“Voters make decisions based on how they feel in their gut. Biden speaks to people’s guts, always has.”
Edward-Isaac Dovere is the Lead Political Correspondent at The Atlantic. He has covered Democratic politics for 15 years, beginning in his native New York City and carrying him through the Obama White House and then across 29 states during the 2020 election cycle. His reporting has won the White House Correspondents Association’s Merriman Smith Award for Excellence and the Society of Professional Journalists’ Daniel Pearl Award for Investigative Reporting, among other awards.
Edward-Isaac Dovere’s Battle for the Soul is the searing, fly-on-the-wall account of the Democrats’ journey through recalibration and rebirth. Dovere traces this process from the early days in the wilderness of the post-Obama era, though the jockeying of potential candidates, to the backroom battles and exhausting campaigns, to the unlikely triumph of the man few expected to win, and through the inauguration and insurrection at the Capitol.
LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE
SPEAKER
Edward-Isaac Dovere
Staff Writer & Lead Political Correspondent
The Atlantic
MODERATOR
Anthony Scaramucci
Founder & Managing Partner
SkyBridge
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 - Intro
6:55 - Democratic presidential primary and Joe Biden’s bumpy road to victory
16:35 - The state of the Democratic and Republican parties ahead of 2022 and 2024
22:42 - Predicting whether Joe Biden and/or Donald Trump will run in 2024
25:20 - Biden’s appeal vs. the left wing of his party
29:40 - Shift among Hispanic voters
31:48 - Biden’s presidency so far and future Democratic party leaders
39:29 - Relationship dynamic between Biden and Obama
EPISODE TRANSCRIPT
John Darcie: (00:07)
Hello everyone. And welcome back to salt talks. My name is John Darcie. I'm the managing director of salt, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance technology and public policy. Soul talks are a digital interview series that we started in 2020 with leading investors, creators and thinkers. And our goal on these salt talks the same as our goal at our salt conferences, uh, which we're excited to resume here in September of 2021. And that is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And we're very excited today to welcome another author to salt talks. And that is Edward Isaac Dover. Uh, Isaac is a staff writer for the Atlantic and its lead political correspondent. He's covered democratic politics for 15 years beginning in his native New York city and carrying him through the Obama white house.
John Darcie: (01:02)
And then across 29 states during the 2020 election cycle, his reporting has won the white house correspondent associations, Merriman Smith award for excellence and the society of professional journalists, Daniel Pearl award for investigative reporting among many other awards. He attended John Hopkins, Johns Hopkins university, and the university of Chicago. And he's out with a fantastic new book, which is what we're going to talk about today. It's called battle for the soul inside Democrats campaign to defeat Trump hosting. Today's talk is Anthony Scaramucci, who is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge capital, which is a global alternative investment firm. Anthony is also the chairman of salt. And since we're talking about politics, I always have to add in another piece of his bio, he had a cup of coffee as well, uh, for 11 days as Donald Trump's communications director. So looking forward to a fantastic conversation about the 2020 election, uh, between Anthony, he always
Anthony Scaramucci: (01:57)
Brings it up. He thinks it's like a shot in the shorts that I got fired by Trump. I mean the good news is over Darcie. It's over, okay. It's over
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (02:06)
Really a character in this book. So, so I don't even have to mention the part, the part where you were working for him.
Anthony Scaramucci: (02:12)
Let's see there, there, and go. So even better, even better yet all these other guys that come on, there's like five paragraphs of my ridiculousness in their books, which is totally fine. But Isaac, first of all, congratulations. And, uh, I want to, before we get into the book though, I think it's important for everybody to lay out your background, your life and career. Why did you get into political journalism? And then we'll, we'll dive into the book, but I want people to know who you are.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (02:36)
Well, first of all, thanks for having me to do this. It's really great. And, uh, I would say right before we started that the salt audiences, uh, full of some of the best people, uh, that I'd want to have reading this book, uh, anyway, and, and that you had me on to talk about is really great. So I appreciate it. Um, as for me, I grew up in New York city in Manhattan, uh, and when off to college thinking, I'm kind of interested in politics and I'm kind of interested in writing. I didn't know what to do with any of that. Um, got involved with various things, uh, did a couple of internships in college, uh, at the hill newspaper, um, back when it came out once a week and that seemed like a big deal. Uh, and after I graduated college, I actually, I had the nerdiest form of peer pressure, which is that everybody that I knew was applying to PhD programs.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (03:28)
And so I applied to PhD programs. I got into none of them, uh, but I did get into a program for a master's degree at the university of Chicago. And I decided that I would go do that and see if that would lead me into a PhD program. The year that I was there was oh, 2 0 3. So now you can figure out exactly how old I am. Um, and, uh, I think that basically what happened was I had not realized how much thing September 11th and the aftermath of it had really hit me and hit me as a new Yorker. I didn't know anyone personally who, uh, was killed, but I didn't know, uh, uh, the father of, one of my best friends, uh, was in one of the towers and escaped, um, and oh 2 0 3 that March to the Iraq war kind of shook me.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (04:15)
And I thought I can't be in academia. I can't be, I got to get really into this. I moved back home to New York, uh, and started, uh, getting involved in community newspapers work my way up, uh, was the founding editor of a publication. That's now gone. It was called city hall. Uh, news did a lot of political, uh, New York city and New York state focused stuff. Uh, and did that until 2011, moved to Washington, uh, was recruited by Politico and moved to Washington and be at first and editor there. And then I was, uh, the lead white house correspondent for basically Obama's second term. Um, I, uh, after Trump won, not because of any political reasons, but because I felt like I wanted to actually get to an understanding of what was going on that produced Trump's win. Um, I came off white house coverage and was doing, um, political coverage of all sorts of things around the country at Politico.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (05:12)
In 2018, I moved to the Atlantic, uh, ran in the fall of 2018, the first day that I was on staff at the Atlantic. I flew out to Iowa for the first candidate who went to Iowa officially. And that was Corey Booker. Um, obviously a, uh, never quite became more than that first trip to Iowa. Uh, and, uh, and then I was, as John was saying, it was in 29 states over the course of the campaign working, uh, covering the race day to day for the Atlantic. But in the summer of 2018 already, I, uh, signed a contract for this book because I had a sense that this was going to be a crazy election, that a lot was riding on. And that, um, in fact it was going to be an election that was going to be a lot about the democratic party, trying to sort out what the hell it was supposed to be and how it was going to survive. I, I, yeah. And, and so I was just going to say, I never anticipated obviously the pandemic and all the things that came out of, uh, 20, 20 itself. But, uh, uh, so the campaign, the campaign was crazy, but not, uh, much more crazy than I anticipated. It was going to be,
Anthony Scaramucci: (06:18)
I have a couple of questions. So, um, you writing about the democratic party and you're writing about the factionalism in that party and how they, they picked an elder statesmen effectively to try to do the best that he possibly could to unify that party. And the flip side is you have a very factionalized Republican party as well. It seems like both of these parties are no longer reaching what I would call the bell curve of a center of the country. It seems like most people are centrists and moderates, and you've got hard left people and hard, right? People, am I right about that? Am I missing that you traveled to 29 states? That's my observation.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (06:54)
Tell me if I'm right or wrong. No, I think you are right. And the Electrum results kind of bear that out, right? Uh, by then, if this were, if the primary campaign were one based on who ran the best campaign by the campaign mechanics, Joe Biden wouldn't have won, probably Elizabeth Warren would've won. Uh, but that was not, that's not how campaigns end up going on on the presidential level. Uh, someone once said to me that when you run for city council or for mayor, or for governor Senate, whatever, any position other than president, it's like going in for a job interview, people look at your resume to, okay, what it's done. I think you'd be good, but the running for president voters make that decision based on how they feel in their guts and Biden speaks to people's guts. And he always has, um, it's, I think his real strength as a politician is that he has that emotional connection with people,
Anthony Scaramucci: (07:44)
But he, he didn't start off. Well, you know, he's behind the eight ball. You got hurt in Iowa. He got hurt in New Hampshire. Uh, tell us your on the ground field experience about what was going on and how he was able to pull it off. And I should also point out to you that we interviewed the two authors of lucky. They wrote their book lucky, because they said it was a close win for Joe Biden. People see the seven or $8 million in the pot say seven or 8 million votes in the popular vote. And they're like, oh, no problem. But he really only won the election by 43,000 votes in the swing states. So tell us, tell us what was going on and how he was able to recover.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (08:26)
Yeah, the first time that I was in Iowa with Biden was at the beginning of June, 2019, and it was his second trip there. I had missed the first trip. Um, and the first event that I went to is in a town called a tumbler. Uh, and I went to small town, uh, run on some rough times and there's a theater there that they had said the event's going to be happy. So we'll go into the theater. And, uh, they have chairs set up in a hallway on the side of the theater, like outside. Um, and I thought, oh, this is where they're putting the reporters, uh, to wait until we go into the theater. And then they wouldn't let us sit in any of the seats because they said that's for the audience. And there were, uh, I can't remember the count was, I think it was about 80 seats, right?
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (09:13)
Uh, for the former vice president United States, uh, the man was leading the polls, um, and that really carried through most of this campaign, really all of the campaign through, uh, super Tuesday when he won the nomination. This was not a well put together campaign. This was a candidate who was often stumbling through speeches and trying to figure out what exactly he was saying and, uh, how he stood out in the field. It didn't feel comfortable attacking other Democrats. That was always a problem for him. So the debates were always bad. Uh, and, uh, and it was what happened as, uh, a lot of the rest of the field coalesced in the way that it did. And certain, some of the people dropped out, um, because they ran out of money or they ran out of support. Um, usually it's when you run out of money that you drop out of a presidential campaign, uh, and also, uh, like if he hadn't been at the end, the option other than Bernie Sanders, I'm not sure that his campaign would have taken off. And in that final stretch like it did. I don't think he was lucky though. I think that there were things that were going on and, and the book gets into, uh, some of the strategic decisions in addition to tracking what was going on in some of the other campaigns. But it was sort of, uh, I said to someone with Biden, if you look at the way that he won the presidency, it's almost as if it were written in the stars. And also the book tracks about 50 different ways where it almost came apart completely.
Anthony Scaramucci: (10:44)
You know, there's a former, a former president of the United States. You just do a lot of tweeting. He doesn't have a Twitter account anymore, but he tweeted on the day that, uh, Elizabeth Warren and, uh, mayor Pete Buddha, Jay came out of the race or there about that. They were giving the election to Joe Biden then. And do you think that that was actually the case? I was wondering, I looked at it and said, well, that's a reasonably astute political insight that the moderates don't want Bernie Sanders to run away with this. And so they're going to drop out. So that they're number two, who happened to be Joe Biden becomes their number one. What did, what did the former president miss? Well, like
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (11:30)
The former president is, uh, many things, uh, but he is a pretty good observer of like basic politics. Right. And, and I don't think that, so
Anthony Scaramucci: (11:38)
He had great, he had great political instincts politically in 2016. Fortunately, unfortunately what his instincts were. We opened up the onion. There was a lot of rotten folds inside the onion, which obviously we all were worried about
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (11:53)
That. He, uh, sometimes I assumed that there was machinations going on when there, when there weren't, it was not that, uh, Buddha judge dropped out just to, uh, screw Bernie Sanders. Um, although he knew that that would be part of what happened. He dropped out because he knew he was about to get embarrassed and, uh, and not win any votes. But it was, as I pointed out in the book, Udon judge endorsing Biden the night before super Tuesday is the first time in the history of presidential politics that somebody with more delegates, um, and a primary endorsed somebody with fewer delegates, um, and dropped out, uh, Sanders. What if one of the key moments for Sanders is in the debate in Las Vegas, in February, uh that's right before the Nevada primary or the Nevada caucuses, I'm sorry. Uh, all the candidates are asked whether they think a majority of delegates should, would be what was necessary to win the nomination at the convention.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (12:51)
Uh, and it was a question that Chuck Todd put to them and all the candidates said, they thought the majority except for Sanders. And he said, he'd be fine with the plurality. And this lit up, uh, a backlash in the party against him that was sort of the, the gunpowder was already, um, in the barrel. Um, but that was the match. Uh, for a lot of people, I talked to a guy named Larry Cohen is one of, uh, Sanders, his closest friends and, uh, political advisor was not working on this campaign, but runs, uh, that our revolution group that has inspired by the standards folks. Uh, and he said to me, it's the, it was the stupidest thing Bernie Sanders ever said. Uh, and, and it goes from there to, you know, the, the, the basic discomfort that a lot of Democrats had with Sanders. Some of it was leftover from the Clinton, uh, showdown in 2016. And some of it was thinking, are we really going to put up a socialist, uh, Senator from Vermont against Donald Trump? Um, th th these factors all ended up working in Biden's favor.
Anthony Scaramucci: (13:53)
Anybody else on that field could have beaten Donald Trump?
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (13:58)
I mean, it's great. What if, right. Uh, and, uh, it's funny when the pandemic hit, uh, I started to get from a lot of the campaigns can remember this. The sequencing of the pandemic is the bind is basically wrapped up the nomination right before everything shuts down, uh, and a number of the candidates, uh, aids were pushing, oh, this actually would have been a good moment for Elizabeth Warren because she has a lot of plans. Um, it would have been a good moment for Mike Bloomberg cause people like management experience, it would have been a good moment for Bernie Sanders because everybody was thinking, should we have healthcare for everybody? It does not seem to me that there is a strong argument that one of the other candidates could have won. Um, and, uh, when you look at it, there there's some focus groups, uh, uh, that I quote at the end of the book that were done with the famed Obama, Trump voters, right.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (14:50)
People who for Obama twice, and then for Trump in 2016. And, uh, they were deciding, but under Trump in 2020, and the read that they gave was on Trump, uh, basically I can't stand them, but he knows what to do with the economy. It's not really fair to him. What happened to the economy that, you know, it's like a meteorite hit here, uh, with the pandemic and probably when the pandemic Staten, the key would be better to get us out of it, but I don't think he can get us out of it. Uh, the read on Biden was, is a good man. I don't know that he knows what he's doing with the economy. I'm a little spoked with what's going on. Uh, and the, the defund, the police and all that, it seems very strange what's happening in the democratic party, but we need to get out of the pandemic. And I think he can get us through it. And that kind of, that, that comfort that people have with Biden, uh, and the, the, uh, comfort in his experience and his personality there, isn't another candidate who really had
Anthony Scaramucci: (15:48)
That. I want you to, I want you to be the objective consultant. I'm hiring you, Isaac. Okay. And you get a higher report. You have two jobs over, you're not a reporter in this gate, you're this objective, innocent well-researched Politico. And then you're coming in and I'm asking you to please evaluate for me the strengths and weaknesses of the democratic party going into 2022 and 2024. And if you were the party chair or you were the guru for the party, what would you recommend to them? And then subsequently, I'm going to ask you that same question related to the Democrats, the Democrats first, and then Republicans, whatever you want. You're the guru, you're the guru,
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (16:35)
It's about the Democrats. So I'll start with the Democrats. Um, uh, the, the Saturday before the election, I was in Miami, uh, Kamala Harris was doing a bunch of stops, uh, trying to, um, get Florida where they want it to be. And she kept on saying this line that was, uh, towards the beginning of her speech. So it was something like, and I just want you to know Joe Biden. And I are both proud Americans. And at one point after she'd said three or four events, someone who was working on the campaign said to me, did you notice that, that line? And I said, yeah. And the person said, that's pushing back on the socialist stuff that they're saying down here in Florida. Now, my response to that was that was a little too subtle for me to sit here. And I'm the reporter who was paid to be paying very close attention to this.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (17:22)
And second of all, if that's all that they have as the pushback, uh, that really didn't seem like enough. They underestimated in Florida how powerful that argument would be, especially with, uh, people from, uh, central and Latin America who either came themselves or have relatives there, uh, and, uh, are very suspicious of anything that says socialism, right? Um, and that's maybe more powerful when there's a closer connection to a socialist country, but it is a real issue for voters all around the country to think that Democrats are turning towards socialism. And the truth is at this point, the, uh, most of the people who are the most prominent most often on TV characters in the democratic party are people who say that they tend toward socialism other than Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and the rest of the administration itself. But Bernie Sanders out Sandra causer Cortez, other activists I've these that makes a lot of people who are not socialists or socialists inclined themselves uncomfortable, whether or not that's fair. And that's something that the party really needs to deal with. But let me
Anthony Scaramucci: (18:34)
Interrupt for a second. Is that a mainstream thought socialism in America, is that a thought for 10, 20, 30% of the people and the mainstream with that thinking?
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (18:45)
I mean, look, elections are lost in one, uh, usually by, at most 20% in the middle of going back and forth, and there's probably less than that really it's, uh, you know, uh, 45% of people are one way are going to go with the Democrat, no matter what and 45 with the Republican, no matter what. Uh, and it's that 10% that you're trying to find now that 10% can also be, uh, accounted for by new voters turning out. And that's one of the arguments that's been going on in the democratic party. But, uh, one of the things that, uh, towards the end of the book that I get into is, um, there was a protest a couple of weeks after the election in favor of the green new deal that was held right outside of the DNC headquarters in Washington. And, uh, it was led by all the members of the squad and Ilhan Omar, the Congressman from Minnesota comes and she, uh, was, she was giving a speech that said, you know, I had the highest turnout in America in my district. Uh, and people say to me, Ilhan, how do you do it? Ilhan? What, and it's because I gave them something to believe in and she's standing there and she says, and you know, it's true. She did have the highest rent. That's a district by the way that George Floyd was killed in, um, it's a district in a swing state of Minnesota. Uh, it's a district that, um, uh, was represented by Keith Ellison, the attorney general now, before he was, uh, attorney general, there's a lot going on in that district. Um, sorry. Um, the, uh, he
Anthony Scaramucci: (20:11)
Sees that, so our YouTube bubble moment, right. There you go, stuff flying around. I usually get my young kids coming into karate, chopping me on live television. And that's fine. Um,
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (20:23)
The point that I was making is that she, uh, what, she, I'm not sure she realized, uh, it certainly, wasn't what she said that day is that her district was the biggest drop-off between, uh, the votes for president and, uh, and a house member in the entire country. So it's true that people turned out and they felt like they had something they believed in, they were turning out for Joe Biden. They were not turning out for her.
Anthony Scaramucci: (20:48)
So, and quickly because the book is about the Democrats, what would you say for the,
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (20:55)
I don't see how there is a winning strategy to lash yourself to not just somebody from the past as Donald Trump is at this point, but someone who has proven that he will never be satisfied, then no matter what, it's never enough. And, uh, he enjoys making people squirm. You can see that he's doing that with Kevin McCarthy, uh, and we'll,
Anthony Scaramucci: (21:23)
And when you're talking about a battle for the soul yet ASA, do these, any of these people have any souls I'm just to find Kevin. So I liked Kevin. I mean, I gave Kevin money. I was obviously a lifelong Republican, but I mean, these guys are, uh, they've decided that they're just going to completely distort the facts and guests like the country. So, I mean, we can go in that direction, but I don't think it's very healthy. Okay.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (21:46)
And that's, that's its own question, right? Like, is it the good thing to do? Is it the politically smart thing to do is also, I think very much in the air. Um, obviously the, the reasons of where the trends are historically a midterm for the incumbent presidents, rarely good. Um, and there are a lot of, uh, factors about gerrymandering and certain states that are going to give Republicans a leg up going into next year in the house races. So the Republicans are going to win the house. I don't know that that's a done deal. It, it almost like it, it shouldn't be a question and I don't think it would be, if not for these bigger factors going on, right.
Anthony Scaramucci: (22:26)
Play the party, not in power wins the house, but in this case, because they're so screwed up, blow it. Yeah. It's
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (22:32)
Sort of like if the Republicans don't win the house, it's next year, it will, I think be more because they lose it, then that the Democrats
Anthony Scaramucci: (22:41)
Hold on to it and running for reelection.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (22:44)
It's hard to tell. I mean, he is working really hard every day at that job. Um, and, uh, he'll be 82. There are, you know, actuary, IRL things that are there for him, but he really wanted to be president. And, you know, the book ends with an interview that I did with him, uh, at the beginning of February. And there's a level of confidence in him of like, yeah, I'm here, I'm finally in charge. I'm going to do it this way. That was striking to me. And I've talked with other people who've been around him since he's been sworn in. And they said the same thing. Uh, I don't know if that means that by the time that he gets to the end of the first term and probably won't be all the way at the end, he'd have to make a decision in another, let's say, 18 months, uh, to let the party prepare, but it's not going to be him. He may look at them and say like, I want to give it another shot. I may be the only one who can win. That's how that, yeah, I think he's
Anthony Scaramucci: (23:37)
Going to run again. It's very hard to run away from this sort of power, but I've got to turn it over to the Earth's wild blonde millennials, because the reason why you're going to be able to sell books is that all of his fan base tunes in to see him, you and I are just a side show of distraction. Uh, but I have one last question. Okay. Is Trump running
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (23:58)
Again? I don't think so. Okay. Yeah.
Anthony Scaramucci: (24:03)
Orange oranges is the new black, as you know, he may be in an orange jumpsuit before this is over off the seat. I mean that part, uh, I guess, let me tell you something that I, I don't think you bring a criminal case against the former president and his former organization or his current organization, unless you're pretty confident. I don't think you go, I don't think you take those steps, but we'll have to see, I got to turn it over to Darcie cause I really want you to sell books. Um, and, uh, it's the battle for the soul and the, uh, the underlying pretext is what happened inside the Democrats' campaign to defeat Trump. And I gotta tell you, uh, I'm so excited for you because I think you're right at the edge of where things are right now. And I want people to go out and buy your book, but I got to turn it over to John Dorsey, which will guarantee Isaac, that people buy.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (24:52)
And do you need to stop talking then? So we get to that part.
Anthony Scaramucci: (24:56)
I got to put myself on mute for that to happen. My lips are going to be moving on. John's talking to you a whole lot of sex. Isaac.
John Darcie: (25:02)
I just want to clarify the point on Ilhan Omar. Cause I think it's a fascinating discussion points. So she talked about how she had high turnout. Uh, and you talked about the discrepancy between Joe Biden's, uh, share of the vote in her district and Hershey or the vote. Are you saying that it was the biggest drop-off between the presidential candidate and the, the house representatives?
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (25:20)
Yeah, the biggest it's. So, uh, I don't remember the percentages off hand, but, uh, the, the most Biden got whatever it was, let's say 85% in the district. This is roughly where it was high eighties. Uh, and she got something like 66% or 62%. And in most districts it closely matches, um, that the same number of people vote Democrat all the way down the line. That means that there are people who are, who went into vote for Joe Biden. A lot of them who voted for him. And by the time they got to her either didn't vote for her voted for someone else.
John Darcie: (25:57)
Right. And you think that's evidence that the more progressive and give you something to believe in notion within the democratic party is misplaced. So going back to the point about, you know, whether somebody like Bernie with a more energetic populous message you think would have lost and that's the wrong direction for the party.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (26:13)
I mean, like, I'm not sure he would have lost. I think it would have been a much harder thing. Uh, and, uh, I think what that shows is that you see how one of the things, by the way that it shows us is Biden's own strong connection to black voters, especially older black voters that carried him through South Carolina and just, uh, floated him when everything else was going wrong for his campaign. But I think it, the democratic party right now is, uh, sort of at a crossroads, right. Of figuring out, do they see themselves as trying to be the party that, uh, folks like Ilhan Omar in Ocasio Cortez would like it to be and what Bernie Sanders would like it to be? Do they, for those folks, do they look at the Biden win and say, oh, you know, people just, they were so scared of Trump or they liked him, whatever it was a fluke essentially.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (27:08)
Right. Do you look at the election results and say, you know what, like there was something to Biden that people connected with. And, uh, it may not quite make sense by the usual political science calculations, but you see, I mean, I track a lot of moments in this book of it is human connections that he was making with people and the way that people feel about him and the way that people feel about his, his approach to politics. I think there's a great example. If you look at what happened a couple of weeks ago, um, when the all-star game, the bay, the baseball all star game, uh, was deciding whether to move out of Atlanta when Georgia passes new voting clause and Biden was asked about it. And he said something like, you know, I think that's something that people should consider it, didn't say, okay, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump just go in recent history here had said anything like that.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (27:59)
It would have exploded. And people would have gotten to their separate barricades. We have to have the game there. We can't have a game. Instead. What happened with when Biden said that is certainly there was a lot of pushback to moving the game. And there are a lot of people who said, actually I had to remove a certain layer of people that it was, huh, maybe we should consider it. And that's something that is a power that Biden alone has, I think because the connection people have to him and that's powering him through very well. Now, I don't think most people see him as like, uh, acting in this super partisan way. And if you look at the polls, they don't, but the American rescue plan passed with only democratic votes infrastructure plan passes. It'll probably pass with mostly democratic votes, uh, if not entirely. Right. And, and the same thing for any of the other things,
John Darcie: (28:49)
Right? You talked about how black voters essentially rescued Biden during the primary and basically rescued the country from Trump more or less in the general election, but the Hispanic vote was a fascinating phenomenon. So people just sort of took for granted or assumed that Biden in the democratic party had a stranglehold on Hispanic votes because of some of the rhetoric coming from Trump and his administration, their actions around immigration. But actually we saw a big move from, from the Hispanic demographic, towards Trump, especially in, in Miami Dade county, other counties in Florida, in El Paso, Texas, for example, do you think that's going to be part of a more longterm shift within both parties or you're going to see more Hispanic voters gravitate towards Republicans and, you know, using the, the messaging on socialism and, and the idea that, you know, maybe unfettered immigration isn't a positive thing, or do you think that was just a blip on the radar?
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (29:41)
I think the socialism, uh, argument that, uh, Republicans make against Democrats is very powerful with a lot of voters. And I think it, it, it seems to be particularly powerful with, uh, with people who, as I was saying earlier, have a connection, not just are Latino or Hispanic, uh, but if they, if they themselves, or they have parents or relatives who come from a country that has had bad experiences with socialism that resonates, and you saw that happen in Florida, um, it's really hard to argue that if the Democrats had been able to quash the socialism thing that they wouldn't have done better in Florida might be maybe even it. Um, Donald Trump is very smart. As I said about certain things in politics, he knows how to get to the basins sinks with people. There was a reason why they kept saying socialism and why he kept talking about socialism.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (30:30)
It worked. Uh, and, uh, I, I do think that that long-term is a problem for Democrats. Uh, I'm not sure that you will see, uh, any clear movement of Hispanics overall, but that that's bad news for Democrats who assumed that more Hispanic, more Latino population, um, more voters who were Latino, uh, means more both for them. Uh, and particularly in a place like Texas, that Democrats have been thinking for, I don't know how many election cycles have we done? There's like, this is the one that text is going to be democratic. Well, like it's not, it's not happening. And now where's the interest in, in, uh, Texas for 2022, it's in, uh, Matthew McConaughey running. Right. I, we can check on. All right. All right. I don't think that there's any Latino blood in that magic economy. I believe his wife is Latina, but, uh, I'm not, I'm not, I'm asking. We've got an expert.
John Darcie: (31:28)
Yeah. Yeah. The, the, the celebrity thing they're trying to repurpose that, uh, that strategy, but in terms of how president Biden has governed, do you think that he's governed in the same vein that he campaigned and been a moderate and been restrained? Or do you think that he's moved to the left and what do you think the country's response to the way he's governed has been so
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (31:48)
Far? Uh, this is one of the things that I track in the book a lot. Um, I don't think the presidency that he is having, uh, is anywhere like the presidency or anything like the presidency that he thought he was going to have. And that is because of the pandemic and, uh, what was exposed by the pandemic and the opportunities that were created by the pandemic. Uh, he sees himself now in a special and perhaps unique moment in history, uh, to change the way that things go in this country. Uh, he has, when I was talking to him, he pointed out the Franklin Roosevelt portrait is hanging over the fireplace in the oval office. I can pretty much guarantee you that that would not have been, uh, the, the, uh, main portrait that he would have hung in the oval office, uh, before I don't know who it would have been, but, uh, seeing himself as this new Roosevelt is because of what happened here.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (32:46)
Right. Um, and now I think that what he is doing is very reasonably making the assumption and the argument that there is a difference between the kind of pushback that he gets from Republicans in Congress versus Republicans out in the country. And you see that, that the American rescue plan had a much higher poll numbers than you would have guessed based on that. It didn't get a single Republican vote in the house or Senate, um, and among Republicans, right? Higher poll numbers, that's the pitch that he's making to the country. Um, and it seems to be working. People just look at him and, and seem to think like he can't be that far out there. Even though when you look at the substance of what he's talking about here, this is major legislation, major structural change to this country. And, uh, things that Progressive's a couple of years ago would never have thought could be possible. And definitely didn't think it would be possible in a Joe Biden prison.
John Darcie: (33:46)
Right. It seems like the punches that, uh, the Republicans are throwing at Biden right now, in terms of trying to criticize this administration are not landing. They're trying to liken this to Jimmy Carter, 2.0, where you have fuel prices went up. But that was because of just a black Swan event, the hack that happened on the pipeline, uh, they're talking about lumber prices and the inflation that's being caused by all this fiscal irresponsibility. But if you were the Democrats right now, and you're, you're sitting in their strategic seat, what candidate, uh, on the Republican side, would you be most worried about based on where your party is?
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (34:19)
So I'm not sure what the answer to that is. And again, um, I, I think that history will have a pretty clear judgment on, uh, Trump's presidency. Uh, but whatever you think of him, good or bad or whatever, um, especially for Democrats who found him at foreign, they sort of tend to overlook how skilled he was politically and how good he was a connecting with people. And I'm not sure that you see anyone of the prospective Republican candidates who has anywhere near that skillset. Um, whether it's Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Rhonda Santas, Nikki Haley, uh, the, the Mo the names that we've talked about so far, like it's not, they have other skills. They're just not as good at the political part of it. Uh, as, as Trump was, I think we all underestimated how good Trump would be at connecting with people. But that's, I think in retrospect, because we didn't appreciate how much he had sort of trained by all the ways that he was out there and all the ways that he had embedded himself into people's psyches.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (35:23)
I mean, I've spent a lot of time in the pandemic, uh, cooking as we've many of us have, uh, and I've watched, uh, too many, uh, old sitcoms on like Amazon prime and Hulu and whatever else. And it is astounding to me how much Trump shows up as just throw away jokes. Um, I will tell you, I've found an episode of perfect strangers, which he used to watch when I was a kid and I was watching it on Hulu. And there's like, they think that they, when they won the lottery and a cousin Larry says, like, take that Donald Trump. That's crazy. There's no one else who has that kind of connection to us all. Culturally, the only other person I think does, uh, is Oprah Oprah's politics are not going to put her in a good place in a Republican primary. I don't think.
John Darcie: (36:08)
Yeah. I mean, he's a brilliant marketer. And as his business career shown that as a real estate developer, or as a governing politician, he doesn't necessarily Excel, but in terms of marketing the message and building his brand, he does a fantastic job on the democratic side. Let's say, Joe Biden serves one term. He decides not to run, or even if he does run in, in seven years from now, what does the bench look like in the democratic party? Who do you think are going to be ascendent stars, uh, that are going to take this, this Baton from Biden and lead the party forward?
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (36:40)
Although the most obvious one of course is Camila Harris, um, incoming vice president. It's always going to be where things are. Uh, Harris does seem to represent, uh, what the face of the party, uh, more, uh, ethnically racially diverse a woman, right? Like that's where the base of the party is going. Uh, and,
John Darcie: (37:01)
Uh, people within the party don't like her, you know, they, they think that she comes off as unlikable. She comes from California, that's, you know, experienced some issues. You see some, you know, we work in the financial industry, you see people from Silicon valley moving to places like Miami because of their dissatisfaction, with things that are going on in California. Is she likable? Is she the one? Just because by default, she's the incumbent
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (37:22)
And likable, then we learned that that's a word that, uh, when it was used about Hillary Clinton has a little bit to do with, uh, sexism misogyny, right. Um, I'll get some hate mail. I will quote, uh, something that Jennifer Palmieri, who was the communications director for Hillary Clinton has said. And it's that it's very hard for us to think of a woman in power and a woman being present because a woman has never been president. Um, so we don't have that frame of reference. Right. And I think that Harris is, uh, trying out how that looks for, uh, the right and getting people used to that. Uh, she's the one who's the most likely to, uh, be in that position because she's, vice-president, there are other ones out there too. Of course, a lot of, uh, attention has gone to people who to judge you, even though it's transportation secretary.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (38:10)
Um, and, uh, and I think you'll see other senators and governors come up. One of the things that happened very much in the Obama years is that there was a just ravaging of the bench, uh, and not a lot of Democrats that are, uh, left, uh, in, uh, in the up-and-coming generation, uh, from, uh, the pre 2012, 2000 years. So you've just had, you know, five, six years of new people coming up. And of course, Harris is one of them and she she's the vice president now, but she was elected to the Senate for the first time in 2016 on the night that Trump won that's in the book to her credit, trying to figure out, uh, what it is to be elected to the Senate and being happy about it. But also like Trump wins. She's completely spooked by it. And there's a scene at the early, in the book of her coming to her party and wanting to like speak to all the people there and celebrate. And her staff is like, we gotta get you out of the building. You can't answer any
John Darcie: (39:07)
Questions. Did Obama want Biden to be president? We've covered this with a couple other authors that we've had on that, of that, of Chronicle, uh, the lead up to, and the 20, 20 election about some frostiness that might exist between the two of them, uh, based on the handling of 2016 and then 2020 that Obama wasn't buying to be president, or how do you think he's evaluating the party right now?
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (39:29)
So I want, is it a complicated question? Right? Um, I keep did not, he was not convinced that Biden could be president, um, there or could win the presidency, not going to be president. Um, there's a, a moment early in the book, uh, when he's flying back from a Christmas party at the end of 2017, uh, that was in Chicago for the Obama foundation, and they're talking on the plane and he says, okay, in your head and in your heart, who do you think in your head could win? Who do you think in your heart could win? And who, or who do you want in your head to run and in your heart to run, and who do you think could win? And he, uh, himself picks bill McRaven, the Navy seal commander for the bin lawn raid for his head,
John Darcie: (40:16)
Admiral McRaven. He spoke, spoken Salta in 20 minutes.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (40:20)
Um, he and his heart says of course by it, and I love Biden he'll could win. I'm not sure. I don't know. He was talking a lot about how, uh, physically taxing the job of president is, uh, and that it's hard for older people when people would hear him say that and be like, okay, we get it. We know who you're talking about. Uh, uh, he would talk about, uh, that he didn't know if Biden would be able to connect with people. There is a moment from when Biden is still vice-president and he's flying in air force two. And he says to somebody, uh, he's talking about Obama. And he says, I've never seen somebody who's better at talking to 10,000 people into one, uh, right. That's what he says about Obama and Obama feeling about that. It was like the reverse of that, right.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (41:05)
It was like, yeah, Bob is great, like Todd jumping around, but like, he can't like put lots of people in a rally and rev them up. Um, and you know, there are realistic factors of wood Biden's campaign have looked, uh, worse in contrast to Trump's if he had been spending all of last year doing rallies, instead of not because of the coronavirus. Uh, so your question was Obama by then to run. I think it comes down to skepticism. Uh, he loves him, but he, he's not convinced. Um, and you see that all the way through the end of the campaign, this feeling of like, okay, like, I guess this is working better and better work, but like,
John Darcie: (41:55)
Yeah, he certainly waited until sort of the last hour or two to make that formal endorsement, which Biden said that he asked Obama not to endorse him. And I think people definitely believe that version of events, wink, wink, um, but Edward, Isaac Dover, it's been fantastic to have you on salt talks. The book is called battle for the soul inside Democrats campaigns to defeat Trump. Maybe there'll be another one of those campaigns, uh, in four years you say no, but you, you never know.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (42:24)
I'm not, I'm not convinced.
John Darcie: (42:27)
All right. Well, uh, I, I'm not going to comment on that, but, um, it'll be interesting if it does happen, but I think there's, there's at least one person on this, this, uh, salt talk that, that hopes it doesn't. But, um, and I'll leave people guessing about who that is, but thank you so much for joining Anthony have a final word before we let Isaac leave. First of
Anthony Scaramucci: (42:45)
All, how do you know that? I don't want that because you knew that would be a lot of fun for me. Okay. You know, Isaac,
Speaker 4: (42:51)
[inaudible]
Anthony Scaramucci: (42:53)
My wife, Isaac. My wife says to me, now that Trump's gone, who the hell are you going to fight with and make sure it's not me. Okay. So that's why I pick on Dorsey on every cycle. Exactly. Exactly. So how do you know that? I don't want Trump to run again. I mean, I'm just asking you, Isaac, God bless and congratulations on the book. And hopefully we can get, you know, uh, one of our live events, I'd love to go a little clears up a little bit rooting for you. We are too, and we're rooting for you. And, uh, I look forward to reading the book. I apologize that I didn't get it. I didn't get access to it before the talk, but I will definitely read it and I'll let you know what I think. Well, and I wish the best of luck with it.
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (43:38)
I appreciate that. I know you're usually
Anthony Scaramucci: (43:40)
Really, we also, I also want to apologize for the way we're dressed. Okay. Because even though we're in the office, for whatever reason, we weren't wearing the fancy pants, clothing,
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (43:52)
You know, the reverse for me. Cause I'm sitting in my home. Um, what time for you? I've had a tie on, I don't know, maybe six times since the pandemic hit, but for you, Anthony, I'm
Anthony Scaramucci: (44:02)
Good. Are you, are you, are you wearing champion shorts?
Edward-Isaac Dovere: (44:06)
I'll tell you. I'll admit I'm not wearing shoes, but I am wearing pants. Um, right.
Anthony Scaramucci: (44:10)
No, that, I mean, that's, that's, that's congruent to other COVID fashion. So God blessed, uh, congratulations on the book. We wish you well, we'll see you soon. Thanks.
John Darcie: (44:21)
And thank you everybody for tuning into today's salt. Talk with Edward Isaac. Dovera talking about his book battle for the soul. Just a reminder. If you missed any part of this talk or any of our previous salt talks, you can access them on our website. It's salt.org backslash talks or on our YouTube channel, which is called salt tube. And we're continuing to build out our website. We have full transcripts available. There links to subscribe to our YouTube channel as well as some key quotes that we pull from every episode. So definitely a salt.org. And we also have salt in New York, our conference coming up in September registration for that will open in June. So we hope as many of you, uh, as, as, as possible and safe can join us there. Uh, but on behalf of the entire salt team, this is John Darcie signing off from salt talks for today. We hope to see you back here against them.