgan Housel: (19:00)
Look, I never, and this is true to today, I never think about the person driving the car, I think what people would think about me if I was driving the car. And that fundamental irony is just driving home the point that no one thinks about you more than you. And once you could really grasp that, it's a difficult thing to do, but once you grasp that, then I think it goes a long way in keeping your ego in check. And for me, it's also been, well, okay, if the Ferrari is not what I want and look, for me, it actually is, I love cars, this is not a plea to live like a monk. But if that's not what I wanted, what am I going to do with my money? To me, it's always been using money to control my time, control my schedule, doing what I want, when I want, with whom I want, for as long as I want to, that is going to give me a lasting level of happiness and joy with my money, more than almost anything material will. So that's what I want to use my money for.

Morgan Housel: (19:53)
Once you realize that people don't care about you as much as you do, but being able to control your calendar, being able to wake up every morning and say, "I can do whatever the hell I want to do today." That is going to give you way more happiness than driving the Ferrari will. Then that, to me, has been how I've personally tried to keep my ego in check, but it's the hardest thing in the world. It's so natural to think that if you just have X dollars more, then your happiness is going to rise by the same amount, or if you have X dollars more, then you'll finally feel satisfied, that's the most common, natural feeling in the world to the level of wealth that you have.

Morgan Housel: (20:22)
That's so difficult to fight against, even if we know it's important, because again, your only ability to be happy with money is just a gap between what you have and what you expect. So we always talk about how can we grow our wealth? How can we grow our income? And of course that's important, but we also need to focus on how can we maintain our expectations because if we don't, then it's never going to feel like enough.

Anthony Scaramucci: (20:41)
So I have one last question for you before I turn it over to John Darsie because we have a lot of questions from the audience filling the queue. And this is related again to something in the book. Is there an evolutionary perspective on why people are easily swayed by pessimism, pessimistic views of the world, when history is actually showing the very opposite, that we've had steady progress, yes, bumps and scrapes along the way, but if you look at a stock chart or evolution or medical technology, it seems like there's a steady progress upward. Why are we so pessimistic?

Morgan Housel: (21:16)
I think there's two reasons why that is, why pessimism is so seductive, even if we know historically that optimism is a better bet. Why does that pessimism usually sound like someone trying to help you? If you read a pessimistic book, a pessimistic headline, it's warning you, "Hey, there's a danger in your life and I'm trying to help you so you don't get hurt." It sounds like someone trying to help you, so you're much more willing to say, "Oh, I should listen to this person." Whereas, optimism often sounds like a sales pitch, "Hey, you can make a lot of money on the stock. There's this big reward down the street." It makes it sound like someone's trying to pull your leg. So I think we are naturally inclined to just be more skeptical of the optimistic views and pay more attention to the pessimism, the pessimistic views.

Morgan Housel: (21:53)
The other reason is that there are lots of overnight tragedies. Things can fall apart in an instant. Things break overnight. COVID-19 September, 11th, for example. But there's almost never overnight miracles. Progress, even though it's more powerful than the setbacks that we've had, much more powerful, we've had so much growth over time, the progress happens slowly. It happens incrementally, 2% per year, which if you compound that over time, is extraordinary, but the setbacks happen overnight. So since setbacks happen so quickly, we can't ignore them. They're in our face, they're in the headlines blaring, what happened today, what happened yesterday. Whereas, the progress is much slower burn over time, even if it's more powerful. So I think that's why, if you have any sense of history, you should be an optimist over time, over a long period of time, but it's so common to get pulled into the allure of pessimism.

Morgan Housel: (22:43)
To me, this has always been from just a practical standpoint of how to deal with this, has always been save like a pessimist and invest like an optimist. I want to save like a pessimist because I know that things are going to hit the fan every month, every year, the world is going to break once a decade because that's always what's happened over the course of history. But I'm an optimist in the long run because I know that people are going to solve problems, figure things out, companies will be profitable and it will accrue to me as an investor. So it's just that Barbara Bell approach to thinking about the future of the world.

Anthony Scaramucci: (23:10)
Very good, Morgan. Let's turn it over to John. He's got lots of questions from our audience.

John Darsie: (23:15)
Including the audience of me. I have questions for you, Morgan. As I mentioned, I've read you over the years and you did a great job in the book of taking a lot of your writings and distilling it down. And you talk a lot about compounding in your regular writings and in the book and about how time is really your most important weapon as an investor and you use the example of Jim Simons versus Warren Buffett. Could you go into more depth about that anecdote in your book, it crystallized in my mind and I think it crystallizes in other people's minds about the value time and compounding and investing.

Morgan Housel: (23:48)
So here's what's really interesting about Buffett. So he's 90 years old, he's worth about $90 billion today. If you look at the trajectory of his life, 95% of Buffett's net worth came after his 55th birthday, the majority of his money has come in his elderly years. And even if you were to say, after age 70, way more than half of his net worth came after age 70, which is just how compounding works. Compounding is always a thing where the gains in early years look minuscule and then a medium years they get big and then in the later years they just explode to something extraordinary.

Morgan Housel: (24:19)
So I use this hypothetical example in the book, Buffett started investing when he was 11 and now he's 90. Let's say hypothetically, he was like a normal person and he started investing at age 25 and he retired at age 65, like a normal person. And let's assume that he earned the same average annual returns, 22% per year, during that period. What would his net worth be if that were the case hypothetically? It's not 90 billion, it's 12 million, that his net worth would be. If Buffett retired at age 65 like a normal person, you would have never heard of him. He would never have become a household name, he would have been a successful investor. But the reason that he is so successful in dollar terms is specifically tied to the amount of time he has been investing for.

Morgan Housel: (24:57)
And I use the example of Jim Simons of Renaissance Technology, whose average annual returns are triple what Buffett's are. The average annual returns of the medallion fund are over 60% per year. So he is, on an annualized basis, way more successful than Buffett, but Buffett is much richer than Jim Simons just because he's been doing it for so much longer. And I use this ridiculous example and I'm warning you that it's a ridiculous example to say, let's say if Jim Simons had earned his 60% annual returns for as long as Buffett had been investing for, let's say Jim Simons started investing at age 11 and continues through age 90 and earned a 60% returns. What would his net worth be hypothetically? And the ridiculous answer is something like 60 quintillion dollars, it's something absurd that's hard to even wrap your head around.

Morgan Housel: (25:46)
So I think compounding, even if you are a smart, mathematically minded person, it's just not intuitive. It's not intuitive to think that 95% of Warren Buffett's net worth would come in his elderly years. Even if you understand compounding, you can explain it to a five year old, it's never intuitive how it works. And so I think someone like Buffett, is he a great investor? Of course, period. But his skill is investing, but his secret is just time. The secret that explains his net worth is just the amount of time he has been investing for. And that's true for all of us as well. It's not comfortable to hear that if you're already 70 or 80 years old, but we have to realize where the gains come from, is less about what we're doing in any given year, even our average returns over our life and more of just how long we've been doing it for. That's true for people, it's true for investing, it's true for companies, it's true for nations, it's true for careers, that time is really where you get the big leaps in outcome.

John Darsie: (26:38)
I think it was Bill Gates that said, you'd be hard pressed to accomplish much a year, but over 10 years, you'd be surprised at what you can accomplish. That's been attributed to multiple people, but I think the same thing applies in investing.

Morgan Housel: (26:50)
And Buffett would say, you'd be surprised what you can do in 70 years. That's where the ridiculous gains come from. And there's so many people who, like I mentioned, there are 2000 books on Amazon that are devoted to how did Warren Buffett do this. And they go into grand detail about moats and business models and how he thinks about markets and economies. And to me, it's always been, you can explain Buffett's success and I'm generalizing here, but I think this is generally true, you can explain the majority of his success pretty simply. He's a pretty good private equity fund investor, who doesn't charge fees and he's been doing it for 70 years. That's how you explain Buffett. That's where it comes from. If you were to compare his returns against another fund that charges two and 20 and has been doing it for five years, of course, Buffett's going to blow them out of the water, just because of those simple things. But those explanations, they're too simple for people to take seriously and they're often not intuitive.

John Darsie: (27:39)
And he and Charlie Munger, had a third partner early in their business career, that you don't hear anything about. Why is it that you don't hear anything about that third partner?

Morgan Housel: (27:48)
So everyone knows about Buffett and Munger, they've become household names. But if you go back to the 1970's, there was a third guy in that group named Rick Guerin. And Rick Guerin was just as involved with Warren and Charlie in terms of doing deals for Berkshire Hathaway, he was part of the crew. They talk about when they bought See's Candy, Rick Guerin was the one interviewing the CEO of See's Candy, he was part of the Berkshire crew and you don't hear about him anymore. And what happened, from what I understand, speaking with different people who had heard the story from Buffett, is that in the 1970's, Rick Guerin used a lot of margin and when the stock market collapsed in the 1970's, he got wiped out.

Morgan Housel: (28:29)
And the way that Buffett explained this to a hedge fund manager named [inaudible 00:28:33], who told me this story, was that Warren and Charlie always knew they were going to be rich. They knew it was going to happen, so they weren't in a hurry. They were not in a hurry to get rich. They saw it as inevitable, so why rush it. Whereas he said Rick Guerin was a little bit more in a hurry, he wanted to get rich fast, so he used a lot of leverage to get there. And that was his undoing, so to speak. So he's still around, he's still investing, just not with the success that Warren and Charlie had, he didn't become a multi-billionaire like they did. Which to me, it just gets back to investing, how it really works, it's just a matter of time. And if you're trying to speed that time up, if you're trying to cheat the system and say, "Well, look, I don't want to wait 30 years. I want to get those returns in the next two or three years." That's the opening line of a lot of horror stories in finance.

John Darsie: (29:21)
You're also a big advocate, both in your personal investing and explaining things through data, of dollar cost averaging, both from a long-term returns perspective, as well as a psychological perspective. Anthony was talking about the relationship between fear and greed and there's always, and we've all experienced it if you've ever invested capital in markets, there's that twinge of regret you get when you don't pick a bottom and when you sell something before it tops. You say, "Man, if I had just waited a couple more weeks to get in." I think probably people felt this in March as well, either buying the dip early and with that big drawdown we saw as a result of the pandemic and then as the markets run away in the subsequent months. But why is dollar cost averaging so important from a psychological perspective, to keep you invested in markets and how does it help determine returns over time?

Morgan Housel: (30:08)
I think there's two parts of it. One is just having humility in our ability to forecast and 2020 is probably the best example of that. If you go back to January, no one of course was saying, "We're going to have a pandemic that's going to shut down the global economy and crash the stock market by March." And if you go back to March, no one was saying, "Stocks are going to surge to new all time highs by August." If 2020 has not made you humble about our ability to figure out what's going to happen next in markets, I don't think anything will. So there's that element to it. There's also just a sense of, if you understand the emotional side of investing, that we are likely to make the worst decisions at the worst possible time, then any way that you can systematize your investments and rather than saying, "Okay, I'm going to invest when the stock market does this, when I think the economy is going to do this next."

Morgan Housel: (30:50)
If you're going to say, "Look, I'm going to invest the same amount of money on the same day of every month, regardless of what's happening in the economy or in the stock market," and just systematize it like that. Then you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, fewer levers to pull, fewer just booby traps to screw you up over time, you're going a long way to take the emotion out of the equation. Not 100% because even if you have a dollar cost averaging strategy, you can break it at any time. So it's not a fail safe, but I think anything you can do in investing for professionals or individuals, anything you can do to try to remove the emotions from it, to the extent that you can, is going to pay off over long periods of time.

Morgan Housel: (31:27)
There's this other element to me too, that I write in the book and I'm pretty open about this, I'm mostly a passive investor. And look, does that mean that I don't think that people can outperform the market? No. Does that mean that I don't think people can pick the best stocks or that there are talented hedge fund managers? No, not whatsoever. But if you look at the statistics for, let's say, actively managed mutual funds, over a period of time, 90% will underperform. And that statistic has usually been used as an indictment against the industry, that 90% trail their benchmarks, that means the industry is failing. I've never viewed it that way at all, I view it as that's how it should be. What world do you live in, in which you would expect the majority of people trying to become stupendously rich in the stock market are able to do it?

Morgan Housel: (32:12)
There's no other area in life where that's the case. Think about what percentage of college athletes make it to the pros? I don't know the figure, but it's probably like 2%. Let's say it's something like that. No one would say college athletics are a scam, college athletics are failing because only 2% make it to the pros. People just know, making it to the pros should be extremely hard and if you get there, it's because you're the tippity top of your class. I view actively managed investing as the same way, it should hard, the majority of people should fail at it. So that's why I think to me, dollar cost averaging in a more passive approach, is often viewed as a very conservative form of investing. But if I have a high degree of certainty that over a period of time, I'm going to end up in the top decile of all investors, it doesn't look that conservative to me. So that's where the hands off, taking the emotions out of it, is actually a way that I think you can make yourself an above average investor.

John Darsie: (33:05)
So your advice based on the data, would be that people are better off as passive investors, as opposed to trying to be stock pickers. I remember there was a study that was done by a brokerage house, I can't remember which one it was, about which accounts perform best over the long term. And what they found was they found a group of accounts that were performing above average relative to the rest of their audience and the people, once they distilled it down, it was actually people that had died that hadn't serviced their accounts and their accounts had been invested passively for a long period of time, without anybody making emotional decisions. I thought it just crystallized in my mind, the themes that you're talking about.

Morgan Housel: (33:45)
And one tweak I would make on your comments is that it's not necessarily my advice, it is what works for me, given my goals, given my risk tolerance. I know if I can do that strategy and hold it for the next 50 years, I'll be able to achieve every financial goal that I have and then some. But look, it's completely different if you are a pension, a foundation, if you are a hedge fund manager, you have different goals, different risk tolerance. This is different for everyone. So that to me, is one of the biggest pieces of advice that I have in the book, is that people do different things with their money and it's not because we disagree with each other, most of the time that's not the case. It's because we all have a different view of the world, we've seen a different side of the world, we have different goals, different risk tolerances and just the idea that rational, educated people can and do disagree in investing.

Morgan Housel: (34:29)
So I would say that's what works for me, but I also know there are people for whom they can not look themselves in the mirror in the morning, if that's how they invested, or they would not achieve their goals and their risk tolerance is if that's how they invested. So it's different for everyone.

John Darsie: (34:40)
Yeah. Ultimately you have to marry the two themes that Anthony mentioned earlier, developing a healthy relationship with money, with how do I, within that framework, develop strong returns as an investor. And you can't de-link those two items, they're inexorably linked, and you have to marry them together for your own personal happiness and psychology.

Morgan Housel: (35:02)
Right. And that changes over the course of people's lives as well. I'm 36, so writing this book today, are there going to be things that I disagree about in 20 years if I go back and read it? Probably. There are going to be things that I've learned in life, I'm going to have different goals, my kids will be moved out, everything is going to change. So the idea of being a long term thinker and being committed to an idea, but also being open minded to the idea that not only the world changes, but people change, people's own goals and values, what they want out of life, changes too. It means we're all going to keep making different decisions with our money, not just rebalancing into different assets, but just a completely different view of how we think the world works over time.

Morgan Housel: (35:39)
Almost no one has a fully formed view of how the economy and the stock market works when they graduate college, that they're going to stick with for the rest of their career. We're all just learning how this works. And as 2020 showed us, big fundamental assumptions that we have about the world, can be completely thrown out the window on a moment's notice, like happened this year. So of course we just have to be flexible with our views over time and it makes the, pound the table, this is how the world works, this is how we should always do it, we just have to be a little bit more flexible than that, I think.

John Darsie: (36:10)
Switching gears a little bit and talk about your writing process. So you talked earlier in the talk about how important it is for people to get their ideas down on paper and it might take ideas that are bouncing around in your brain and allowing you to crystallize them in a productive way by writing. How did you start writing? How did you develop such a passion for writing? What's your process for writing? I think there's a lot of people, I do some writing as well, so a lot of people experience writer's block or they sit down and they have a hard time getting started, but if they regularly wrote things down, it would help them achieve some clarity in their thoughts. What's your process? How would you recommend to people starting a process of writing for their own benefit?

Morgan Housel: (36:50)
Here's two things, it took me a long time to learn these, but these have been the most important realizations I've had as a writer. One is that writer's block, which happens to everyone, is usually a reflection of your ideas, it doesn't reflect your ability to write. If you get writer's block it's because your idea is bad, 99% of the time that's true. Good ideas are very easy to write for everyone, bad ideas are very hard to write for everyone. So if you find yourself stuck in the writing process, I would not examine your writing ability, I would examine your core thesis of whatever you're writing about. That's almost always the case for me. And whenever I'm writing and I get stuck on something, I try as hard to be as honest with myself as I can and say, "Do I just need to abandon this idea?" If I can't figure out a way to say it, that's probably because what I'm trying to say, doesn't make sense.

Morgan Housel: (37:36)
The second thing that's been helpful for me, is for me, when I write I'm writing for an audience of one, I'm writing for myself. I call it selfish writing, this idea that I only want to write things that I myself am personally interested in. I'm not trying to say, who's the audience, what are they going to be interested in? I only want to write stuff, almost like a diary sense of, this is for me. And I take that as a leap of faith, that if I'm interested in something, other people will as well.

Morgan Housel: (38:01)
Because if you do that, there's two things that come from it. One is you're always going to do your best work when you're actually genuinely passionate and interested in what you're writing and I'm not being forced to write this idea or because I think someone else might think it's cool, but I think this topic is cool, so I love researching it, I love writing it. That's when you do your best work. The other thing is when you're writing it, since I'm writing it for myself, I'm always asking myself, "Does this sentence add anything? Do I personally get anything out of that sentence or this paragraph?" And a lot of the time the answer is no, so take it out. If I'm writing for myself, then I'm only going write things that are benefiting me as a reader. So I think just viewing it through that lens has been very helpful for me.

John Darsie: (38:42)
Fantastic. Morgan, thanks so much for joining us. We'd recommend everybody who's on the talk, if you haven't already, go out and buy his book, Psychology of Money. I know Anthony ordered it for our entire office, we're investment professionals, but I think both he and I are attracted to the simplicity of your writing, the simplicity of your ideas. Again, not as advice, but for people to understand, based on history, what has helped people succeed in driving investment returns and what's helped people succeed in terms of developing a healthy relationship with their money. Anthony, do you have any final words for Morgan?

Anthony Scaramucci: (39:13)
Just Morgan, thanks for joining us. And I'm just encouraging the young people, we get a tremendous amount of young people on these SALT Talks, please go out and get Morgan's book. Read it, take notes, and it'll be infinitely beneficial to you in your investing career. Morgan, thank you very much for coming on with us.

Morgan Housel: (39:35)
Thank you so much for having me. This has been fun. Thank you.

Anthony Scaramucci: (39:38)
What else have we got coming up John?

John Darsie: (39:38)
Thanks for putting up with all of Anthony's immature antics as well Morgan, we appreciate that.

Morgan Housel: (39:44)
That's part of the package.

Anthony Scaramucci: (39:47)
We only talked about syphilis, we didn't talk about the White House and what Sarah Huckabee said about me, we just talked about syphilis, not a big deal.

Fintech Is Growing & Here's Why | SALT Talks #54

“Leveraging data and technology to create access can change the future.“

Michael Weisz is the Founder & President of Yieldstreet, an alternative investment platform focused on generating passive income streams for investors. Gil Mandelzis is the Founder & Chief Executive Officer of Capitolis, the leading SaaS platform driving financial resource optimization for capital markets.

“What is the power of capital and how can you use it to change the world?” Correcting income disparity has the potential to improve countless life and create new opportunity. But what true innovation has happened in financial services over the past decade? “Not a whole lot: payments and distribution.”

Post-financial crisis, we are seeing fewer, larger banks with more constraints on their capital, meaning there is abundant independent capital seeking out returns. With this comes the need for regulation, something that separates FinTech from other industries like ride sharing.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKERS

Michael Weisz.jpeg

Michael Weisz

Founder & President

Yieldstreet

Gil Mandelzis.jpeg

Gil Mandelzis

Founder & Chief Executive Officer

Capitolis

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie: (00:08)
Hello, everyone. Welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is John Darsie. I'm the managing director of SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum at the intersection of finance, technology and public policy. And this is a landmark SALT Talk today. I'm broadcasting live for the first time in 2020 from SkyBridge HQ here in Manhattan, contrary to popular belief. Manhattan is still here. It's not the wasteland that many people conveyed to me that it is. And it's great to be back in the office. We're going to start slowly getting back to normal here at SkyBridge and SALT. So it's great to be here. And obviously I have a new background here for those who have been recurring listeners.

John Darsie: (00:48)
But SALT Talks are a series of digital interviews we've been doing during this work from home period. That was some of the world's foremost investors, creators and thinkers. What we're really trying to do is replicate the experience that we provide at our global SALT conference series, which is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And we're very excited today to welcome two FinTech entrepreneurs, who are definitely shaping the future of the financial industry, as well as the technology world.

John Darsie: (01:19)
That's Michael Weisz and Gil Mandelzis to SALT Talks. Michael is the founder and the president of Yieldstreet. He's responsible for Yieldstreet's investment strategy and originator network, and has overseen more than 900 million in transactions over the course of his career. He began his career at a $1.2 billion, New York based credit fund, working his way up to vice president before co-founding his own fund in 2013. During his 10 years on the institutional side of the business, he grew frustrated that access to superior wealth creation opportunities, it wasn't quite as accessible to the individual investor.

John Darsie: (01:57)
In 2015, with that in mind, he teamed up with Milind Mehere to create Yieldstreet, which democratizes access to the alternative investment world. Gil is the founder and CEO of Capitolis, which is a leading software as a service platform, driving financial resource optimization for capital markets. He's an award winning serial entrepreneur and industry executive in the FinTech space with a successful record of creating disruptive products and companies and leading them through global scaling. Prior to Capitolis, Gil was the CEO of EBS BrokerTec, which is NEX Group, formerly ICAP, it's the foreign exchange and fixed income electronic markets business.

John Darsie: (02:40)
He served as a member of ICAP'S global executive management group, and before EBS BrokerTec, he was the CEO of Traiana, which was a post-trade processing company he founded in 2000. Traiana was featured in a Kellogg Business School business case study that was written about Gil. He was also a member of the New York Federal Reserves Foreign Exchange Committee, the Bank of England's Joint Standing Committee and the Bank of Canada's Foreign Exchange Committee. Just a reminder, if you have any questions for Gil or Michael during today's SALT Talk, you can enter them in the Q&A box at the bottom of your video screen within the Zoom window. And hosting today's interview will be Anthony Scaramucci, who is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, as well as the chairman of SALT. And with that, I'll turn it over to Anthony.

Antony Scaramucci: (03:28)
Okay, well, I just want to thank the Academy for giving me the room Raider award on this particular SALT Congress. Your three room Raiders look terrible. I think mine looks great. This is the first time that I actually beat John Darsie. So I just would like to thank my mom and dad and other members of the room Raider Academy. But Gil, let's go to you first. Okay, Gil well, you have this amazing career and how did you get it started? Tell us a little bit about the family you grew up in and how you took this trajectory with your life?

Gil Mandelzis: (04:02)
Yeah. Thank you. Thanks for having me. I grew up in Israel and I grew up to a very, I would say, culturally minded and socialist family. And my calling was actually to be a professor of sociology. I started thinking very early on about society structures and what is the right structure. And I started making myself all the way from Max, from Max all the way to capitalism, which is where ultimately I landed as a society structure that is very compelling. And therefore was very attracted to the capital of capitalism, which is the US. And came here and became a FinTech entrepreneur. That was way before FinTech was hot.

Gil Mandelzis: (05:00)
Actually FinTech in 2000 was, it wasn't a term, but financial technology was actually a really bad word. If you wanted to raise money from venture capital, especially in the Silicon Valley back then, financial technology was the last thing you wanted to say. But my focus was, and still is on, if capitalism is important, capital markets make capitalism available or possible. And the structure and the infrastructure for this market is something that is very near and dear to my heart. So I think a lot about global market infrastructure, global market structure, and how to make it more robust and how to introduce innovation that is going to push the agenda further.

Antony Scaramucci: (05:39)
Well, before I get to Michael and just a quick answer, give me a short answer to this. Our capitalist model is under siege. There's a lot of income disparity, and it seems like people that I grew up with, Michael, aren't doing as well as they used to. I grew up in this aspirational blue collar family. Most of those families now are economically desperational. Is that a byproduct of capitalism? Or is that something we can fix?

Gil Mandelzis: (06:06)
Well, I think it's both. I don't think capitalism is perfect by any means. And I think there are a lot of things that are broken and should be fixed, but I would also say that working from within capitalism on improving it, is probably a better solution than just throwing the baby.

Antony Scaramucci: (06:27)
[inaudible 00:06:27] you, and I agree on that. Michael let's turn over to you and the famous Yieldstreet. So what happened there? How'd you get this thing going? What did your parents think you were going to be when you were growing up and how did you end up here?

Michael Weisz: (06:43)
All right. I'm a native New Yorker, grew up on Long Island to a nice, quiet, nice area.

Antony Scaramucci: (06:52)
What town? We're going to do Italian, Jewish geography for people that don't live on Long Island. So good. What town?

Michael Weisz: (06:57)
Here we go. I grew up in a town called Lawrence, which is in the Five Towns.

Antony Scaramucci: (07:01)
You grew in the Five Towns? Okay. Sure. I used to hang out in oceanside at that Nathan's when I was a kid. My uncle owned that motorcycle shop in port Washington. We used to go down to Nathan's for those Tuesday night events.

Michael Weisz: (07:14)
That's like our backyard.

Antony Scaramucci: (07:16)
Which always brought the cops, but that's a whole other topic. Okay. Go ahead. So you're growing up in Lawrence, your parents think you're going to be what?

Michael Weisz: (07:24)
My parents think I'm going to probably be like a doctor or a lawyer, good Jewish family.

Antony Scaramucci: (07:29)
[crosstalk 00:07:29] good, of course.

Michael Weisz: (07:31)
Thank you. I appreciate it. The truth is-

Antony Scaramucci: (07:33)
Darsie's parents thought he was going to be a banker, trust me, they thought he was going to look like the guy in the Monopoly board, but you two were [crosstalk 00:07:42]-

Michael Weisz: (07:42)
We were both terrible disappointment.

Antony Scaramucci: (07:43)
The other one was a doctor. I was supposed to be landscaping your yards, just so everybody's clear. And look at us now, we're all here on this SALT Talk. All right. Go ahead, so what happened?

Michael Weisz: (07:55)
I got enamored by the financial markets, like trying to understand what risk means even as a young kid, and how investor appetite works and where people put their money and how markets change. I'll be honest and say that when I thought I was enamored by it, I had no idea what it actually meant, but it was interesting to me. And growing up as a kid that would spend some time in the city and cut school to jump on the LIRR and go hang out, the energy that was in New York City and seeing all these huge buildings in Wall Street, really had me very interested.

Michael Weisz: (08:28)
As I started my career, I started to think about, what really is the power of capital? How can you use capital to change the world? Is it by investing and helping create jobs? By supporting entrepreneurs to get ahead, you talk about wealth disparity, income disparity, those are topics that are always been incredibly interesting to me. And we should jump into that. And then on the other side of that is how do you help people achieve those financial ambitions? And how do you use your skillset, your ability, and the broader capital in the investment market to make a bigger difference? And that's really what got me into being excited about financial markets and investing overall.

Michael Weisz: (09:07)
Yieldstreet was the next generation. I started out doing some regular, I would say, run of the mill asset based lending, nothing too exciting, supply chain financing, receivable financing, et cetera. And what I quickly learned was that inefficiency in certain subsets of the market can often lead you to have more attractive yield. And what ultimately became front and center to me was that, the income disparity that's really going on is as a result of education, jobs and that lack of access. And leveraging data and technology to create access can really change the future and help people get to their financial ambitions. And that's really how YieldStreet got started. That's what I've gotten incredibly excited about. And that's what led me here today.

Antony Scaramucci: (09:59)
Well, first of all, congratulations, amazing career for both of you guys. But on Michael, I want to ask a little bit about the role of technology in the pre-COVID environment, and how does it look now in the post-COVID environment based on your commercial experience?

Michael Weisz: (10:18)
The front half of that question is pretty broad. I'm going to dig into it a little bit. I think that we could all agree that technology has brought our lives to a whole different place. And we see it evolving year over year. If you think about basic interactions with your financial wellbeing, whether it's your trading stock or your interactions with your retirement accounts, with your credit card, how you go about getting a mortgage, et cetera. We've seen a tremendous amount of advancements in technology. I think the question really is like, what real innovation have we seen? And as people talk about FinTech. So as I think about FinTech, it's really the partnership between traditional financial services and technology to enable something even better, a better experience, better access, better outcome.

Michael Weisz: (11:10)
When you really take the time to think about where has true innovation happened in financial services, it's not a whole lot. It's happened in the payments space and it's happened in the distribution space, but finding more websites to identify investors, to borrow money more, or to find a better credit card or a better mortgage supplier is not true innovation. I think that what you're seeing over the last number of years pre-COVID is this buildup and acceptance of technology, and how it's enabled banks and other financial companies to advance and to make progress and to streamline things, to make the business more efficient.

Michael Weisz: (11:51)
What you're seeing now, and what we'll talk about over the next couple of years is having real true innovation. And I think that COVID has systematically changed a lot of our behavior and it's impacted the financial services market as well. And I'm happy to comment on that whenever you're ready.

Antony Scaramucci: (12:11)
Yeah. Well, let me just fire Gil in here because we're creating a technological asset management salad. So let me just ask Gil to dovetail off of that. So the banks have obviously turned to technology to improve their relationship with the asset management community. Tell us how they've done that, and tell us where you think that trend's going? And then I have a question for both of you that will synthesize where you both are.

Gil Mandelzis: (12:36)
Yeah. If I just take a step back for a second, just to where we're coming from, basically, we're trying to bring and borrow a lot of the sharing economy, network economies, Allah, Uber, Airbnb, and otherwise into the capital markets world, with the basic premise that says that on the back of the financial crisis, A, we have fewer banks. B, these banks, they used to have basically unlimited amounts of capital, and that was the lowest cost of capital that is out there. The regulator is on the back of the financial crisis, changed the game. And to a certain extent rewrote the industrial logic of what is a bank. And very wisely have done that. Not through a hard and fast Volcker rule, but actually through the economics such actually the bigger you get, the more expensive your capital is you could do less things off balance sheet, et cetera, et cetera.

Gil Mandelzis: (13:36)
What happens is 10 years later, and it's only going to grow over time. We have fewer banks, global banks with massive infrastructures and capabilities, with more and more constraints on their capital and their cost of capital. And you have actually much more money out there looking for returns, many more asset managers that are managing significantly more capital and are looking for those services. And there you have a basic tension in the market. So the asset managers can no longer just come to the banks and say, "I want you to do this for me." And the banks are just going to say yes, because the equation has changed. So it has to become a much more collaborative model of understanding the supply and demand, the cost of capital. What does it cost for the bank to service me, et cetera?

Gil Mandelzis: (14:30)
Banks can no longer, obviously if you're a Blackstone or obviously if you're SkyBridge or if you're a PIMCO or BlackRock, you could get any service you want from the large banks. But when you're talking about asset manager number 10,000, without technology, and without scale. Without technology that would allow the scale, it's impossible to service those clients and to provide them what they need. It's a much more collaborative effort between them. Sometimes the banks are suppliers. Sometimes, actually the banks are going to be consumers of the asset managers, and you have to provide those platforms that are going to allow them to collaborate.

Antony Scaramucci: (15:08)
Makes total sense. It's obviously the intersection where everything's happening. So this is a question I have for both of you. I want you to envision where we are five years from now, in terms of technological efficiencies, and then in terms of product design. Let's start with you, Michael. You guys have laid out where we were and where we are now, but I guess the question is where are we going?

Michael Weisz: (15:37)
Sure. I think, let's zoom out for a second and just focus from a very practical perspective, what is the business? What do we do? And then what's happening around us in the industry? So very simply put Yieldstreet's mission is to help millions of people get a road to financial independence. And we do that by providing them access to what we believe are best in class institutional grade, alternative investments. Our customers are two sides. On one hand, you have the investors. So you have 200 plus 1,000 individual investors, high net worth, et cetera. On the other side, you have institutions, banks, hedge fund managers, lenders, et cetera, that are looking for a strategic capital partner.

Michael Weisz: (16:20)
What Yieldstreet essentially provides the supply side. So the deal side, the investment opportunity side is what I like to refer to as distribution infrastructure. And in what we will talk about that in what we provide to the retail side is a new wealth management tools, wealth creation tool. So very simply put, my partners and my team at Yieldstreet, are we just a special breed of genius? No, not at all, not even close, is we were able to recognize how it changed in a regulatory environment and a change in the capabilities of technology can create incredible efficiency, ease of use the digitally native solution. And you can leverage the masses to create financial equality.

Michael Weisz: (17:09)
When Yieldstreet takes on $100 million deal and makes that available fractionally to investors of all different sizes, it is now participating in the same type of deals that your founder, or your capital would, or banks or hedge funds or et cetera. So what we've been able to do is leverage-

Antony Scaramucci: (17:27)
Are you be worried about the risks though? I want you to keep going, but so I'm a retail investor. I may not understand the things that the institutional guys are. Are you worried about that democratization?

Michael Weisz: (17:40)
Yes and no. So currently our current user base is exclusively accredited investors with the exception of 140 act fund. That is a heavily diversified product. I think that, if you take a comparative analysis, Anthony, people who don't have access to the types of investments that you make or that we make are investing their money often in far more risky products. So think about penny stocks, biotech companies, whatever ticker they hear in a bar or on the train, as opposed to the types of investments that we're doing are secure debt. There's real estate backing it. There are other assets. Are there risks? Of course there are. Are there going to be challenges? Of course, there will be.

Michael Weisz: (18:24)
We all experience them as we get to a certain scale, but in the last six years, even less, Yieldstreet has funded a billion foreign loans paid out over 600 million bucks. We've had our fair share of setbacks like every other manager, but that's what we're here for. And that's what we get paid for, so you get paid for. So I think the key is, for YieldStreet to continue to deliver quality education, really trying to explain to people in our content, what are the risks, how to understand them and to explain to them what that process looks like. Will everybody always completely understand it? I don't know. I think they do. I think they're accredited. I think they're sophisticated people. They read it. Will people be upset when something doesn't go the way they want it to? They always are, but that's not going to be any different than your institutional investors or our investors.

Antony Scaramucci: (19:13)
What do you think, Gil? What's the future look like to you?

Gil Mandelzis: (19:17)
I think first of all, I totally buy into Michael's vision and mission and the great work that Yieldstreet's doing. From our perspective, we're doing very similar things, but only at the institutional level. So if you think about democratizing access to opportunities that did not exist before, at the core of our vision sits what we call the lean bank. So you think about the JP Morgan, Citi, a State Street, Bank of America, they will have to, they already have to, and will continue to have to be much leaner from a use of capital, efficiency of capital and financial resources, for their day-to-day operations.

Gil Mandelzis: (19:56)
What we're doing is two things. The first thing is we're identifying all kinds of unnecessary positions, offsetting positions that they have on their books, and we're helping to eliminate them. And that happens now in trillions of dollars every month. And the world is huge. Like every segment we're looking at is trillions of dollars of opportunities, basically almost like free money that can be eliminated and has huge impact on the capital efficiency of the trading relationship.

Gil Mandelzis: (20:25)
The next thing we do is where you cannot compress it, can you now outsource it or partner with participants just like at YieldStreet they will go to the accredited investor, we would go with a Citibank position and offer an asset manager. And it could be any asset manager, we're just dealing with institutional investors to now be the financing partner of the large bank. And obviously we're looking here, like in the first month that we've done the last issuance, we're getting close to a billion dollars and the numbers are ginormous in this space, but basically allowing the balance sheet of banks, and allowing the financing of banks in a large part to now be democratized to the asset managers on the planet that have plenty of cash, but are looking for yield. And will never have the infrastructure and the capabilities that at JP Morgan, Citi or others have.

Gil Mandelzis: (21:26)
The investment that exists in for an equity prime broker or for a foreign exchange platform, this is billions, if not tens of billions of dollars that was invested by the banks, you cannot replicate that. Their distribution, you cannot replicate that. By the way, from a compliance and regulatory perspective, you cannot replicate the capabilities that they have. What they're missing is capital or the cheapest source of capital that exists elsewhere in the world and is abundant. Bring those together and everybody wins. It's good for the banks. It's good for people with capital. It's good for the clients. And from a regulatory perspective and market structure perspective, this is exactly what the regulators want. Because it's a safe market, but also we're bringing more capital that is diversified into the market.

Antony Scaramucci: (22:14)
So Michael, you listening, this is a former socialist that speaks about capitalism with the appropriate zealotry of a converted person. So mazel talk on that.

Michael Weisz: (22:26)
[crosstalk 00:22:26] tastes, but Anthony, if you don't mind, I was thinking about as Gil was talking about two things that you were saying. So one, we start off earlier, you made a passionate commentary about the wealth disconnect in America. And that is a real issue. And then talk all about-

Antony Scaramucci: (22:47)
It's fueling all of this anger, and nationalism, and tribalism and everything, but yes, go ahead.

Michael Weisz: (22:52)
There's obviously different levels of that. Poverty is a separate story. And then there's the blue collar, which is where you started. And I know that story all too well. And the problem is that if people don't have the ability to get ahead and to make more money and have their money work for them, then they're all going to end up at that same place. And that's really, what's causing this disparity. People who can afford to get above their expenses and to have their money work for them, have way more opportunities that's ahead of them. And everyone else falls below the line. And so when you take that and you take the question about the risk to retail. I was thinking about two things.

Michael Weisz: (23:29)
Number one, if you look at... and I was looking for it if I had my slide, but I think it's just going to be too cumbersome to find it and projected. But we used to talk about this slide in the earlier days of YieldStreet, where if you look at the general population of Americans with the ages of 1880, and you look at their financial path, their journey over that, over that period of years, what you find is in the first set of years, call it 18 to late 20s, most people have a ton of debt. They have a lot of student debt, all that other stuff. In their 30s, they start to make a little money. They hit some stability, they have less debt. They have more appropriate debt, whether it's a mortgage, et cetera. And then as they get older and older, they start to invest be it their IRA stocks, bonds, et cetera.

Michael Weisz: (24:13)
The average entrance for an individual into alternatives was 65 years old. 65 years old. That doesn't give you a tremendous amount of time to build that up. Because of the technology and our capabilities Yieldstreet's average customer age is 42. That's a huge, huge number of years to get people to have that earnings working for them. The second thing I would say is, I think it's important that we ask ourselves like, hey, why hasn't alternatives been appropriately distributed to retail in the right way at the right field level? And the answer isn't that it's not, of course it is. All these banks, all these guys are packaging up and distributing it through FAAs, the Edward Jones of the world, the Charles Schwabs of the world. They're getting the same paper. They're just getting a three to 500 basis points, three to 600 basis, point less because of every partner in the middle who has to be paid a fee for that distribution. So there's the wrap fee, the distribution fee, the banker's fee, et cetera.

Michael Weisz: (25:09)
What we're able to see now, is disintermediating some of those costs, some of that process is delivering that value net to the investor. I think the question is over time, how will product design, so the actual investment product design evolve to make it better, safer, less risky, et cetera, for investors? Or at least give them the choice to select different risk barometers. So are they going to pick binary investments? Are they going to pick fund level investments? Are they going to pick something with liquidity? Are they going to pick something without liquidity? I think that's really what we have to think about more and less so about, hey, if it's a $500 million deal and you're getting $100 million allocation and delivering that same trade to retail, isn't that potentially a better risk reward opportunity than some of the other alternatives where they have?

Gil Mandelzis: (26:02)
Yeah. If I may, I just follow up on structure. First of all, I'm a glass 95% full kind of a guy. I just want a couple of optimistic points here that I'd like to highlight. First of all, 12 years ago, the entire global financial system almost collapsed, like we're on the verge of a collapse. And I do think that all the regulators that were part of and governments that were part of saving the system, they should all get medals for the work that they've done. And in truly saving the system, and by the way, all of the taxpayers, all the world had to, in many places in the world, had to bail out the banks.

Gil Mandelzis: (26:47)
And I think that 10 to 12 years later, first of all, we need to acknowledge that we're in a completely different place, and look at what just happened in COVID with all of this horrific, totally unexpected, not just human suffering, but everything was happening to the economy. We are not talking about any bank or any meaningful financial institution that's anywhere near a problem. And the system was operating in full throttle. And I think that that is an amazing achievement that we should all feel good about. And we should make sure that we're continuously, every improvement, YieldStreet and Capitolis and others, we're basically all standing on the shoulders of giants. And those giants are providing this infrastructure that operates, it works. And I think that we're in much better place and we need to make sure that that system continues to operate.

Gil Mandelzis: (27:46)
So that's the first thing. I think there's a lot to celebrate, but obviously on the back of those changes, structural changes will have to happen. If you think about the big changes that have occurred in the past, deregulation of the telecom industry, if you think about the invention of the internet, if you think about the invention of the iPhone or GPS for that matter, those things led to massive changes and those massive changes will come in the financial system as well, especially in the capital markets in the B2B world in the years to come.

Gil Mandelzis: (28:17)
The last thing I just want to say is, I'm a very proud citizen of Israel. I'm also very proud citizen of the US, and that has been very good to me. And I just want to caution us that while the system is not perfect here, I have to say as an immigrant and as somebody who lives here all day long, but I travel abroad, I think there's still a lot to be proud of. And there's a lot of good things in the system, and what you're doing, Michael is amazing and there's a lot of work to do to improve. But I think our starting point is fantastic. And this is still the place where, most nations will be looking up to and will want to come here. With all the criticism and everything that we have to improve, I'd still rather have this conversation out of my office in New York city than elsewhere.

Antony Scaramucci: (29:09)
Well, you and I totally agree with that. I think there's an amazing future for the country, but if we can calm down some of the emotional unrest and some of the racial tension by creating a fair system-

Gil Mandelzis: (29:23)
100%.

Antony Scaramucci: (29:24)
For me, I'm all about uneven outcomes. I loved seeing the wealth that you guys have created and the value that it's in society, but I am really for equal opportunity because we didn't control our parents or location of our birth or anything about our lives until we got here. And if we could just create a better platform of equal opportunity, it'll dial down some of this tension, but you don't need to hear all my politics. We have to turn it over to John Darsie, John moneybags Dorsil, who's got a ton of questions for you from the audience and has a very terrible background in the SkyBridge offices, getting a zero out of 10-

John Darsie: (30:05)
It's your company, Anthony.

Antony Scaramucci: (30:08)
The room Raider judges are piping in, zero out of 10. Why don't you put a printer behind you or something like that, just to spruce things up a little bit.

John Darsie: (30:16)
I'll bring a stapler in next time. I think it'll add a little ambience.

Antony Scaramucci: (30:19)
Go ahead, John. I know you got questions, your audience.

John Darsie: (30:22)
Yeah. The first question we have is around regulation and about... and we'll start with Gil, the sociologist. This is how the question was framed. Do you think financial institutional regulators have in tandem kept up with FinTech's growth in terms of understanding its risks, its applications, its benefits, and how has that impacted the growth of the industry and how will it continue to impact the growth of the industry?

Gil Mandelzis: (30:49)
Yeah, I think it's tricky. Look, when you're innovating is a very easy thing. I come up with an idea and I just going to do it. But if you're a regulator, there is much more to think about, and I had the honor and the pleasure of dealing with many of the regulators globally, they're thoughtful, they're trying to stay up to speed, but they're just, the regulators there's so much that's happening and until it reaches their radar screen and they really understand, and they understand all the implications, et cetera. So the short answer is, for the important things, I think that the answer is absolutely. Yes. If you were to talk about and if you look at the reaction of regulators over time, for instance, to cryptocurrencies, they definitely have had a very thoughtful and have a very thoughtful approach and they're keeping a close eye on it.

Gil Mandelzis: (31:43)
And at the time when there was a lot of noise around high frequency trading and flash boys and all of that. And so big movements and big things that are happening from a FinTech perspective, the regulators are definitely getting educated. They're thinking about these things and I have not observed them stifling innovation by any means. But in the end of the day, FinTech is very important and it's very different not to minimize other industries, but it's very different to hailing a cab or staying in somebody's hotel. We're talking about the trust in the system. We're talking about sovereignty of nations, this is what we're talking about. You could talk about fairness and society, but for this, one of the things that you absolutely have to have is a trustworthy financial system.

Gil Mandelzis: (32:41)
So we want the regulators to be thoughtful. We want to work in tandem and responsibly with them. And I think that for the big thing so far, they have not been stifling innovation, but they have been thoughtful and where necessary, they have been also proactive in their approach. So overall, I think that they've been very good in the various branches of the regulators.

John Darsie: (33:10)
Michael, I want to go to you with a different question. Another audience question. Obviously the pandemic has put a strain on a lot of different financial assets. Do you think that there is any sort of private capital bubble that exists? And how do you build products within the YieldStreet ecosystem to factor in your views on financial markets and areas that might be overheated?

Michael Weisz: (33:35)
Great question. I think that in many ways, even more applicable pre-COVID, so leading into COVID, there's just a tremendous amount of money available in the system and yields were being compressed across the board. You see it in the leverage loan market, you see it in the private capital markets, you see it venture, you're seeing it now in the SPAC market. There's definitely a lot of money out there to be invested. I would say a few things. One is, we talk about investments and the investment ecosystem as like, a specific area it's not, it's enormous. So you've got to think about an asset class level at an industry level and a sizing level. So for example, when you look at, let's look at the public markets for a second, just because they can give us a better analysis with leverage loan market.

Michael Weisz: (34:27)
The top 100 names have all rebounded significantly from where they were in March, but the SMEs in the leveraged loan market, because there's less efficiency of capital, there's far more opportunity there with technically dislocated pricing. You have the same thing in the capital markets. You have a significant number of players that are licking their wounds to some extent, and working through their portfolios and understanding what's going on and how COVID it's impacting. I was on a call this morning with our investment heads and the guy who runs a real estate business, Mitch Rosen was telling me about some of the feedback he had from some of the real estate bridge lenders out in the market.

Michael Weisz: (35:04)
He quoted five names that haven't written a deal since February. They have a tremendous amount of dry powder. They have other areas to focus on whether it's faults or other credits in their book. So there is always going to be opportunity. I actually think contrary to the notion of a bubble that right now, non-bank lenders are really in an amazing seat. There is still concern around the market as to how much credit to extend to small and medium sized businesses to your 200, $501 billion shop. And that means that non-bank lenders and platforms like Yieldstreet can access better quality risks at better pricing.

Michael Weisz: (35:43)
I see daily now that when you think back to early March and late February, where we were pricing transactions, you're 100, close to even sometimes 150 or 200 basis points above that. We just launched a deal as part of roughly $100 million syndicate to a two plus billion dollar revenue business. It's a six month trade with a 10% annualized yield investors. B minus B3 company. Candidly, we wouldn't have seen that deal six months ago or eight months ago. There would have been way too many players doing that same deal at 6%. So do I think there's a bubble in certain asset classes? Yes. Do I think that it's affecting opportunity? No, I think there's better opportunity now.

Michael Weisz: (36:25)
The risks are going to be different across the board, depending on what asset class you're looking to invest in and where you sit in the capital structure and what the underlying collateral is. But I think the time to invest in debt and technically dislocated distress, meaning in areas where there's a lack of efficiency in capital is now, is what we saw in 2009 and 10, I think it's going to be fantastic timing.

Gil Mandelzis: (36:48)
I would say John, on same questions just on the institutional side from our perspective, definitely. I don't know that there's a bubble, but there is basically infinite amounts of capital in the world just looking desperately for yield. And you're looking at, issuances in Europe, in negative yield. We've issued and we've seen our clients issue it unbelievably low rates historically, and even through COVID and where it moved a little bit. It basically bounced back and plus some over a very short period of time. So that's why we're so excited because we know that the origination capacity of the large banks to such investors, is basically infinite. We're talking about trillions of dollars of new investment opportunities.

Gil Mandelzis: (37:43)
We know that the capital is there looking for returns and ideally we'll be able to make those meet. So, hence we don't think it's a bubble because there are true destinations. You don't need something to artificially inflate in value because there is real value there. And there's effectively infinite supply if you're able to structure it right. And to present the right opportunities. But there is, we see it everywhere. We see it in venture capital. We see in every institutional asset class, there is just tons of capital looking for you.

John Darsie: (38:16)
I want to leave you guys both with a question about just the future of the financial industry. You talked Michael about the value of disintermediation and how that cost savings is passed along to the end investor. And that's obviously a positive thing for the investor themselves, but it's also going to lead probably to job losses on Wall Street, and the wealth management industry potentially shrinking as technology enables investors to have more direct access to these products that have typically lived in a more opaque environment, behind a wall of a bank or a wealth management shop, what do you think ultimately happens to the wealth management industry, the financial industry from a banking perspective? Gil, you can comment on that.

John Darsie: (38:59)
Where do we ultimately end up? It feels like now you have these FinTech companies that are disrupting. You also have banks that are trying to use technology to make themselves more efficient. What's the ultimate destination for the banking industry?, for the wealth management industry, and the financial industry as a whole when Fintech becomes mature? We'll start with Michael on that one.

Michael Weisz: (39:21)
A loaded question, I'm just trying to synthesize it a bit. So I think, a lot of people talk about job loss as a result of innovation technology. I challenge that, I think you look back in history, especially right before COVID we were at our lowest unemployment rate in decades, if not ever. And we have more innovation and more technology than we've had before. So I think that jobs shift, profession shifts, things change, society adapts, people do different things. So I wouldn't go right away and say that, hey, just because Tesla's out there, Ford's no longer can exist. All of a sudden Tesla's got enormous employee base. So people still need human output and human productivity to help us move forward.

Michael Weisz: (40:07)
Yieldstreet is growing rapidly. We have over 100 people now and we're going to keep growing. I would argue with that respectfully for a moment, more broadly, I think the notion that FinTech companies are going to pound their chest and Goldman Sachs and Citibank and JP Morgan are going to disappear is ridiculous. Frankly. I think the bigger question is to understand what is the consumer journey today and where does it have to go? And what I mean by that is, if I was in my office now I would pull out of my drawer. I always keep, two cell phones in my office. And I ask people, 15, 20 years ago, what was your favorite phone? And it's either a Nokia or StarTec. And when you look back then, I remember like what we were striving for every time a new Nokia came out was a smaller phone, as long as my fingers could play snake.

Michael Weisz: (41:00)
We went from a Startec to a V-phone tab, even smaller, and now our iPhones are getting bigger and bigger. So there's something more behind that. What is that? I think as a consumer, we were seeking task based efficiency. We wanted each thing in our life to perform as efficiently as possible. So my phone is just going to make phone calls and have text messages. My Palm pilot is going to have my contact thing and whatever else I had in there, my Blackberry is going to handle my emails and my BBM messenger. And today we don't seek task-based efficiency. We seek utility as consumers. We want to do as many things as possible with as few things as possible. And so when you think about the way you experience other areas in your life, shopping, Amazon, et cetera, we look to do as much as we can in one place.

Michael Weisz: (41:47)
If I asked most of the people on this call, how do you track your PA? It would be, "I have one to three banks. I trade in this many places. I have this many managers, I do this, this, that, and the other." That is not an efficient way than 2020 and 2021, we should be managing your money. So the consumer journey has to become much more inclusive, much more efficient, digitally native. And I, as a consumer, have to feel that I'm getting the best options available to me at my fingertips. So if I want to invest in bonds, I want to be able to get them direct and cheap or the best way possible. If I want to invest in alts, in venture and PE, why can't I just, because I don't have $10 million. I can't come into your fund? That doesn't make sense anymore because technology is an equalizer.

Michael Weisz: (42:32)
So what I think ultimately happens is like any other industry, you're going to go through a phase and that phase is going to be now. Okay. When we started at the top of the call, I said, there wasn't a tremendous amount of innovation in FinTech. So if you look at 2000, so our 2010 to 2020, and you look at the number of IPOs, unicorn IPOs for tech companies. There are only two in the financial services world. Two, none are in wealth management. They're both in like debt creation. So when you think about where our world is going, for those of you who track our industry, CB Insights has this list of the top two 50 FinTechs. There are many companies there that are now coming to the cost of a unicorn status are real scale. So I believe that 2020 to 2030 is a golden age of FinTech in 2010 to 2020 was the golden age of tech.

Michael Weisz: (43:26)
But we're going to see a tremendous amount of change now, you're going to have the survival of the fittest, especially as it relates to COVID, a lot of people are going to have run out of cash and not going to be able to keep growing and building. And so what you'll see here are a couple of guys who can come out and really build incredible businesses that are going to be your equivalent of your Facebooks and your Teslas and your Uber's. You're going to see a lot of acquisitions where banks are really going to partner with different players and start to utilize that technology and partner with and appreciate distribution infrastructure.

Michael Weisz: (43:53)
In my world, that's going to be appreciating a new investor dynamic that they've been chasing for a long time, getting closer to retail, getting more diversification, cheaper cost of capital, longer duration capital, and Gil's world, it's going to be, how do we connect deposit wealthy and deposit poor banks? How do we make capital markets more efficient? How do players at all levels able to get access much more efficiently? That's what I think the future holds, sorry, if it was a little long, but it was pretty loaded question.

John Darsie: (44:20)
That's great. The future is long. Gil, how about you?

Gil Mandelzis: (44:24)
Yeah. Look, I think the one thing that existed pre COVID and was accelerated on the back of COVID is software indeed is eating the world. And you will have more technology, you'll have more automation and that technology will enable further democraticization and collaboration and so on and so forth. Which means not the banks are going to disappear. They won't disappear. And I would never bet against JP Morgan, Citi or State Street or Morgan Stanley or others, but I do think that in their current form, they will have to, and they have been evolving. And look at Morgan Stanley's acquisition of E-Trade and look at State Street acquisition of Charles River development and so on and so forth, banks are becoming technology themselves. And by the way, we talk a lot about the disruptive nature of FinTech plaid, obviously amazing innovation. Where is it now? It's part of visa.

Gil Mandelzis: (45:24)
I think that if we think long term, what's happening is further digitization and transformation of the market to a much more open, connected, collaborative technology driven markets all over the world, it's a good thing that ultimately is going to make the markets better, it's going to create jobs, but certain jobs definitely will go away and others are going to grow. I think that overall, that's the big thing. Banks are going to be a huge part of it. There's going to be room for many other companies that will collaborate with the banks that are going to be acquired by the banks. But in the B2B space, I think you're going to find less that are going to compete with the banks because servicing the large asset managers, the largest corporates in the world, the level of regulation, technology, connectivity, global presence that you need to have, membership in exchanges and so on and so forth. That is too complex, I think and too expensive for FinTech to buy.

Gil Mandelzis: (46:25)
This is where you do need the global banks. They have a huge and very important role to play, they'll be there forever, but they're going to be different. And I think that they themselves are basically going to become more and more technology companies. They will become FinTechs themselves more and more than have been already, but we're going to see that more and more. Together with a much broader and collaborative ecosystem of FinTechs and independent companies that work with them, work in collaboration with them, et cetera. So the banks themselves are becoming platforms and FinTechs themselves.

John Darsie: (47:01)
Well, fantastic. Thank you both so much for joining us. We hope to have you in person at one of our future SALT conferences. I know Michael was in Las Vegas last year. We were talking about [crosstalk 00:47:11] maybe we'll have you in Abu Dhabi. You guys are both, you are from Israel and I know Michael visits Israel. Maybe it's a great time to get you guys to Abu Dhabi given the recent Israel UAP [crosstalk 00:47:24] fosters some great innovation cross border.

Michael Weisz: (47:27)
I was there not too long ago. It's a beautiful place. I'll tell you this. You won't have to twist my arm.

John Darsie: (47:31)
All right. I agree with you. Anthony, you got a final word.

Antony Scaramucci: (47:35)
Just, it was a great conversation, guys. Thank you. And we'll definitely get out there and hopefully back to Vegas and we'll see you guys soon. And since you're both in the city, we'll give you a tour of our office, to our better parts of our office. Not necessarily the spot where John's sitting, but I'll show you the good stuff.

John Darsie: (47:54)
Anthony didn't want me to infect his beautiful corner office. So he put me in the broom closet [crosstalk 00:47:59] SALT Talk.

Antony Scaramucci: (47:59)
Stay out of my office. I'm going to spray you with mace. You're going to look like Joe Pesci at Home Alone, if you open the door to my office. Okay. Stay out of my office. Guys thank you again.

Michael Weisz: (48:11)
Thank you. Take care.

Ed Roman: Enterprise Software in a Remote World | SALT Talks #52

“Founders are essentially trying to change the world and build products that create innovation in society.“

Ed Roman is the Managing Director of Hack VC, a Silicon Valley venture capital firm, with the mission of democratizing access to top start-ups for investors. He is also the Founder of hack.summit(), the world’s largest blockchain event, which aims to support technology non-profits.

Silicon Valley is headed in the direction of creating information technology companies, and companies with technical founders are where the best investments may be found. More broadly, B2B software companies have the highest degree of predictability: individual consumers have relatively small budgets, whereas businesses may be drawing from large annual budgets with fewer restrictions.

Hiring and investing during the COVID-19 pandemic may seem counter-intuitive, but tech unicorns like Slack, Square and GitHub we use today were borne out of crises. “The greatest challenge start-ups face is finding the right people.” Hire at a time when top-tier talent is most readily available.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Ed Roman.jpeg

Ed Roman

Managing Director

Hack VC

MODERATOR

anthony_scaramucci.jpeg

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie: (00:08)
Hello, everyone. Welcome back to SALT TALKS. My name is John Darsie. I'm the Managing Director of SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum at the intersection of finance, technology and public policy. The SALT TALKS are a digital interview series that we started during this work from home period with leading investors, creators, and thinkers. And what we're really trying to do during the SALT TALK series is replicate the experience that we provided at our SALT conference global series, which is to provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future, and also provide a window in the mind of subject matter experts for our community. And we're very excited to welcome Ed Roman to SALT TALKS to give a presentation and have a conversation about the state of venture capital investing in a post Covid world. And I think it will be a fascinating and very educational talk for everybody participating today.

John Darsie: (00:56)
Ed is the Managing Director of Hack VC, which is a Silicon Valley based venture capital firm. His mission is to democratize access to top Silicon Valley startups for investors. He has a decade of venture capital experience and as a shareholder and for startups worth over 1,000,000,000 and 17 startups worth over $100 million. Ed is also a bestselling author. And he's been the Chief Executive Officer of three companies with two exits. So he's a founder as well prior to going into the venture capital world. A reminder, if you have any questions for Ed during today's talk, you can enter them in the Q&A box at the bottom of your video screen on zoom. And hosting today's talk before Ed launches into a presentation about the future of venture capital investing in the post Covid world is going to be Anthony Scaramucci. Anthony is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge, which is a global alternative investment firm. Anthony is also the chairman of SALT. And with that, I'll turn it over to Anthony to kick off the interview.

Anthony Scaramucci: (01:54)
Thank you. Ed it's great to be on with you and congratulations on an amazing career. John and I are super excited to expose our delegates if you will, to your presentation, because I think you are right at the intersection of where today's present means to our future. And it's such a great optimistic story as well, Ed. So I'm super excited about all of that. But before we get into that, I think it's important for everyone to just lay out a framework of you, tell us something about you that we couldn't find on your Wikipedia page.

Ed Roman: (02:29)
Sure. And by the way, it's great to meet all of you and thanks everyone for attending today. Anthony, it's a privilege to be in your company and to have this conversation with you. I'm a big fan of SkyBridge and all your work in the past. So thanks for the opportunity.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:40)
Always I appreciate it. Thanks Ed.

Ed Roman: (02:43)
So, yeah. So maybe one thing that you might not read up on Wikipedia about me is that when I first started investing, which is probably about 10 years ago now, in the initial stages basically I didn't have access to a lot of the best investments. And I started off in Austin, Texas as an entrepreneur basically just advising start ups. Just trying to help them out because it is very natural as a CEO to start advising other companies. And when you start advising companies, they ask you to invest in them.

Ed Roman: (03:09)
So I became an angel investor, like a lot of other CEOs do. And like a lot of other CEOs, my very first few investments were losing investments. So I lost money as an investor when I first started out as an investor. And what I didn't realize at the time was that a lot of the best startups were being cherry picked by some of the top Silicon Valley VCs. So that's how I got my start as an investor and went on a 10 year journey to help address that problem and taught other investors to solve that problem, basically. So that's the Genesis for how I for sure started off on this.

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:41)
And it's an amazing story, but you had a game that you developed called Ghostfire Games.

Ed Roman: (03:47)
That's right.

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:47)
So you were in the gaming business and you were in the software programming business for games. How did you make the transition from that into venture capital?

Ed Roman: (03:57)
It was very organic. So basically my mission originally when I was creating this video game company was to help overweight gamers around the world to lose weight playing video games, by tricking them into playing video games and having them exercise as a byproduct of playing that game. So you might remember Nintendo Wii system that came out a decade or so ago. So that system has a motion sensing controllers, you can actually lose weight playing video games on those controllers.

Ed Roman: (04:24)
So my mission was if I can show these gamers a fun game to play, what if they could lose weight as a byproduct of playing that? So we created that game. We created some great games that got great reviews. And I started off as an engineer. I was a programmer and I learned business over time. So I was fortunate to have started three companies that have had a couple of exits and that organically led to me becoming an investor over time. Startups just asked me to help advise them. And then that led to me then becoming an investor in them. And then that's what started my path to become a venture capitalist eventually.

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:57)
What do you like about startups? We know that there's an exciting element to that and you're sifting for unicorns. We know there's a lot of failure in startups as well. And so what attracted you to startups and what's your competitive edge in identifying a winner?

Ed Roman: (05:13)
It's a great question. What's attractive about startups is that the founders of these companies are essentially trying to change the world and are building products that create innovation in society. And we benefit from that by being around people like that, it actually up-levels who we are as human beings. Because think about the character traits of being an entrepreneur, you have to be driven, motivated, hardworking, hopefully you're honest, passionate about what you're doing. That's the kind of people that I want in my life.

Ed Roman: (05:42)
I have a theory that if I can surround myself with people like that, that up-levels who I am as a human being. Because I learned from that, you are a product of who you surround yourself with. The five closest people that you surround yourself with. So I have the privilege of being on a monthly phone call with dozens of startups that we've invested in. And I learn from them, they learn from me and if I can give back and help them to avoid some of the mistakes that I made when I was an entrepreneur, that's a win for me in my life. That means I could be helping a startup to avoid creating waste and maybe shaving months off their progress timeline. That could be substantial in terms of the impact that start ups can makes to society.

Anthony Scaramucci: (06:20)
I actually think that is a perfect segue Ed into your presentation. But before you go there, John, do you have any quick follow up questions before we turn over to Ed's presentation?

John Darsie: (06:32)
I have a question about the Hack summit, which we've talked a little bit about Ed prior to coming on the talk, it's a programming event that attracts tens of thousands of attendees providing free technical education on blockchain and coding nonprofits and things of that nature. What is the future of programming? We hear a lot about programming boot camps and the need to retrain our workforce. How have you found success in combining your philanthropic and business endeavors in that field of coding and getting more people into coding?

Ed Roman: (07:03)
That's a great question. So actually it's something that we'll talk about in a little bit, but the quick preview here is that there's a shortage in America right now of one million software developers. And yet there's some substantial layoffs that have been happening in this country, and there's a lot of folks who are out of work and yet there still is that shortage of software developers. And so this is one of the problems we're trying to address here with our online educational event, basically. So we are essentially helping startups to find great programmers. And that essentially is what's allowing us to get allocations in these over contested and financing rounds.

Ed Roman: (07:36)
So we think the future of where Silicon Valley is headed is in a software categories and information technology, technology companies like Zoom that we're using today for this event. And that's basically what we're investing in. Is the next generation of companies like Zoom and that's built by programmers. So we think that technical founders are really where you want to be from an early stage investment perspective. You look at companies like Dropbox, for example. Dropbox was started by Drew Houston, which is a solo founder, who's an MIT engineer who built a company worth billions of dollars. And we think there's going to be many more companies like Dropbox in the future that become large and valuable that come out of all parts of the country and all parts of the world.

John Darsie: (08:18)
Well, it's fascinating Ed, we're going to turn it over to you to give us a presentation on the present and the future of venture capital in this post Covid environment. And we're looking forward to the presentation. And then following your presentation, we'll get to audience questions. We already have a few that have been emailed in. So we're looking forward to that portion as well, but we'll kick it over to you to share your screen and give us the presentation.

Ed Roman: (08:38)
Great. So here's a little about me and my bio. So I've been investing now for about 10 years. Learned the hard way and made a lot of mistakes when I was early in my career, have gotten better over time. And now we've been fortunate enough to be investor in four companies worth over a billion dollars and 17 of them worth over a million dollars. I've written a book on programming and that gives me a technical background to help evaluate some of these startups. And we also manage to syndicate of family offices that we help invest in startups. So we're helping families get access to some of the best startups in Silicon Valley. And I started in Cornell. That's what my background, I have a computer science degree from Cornell.

Ed Roman: (09:17)
So let's talk a little bit about how technology companies are fairing in this post Covid environment. We're going to start with the public markets. I'm going to show you some data about how public market companies are doing, then we're going to transition to private market companies. So as you probably noticed, we're having quite a bit of a run on the stock market recently. The NASDAQ is at all time highs and there's been a little bit of bouncing in the last few days, but it still has recovered quite nicely from it's Covid debt.

Ed Roman: (09:43)
And if you look at the Dow Jones, the New York Stock Exchange, those indices haven't quite fared as well as the NASDAQ. And one of the reasons behind this is because of software companies. Because of IT software companies. So you've look at companies like Okta and Zoom and Amazon Web Services, which is the cloud hosting, and Microsoft, which is also very cloud-based and Apple. These are some of the companies that are leading the charge in terms of the stock market recovery. Which surprised a lot of investors. A lot of investors didn't think that we'd have a recovery this quickly and it's being led by tech and software.

Ed Roman: (10:16)
So what's interesting here is that a lot folks are wondering, "Is this sustainable?" Like, "Can we actually continue to see the tech companies continue to thrive?" And, "Or is this another .com bubble burst like we saw 20 years ago, which I lived through." So we pulled some data here from William Blair. And this is data as of 2017. And this data shows which sectors were performing relative to other sectors back in 2017. And what's interesting to hear is that IT was actually the number one performing asset class against any asset class that includes materials, and gold, and crude oil. And this is all pre Covid. So there is historical evidence here that even before Covid that IT was an interesting category. And why is that? Why is IT software such an interesting investment category. I personally like it, and there's a reason why I like it. It's because first of all, you're selling software.

Ed Roman: (11:07)
So software is one of those products where it's a 100% margin. Where there's no cost of goods sold. You don't need to actually build a product. There's no product recalls. It's not a onetime purchase. You're subscribing to a service, like Netflix or Dropbox or Slack. You're actually getting a recurring subscription, which means there's predictability to the business. Which means, let's say your sales force is ineffective at selling software next year, you can still probably make around the same revenue next year that you earned this year. Because of the recurring nature of the software.

Ed Roman: (11:40)
And the fact that the software is fairly sticky. So we actually like B-to-B software. We think B-to-B software, business-to-business software is the category that has that most predictability. And the reason is because businesses are wasteful. They tend to spend a lot of money on things that come from large budgets that they have. And you compare that to consumers, consumers have much smaller budgets. They tend to be a bit more flaky than businesses.

Ed Roman: (12:04)
So Zoom, for example, which we're using today will be a good example of a B2B software company, and that has thrived in the pandemic. So that's how we look at public markets and why we think IT is interesting. Now let's transition to Silicon Valley and private markets and look at how things are changing here. So the first question we have to ask ourselves is, is Silicon Valley even an interesting category to be looking at from an investment perspective post pandemic.

Ed Roman: (12:29)
And what we did was we looked at it back in time and we looked at, what did it look like in the previous crisis? So we had a crisis back in 2008, 2009 in the financial crisis. And if you look at all these companies here, Slack, Nutanix, SendGrid, Square, Yammer, PagerDuty, Stripe, Twilio, CLOUDFLARE, and GitHub, what do they all have in common? The interesting thing that they all have in common is that they're all IT software companies and they're all unicorns. They're all worth over a billion dollars. And they were all started during the 2008 to 2009 financial crisis.

Ed Roman: (13:02)
So if investors were not investing during that time, they would have lost out on those opportunities. So we actually think that a crisis is actually a pretty good time to start a company. And there's a few reasons for this. One of the reasons is that it's easier for companies to hire great talent. So there's been a lot of layoffs recently in this country. And a lot of folks are looking for work, which means it's easier to build a team and assemble a team during a crisis because talent is more available. One of the biggest challenges that our startups have is finding qualified team members to help them build their companies. And as soon as the crisis hit, that actually became the opposite.

Ed Roman: (13:38)
Our startups had many more job applications than they had had in the past because of the crisis. So that makes it easier. And there's also less competition when acquiring customers. So a lot of businesses are not doing advertising right now. You look at traditional businesses like gyms and spas and hotels. A lot of them are not really advertising much because of the pandemic. So that opens up the opportunity for you to acquire customers more cheaply. You can even buy competitors more cheaply in case some of your competitors are struggling.

Ed Roman: (14:07)
So when we talk to entrepreneurs and they're thinking about starting a company, we're generally encouraging them to take that risk and to do it now, because we think that in the midst of chaos, there's always opportunity. There's always ways to make money and to build something that changes the world. But the caveat here is you have to be in the right sector. So you can't just start a company in any sector because a lot of these sectors are going to be challenging.

Ed Roman: (14:29)
And this is the quick snapshot of how we think the sectors compare between the challenging sectors and the sectors that are seeing a Covid tailwind. Meaning, the sectors that are actually benefiting from the pandemics. On the left hand side of the challenging segments here, and a lot of them are obvious like transportation, hotels, sports, fitness facilities, spas. Those are the obvious ones. Those are businesses that are physically closed, or people are not traveling, et cetera.

Ed Roman: (14:54)
Then there are some that are less obvious like apparel and luxury goods. You might not necessarily want to invest in buying that fancy watch or that diamond necklace, if you're not really going out as much. There's not a lot of opportunity to show that off. So that's a challenging segment right now. Online dating is also challenging because how do you get to go out with other people and go on a date in the pandemic? So some of these are less obvious than others, but then in the tailwind category, you've got companies that are doing online education.

Ed Roman: (15:21)
So teaching you to learn from home, video conferencing and virtual event technologies, as well as some things that are a little bit less obvious, like video games in virtual reality. People have more time on their hands right now, and they can't really go out as much. So they have to entertain themselves from home. And so those are the types of companies that we're seeing in Silicon Valley that are now, what a lot of VCs are looking at as interesting categories to invest in. Some of the companies that are doing really well right now in Silicon Valley are the next generations of companies that you see in publicly traded markets, but they're now being invested privately by these VCs. And we'll talk about those in just a second here.

Ed Roman: (15:59)
So here's some data that also backs this up. So what you're seeing here in this chart is layoffs in Silicon Valley in spring of 2020, this is a layoff's chart. This is how many jobs are being lost among the startups in Silicon Valley. And at the top of this chart, you'll see retail, travel, fitness, real estate, those categories are having more layoffs. And then at the very bottom of this chart, you're seeing IT having the fewest layoffs. So this again, supports what we talked about earlier about IT, software being like a Covid resistant category that a lot of VCs are excited about right now.

Ed Roman: (16:33)
And a lot of those companies are being highly contested by VCs because they're in that category of digital transformation, which a lot of businesses are going through right now because of the pandemic. So let's go through a few examples of what are some of the trendy startups in Silicon Valley that are thriving post pandemic. The first one is called Standard.ai. And Standard.ai is AI powered autonomous checkout. So what this means is, it is a service that retrofits a grocery store, like a Walmart, for example, or Kroger's and gives them the ability to have consumers buy groceries by just walking into the store, picking a grocery off of the shelf, and then literally walking out of the store without ever interacting with a human being.

Ed Roman: (17:20)
So the idea here is that it's using cameras in the sky to detect what items you're actually picking off the shelf. There's cameras that are built in the ceiling of these businesses. And they use artificial intelligence and computer vision to detect what items you are picking off the shelf. And then on a mobile application on your phone, that's when you get charged for this. So the idea here, the vision for this company is, "Let's actually reduce the cost of food in this country." Because by having a store that runs more efficiently with fewer cashiers, you actually can drive the prices of food down for consumers and really help consumers get access to food at cheaper prices.

Ed Roman: (17:56)
So it's one of those businesses that is helping the consumer to get access to food more cheaply, but it's also a fantastic business because you're helping the bottom lines of these grocery stores. You can even do things like detecting security. So what if someone pulls a knife out of their bag? What if someone tries to steal from the store? Well, you can actually detect that with the cameras in the sky. So there's a lot of potential for this technologies going... This has been kind of a 50X multiple in just two years as one of the hotter Silicon Valley startups right now.

Ed Roman: (18:26)
Here's another example, this is one that's directly benefiting from what's happened in the last few months, is Medina's health. So Medinas Health is a marketplace for hospitals to find much needed medical equipment. So let's say you're a hospital and you're trying to get access to very important surgery equipment and medical supplies, things like that. Medinas Health helps you find that equipment. And then once the pandemic hit, all these hospitals became very desperate to find masks and ventilators and gloves, because those were in very high demand once the pandemic hit.

Ed Roman: (19:05)
And then Medinas Health serviced that demand. So they helped these hospitals locate those ventilators, those masks. And you could see their revenue has pretty much been on a tear since the pandemic hit as a result of that. So this is a great example of a company that's doing good for the world. They're helping people, they're helping hospitals to source ventilators and masks. And they're also a great investment. They're also a profitable company. So that's why we're pretty bullish on these guys. And they grew five X just during Covid in terms of their revenue. So it's been a pretty substantial run for them.

Ed Roman: (19:37)
Here's another example of a company that's doing well in Silicon Valley called Crowdcast. So Crowdcast is like the next generation of Zoom. That's one way to think about it. It's a technology that allows you to host virtual events. So Zoom is more for these little, very informal sessions that we're doing here. We're just a few people chatting. Crowdcast takes that to the next level, they said, "What if we wanted to have 50,000 people together at a virtual event all at once? And let's make a next generation experience around them."

Ed Roman: (20:05)
So Crowdcast has done no marketing at all, and you can see here their run rate has grown again, 3.7 X in about three months, just as a function of the pandemic. Because a lot of folks are not able to attend conferences anymore. And conference organizers are now reinventing their conferences as virtual conferences. So Crowdcast is servicing that demand. There's one last example I'll give you. So as many of you may know traditional education that's in-person education is challenging right now. A lot of colleges and trade schools are closing their doors and they're turning students away. They're turning to online education, and this is also happening at the consumer level.

Ed Roman: (20:48)
A lot of consumers who learned skills at traditional businesses can't do that anymore. So for example, learning to dance is something that a lot of folks cannot do anymore because you can't take dance lessons from an instructor because it's not safe. Because you have to get very close to that dance instructor. And so a lot of the dance studios are closed now. So this company Steezy is a Silicon Valley company that's disrupting that. And they have online dance lessons where you can learn to dance from home. And this is street dancing. This is dancing where you can do it by yourself. There is no partner in this, so it doesn't require that you get near anybody else.

Ed Roman: (21:22)
And again, this company is on a tear due to the pandemic. So they've grown five X in the last year or so. Just as a function of Covid being a tailwind for their business. So these are some examples of companies that are benefiting right now and that are in that attractive category. Now, the other thing to think about is that there's some Silicon Valley companies that are not doing so well right now. That are in some of the challenging sectors and Airbnb and Lime bike are two examples of that.

Ed Roman: (21:48)
So Airbnb unfortunately had to slash their evaluation from 35 billion to 18 billion. So it's about a 50% reduction in their evaluation. And Lime bike, which is the e-scooter company, they had to reduce their evaluation from 2.4 billion to only 400 million. So that was an 80% reduction for Lime bike when they pulled their scooters off the street. And unfortunately this is having an impact on Silicon Valley. The impact this is having is that lead stage venture firms may have invested at too high evaluations into these companies.

Ed Roman: (22:19)
And they're needing to pour more money into these companies to keep them alive during the pandemic, which means they have less capital available to make new investments. So what that means for the other VCs, for the rest of us is that there's less competition. There's fewer VCs making new investments because a lot of capital is being allocated to save these "struggling Covid companies". Which means that if you are investing in new companies right now, if you are a VC that is writing checks, you're able to negotiate pretty well on price. You're able to actually negotiate on valuation because there's fewer options that startups have to raise from.

Ed Roman: (22:53)
So we think that investing in a pandemic is actually pretty good timing from a venture perspective. And this is some data that supports this. So this data comes from my friend, Tomasz Tunguz at Redpoint. And you can see here that the number of rounds of funding have been steadily decreasing. And this data is relevant as of July of 2020. So you can see here, the number of seed rounds, series A rounds, series B and series C rounds have all dropped precipitously especially in the last six months or so due to the pandemic. What's interesting here though is, this next chart shows you that the number of the sizes of those rounds have actually increased.

Ed Roman: (23:31)
So we're actually seeing bigger rounds, but we're seeing fewer of those rounds. And the reason why this is happening is that a few companies are doing really well right now, like the ones we saw earlier. And investors are dog piling on those deals. And they're putting more money into those companies because they're winning companies in the pandemic. And so that's why the round sizes are going up, even though the number of rounds are going down.

Ed Roman: (23:54)
So let's talk a little bit about social responsibility of venture capital. Something that I admire about SALT and about Anthony is that you guys have a very big focus on social responsibility and charity parody, and we do as well. So this is an interesting fact here. So if you look back in 1978, the most common job in America back in 1978, who would have guessed it's actually a secretary. Is the most common job in America back in 1978. This is about 40 years ago now. Number two, being a farmer back in 1978. And what's interesting here is if you fast forward about 40 years, this is what it looked like in 2014.

Ed Roman: (24:29)
So this is about six years old, but still relevant. And look what happened. Secretary is barely on the map anymore. And now truck driver is the number one most common job in America. It's truck driver actually. And the thing that I worry about is that these truck drivers may in the future have their jobs threatened by VCs in Silicon Valley because of self driving trucks. Autonomous trucks could be threatening to this workforce down the road. And what are we going to do about that? I think we have a social responsibility to think about this. It's not just about making money. It's also about addressing the societal change that's being caused here.

Ed Roman: (25:06)
So right now, unfortunately, this according to CNBC, that 47.2% of Americans are currently out of work because of Covid-19 and many of those jobs are not coming back right now. And this is because the companies are filing for bankruptcy. We've had a lot of local businesses in San Francisco shutter their doors permanently. Because of the pandemic. And yet, and this addresses your question earlier John, is that there's a shortage of one million programmers in this country right now. And unfortunately, most Americans are not skilled to fill those roles.

Ed Roman: (25:36)
So a lot of the people who are losing their jobs cannot fill those roles? So the small way that we're trying to address this is we aim to educate the world on the craft of software development to re-skill a lot of these workers, that way they can take some of these jobs. And we do this through our basic a global virtual event that educates folks on the craft of software development. And then what we do is we then place those programmers at our startups. So we have a service called Hack jobs that all of you can check out, which connects startups with programmers. And that also benefits us as a venture firm because we're able to credibly tell the startups that we have access to these programmers and that solves their biggest problem. And that earns us allocations in their rounds.

Ed Roman: (26:18)
That's one of the ways that we're able to fight our way into some of the better deals in Silicon Valley. So it's a good example of how you can marry social responsibility with economic upside and have the two together. Why do you have to pick one or the other? Can't you build a business that has both economic upside, but also social responsibility? And so we're big fans of that model. In fact, at our events we make no money on the events. All the proceeds go to charity, raise money for organizations like Code for America, women who code, girls who code, those are the folks who benefit from our events. We're not lining our pockets with them.

Ed Roman: (26:49)
So that's how we think about the world. So the last section here, before we go back to our fireside chat is what are some tips and advice for, "How do you earn returns in early stage venture capital while reducing risk?" So let's just get real here and talk about the positives and the trade-offs with venture capital. So one of the positives of venture capital is that it's a very patient way to earn strong returns. So if you're patient about it, if you can wait 10 years or so then the rewards can be substantial, but it's a long-term buy and hold strategy. This is not the type of asset where you'll get immediate liquidity. It's for people who are able to be patient and earn those returns, and are accessing equities that are unavailable to most investors.

Ed Roman: (27:31)
So a lot of these Silicon Valley deals are behind closed doors. You have to know the right people in Silicon Valley, you have to be a Silicon Valley insider to get access to them. And if you can get into them, it's usually quite lucrative. And the reason for this is because you're accessing an asset class that most people don't have access to. So on public markets, everyone has access to those equities. And for me, I like to play the game of accessing equities that other people don't have access to. So that's where I think it gets interesting with venture capital. And there are potential for out-sized returns in venture capital. So this is again, a very rare situation.

Ed Roman: (28:08)
But with Uber, if you were able to invest in Uber's very first fundraising round, you would have made 3,100 extra money on that investment. You have turned $10,000 into $31 million had you invested in an Uber's very first round. Now, again, that's very rare. You have to be very lucky to get into an Uber, but it is possible. And it also offers diversification against other asset classes. So if you're building a portfolio of real estate and public stocks, this is a way to hedge against those a little bit. And they're also helping to change the world. You're helping entrepreneurs to do good things.

Ed Roman: (28:42)
Those are just some of the positive venture capital. But then there's some challenges. One of the challenges is that, it's very volatile and it can be risky. So if you're investing in venture capital, there is a high variance, the asset class. And it's less predictable than other asset classes. And you need to be in the right funds. And a lot of the right funds are oversubscribed, unfortunately. So you look at funds like Sequoia capital and Floodgate, and Andreessen Horowitz. A lot of these funds are not accepting additional capital right now because there's so much demand to invest in those funds. Those are some of the challenges. So the way that we think about this is, "Let's look at how these different venture funds compare."

Ed Roman: (29:19)
So on average, a smaller venture fund will outperform a larger venture fund. This data comes from Preqin and you can see here that, as a fund size of around a hundred million, that's where you're getting the best returns as an investor. On average of course, there's always exceptions here. But then as the fund size gets larger, the returns on average start to drop. And the reason for this is because the investors have to invest bigger and bigger checks at later and later stages. And that can hurt the returns a little bit for the fund.

Ed Roman: (29:50)
Here's another interesting graph for you. So it turns out that most of the unicorns are only held by only 36% of the VC. So basically just about a third of the VC hold most of the unicorns. So again, illustrating why you need to be in the right funds. It's one of those asset classes where if you can get into the right funds and you have that access, then you can do very well for yourself. But if you can't, then you probably shouldn't be playing the game at all because it's a very easy way to lose a lot of money if you're not careful about it. And this is some data that shows that. So this data shows different venture funds based on top quartile versus bottom quartile.

Ed Roman: (30:26)
So on average, over the last decade or so the best venture funds, the top quartile have performed at a 19.45% return. Whereas the bottom quartile funds have only had a 4% return. So this is not true in other asset classes. So if you look at real estate and other asset classes, you don't see this huge disparity between the top quartile and the bottom quartile. And we're not even talking top decile or bottom decile here. We're just talking quartiles here. So again, illustrating why you need to be in the right fund.

Ed Roman: (30:57)
So in summary, these are some of the challenges. Venture capital is volatile, any VC could underperform in any given year, and you can invest in a large number of VCs and that can help reduce the volatility. But then picking a VC firm is tricky. You have to be able to due diligence them. The top VC partners can change firms all the time and funds have gone larger. That hurts returns. And access is hard, the best venture firms can be oversubscribed.

Ed Roman: (31:21)
So in summary, what I'll just tell you is what we're doing to help address this problem, because this is something that I'm passionate about is how do we solve this problem? And so what I've been on a mission for the last decade or so is essentially to transform the asset class of venture capital. And so basically what is a better asset class? So what we're basically doing is creating a new asset class out of venture capital through a diversified Silicon Valley fund.

Ed Roman: (31:44)
And what we basically do is we write small checks in to startups and then we build ownership over time, over multiple checks, and that reduces some of the risk. And to this diversified fund, it's not as concentrated. So it's more predictable. We're basically turning venture capital into a more predictable asset class through a larger portfolio. And our goal is to basically aim to access the top 10% or so of these early stage startups. And we invest alongside some of the top VCs at early stages before they get access to them and they mark it up at higher valuation.

Ed Roman: (32:17)
So we're trying to get an early at these low stages and we're investing in Covid-19 tailwind companies like the next Zoom, et cetera. We're focused on IT software. So we've been doing this now for about a decade now, and we have four companies worth over a billion dollars and 17 of them worth over a hundred million. So that's what we're up to and there's other solutions to this as well. So if you're a family office out there and you're looking to invest directly into startups, you can also apply some of these principles to a direct investment strategy.

Ed Roman: (32:47)
So for example, if you were to be investing in companies yourselves, I would encourage you to maybe write small checks into these companies to seek diversification. Maybe have a portfolio of 30 or 40 companies. Don't bet it all on just one company, and that should help you to shield from isolation. So you can emulate a little bit of what we're doing on your own as well. So that's it. If you have any questions you can email me. My email address here is ed@hack-vc.com. And I'd love to take audience questions [inaudible 00:33:15] the fireside chat. So thanks for listening to me today.

John Darsie: (33:18)
Absolutely. Thanks so much, Ed. That was a great presentation. I have some questions and I know we have some audience questions that have both been emailed in, and then we have some that have been posted in the Q&A box. Reminder, anyone watching, if you want to ask Ed a question, you can enter it into the Q&A box at the bottom of your video screen on the Zoom window. And we will answer it as long as it's appropriate and relevant. But I have a question to start things off. So I think it was a very interesting slide you had up. You had Airbnb and Lime bike talking about how you've had some short term disruptions in companies that have really compelling long-term stories.

John Darsie: (33:52)
And I saw some data a couple of days ago about Airbnb is having a massive resurgence in its revenue and bookings. Whereas hotel chains like Marriott are still suffering in the Covid environment. What you're seeing is a phenomenon where people are looking to get out of some major metropolitan areas and rent potentially rural cabins or other properties. How do you go about identifying what is the baby and what is the bath water? And are there other examples that you have of companies that are suffering in the short term, but it just provides a great entry long-term. Is that a quantitative process or a qualitative process that you go through? And what are some other examples that you're seeing about separating long-term opportunity from short-term pain?

Ed Roman: (34:36)
That's a great question, John. So, in general, we have seen that there's a trend right now towards essentially migrating away from the cities. So, in Silicon Valley in San Francisco, right now, the rents here have dropped by about 10% because a lot of workers have realized we can work remotely. You don't necessarily have to go to an office anymore. Even you John were telling me before our talk today that it's about an hour and 15 minute commute each way for you in New York city to get to and from work. And that may not make a lot of sense for a lot of workers. So what a lot of employers like Facebook and Google and other companies like that are doing and Twitter for example, is they are actually allowing permanently their workers to work remotely where they don't actually have to be in the city anymore. And that's opening up the opportunity for workers to do what I call maximizing the virtual office, which means if you work at a company like that, you could theoretically work anywhere in the world.

Ed Roman: (35:29)
Now, some places are more realistic than others. Like if you work somewhere in some Island in the Atlantic ocean, you might have a time zone issue collaborating with your employer because maybe there's very different time zones between the two of you. So I think staying within the same hemisphere makes a lot of sense. Now I do believe that that is going to be a somewhat temporary phenomenon. So what we're predicting will happen is that once the pandemic starts to wane and once the vaccines are ready and once they're distributed and manufactured, which by the way will take a while to do all that. It's not going to be a V-shape recovery, but once that all happens, then there's going to be a resurgence of cities, where people start to return to cities.

Ed Roman: (36:08)
But it's not going to be 100%. So what's happening here is that people are finally opening up their eyes to the idea of a virtual office and how that could be beneficial to workers. In fact, for all three companies that I've run as CEO for the last 20 years, all three of them have been virtual offices. So I've learned a lot about how to run a virtual office myself and learned a lot of lessons about how to do it the wrong way and how to do it the right way. And a lot of companies are going to have to learn those lessons over the next few years. So I think it's going to be a hybrid. You're going to have some companies that allow virtual offices and some that don't and some will be open to a mix of both. And so we do believe that the cities will still have a permanent function and that companies will be returning here. So that's a great question, John.

John Darsie: (36:49)
Yeah. From a SkyBridge, just to editorialize on my end briefly. From a SkyBridge standpoint, I went into the city yesterday for the first time. I live on long Island, like you said, it's about an hour and 15 each way for me. So two and a half hours of commuting every day. I went into the city yesterday. It was nice to be back in the office, but by the end of the day, I said... Given the time that I spent commuting I was on calls and things while I was commuting. I said, "This isn't necessarily the best use of my time. It's definitely valuable to be there at least a couple of days a week, but I envisioned myself working remotely and maximizing my time in a remote environment.

John Darsie: (37:21)
And also from an event perspective, you talked about Crowdcast. We actually have an audience question about this that we can segue into. But from an event perspective, we always had our SALT conference was virtually 100% an in person event. People gathered in Las Vegas about 2000 people every year, fantastic networking in a very insulated environment. We view those events going forward as being hybrid, even in a post Covid two, three, four, five years down the line of having a digital element built into the in person gathering. So Crowdcast, we have an audience question about Crowdcast and Steezy. Do you see those businesses continuing to grow after the Covid environment that we're in? Or do you think growth might slow or what's your forecast for those types of companies after we get clear of this pandemic?

Ed Roman: (38:05)
That's a great question. So, we do believe that these companies that are doing really well based on the pandemic, they're not going to see the organic growth levels that they are seeing today just because of the pandemic. So Crowdcast has done no marketing. They have grown five X just because of the pandemic, off no marketing. Now we don't think they're going to get all that free growth without investing in marketing going forward. So we think that in the future, they're going to need to invest more to cause their own growth on their own without the pandemic.

Ed Roman: (38:38)
But we do believe that there is going to be a permanent need and value for having virtual events. For the reasons that you and I talked about, which is that a lot of folks are now open minded to the idea of a virtual event. The idea of a virtual conference a year ago would have been unthinkable for a lot of conference organizers. And a lot of folks like virtual events, "Do those even work and do I even get value out of that?" And now since it's the only way we can do business, now folks are open minded to it and they're seeing, "Wow, I actually can get value out of a virtual event."

Ed Roman: (39:06)
So we've been doing these now for six years. We run the largest program or event in history, which is virtual. And we've been believers in this for a while. So we've been hopeful that folks would embrace virtual events now for six years. And now they finally are out of necessity. So we think it's going to be a component but not the only answer going forward. We think it's going to be a mix of both. And so for companies like Crowdcast and Steezy that are having this huge tailwind, and we think that the tailwind will eventually subside and they're going to have to cause their own growth.

Ed Roman: (39:35)
But this does a lot of benefit for them anyway. It de-risks their next fundraising round, their traction goes up quite a bit, they're less dependent on investors. They need to raise less capital from VCs because they can get profitable very quickly. And by the way, both those companies are profitable, which is very rare. You look at all these publicly traded companies, they are.... How many IPOs do we see these days for profitable companies? There aren't that many of them.

John Darsie: (40:00)
[crosstalk 00:40:00] is a great example of that. They lose what? Over $500 million a year.

Ed Roman: (40:04)
That's right. So there is a hand full, but most of them are not. And Silicon Valley has this reputation of turning out these publicly traded companies that are unprofitable. And here we have companies that have even raised their series A, that are profitable, coming out of Silicon Valley. So this is a new generation of companies that we think are self sustainable and the pandemic has been helping them in that regard.

John Darsie: (40:25)
So the next question, Steve Case is somebody who was at our SALT conference in 2019 in Las Vegas. He did a SALT TALK a few months ago. He's a big proponent of this concept of the Rise of the Rest, which is that there's going to be... Even pre Covid, He was preaching this. That there's going to be a wave of entrepreneurship and capital that flows to second tier cities in the US basically non Silicon Valley and to a certain extent non New York. So he's helping to invest in a lot of those companies. He has a bus tour that goes around and does a startup competition, pitch competition.

John Darsie: (40:58)
When you look geographically at startups, do you have a bias towards different places? We have an audience member who's asking whether you look at startups in, for example, the Atlanta or Southeast Georgia area. You talked about the Hack summit that you do that helps companies identify and hire coding talent, and you have the hack jobs platform as well. How do you think about companies geographically? And do you agree with cases, narrative that there's going to be a wave of entrepreneurship outside of these hubs, like San Francisco?

Ed Roman: (41:28)
And that's a great question, John. And thanks for asking that, David. So over the last five years or so, I have been trying to help startups fundraise from other VCs. In addition to ourselves who we believe have merit that are not based in the US and not based in Silicon Valley. And as you get further and further away from Silicon Valley, it can get more challenging. So to be realistic, the reason why this is challenging is because most of the VCs are in Silicon Valley and they preferred to not have to travel for their board meetings, because they have families and they're trying to manage their time and they don't want to be on flights their entire lives.

Ed Roman: (42:04)
They'd rather just have a good family life. So that bias causes other VCs to essentially deprioritize startups that are not based in Silicon Valley. Now that rhetoric has been changing over the last five years or so. So what I'm seeing now is that because of additional competition in the VC industry, because there's a lot more VC firms now than there used to be, the VCs are having to get more creative around, "How do I actually win the best deals?"

Ed Roman: (42:32)
And a lot of the best deals are not in Silicon Valley right now. So you look at Salt Lake City, Utah, for example. There was a largest SAS exit in history, in Salt Lake City, Utah, which was $8 billion that came out of there. Where SAP made an acquisition out of that area. And then Pluralsight, which I was a board observer on also based in Salt Lake City, that IPO-ed for 4.5 billion. So Salt Lake City is an up and coming center now. And most VCs have some strategy or presence now in Salt Lake City. New York City is another good example of that. Los Angeles is another good example of that. So there are certain hubs that are now popular from a VC perspective, and it's easier to raise the next round of funding if you invest in a company that's in those sectors. Because other VCs want to invest in those geographies.

Ed Roman: (43:20)
So it's almost like, by having empathy and by investing in the geographies that other VCs want to invest in, you're actually de-risking in the next round of funding for the startup. And that helps de-risk the investments. So now with the pandemic though, a lot of that is changing. So VCs are now taking their meetings over Zoom, and they're a lot more open to where the startups are located. So we think there's going to be a lot more optionality in terms of where your company is based. And now we're seeing fully virtual distributed teams raising their rounds of funding. So it's going to be interesting to see what happens?

John Darsie: (43:50)
You talked in the opening with Anthony about early in your career, you were frustrated by a lack of access. You felt like you were missing out on a lot of great investment opportunities because you couldn't get access to those. A ton of competition in Silicon Valley. Especially when you talk about those big firms that you mentioned earlier, that get access to all the top deals and crowd out potentially some other investors. How were you able to get into the top startups, given all the competition in the market? And we have a question from an audience member, Chris, what are other ways to solve that access problem other than getting invested at the very early seed stage?

Ed Roman: (44:22)
That's a great question. So, basically here's our strategy. So what we do is we partner with other venture firms. So we partner with firms like Sequoia, like Bain Capital Ventures, like Floodgate, these oversubscribed funds. We have alliances with them. And our business model is that we invest very small checks into those companies at very early stages. And by investing a small check, it doesn't threaten these other VCs business models that are happy to allow us to join for a small check because their whole goal is to write a very large check into these companies and we're enabling them to do that. So what we do is we help them find the best deals. We are literally giving away all of our best deals to our friends who are other VC firms to allow them to lead these rounds. And we're co-investing for small checks. And the reason why we're doing this is because we are transforming the asset class of venture capital into a more predictable asset class through diversification.

Ed Roman: (45:15)
So by having a larger portfolio of these small chunks, that's what creates consistency in the returns. That's what allows us to take the volatility out of venture capital. So we actually don't desire to write these giant checks. We're happy to write a modest check. And then if the company is performing well, then we reinvest in future rounds. We build this position over several checks. So it's almost like we're dollar cost averaging our way into this investment. And by taking this position, it allows other venture firms to essentially be open kimono with us about getting us access to some of their best deals.

Ed Roman: (45:47)
So we're able to invest in companies that the general public generally can't access because those other venture funds are oversubscribed and we're able to access them for that reason. And then the last part of this is that the CEOs themselves are demanding that we invest in their companies. Because we have access to all these engineers because we run this large program or conference. You have to have empathy for the CEO also, they're the ultimate decision maker about whether you get into these companies. And by solving their biggest problem of hiring engineers, they're generally pitching us to take their money. No matter how many term sheets they have, no matter how hot the deal is. We're almost always able to get a small allocation for ourselves because that value add is so important for the CEOs.

John Darsie: (46:29)
We have another audience question, you mentioned the idea of investing in startups outside of Silicon Valley and also even outside the United States. And we have a specific question about India. And India I know it's a hot place for technology entrepreneurship right now. There's several companies, Google just invested a significant amount of money in the Jio platforms based in India. But do you have a specific view on startups that operate in India and are there any other international markets that are of keen interest to you?

Ed Roman: (47:00)
So we do invest in India as well as South America. LATAM is a big focus for us as well. We think that there's opportunities to essentially clone Silicon Valley companies in those geographies. One of the biggest risks you take as an investor is how do you risk what's called product market fit? Meaning how do you prove or disprove the hypothesis around your business model? And that's one of the biggest risks that an investor takes. So if you have a business model that you know works, where you know it's a good business model and it's been proven in the US and if you clone that business model in other geography, then you're taking away that product market fit risk. You know the business model will work. It's just a question of execution at that point, "Is this a good team? Can they execute?" And you can diligence that as part of the investment process, by doing reference checks on the founders and by looking at their past work. People who tend to do well in life tend to repeat that success and do well multiple times.

Ed Roman: (47:53)
So we tend to look for what is the history of success that these folks have? Are they winners in life in general. And that predicts whether they will be successful with these companies. So that is one thing that can make it more straightforward to invest in international markets. And we believe that valuations are also more attractive there, because if you look at the publicly traded markets in places like Latin America or other parts of the world, the public markets are not as healthy as the US. So the US publicly traded markets are very healthy compared to like Latin America, for example.

Ed Roman: (48:26)
And the valuation multiples that you see in Latin America are much lower than the US for the same company. If you were to IPO a company in the US versus Latin, you're going to see a much lower multiple on revenue on that publicly traded company in LATAM because the markets aren't as hot there as here. So what that means, you've got to be careful from a valuation perspective. You have to come in at a low valuation and give a little bit of a discount to the valuation, because they're in Latin America. And as long as you bake that into your Math, it can be very lucrative.

John Darsie: (48:57)
We have another audience question. This was actually one of my questions as well. So at SkyBridge, we deal with a lot of families. Family offices are pretty much our largest constituency of clients. And a lot of times when we bring whether it's hedge funds or venture capital funds to these families, some of them have a preference to invest deal by deal, as opposed to in funds, what are the advantages and disadvantages of investing in a venture capital fund versus trying to invest in deal by deal? And what are some common mistakes you see investors make when they're trying to invent themselves deal by deal in terms of due diligence and company's selection?

Ed Roman: (49:33)
That's a great question. So let me answer the second part of your question first. So we actually have a PDF file that we made that gives a bunch of tips for how to avoid making mistakes when you're doing your own investments, deal by deal. And I'm happy to email that to anyone in the audience that wants to hear about this. I'll just type out my email address here. It's ed@hack-vc.com. If you send me an email, I will send you this PDF file. It's called Angel Investing Tips, and it contains a plethora of best practices that I've learned, the mistakes I've made as an investor over the years, crystallized into a PDF document for you to review.

Ed Roman: (50:09)
Then the other part of your question was, how do you judge the difference between deal by deal versus funds and how do I know which is best and what are the trade offs between the two of them? So we offer both at our venture firms. We do both deal by deal and fund investments through our venture fund, to our LPs. And we do find that investors like to choose their own deal. There's something sexy about being able to pick a company and to have some intuition about whether that company is going to succeed. Because everyone comes from different walks of life.

Ed Roman: (50:42)
Everyone has different life experiences, and you personally may have some intuition about a company that other investors don't have. So why can't you pick your own deals? And so there is a trend right now towards doing that, where families are getting more and more comfortable picking their own deals. The caution that I'll give you is that most family offices suffer from what's called adverse selection. Adverse selection means the deals they're seeing are the ones that have already been picked over by the top VCs. And this is the problem that we're actually trying to solve at our venture firm. Because this is a problem that I experienced because I have my own family office. I had an exit 20 years ago, and I started a family office and lo and behold, I got access to a bunch of deals that other VCs didn't want. And that was problematic for me.

Ed Roman: (51:23)
And that's why I went on this journey to help solve for that. So the way you can avoid that, one way you can avoid that is to partner up with a VC firm. And there's many of them we're one of them, but there's plenty of others too, that you can partner with. Where maybe they can be a second set of eyes for you to help you vet a deal. That way you have a professional that's looking at the deal with you to maybe assist you a little bit on due diligence and to maybe help you out with deal flow. Now, the one caution I'll give you is that, and this is something that VCs are pretty famous for and a lot of families don't realize this is that, sometimes what a VC will do is they'll invest in a company.

Ed Roman: (51:54)
And then if the company under-performs they'll then offer that deal to their family offices, to essentially give the company more runaway to help them have more dry powder to turn it into a good company. And guess what? Those are some of the bottom performing companies in their portfolio. The best ones, are able to raise on their own. They don't even need family offices to raise from them. I would look at your own deal flow from a perspective of what is called a jaded eye. Meaning I'll be cautious about your own deal flow, make sure that you have good counsel, a good venture firm you can work with to be a neutral second set of eyes on this deal. And that can help you avoid some of the losses. Investing in funds gives you what's called a fund level protection. Meaning if you invest in a fund you're investing in a basket of companies and the winners and losers offset each other. So the [inaudible 00:52:40] doesn't make any profits, any carried interest unless the whole fund performs.

Ed Roman: (52:46)
So that means that there's accountability for performance. You don't enjoy that if you invest deal by deal. So if you're doing your own deals, the winners and losers, don't offset each other from a profits perspective. If someone is sourcing a deal in there, they're taking a profits interest on that. They're getting a deal by deal profits interest, which is a very good deal for them. So that's why I would be a little bit cautious. It is sexy to invest in your own deals. And we think it's a good thing, but you've just got to be very careful about it. And email me, I'll give you my Angel Investing Tips to help you navigate that.

John Darsie: (53:15)
Fantastic. I think you might get the sexier returns, as you mentioned sometime, and maybe it has an element of excitement to it trying to pick over deals. But you might settle for a slightly lower return, but with significantly less risk in a fund structure. We have another question from Chris talking about SPAC. So we had Chamath Palihapitiya from Social Capital on he's become the face of this surge in SPAC, Special Purpose Acquisition Companies that provide basically a back door for companies to go public versus a traditional IPO. Do you think SPAC will become a more widely used tool? And what is your general opinion of SPAC? Is it a byproduct of the overheating potentially of the private capital world or what's your general opinion of SPAC? And do you think they'll continue to be a popular substitute for traditional IPOs?

Ed Roman: (54:06)
That's a great question. So I will caution the audience that I am not an expert in SPAC. I'm more of an expert on venture capital, but I will do my best to answer. So my understanding is that there's about 110 SPACs right now that are competing to essentially acquire a company and effectively IPO with them. And the value of that SPAC is that you're not just getting access to IPO and giving yourself liquidity, but you're also saving on the fees that the brokerages will charge you. And that's a lot of savings right there. That buffer that you're saving from not having to go through a wall street broker, that's money that you're leaving on the table as an investor, if you go through a traditional IPO. And the other value of a SPAC is that you're actually able to do a primary fundraise for your company as part of the liquidity, which is also attractive because IPO company is basically a fundraising event. You're raising money for your company, so SPACs have that value.

Ed Roman: (54:58)
So those are some of the benefits of SPAC. But then there's also some trade offs and some downsides as well. So we think that there's going to be a mix. We think that the future is going to be a mix of both SPACs and IPOs. I think one thing that hasn't been discussed too much is that there is this emotional benefit that an entrepreneur gets from ringing the bell on wall street. There's something that's very proud about actually going through an IPO that people just want to experience in their lives. So I think that the demand from IPO is going to go away just because of the ego factor of doing that process. Of saying, "IPO-ed a company." A lot of entrepreneurs just want to say that regardless of the process. And a lot of people just aren't up to speed on SPACs. They're not as familiar with it, and they may not be comfortable doing the SPAC because it's a newer instrument and the IPO is the more traditional instrument. So we think it's going to be a mix going forward. And we think there's room for both of them.

John Darsie: (55:49)
I think we could talk for two more hours easily given all the audience questions and questions that I have for you, but we'll wrap it up just with one more quick follow up on that. And it's a meta question about public markets versus private markets. So obviously you see public tech companies are performing very well prior to that, private technology companies were extremely hot, private equity and venture capital were very much the hot dot and you're talking about different ways to go public. Is there really a strong need for a lot of these private companies to go public or private markets developing with such maturity that you're going to just continue to see some large companies remain private for long periods of time and potentially never go public.

Ed Roman: (56:29)
That's a great question. Yeah. So, the trend that we're seeing is companies are taking longer and longer to go public. And a lot of folks are realizing like, "Why would I even want to go public? What is the benefit of going public?" And the most common answer is, "It's a way to reward the employees who are breaking their backs building your company." Because you're offering them liquidity, you're offering the opportunity to sell their shares to other parties. And there are other ways you can achieve that. You can do a secondary offering on private markets. You can have some of the employees cash out that way, but that's harder to orchestrate for a large number of employees.

Ed Roman: (57:02)
So an IPO is a more elegant way to do that. There's a lot of trade offs, so there's a lot of negativity to going public. Like for example, you may have activist shareholders that try to take over your company and you may have lawsuits that happen from class action lawsuits. Because let's say, Elon Musk puts out a tweet that says that there's a good chance he'll get some financing and doesn't happen. That happened in the last year or so.

Ed Roman: (57:27)
And there was a bunch of class action lawsuits that result from things like that, which you have to deal with. So it's all this nonsense you have to deal with as a company because you're under public scrutiny. So it takes about a year or so to just prepare to go public in terms of getting your books in order and all that stuff. I've been through this process before when I was a board observer at Pluralsight and it's nontrivial to go through that process. So a lot of folks just want to avoid that pain and the potential fear of the public scrutiny. So they'll remain private for a while. But then there's this pressure from the employees to cash out. And the VCs also want to cash out. The VCs want to... A venture fund is only intended to last for 10 to 12 years.

Ed Roman: (58:06)
So once that timer expires, at that point you're obligated to produce a return for your investors. You can do that through a secondary sale. You don't need to go IPO, but an IPO is a nice way to do that as well. So there's some of the trade offs. So we think that people are wising up to the fact that you can now have what's called a second class of shares. Like Mark Zuckerberg has this for Facebook, where he can't be removed as CEO because his voting shares have more votes than other shares. So things like that, if you're a really, really hot company, you can do that. Only the best companies can do that, that can elude some of the fears around going public for some of these companies. So it's going to be a mix and every entrepreneur is going to make their own decision. And we think is going to be interesting to see what happens going forward.

John Darsie: (58:49)
Well, thanks so much for joining us. It was really educational, both for people that are in the industry, who might've learned something more from your presentation and also for people who are less knowledgeable about the venture capital world. I think your presentation was fantastic. And again, I think we could do another hour without blinking, but we'll have to have you back on and definitely have you back at one of our future in person, SALT conferences. And maybe we'll use Crowdcast to make it a hybrid event. Congratulations on all your success with some of those investments that you mentioned.

Ed Roman: (59:18)
Thanks, John. And the audience, thanks for tuning in. Again, if you have questions, just email me ed@hack-vc.com take care.

Venture Capitalists on the Importance of Data in HealthTech | SALT Talks #21

“I think healthcare should be a right whether you’re in the Middle East or India or anywhere in the world… why not also have a major impact on the ideas you invest in.”

Three leaders in the HealthTech space joined our roundtable to discuss their careers investing in healthcare, technology and wellness industries. Dr. Vishal Gulati is a partner at Draper Espirit, a leading European venture capital firm; Noor Sweid is founder of Global Ventures, a Dubai-based, growth-stage venture capital firm focusing on investing in emerging markets; and Vasudev Bailey, PhD, is a partner at ARTIS Ventures, a long-term venture partner.

The debate between investing in healthcare to make money vs. guaranteeing it as a right is a false choice. Bailey makes clear these two ideas can and should coexist. “I think healthcare should be a right whether you’re in the Middle East or India or anywhere in the world. I think healthcare is absolutely broken. It’s not to say you can’t make money in healthcare… why not also have a major impact on the ideas you invest in.”

Investments in cutting edge health technology has placed a premium on data which has become the currency in healthcare. The increased data points serve as key inputs in the application of artificial intelligence used to assist and transform existing medical practices.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKERS

Dr. Vishal Gulati.jpg

Vishal Gulati

Partner

Draper Esprit

Vasudev Bailey, PhD.jpeg

Vasudev Bailey, PhD

Partner

ARTIS Ventures

Noor Sweid.jpeg

Noor Sweid

Partner

Global Ventures

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie: (00:07)
Hello, everyone. Welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is John Darsie, I'm the Managing Director of SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum at the intersection of finance, technology, and public policy. These SALT Talks are a series of digital interviews we've been doing during the work from home period in lieu of our in-person conferences. What we really try to do with these SALT Talks is provide a platform for leading investors, creators, and thinkers and to provide our audience a window into the minds of those subject matter experts, as well as provide that platform for big world changing ideas that we think are shaping the future.

John Darsie: (00:43)
Today we're really excited to bring you a panel focused on health technology and healthcare investing featuring three esteemed panelists, Dr. Vishal Gulati, Noor Sweid, and Vas Bailey, who is a PhD. I'm going to read you brief bios on each one of the panelists and then I'll give them a little bit of time to explain more about their background and how they got into health tech investing.

John Darsie: (01:06)
Dr. Vishal Gulati is a venture partner at Draper Esprit and an advisor to Oxford Sciences Innovation. He's an investor and promoter of data-driven healthcare in Europe and has an active portfolio about 20 companies. These companies represent a wide range of technology platforms and applications ranging from digital therapeutics to machine learning and AI. Dr. Gulati is a trained physician and he spent time... that includes time at the St. Mary's Hospital Department of Medicine in London, where he was a Rhodes Scholar.

John Darsie: (01:38)
Our next panelist is Noor Sweid who's a general partner at Global Ventures, which is a Dubai-based venture capital fund working with globally minded growth stage companies in the Middle East and Africa region. Increasingly, Global Ventures is focused on health tech investing is that opportunity set has expanded. Now, previously Noor was the Chief Investment Officer at Dubai Future Foundation and was a founding partner at Leap Ventures, which was a growth stage VC based out of Dubai and Beirut. Noor is a very active angel investor. Prior to her angel investing in venture capital days, she actually founded and scaled Zen Yoga, which was the first yoga studio in the UAE that she later sold to a private equity firm in 2014.

John Darsie: (02:21)
She began her career as a biopharma strategy consultant at Accenture in Boston. Noor is a Director-in-Residence for the Corporate Governance Program at INSEAD and a Founding Board Member at Endeavor UAE. She has a bachelors' degree in Finance and Economics from Boston College and an MBA from MIT's Sloan School of Business.

John Darsie: (02:40)
Our last panelist, last but not least definitely is Vas Bailey, who is a PhD. He's a partner at ARTIS Ventures where he focuses on investing in novel and breakthrough health and life sciences companies. He currently sits on 10 boards and he serves as an advisor to several other startups. He's the founder of ARTIS Ventures' Healthcare Pioneers, which brings together some of the world's brightest minds to accelerate and incubate life-changing ideas in healthcare.

John Darsie: (03:05)
In his past role as venture partner at ARTIS, he helped portfolio companies with their business development and growth strategy. Prior to ARTIS, Vas co-founded and served as the general manager of the GLG Institute. He served as a consultant at McKinsey. He received a PhD in Biomedical Engineering, focused on the use of nanotechnology and epigenetics for personalized chemotherapy in early cancer detection from Johns Hopkins University school of medicine. He's been recognized as one of the world's leading biomedical engineers by the Siebel Foundation.

John Darsie: (03:36)
Thank you all for joining us. A reminder to all of our participants, if you have any questions for the panelists during today's talk, you can enter them into the Q&A box at the bottom of your video screen.

John Darsie: (03:46)
So the first question... I'm going to go around the horn, we'll start with, Dr. Gulati. I spent some time talking through your background and your resume, but could you please give us a little bit more about your personal background and your journey into health tech investing.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (04:03)
Thank you very much, John. Very delighted to be here. I started my career as a practicing doctor and then I did research as a clinical researcher, believe it or not in virology, which was not a very exciting field in those days, but now, it has become very, very topical. Then, I started working at the Wellcome Trust after that and got involved in the human genome program. That opened my eyes in terms of data and how having large amounts of data can open our eyes to a different world in healthcare.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (04:42)
Interestingly, at the same time, venture capitalists around the world were looking for people with those skills to help them, look for investment opportunities. So I got headhunted to work for a venture capital firm where I spent a number of years. Around 2012 or 2013, I started to look at how the ecosystem was evolving from a very different lens. Just the availability of internet and handheld devices had completely changed people's lives. It seemed quite logical that that would come to healthcare as well.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (05:20)
Over the last few years, all that data that we generated also opened our eyes to new technologies, like machine learning and other ways of analyzing that data and making sense and inference out of that. That has capitalized a huge renascence, a generation of companies that have taken that data and applied it to hard medical problems. That is the interface at which I love to invest.

John Darsie: (05:49)
Thank you, Dr. Gulati. Noor how about you go next?

Noor Sweid: (05:54)
Thank you, John. For me, it's more of venture capital. So helping startups grow, supporting startups and emerging markets is what we're very passionate about. My journey started in biopharma, as you mentioned, moved into wellness, at the same time scaling an IPO and a company out of emerging markets. So really it's been a little bit of everywhere.

Noor Sweid: (06:15)
When this crisis hit, when COVID suddenly became a part of the global narrative, what we saw was very clear, which is the financial crisis 10 years ago drove the need for financial inclusion and lots of technology, leapfrogging to allow people who are not part of the financial network to come into the financial network, and we saw FinTech.

Noor Sweid: (06:39)
Now we have this health crisis, which will naturally then highlight the need for healthcare, which is in a past emerging markets. We sit in Dubai, we have the Middle East and Africa is a one and a half billion person population where health care access is lacking.

Noor Sweid: (06:54)
So once we started to see healthcare inclusion prioritize and a lot of the founders across the region try to address this need, and need more and more capital for growth, we decided to lean into that and use our background and our knowledge in the space, as well as our background and knowledge in technology and venture investing to support and enable these companies to provide health care access to the population.

John Darsie: (07:16)
Thank you, Noor. Vas, you round things out for us.

Vasudev Bailey: (07:20)
Great. I've been passionate about healthcare from as far back as I can remember. I started my first company when I was 17 years old and it was in the world of fitness monitoring check. Clearly, you can't tell fitness from this, and I understand, but it was something I started. I went onto the Hopkins School of Medicine, whereas you mentioned, I got my PhD, but I'm also on the board of the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, BME Department, which has been the top program in biomedical engineering since they created it 40 years ago. What biomedical engineering is essentially is where I invest at ARTIS Ventures, which is the intersection of technology and medicine.

Vasudev Bailey: (07:58)
When I left that world of academia and joined McKinsey and company, I had the privilege there to meet Jeff Kindler, the CEO of Pfizer wherein it changed my world and my life because this was a person who did not have great networks in the world of pharma and tech, suddenly changed overnight because I started a business with Jeff Kindler, which was called GLG Institute under GLG. We built what is the world's largest network of CEOs, at 1,500 pharma CEOs working for me at that point and including collaborating with people like David Brennan from AstraZeneca and Shlomo Yanai from Teva.

Vasudev Bailey: (08:38)
The way we think about healthcare is... not say something controversial to start with because many of you will disagree-

John Darsie: (08:44)
We like controversy.

Vasudev Bailey: (08:45)
Yeah. I think healthcare should be a right that everyone has. You should not get better healthcare just because you're born close to Johns Hopkins or close to Stanford University. I think whether you're in the Middle East or in India or anywhere in the world, healthcare is absolutely broken because I think that people who have access to great healthcare tend to do better than people who don't.

Vasudev Bailey: (09:10)
That drives me every day. It's not to say that you can't make money in healthcare, right. Is the fact that we are focused as a venture fund on returns. It is not a nonprofit, we're razor focused on delivering returns to our investors.

Vasudev Bailey: (09:24)
That being said, why not also have a major impact in the ideas you invest in as well. That's what allows me to wake up every day and motivates me to do what we do. We believe that the clear edge you can give innovators in healthcare, which is such a complex web, is through people.

Vasudev Bailey: (09:45)
So my past life of having the CEO network translates into how we give our companies an unfair edge in trying to innovate and move forward.

John Darsie: (09:53)
Well, Dr. Gulati, you're based in London, so you don't have as many of the healthcare costs related issues from a population perspective that we have in the United States and Vas here based in San Francisco. So I want to ask, starting with you Dr. Gulati, a broad question about how technology is changing the healthcare field, helping address some of those concerns around healthcare costs. Particularly for you Dr. Gulati, you're very focused on data driven healthcare solutions.

John Darsie: (10:22)
So how has the collection of data and the harvesting of that data affected and improved health care solutions.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (10:31)
I'll give you a number of concrete examples. I think that the way healthcare is now delivered is gradually becoming much more distributed. It is no longer centralized in hospitals or centers of excellence. It's still more centralized than I would like it to be, but it is gradually percolating outside. So just in my portfolio, the companies put together have helped more than 50 million people with their healthcare needs, which is not the scale I can imagine by starting a hospital or running a center. I just cannot imagine that level of impact.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (11:12)
Then with that data comes additional benefits. So one of my portfolio companies, which is called Ieso Digital Health, it has several hundred thousand hours of therapy CBT for patients with depression and anxiety disorders, which they have now analyzed and now they are the best CBT provider in the world.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (11:33)
In the UK, for example, we have national level data of effectiveness of CBT, and we ranked higher than all other providers because they use the data smartly and we are able to build something out of that. So to give you an example, if the leading drug for depression today was surpassed by another drug that was as much better as Ieso is from other CBT, that would be a multi billion dollar drug.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (12:02)
So we can build value from data which can be then measured against outcomes. Another example is a company in my portfolio, Zoe founded by a close friend of mine, which launched an app very early when COVID-19 happened for people to just track their symptoms. They now have more than four million users around the world. They have published about a month ago in Nature Medicine, what the clinical symptoms doctors all over the world should be looking for in patients who suffer from COVID-19.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (12:41)
So just being able to collect all data has given us the superpower, where we have been able to advance healthcare at a speed which would not be possible before.

John Darsie: (12:54)
Noor you focused on investing in emerging markets, mainly the Middle East and Africa region. There's unique challenges to healthcare access in those places. How is technology helping to distribute healthcare solutions in emerging markets?

Noor Sweid: (13:11)
So I think that these questions are always better answered the way that Dr. Gulati did it. So thanks, Vishal, it's through examples. So one of the companies we recently invested in March, and this was pre-COVID, this was a theory that we had starting in January and in March we transacted into a company called Helium Health, which is based in Lagos, in Nigeria. We were fortunate to have great co-investors in that that are enabling us as well, like Ten Cent, an AIC out of Japan.

Noor Sweid: (13:38)
What Helium does is effectively, it's an EMR for hospitals as well as regulators, but then it also had the patient side. So when a patient leaves the hospital or the doctor, they have a report of who they saw, what they said and what the recommended treatment is. Now, if the patient cannot afford the treatment within the platform, they can get a loan instantly.

Noor Sweid: (13:59)
So the different pain points for patients along the journey that got addressed in emerging markets are very unique and are very real. They also apply to a lot of developed markets. So in Europe, a lot of times it's a treatment that people worry about how they're going to afford that treatment, but there's no platform to say, "I want to tell them now." What Helium's done is really worked with the banks and the regulators, as well as the hospitals and providers saying, "It's a lot cheaper to treat the patient now, when they have the flu, the next month, when they have pneumonia."

Noor Sweid: (14:25)
The uniqueness of Helium is that it's online and offline. So you cannot depend on electricity and internet in most of Africa. The need for Helium is because in Africa, less than 30% of hospital visits are documented. So you have a massive problem in a really large population. You want the data, as Vishal was saying, so now they have millions of patient data information on their platform and they're also solving real problems.

Noor Sweid: (14:53)
They've leapfrogged in the sense that it's online offline. So it's like if you take Epic and the Salesforce API that enables a patient, add an app and put it all together, but it's one solution. It's a 20 year old company. It's my Combinator founder, But he's gone back and said, "Here's a real need for real people," and he's able to leap frog.

Noor Sweid: (15:11)
We'll see more and more of these companies. Again, I go back to the financial inclusion similarity. What's the MEPS of healthcare? MEPS came and it changed the way people thought about financial inclusion and what's possible for finance digitally. So what are the companies that are going to come out of emerging markets that are going to change the way we think about healthcare and access to physicians and really push the envelope and take us from inside our box thinking to outside the box thinking.

John Darsie: (15:40)
So Vas, turning to you, you've published over 30 scientific papers and you hold four provisional patents from your research in nanotechnology for the early detection of cancer. Cancer is an area where you've really done a lot of work and specialized. How does technology and data collection and data analysis really accelerating progress in the field of cancer research and cancer treatments?

Vasudev Bailey: (16:07)
I think we will all have agreement with Vishal, Noor, and I that data is the currency of what will transform healthcare. We're at that unique moment in time where we're at digitized biology. When any of you have taken your 23andMe test or Ancestry what have you done? You essentially digitized what would have always been analog, something which would have been tossed away. We're now have access to that digitally to understand what's going on.

Vasudev Bailey: (16:31)
The same thing has happened with your blood pressure or your EKG. In the world of oncology, we have benefited from that as well, real world data and outcomes of how patients have one, done on certain drugs, but also is there a relation between their epigenetic code, the genetic code, to the progression or incidents of disease?

Vasudev Bailey: (16:53)
We've made tremendous progress in the world of oncology using data over the past decade. So much so that the highlights over the last decade in where we have made advances in oncology include one, we've started to use our own immune system to fight cancers. So the idea of personalized cancer therapy is real. We've double up what is the new notion of cancer vaccines, which we'd never thought would have been possible. We have, in the world of diagnostics, where I'd spent my time in PhD, you see companies now that are coming to life like Guardant Health just went public as a $10 billion company. I've invested in a company called Freenome. Let me also give an example.

Vasudev Bailey: (17:35)
In the world of Freenome, what we are trying to do is replace what would normally be the method to detect colon cancer, which is a colonoscopy. For those of you who have had to go get one, it is very effective, however, it's very uncomfortable and the time and the effort needed to prep for a colonoscopy, sometimes deters people from wanting to go get it done.

Vasudev Bailey: (17:58)
So simple question we wanted to answer is, just what if we could have the same sensitivity and specificity of a colonoscopy that you could just get from a drop of blood or from a blood test, would that be possible, but not just from genomics? What if we were to able to combine genomics, mediconomics, proteomics, but bring these things as multianalyte detection, but use data and AI to help in increasing the accuracy of detection for colon cancer detection. That is Freenome. So we've seen massive strides there as well.

Vasudev Bailey: (18:37)
Rest assured, in the world of oncology, it is probably the area in healthcare that has received the most number of dollars. So we will see the next 10 years or so also harvest some of the efforts that have gone into innovation in oncology.

John Darsie: (18:54)
So for our audience, what do you think a realistic timeframe is? I know curing cancer is not really the outcome that you're looking for, but how do we get to a point where cancer is no longer a death sentence for most people into the point where we can really treat most forms of cancer?

Vasudev Bailey: (19:12)
Cancer is a complex disease. It's a multi pathway disease. I think it's really hard for anyone to say that we will forever put an end to all cancers. I think that we can tackle certain types of cancers and make great progress towards treating it.

Vasudev Bailey: (19:29)
We were the first institutional investors in a company called Stemcentrx. It use stem cell therapy to treat certain types of cancers. Fortunately, this company has been the biggest exit in healthcare venture capital. We're excited to have been the first institution to have backed this company.

Vasudev Bailey: (19:47)
I think you will see novel techniques like that, whether it's stem cell therapy, CARs, and CAR T, you will see the idea of in vivo medicine move oncology to ways in which certain things.

Vasudev Bailey: (20:00)
So for instance, if you had breast cancer in 1990s and 1980s, certain types, I think it would be very difficult... it was caught in stage two, three, didn't have a good prognosis. Many different types of cancers, even lung cancer, before the world of Keytruda and Divot, the outcomes were so much worse.

Vasudev Bailey: (20:18)
So I do think there's certain cancers where you can now be diagnosed early and live your life to the fullest and have your cancer managed. That I think is very promising. I'd be curious to hear from Vishal and Noor, but to me, I think it's challenging to say that we'll ever find like one Pinochet for cancer, where we'll be able to tackle all of cancers at one go.

John Darsie: (20:44)
Dr. Gulati, I want to ask you a two part question. One is a followup to everything Vas just said about oncology and cancer research and about AI. AI has a lot of different applications across healthcare, oncology, and this hits home for me because my brother is a radiologist. But how is AI doing things to improve radiology? Do we still need human doctors? Is it just a tool that is going to benefit them and increase the accuracy of their diagnosis? How is AI being applied across oncology and things like radiology to improve healthcare responses?

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (21:18)
Thanks, John. Just to pick up on what Vas was saying, I agree with him entirely that I don't think that we will have a world without cancer. We may have a world where cancer becomes that much less scary and becomes a chronic condition that we manage rather than something we treat radically, which is what we have done in the past. A lot of these advances will come from small gains here and there, all the way from detection, to management, to discovery.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (21:51)
So it will be a multi pronged approach and we are going to win against this enemy in small battles rather than one big war to end all wars. So I don't think that that's how we will deal with this.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (22:04)
Coming back to your other question, which is about radiology. Radiology has been one of the first branches of medicine, which has been affected by AI. So there's a lot of abuse of AI in our industry. I'm usually a little bit cautious about trying to, in an unguarded way, say that AI is going to transform or change anything. But specific applications or specific type of AI has had some dramatic improvements in the way the data flows, in the way we make diagnoses.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (22:44)
So I have been asked this question before, is AI going to eat radiologists? My answer has always been that, we would, but we haven't found enough radiologists to eat because globally there is a massive shortage of radiologists. So I can tell you from the associations of radiologists in the United States or from the Royal College of Radiologists in the UK, wherever I have asked this question, they have all said to me that there are just not enough radiologists. So if you can do something to take some of the load off us, we'll be very, very grateful for that.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (23:25)
One of my portfolio companies, Kheiron Medical has done just that. They are the first European regulated product for mammogram reading. So they are able to read a mammogram, as good as a human radiologist. What they are now finding in the world of COVID, we had to stop all mammograms in the UK because patients could not visit hospitals. Now we have a backlog of hundreds of thousands of women who are waiting for their scan, which should have happened several months ago. The only way we are being able to deal with this now is by deploying MIA, which is a product for mammograms, right at the front end, which is assisting radiologist as a second reader.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (24:10)
That one end of the spectrum, if you like in cancer. Now, if you try and imagine how we go further, having better quality images from histopathology and from radiology and applying machine learning will help us characterize patients better. If we can characterize patients better, that is better for clinical trials, we can target drugs to the right patients who are more likely to respond in. Then if we have that data, then it is easier for us to identify patients what treatment they need. So I think that that is one end.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (24:46)
Then on the discovery side, we will use all the data that's coming out of genomics and proteomics, which is high dimensional data that human brains cannot comprehend. That can be used using specific AI technologies. We can find relationships in there which are going to help us transform the way we treat them. So it's a multi pronged approach, I would say.

John Darsie: (25:08)
So my brother's still going to have a job in 10 years. That's good to hear it.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (25:11)
Your brother is definitely going to have a job and his job will only get better because he will have a little machine radiologists sitting next to him, helping him get better at what he does every day.

John Darsie: (25:24)
So his wife and my sister-in-law's an emergency medicine doctor, and he gets to just sit there and have a machine given the diagnosis. It doesn't seem quite fair to me [crosstalk 00:25:33]-

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (25:33)
I 100% agree with you. I think your brother is in a much better place.

John Darsie: (25:39)
Noor, do you have anything to add to the conversation about AI and how it's transforming healthcare?

Noor Sweid: (25:44)
So from my perspective, I think the most interesting way that AI is transforming healthcare is that it's personalizing it. So given all the data that Vishal's talking about accumulating, and then layering that on top of the efficacy of different drugs, you're able to ultimately within the information about the genomics of Vas was alluding to get to a point where, as a patient, if you're sick, there's a certain level of expectation that you can have that the treatment recommended to you will actually work for you.

Noor Sweid: (26:13)
Again, like now what we see in medicine is, well, if you are sick, God forbid, you know it's, "Try this," and if this doesn't work, "Try that," and if that doesn't work, "Well, try this." Especially for chronic conditions, you get into this position where, "And there's a side effect and this might work and that hasn't worked."

Noor Sweid: (26:28)
So I think what AI will do is push everything towards, if you have this genomic based and you have tried this before, and that hasn't worked, we've seen the reaction of that on you, then we have a 99% certainty that this other method will work. That applies to medicine as well as to other more holistic treatments, as well as to prevention, as well as to early identification. Because if you have these symptoms for this particular condition, then statistically speaking, based on again, your DNA and your sequence, you might actually also be susceptible to this. So why don't we check that?

Noor Sweid: (27:04)
But I only comes from loads and loads of data that is then being absorbed and the layers and layers of AI on top of that, that gives you this information. I think we're just at the beginning of that. So that level of personalized medicine and more targeted medicine, is something that we all look forward to, because it takes away the uncertainty.

Noor Sweid: (27:27)
Then on the radiology side, we have so many companies in the region and across the world where in developing markets, you have a lot of contributions from well-wishers and people that say, "Here, take these machines." So now we've put these fantastic machines in these remote villages. Then, "You can take x-rays and you can do mammograms, and do all these things." But guess what, there's no one to read these.

Noor Sweid: (27:52)
So you have all those remote teleradiology, as we call it. So then how does AI integrate with teleradiology? Because the accuracy there is not where it needs to be. It doesn't matter how much you've compressed in order to send it over. Again, it's low bandwidth. It's not the internet that we have in some markets. Then somebody else is supposed to read it and send that back. The error rates are much higher than we would like them to be.

Noor Sweid: (28:16)
So if AI can come in and supplement that input and supplement on everything that's done in that space, then that is very much welcome. To Vishal's point, there aren't enough radiologists to eat. So it's definitely something we look forward to because it augments and it supplements, it doesn't substitute as where we come up.

John Darsie: (28:36)
A question from one of our listeners and maybe Dr. Gulati, you can take this or Vas, whoever feels most comfortable, but it's about privacy relating to data. So in a world where AI is eating everything and we're placing an emphasis on trying to gather as much data as possible, but you do have regulation in the United States and in Europe and elsewhere that prevents the oversharing of data, how do privacy concerns factor into the AIs, really infiltration of our entire healthcare system.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (29:06)
It's a very important question, John, I think that there has been a fair amount of discussion around just collecting lots and lots of data. I think with data, as I always say to all my portfolio companies, is the data is not just an asset, it is also liability. Because it comes with a huge amount of responsibility that you have someone's data and how you're going to use that. So I would say, in addition to machine learning, the second most important job that my founders do is constantly evaluate their data policies and their understanding of what data that they need and how to use it.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (29:48)
If we are not responsible in the way we are using data and how we are applying it, we could end up destroying this whole industry. This is a very, very important challenge. This is not a problem that just engineers or just doctors or just investors can solve. This is a much wider conversation with the whole world of, what are the trade offs that we are willing to accept in return for getting what we get. I think that this is a very live debate and very, very active in all my companies.

John Darsie: (30:28)
Vas, do you have anything to add to that?

Vasudev Bailey: (30:31)
I agree that it's important. I think that we tend to work with de-identified data whenever possible. So we have no sense of understanding or identifying what we're learning from. The other part, which you see happening in the Valley today is we're working on longitudinal data that is identical to that of a real person, they call it a digital twin and we're generating data to synthetic that you can actually use. Maybe FDA one day will accept that in substitution for real data. So I think it's important and we're all conscious of it, responsible, and it is absolutely a central principle before we move forward.

Vasudev Bailey: (31:08)
But after the world of AI, just really quickly. I agree with Vishal and Noor completely that we are at the start of what is something really special, but I will say sometimes the word AI gets overused, especially here in the Valley. Is it a simple Excel macro, is it AI? Let's actually really talk about that, it's not really AI, come on.

Vasudev Bailey: (31:31)
But if it is, I'll say, you find AI in a lot of strange places and unexpected places where you would not expect. I invested in a company called Eko, E-K-O, which is changing your humble stethoscope. For the past 200 years, a stethoscope hasn't changed. Think about that. Someone is manually listening to your heart and lungs to tell you something is wrong with you.

Vasudev Bailey: (31:56)
What if you could now have the largest database of human sounds, heart sounds, lung sounds, and EKG data, and you truly use machine learning and AI and the algorithms could do better than four out of five cardiologists in detecting and classifying murmurs. You could do an injection fraction, you could do in the world of COVID not be in contact with the patient and yet diagnosis is a crackle or what is going on with your lungs.

Vasudev Bailey: (32:24)
That, I think, is a great application of AI at work, not just here in San Francisco, but anyway. You could be in Nigeria, you could be in the Middle East, you could be anywhere in the world and you are actually scaling up the use of AI. This company has seven FDA approvals, five of which have been in the world of algorithms or AI. They've been able to leave that. We've seen in the world code that another accelerant to the adoption of AI in the world of medicine.

Vasudev Bailey: (32:52)
The last comment I'll have there is, just because you can create something with AI doesn't mean it'll get used by physicians across the world. The key question they should ask is, "Who's going to pay for it? Does it fit into the workflow of physician?" Important principles as you design AI. If anyone's looking to create the next AI solution, do think about that early, because otherwise, it's just cool technology that'll never get used by anyone.

John Darsie: (33:22)
That's fascinating. Let's turn to COVID for a few minutes. I'm sure that's a subject that's at the top of people's minds. So you guys are obviously in the healthcare investing space, the health tech space. We'll start with Dr. Gulati. What's the outlook and timeframe for developing effective therapies, which is obviously one piece that could help us reopen our economy's a little bit sooner? What's the outlook and potential efficacy of vaccines for the COVID-19 virus.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (33:49)
Thanks, John. I think it is a very topical question and it's not just a million dollar question, it is not a billion dollar question, it's a hundreds of billion dollar question right now if you look at the economic impact of COVID. The human impact is incalculable.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (34:06)
So in my mind, there are three stages of how we get out of this. The first stage was to try existing drugs to see if any of those work. We have had some things that worked, but by and large the effects are [crosstalk 00:34:25]-

John Darsie: (34:25)
What about President Trump's favorite drug, Dr. Gulati?

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (34:27)
Unfortunately, even though I was very optimistic early on, the data just does not support that hydroxychloroquine has any benefit. So I'm afraid, Mr. Trump will have just built millions of these tablets sitting somewhere in a storeroom in White house. I doubt if they will be of any benefit to anyone.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (34:53)
So the first generation, if you like, the effect sizes have not been huge. Remdesivir, the effect size is not huge. It is something when we have nothing, then we have dexamethasone, which has a higher effect size than Remdesivir, but still not high enough, I would say.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (35:14)
The second generation is the new products that we might develop now specifically, and where I'm very optimistic are a number of antibody treatments. This is passive immunization where people will get specific antibodies, which are Lilly's making one, Regeneron is making one, and they're heading some experience or from Ebola, for example, that such treatments could work.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (35:39)
What I'm trying to look for as well as the therapeutic window, is it something you've given someone's exposed or do you give it at a later stage? So we will find out what that is.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (35:49)
So coming to the vaccines, I am more optimistic about vaccines than not have been in the last few weeks or a month. I think that the data that we are seeing particularly from the Oxford group is actually very, very good. I looked at the data that came out from the animal experiments, and I think that they have been able to show pretty good antibody response and pretty good T-cell response. So I'm very hopeful.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (36:20)
What we don't know and no one knows is when we will have sufficient number of COVID infections in the control group to be able to say that the treatment group works. So we don't know whether that will happen in September, October, November, when that will happen.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (36:36)
Unfortunately, in many parts where they were doing clinical trials, the transmission rates have gone down. So actually, your control group is not getting any cases. So you can't really tell whether your vaccine works.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (36:48)
So long story short, I'm optimistic about vaccines. I can't tell you how many or if any vaccines we will have in this year, but I'm very optimistic that in 2021, we will probably have more than one vaccine that will have sufficient level of efficacy that is, at least, being given to high risk patients.

John Darsie: (37:13)
So what you're telling me is SALT Abu Dhabi, our conference that we had last December, we're probably not having any in-person SALT conference in the UAE in 2020, and that no [crosstalk 00:37:23] conference last year-

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (37:25)
I'm afraid. I don't think I have good news for you.

Noor Sweid: (37:30)
But, [inaudible 00:37:31], John, you're going to have new one in Vegas next year, which you have to count on.

John Darsie: (37:34)
Hopefully. Inshallah, as they say. Noor, at Global Ventures, have you guys been working on things related to COVID?

Noor Sweid: (37:42)
I think that the UAE is a very special place and there's been multiple responses across the different Emirates for COVID. I think that the contact tracing is a lot more interesting in some of these markets right now than the therapeutic response, which we're leaving to the Lillys of the world.

John Darsie: (38:05)
Ross, how about you? Have you been helping us with the virus at all?

Vasudev Bailey: (38:08)
Yeah, so in February and March, when we started seeing leaders of certain countries go out and promote drugs, but before clinical trials, without naming people, it was important for us to step in and actually do something about it. So we built, at ARTIS Ventures, a comprehensive innovation tracker for the world of COVID.

Vasudev Bailey: (38:30)
So we have tracked every diagnostic, therapeutic, and vaccine that has been created in the world to fight the pandemic. I can tell you, as of today, there are 331 diagnostics that are received EUA or some regulatory approval. There are 145 therapies or treatments. Many of them repurposed, like Vishal mentioned, that are in human trials. There are 31 vaccine candidates that are in human trials as we speak today.

Vasudev Bailey: (39:00)
With that, I would say, we keep a close eye. There are two ways to think about innovation here. Noor is absolutely right. The first one is a public health response. What can you do? Whether it's better masks, better contact tracing stuff to help prevent things. So that's number one. That is sometimes easier to implement and it should happen.

Vasudev Bailey: (39:21)
The second is where we're focusing, investing more leverages in the therapeutics as well as diagnostics. It's the healthcare innovation, which can put an end to the pandemic, hopefully. Well, I would agree with Vishal that I started off a little more skeptical on the vaccine stuff, and I never thought that we'd be able to even get into phase three trials. But then a year it's promising to see that there are two phase three trials that are currently ongoing and we could get data read ups as early as September.

Vasudev Bailey: (39:49)
What is worth noting to everyone is even if we had really positive data for the vaccines this year, it's really hard to manufacture. You can't really manufacture for the mass markets and scale and the supply chain is not built for us to be able to distribute this to everyone.

Vasudev Bailey: (40:04)
But it gives me hope to say that with the vaccines that we made progress in the world of therapeutics, I'm not surprised because we're repurposing drugs to ever found something that would put an end to it. But I'm happy that we have identified things that can help alleviate certain, at least if you're put on a ventilator, it can be made a little bit better and hopefully you'll find other breakthroughs there as well in terms.

John Darsie: (40:30)
In terms of the global society and our approach to how to slow the spread of the virus and how to eventually, develop immunity to it and move past it, there's been some debate about what the right approach is. Sweden, as an example, in particular, that decided to adopt an approach where they weren't going to shut everything down. They were going to try to develop some level of herd immunity.

John Darsie: (40:49)
The virus is obviously something, it's novel. We don't know much about it, but the returns from Sweden have shown that it didn't really spare their economy and they haven't really developed the type of immunity that they were hoping for.

John Darsie: (41:00)
Dr. Gulati, did we make the right decision to shut things down and have these rolling quarantines, or we're going to have to quarantine again in places like Texas and Arizona that had these huge spikes in cases, or is a herd immunity type approach the right approach?

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (41:17)
John, I'm not in favor of the herd immunity approach. I think a lot of the data supports that now. A lot of the herd immunity debate is based around number of deaths. People are saying the fatality rate is X or Y so if we let everyone get infected. It misses two very important points.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (41:41)
One is that, this disease does not affect everyone in the same way. There are huge variations in who gets this and who doesn't. People in certain jobs, which are generally lower paid jobs, there are a lot of immigrants work, those people are exposed more to this and the impact of this is going to be much, much greater. We should think about the ethical consequences of taking such decisions.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (42:07)
The other thing which is often missed is that, just because you don't die of COVID-19 doesn't mean everything is okay. We now see the consequences of chronic lung disease, we're seeing neurological complications of COVID-19. So it's not just that, "Oh, it's okay. Just a bunch of old people are dead." It's a lot of old people are dead and you have a huge population of young people who have chronic lung and brain disease. I do not believe that that is the right way to go, but that is my view.

John Darsie: (42:42)
Vas, do you have anything to add to that?

Vasudev Bailey: (42:45)
100% I agree.

John Darsie: (42:47)
So I have a question. During this quarantine, like a lot of other people, I said, "You know what, I want to use this time at home to get healthy." So I started looking at the wearable device market and I said, "Okay, I don't have an Apple watch or a Fitbit. Let me look out there and see what's out there." It was actually a very interesting fact finding mission.

John Darsie: (43:04)
There's a couple of devices, the WHOOP, for example, that the PGA Tour or the Golf Tour in the United States, some players are wearing it. One player while wearing it was able to get readings into his app that basically indicated early signs of COVID. He tested positive for COVID. At the NBA Basketball, they're encouraging their players to wear the oura ring, which is another device that can provide early detection signs for COVID and other diseases.

John Darsie: (43:30)
What is the future of the wearables market and how does that contribute to this data driven future within healthcare? Vas, we'll start with you on that.

Vasudev Bailey: (43:41)
I say the wearables market is very tricky. There is an immense, like excitement and adoption from the hype cycle created for people to want to adopt it. Then past that, how many people... Well, I don't have to add the market research shows that people who had Fitbit stopped using it after six months. That is the case why Fitbit doesn't exist today as Fitbit, because you know what, it's hard to sustain as a company with these wearables over a long period of time.

Vasudev Bailey: (44:10)
I'm not saying variables as a category is a bad category. I don't know if people have found out like what psychologically makes people think that there's not the next device for you to try out. How is the action coming from these devices going to truly change and transform your life? I like ordering these things just because I'm fascinated by them. So I probably opened my closet. I have I think from Stanford, like a pebble, which measures your breathing rate. I have things called [Camigo 00:44:39], which does breathing exercises and meditation. I have things like the ring to measure things.

Vasudev Bailey: (44:44)
So I've tried all of them, but I probably use them for a couple of weeks. None of them are... or even for sleep apnea, you can have an app to try and listen to your breathing and snoring. I did not snore last night, if anyone was curious. So, which is really good, maybe it my caffeine or content. But I'm not sure or overall how useful it is to transform my life.

Vasudev Bailey: (45:07)
So the key thing I'd say is, if you're innovating in the space, always for people coming up with novel solutions, just answer the simple question, "How are you going to add prolonged value to the person using it beyond that first six months of fascination?" If you answered that you do truly do have a business that is worth it.

Vasudev Bailey: (45:28)
For the COVID world, the last part that I'll add, I think is useful. I do think connected devices and connected assistance. Because telehealth without sensors is just Skype and talking to a patient. So the idea of wearables or sensors, alarms are very useful and should be integrated into medical practice.

John Darsie: (45:50)
Skype might say some hypochondriacs, a few trips to the doctor though, don't discount the value of Zoom or Skype. Noor, are you guys looking at wearables at all? Or you have an opinion?

Noor Sweid: (46:01)
Both. Yes. So option D, all of the above. So wearables, in general at large, I think, to Vas' points, "What value do you bring to my life as a wearable beyond novelty." But I think more importantly that the accuracy of the data capture varies from one wearable to another. Until people are convinced that this is actually it'll be accurate, and based on this data, there is some angular outcome for me. It's always an interesting novelty outcome.

Noor Sweid: (46:32)
No one would have can't now that's actually really interesting, is in the FinTech space and it helps a woman and it's more like a wearable. So it's the undergarments, they are on the bras measuring different things that are important for women with breast cancer, for hearts.

Noor Sweid: (46:52)
Again, going back to the woman versus men. So you have to think on FinTech side, you'll have a lot happening and there's a lot in general medicine and healthcare where people have come forward and said, "I could move on these miles, and the moment they look very different, if we only one run man." And guess what? 95% on the one run man.

Noor Sweid: (47:10)
So now you're coming back to all of these wearables and all this data capture for females round the world, not just males to say, "How is this different? What data can we capture? How are women's hearts different to men's hearts?" However, the faster we capture that data, the better medicine we can provide for women around the world and the fastest way to capture that data is wearables at this point.

Noor Sweid: (47:33)
So it's really a data capture exercise that people are plugging into. So we're looking at a few. The one I mentioned is coming out of MIT, so you're seeing a lot, but they have to be very focused on, "Here's the value I'm adding, here is how long you need to do this for," either it's a treatment or it's prevention, but it has the beyond the novelty.

John Darsie: (47:54)
So we have a couple of audience questions before I let you guys go. Dr. Gulati, the first one's for you. What's the best approach for a clinical physician to get started in venture capital, if you don't have a business background? What was that transition like for you?

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (48:08)
Thanks for this question. I've been asked this question a few times and I find that most people I know who are in VC, none of their journeys are ever representative. In other words, there isn't like a cluster of things that they have done. So in this call, there are three investors. Noor, Vas, and I, all three have had very different journeys to get to doing exactly the same job in different parts of the world.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (48:40)
So there isn't a highly representative way how a physician or a scientist can become a venture capitalist. What I find common in the colleagues that I work with and people in my industry is that, if you will come from a medical background, you generally have a research background with it. You're not just a physician who's a frontline physician. So you've had some encounter about developing new things and you have that excitement of making something new. I think that that helps you do that.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (49:17)
Also, when you first leave medicine and go into venture capital, it is actually quite disconcerting because venture capital is... healthcare or a bigger doctor is very specialized. So you have a very, very niche specialty. So for example, my specialty was a certain type of immune cell, which is only found in the liver and it responds to only one type of virus. So that was my specialty.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (49:43)
But when you go into venture capital, you can no longer afford to have a specialty which is that narrow. So you have to retrain yourself in order to learn new things really, really fast. If that is the attitude you have, and that is the life you want, then I think you should definitely consider venture capital.

John Darsie: (50:02)
Next question is for Vas. You're on the board of a project called the Trevor Project, which is a company that provides mental health counseling to young LGBTQ individuals. As we know, technology can be a double edged sword and the impact it has on young people's brains. Vishal, touched on this earlier, how can technology be leveraged in a positive way to positively affect our mental health? During the COVID-19 crisis, it's especially relevant as people sit and stir in their homes.

Vasudev Bailey: (50:35)
Yeah, I think mental health is still so taboo in so many markets and people wanting to seek help is... and having even grown up in India, I can tell you that the idea that depression is something, "Is it real or something is wrong with you?" It's just almost... even an educated families. That was partly what motivated me to be part of an organization.

Vasudev Bailey: (50:58)
Even as an investor, I look and seek for things, and I'll connect Vishal about what he's working on in the mental health space, as he said he is. But in terms of technology, being an enabler to help in preventing... like you'd look at the United States, it was fascinating for me to find that the number one cause of death for people under the age of 21. So for youth, one of the major causes is a suicide and it is absolutely preventable, is absolutely one where we can help and provide the tools and methods to help and even if you save one life, it is something we have done right.

Vasudev Bailey: (51:35)
Technology has been an important part. So with Trevor, the way in which they've done that is one, they started off as an organization by providing phone support. But now they moved into using technology by using chat-based support because that is where younger people are moving. But you see where technology is being used as they even have NLP, as a natural language processing, without identifying, with anonymous, but you could still pick up triggers and understand who has a higher propensity of taking their own life. So you know where and how you can intervene.

Vasudev Bailey: (52:09)
But not just that you have a clinical path of how to respond as well. When you learn from a machine time and time, humans may have a different way of responding to a certain question someone has asked, but a machine is very clinical about it and tells you exactly how you should respond for the best outcome.

Vasudev Bailey: (52:27)
So you can train mental health professionals to also respond in certain ways that gives you the best possible outcome.

John Darsie: (52:35)
Well, thank you all so much for joining us from different parts of the world, Dr. Gulati from London, Noor from Dubai, and Vas from San Francisco. That's the pleasure of just work from home environment is that we've been able to have a lot of these conversations that might not have happened if not for the circumstances. So thanks everybody for tuning in. Noor, Dr. Gulati, Vas, thanks again for joining us.

Dr. Vishal Gulati: (52:56)
Thanks John.

Noor Sweid: (52:57)
Thank you.

Kai-Fu Lee: The Potential for AI in Healthcare | SALT Talks #10

“Artificial Intelligence is very powerful, but also very limited. With good data, AI can do far better than people. But it will never have the capability to think, to be self-aware or to have the creativity humans have.”

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee is the Chairman & Chief Executive Officer of Sinovation Ventures, a leading venture capital firm. Before this, Dr. Lee held various leadership roles at Microsoft, SGI, Apple and most recently Google, where he was the president of their China business.

Artificial Intelligence has tremendous power to help humans do their jobs better. Yes, some “routine” jobs can and may be replaced by AI, but most will be supplemented by its presence. AI can handle System 1 tasks (repetitive, routine), whereas humans beings will handle System 2 tasks (thinking, analysis).

The next big opportunity for AI is in health care. Here in the United States, it can synthesize health records and analyze bodily function far more accurately than physicians. In third world countries, AI can bring doctors to places that may never have had them before.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

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Kai-Fu Lee

Chairman & CEO

Sinovation Ventures

MODERATOR

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Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie (00:08):

Welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is John Darsie. I'm the managing director of SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum that encompasses finance, technology, and geopolitics. With the SALT Talks, we try to do what we do at our in person SALT conferences, which is to provide a platform for big exciting ideas, as well as to provide our audience a window into the minds of subject matter experts. Today, we are pleased to welcome Dr. Kai-Fu Lee to SALT Talks. Dr. Lee spoke at SALT 2019 about artificial intelligence and machine learning.

John Darsie (00:47):

It was a fascinating talk that was led actually by Anthony's son, AJ. Kai Fu is the chairman and chief executive officer of Sinovation Ventures, which is a leading venture capital firm with about two billion in AUM, and it focuses on the development of the next generation of China's high-tech companies. Prior to founding Sinovation in 2009, Kai-Fu was the president of Google China, as well as a senior executive at Microsoft, SGI, and Apple.

John Darsie (01:18):

He's the co-chair of the Artificial Intelligence Council for the World Economic Forum and is the author of a New York Times bestselling book, which I highly recommend you read. It's called AI Superpowers. It was published in the fall of 2008, and Dr. Lee tells us that his next book is coming out in about a year and a half. And we look forward to reading that one as well. Kai Fu will be interviewed today by Anthony Scaramucci, the founder and managing founder of SkyBridge Capital, as well as the chairman of SALT.

John Darsie (01:46):

And I'll turn it over to Anthony and Kai-Fu now to begin the interview.

Anthony Scaramucci (01:51):

John, thank you very much. I think Kai-Fu's book was 2018, the fall of 2018, not 2008. So it was a way more current book, but it was a fascinating discussion about artificial intelligence. And I want to start with your origin, Dr. Lee, if you don't mind, because I think it's always fascinating for people. You mentioned at the SALT Conference that you sort of got interested in AI in your sophomore year in college. And so just take us through the steps of what you were thinking about then and how it led to where you are now.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (02:26):

Sure. Anthony, thank you, and John, for giving me the chance to talk to this great audience. Yeah, I got fascinated back in about 1980, my sophomore year, while I went to Columbia. And I was given an introduction to artificial intelligence, and I thought this would be the last technology for humanity. That we will figure out our brain and then we would build these amazing robots and life would be wonderful. Didn't quite work out that way. I think there are people who have those either dystopian or utopian beliefs about AI.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (03:06):

But what really happened in the last five years is all these AI-based machine learning technology started to work, and they started doing amazing job one task at a time. But these are amazing tools for us to use, but we are actually nowhere close to building that artificial general intelligence, something that's equal to our brain.

Anthony Scaramucci (03:35):

Obviously I've sat it on things at Singularity University and listened to Elon Musk. We hear about artificial intelligence, and you and I are old enough to remember the computer from 2001 Space Odyssey. What is realistic for us? What is realistic for people living on the planet today in terms of where artificial intelligence can go? And what will our grandchildren and our great-grandchildren see from the world of artificial intelligence in terms of the exponential development?

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (04:11):

Right. AI is actually very powerful, but also very limited. It's powerful in the sense that if you have one single domain in which you have a lot of data and you throw that data at AI and tell it to learn something, something objective, something meaningful, and it will do that task better than people. The first wave of such applications was the internet. That's why Google, Facebook, Amazon are so good at targeting us individually based on what we've done in our history about things that we might want to read or we want to buy.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (04:49):

Then came the financial institutions. So automated loans and investment, quantitative investment, and insurance, they're coming up next. And then data in businesses. We're using Zoom now. We're creating data. That data can be mined. Smart things can be built from that for education, work, business, and pretty much any tradition industry. This is all happening right now. This is not for our grandchildren. This is happening now. Then AI will start to see and hear, but not just with eyes and ears.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (05:30):

AI can already recognize objects at higher accuracy than people and understand and recognize speech at higher accuracy than people. But what's more is now there are all these new sensors being plugged to AI, so AI can make decisions by aggregating all these sensors. The sensors can, for example, see things that people cannot see. They can sense temperature, humidity. They can do 3D reconstruction. So pretty much AI perception will definitely outdo human perception. Then finally, AI will move.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (06:08):

Of course, we already have our beloved Roomba, but AI will do much better than that. Beyond that, AI will be in the factory, warehouse, buses, highway, and then eventually cars, autonomous vehicles, so that it can move with a similar capability as people. You have these four waves adding up together building a lot of very valuable tools and applications to help us. But none of it has the capability of thinking, self-awareness, true understanding, compassion, creativity. All of that is missing.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (06:49):

It is simply taking one task, lots of data, with human telling it what to optimize, and then optimizing it so well that for that task it beats people.

Anthony Scaramucci (07:00):

Let's talk about that other wave though. Is it possible, Dr. Lee? I've obviously read your book, but I want you to explain it to others about the consciousness, about the empathy, the ability to change conversation, picking up emotional cues or body language from somebody. Is that something in the future for AI?

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (07:22):

Okay. So we need to segment that into a few things. The true feeling, the way we feel, the consciousness, the self-awareness that we have, we currently have no idea how to build that for AI. So that could be 20 years, 30 years or longer away. We don't know. But it's probably not soon because we have no idea how to build that at all. However, can AI guess our emotion? Probably, because we give a lot of cues and AI can notice these small cues better than people.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (07:58):

So if you want to build a tool that has you and me talking to each other and have AI guess at any given period of time whether I was anxious, happy, sad, angry, suspicious, it can probably make a more accurate guess than people. Then can AI can pretend to be angry and happy? Well, of course, it can. If you have AI create a digital human that looks like us... You've all seen Deepfake. That's AI. We can build a Deepfake on Anthony and make that Deepfake speak like Anthony and appear angry or appear happy. So that is also possible.

Anthony Scaramucci (08:45):

I want you to make me happy, Dr. Lee. Okay? We'll focus on the whole Buddhist element of that.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (08:52):

Right. Right. We'll make sure we do that. I think this is really amazing that... The surprising thing about AI is for something that has absolutely no self-awareness, no human brain, and no feeling, it can exhibit feeling and perceive feeling. So that's the strangeness of AI. Similarly, you think AI machine translation works so well better than us. However, it doesn't really understand a word you say. It is merely mapping words to other words, having been trained on trillions of other words.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (09:32):

This is all data driven mechanism that exhibit somewhat intelligent behavior, but has no real understanding. It is just matching symbols and giving you other symbols.

Anthony Scaramucci (09:46):

But over the last 40 years while you've been studying and working on AI, you've obviously learned a lot about the human brain. Is the brain a computer, Dr. Lee? How would you describe the brain to somebody? If an alien landed here and you would say, "Okay, the human brain is," what based on your observation?

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (10:10):

Well, it's still really unfathomable from a computer standpoint. We don't know how to simulate the brain. People are working on it. But if we think about what it is that makes us humans valuable, meaningful entities, what makes our lives full, it certainly isn't doing what AI already does very well. Daniel Kahneman wrote a very famous book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, in which he talked about System 1 and System 2 thinking. And in some sense, AI is doing the System 1 thinking, which is I see, I recognize, I heard, I heard something, and I recognize this word.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (10:58):

It's almost reflexive and almost perhaps muscle reflex. It's thing that we do without perception and without deep thinking. But what is interesting about the brain, as Dr. Kahneman said, is that we're able to think deeply, think strategically, think holistically, plan things in a very large space of possibilities, but we just know that if we do A, they'll respond by B, then we do C. So there's this very clear focus and awareness in making our decisions, and also with that, the ability to be creative, and also, of course, emotions and compassion.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (11:49):

So to answer your question, I think it's the System 2 stuff that makes us really unique. And that's why people can be brilliant like Einstein or Steve Jobs and that's why people can be compassionate like Mother Teresa. And these are special people and these are the special qualities that we have and that AI cannot do and possibly can never do.

Anthony Scaramucci (12:20):

That's my question. Could it ever be replicated based on your observations?

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (12:26):

Well, there are many, many views on that because no one knows the answer. I think it maybe impossible to do, because we currently don't know how to do it. And also, I'd like to think that these technologies happen for a positive constructive reason, not because we want to build machines to replicate us. There's got to be something innate about us that makes us human, that makes this life meaningful. So I think we have to hold onto that belief that AI can't...

Anthony Scaramucci (13:01):

And the positive stuff about AI, our mutual friend, Peter Diamandis, has written a lot about the future and what he calls the abundance, and that there is a world ahead of us where through machine learning and AI and lots of other things that are going on in the world that we can end things like poverty, we can end sort of the income divide. So talk a little bit about how AI could be a part of that over the next generation. What do you envision?

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (13:35):

Well, on the constructive side, clearly AI can make better decisions within limited tasks. AI can take over routine tasks that we have to do. If you think about all the System 1 stuff, those are more the routine tasks, right? If you think about the job of a receptionist, some of that job maybe very interesting, the human element, the warmth, the breathing, the compassion, the branding image on your customers, but a lot of that work is very boring. Show me your face. Show me your ID. Print you an ID. Who are you seeing?

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (14:12):

Call the person. Well, the boring part can be done by AI, and you can extrapolate that to the job of an accountant, a lawyer, even a doctor. And these jobs, interestingly, AI will take care of the repetitive, routine, and quantitative. Things that we're not very good at. And then we get to focus on what we're good at, which is the System 2 thinking, the analytical, the creative, the compassionate, the human to human connection.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (14:48):

I think Peter and I share this belief that AI is here to take away the routine work so we can be liberated from it, and we can spend our time, all of it, on things that makes us uniquely human. That would be the most positive direction.

Anthony Scaramucci (15:09):

Can you talk a little bit about healthcare because I know that you have a belief that AI is going to certainly help us in diagnostic healthcare, research data? Enlighten us about where you think that's going using artificial intelligence.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (15:23):

Yeah. So healthcare is an area where AI really hasn't yet made a huge dent yet, but it is so perfectly designed for AI, because AI would work well in domains where you have large amount of data and very clear outcomes and labels and longitudinal data over years and decades. And that's exactly what the healthcare records have. And also, AI can basically deliver very targeted personalized determination. The reason we really get addicted to Facebook is it personalizes and shows us what it knows we want to see.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (16:12):

The reason we buy so much on Amazon is because Amazon shows us things that it knows that we as individuals want to see. Yet if you think about medicine, for each disease, we're largely all treated using a single prescription, or maybe for complex things like cancer, there maybe multiple types depending on each person's various background. But each person is unique and human doctors and human teaching of medicine just cannot possibly teach each doctor to treat each person uniquely according to that person's background and the DNA and genome sequencing and family history and so on.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (17:07):

But yet, when we have all the data from the patients from one country, that can be trained so that it can specifically target each individual with a treatment that is just right for that person. So that personalized medicine and training and diagnosis is something we can look forward to. Of course, it will have to overcome privacy laws, maybe anonymize the data, maybe use some technology to protect people losing their privacy, but I think that can be done.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (17:42):

And once that is done, what will happen to the future of treatment and healthcare is that for people who can afford it, which is basically most Americans today, you will get a human doctor aided by an AI doctor. The AI doctor will suggest to human doctor, ask few questions, take the answers, look it up, suggest treatments. And the human doctor will tease out all about your background and condition and also care about you, show compassion, connect to you, visit you at home, giving you a higher chance of recovery or survival.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (18:21):

That's the symbiotic combination that uses people for what people do best and machines for what machines do best. But finally, what's interesting is in poor areas, in under developed countries that cannot afford this expensive doctor who has to go through medical school and charges a lot of money because of the high salary, one could imagine a pure AI doctor that essentially draws no salary, runs on nothing except electricity, give decent treatment, significantly bring up the fatality rate, improving the treatment even for the poor reaches of the world.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (19:01):

So I see a lot of opportunities there. Of course, there are also things like robots and improve the intuitive surgical using robots to do surgery, AI for drug discovery, and also connecting AI to insurance and healthcare. Once it knows about you and your family history and your finances, it can design a perfect insurance policy for you that's much more economical than what you can buy from insurance companies. So I think it's endless when you connect all that data together.

Anthony Scaramucci (19:38):

So that brings up the question of further automation. And as we both know, the pandemic, unfortunately, has raised unemployment in the US to 14.7% and that's closing in on depression-like levels. Certainly we hope this is a temporary thing, but do you think it's accelerating the trends? Will it accelerate the use of AI? And will people that had traditional jobs, like the ones you're describing, will they lose out AI, or is it too soon for that?

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (20:11):

Okay. First, on the AI impact on jobs before and then we get into the pandemic. While I believe in the symbiotic nature for AI in many human jobs as I described earlier, AI will take away many jobs as well, because if it can do 30, 50, 70% of different types of jobs, jobs of receptionists, a security guard, and entry level accountant, assistants, paralegal, and factory workers, drivers. So you list all of this. In a small number of cases, the whole job goes away because AI takes it over.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (20:53):

But in most cases, AI takes over 30, 50, 70%, but that still leads to a reduction of employment, because in a pool of workers, AI will take some jobs that it can do, leaving the rest for a fewer number of humans to do. Undoubtedly, there will be significantly fewer people working on today's white collar routine job and blue collar routine job. There will be other jobs created, but we don't quite know what they are yet, and they will tend to be more complex in nature, more creative in nature, or more human to human connection in nature.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (21:32):

Because if AI can do the routine jobs, then the jobs available for people would have to be elevated. There is a training gap. So while I believe there will be many more jobs created and the problem of taking the people whose jobs are displaced and retraining them for the jobs that are being created is an upleveling problem, is a training problem that somehow people have to understand what jobs are safe and get trained for it. So that's before the pandemic. Now, the pandemic will do some problematic things and also some constructive things.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (22:16):

The constructive thing that pandemic will do for our four habits is that it pushes us to much more online and digitized behavior. I mean, the fact that we're having this session here on Zoom and the fact that people are able to work from home and the billing kids are taking classes at home are signs that we are increasingly going online and increasingly getting comfortable with a digitized style of working. The opportunity is once digitized, you've got data. Once you got data, AI can work. That's the great thing about creating value and improving efficiency.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (23:08):

The problem of that is once AI can work and also outsourcing can work, jobs will be challenged. Imagine in the past, if you had a job that required you to go to the office, meet people and talk to people, then it seems hard for AI and robot to take it over. But now you're doing that job online and remotely and by video conferencing and then it will become obvious to the managers of the company that an AI could do your job too. The decision process maybe relatively simple. It can be learned. There's a technology called RPA, robotic process automation.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (23:57):

It's rapidly taking away these various types of white collar routine jobs. I believe the pandemic will lead to more digitization, online, and outsourcing and also automation as one unfortunate outcome. The other unfortunate outcome is that companies will have tighter budgets. They'll have to do cost cutting. And before, they might not think about, well, let me spend $2 million to replace $2 million of salary, $2 million of software to replace $2 million of salary or for some period of time.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (24:38):

People might not do it or maybe the company is making money, they feel if they did that, it would look bad. But now, everybody's scrambling. Everybody's tight. Everyone's cost cutting. So companies are going to be more willing to look at cost cutting...

Anthony Scaramucci (24:54):

It makes sense. Before I turn it over to questions from our audience, I want to talk a little bit about the relationship between Chinese government and the American government and the competition with AI. There are people in the United States that feel China is ahead of the United States. Perhaps they are. I don't know. Are they? Secondary question is, you and I, of course, want there to be a very healthy and strong bilateral relationship between the Chinese government and the US government.

Anthony Scaramucci (25:31):

But I'd like you to talk about those tensions if you don't mind, how they relate to AI, and where do we stand vis-a-vis the progress being made in AI, China versus United States.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (25:43):

Sure. AI turns out to be a technology that is not such a rocket science. There are probably a few dozen important discoveries. If you study them, if you get the technology, the code, you can probably implement AI after months of training, not even years of training. That is an advantage for China. While the US has more of the brilliant researchers who write up the papers, China has a larger army of engineers who are building solutions in the industry. And China's other big benefit is that China is a large country.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (26:28):

There is a lot of data. AI works better with more data. So that China has more engineers, more data, fewer brilliant scientists. So in some sense, US and China can and perhaps should in an ideal world be partners in this, where US is doing more the deeper research, the more complex technologies like autonomous vehicles, where China can do more the low-hanging fruit, the implementation, the things that requires a lot of data.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (27:01):

And then on domains like healthcare where Americans are extremely concerned about privacy and there are laws like HIPAA preventing aggregation of data in the US, perhaps Chinese companies can build models using advanced American medical technologies and AI technologies. But on Chinese data, it's anonymized, but there's no equivalent of HIPAA in China, so that aggregation can happen. And then the outcome can be shared by both countries. So in an idealistic and maybe at this point naïve viewpoint, the two countries are highly complimentary.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (27:44):

There's not an AI war going on. China can build all the things without great dependencies on American products, and US can, of course, build things on its own. But the two countries have such different talents they ought to work together. But that maybe pretty hard now.

Anthony Scaramucci (28:04):

Yeah, no, I get the tension. John, let's kick it over to some of our guests that are inside our chat room here. Ask Dr. Lee a question for us.

John Darsie (28:16):

Yeah. The first question is about GANs, generative adversarial networks. You talked about Deepfakes and things like that. What are the real benefits of GANs in terms of creating positive change to society? And what potential do they have to create general AI, and also what are some potential dangers of advanced AI becoming prevalent in society?

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (28:44):

Generative adversarial networks are very cool technology. Basically you're building two networks, one to do what you want done, the other to be a critic. And then the critic will tell it, "Hey, this is not right," then it fixes itself, and it continuously improves itself. There are many, many applications of GANs. The one that's probably most infamous, notorious is the Deepfakes. It is using that technology that it manages to turn a video from some other third party into you or a voice and be converted that way.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (29:26):

When applied constructively to building entertainment and games and movies with full licensing of the properties, it's amazingly fun. But when you take a famous politician or movie star and put their faces on doing acts that they don't want to be seen doing, then it's a problem. It's the kind of technology where the technology is used by the bad people to do something, then the good guys catch up and catch them, then the bad guys improve again.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (30:03):

And unfortunately, because of the nature of the technology, that you have a good guy and a bad guy, basically the two networks, the good guy network and the bad guy network. They continue to iterate. And the moment you think you got a way to catch the bad guys, they take it into their training as well. It's very hard to say whether if we purely competed on the good guy/bad guys. The good guy continue to try to catch the bad guys doing the Deepfakes.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (30:35):

The bad guys continue to come up with yet another way to do a Deepfake. It's not clear whether this will lead to a good outcome or a bad outcome. My belief is often we have to resort to other technologies that will guarantee the worst case scenario doesn't happen. With respect to Deepfake, probably we'll need to move to some sort of a future blockchain assisted capture device which guarantees that this photo, this video is authentic. And it can catch anything that's been made on editing it.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (31:13):

Some technology like that is probably needed to absolutely guarantee the problem with Deepfakes. Otherwise, I would warn the people watching that we should expect there to be more Deepfakes happening in the social networks. We've got fake news. Now we've got fake video and fake voice. It's very, very hard to catch, and it's going to be a while before we eliminate it. People have to be advised not to believe everything you see even if it looks real.

Anthony Scaramucci (31:50):

Any other questions, John?

John Darsie (31:52):

Yeah. There are several more questions. I'm going to combine two questions into one. We talked about US and China in terms of where they are in the AI race, if you will. We have two questions about emerging market economies, ex. China, as well as Europe. How well are those economies doing in terms of advancing with AI and machine learning? And what potential does AI have to sort of bring emerging economies into a higher quality of life and into a more modern era?

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (32:23):

Okay. In the current status, I think US and China are ahead of the other countries in terms of AI in an aggregate score, that is research plus implementation plus monetization. Right. Europe I think is very strong in research, but the entrepreneurial ecosystem is currently nowhere close to US or China. And unless that gets fixed, Europe is likely to be considerably behind in AI technology. India is another possible country that could do very well because it has also a large number of people and data. We have not quite yet seen that, but I think the potential is there.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (33:11):

And then there's obviously Russia, which is very good in math. There is Southeast Asia which is a large group of people, but not one culture, one language, and then it goes down from there in terms of likelihood of being very strong in AI. But what can AI do for these countries? First, the problem is that AI will create these hundred billion dollar companies, and they're currently pretty much all American and Chinese. The wealth is going to these companies. And AI will decimate a lot of the jobs most of which are routine jobs.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (33:57):

AI as a wealth creation is giving that wealth to US and China. In terms of replacing jobs, it will take more jobs away from developing countries because developing countries have more routine jobs. That is the seriously problematic part of AI for the rest of the world. There are some good news about AI in the developing worlds. It will dramatically reduce the cost of education because there will be virtual teachers, which can do a pretty decent job of teaching certain subjects, especially entry level ones.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (34:40):

There will be reasonable quality virtual AI doctors that will also provide better healthcare. So some services I think will help the people who are in the most extremely serious extent of destitute. But as a whole economically, it is a problem and I think all the countries have to pay attention about the impact of AI and find a path that makes sense for the country.

John Darsie (35:14):

We have a couple more questions. In science fiction, a very popular topic in movies like Blade Runner and others is the idea of consciousness and whether AI and technology will create immorality for humans in a way. Going into the science fiction aspect of that, do you think that AI will eventually be able, as Anthony was talking about earlier, replicate some aspects of consciousness and provide immortality for humans?

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (35:45):

There a lot of different opinions on this subject. There are people who think it's imminent. It's within a decade. There are people who think it's another two or three decades, and there are people who think it might be never. I think it's hard to say which thinking is right. But I would like to think that first, we have no idea how to build consciousness. Secondly, we don't really understand what consciousness is. And thirdly, we people must be believe that we have a reason to be on this earth.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (36:24):

So I think it makes sense to believe that consciousness is the thing that makes humans unique and that it may not be buildable by machines. I think that will give us the confidence to go on. And I think it also is a plausible outcome and we should let people work on it. But until we see significant breakthroughs, there's no reason to believe that the age of the robots are coming. I think we're still quite a ways from that.

John Darsie (37:01):

Another question relates to the ethics of AI and where AI needs to make decisions in real time, some of which could involve law enforcement or conflict or war type scenarios. How do you program ethics into artificial intelligence?

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (37:20):

This is a very important aspect and I think we're in a very early phase right now. Right now most AI programmers are not even taught ethics nor do they think they play a role in ethics. And that's important for the AI tools to change. And I think the AI education, some schools like Stanford and MIT, are starting to make sure that AI students are aware that their profession can impact good and bad, right and wrong in society. Just like doctors have to make an oath that they will do no harm. I think AI engineers will increasingly need to do that.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (38:10):

It's important also to note that when we read all of these AI disasters in the newspaper, not all of which are a result of AI not understanding ethics. There's usually a different explanation. For example, there are cases where people talk about certain company trained their HR system on AI. They didn't have a lot of women, so it became prejudice. It interviewed more men and fewer and fewer women. It became a downward spiral.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (38:41):

That story is true, but that could have been avoided if the programmer or the person who runs the AI over them recognized that their training set, their training data was not fairly balanced between men and women. And if engineers don't notice it, our tools ought to notice it. These kind of ethical issues many of which maybe solvable. The other that's talked a lot about is the autonomous vehicle. Trolley problem. Certainly it's an issue when the car is faced with different outcomes.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (39:28):

People talk about if you have two choices, one is 100% going to kill one person, the other is 52% and they kill two people. Which do you do? It is, in fact, a hard choice. But in reality, we have to remind ourselves that there are very few cases that you really have two people killing decisions in an autonomous vehicle. Secondly, we have to remind ourselves humans don't even have this program in. If you talk to all of the people who have been in accidents, who have caused accidents, got in trouble as drivers, they can usually hardly explain why did what they did.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (40:12):

I believe the glass half full would tell us is that if we program ethics in some reasonable way for the decision-making and with the powerful sensors that AI can see and the deliberate decisions as opposed to people just getting drunk or tired or sleepy and make a mistake, AI won't do that. At the end of the day, AI will really save a lot of lives. And while we do need to focus on training the engineers, building the tools, I think at the end of the day, AI will save so many lives.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (40:56):

That yes, there will be ethical issues and decisions and mistakes made, but in the grand scheme of things, AI doctor will save so many lives more than the few ethical mistakes it may make, and AI autonomous driver will save so many lives more than the few ethical decisions that it will make a mistake on. We have to look at in the grand scheme of things, not just focus on the one case where it appears to be not working.

John Darsie (41:28):

Well, Kai-Fu, we really want to thank you for joining us today. We're going to wrap it up there. I know you're in Beijing right now beginning your quarantine. The Chinese government, as well as other governments in Asia have done a great job of stamping out the virus. I want to thank you for taking the time to join us. Anthony, I don't know if you have any closing remarks for Kai-Fu.

Anthony Scaramucci (41:53):

We're grateful to you. We hope that we can get you back to the SALT Conference physically, Kai-Fu. Otherwise, we're going to have to create an artificially intelligent Kai-Fu to entertain our guests and educate our guests. But in the meantime, we wish you great health and great personal safety, and we look forward to seeing you at one of our next events. Thank you again for joining us today.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (42:15):

Yeah, see you in SALT. Bye, bye.

Anthony Scaramucci (42:17):

Okay.

Steve Case: How Tech is Reshaping the Economy | SALT Talks #4

“In this environment, many companies will continue to operate in a hybrid state, where some employees will come to the office while others stay home. COVID-19 accelerated a trend that was already underway.”

There have been three important waves in history: the Agricultural Revolution, the Industrial Revolution and, now, the Technology Revolution. Key to the latter is partnership and policy. Remember: it used to be illegal for some consumers and institutions to event connect to the internet!

Steve Case is the Chief Executive Officer of Revolution, a Washington D.C.-based investment firm. He’s notably the Founder of AOL, where he focused mainly on marketing aspects for the company.

What does a post-COVID economy look like? Broadly, Steve says companies will need to reimagine themselves to not only compete, but survive.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Steve+headshot+FINAL.jpeg

Steve Case

CEO

Revolution

MODERATOR

Headshot+-+Scaramucci%2C+Anthony.jpeg

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie (00:08):

Welcome, everyone to the latest edition of SALT Talks. My name is John Darsie. I'm the Managing Director of SALT. In lieu of our global conferences, which have obviously been put on hold by the pandemic, we're hosting these SALT Talks, which are a series of digital interviews with what we think are the leading thinkers, creators and innovators in the world across finance, technology and public policy.

John Darsie (00:33):

Today, we are very pleased to welcome Steve Case to SALT talks. Steve, as many of you know, was a co-founder and the Chief Executive Officer of AOL. And today, he is the Chairman and CEO of Revolution, a Washington DC based venture capital firm that is invested across a variety of sectors. And Steve has talked about a lot of interesting themes, including the third wave of the internet, the rise of the rest, themes that are being accelerated by what we're seeing today with the pandemic, so we're very excited to have Steve here today.

John Darsie (01:04):

He came to our SALT Conference last year and had a riveting panel with Mark Cuban that was moderated by Kara Swisher that you can find on our YouTube channel as well. But I'd like to kick it over to Anthony Scaramucci, the Chairman and CEO of SALT, as well as the Founder and Managing Partner of SkyBridge to host the interview with Steve Case. Take it away, guys.

Anthony Scaramucci (01:25):

Steve, thanks for coming on. Welcome to SALT Talks. This would have been the evening, Tuesday evening cocktail party at SALT. So unfortunately, we're not there now. But hopefully we'll get back there next year. But I would love to have you start out with your personal backstory. I think a lot of people, frankly the newer generation, they could benefit from sort of the curves that came about in your career, how you got AOL started, how you transitioned eventually into Revolution where you are now.

Steve Case (01:57):

Well, first of all, it's great to be with you. I've watched some of the SALT Talks and you're doing a great job and a great service bringing out people to talk about topics. In terms of my own backstory, born and raised in Hawaii. It was a little unusual. Both my parents were born and raised there. Actually, when I was born, it wasn't even a state. It became a state on my first birthday, and grew up there and actually went to high school with then Barry Obama, who became President Obama, which is kind of an interesting, it's a small world kind of story.

Steve Case (02:21):

I went to college in Massachusetts and graduated there, ended up working for some big companies for a little while, Procter and Gamble in Cincinnati, a division of PepsiCo, Pizza Hut, in Wichita, Kansas, and then moved to the Washington DC area to join a startup that was doing some early online things. And that was a failure. But luckily, two of the people I met there and I ended up starting AOL in 1985. Back then, it's amazing thinking about how we're all working from home, Zoom calls and living in a more connected world. When we started, only 3% of people were online, and they're only online an average of one hour a week. Now, of course everybody's connected and connected ubiquitously. So we've come a long way from those early days of just trying to sell the idea of a connected world, the idea of the internet and now basically, because of this crisis, we're now living a much more online life.

Anthony Scaramucci (03:17):

So tell me about AOL. Who were the founders? Jim Kimsey was one of the founders, right? I remember Jim.

Steve Case (03:23):

Jim Kimsey brought the finance kind of perspective. Marc Seriff brought the technology perspective, and I brought more of the marketing perspective. So we were the three co-founders. It was actually a struggle to get started because back then, and as I said 1985, most people didn't really believe that people wanted to get connected. They thought it was kind of a nerdy hobbyist market, never going to be a mass market. We really struggled. We raised about $1 million to get going. And our first seven years before we went public, we raised a total over those seven years of $10 million. And then we went public in 1992. It was the first internet company to go public. We raised $10 million in our IPO and the value of the company that day was $70 million. Nobody really cared about this idea. Of course seven, eight years later, everybody got online. And our market value went from $70 million to $160 billion. It was actually the best performing stock of the 90s.

Steve Case (04:15):

So the first decade was slow and kind of a slog. It was really hard to get going, really hard to get people to believe. But then finally, things really started accelerating in the late 90s.

Anthony Scaramucci (04:27):

But Steve, talk to me, because really for our generation, I still have an AOL account and for our generation, that was the real sign of the future for all of us, when I got that floppy disk or that CD and I put it into my computer and got myself online. What was your marketing idea to make it mainstream because you had competitors. You had Prodigy, which was started by Sears Roebuck. You had others. IBM was in there with Sears. What caused that breakout? How were you able to chip into the market and make people realize that they needed and wanted that product?

Steve Case (05:03):

A mix of things. I think our team was really passionate about trying to create a service for everyday people, consumers. Some of our competitors, like you mentioned Prodigy was more focused on shopping because of Sears and IBM were partners. CompuServe, a division of H&R Block, was more focused on information. Some of the big banks, Citibank was focused on banking and everybody had a particular view of the future kind of based on the rearview mirror of the business they're already in.

Steve Case (05:28):

We looked at it with fresh eyes that we really were going to make this a mass market. We were going to make it easy to use, useful, fun, affordable, and our bet from the very earliest days was on what we call the electronic community, what now we think of as social media. It was really for us the killer app was people, connecting people. And always over half our usage was instant messaging, chat rooms, message boards, ways to connect people. Of course, that's what we're now all doing in this crisis. We're connecting online through a variety of technologies, this one being Zoom, but there are obviously many others. That was always our belief that we'll really be able to kind of break through if we had the easier to use, more useful, more fun, more affordable service, and we really focused on connecting people. And that really drove our success. And by the late 90s, about half of all the internet traffic in the United States went through AOL. So it really was the way most people got online.

Anthony Scaramucci (06:24):

Your bandwidth back then, do you remember the bandwidth? You remember at which you're operating?

Steve Case (06:29):

Well, we're pretty small. We started with 300 byte, the 12 hour, 24 hour, nobody knows that technology. But the bottom line is even 10 years into it, it would take an hour to download a single song so it's pretty and you certainly couldn't do video like we're doing now. So it was pretty rudimentary, but even then you could see there was a certain magic to the idea. Some of you may remember also the screeching modem sound when you actually got connected, but once you did get connected, you're exposed to people and ideas and connected to content, commerce in ways that you had never experienced before. And there was something magical about it even those early days when it's relatively slow and also still relatively expensive.

Anthony Scaramucci (07:10):

Well, if you remember that screeching sound, Steven, it means you have an AARP card. So let's go easy on [crosstalk 00:07:21]

Steve Case (07:21):

Sometimes the screeching sound was annoying for me. It was cha ching, cha ching, I love that dial up modem.

Anthony Scaramucci (07:26):

So let's talk about where we are now, though. And by the way, I'm a room raider. I'm looking at your room, it looks fantastic. You've got all the right motif in the room. You can tell I'm up in the attic. My wife stuffed me up here because you can see the eaves here. Hopefully she'll let me out of this thing when the crisis is over. But behind you is The Third Wave. And the book is exceptional. And so I recommend to people who haven't read the book to pick it up and read it. Because yeah, you wrote it a couple years ago now, but you're really on point in terms of where we're going, and how we're getting there. And so for people who haven't read the book, give us a quick synopsis if you will, and tell us about what you're thinking now.

Steve Case (08:05):

Well, first of all, it goes back to your first question. When I was in college, I remember reading a book. It was the late 1970s by Alvin Toffler called The Third Wave, and I was mesmerized by it. He was talking about the first wave being the agricultural revolution, then the second wave the Industrial Revolution. He was predicting, this was four decades ago, the technology revolution, the digital revolution, the internet revolution.

Steve Case (08:28):

But that's actually one of the things that inspired me to kind of pursue that path in my earliest days right out of college. So I decided to write a book a few years ago. I deliberately called it Third Wave. I had the chance to chat with him over the years and pay homage to him because he really was inspirational for me.

Steve Case (08:45):

The way I was framing it was the three waves of the internet. So the first wave was getting America Online. It goes back to what we said before when we started. Essentially, nobody was connected. By the year 2000, essentially everybody was connected. There's a lot of things around building that early days of the internet and really getting everybody online. Once everybody was online, all the infrastructure is built, all the modems were built, all the servers were built, all the on ramps were there.

Steve Case (09:11):

Then the focus became apps on top of the internet, so Facebook, Google, et cetera. The second wave has really been about software writing on top of the internet. And obviously, there are huge successes that have come out of that. The third wave, which is now just starting to take off and I think this crisis will accelerate it is when the internet really meets everyday life and starts disrupting some of the most significant aspects of our lives and most significant sectors of our economy, healthcare, education, food and agriculture, smart cities, things like that.

Steve Case (09:42):

That's really going to be the focus of this next 20 years or so. And what led me to write the book is I realized that the playbook for entrepreneurs in the first wave was quite different than the playbook in the second wave. And the third wave is going to be more like the first wave and there's a couple things in particular, I'll just touch on briefly. The first wave was only possible because of partnerships. We couldn't have done it alone. We had 300 partners that together helped create the success of AOL.

Steve Case (10:11):

Partnerships weren't really very important in the second wave, Facebook, Google didn't really need partners. They just needed a cool app that spread virally, and suddenly they were in business. In the third wave, if you really want to disrupt healthcare, you're going to have to partner with healthcare institutions. So that's one aspect.

Steve Case (10:26):

Policy's also another aspect. When we got started, hard to believe, particularly for some of your younger viewers, but it was actually illegal in 1985 for consumers or businesses to connect to the internet. It was still restricted to government agencies-

Anthony Scaramucci (10:41):

Because of DARPA.

Steve Case (10:42):

And educational institutions. DARPA had funded it and was still restricted. So we had to do a lot of things around policy to commercialize the internet, figure out what the right policy should be for e-commerce. A whole slew of things around policy and regulatory issues were front and center, breaking up the phone company which unleashed competition, a ton of things had to happen.

Steve Case (11:01):

In the second wave, policy wasn't that important. These companies again could start up relatively quickly and scale relatively quickly, didn't really have to deal with policy. In the third wave, again, healthcare, food, a lot of things we're talking about, policy, regulations are going to become important again. There's a reason why we have regulations about drug safety and things like that. And the final one of what I call the Ps, partnership, policy. The third is perseverance.

Steve Case (11:27):

As I mentioned, that first wave was a slog. It took us a decade before finally we had some some traction. You did see in the second wave and a lot of overnight successes, truly overnight successes, dorm room startups that a year or two later were global phenomenons. That's not going to happen in the third wave. It's going to be back to perseverance. Some of the most successful companies in the third wave will be built in these third wave sectors, but it's going to require the partnerships which take time to form, that's going to require engaging on policy which can be frustrating, but it's going to be very important to be successful in this third wave.

Anthony Scaramucci (12:00):

So you're touching on these broad trends so that the investments that you think are going to be offering the greatest upside are where in this third wave? That would be healthcare?

Steve Case (12:13):

Healthcare is one in particular, yeah. We've made a number of investments in healthcare. I started about 15 years ago an investment firm called Revolution. We have three parts, Revolution Growth, the later stage growth investments. Revolution Venture is more of a Series A kind of investment focus, and also a seed fund called Rise of the Rest, focused on investing at early stages and cities all around the country.

Steve Case (12:36):

But in a Revolution Growth case, we've invested in a couple of healthcare companies that are really showing great promise. One is called Tempus, based in Chicago, that's using big data and machine learning basically to do a better job of diagnosing things like cancer. Right now, if you go to MD Anderson, one of the top cancer hospitals in the country, 25% of the time, they reverse the first opinion. 25% of time, your first doctor was wrong. That's a data analysis problem. And so Tempus is trying to basically use data to create much more customized, personalized therapies based on a much more thoughtful and precise scientific diagnosis of what you're dealing with. They're now extending that into other areas.

Steve Case (13:20):

Another company we back called Talkspace is really seeing enormous growth in the last few months because they're focused on mental health delivered digitally. Instead of having to go to somebody's office to deal with a mental health professional, they're able to do that online and through texting and video chats and things like that. So obviously, it's a sad part of this crisis a lot of people are struggling with mental health issues, but we have a broad mental health problem in this country. It's only getting worse and we do not have enough people to satisfy that. We need to use digital technologies to innovate in sectors like that.

Steve Case (13:55):

So healthcare is an example. We also think there's a lot opportunity in the food space. How do you create healthier options? So we back a company called Revolution Foods, providing healthier school lunches. We back a company called Sweetgreen, focused on fast casual and they've done some amazing things during this crisis in terms of redeploying some of their resources to first frontline hospital workers, and also figuring out ways to accelerate some of the plans they had around delivery and expanding their menu to include dinner and other kinds of things.

Steve Case (14:24):

So we've invested in lots of different companies in lots of different sectors, but they tend to have this third wave dynamic where policy does usually matter. Partnerships do really matter. And place usually matters. This goes back to this Rise of the Rest. We recognize Silicon Valley as an awesome place, will continue to be an awesome place. New York City and Boston are also great beacons of innovation where there's a lot more entrepreneurial activity happening. There's also great entrepreneurs all across the country doing great things, but there's not as much attention paid to them. There's not as much capital focused on them.

Steve Case (14:57):

Believe it or not, last year, 75% of venture capital in this country went to three states, California, New York and Massachusetts, 75% while the other 47 states fight over 25%, some states like Virginia where I am or Michigan or Ohio, Pennsylvania each got less than 1% last year. California alone got 50%. Silicon Valley is great, but not that great. And so how do you make sure the entrepreneurs in these other cities have access to the venture capital they need to start and scale their businesses and that also ties in more broadly in terms of society, because these startups are the big job creators. It's not the big companies, it's the small companies, some of which will end up being the big companies. So if we're not backing startups everywhere, we're not creating jobs everywhere. We're going to have an even greater divide in our in our country. So for us, it's both an investment thesis. There's an arbitrage here. Valuations are lower, elastic kind of supply and demand. There's also a broader impact aspect of this in terms of trying to level the playing field, so everybody everywhere really does have a shot at the American Dream and every community has the opportunity to grow jobs as opposed to just watch jobs disappear.

Anthony Scaramucci (16:06):

Well, and you've done an amazing job. We were talking before we opened up the line to our viewers and delegates about DraftKings. Where was DraftKings located? Was that in California?

Steve Case (16:18):

That actually was in Boston. So there are sometimese in Boston, New York and other cities where we'll invest in. Most of our investments are in other parts of the country but there are some exceptions. DraftKings is an amazing story. A great entrepreneur, Jason Robins started initially focused on fantasy, has expanded the vision of the company to include betting now that a number of states have legalized that. And the most amazing thing over the last month that I've seen is this company DraftKings basically went public with a complicated three way merger and a SPAC and now it's trading I think at three times their market valuation, $10 million.

Anthony Scaramucci (16:52):

Well, FanDuel is part of DraftKings now, right?

Steve Case (16:53):

What's that?

Anthony Scaramucci (16:54):

FanDuel.

Steve Case (16:55):

No. FanDuel is a competitor. They were acquired by another company. But DraftKings has really emerged as the leader in that space and the fact that anybody's going public right now given the situation of the market and a company focused on sports goes public even though most sports, football, basketball, et cetera are not being played really is an amazing testament to the great entrepreneur that Jason Robins is.

Anthony Scaramucci (17:20):

You're also invested in something called Convene. Now tell us a little bit about that. What is Convene?

Steve Case (17:26):

Super interesting company that focuses on the future of work and particularly how you design workspaces. WeWork was focused on basically shared co-working space and obviously got a lot of attention, raised a lot of capital. SoftBank reported yesterday that they marked down the valuation by 90 something percent so they obviously have a challenge. The strategy of Convene is not to compete with the landlords, but to partner with them and figure out new ways to help them think about space and that's accelerating, obviously in this world where we're now working from home. At some point, we'll start returning to work, but even when we're back in the office, there'll be more of a hybrid where some people are in the office, some people will be remote. There might also be some kind of third places that people decide to congregate for special meetings and things like that.

Steve Case (18:13):

So Convene is really trying to imagine how work gets done in the future, how offices get configured in the future, and they partner with the major landlords and also major companies or major tenants to really imagine what that should look like and help build out and then manage it. They think of running off as more like hotel companies, think of managing hospitality. It's not just something to rent and then have somebody who may not have the expertise to operate, try to operate it on the side. They really believe, and we obviously believe as well, which is why we invested. It's a specialized skill. And over time, more and more people are going to rely on companies like Convene to reconceive their office space and manage it for them.

Anthony Scaramucci (18:55):

Well, and obviously COVID-19, this crisis is accelerating those situations. And so, you've been one of the great trend predictors and prognosticators, so lay out for us what your vision is sort of in the post-COVID economy, the return to normalization, but the recognition that something has changed in our culture, a lot like the way 9/11 changed the way we go through airport security. This is going to change us, not saying we're not going to go back to normal and have a good economy. But talk to us a little bit about where you see those trends going now. Are they accelerated? Are they different and how so?

Steve Case (19:36):

I think most of them are accelerating. Some of the things we talked earlier about healthcare. We've always believed that healthcare needed to be reimagined and needed to be better outcomes with greater convenience to lower costs, and we're starting to see an acceleration, particularly in areas like telehealth, where we're showing good momentum over the last 10 years but just in the last 10 weeks more has happened than happened in the previous 10 years and now telehealth has become more mainstream. That's an example of something that's been bubbling for a while. It's one sixth of our economy, it's obviously hugely important, just wasn't working the way it should.

Steve Case (20:09):

We've now seen that tipping point, if you will, and a great acceleration of that. We also think we're seeing that tipping point in the Rise of the Rest. So as people have decided to at least temporarily work from some other place, some of those people are realizing maybe they can get their work done. And maybe over time, there'll be more of a distributed workforce. There are some companies like WordPress, over 1,000 employees entirely remote. They don't have a headquarters. That's probably an extreme case. I think most people will see the value in having that shared space, a headquarters, if you will. But surely, there'll be more kind of remote operations.

Steve Case (20:44):

That will lead to more opportunity for people to decide they could live anywhere they want to live. They might choose to live in San Francisco, they might choose to live in New York City, but if they want to live somewhere else, perhaps in the middle of the country, they're going to be more able to do that now because of this kind of shake the snow globe moment we're having right now.

Steve Case (21:04):

So when it all settles out, a number of these third wave industries I think are going to be restructured. There's a huge opportunity for entrepreneurs not just to focus on reopening and rebuilding, but really reimagining what their sector should look like five, 10, 15 years from now, what their company should pivot to do, and because of what's happening here and some of the consumer trends that are going to accelerate as a result of this, some of the technology trends that are going to accelerate because of this, and also some of the trends around things like Rise of the Rest, where I think there'll be a boomerang of talent, something like 95% of people in Silicon Valley are from some other place.

Steve Case (21:42):

They went there because that was the land of opportunity. That's where the money is, like Billy Sutton, the bank robber said he went to the banks, because that's where the money is. People go to Silicon Valley because that's where the money is. Over time, if we can get more venture capital back and more entrepreneurs in more places, we will see a leveling of that opportunity gap that currently exists. That will give people more flexibility. So next time they're graduating from these great universities in the middle of the country instead of feeling like they have to go to another coast, maybe they stay where they are and some of the people that did decide to go to coast, maybe now's the time they decide to come home and have a different kind of approach.

Steve Case (22:16):

I think that has the opportunity to really create a new, more geographically dispersed, more inclusive innovation economy that could help knit the country together. So it's not just a few people in a few places doing really well and a lot of people feeling more and more left behind. We need to make sure we're creating opportunity for everybody, jobs ready. Entrepreneurs do that I mentioned earlier.

Steve Case (22:39):

And this was news to me until about 10 years ago, I was asked to work on some policy initiatives, including by then President Obama that essentially all the jobs created in this country are from new businesses, startups, small businesses in aggregate are hugely important. We're seeing that right now. We're trying to make sure restaurants and other small businesses can stay alive through this crisis. Big business, Fortune 500 companies, of course, they're hugely important. But those don't account for net job growth. There are some companies growing like Amazon, but some companies like GE declining. As a sector, those big companies do not add net new jobs. Net new jobs are from the startup. So if we're only backing via venture capital entrepreneurs in a few places, not everywhere, we shouldn't be surprised that there are a lot of people, a lot of communities that are feeling kind of left out, left behind and worry about the future instead of being optimistic about the future. So this is a great moment, I think for our country to create a more inclusive innovation economy, back entrepreneurs everywhere.

Anthony Scaramucci (23:37):

No question. And you've also been a strong proponent of immigration reform. And so could you just tell us a little bit how that weaves into these trends? Because if you get that boomerang effect, you're certainly going to need talent to be drawn upon from the rest of the world to come into this economy to help lift more and more people.

Steve Case (23:58):

Yeah, I see immigration as complicated and emotional. Peoople have strong views on it. But I just look at the data. And right now, it's pretty compelling that 40% of our Fortune 500 companies were started by immigrants or children of immigrants, including some of the most successful companies, Apple, Google, et cetera. So part of the reason we are such an innovative entrepreneurial country is we've been a magnet for talent all around the world since our inception. It is worth remembering, kind of take a step back and remembering that 250 years ago, America itself was a startup. It was just an idea.

Steve Case (24:33):

And we led the way in that agricultural revolution and led the way in the Industrial Revolution. More recently obviously, led the way in technology revolution and it was entrepreneurs leading the way as entrepreneurs are coming from all around the world, so we want the United States to remain the most innovative entrepreneurial nation. We need to continue to be a magnet for talent and not just look at immigration as a problem to solve, but as an opportunity to see and that's why kind of figuring out the right approach around immigration to make sure we are continuing to be that magnet is going to be hugely important in the next third wave.

Anthony Scaramucci (25:08):

Well, I mean corollary to that, Sal Khan from Khan Academy was on yesterday with us. And we were talking about inverting the skills pyramid. And so what are your thoughts on that? And what kind of policy initiatives or have you thought about policy initiatives that could help us expand that footprint of skills, which obviously would help us with the income inequality in the country as well?

Steve Case (25:33):

There's a number of things that need to happen. Sal has been obviously a huge pioneer over the last decade in using digital technologies, using the internet to level the playing field in terms of education. So his work is incredibly important. And I did listen to his talk yesterday you did with him and was delighted to hear that three times more traffic now on the Khan Academy site than there was before the crisis.

Steve Case (25:53):

That's an example. Obviously, there's terrible aspects of this crisis. A lot of people die, a lot of people are really suffering, including having this massive unemployment rate, but there are some glimmers of hope that we should kind of focus on and try to build on as we come out.

Steve Case (26:08):

In terms of education, I'm not an expert in it. But I do know we need to make sure we're teaching our kids the things that machines can do. And a lot of that seals around creativity, communication, things like that are going to become increasingly important as we move into this next sector. And we also need to do a much better job of reskilling. A couple of companies we backed through our Rise of the Rest fund, one in Baltimore called Catalyte, another one in Indianapolis called Kenzie Academy are doing a great job of reimagining how you tap and unleash human potential. What Catalyte's doing with AI is basically identifying people who nobody ever sat them down and said, "You know, you seem like you would be pretty good at coding."

Steve Case (26:49):

Instead, they were on some other career track, but they go through this initial test and basically get an aptitude around us and if they pass that test, they've been put in this training program where they ended up often getting double, or sometimes even triple the salary they were getting before. Sometimes it's like truck drivers who are suddenly moving into the coding world. So that's just one of many examples, not just about coding. There are many aspects of this third wave that need skills and we need to make sure we're building the skills for tomorrow for the industries of the future. And we're not just looking at the rearview mirror and doing kind of more of what we've done in the past.

Anthony Scaramucci (27:24):

Totally. John, we have some questions from our viewers out there. So I'm going to kick it over to John, who's been compiling some of those questions. Go ahead, John Darsie.

John Darsie (27:36):

Yes. Steve, you mentioned your role as an advisor to the Obama Administration. You were on his Council for Jobs and Competitiveness. You're based in Washington, DC, so you're in and around the political ecosystem. What from a government perspective can the government do to incentivize entrepreneurship around the country and help to incubate your concept of the Rise of the Rest and create the right incentives for that rise to take place?

Steve Case (28:04):

A number of things. I think there were some things the Obama Administration did that were helpful, including passing The JOBS Act, which was done in a very bipartisan way, called The Jumpstarting our Business Startups Act that updated laws that hadn't changed since 1933, so the Securities Act of 1933, to make it easier for young companies to raise capital, make it easier for companies to go public, confidential filings, things like that. So that was a success.

Steve Case (28:28):

The Trump Administration had success with the opportunity zone, which also had broad bipartisan support, identifying parts of the community where the poverty levels are the highest and creating incentives for more capital to flow into those, into companies as well as reimagining neighborhoods, real estate projects and things like that. It's still early there, but I think that holds great promise.

Steve Case (28:49):

There are a number of other things that have been proposed. Senator Klobuchar just a few weeks ago, introduced legislation that would incent more capital to go to these rising cities, what we call these Rise of the Rest cities. I think that would be constructive. And even today, the White House hosted a session on this reskilling going back to the earlier question.

Steve Case (29:09):

So how do you make sure you are moving forward trying to do it in a bipartisan way, and trying to do things that really do unleash capital, which I do think is a critical ingredient. This idea I mentioned before, 75% of venture capital going to those three states makes no sense at all. So how do you create at a local level, perhaps at a state level incentives around angel investments and other, how do you stand up more regional venture firms? What are the incentives to do that?

Steve Case (29:35):

We need to get more capital backing more of these people in more of these places, and there is role for policy. Ultimately it comes down to investors taking the risk, entrepreneurs kind of having a better idea and deciding to run with it, put everything on the line. Obviously, that's critically important. But the politics, policy does matter. It does set the table. It does set the ground rules and more focus on startups is critically important.

Steve Case (29:59):

I encourage in particular the governors who often spend a lot of time when they think about economic development, trying to get big companies to move their headquarters or to open a factory. Obviously, there's a huge focus on Amazon's second headquarters, for example. It would be way better for them to spend the same amount of time and the same amount of money, not focusing and getting the big companies to move but the little companies to start, some of which will be the big companies of tomorrow. Amazon 25 years ago, we had like four employees. It was a crazy idea of selling books online. So how do you back the Amazons of tomorrow, not try to just lure Amazon to open up an office?

Anthony Scaramucci (30:39):

When you think about the world today, and let's take the Stephen Case at 24, 25. We got a lot of young people viewing us today. Where would you go directionally? Essentially, you went to Procter and Gamble, I went to Goldman. That was our years. If you wanted finance, Goldman. If you wanted marketing, it was Procter and Gamble. But the 25 year old today is probably moving into a smaller company than the ones that you and I chose leaving school. And so what would your advice be to those people?

Steve Case (31:11):

Well, everybody's a little different. We have five kids, and they all have different interests and passions and skills and desires, and so forth. So there's not like a simplistic answer. But I do think people need to recognize the world is changing, and not focus on what exists today but imagine what might be happening tomorrow.

Steve Case (31:28):

Like Wayne Gretzky, the great hockey player, people said he was great, because he didn't focus on where the puck was. He focused on where the puck was going. He just got there just a split second before other people got there. So if somebody is spending the time to think about where things are going, again it depends on whether you're interested in medicine or in teaching or startup or what have you, how is it going to change and have a mental model in terms of at least a shot.

Steve Case (31:53):

Well, of course you won't get it all right, but at least you'll have a sense of what's possible. That's what was helpful to me in those early days. And interesting, I went to Procter and Gamble not actually because I wanted to, even though it's a great company. I wanted to start a company that helped create the internet. But when I was graduating in 1980 at the age of 21, the startup economy didn't exist. Venture capitalists were not backing 21 year olds, and nobody believes in the idea of the internet.

Steve Case (32:20):

So the reason I went to Procter and Gamble was to get some skills around marketing and it was a terrific company and then eventually figured out a way to get into starting my own company when I was 25, 26, something like that. So I think you really have to figure out what part of the world you want to have it put a little dent in and then figure out you have the right skill set to do that, not how can you develop that skill set and also recognize that it's a team sport. You can't do these things on your own. I've learned the hard way the things I've been successful, I'm involved in had a great team. The things that were unsuccessful did not have a great team. So how do you assemble the right team, get them focused in the right way. And going back to one of the principles I talked about in The Third Wave. It's now a principle, I think in this next third wave, perseverance, you got to stick with it. Often, revolutions happen in evolutionary ways. And you really need to take the long view and play the long game.

Anthony Scaramucci (33:19):

When you think about formal education today, in private universities and the competition in terms of the proliferation of universities and the rising prices, Stephen, I mean, they're going up 3%, 4% a year in tuition. And now a lot of them can't finish the semester, this semester, or they've done the semester online. They may have to do online semester next year. What's your thought on that? Have you thought anything about how that's going to change as a result of COVID-19 or just generationally change from the more traditional settings that you and I experienced as kids?

Steve Case (33:59):

Well, that's going to change a lot. And there are some folks who've been on the lead on this. Arizona State University is an example. They really started investing 10 years ago as a really inclusive approach to try to get people who had untapped potential, give them an opportunity to do it at a more affordable cost, and that often is the case to a lot of things online.

Steve Case (34:18):

Online is not perfect. We're all finding that out. But for a lot of people, the ability to do things online is a way to do it more conveniently and more affordably than if you're on campus. But I think the campus is going to change a lot this fall. I've heard different things about different colleges and universities and in graduate school. I thought that Harvard Medical School is not going to even open physically in the fall. There's other like Stanford Business School that are not going to open it all online or offline. I'm not sure that's true, but that's what I heard.

Steve Case (34:47):

I've also heard that about 25%, maybe 30% of freshmen in college that had been admitted likely are going to defer it a year and take a gap year because they don't want to miss out on what is one of the great things about that on campus immersive experience, which is the interaction with other people is not just what you learn, is also who you get to spend time with. So I think overall that sector is really going to be challenged.

Steve Case (35:12):

I think that's healthy because they needed to be challenged. They need to figure out ways to deliver better learning outcomes with more convenience and lower costs. And that's going to be a big tribe. I'm involved in all this. I now chair the Smithsonian Institution, which is known for its museum, 90 museums, but it does research operation, National Zoo, things like that. But there's a real effort underway led by Lonnie Bunch, the new head of the Smithsonian, to create a virtual Smithsonian.

Steve Case (35:40):

Not everybody can get on a plane and fly to Washington DC, spend time on the National Mall, to visit Air and Space and Natural History and some of these other terrific museums. How do you create an immersive virtual experience and allow people to access some of that idea, some of that intellectual property if you will, from any home in any classroom.

Steve Case (35:57):

So the fact that the museums now are shut down is terrible. But the Smithsonian is using that time to reimagine what the Smithsonian should be in the future. And the digital component is going to be much more important. So everybody needs to understand that the world has changed, that we saw in the last 10, 20 years a slow evolution, whether it be technology around distance learning or technology around telehealth, some of the things we've we've talked about. This is a kind of a shake the snow globe moment. When it all settles back, it's going to be different than it was and some of these trends which we're slowly building are going to really start accelerating.

Steve Case (36:35):

I'm optimistic that will result in a better healthcare system, a better educational system, a better food system, some of the things that we've talked about and some of the things we're investing in it at the Revolution.

Anthony Scaramucci (36:48):

Well, I mean, it's also a good segue. You're talking about the Smithsonian, you're doing a lot of work with your wife, Jean. You've given the Giving Pledge. You're going to give away half of your net worth to society, which is a wonderful thing that you guys are doing. And just talk to us a little bit about your charitable giving, how you're thinking about it because I know you're a great investor, that's also a form of investment. It's sort of social investing. So what are your thoughts there?

Steve Case (37:16):

Well, we started the Case Foundation over 20 years ago and my wife has run it that entire time, and over those 20 years, we've invested a number of things. Early days, we had a very significant Digital Divide initiative. We're quite concerned as technology, the internet was starting to take hold, taht a lot of kids were being left behind. So that was a significant initiative. We did things around clean water, cancer research, a variety of different areas.

Steve Case (37:39):

Right now our focus is on things like the Smithsonian for me. Jean, my wife is the chair of the National Geographic Society. She's doing amazing work, the number one brand in terms of social media, Instagram, things like that, has an amazing partnership with Disney for the National Geographic Channel and some of their other digital businesses. For me, it's Smithsonian. For Jane, the National Geographic are our two priorities.

Steve Case (38:01):

But we still with the Case Foundation also, we call the Case Impact Network are looking at how do we level the playing field in terms of opportunity. A lot of things we've talked about on this call, how do we do that from an entrepreneurship standpoint? How do we do that from an opportunity standpoint? How do we work with the groups like Business Roundtable and others that are trying to shift business from just focusing on profit, that sort of Milton Friedman view of a half century ago to recognizing profit really creates a sustainability for businesses, allows them to invest and grow and hire people. These companies also need to have more impact and more purpose. And that's going to be a big trend in the next 10 or 20 years. And that's one of the areas that we're focused on helping to catalyze any way we can.

Anthony Scaramucci (38:43):

Yeah, hopefully, there will be that cultural shift where it is certainly about profit. But also if you think about the social well being of your employees and things like that, it could actually enhance and increase profit. But John has another question for you from the audience. Go ahead, John.

John Darsie (38:59):

Yeah, we had a SALT Talk last Friday with Chamath Palihapitiya, who has been very critical even though he's based in California, he's been very critical not just of the culture in Silicon Valley, but of the system of capital formation about how it sets a lot of entrepreneurs up to fail and doesn't serve the entrepreneurial community very well. How do you feel about capital formation, how it could be improved from a venture capital perspective?

Steve Case (39:25):

I've known Chamath a long time. He actually worked at AOL out here in the DC area before he moved to California, ended up being a key executive at Facebook and obviously quite successfully pivoted into the investment world. I celebrate Silicon Valley. There are amazing things about Silicon Valley in terms of this sense of possibility. People hear an idea and imagine how big it can be. A lot of people in a lot of parts of the country hear an idea and focus on risk factors, why it might fail as opposed to why it might succeed.

Steve Case (39:52):

There's this network density of collision of people and ideas. There's a lot of capital, so there's a lot to celebrate, but I do think sometimes Silicon Valley gets a little ahead of itself. I do think in the sector, these third wave sectors, knowing something about healthcare, for example, I think is going to be important. Domain expertise is going to be important. For a lot of people still in Silicon Valley, think that if you know nothing about an industry, you can bring fresh insights. And there are many examples where that has been the case.

Steve Case (40:20):

But in this third wave, I think you need to marry those fresh insights with some perspective, knowledge and credibility if you're going to form partnerships in these third wave sector. So recognizing that it's not just about the software, it's not just about the apps, these are system level changes. And ultimately, system changes happen as people change, and you have to bring a lot of people along. That's something that I think we can make a lot of progress on and getting more of the Silicon Valley venture capitalists to not just invest in Silicon Valley, but invest in these rising cities, these Rise of the Rest cities, I think, would be hugely important as well.

Steve Case (40:54):

We're starting to see some momentum on that front. Hopefully, this crisis won't slow that momentum. Hopefully, it will accelerate that momentum. But I think Silicon Valley at least should not just focus on itself, but focus more on the country at large and engage more with policy makers because there are a lot of complicated policy issues in this third wave. And it is frustrating as Anthony knows, dealing with government kind of issues. Sometimes the bureaucrats can slow you down and that can be a source of frustration. I get that.

Steve Case (41:22):

But if we're really going to lead as a country in this third wave, we're going to need to have constructive engagement between the innovators, the disruptors, interest groups and the policymakers and figure out as we did in those early days of the internet, commercialize the internet, creating the rules of the road around e-commerce, things like that. You need to do the same in healthcare, smart cities, food and agriculture, these system level changes that are going to be essential in this third wave.

Steve Case (41:47):

So I celebrate Silicon Valley. I just want to create more opportunity for more people in more places, get more of that venture capital backing more entrepreneurs in more places, create more of that fearlessness, anything is possible mentality in the middle of the country, not just in a few places on the coast. I think that will result in a stronger innovation economy, more inclusive innovation economy and also create more opportunity, more jobs for people everywhere.

Anthony Scaramucci (42:12):

Steve, you mentioned Alvin Toffler. You remember John Naisbitt spoke Megatrends? Do you remember that work as well?

Steve Case (42:19):

Yeah.

Anthony Scaramucci (42:20):

So before we let you go, because we promised a hard out in 45 minutes, I want you to be John. I want you to channel your john Naisbitt for a second, and give us a few of the mega trends that you see over the next three, five to 10 years.

Steve Case (42:37):

Well, I think it ties in exactly what the themes that we talked about. I think a lot of sectors of the economy, a lot of arguably the most important aspect of our lives, how we stay healthy, how our kids learn, what we eat, how we move around, how we work are going to be rethought, reimagined, and that's going to create enormous opportunity for entrepreneurs who are willing to play offense when a lot of big companies are shifted into playing defense. The revolution we saw in the early days of the internet, that first wave was around communications, technology, the second wave around media, technology obviously did a lot of disruption there. I think the third wave is going to really impact critical aspects of our lives, some of the most important sectors of the economy.

Steve Case (43:20):

So it's not about any one technology. It's about systems level change in these sectors. And I also really do believe that the playing field will level but the rest will rise and we will indeed have a more inclusive innovation economy. So if I was going to pick two, I'd say watch the third wave as that wave accelerates, and watch the rise of the rest as a lot of these cities that a lot of people have given up on start rising and surprising us all in the next 10 or 20 years, when some of the most iconic breakthrough companies in these important third wave sectors are going to be from places in the middle of the country.

Anthony Scaramucci (43:55):

Well, listen, it was a fabulous conversation. We really appreciate. We covered all the bases today. We're looking forward to seeing your success as it unfolds, and just move your head a little Steve because I want to show the book here one more time. There you go. See that Third Wave right there?

Steve Case (44:13):

[inaudible 00:44:13]

Anthony Scaramucci (44:12):

The Third Wave. I very, very strongly recommend everybody that you get out and buy that book, read that book, listen to it on Audible or an audio tape. I think you'll really enjoy that. And with that, Steve, thank you. Great talk. Have a great evening. Stay safe and healthy out there, everybody, and we'll be back with SALT Talks again later in the week and next week. Thank you, Steve.

Steve Case (44:36):

Thank you. It was fun.

Anthony Scaramucci (44:36):

I appreciate it.

Steve Case (44:38):

Thank you, Anthony.

Anthony Scaramucci (44:38):

Thank you.

Chamath Palihapitiya: The State of Venture Capital | SALT Talks #2

“There needs to be a reimagining of how the infrastructure of the world should look and should work.”

Chamath Palihapitiya, Founder & Chief Executive Officer of Social Capital, believes there is a dispersion occurring in both the public and private markets between the “have’s” and the “have-nots.” The cycle of building a company and profiting from it is broken, as it now takes too long to see a profit.

Politically, he believes there will be a changing of the guard come 2024. “Politically, this is the last gasp for Boomers.” There will be new alternatives on both sides but in general, there will be a shift to the left. Things like higher education cannot become akin to luxury goods.

How do we emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic successfully? Chamath gives us the metaphor of a patient brought to the ER with a gunshot wound. Stop the bleeding (put money in the hands of the people), conduct the surgery (incentivize good behavior by companies) and rehabilitate to 100% health (attack structural issues).

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

chamath-portrait.jpeg

Chamath Palihapitiya

CEO

Social Capital

MODERATOR

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Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie (00:09):

Welcome to SALT Talks, a series of digital interviews with the world's foremost thinkers, creators and entrepreneurs. Today, we are very thrilled to be welcoming Chamath Palihapitiya to Salt Talks, but just as we do at our global conferences, we try to provide a platform, both for big ideas and to provide our audience a window into the minds of leading a business executives, entrepreneurs, and innovators. Chamath as you may know, is the founder of Social Capital. He is also a part owner of the Golden State Warriors, and now the chairman of Virgin Galactic, which he took public by a special purpose acquisition vehicle, which Anthony and Chamath will likely talk about today. But I want to turn it over to Anthony Scaramucci who's going to be doing the interview. Anthony, as most of is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, a leading alternative investment firm, as well as the chairman of SALT. Anthony, I'll let you take it away.

Anthony Scaramucci (01:06):

Okay, well, John, I appreciate it. Chamath, I'm going to dig right into it with you. We're going to make this a Chris 45 minutes if that's okay. And you've got a lot of philosophical thoughts about inequality, your personal journey to where you are now. And I was just wondering if you could give us a good two or three minute explanation of how you've gotten to where you are and where are you exactly on the whole idea of inequality where we need to go?

Chamath Palihapitiya (01:36):

Sure. I'm a Sri Lankan by birth. I'm 43 years old. I was born in '76 in Columbus, Sri Lanka. My parents immigrated to Canada when I was six. My dad worked in the embassy there, and at the time there was a civil war between the Singhalese and the Tamils. We were Singhalese, and it was not safe for my father and our family to go back. So then we stayed in Canada. This will give you a sense of where I'm coming from, but we claimed refugee status because my father's life was threatened. We got refugee status, grew up on social assistance, on welfare and in Canada, parents tried hard to work off and on. My mom was a housekeeper. I went to college in Canada, again, relatively cheaply, did an engineering degree at University of Waterloo. And after a year working at an investment bank, after an engineering degree, I traded interest rate derivatives at Bank of Montreal. I moved to California, I worked at a series of startups, and I ended up working at AOL Rose through the ranks of AOL.

Chamath Palihapitiya (02:53):

In my mid twenties was running a division there then came back to the West Coast, joined Facebook early on, helped them scale their business, was one of the principal executives in its seminal growth phase, led the growth of the business. And then in 2011, I started investing full-time at Social Capital. And in 2017, really unwound a lot of the typical LPGP relationships and then transformed the business to be more of a technology holding company with this idea that we would use a permanent capital base to buy and hold long duration assets, and then take them public and eventually take social capital public. That's my life in a nutshell.

Chamath Palihapitiya (03:43):

My political philosophy is, I would say, ideologically promiscuous. There are some very firm beliefs that I have about a social safety net because I directly benefited from it. And then there are some very strong beliefs I have about open markets and capitalism, because I've been a direct beneficiary of those. And it would be a lie to basically say that I've come to these conclusions more from an academic perspective, these are very much lived experiences. And so I think that I'm probably a centrist who believes in extremely free open markets, thoughtful longterm allocation of capital, but a strict code of ethics around the social safety infrastructure we provide to our fellow citizens so that the rest of us who want to compete in the open markets can do so without the fear of revolution.

Anthony Scaramucci (04:40):

Are you a UBI Fan like Andrew Yang or?

Chamath Palihapitiya (04:44):

It's interesting. I would not have claimed myself to be a UBI fan until this pandemic. I think that those are tools that are really important in exigent circumstances and I would put the pandemic as the most obvious case for where UBI makes sense. It comes in part from a social safety net perspective, but the much larger motivation from my belief in UBI is one around how to ... and what I think we are in right now, which is a deflationary supercycle quite honestly. And we are in for decades of Japanese style malaise unless we jumpstart the economy. And I think the most obvious way which people refuse to admit is that, we're consumer driven, led GDP growth country and we need to get enough money into the hands of people where they aren't psychologically incentivized to save, but to spend.

Anthony Scaramucci (05:45):

Talk about the deflation supercycle for a second, because you think some of that is being induced by the fed and some people actually, there's a lot of people listening in that are in the financial services industry. They think the fed's creation is creating inflation. I personally don't. I do see the deflationary cycle in terms of the excess factory, labor, all that stuff, but define that supercycle for people. And why do you think that is perhaps intractable?

Chamath Palihapitiya (06:13):

I think this is a ... by the way you're framing is actually excellent. It's exactly that. We're on the track to something that I think is intractable because the accelerant of deflation is the fed and the printing of money, but the inception of this deflationary cycle is actually in tech businesses. So let's just take a step back and look at the five best tech businesses in the world, and think about the incentives that they create in the consumer's mind and have done, especially in the last decade. If you wanted social connection, you can go to Facebook and get an enormity of that for free. If you want information and access to content that basically crushes any asymmetry that anybody else would have over you, you can get that from Google for free. If you wanted to entertain yourself with video content and not pay $130 to your MSO cable provider, you can get that from Netflix or YouTube, essentially close to free.

Chamath Palihapitiya (07:16):

If you want to communicate across channels and not have to pay a telecom provider, you can get that from Microsoft and Facebook and Google, essentially for free. If you want things that are cheap and available in instantaneous seconds and minutes, if you wait long enough for Amazon, they'll give you that also essentially for free. So what has been happening slowly is that these enormous companies have created tons of value, but by doing it in ways that have ingrained in the consumer, that cheaper, faster, and better is always on the horizon. And so for you to wait, you get rewarded. And so what that does is an incentive to save money. And so when you look at what happened in the savings rate after the great financial crisis, I think a lot of what happened was if you even assume that the quantitative easing had some trickle down effect and that money got into the hands of consumers, they didn't see the need to spend it, Anthony.

Chamath Palihapitiya (08:14):

They were like, I'm just going to save this because you know what? I have exactly what I want and incremental things I want will just be cheaper tomorrow. And so why spend this money today? And it gave them some amount of psychological safety. So we've been reinforcing that mechanic for a decade coming into this crisis. And then on top of that, you add trillions and trillions of dollars. What happens then is people now look at that money and they say, "Well, I never needed the money before, as much as I, I'm going to need it today versus tomorrow. So I'm just going to save." And so what people think is, "Well, I need to put this to work in a place where I can actually save and compound." So then you see this asset bubble inflate.

Chamath Palihapitiya (08:53):

So I think that this duality working together. Technology on the one hand drives the entire world to believe in deflation, to want deflation because you're getting value. And then the monetary supply basically reinforces that that money, which becomes a less and less useful commodity should go back into the asset markets, because it's not something that is a useful instrument today, and it will become increasingly less useful tomorrow. So when you put those two factors together, that's what's creating this supercycle.

Anthony Scaramucci (09:23):

Yeah. I see all of that and I think it's a brilliant analysis of it, but the one fear if your essential bank or that you're having deflation is debt repayment and the economic term that emerged in the 1930s called debt destruction. So let me just give you the math. I'm a person that has a $50,000 income or $60,000 income. I've got $200,000 of debt. In that deflationary supercycle, wages are also going down Chamath. And so let's give you this example. I'm going from 60 to $30,000. Look at what just happened to my debt. Moreover, let's say I'm a government, I'm sitting on $24 trillion of debt, but I'm in a deflationary supercycle. I'm now forced to pay the debt back with dollars that are worth more than the dollars that I borrowed. And that makes it almost impossible. So what do you say about the collision between deflation and the debt cycle that we're in?

Chamath Palihapitiya (10:21):

Well, that's exactly what is going to happen. I've spent a lot of time playing poker, I played blackjack. I've been in Vegas a lot. And I remember one time I was playing blackjack and the person beside me was clapping and the dealer said to him, "Hope is not a strategy." And I would say that central bankers wanting inflation because they realize that this is happening also is not a strategy. This is why I think going back to UBI to close the loop is really quite an interesting idea in a moment like this, because I think what it has the ability to do is to get enough money into the hands of consumers that exceeds the nominal marginal value of that saved dollar. And that's when you will actually start to see more spending. And in that more spending, because you've gone through a few years or in this case decades now of deflation, demand can very quickly outstrip supply and then you restart the inflationary cycle.

Chamath Palihapitiya (11:23):

And I think that that would be wonderful. We've all read Paul Tudor Jones's letter net by now. I think even central bankers would say the best way to manage all these debts is through an inflationary cycle. Everybody wants it. I think the question is, how do you start it? And I think that knowing that there's so much money supply there, the only way to drive the velocity of money in my opinion, is to get money in the hands of consumers and let them spend our way out of this where the incremental saved dollar is not worth it.

Anthony Scaramucci (11:57):

Yeah. No, I agree. And so the secondary question of this is, you've got a lot of opinions on artificial intelligence and the ramping of artificial intelligence, which will also lower the cost of goods and services. 3D printing lowers the cost of goods and services. And so at some point, don't you think, and I'll ask it rhetorically, but I'm interested in really to get your reaction the political landscape has to change. Right now we're in a baby boomer political landscape where these guys, as David Rubinstein had said on Monday, they won't leave the stage. You've got 75 plus year old people running for office, and they're killing each other in that sort of self-righteous way. So we're getting left strategies and right strategies opposed to right and wrong strategies. And so how do you intersect that line into the diagram that you and I are discussing? What do you think happens politically?

Chamath Palihapitiya (12:55):

I think politically, this is the last gasp for boomers, and I think that in 2024, you're going to start to see a slate of young emerging alternatives on both sides. And what's interesting is I think at some point between now and 2024, the alt left and the alt right will realize that political ideology is not aligned, but it's a circle and they'll meet somewhere. And then all of a sudden realize, "Oh my gosh, we may be the exact same person." So then everything will reflexively come back to a more neutral kind of positioning.

Chamath Palihapitiya (13:30):

I think the standard bearers of this new movement, the ones on the left are a little bit easier to identify than the ones on the right, but I think that you're going to see a generally progressive shift to the left, and that to be a winning Republican candidate in eight to 10 years will mean you're a Democrat, some version of a Democrat or a free market Democrat. That's I think going to happen for sure. And I think that that force has left the stable. So we just have to buy our time between now and then, and minimize the damage.

Chamath Palihapitiya (14:10):

The one thing that you said, which is true is that we have to keep a pace of all these technologies that are going to be increasingly deflationary by design. One of the things that I think we also have to do is have to have a government regime that's willing to spend money. Now, the good news is both the Democrats and the Republicans have torn this bandaid off of this modern monetary theory approach of like, let's just spend, spend, spend and print print print. And I think that that's reasonable if you direct that capital into really meaningful sinks that slow the deflationary supercycle down.

Chamath Palihapitiya (14:46):

So for example, on the one hand where you're going to see the advent of AI that could theoretically reduce the earnings power of people, on the other side, I think we need to make it a national priority to fly to Mars. Not because we should, but because we could. And you can sink trillions and trillions of dollars of capital there. We may decide that we want hypersonic aircraft, not because we need it, but because we want it and you can sink hundreds of billions of capital into that.

Chamath Palihapitiya (15:18):

And so there needs to be this re-imagining of how the infrastructure of the world should look and should work. And re-imagining ourselves, not just as people that live on the earth, but also in other planets. And while it seems crazy, the reason is because it can consume all of this capital in a way that's productive, in a way that doesn't necessarily just create a downstream asset bubble because that has to deflate and then it will eventually reinflate. And all of that destruction will further segment society in ways that make political disruption more likely. And I think that we don't want that or we shouldn't want that.

Anthony Scaramucci (16:01):

I get it. You don't want a society where people are going to take a Tiki torches and pitchforks and March on the people that are holding the assets. So therefore you've got to flatten it out. You've got to even out the K through 12 education system. And I think you and I are in a general agreement that, I don't want equal outcomes, but I do want people to have a broader likelihood of equal opportunity. Meaning, if you grow up like me or the way you grew up, my grandmother was a maid. She turned beds. My father was a crane operator. And so I got very lucky getting into a good public school, which allowed me to hone my academic skills. I just worry about that generation. Now they have such an uneven educational footprint. You don't know if they can get to the arc of the American dream or [crosstalk 00:16:52].

Chamath Palihapitiya (16:53):

To your point, I completely agree with you. Public education for me was my salvation and an amazing school in Canada that costs $10,000 a year. That was it. And what Canada and the rest of the world have refused to have happen is to allow higher education to become this luxury good that's like an LV bag of sorts where you want to be seen carrying around this $5,000 purse. It's kind of insane. And in that bag, you carry the same garbage that you would carry around in a $10 bag. And so what is the point?

Anthony Scaramucci (17:30):

I get it. I tell people that all the time, you can eat the pizza off of China or you eat it off a plastic plate. We're both eating pizza, but I want to ask you about the consumer orientation to space exploration, which I find absolutely fascinating. And I mentioned this to you. I've built a very nice relationship with Sir Richard Branson. He has been to the SALT Conferences and he like you is a great visionary. And so if you don't mind, could you spend a few minutes for our viewers of what the vision is for Virgin Galactic, where you see it in three or four years. But before you answer that question, I want to know my friend Matt, go to run zero gravity, have you been on the Vomit Comet? Have you ever flown up there and done the zero gravity turns and twists or not yet?

Chamath Palihapitiya (18:21):

I haven't. I haven't done it. But to-

Anthony Scaramucci (18:24):

Well, if you're up for it, I'm going to take you up there as my guest, but tell us where the future is for Virgin Galactic. What do you see?

Chamath Palihapitiya (18:33):

I'll tell you the Virgin story maybe in the context of the Apollo project because I think it's important. When we sent people to the moon in 1969, that became this incredible Thunderclap in the world, and it completely captured people's imagination. From a global hope perspective, it was an incredible validation of human ingenuity and capability. But underneath Anthony, there was something that very practical happened, which was, we invented an unbelievable number of industries. And the reason why space is such a compelling tip of the spear or a canary in a coal mine, whatever phrase you want to use is that it stresses every single law of physics that we know and understand. And that's why space has captured the imagination of so many people.

Chamath Palihapitiya (19:30):

It requires you to think of all of the basic things that we have today in a completely different light. From computers to clocks, to materials, to how you manage heat, all of these things that are understood today have to be completely re-imagined. When you do that, the second and third order markets for these innovations are so vast. So for example, you may care about climate change. Well, in order to really push climate change to the forefront, we are going to have to massively increase our battery density and the efficaciousness of our motors, electric motors. Well, underneath that is massive kinds of material science. Those innovations may never get funded in electrification. They will very likely get funded in space because you have to solve them to achieve these missions, and then it can trickle down to electrification as an example. And so you have to think about space as a way of it being a guinea pig for many of the things that we can use to improve the landscape of the world.

Chamath Palihapitiya (20:37):

So now you think about Virgin, what have they done? Well, what they've done is they've spent the last 15 years building a very safe, repeatable way of sending people into space and back, so into lower earth orbit and back so that they can experience gravity, see the edges of the earth surface, right. Be up there, float around, and then come back down. Now, what are they building in order to do it? They're building all kinds of really interesting materials. They're building a very novel way of managing the stability of a plane because remember at the end of the day, this is not a rocket that goes up and down. This is a plane that takes off and lands. It could literally take off and land from a LaGuardia or JFK. You don't need to go to Cape Canaveral.

Chamath Palihapitiya (21:21):

So how do you design wings that behave in useful ways at 350,000 feet, as well as 50,000 feet? It's building engines that can, with a reasonable carbon footprint, generate enormous amounts of thrust and energy. How do you do that? So they figured all of these things out. So in phase one, 600 odd people have already signed up to fly, hundred million dollars of booked business that we have to deliver. 9,000 people have been waiting in line to give us a deposit. Another 500 or so people I think have given us a small deposit in order to make the bigger deposit. So there's tens of billions of dollars of revenue at very, very high margin, to give people a once in a lifetime experience. But in doing it, our ambition, which we've talked about is taking those technologies and building a plane that can fly hypersonically.

Chamath Palihapitiya (22:22):

So you would go to JFK or LaGuardia, you would get on a plane, it would fly Mach 55. So imagine you need to go to Japan, Tokyo, that would be a sub two hour flight.

Anthony Scaramucci (22:34):

Amazing.

Chamath Palihapitiya (22:34):

You land in Tokyo, you do your meetings, you'd get back on the plane. You'd be back in LaGuardia, JFK at home with your family for dinner, and you would have spent the entire day in Tokyo.

Anthony Scaramucci (22:43):

Well, listen, it's amazing. And just for more context for our viewers, in Douglas Brinkley's book, Moonshot, the Apollo program, $25,000,001,969, which is basically about $400 billion today, and they estimated to your point over a trillion and a half dollars of positive externalities, it wasn't just Tang and posted notes and aluminum foil. It was everything. GPS, all the systems, telecommunication systems, the internet, the entire footprint that grid that information highway, the Apollo program in many ways paved the way for Facebook.

Chamath Palihapitiya (23:25):

You're extremely right.

Anthony Scaramucci (23:27):

It's nice to see that you've tied those two things back together. My colleague, John Dorsey has a question. He's sitting out there with all the dead animals on the wall that he's hiding from everybody at the ranch in Colorado. Go ahead, John.

John Darsie (23:42):

Chamath, you did a fascinating podcast a couple of years ago with Kara Swisher, and you've had a lot of interesting conversations with her. And you talk a lot about Silicon Valley and about how the culture is broken and the system of capital formation is broken. I would love for you to talk a little bit about your explanation of that theory, as well as how you think the pandemic might even exacerbate that the shift that we're seeing out of Silicon Valley or some of the disillusionment that people in the tech industry are seeing with Silicon Valley.

Chamath Palihapitiya (24:11):

I think that there's a dispersion happening and that dispersion is not dissimilar to what's happening in the public markets. If I had to characterize the public market dispersion, it's essentially that we are separating the haves and the have nots. And the haves are companies that traffic in bits. So Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google above all others, but then underneath them, largely founder led technology businesses, that have the 80 to 90% gross margins, even if they're unprofitable. So those are the haves, they traffic in bits.

Chamath Palihapitiya (24:44):

The have nots or the companies that traffic in atoms. If you're a hotel company, an airline and auto business, those businesses are incredibly impaired and there's been an dispersion in the spread where you could basically essentially, if you bought the weighted S&P Index, which essentially is a way of getting synthetically long, these handful of tech businesses and shorted the unweighted index, which is, basically getting an equal weighting of everything else, you can see this massive dispersion spread by.

Chamath Palihapitiya (25:14):

That's happening in private markets as well. Except what we're looking at are companies that either are benefiting from the pandemic. So tailwinds that are driving positive growth and profitability. So companies like Coinbase, or Instacart, or Palo Alto Networks, which is public or Netskope, which is private, internet security businesses, or Slack which is a collaboration business. So there are these companies, a mixture of private and public, and then businesses that were second and third tier also rants are again, just getting crushed and they're being forced to fire and lay people off.

Chamath Palihapitiya (25:52):

Underneath that dynamic is something that's been broken in the valley for a while, which is that the cycle of building and profiting from companies has taken too long. It used to be the case that we would build a company for four to six years and then take it public. And then the public markets would participate in the last two or three years of evolving the business. Now, what happens is there's so much private money that these companies stagnate in the private markets for eight, nine and 10 years. The problem is that for LPs, it doesn't work because you have these 10 year fund lives. And if you're a growth fund, maybe a seven year fund life with a couple of one year renewals, the timing mismatch now that it's creating is this massive overhang where you have these paper values in IRRs that can't be monetized.

Chamath Palihapitiya (26:40):

And so that's feeding a cycle where even faster than normal, LPs are looking at secondary firms and saying, let me sell some of these things. Let me rebalanced my portfolio, because my publics are getting crushed. If you look at private equity, it's very challenged because they predominantly trafficking atoms. They're buying industrials companies, they're buying things that are real, tangible things that you buy with current free cashflow, that stuff is very trial to challenge. And so as a result, the IRRs that these pension funds and other LPs will see are going to be challenged. They then look at their venture exposure and say, "Wow, I have way too much exposure." And so then they're selling then the venture funds themselves are thinking to themselves, "Wow, I'm having a lot of trouble raising a new fund."

Chamath Palihapitiya (27:24):

So it's a very complicated cycle, John, but that's what we're engaged in right now is this essentially a massive multi-year long portfolio rebalancing. And the publics are leading the way so that dispersion is creating a dislocation. Private equity is the next domino to fall because when they really reset their portfolios and revalue them two, three, four quarters now into the full scale breadth of the consumer demand shock that we're dealing with, and then venture folks will have to take the backseat, but it's going to make valuations very challenging in the public markets. And you're going to be rewarded for having money to put to work.

Anthony Scaramucci (28:10):

Chamath, when you think about the future, it's 15 years from today. We have all of this complexity. What you're basically describing is another big transition. It's a little bit like the industrial revolution back in the 1830s, where all of a sudden people got scared they were losing their jobs and then there was massive productivity uplink, if you will. And so I guess what I'm asking is, you and I know there's going to be an abundance. We know that there's going to be nanotechnology, biotechnology, immunotherapy. There's going to be an abundance. And I know you're worried about this because I listened to your interviews. You're worried that that's going to go to two or 3% of the people, and we're going to live in this ether of plutocrats, where the rest of the society is struggling.

Anthony Scaramucci (28:58):

And so you're a capitalist, obviously I'm a capitalist. And so how do we shatter the totems of political ideology to explain that to people so that they understand that if you give somebody some universal income or some base education, that's actually right in the Western Canon of liberalism. That's the way to allow them to experience their life to their true form, the way you were going to that $10,000 school, or I've been able to. So how do we shatter those totals? How do we get there?

Chamath Palihapitiya (29:31):

I think that the way that I look at it is that right now, we have very uneven starting lines and we can use money and we can use incentives to make sure that as much as possible and as often as possible, we have a very even starting line. And I think universal basic income is a very interesting tool to make sure that the uneven starting lines of today are not meaningfully exacerbated because the reality is looking today, middle of May, 2020, people that are relatively wealthy and had asset exposure, I don't think are very much feeling anything from this pandemic. But people who had normal blue collar jobs, have been affected meaningfully. 30 odd million, we're trending to 30 odd million people, and that's enormous. That's like saying, if you walk outside the United States, every fifth working man or woman that you see doesn't have a job that's in my mind, extremely scary.

Chamath Palihapitiya (30:37):

So the way that you destroy these totems, at least from my perspective is right now, when we're in a crisis, it's the equivalent of being gunned into the ER with a gunshot wound, you have to stop the bleeding. So tourniquet yourself and make sure that we can stabilize the patient. And I think money in the hands of people do that. Then it's about being able to successfully conduct the surgery and remove the gunshot wound. And I think how you do that is to make sure that the companies themselves who are employing you have some reasonably good behaviors coming out of this crisis better than the incentives they had coming into the crisis. And then the way you rehabilitate. So even after the gunshot wound, how do you get back to 90 or a 100% physical capability is that you have to go after some of these huge, big elephants that have been hanging around for a while.

Chamath Palihapitiya (31:35):

Number one at the top, top, top, I think Anthony is education. We have to figure out what to do on the student loan sign side and what to do about the quality of public school education and the compensation we pay teachers. It's kind of a joke. I have four kids, three of them are in school age, and I have to be honest with you, it is impossible for me to do a good job. And I think that those teachers should be paid 10 times more than they are. But then at the same time, I'm a little angry at them because I think between them and the administration, the administrators of our schools, they're so woefully unequipped, and I think this is 2020. And then my school is in the heart of Silicon Valley. How is this possible? So I think that there's a lot of stuff that you can do to make sure that the best teachers are teaching all the kids and that's a technological problem.

Anthony Scaramucci (32:32):

We're going to have Sal Kahanan later on, and that Sal has always preached that to me. It's like, we're trying to make a movie instead of getting George Lucas and Steve Spielberg together to make the movie, we're getting the local drama club to make the movie. And we have to figure out a way to push that expertise down and make it more broad. I know we're running out of time, but I'm very curious about this question and I hope you don't mind me answering it because it's a question about our polarity and politicization. And there was a new Yorker cartoon that I read about two weeks ago and I literally laughed out loud. It was a news anchor and he was sitting at a news desk and he said, "We just heard from our democratic weather person. Now let's get the weather from our Republican weather person." And that the point being that we're so politicized.

Anthony Scaramucci (33:25):

And so do you think Facebook is doing a good job? Do you think we can do a good ... is there a way to dial down some of the misinformation out there and dial up more of the objectivity because I think one of our biggest problems Chamath, is we can't even agree on the facts anymore, depending on where I'm watching or what channel I'm on, I'm getting a different set of facts than the guy next to me. And so we're arguing over the facts now, do you think we could do anything to change that?

Chamath Palihapitiya (34:03):

There's a great philosopher. His name is Rene Girard and he pioneered the school of thought, which essentially says that, people aren't really born with desires. They mimic and model desires from other people. And then they copy and they imitate. And then eventually though they imitate too much and it leads to conflict, and then you have to scapegoat somebody and there needs to be a grand sacrifice before you can reset and everything will be fine again. Right now we're in a cycle where it is very easy to confuse truth and popularity, and so people can do it because it appeases their mind. It makes it easier for them to be part of a tribe and take something as fact versus have to be in the uncomfortable process of re-underwriting, everything they hear.

Chamath Palihapitiya (34:55):

And Facebook in many ways is an impossible situation because they have to do a dance between what is really fact and what is a person's opinion and how do you allow free speech? And so I don't even think it's their problem. I think it's a decision that we, as a society, have chosen to undergo. So I think it will come to a head in the next four or five years. And I think that how it gets resolved, Anthony, like what is the scapegoating that happens? I think that probably there needs to be something like a new deal. and I don't want to say it's the green new deal, but I think it's a re-evaluation and rewrite of the compact we have as US citizens. And I think that that's coming.

Chamath Palihapitiya (35:45):

I don't think that that's necessarily a hundred percent of the rhetoric of Bernie Sanders, but I also think it's not a hundred percent of the rhetoric of Donald Trump. And it's going to be a total rewrite. And this is why I think that the United States in many ways is like a startup that's never failed because we always iterate and we'll recreate ourselves. And so I have a lot of trust and faith that eventually people will emerge on both sides, and they'll just say, "All right, screw the past. I'm tired of our parents bickering. Let's just sit down and shake hands and figure it out."

Anthony Scaramucci (36:21):

Well, listen, but generationally, if you really studied cycles of generations, you're now in the 80th year of the start of World War II. And so when you sit there and look at that, it's a lifetime ago, what starts to happen is another cycle starts. There was a book in 1996 called The Fourth Turning, which was an explanation of these cycles. And so we're there now, and it's going to require really good leadership to set that framing.

Anthony Scaramucci (36:49):

Just one other point on that, I find this fascinating as well, 27 constitutional amendments. The last one was a procedural one in 1993, but the biggest one, the most magnitude in terms of the body politic was the Civil Rights Amendment in '65. So we've really gone ... think about the country. It's 244 years old. We've gone 55 years without a real constitutional amendment to reset things and to re-graph things directionally. So I agree with that. I know we're running out of time, but I'd like you to end on a note if you don't mind, because I think you're an amazing person in terms of being able to see around the corner of where we're heading. It's five to 10 years out, build me the case for America, and where would you like to see America?

Chamath Palihapitiya (37:40):

I think in 10 years from now, I think what will have happen, I'm just going to paint my bright rose colored glasses view. We will have come out of the deflationary cycle. We will have seen some modest, reasonably good inflation, and we will have reinvigorated the US economy. We will have become a standard bearer for basically, Western Europe, South America, and parts of Africa. I think that the two super powers that exist will be us and China. And it will be one where it's mutually assured destruction. And so we choose to cooperate wherever possible and power share. That there will be a lot of high earning jobs because we will nationalize things that should be nationalized for national security purposes. And that we have reinvented education almost back as sort of a very much one to many model to your point that isn't cut across county or state lines anymore, but says, the best teachers teach the entire nation in a completely different way. And we have a body politic that, that is meeting in the middle and is much more like the 1980s Republicans versus Democrats versus the 2020s Republicans and Democrats.

Chamath Palihapitiya (39:04):

So I'm very hopeful. But we are going to go through three or four years of difficult treading to get there. And so we're in the middle of the grind. So this is not where things get easy, but by 2024, things will get much clearer.

Anthony Scaramucci (39:20):

Well, listen, we appreciate your time today. You've been amazing. I'm not a room raider, but I love your room. I love the sunlight coming in. You're doing fantastic. I've got the old fashioned HTTV screen. But I hope you'll take me up on the Vomit Comet. That's what the astronauts used to call that thing. My friend Matt Goad runs zero gravity and would love to go up there with you. I think you'd find it fascinating because you get to a certain level, they move the plane in a certain way. You're up in the air and you can experience some of that space flight that you yourself will look forward to.

Chamath Palihapitiya (39:54):

I would love to. I would love to.

Anthony Scaramucci (39:55):

Well, God bless you. Have a great weekend. Stay safe. That's it for SALT Talks this week. Have a great weekend everybody. And Chamath, I'll be in touch. I really look forward to our next event together.

Chamath Palihapitiya (40:07):

Thanks Anthony. Thanks John. Thanks everybody. Thank you.

Anthony Scaramucci (40:08):

All right, bye.