S1 | Asset Allocation

Ashraf Rizvi: Digitizing Gold | SALT Talks #254

“Gold has acted as a tremendous store of value for thousands of years. The problem is it hasn’t been functional. Gilded takes physical gold and makes it mobile, digital and usable.”

Ashraf Rizvi is the CEO and Founder of Gilded. Ashraf is responsible for the strategic direction and day to day running of Gilded. He has over 20 years of executive experience as Founder, Managing Partner and Global Business Head. Prior to founding Gilded, Ashraf was the Co-Founder and Managing Partner of SummerHaven Investment Management, a commodities management firm overseeing nearly $2 billion in assets for retail and institutional clients including endowments, foundations, and family offices. For over 13 years, Ashraf was a senior leader at UBS holding a variety of roles in New York and London including Global Head of Commodities Trading, Global Head of Metals, Global Head of Emerging Markets FX and Global Head of Credit Repo. Previously, he was Head of FX Options Trading in New York for Credit Suisse.

As a second generation immigrant, Ashraf Rizvi discusses how childhood experiences like seeing the fees and inefficiencies associated with remittance payments influenced the creation of Gilded. Rizvi explains the process of moving physical gold to the blockchain and the vast benefits it offers. He describes the current wave of tokenization and blockchain-enabled finance as the fourth revolution, noting its global impact because of the mobile devices’ ubiquity.

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MODERATOR

SPEAKER

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Ashraf Rizvi

Chief Executive Officer & Founder

Gilded

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 – Intro and background

4:38 – Founding Gilded

8:10 – Moving physical gold to the blockchain

10:22 – History and value of gold

14:31 – Mechanics of Gilded

20:10 – Crypto vs. gold

22:30 – Gilded for Good and its positive impact

25:35 – Sustainability and lower environmental impact

28:10 – Tokenization of asset classes

32:10 – Gold’s performance and the fourth revolution

36:11 – Conclusion

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie: (00:12)
Hello everyone. And welcome back to SALT talks. My name is John Darsie. I'm the managing director of SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance, technology and public policy. SALT talks are a digital interview series with leading investors, creators, and thinkers. And our goal on these talks is the same as our goal at our SALT conferences, which we're excited to resume in September of 2021, September 13th to the 15th here in our home city of New York for the first time.

John Darsie: (00:44)
But our goal on these talks and the goal that we have on these conference series is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And we're very excited today to bring you a SALT talk with Ashraf Rizvi. Ashraf is the founder and CEO of Gilded and is responsible for the strategic direction and day to day running of the firm. He has over 20 years of executive experience as founder, managing partner and global business head.

John Darsie: (01:15)
Prior to founding Gilded, Ashraf was the co-founder and managing partner of SummerHaven Investment Management, a commodities management firm overseeing nearly 2 billion in assets for retail and institutional clients, including endowments, foundations and family offices. For more than 13 years, Ashraf was the senior leader at UBS, holding a variety of roles in New York and London, including global head of commodities trading, global head of metals, global head of emerging markets FX and global head of credit repo.

John Darsie: (01:45)
Previously he was the head of FX Options Trading in New York for Credit Suisse. And prior to that, he was a senior trader at Susquehanna Investment Group. Ashraf earned a Bachelor of Science in economics from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He also served more than 15 years on the undergraduate board and the Europe, middle east and Africa board at the Wharton school.

John Darsie: (02:06)
Hosting today's talk is Anthony Scaramucci, who is the founder in managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, which is a global alternative investment firm. Anthony is also the chairman of SALT. And with that, I'll turn it over to Anthony for the interview.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:17)
Through all these SALT talks, I'm surprised you haven't mispronounced my name once, just to give it to me a little Darsie.

John Darsie: (02:25)
Tony Scaramucci. I'll go with that one next time.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:27)
You're going to do something like that, okay.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:30)
Ashraf, you got an amazing career. So I want to start there. Let's go to the amazing career. You come out of school, what's the first thing you do?

Ashraf Rizvi: (02:40)
Well first, I'd like to say thanks a lot for having me on Anthony and John. I'm looking forward to the conversation. So, undergrad out of Wharton. Decided to start my first business venture right out of school with a number of colleagues. We started trading in Philadelphia, grew to New York, Chicago over the years, and it was a great learning experience. We were trading FX derivatives. It was a phenomenal time in the marketplace and we had a great opportunity to learn and grow as individuals.

Ashraf Rizvi: (03:12)
And then ultimately, ended up at Susquehanna where we got the opportunity to trade in a bigger environment over the counter. Was involved in the early days of the ERM breakup. And of course, the demise of Sterling on Black Monday as well. So it was a great learning experience and a great opportunity to learn what it was like to be an entrepreneur.

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:32)
Okay. So I'm going to stop you there because you got a lot of young listeners. When you say the ERM breakup, what you're referring to is the exchange rate mechanism that dissolved in 1992. There were short positions put on. One of the most famous ones was Stanley Druckenmiller and George Soros, where they were shorting the pound, because they knew that the Brits wouldn't be able to support the pounds valuation and they would have to accept some level of devaluation.

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:02)
I think it's a good point because you have a lot of history with this. We've been devaluing our Fiat currency since 1971, August of 1971. The US government under Richard Nixon's orders took the US dollar off the gold standard, $35 an ounce. Today, I guess it's around $1700 or so.

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:23)
And tell us why all of these things are important and how they lead up to and are the precursor to you being the founder of Gilded.

Ashraf Rizvi: (04:37)
So I think the story really starts at that, I view it as my entire life. I feel like I was getting ready to do something like Gilded. And I point to maybe a few things. So one, the extensive experience in the financial markets. So having lived through that breakup of ERM, Black Monday, being involved in the financial markets, whether it was dealing with central banks, high net worth clients, family offices, institutional clients who want good money management, all of these, I think, contributed to what I've been able to do.

Ashraf Rizvi: (05:16)
I think also the other part that was very important is that I had the opportunity to start two different companies that were successful. One right out of school that we just touched on. Another that was started during the great financial crisis, that grew to manage a few billion dollars in commodity assets. And then there's also a personal touch to it. So I'm a second generation immigrant. My parents are originally from India. They moved in the 60's. I grew up in a small town in Iowa, so classic Americana. And I still remember, my parents used to send money back home to their family and help them be successful in difficult economic times in the 70's. And I remember my dad telling me about the fact that the gold price was, as you touched on, $35 an ounce back then. The rupee was seven and a half to the dollar. Today it's 74.

Ashraf Rizvi: (06:10)
And so, what we're looking at is a world where we've seen currency debasement. The dollar has become less valuable. The rupee has become less valuable. All currencies have become less valuable. Their purchasing power has shrunk tremendously. From 1971 on, the dollar has lost 95% of its purchasing power. And you know that, we all know this. If you go to the store and you buy eggs or milk or anything, you know that it costs a lot more than it used to.

Ashraf Rizvi: (06:41)
And so I think this is really what's driving the push now more than ever for things, assets like gold, which has served as a tremendous and a historic store of value for thousands of years. The problem is, it hasn't been functional. And so what Gilded really does, is we take physical gold and we make it digital, mobile and usable, which is really about making it functional. How can we make it operate like money without all the negatives of money, which is that, there's the general currency debasement across the world, the big issuance of debt and spending, which ultimately is going to be hard to pay back. And so here's something that we can use that's stable, supportable and something that can hold its value over the long term.

Anthony Scaramucci: (07:32)
So let me rephrase it, just so as I know that I have it, and maybe John could also help me with this. You are basically a warehousing gold. And so you're going to then digitize it over the blockchain so that people can own portions of the gold that you're warehousing. They're buying it from you. Do you think that that goal then would trade differently than just spot price gold in the marketplace? Or do you think that the fact that it's been enhanced by a digitalization or the digital model, the blockchain, makes it more valuable?

Ashraf Rizvi: (08:11)
That's a really good point, Anthony. So I think it makes it much more valuable, in the sense that it becomes functional. And so by that what I mean is, that you get all the benefits of owning the physical asset. So first, what's the benefit. One is that it's your title and it's your property. And so if we think about the fractional reserve banking system, you don't have that. When you deposit money, when any of us deposit money in a bank account, it's no longer your money, it the bank's money, and they give you an IOU.

Ashraf Rizvi: (08:40)
When you have securities or other assets often that you hold, they become the custody of some other party at the end of the day. And you have counterparty risk. Let's think about the great financial crisis. You might have securities at an institution that could go under. In our case, in Gilded, it's not us who are the custodians, it's your property, it's your title. It's sitting in a Brink's vault, fully insured, audited, both for the quality of gold, but also that it's audited that you are holding is immutably stored on the blockchain.

Ashraf Rizvi: (09:10)
So you get all of those features, but you also get the additional feature of the fact that we can make it functional. So in certain countries such as India and middle east and Turkey, we already have product where you can send it to someone else instantaneously. You can own the entire bar. You can own a partial bar and it's still your property, your title. We aim to launch in the US soon. We have to get some regulatory approvals that allow us to be able to do the send functions, but we'll be able to at least allow you to be able to buy and hold and store, so that you have a better store value. So that's really where I think the value proposition is, is that it's your asset, but it's a functional asset, rather than what a lot of people remember it to be as a very expensive paperweight.

Anthony Scaramucci: (09:57)
Okay. So the non-Bitcoiners out there, the Bitcoin skeptics or the crypto asset skeptics, they should like this, right? They're getting the best of both worlds. They're getting a material money, hard currency. However you want to describe what gold has traditionally been over the last 5,000 years. And they're getting the convenience and the portability and the transferability of the blockchain.

Ashraf Rizvi: (10:22)
Exactly. So I think our core vision is about freedom from Fiat. And as you know, Anthony, gold has served as freedom from Fiat for 3000 plus years. It was the original money. It served as the foundation for money for thousands of years. And up until 1971, it backed pretty much all the currencies through the US dollar, which ultimately was tied or pegged to various other countries currencies. Since then of course, we've really floated freely. So, that I think is an important part of it.

Ashraf Rizvi: (10:57)
Of course, the vision is to make it digital, mobile and usable, as we've talked about, and really make it functional. And so I think for investors, I like to think of it as freedom of choice. Depending on what it is that you want, if you want that physical asset, as well as the digital component, I think we're a great place for you to go. I think it's all also valuable in the sense that we know that gold is pretty stable. The price isn't moving a lot on a day to day basis. It's it's not a get rich, quick, fast. It's about stay rich quick for a long period of time. And protect your wealth, store your wealth. And do it in a safe, secure way, but also have the ease of use where we can use a mobile device to be able to access the marketplace and to have the benefit of the liquidity of the entire gold market, which is huge. On a daily basis, trading close to $200 billion a day, which makes it roughly the fifth largest currency in the world.

Anthony Scaramucci: (11:58)
And listen, I'm a Bitcoiner, but I'm also, have a huge amount of respect for gold. I think you've had 5,500 years of history, if not longer. If you go back to the tombs, Egyptian tombs are all layered in gold. So obviously it's had value. It's held value throughout generations, throughout world history. So tell us how you're going to create demand for this. What is the audience that Gilded is going to be attracting?

Ashraf Rizvi: (12:29)
So I think the great thing about this product is that, I think the audience is everyone. So whether you're an individual, investor, whether you're a hedge fund asset manager, pension fund, institutional client, corporate, or even a government, you're a target audience for us at the end of the day.

Ashraf Rizvi: (12:47)
Why? One, store of value. Everybody's looking for better stores of value. Gold is a great store of value. It has served that purpose, as you just mentioned for thousands of years. And people know it, they trust it and it's quite stable. So that's most important, is, let's take that store of value that we know and let's make it functional. Let's make it do things that you can't do with it if you just buy the brick and put it in your safe deposit box or in your house. Let's make it movable.

Ashraf Rizvi: (13:22)
So in other words, let's offer the ability to send it to other people. And so in the US, we hope to be able to offer that in the coming months once we have regulatory approval. We're already doing it in other countries. Let's make it possible to earn a yield, yield enhancement product. Let's tie it perhaps to a credit card or debit card. Let's make it possible to take a loan against that physical gold. It's your property, it's your asset. So you can take a much higher loan than for example you can with the securities markets for an ETF or something like that. Let's make it pledgable as collateral. So if we can make it pledgable as part of repo or other factors that, other mechanisms that can allow you to access liquidity. All of these become possible when we digitize that asset, which are not possible when it's just a physical asset, as has been for thousands of years.

Anthony Scaramucci: (14:20)
And tell us about the fees. And how do you get access first of all? Do you need to go through your digital app or are you going to be on people's platforms? And then what are the fees?

Ashraf Rizvi: (14:31)
So the fee, there's really three layers of fees and it depends on what you use. So first the fee is for onboarding. So you buy the asset and now you've got it in the vault and you get all the benefits of having that. So there's a small fee for that, typically 1%. And now you own that physical asset at the end of the day.

Ashraf Rizvi: (14:53)
A second fee is if for the storing, the validation, the audit of both the gold, the blockchain of your respective ownership, and that's typically 50 to a hundred basis points, depending on the size of your holdings. And so here, it's applicable, as I said, for the retail client all the way to a corporate or government. And the nice thing is, if you're sending gold to another party, it's free. So you can think of it as a super highway, in that, once you're on the highway and you have access to the asset, now you can and move it freely, 24/7 [inaudible 00:15:33] So those are the two primary fees.

Ashraf Rizvi: (15:37)
A third fee is, in the event we offer you a premium type of service or additional service such as a loan or a yield enhancement product, or a ability to pledge as collateral, then we may do a revenue share with the party who helps us facilitate that. But for typical, for most people, it'll be the purchase and then the storage and validation. And I'd like to just point out Anthony, which I think is very important is that, compared to if you did this yourself, or you did it online or bought the physical asset yourself, these fees tend to be considerably cheaper than what you would be paying if you're doing it by yourself.

Anthony Scaramucci: (16:21)
Okay, very informative. How is the gold secured from a physical and cybersecurity perspective?

Ashraf Rizvi: (16:29)
So that's something of course that's very important to every investor. And you know this Anthony, from what you do is that, safety of the assets for the clients is paramount. And so we do a number of things here. So one, first of all, the asset itself is sitting in a Brink's vault. Brink's has more vaults than any other facility in the world. They have them everywhere. We have Swiss based Brink's vaults. We can also store in New York, London, various other cities and countries around the world.

Ashraf Rizvi: (17:01)
Fully insured by Lloyds of London. Audited, physically the gold is audited within the vault, that it exists and it's the real thing. And of course, auditing of your holdings and the blockchain in which it's kept, which is Hyperledger. So it's a permission blockchain. So full KYC/AML compliance. So we're very sensitive toward the regulatory side.

Ashraf Rizvi: (17:25)
And then from a cyber security perspective, we're leveraging Microsoft Azure, AWS major cloud service providers, which have built in significant cybersecurity. And then we're also focusing on it through other vendors. And also on protecting your PII, where we segregate that and split that from anything we store in the blockchain. So your personal information is retained completely separately.

Ashraf Rizvi: (17:51)
And so all of these things are very, very important. But of course, one of the most important things here is, you own the physical asset. Somebody can't steal your digital part, and then that's it. You still always have the physical asset and you also have the right and the ability to take physical delivery if you want.

Anthony Scaramucci: (18:10)
When are you launching in the US, Ashraf?

Ashraf Rizvi: (18:13)
So we're hoping to go live here on beta, early beta, here in the next few weeks through the Apple store and through Google Play. And I believe that by SALT we'll be in the marketplace. And then we're waiting for a approval from regulators for cross border activity. And so what that means is, that we have to get certain money transmission license, et cetera, which we've already in the process of applying for. And that will allow us to make it possible for party A to send to party B instantaneously, 24/7.

Ashraf Rizvi: (18:48)
We do have that ability to all already do that in India and various other countries that we're operating in. I'll just point out that the US is a little more complicated because that activity is governed on a state by state level. And so you have to tackle each state independently. There's no way to do it at the country level. And some other places you're able to do that.

Anthony Scaramucci: (19:15)
Before I let you go, I got to ask a question. John Darsie's going to take over here in a second. He's going to, of course, try to outshine me. And the good news is, I know he is at his house right now, and I only live two miles from him. If he tries to outshine me Ashraf, I'm going to run him over with my car sometime this afternoon. So that's just a threat, John. So you can report that to the local police.

Anthony Scaramucci: (19:39)
But before I bring John in, who will ask [inaudible 00:19:43] questions, of course, what do you say to the crypto people? What do you say to Bitcoiners, people in the space of Ethereum? What's your reaction as a advisor, as a business person? Should they be selling their crypto to own Gilded and gold? Should they own some of it? Both? What do you say?

Ashraf Rizvi: (20:11)
Well, first I'll start by saying, we're not crypto, and we're not a stable coin, and we're not part of the Frank [inaudible 00:20:18] banking system. So that's first thing, in that, we're providing you the ability to own that physical asset, and then making it digital, mobile and usable. That's item one. And the second thing I think I would say is that, we're about freedom of choice. People have an interest in non Fiat assets. And I think gold has been the original non Fiat asset for thousands of years. And I believe it'll continue to exist. And we can make it more functional than it has ever been before. And that's what the objective Gilded it is.

Ashraf Rizvi: (20:58)
I think for all investors, whether it's individuals, hedge funds, asset managers, pension funds, governments, they need to have a variety of assets in their portfolio. And I think there's a place for all sorts of different assets, whether it's stocks or bonds or gold, or digital gold in our case, or crypto. And that's ultimately up to the users. But at think we occupy a different space. I don't think we have conflict with crypto or, stablecoin or Fiat for the matter. I think we just offer a different solution that can be helpful to people, help ultimately in their store of value, protect their life savings and be non-correlated assets to stocks and bonds, which when they tend to sell off, gold tends to shine very brightly. And so there's a very important place that it serves. And I think we can make it more functional than it has ever been before. And that's the whole mission behind Gilded.

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:07)
It's a great message and a great product. I'm going to turn it over to John.

John Darsie: (22:14)
Ashraf, it's great to have you on here. We look forward to having you at SALT as well. What is Gilded for good? And how do you see that part of your business or the initiatives that you work on? How do you see that developing over the next five to 10 years?

Ashraf Rizvi: (22:30)
So Gilded for good is something I'm really excited about. I think it's an opportunity for me, after having done so many things in Wall Street to really, to do something that can make a positive impact on society. And so how can we do that? So I think there's many ways. So one, let's look at my own personal case of my parents sending money back home. Remittances, $600 billion market average fee that people are paying is 6% to send money back home to their loved ones. We can make that cost at least less than 50% of that. And so here's an opportunity where we can have a positive impact.

Ashraf Rizvi: (23:09)
Second, is think about the billion people on the planet who are unbanked. The financial system has not served them well. We're already in conversations with various firms that, how can we allow these folks to be able to complete the KYC/AML process and able to hold that asset that they want, which gives them store value and be able to plan for their financial future.

Ashraf Rizvi: (23:38)
Third. The hundred dollar bill is the most laundered instrument in the world. Gold is second and art is third. By holding that gold in a vault and having it digitized and traced, it means we can take a certain amount of that asset out of the system where it can't be laundered. And we know exactly who's got it, where they're keeping it. And that's good, whether it's from a CRS or FACTA perspective, but it's good from a government regulation perspective as well.

Ashraf Rizvi: (24:11)
And we can also make an impact on the environment. Most of the gold that exists in the world, 200,000 tons is already been taken out of the ground. That's 80% of all the gold there is in the world. That only leaves 20%. 1% comes out per year. So we by re-refining existing gold or using gold that's already in a vault, we can reduce the burden on the environment by not moving it. We're not consuming hydrocarbons. We're not putting it on a plane or on a truck. It's just moving from, let's say, me, to Anthony, or it's staying in our possession, it's staying in a vault. Very low energy usage. And so I think all of these are ways that we can have a positive impact on society.

John Darsie: (24:57)
The sustainability piece was another interesting piece to me. There's a lot that's been made in the cryptocurrency world about Bitcoin, the energy that goes into Bitcoin mining. Oftentimes Bitcoiners, they retort to those accusations as well. Mining precious metals and transporting precious metals and the entire security ecosystem that exists around safeguarding fiscal assets, that uses a lot of energy as well. How do you think that Gilded and these types of technologies are going to disrupt sustainability questions around gold and precious metals, and what's your view on that sustainability piece?

Ashraf Rizvi: (25:33)
I think that's a great question, John. I think the key here is that there's a big [inaudible 00:25:40] cost. As I said, 80% of the gold is already out of the ground. And it's sitting in really, three or four places. Really three main places, but four in aggregate. So one, half of it is in jewelry. 25% is in bars and coins. And 20% is in central banks. And then the balance is basically in functional applications, like yours and my iPhones or Samsung devices or laptops, computers, various other in industrial applications.

Ashraf Rizvi: (26:15)
And so that's already out of the ground and we've already paid the cost of that. We don't need to pay an additional cost. Now we're just storing it at the end of the day. And that's a relatively low cost to exercise. And as I said, relatively small amount of the gold comes out. That part is a dirty business. And I think the mining companies are doing a better job of addressing that, but it's not something that we have to maintain on an ongoing basis. Once you take it out, you put it in a vault and stays there. So I think that's very important.

Ashraf Rizvi: (26:45)
And I think the other thing is, there is a benefit to society if we can cut down on illicit and [inaudible 00:26:51] activity. That's positive for society. And so whether it's the hundred dollar bill, or a bar of gold, or art that's [inaudible 00:27:00] illicit, anything that reduces that, or can reduce things like human trafficking or child labor, all of these, these are all often associated with various instruments that people are using in order to be able to get paid so that they can't be traced. And so this is something that we can clearly cut down on, and I think that's a positive from a social good.

John Darsie: (27:24)
So your career that I read at the beginning of this SALT talk, you're steeped in financial markets. You've been involved in FX markets, commodities markets, you're a markets guy. And we had another group on for a SALT talk recently. The CEO was talking about how he thinks of eventually, there's a world of crypto, there's a world of FX, there's commodities, there's the traditional stock market today. He thinks that with the rise of blockchain and other technologies, that those markets, that the lines between them are going to blur.

John Darsie: (27:57)
Would you agree with that sentiment, that you think that eventually there's going to be tokenization blockchain technology that applies across all kinds of different asset classes? And what do you think the implications of that are for how financial markets operate?

Ashraf Rizvi: (28:10)
So first I think is, about asset classes. And so I agree with you and your previous speaker that, I think lots of asset classes are relevant to any portfolio. That's modern portfolio theory, goes back to in the 1950s, Harry Markowitz. And so what do we want? We want asset classes that generate positive returns that are non-correlated. That's the goal of every, whether it's a hedge fund manager, pension fund, individual, everybody desires that. Well, I think whether it's stocks or bonds or gold, they all fit that bill, in that they generate positive returns, non-correlated. And I suspect your prior speakers touching on the same point with crypto, or even whether it's wine or art, think there are many assets that fit these bills. So they're relevant from that modern portfolio perspective. So I would agree with that.

Ashraf Rizvi: (29:12)
The second part of the question is related to blockchain. So I have to admit I'm a huge fan of it. And I suspect you and Anthony are as well for a lot of reasons in that, we both share this common experience of managing money as a fiduciary for other people. And we've all had to deal with the fact that we have data, whether it's about our individual trades or managers, et cetera, that we have to retain. And then our auditor has that data. And then the exchange has that data. And our administrator has that data.

Ashraf Rizvi: (29:46)
So all these different parties have to get this data in order to perform their function. And so I remember that this was an enormous exercise. You have to validate it, you have to reconcile it. With blockchain, we all have the one set of data, which is the source of truth. And we can all share that. What a powerful solution that is for any financial firm and for anybody that, whether it's my data, my auditors can have it, other parties that I work with have it. And we all know have the exact same thing. I think that's a really powerful thing, and it's going to be huge in the financial markets.

John Darsie: (30:28)
The last question before we let you go. Over the last decade or so, obviously cryptocurrencies have been on fire. If you look at percentage appreciation of those assets, from very fringe pieces of technology, to now somewhat mainstream, especially if you look at things like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Gold during that period hasn't performed as well. Anthony actually did a recent debate with Peter Schiff on gold versus cryptocurrencies. As Anthony said, he's not a gold bear per se, but it was just an intellectual conversation around the future of alternative stores of value.

John Darsie: (30:58)
But I think gold in the context of something like cryptocurrency obviously doesn't feel as technologically forward or advanced as this new world of blockchain digital assets. Do you think companies like Gilded are going to help transform the image of gold and potentially help gold rebrand itself and potentially drive better performance over the next decade? Or do you think it's more of something you're just trying and get people access to what you think is a very stable store of value and insurance against a lot of craziness that happens in the world?

Anthony Scaramucci: (31:29)
But Ashraf, just to iterate, before you answer the question. In that debate with Peter Schiff, I was just talking about the virtue of Bitcoin. He thinks Bitcoin is worthless. And so I'm just saying to him, it's not worthless. Here are the properties of why it isn't worthless, but I have a tremendous amount of respect for gold. I'm trained as an economist like you, and I understand the value that gold has had in our civilization for millennium. And, and so therefore I have a tremendous amount of respect for gold. It's not a debate with me, whether about gold is going to exist or not. I think it's more about will Bitcoin be here. I believe it will be. But go ahead. Answer the question.

Ashraf Rizvi: (32:08)
I agree. Let's start at the basic level. So first it has been a store of value for thousands of years and has been a good store of value since it's really been separated from government control, which really starts in 1971. And as I said, 8% a year for the last 50 years. And I think you touched on and a key point there, John, which is that, that doesn't mean you get 8% every year. It doesn't mean you get three quarters of percent every month. It's not a financial instrument, like a T-bill or a T-bond, or a corporate bond at the end of the day. Of course, there you take a different kind of risk. Maybe you don't get paid at all. And they default.

Ashraf Rizvi: (32:47)
So you get the asset, you get the return from the asset over long periods of time. But over shorter periods of time, there may not be any return or it could even go down. So it's similar to currencies, for example. And so I think the last 10 years we've seen that. It has been pretty flat. But if we look at the last 20 years, since the beginning of the millennium, gold has rallied 9% per year, and it's done better than stocks and bonds. Also, if we look at the bigger picture, 1980s, 1987, dot-com bubble, great financial crisis, 2020 COVID, in each of these cases, these were stress events where stocks and other risky assets fell tremendously. In most cases, 30, 40, even 50%. Gold in all of those cases went up. This is part of portfolio exercise. And this is part of more modern portfolio theory. And this is why people should own the asset.

Ashraf Rizvi: (33:47)
With regards to the other thing that you touched on, which is bringing it into the 21st century, I think we're living in the fourth revolution. That's where we're at. The first one is really about the UK. And the second one of course is about Detroit and mass production. And the third one is largely about Silicon Valley and technology. This fourth one, I think most people believe is a global phenomenon.

Ashraf Rizvi: (34:20)
And so here's an opportunity where we can impact people on a global basis by leveraging technology and leveraging that most ubiquitous devices, which is a smart phone or a mobile phone, which most people on the planet who are over 10 years old, possess. And so now we're making it possible for them to access this store of value that they'd like to have, own it, as their property, their title, and have it stored way in a safe, secure way, and be able to do it from their mobile phone. And they can log in, create account and make a purchase in just in a matter of minutes from anywhere. That I think is about bringing it to 21st century. And that's, I think, where the world is headed is, that more solutions and products will be all about ease of use and access to what people desire and want. And here we're making it digital, mobile and usable.

John Darsie: (35:16)
Well Ashraf, it's a pleasure to have you on. What you've built is a fascinating innovation. Again, that you just touched on, that it's bringing something that's been a store of value for thousands of years into the fourth revolution that's going on here with digital assets. So congratulations on all you've built and continue to build. We look forward to seeing you very soon at the SALT conference in New York. We're very excited. In the New York post, we have Eric Adams, the mayor of New York confirmed his attendance recently, reaching an olive branch to the business community in New York, as new Yorkers are very excited about that. And everything related to the conference. We have a great lineup, including yourself. So thanks for joining us. Look forward to seeing you soon.

John Darsie: (35:55)
Anthony, you have anything for Ashraf before we let him go?

Anthony Scaramucci: (35:57)
I'm just letting you know, I'm going to invite you back on SALT Talks if you digitize those Muhammad Ali signed gloves behind you, and you offer me them up in an NFT, which I'll gladly purchase. Those are some hot gloves Ashraf.

Ashraf Rizvi: (36:11)
Well, look, John and Anthony, thanks so much for your time. I really enjoyed the opportunity to have the conversation. Again, just wrapping it up. Gilded, where it's all about making physical gold digital, mobile and usable. And really making that asset functional like money and being able to offer all the different services that people want and desire. Whether it's being able to borrow against it, create a return, be able to do it on a easy to use mobile application. And so that's what we're really excited about. Our vision of course, is about freedom from Fiat. And I want to thank you for your time and I really enjoyed the conversation. And I'm looking forward to participating in SALT.

John Darsie: (36:51)
Thank you Ashraf. Thank you everybody for tuning in to today's SALT talk with Ashraf Rizvi from Gilded. Just a reminder, if you missed any part of this talk, or any of our previous SALT talks, you can access them on our website at salt.org to view all of these episodes that we've done over the last 18 months on demand.

John Darsie: (37:07)
We're also on social media, @SALTConference on Twitter is where we are most active. We're also on LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook as well. And please spread the word about these SALT Talks. Again, we love educating people about innovative companies, innovative ideas and Gilded is certainly on the frontier of FinTech innovation with what they're doing around gold.

John Darsie: (37:27)
But on behalf of Anthony and the entire SALT team, this is John Darsie signing off from SALT Talks for today. We hope to see you back here again soon.

Matt Brown: Alternative Investments for All | SALT Talks #253

“Financial advisors won’t access alternatives just because it’s easy if they don’t understand the products, how to implement the strategy, or how talk to their clients about it… It’s really about education first and that’s why we started leading with learning.”

CAIS founder and CEO Matt Brown details his early career as a financial advisor before embarking on an entrepreneurial career that led to CAIS’s creation. Brown explains the massive opportunity that existed in the independent wealth management space and how CAIS was designed to connect independent financial advisors and alternative investments. He describes the game-changing nature of CAIS IQ, an AI-powered learning platform that delivers a customized education experience for advisors. The pandemic only accelerated CAIS’s growth as advisors leaned on virtual solutions and Brown expects significant progress over the next decade.

Matt has spent over 30 years at the intersection of wealth management, alternative investments, and platform design. He began his career as a financial advisor at Shearson Lehman Brothers and Smith Barney. In 2009, Matt founded CAIS, the first truly open marketplace for alternative investments, where financial advisors and asset managers can engage and transact directly on a massive scale. Financial advisors, the professionals we designate to oversee our economic futures, do not have the same access to alternative investments in comparison to large institutions. CAIS is changing that. Matt believes entrepreneurship is the major driver of economic and social change. He’s spent the better part of two decades working with Endeavor, the world’s leading organization for high impact entrepreneurs.

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MODERATOR

SPEAKER

Headshot - Cropped.jpg

Matt Brown

Founder, Chief Executive Officer & Chairman

CAIS

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 – Intro and background

5:05 – Becoming an entrepreneur

8:12 – Founding CAIS

15:39 – CAIS IQ financial education platform

17:37 – The next ten years for CAIS

23:15 – Scaling financial education with CAIS IQ

27:15 – Evolving wealth management environment

31:20 – Educating financial advisors on crypto

33:36 – Competitive landscape

36:24 – Pandemic effects on CAIS

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie: (00:13)
Hello everyone and welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is John Darcy, I'm the managing director of SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance, technology and public policy. SALT Talks are a digital interview series with leading investors, creators and thinkers. And our goal on these talks is the same as our goal at our SALT conferences, which we're excited to resume here in September of 2021 with our great partner that we're having on here on today's SALT talk but our goal is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And I will say that today's guests share a value set with us at SkyBridge, which is around democratizing access to alternative investments, as well as education around those alternative investments as well.

John Darsie: (01:01)
His name is Matt Brown. He is the founder, CEO and chairman of CAIS. He spent over 30 years at the intersection of wealth management, alternative investments and platform design. He began his career as a financial advisor at Shearson Lehman Brothers and Smith Barney. And in 2009, Matt founded CAIS, the first truly open marketplace for alternative investments, where financial advisors and asset managers can engage and transact on a large scale. He spent the better part of two decades working with Endeavor, the world's leading organization for high impact entrepreneurs. During his tenure at Endeavor, he had the opportunity to mentor dozens of entrepreneurs from around the world, including Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. Matt is honored to have been Endeavor's South African and Turkish boards, to sit on those boards, which ultimately led to the position on the global board of directors for Endeavor.

John Darsie: (01:52)
It's Matt's personal mission to ensure that anyone with a dream and the drive to achieve it, have an equal opportunity to make it happen. Hosting today's talk is, Anthony Scaramucci, who's the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge capital, which is a global alternative investment firm. Anthony is also the chairman of SALT. And with that, I'll turn it over to him for the interview.

Matt Brown: (02:12)
Thanks John.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:13)
I'm looking at Matt's office and I'm seeing my own office there, John. Matt and I share the same location just on different floors in the same building.

Matt Brown: (02:23)
Yeah.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:23)
You have good taste in real estate, Matt Brown.

Matt Brown: (02:25)
Yeah. I'm earning my way up, one of these days I'm going to be on a higher floor [inaudible 00:02:29].

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:31)
No, you're just using ... You're probably on a lower floor because you're more cost conscious and more commercial and entrepreneurially more successful but I want to go way back, let's go to Shearson Lehman Brothers.

Matt Brown: (02:40)
Yeah.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:41)
Why'd you start there? What did you do there? Where were you? Were you down at 55 Water? Where were you?

Matt Brown: (02:48)
Yeah. No, actually San Francisco. I would describe myself very much as the accidental financial advisor. I graduated liberal arts degree, I was put in touch with a potential interview opportunity with a firm I had never heard of, for a job I didn't understand. I sat with the interview at Shearson Lehman Brothers to be a financial advisor. I met with a guy who literally looked like he was at a central casting for Wall Street, walked out of there, thinking, "Boy, that was a big waste of time."

Matt Brown: (03:26)
And the next day, the phone rang and they offered me a position. And back in the day Anthony, we weren't as picky about getting jobs as maybe this generation is. And so thought well, I was just excited to be offered a job out of college. I said yes immediately. Probably didn't even know what I was signing up for but I'll tell you the story there, which I think you'll find interesting. A year into it, I asked him, the gentleman that interviewed me who since became a good friend and mentor of mine, "But why would you take a risk on a kid with a liberal arts degree?"

Matt Brown: (03:58)
Didn't have a finance degree, didn't have an economic degree. And he said, "Because when I interviewed you, we spoke for two hours and I can teach people math but I can't teach people how to communicate and communication's key."

Matt Brown: (04:13)
And that really was a lesson for me. And the first moment of, "Oh. I get it, that business and finance is about personal relationships, trust."

Matt Brown: (04:23)
And also of course, the numbers and the spreadsheets but you really have to have both sides of it. I was a financial advisor for five, six years before starting my first company in the mid 90s, which is in the alternative investment space.

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:35)
You do well at Lehman. You can catch the wave of the bull market at that time, I experienced that as well. If you and I could only go back Matt, because we didn't realize in our youth how easy things were and we probably took for granted those 25, 30% sparkling returns but why'd you leave? Why would you take a risk? You had a great job working for a great firm, why do you leave?

Matt Brown: (05:04)
I think it's a couple of reasons. When you're young ... I was in my 20s, I had always had that entrepreneurial bug. Started a business in college. I had an idea. I had an idea to strike out on my own and talked to a number of people I respected. And I think the same answer came back, which is, "If you think you can do it and give it a shot, do it now because Shearson Lehman will be there if you need to on the way back in but if you're going to strike out, do it young, fail fast and you got your options."

Matt Brown: (05:41)
That's what I did, the only difference there is that I never really ever back to the big company game and just always wanted to be in the seat of an entrepreneur.

Anthony Scaramucci: (05:51)
Okay. You leave, what do you start when you first leave? What's the first business startup?

Matt Brown: (05:56)
First business was a fund that was investing in technology and healthcare companies. And it was really an exciting time. This was the late 90s, we were investing in private companies privately. We were investing in public companies privately. It's also the window of time that I probably have my biggest business regret, which is that I was negotiating with a small, struggling technology company in the Silicon Valley in the late 90s. They wanted a $20 million private placement. And we had the upper hand, they were a little bit in a distress situation. I was probably a little too young to hold back, probably asking for too much. They didn't end up doing the deal with us and I missed the opportunity. And that company was Apple computer, you may have heard of it. And that $20 million would be worth over 15 billion today, so lesson learned there. Always make sure you do a fair deal. You never know who you're negotiating with, could be the next Apple computer.

Anthony Scaramucci: (07:10)
You and I both know there was a lot going on right, because Apple ... At one point, Michael Dell, when they had asked him what Steve Jobs should do upon his return to Apple, he said, "Give the cash back to the shareholders."

Anthony Scaramucci: (07:25)
Of course, that upset Steve. And Steve famously, when Apple crossed the market cap of Dell, he sent out that public statement.

Matt Brown: (07:33)
Yeah, yeah.

Anthony Scaramucci: (07:34)
You never know what's going to happen in life. Of course, you're looking at a person that had the opportunity invest in something called Uber at a $25 million valuation. And I looked at these guys like, "I'm not going to put my daughter in a black car and no one knows who the hell the person is."

Anthony Scaramucci: (07:50)
And if you look at my American Express receipts Matthew, you'll see that my daughter's all over the place in these Ubers and I got that thing ridiculously wrong but got a lot of things right. One of the things you got right is CAIS. It's a FinTech company that you founded, you've run it for more than a decade. For those people that are listening and that don't know anything about CAIS, tell us what CAIS is.

Matt Brown: (08:12)
Yeah. CAIS is a technology platform that connects alternative asset managers, firms like you, SkyBridge, to this highly fragmented community of independent wealth advisors and financial advisors across America. A lot of people don't know that wealth management really is ... It's a story of two cities. You have big firms like Morgan Stanley and Merrill and Goldman wealth management. And there's a dozen of those firms and they control about 50% of the wealth, little over 10 trillion but there's also 10 trillion dollars in independent wealth. And that's tens of thousands of smaller firms that are entrepreneurs, that have built other own wealth management practices, many of which have come out of big firms to start their own. And they lack the infrastructure to really, in many ways, service their clients with the right products and information.

Matt Brown: (09:11)
We thought, I like to call it a bit of a David and Goliath story, I'm always up for a good fight there, "Why don't we build a platform that is a bit like a JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley platform for third party asset managers but why don't we do it in the independent channel and give them a chance to have the same platform experience and the same access to product and education around alternative investments?"

Matt Brown: (09:36)
And early on, it was a slug. There's no shortcuts in building a business but I got to say, in the last few years, especially with COVID now really kicking in, we've been able to just change the behavior of advisors to really use platforms.

Anthony Scaramucci: (09:53)
And so let's describe that to a lay person. Use the platform. And so basically, you have alternative investment managers that you vetted. They're on your platform. Advisors can then click on the technology that you've created to access easily the paperwork and to create the transaction and all of the detailed paperwork and paper trail, if you will, with your help. Is that fair to describe it?

Matt Brown: (10:26)
Yeah, that's definitely part of it. There's a lot more that is important there. We serve two communities. We serve financial advisors that on our platform but we also serve the asset managers that list their products on our platform. When we think about the user experience or the value brought for both sides of our community, financial advisors and asset managers ... I'll start with the financial advisor. Well, what do they need? What problems are we solving for them? Well, alternative investment funds are hard to access, big minimums. We reduce those minimums down to a hundred thousand dollars, 250, $250,000. They're challenging to understand, so we've invested a ... Made a huge commitment to education, scalable education on these products and asset classes. They are challenging to due diligence. And we partnered with Mercer, the global leader in operational investment due diligence to vet all of these funds.

Matt Brown: (11:32)
And then when you finally understand them and how to implement them in a client portfolio, you want to go buy them. They're very cumbersome to buy. We've digitized the entire process to make it really as close to buying a mutual fund as you possibly can get at this stage of the game. A little spoiler alert, there's a lot of change coming and innovation coming, which we can talk about in the industry but yeah, we really have built the entire end to end workflow for that.

Anthony Scaramucci: (11:58)
Seems to be a big shift taking place. It seems like the investment world, the financial advisors becoming more independent. They're leveraging technologies like the ones at CAIS and other vendors. It seems like the wire houses, which would include some of the large investment banks that have huge brokerage teams and FA teams, are losing their grip a little bit on the business. Do I have that wrong? Are there more independent RAs today and is CAIS helping those independent RAs?

Matt Brown: (12:30)
The independent wealth community, the RA community, is absolutely growing. The wire house community, the large firms are also growing. Wealth is growing overall. We are a key player in the mosaic of service providers that will help an independent RIA compete with a more established wealth management firm that may in this case, have access to an alternative investment platform. There's many, many different service providers out there that are trying to in one way, shape or form, recreate the infrastructure access or education that a wealth advisor needs to best serve their client. Yes, we're really trying to champion that on behalf of the wealth advisor.

Anthony Scaramucci: (13:16)
Okay. Explain the CAIS value propositions on both sides, for the alternative investment manager or the private equity person or long-only and the FA. Tell us what the benefits are.

Matt Brown: (13:30)
On the FA side, as I just mentioned, it's the user experience. It's making information and product accessible. And it's streamlined execution, which was very cumbersome in the past. And that package, that turnkey if you will, is really allowing alternatives to be accessible and investible in end client portfolios. The value prop to the asset manager, whether you're a private equity manager or a hedge fund manager or real estate manager, crypto, private credit venture, all things alternative, they're looking at the CAIS platform and saying, "Wait a second. There's a multi-trillion dollar pool of capital out there in the independent wealth space that have allocation rates of less than 2% in alternative investments. Not because they don't want alternatives but they lack the access to them."

Matt Brown: (14:24)
And the CAIS platform has a very efficient way to deliver those new investors. If I'm an asset management firm and I want to grow and diversify my shareholder base in a channel of investor that I don't normally spend time in, we're a very efficient way to be able to do that. In many ways Anthony, these two communities have for so long wanted to meet, that the resistance isn't around alternative asset managers wanting wealth management as shareholders or investors or wealth advisors wanting alternatives, it's the mechanisms in the industry structure that prevented it and we're ironing that out.

Anthony Scaramucci: (15:08)
Makes total sense to me. And I think it's a very exciting time in our industry because technology like yours is making for greater independence, greater freedom, also broader choice and ease of use. It's a combination of these things that makes the CAIS platform so valuable. You've made some big investments in education technology in addition to the core investment platform.

Matt Brown: (15:34)
Yeah.

Anthony Scaramucci: (15:34)
What's your vision for what you're calling CAIS Q?

Matt Brown: (15:39)
CAIS IQ, our educational platform ... Yeah, we are investing a lot in education. I think this 10 year journey that we've been on, we started where I think many other platform forms have started. Some have stopped there as well, which is, "Hey, if we make it easier or a little more seamless, we're going to be able to make this transaction flow increase over time."

Matt Brown: (16:03)
And that's not incorrect, it's just not the full story. Financial advisors will access alternatives if it's made easier but they're certainly not going to access alternatives just because it's easy, if they don't understand the products or they don't understand how to implement the strategies or they don't understand how to talk to their clients about the strategies. When we realized that, and that was a real turning point for CAIS, that this is really about education first. And that's when we started to really lead with learning, not lead with product, not lead with a wealth tech solution to make subscription documents faster. This is really about educating financial advisors, bringing knowledge and information around strategies, around fund and product and doing it in a scalable way. CAIS IQ is the leading AI powered, artificial intelligence powered, learning platform that uses machine learning and light AI to understand on a one on one basis how the financial advisor is learning and then delivering information to them around these strategies over a period of time.

Anthony Scaramucci: (17:13)
Makes total sense, I love it. You start in '09, the world is totally different. The phone that we have is way more powerful. We had a pandemic, so now we're talking the way George Jetson talked to his wife, "Here we are together."

Anthony Scaramucci: (17:29)
Big differences in the last 10 or 12 years. Tell us what the next 10 years are going to look like.

Matt Brown: (17:38)
As it relates to CAIS specifically, the next decade is very exciting. I think a lot of entrepreneurs probably believe they were early on ideas. I don't think that's an uncommon thing to hear from an entrepreneur or a founder. I can say without doubt, we were very early on this idea, things needed to catch up. I do remember having conversations in 2011 and 12, 13 with big asset management firms. And we were talking about delivering the independent wealth channel to them as investors. They were scratching their head, saying, "Why would we ever do that?"

Matt Brown: (18:15)
Now, it seems you can't speak to an alternative asset manager without them saying, "Wealth is our number one channel priority."

Matt Brown: (18:22)
Just look at Blackstone, look at Carlyle and KKR. We were early on that. We really feel momentum in the flywheel. COVID has just absolutely accelerated platform adoption. And the reason is, is because the average age of a financial advisor is 56 years old and technology and building their business with tech has not always been a priority but when the pandemic came and it forced a change in behavior, it forced an adoption of technology. And we were right there for that. We really feel like this is an exciting time, as you said. A lot of great tailwinds around regulatory environment, structural environment to make this go. What you're going to see, is I think two things. CAIS continuing our mission to democratize access, fill in the blank. It's not going to stop at just what you and I would call alternative investment funds. There's more out there. Anywhere that we can level the playing field for every financial advisor and maybe even beyond to the end investor.

Matt Brown: (19:21)
15 years ago, there was only a fraction of the investment information out there, and you usually went to a financial advisor to learn. Today, individual investors are getting information everywhere. This is the day of Robin hood, this is the day of betterment. We got to think about that end investor in a different way. New products and democratization for sure but the real change here is going to be what you're talking about, this impact that really, forward technology is a going to make on all industries, including ours.

Matt Brown: (19:54)
Anthony, you and I today can go to JK Airport. We can cut the line with TSA because someone told them that at some point, we're actually not bad guys. And that seems to be good enough for us to get on an airplane but if I want to invest in Blackstone's real estate fund, I have to photo my driver's license and send it to them and manually fill out a form. That's ridiculous. With blockchain, with other technologies, it's not about, as we say, putting landlines in faster, it's about skipping two steps and going straight to mobile. It's not about making sub docs more efficient or subscription processes more efficient, it's about eliminating them completely.

Matt Brown: (20:40)
And you're going to see that change happen and when it does, it's going to have a massive impact on the way advisors allocate because if you can start to buy alternatives, like you buy an ETF with a CUSIP and accreditation rules for end investors are changing to include an educational requirement, not just a high net worth requirement, you're going to see a massive change. What's happening today, is that alternatives are replacing active management and that's a sea change of allocation.

Anthony Scaramucci: (21:13)
It makes sense. I got to turn it over to the erstwhile John Darsie, who dressed up for this occasion, didn't realize that he was going to be with two old timers that were dressing like millennials. Now, he's dressed like the old timer.

Matt Brown: (21:29)
You got .hoodie and I got a vest.

Anthony Scaramucci: (21:29)
He's got questions for you and it would be remiss of me not to include him.

Matt Brown: (21:33)
That's really funny though because you're wearing a hoodie, trying to look cool. I got this vest on, trying to ... And [inaudible 00:21:40].

Anthony Scaramucci: (21:40)
You even got great product placement. I'm placing product for Ralph Lauren. I got to get a SkyBridge or a CAIS hoodie going next time.

Matt Brown: (21:48)
I'll send you a CAIS vest.

John Darsie: (21:50)
And at least Matt embraces his distinguished salt and pepper hair, whereas you have too much shoe polish in there. It's very visible on the camera, Anthony. I'm just saying. He's going to ignore that one. But Matt ...

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:05)
[inaudible 00:22:05] why I'm ignoring that. I'm going to tell you why I'm ignoring that, okay. It's not shoe polish, okay. This is very terrific permanent dye and I also put a little bit of a glaze on it. I was experimenting with a glaze prior to the SALT conference, okay. It's not quite what he's saying, okay but go ahead. Keep going, Darsie.

Matt Brown: (22:22)
Yeah.

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:22)
When he needs the shoe polish, he'll be calling me because I'm an expert on hair color, okay but go ahead. Keep going, John.

John Darsie: (22:30)
I want to start with a little plug about our partnership related to SALT. You talked about CAIS IQ and one of the things ... And I was very familiar with CAIS going into our partnership but didn't fully appreciate what you guys have built with CAIS IQ and how important that is to the educational process for both advisors and helping investment managers that are on your platform communicate their unique value proposition to your distribution partners but we have a SALT learning center that we're partnered with CAIS on for the conference, where we are enhancing some of that education that we are both passionate about. It's why we launched SALT, it's why you guys launched CAIS IQ. And it's part of your mission with CAIS. Could you talk about the thinking again, behind CAIS IQ and the SALT learning so center and what we're doing for the conference?

Matt Brown: (23:12)
Yeah, really important. Let's just take a half step back. I'm a former financial advisor and I know a lot of financial advisors and have throughout my entire life. And I can tell you one thing, financial advisors do not talk about things they don't understand. They have that special role, they are the advisor, consultant to their client. They are to a large degree, expected to know a lot about a lot of different things. If you don't understand as a financial advisor, a hedge fund or a private equity strategy or a crypto strategy, there's a very good chance it's not going to come up in a conversation and certainly not going to end up in a portfolio. We wanted to understand, "How can we get education on this out and broad?"

Matt Brown: (23:59)
... but there is no real method. White papers, seminars, all manual, no one reads them, PowerPoints, forget COVID even attending anything. We needed a modern approach to learning. And I met an individual named Andrew Smith Lewis, who spent his entire career at the intersection of AI, machine learning. And he built an amazing platform and I made him an offer he couldn't refuse. I said, "Let's go transform education and wealth management."

Matt Brown: (24:31)
We built at CAIS, the most modern learning application, where we gamify learning in a way and measure impact of that learning through data for each individual advisor. Fully scalable, it's on an app on a desktop and what we're finding now, is that many, many of our advisory firms, whether big or small, are really wanting their advisors or in some cases, mandating their advisors to interact with CAIS IQ before they make their investments on behalf of their clients. And it's really making a difference. Advisors are feeling more armed with information, having better client conversations. And we're doing what we want to do, which is lead with learning and transform this industry.

John Darsie: (25:18)
Yeah. I think you hit the nail on the head with all of that. At SkyBridge, one of the things and one of the reasons why we've been so successful in distributing our fund to funds product into the financial advisory community, is that focus on education and engaging with the advisor and engaging with their clients to help them understand what they're investing in. Like you said, the advisor likes to be able to sound intelligent and be educated on products that they're putting their clients in. And if they're not, they're not going to transact.

Matt Brown: (25:45)
Yeah.

John Darsie: (25:45)
And so I think what you guys have built is amazing, the way you've gamified it. Talk about potential regulation in the pipeline around an education standard, rather than a wealth standard.

Matt Brown: (25:54)
Yeah.

John Darsie: (25:54)
You're allocating to alternatives. I think you guys are laying the groundwork for that and we're very excited to integrate it with SALT for SALT New York, which we're again, excited to partner with CAIS on in September. We're excited about that and having a lot of advisors that are in your community attending the conference, both in person and virtually and al lot of the funds that are on your platform participating as well.

Matt Brown: (26:14)
Yeah. And I have to say, the reception from the advisor side that we've been able to invite has just been overwhelming. We're at capacity and we are at a waiting list right now. It seems like the SALT conference is really ... It's getting a lot of traction and I'm happy to open it up to the RA community. It's great.

John Darsie: (26:35)
Yeah, absolutely. And you guys are a great partner on that. You talked a little earlier about some structural changes that you're seeing in the industry, that are paving the way for greater democratization of alternative investments. We've already seen several FinTech companies that are popping up, that are in their earlier stages. You guys are much more mature and robust in your offering and your business tackling the technology side but there are structural barriers. There are structural opportunities around things like minimums and things of that nature. There's regulatory barriers, there's tech and data barriers. How are you guys addressing those and what are those trends that you're seeing, if you could just explain those again to the audience?

Matt Brown: (27:14)
Yeah, sure. There's just a tremendous amount of tailwinds when it comes to the intersection of wealth management, alternative investments, technology, FinTech. And obviously, we're not the only platform that is benefiting from that. Some platforms that are very close to what we're doing, are doing great. Others that are in adjacent businesses are feeling that but again, our view is, anyone who's contributing to the narrative, to the impact of changing the industry is welcome. We very much believe that like every other aspect of Wall Street and also wealth management, this is not a one market or one platform business. You're going to have a handful of winners, just like there's a handful of custodians, a handful of reporting providers that are doing great work. And that innovation and competition is critical.

Matt Brown: (28:07)
Some of the bigger trends ... I'll just take the regulatory trend for a second. For some reason, it's taken a long time but our government finally realized that just because you're wealthy, doesn't make you smart. And I think that's great because if I went to a great school and decided to get my degree in business or finance and then decided I wanted to spend my time in the nonprofit community and not earn a lot of money but yet I understand complex investments or alternative investments, up until recently, I wasn't able to invest in them because I wasn't wealthy enough but at the same time, there could be an individual who may not know anything about alternative investing but inherits lots of money or maybe they sold a business. And so wealth is not equal capability and that's actually a huge step forward in democratization of access for all, which is a big and important theme. That's the regulatory side.

Matt Brown: (29:05)
The other side of it of course, is just structural. We are seeing more and more innovation right now than we've ever seen before with asset managers creating more wealth friendly investment structures to deliver their strategies to the wealth community. And when I say wealth friendly, what do I mean? Investment minimums that can be scaled across their entire book of business, investment structures that do address lower investment minimums and also accreditation requirements, reporting that's been made easier and faster. There's real structural change at work here. And I think there's a complete adoption happening on the wealth side at scale, as a result of that.

John Darsie: (29:54)
Right.

Matt Brown: (29:54)
Of course, you're also seeing technology play an enormous role, as we talked about. Look at what Apollo just did and their announcement with ... I believe it was Figure, a blockchain company to tokenize funds. We can talk about that for two or three hours but when you start thinking about a world where there's no longer a need for a fund structure, right and you're still able to replicate the rules base of that or legal base of that, that's a game changer.

John Darsie: (30:28)
Yeah. Figure is a fascinating company. We had the president of Figure, Asiff Hirji, on SALT Talks and what they're doing, taking blockchain technology tokenization and bringing it into the institutional world, it's certainly fascinating. I got a question about crypto digital assets. You guys have a Bitcoin fund on your platform, Galaxy. We're great friends with Mike Novogratz, great fans of what they're doing over there. As you guys look at an asset class, I don't need your opinion on whether Bitcoin's going to a hundred thousand or a million dollars a coin but as you guys look at a new asset class and how to onboard those types of products onto your platform, how to educate people around that, how do you guys think about that? Are you more cautious? Are you more responding to customer demand on the product side? Or how did you tackle that decision about whether to include crypto on your platform and how to educate advisors around that?

Matt Brown: (31:20)
Yeah. Everything we do at CAIS, we're a marketplace. We want to take the feedback that we're hearing from the community of investors or financial advisors and make sure that our platform is responsive on what they're interested in. We started crypto, not with the product on our platform but with just educational opportunities, "Let's learn about crypto. Let's start getting a little more fluent on what this means. What is blockchain? What is Bitcoin? How does it work?"

Matt Brown: (31:52)
We found that the topic broadly of blockchain and crypto, has from an engagement score level on our platform, the highest content engagement scores by far. Now, it could be because it's the most popular and least understood but more and more advisors are wanting to learn more and more. We wanted to make sure that we heard our audience and then they started saying, "Well, if we want to take the next step and start to get exposure, how do we do that?"

Matt Brown: (32:23)
And that's when we started looking at the field of players out there, we bring in our partner Mercer, who does the due diligence. And we got very comfortable with Galaxy, with Mike Novogratz's firm and fund and we started there. And we will be always pushing the envelope to a large degree on newer strategies. It's good to have your core basic four food groups right, on the shelf but you also have to have a few other things that are a little bit more satellite and that's what we're doing with crypto and we're going to continue to do with other things.

John Darsie: (32:57)
And I know Andrew Smith Lewis is very crypto enlightened and we're excited to have a conversation with him and Mike Novogratz on the CAIS alternatives track at SALT. Very much looking forward to that one.

Matt Brown: (33:07)
Yeah, that's going to be a [inaudible 00:33:08] conversation.

John Darsie: (33:08)
As you look out ... Yeah, it's going to be fantastic but as you look out on the competitive landscape for CAIS, what do you see as the competitive landscape for CAIS? Obviously, like I was saying, there's a lot of firms that are iterating around FinTech, alternative investments are certainly an area that's hot in terms of companies trying to create solutions to democratize access and go either direct to consumer or through advisor channels but what do you view as the competitive landscape?

Matt Brown: (33:36)
The competitive landscape is evolving. There are more and more platforms coming to market in different ways, trying to maybe put a different spin on approach. There's a couple of very large players who are at least today, dominating. And we think that's fine. The real competitive forces though however, have nothing to do with any of these other platforms. We can call ourselves competitors, we can feel that we might actually in some cases be competing but when you have a 10 trillion dollar market in the independent wealth, with 2% allocation rates to alternatives and then platforms like CAIS are only getting a small fraction of that, what we're really competing against is changing the behavior of financial advisors to use platforms. And I liken that to how an Amazon has changed the behavior of how people shop.

Matt Brown: (34:43)
Anthony, me and you and John, we will literally go and buy something on Amazon that we know is in a store less than a mile away from our house. Why? Because we've now changed how we go shopping. We like Amazon, it's easier, it's faster and we are just not going to hop in the car and go to CVS anymore. And that's changed the behavior. There are more transactions happening in alternative investments by a huge multiple. The old fashioned way of an advisor finding it themselves, doing their own due diligence, maybe filling out cumbersome paperwork, than are happening on platform. When I think about the competitive landscape, I cheer anyone who's competing and adding value that's a quasi competitor because what I think they're doing, is educating the market for us. Really, what we have to be doing is capturing all the transactions out there by convincing financial advisors that the single best way to be able to allocate to alternatives is on an end to end platform like CAIS, where there's education, product menu, due diligence and transactional ease of use.

John Darsie: (35:53)
The pandemic has had a profound impact on a lot of different types of businesses in different ways. It's had a profoundly positive impact on FinTech companies and on any technology driven business. And I'm curious what you guys observed as the impact on the CAIS platform, on funds that you work with on your platform, on advisors that you work with on your platform, how they dealt with the dislocation that took place during March of 2020, at the onset of the pandemic but what's been the overall impact to your business and how you guys think about your business from the pandemic?

Matt Brown: (36:25)
Yeah. Speaking of changing a behavior, the pandemic ... Obviously, not all businesses did well and we always are grateful to be in the category that as a technology platform, we were in the category that was positively impacted by that. What the pandemic did, is it was the true catalyst to change behavior, as we just talked about. As I mentioned, the average age of a financial advisor is in their mid to late 50s. They did not grow up being digitally savvy in many cases. They built their relationships on handshakes, spending time with their clients, so all manual. And we all are creatures of habit and we resist change.

Matt Brown: (37:15)
What happened in the pandemic, because the world did change, we no longer met with our clients face to face, has been a complete shift and adoption of technology across the board, whether it's them meeting now for the first time, truly e-signature capabilities to sign documents, to video technology, to financial advisors no longer needing to meet people to make investment decisions, or asset managers or their teams. As a result of that, people really said, "Okay. This is my time to really take a step forward, be a little more digitally savvy, adopt technology in a big way. I need to do it for my business."

Matt Brown: (37:57)
And CAIS was one of many, many firms that fit that profile. As a result, our adoption rates of a business have skyrocketed, volumes have skyrocketed. And we're feeling like this trend is not going to reverse back the old way, fortunately.

John Darsie: (38:14)
Right. Well Matt, it's been a pleasure to have you on SALT Talks. We're so excited for the partnership, both at New York in September and going forward. We think given our shared values, given the overlaps in some of the ways we look at business and democratization of alternatives, we're excited for that partnership hopefully going forward for many years. Thank you so much for joining us. Anthony, you have a final word for Matt before we let him go.

Anthony Scaramucci: (38:38)
No listen, I think ... Listen, as a fellow entrepreneur who started out as an FA, I get the struggle. And I think what you built is an amazing platform. And I'm super excited to see how CAIS unfolds over the next decade because I think it's going to be your best decade. And so for these young timers that are listening to the call or some of which they're participating on the call, I know that your and my best decade is ahead of ourselves.

Matt Brown: (39:05)
Thanks so much. And I know you're right. And thanks so much for the time. Look forward to SALT. Send me the name of the shoe polish, I could use it.

John Darsie: (39:15)
Oh, I like your look. I like your look.

Anthony Scaramucci: (39:15)
You could use a little bit of so replacement, too. I'm going to work on you though. Don't worry, okay. When I'm done with you Matt, your wife's going to be very happy, okay.

Matt Brown: (39:23)
If I look like you, I'll be in good shape. Take care, cheers.

John Darsie: (39:27)
All right. Well, thank you again, Matt. And thank you everybody for tuning into today's SALT Talk with Matt Brown, the CEO of CAIS. Just a reminder, if you missed any part of this SALT talk or any of our previous talks, you can access them on demand on our website at SALT.org\talks or on our YouTube channel, which is called SALT Tube. We're also on social media. Twitter is where we're most active, @saltconference is our handle but we're also on LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook as well. But on behalf of Anthony and the entire SALT team, this is John Darsie, signing off from SALT Talks for today. We hope to see you back here again soon.

Andrew Steel: ESG Investment Principles | SALT Talks #250

“You need to understand that the expectations of investors in the future will be that you have ESG information available and it won’t be acceptable to say, ‘We don’t really know what our carbon footprint is.’”

Andrew Steel discusses the growth of ESG investing and how Fitch Ratings provides analysis and credit ratings based on ESG metrics. He lays out some of the challenges faced by a lack of standardization around data companies and investors use to inform decision-making. Ultimately, Steel predicts investing will evolve to the point where companies and institutions will integrate ESG information and evaluation into every decision.

Andrew is responsible for developing and implementing Fitch's sustainable finance strategy, across ratings and the broader Fitch group. His group is based in London, New York, and Hong Kong. In 2019 Fitch Ratings rolled out an integrated cross-asset scoring system for credit ratings to display how environmental, social and governance factors impact individual credit rating decisions. Prior to his current role Andrew held several senior management positions for Fitch in EMEA and Asia. Andrew joined Fitch 17 years ago with a background in project finance, private equity, LBO’s and M&A from investment banking and equity investments. Andrew is currently an advisory committee member of the UN PRI credit ratings initiative, and during the early 2000’s was an independent expert for the UN ECE advising on risk issues and sustainable energy development.

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MODERATOR

SPEAKER

Andrew Steel.jpeg

Andrew Steel

Global Head of Sustainable Finance

Fitch Ratings

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 - Intro

3:00 - Growth of ESG

4:56 - How to produce ESG insights

9:50 - Evaluating credit risks and working with regulators

13:42 - Data analysis challenges

16:23 - Modern ESG practices

18:17 - Concerns around greenwashing social-washing

20:21 - ESG prevalence

22:35 - Governance in ESG

28:35 - Evaluating climate risks

32:49 - ESG integration and need for labeling

35:35 - Evaluating EV proliferation

40:21 - Needed pace of ESG growth

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie: (00:12)
Hello everyone and welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is John Darsie. I'm the managing director of SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance, technology and public policy. SALT Talks are a digital interview series that we started in 2020 with leading investors, creators and thinkers. And our goal on these talks is the same as our goal at our SALT conferences, which we're excited to resume this fall at our home city of New York. But that goal is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. In the investment world today, there's no bigger idea shaping the future we think than ESG sustainability and there's no greater expert on that than Fitch. So we're excited to welcome Andrew Steel from Fitch to SALT Talks.

John Darsie: (01:02)
Andrew is responsible for developing and implementing Fitch's sustainable finance strategy across ratings and the broader Fitch group. His group is based in London, which he's outside of London today, New York and in Hong Kong. In 2019, Fitch Ratings rolled out an integrated cross asset scoring system for credit ratings to display how environmental, social and governance factors impact individual credit rating decisions. Prior to his current role, Andrew held several senior management positions for Fitch in EMEA and Asia. Andrew joined Fitch 17 years ago with a background in project finance, private equity, LBOs and M&A from investment banking and equity investments. Andrew is currently on the advisory committee for the UNPRI Credit Ratings Initiative. And during the early 2000s, he was an independent expert for the UN ECE advising on risk issues and sustainable energy development. Andrew graduated from Bristol University with a degree in psychology and as a postgraduate diploma from INSEAD in global management. Hosting today's talk is Anthony Scaramucci who's the managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, which is a global alternative investment firm. Anthony is also the chairman of SALT. And with that, I'll turn it over to Anthony for the interview.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:19)
Andrew, once in a while, John Darsie allows me to do these interviews. So I want to be grateful to you John. I just want to personally thank you. So let's get right into it Andrew and in 2015, you said since 2015 investors have been calling on credit agencies and credit rating companies to get involved in the ESG story and to help investors, institutional investors figure out which companies are adapting sort of ESG practices. Where are we now, sir?

Andrew Steel: (02:57)
Thanks Anthony and thanks John for intro. Yeah, that is something which very much came to the fore in 2015, but I think there's background to it. It's important to remember that ES&G risk issues are not new. They've always been around. And in fact, we have seen investors doing ethical investing for hundreds of years already so the fact that this became far more prominent from 2015 onwards was largely around I think most of the issues that have risen to the fore in terms of climate change. I think there was also a desire amongst financial institutions to try and do some image rebuilding post the global financial crisis and to try and sort of demonstrate that not only were they doing well, but they could also do good at the same time. And so from that sort of 2015 point onwards where we had the social development goals, sort of the standard development goals from the UN being launched and increasing news content around climate change, we saw a real focus on environmental issues.

Andrew Steel: (04:05)
I think the pandemic since then has also caused there to be a heightened interest in social issues. And we'll perhaps come on to talk about that. And it's been a lot of asset owners, I think in general stakeholders in across many industries, in fact, that have been keen to be able to demonstrate how they are also helping to solve some of these issues. And that's really moved from a sort of exclusion policy for investors through now to something which is far more integrated and much more part of the normal process of investment or a fund.

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:40)
Take us through the steps, Andrew, meaning your firm, you have analysts, you have research, you have outreach. Take us through the steps of Fitch in terms of how you synthesize product.

Andrew Steel: (04:56)
Oh and this is quite a journey that we've been on since sort of the early 2018 period particularly as regards ESG. And I think our initial focus with this ask from investors to provide more granularity and transparency around the influence of ESG was very much, we started off by looking at our bread and butter, which is providing independent insight and opinion around credit and credit profiles of entities. And so what we did was we actually started looking at this maybe slightly differently to how others had looked at it in the market to that point. And we said, okay, if we are saying that as an agency, this stuff isn't new and that it's always been there, then how can we extract it and how can we display the ES&G risks as a separate category of risks? And so what we did was we spent a lot of time working with our credit analysts to help adjust the focus of that credit lens that they view everything through.

Andrew Steel: (06:02)
And so we spent time identifying the credit aspects that were relevant for environmental, social and governance factors across each different industry sector and asset class. And it was clear as we did that that this was something that really needed integration into the analysis that we did. So it was a seamless process. So the external parties could see how much of the credit decision we were making was being influenced by this particular sub category of risks. And as we did that, it was clearly very credit focused. It was focused on the credit rating horizons and forecasts that we look at, but it also became apparent to us that you kind of needed to go beyond that. So we needed to look at producing more research around some of the themes and the issues of how they would develop.

Andrew Steel: (06:47)
And so we refocused some of our research team. We created a dedicated research team and we also started doing scenario analysis, particularly when it came to environmental risks because a lot of the crystallization of the cost aspects of environmental risks are over a much longer term. And with that in mind, we've also been working in the background in the last year or so doing a lot of product development and looking at how we can maybe expand also into pure ESG analysis as well.

Anthony Scaramucci: (07:19)
Is it working Andrew? People are picking it up, adopting it? They're using it as a portfolio mechanism and it's influencing the management teams of these companies?

Andrew Steel: (07:33)
I think the short answer to that is yes. And it's not just what we're doing, it's what others are doing in the market as well. I mean, it is interesting when you look at the market as a whole, you see a lot of people who've developed niche solutions to particular individual problems that investors have come across or the market's been been interested in. But I think the unique thing about what we did was we looked at how we perform financial analysis and it's larger... It's a mix of quantitative and qualitative. We then looked at ESG as a subcategory and said does that neatly map to an individual aspect of quantitative analysis for a particular issue or a particular sector? And as we went through the process of trying to extract these ES&G risks from our credit criteria to display them separately, what we discovered is actually as a risk category, it's not very well aligned with an individual area of qualitative analysis or individual area of quantitative analysis.

Andrew Steel: (08:33)
What you find is that individual aspects of environmental, social, governance risks tend to end up spanning several different areas of quantitative and qualitative analysis and influencing those if they materialize and crystallize. And so what we try to do is, and I think we've been pretty successful in doing, and that's why it's started to be quite popular is to be very transparent and granular about how that happens. So it's not a sort of sector based approach, but it's a very specific entity and transaction based approach. Now that is highly technical. And it is also just a portion of the overall equation for an ESG investor. It's the very specific credit portion.

Anthony Scaramucci: (09:18)
It make sense. I guess what I'm very impressed by is the combination of different forces, but how big a role Fitch is playing in actually moving the boulder down the hill. You do have situations where your credit centric scale will sometimes weigh heavily polluting fossil fuel producers, similarly to somebody that's in the renewable business. Is that something you can discuss and why that happens?

Andrew Steel: (09:50)
Yeah, sure. I mean, it is very much the case and that is because we are purely, with our credit ratings and the ESG relevant scores that we produce as an integral part of that, we are purely looking at the credit risk aspects. And so we're not looking at the good or the bad. We're only looking at carbon emissions increasing if there's a credit consequence to that. And a good example that we like to use there is just because you are, say an electricity generation company that only produces electricity from wind turbines, just because you're a neutral energy entity doesn't mean that your credit profile is stronger. If you are a renewable energy entity and the wind turbine electricity that you produce is sold under a feed in tariff and it gets priority of dispatch, then yes, your credit profile is going to be much better.

Andrew Steel: (10:47)
If you actually having to sell into a merchant market and you're a price taker with no priority of dispatch, then actually you're going to have a really poor credit profile. And there was a lot of confusion in the market up until we started to produce this stuff around about the beginning of 2019 where people were saying, oh yeah, yeah, yeah. But because it's a renewable business, it should have a really strong credit rating. And the answer is credit is not the same as ESG. There is a credit component to ESG and isolating that is extremely important. And it's part of the overall analysis toolkit that's required for investors to be able to do their job properly in this space.

Anthony Scaramucci: (11:28)
And how do you guys intersect with the regulators from the various global community of regulators?

Andrew Steel: (11:37)
Yeah, that's a very good and a very interesting question. There is a lot of increased interest from regulators in ESG. The interesting thing about ESG relevant schools that we've produced is they are produced by our regulated business. And so they are fully under the [inaudible 00:11:53] of regulators such as AZMA and the SEC. It's just an integral part of the credit ratings process. That means, in terms of our doing that, it was tough. It was granular. We had to meet very stringent standards. When you look beyond that pure credit aspect, which I was talking about earlier, and you start to look at the bigger picture, pure ESG analysis. So you start to look at that good or bad contribution to social goals and the longer term, you look at preparedness for decarbonization in an industry, then actually there's a lot more subjectivity in that.

Andrew Steel: (12:34)
There's a lot of issues that I think we'll come to talk about around standardization of data, what metrics you should be looking at. And in that respect, it's very much an evolving market. And so from a regulatory perspective, when the regulators are looking at what's going on in ESG at the moment, I think they're starting to become more and more interested because they see more and more influence particularly where you have things like sustainability linked bonds with coupons that are linked to ESG ratings from ESG service providers. And that really, I think, was the trigger point some sort of 18 months or so ago for increased regulatory interest. As the regulators start to look at this and they say, well, hang on a second, we've got pricing triggers occurring in the market from opinion providers who are completely unregulated. And that to my mind is what will mainly drive regulation fairly quickly into this market. Particularly as we've seen sustainability linked claims, increasing a lot in activity recently.

Anthony Scaramucci: (13:33)
Andrew you're also in the data business. Data is super important to make this analysis. Tell us what some of the challenges are there.

Andrew Steel: (13:42)
Well, the challenges have to be a huge, and I'm sure you're aware of that. Most of the most of the listeners are going to be aware of that as well. They're all very big challenges, but then on the positive side, there are a lot of initiatives going on to try and tackle these challenges. And the biggest challenges really are standardization and harmonization of information. I mean, particularly for us as an agency that's largely focused on financial analysis to date, we're used to seeing fairly clear and understandable standards. IFRS, et cetera, where there is a way to report information. There are clear metrics surrounding the reporting of that information. It's easy for financial auditors to conduct an audit on the information that a company provides and be very clear about how compliant that company is or isn't. When it comes to ESG, that sort of stuff is still very much in the early days.

Andrew Steel: (14:43)
And that's very, very problematic actually for most of the companies in the industry sectors that we look at and the investors want to invest in, because what it means is if you're a company and you're being asked for ESG data, if there are no clear standards, there's no harmonization, then it's very difficult for you to know what data you should be gathering internally, how you should be producing metrics to demonstrate your compliance with targets around that data and therefore what can be audited and what you can provide to the market in terms of standardized information. And so that sort of pushing and pulling that's going on between should we set the standards first or let the market decide what the standards are? That's causing huge, huge problems. There is a lot of momentum behind trying to resolve that. And we're seeing people like IFR are starting to get interested in it. And I think that's helping. As well as we're seeing quite substantial initiatives between different countries and regions. So there's a very big initiative at the moment between the EU, the UK and China on standards harmonization. Also the US is starting to sort of pick up the ball on this and the sort of increasing interest at the federal level in the US is definitely going to help push all of this forward, I think.

Anthony Scaramucci: (16:05)
What would you say to a company that is behind the curve as it relates to their carbon footprint or their longterm strategy to get into the acceptability standards of ESG? What type of advice would you give them, Andrew?

Andrew Steel: (16:24)
Well, that's a good question to Anthony and it's one where I have to say we are not allowed to provide advice as a regulated rating agency so I can't provide advice. I can comment on what perhaps are some of the issues for companies. I think there is mounting evidence the over time, no matter what you do, no matter what asset class you're looking at, no matter what sector you are in, there is evidence that reporting on your ESG credentials will just become an integral part of what you need to do to be eligible for investors. And to the extent you don't do that, there'll be liquidity issues going forwards. Now that'll happen over time. And I think what we'll see is that governance tends to be reasonably well reported on.

Andrew Steel: (17:23)
Environmental standards or are appearing for that much more quickly. Social is going to be very difficult. But if you're an entity, then you need to understand that the expectation of investors in the future will be that you have this information available and that it won't be acceptable to say, well, actually we don't really know what our carbon footprint is. And so, in a sense, you don't need it immediately now, but if you're not starting to look at how you gather that information, if you're not keeping up with your competitors in the space, then you will disadvantage yourself over time.

Anthony Scaramucci: (18:01)
Let me ask a different question. Is it possible for people to game the system or is the system so transparent now from an ESG perspective that they can't do that?

Andrew Steel: (18:16)
No, they can definitely game the system. I mean, this is an evolving market and I think we were chatting just before we started this session about green washing, we're also seeing some social washing as well where people are sort of claiming social benefits from activities which are really much more geared to sort of build client basis and a clearly commercial rather than social in nature. But again, the sort of change in mindset for people of the need to report on this and the need to think about it is an important step forward even if we do see some green washing and some social washing along the way. I mean, for some big financial institutions, for instance, it's very easy for them to reclassify parcels of assets into being either environmentally friendly or socially friendly, but they weren't created in the first place for that purpose.

Andrew Steel: (19:15)
They were created because they were commercially viable. But the interesting thing is once you start to label and you start to define your portfolios like that, when it comes up for refinancing or renewal, then actually you do have to think about it. You can't substitute it with whatever assets are going to be the most commercially viable at the time. You will have moved your mindset into one that says, well, actually hang on this as a green activity that we do, or this is a social activity that we do. So whilst a lot of people get excited about it, I actually think it's going to happen. And actually there are positives to it as well because it does help change mindsets amongst management.

Anthony Scaramucci: (19:56)
Got it. I'm going to get John Darsie in here in a second. And just remember before we started Andrew, John said that us as baby boomers destroyed the planet. I just want to make sure you know that it's you and me against him. But before we [crosstalk 00:20:09]

John Darsie: (20:08)
I will confirm those comments.

Anthony Scaramucci: (20:10)
Where is ESG really taking hold and in finance? Is it just in Wall Street or is it very widespread?

Andrew Steel: (20:20)
It's very widespread. It certainly isn't. I think Wall Street tends to react to the challenges that are posed to it. It's good at innovation. It's good at coming up with products to meet needs, but the real push from this has come from a mix, I mean, it depends where you are on the world, but it's coming from a mixture of public opinion, some science around climate change and it's very much been driven by asset owners wanting to start to see what is actually happening with the funds that they're providing for asset managers to invest. And so you've got asset managers, owners and the stakeholders starting to say, well, yeah, I do want a return on my investment, but I want to ensure that I'm not doing harm. So maybe it may be Anthony, you and I can sort of come back at John and say, well, we're helping to drive the change in how funds are applied because we're the ones who are sitting on the cash. It may be people like John and his generation who need to come up with the clever, innovative ideas but.

Anthony Scaramucci: (21:31)
Yeah. You better be careful. We're sitting on the cash. Okay? So you better be careful and respectfully ask these questions Mr. Darsie. Go ahead Mr. Darsie.

John Darsie: (21:41)
All right. Well, I'll do my best despite all the damage you guys have done to the world. I'll leave Andrew out of it because I think he seems like a responsible guy but Anthony with his Lamborghini and his Bentley [crosstalk 00:21:55]

Anthony Scaramucci: (21:55)
Oh my god, here we go. Okay. This guy's living on like a seven acre estate. He has a carbon footprint the size of Belgium. Okay. John Darsie. Okay. So what are you talking about? Go ahead. Go ahead Darsie.

John Darsie: (22:08)
So the E, the S and the G, they're grouped together, but they're very different in a lot of ways and when you look at it from a credit perspective, my understanding is that governance is probably the dominant factor when it comes to credit quality. How important is the G and how are the E and the S becoming more important in analysis and the way people are running their portfolios?

Andrew Steel: (22:35)
So, I mean, I think governance has always been recognized and analyzed in a lot of detail and it's not likely to decrease in importance. The way in which companies are run, the way in which operational practices are implemented, it's always going to be important, it's always going to be integral to the performance of any entity. Now, trying to balance that with achieving environmental social goals is perhaps a lot harder to do. And you were talking earlier about the sort of green washing and the social washing and ultimately it's easy to say what you're going to do when it comes to environmental and social aspects, but actually the hard implementation of that and the measurement of the impact of that is much more difficult to achieve. And if we're being candid about it, we've had a huge amount of statements from both entities and governments around the world about achieving net zero but very little detail about exactly how they're going to do that.

Andrew Steel: (23:44)
And one of reasons why ESG relevant scores, which remember that pure credit component, one of the reasons why those show governance as the most dominant factor impacting credit profiles is because in a lot of sectors and a lot of jurisdictions around the world, environmental issues just don't bite in terms of credit profiles. You're seeing. A good example would be electric utilities in Europe. You do see it biting and you see it biting because of carbon pricing and de-carbonization requirements, requirements to shut down coal fire plants. And that has a clear and obvious impact on credit profiles. Even if you compare Europe with the US, you see much lower impact in the US. You compare the US with Asia, you see even lower impact in a lot of Asian economies. And so a lot of this gets driven by a very complex equation. It gets driven by clarity around the path to net zero or decarbonization targets. If you're an entity in a sector, which is going to decarbonize at some point between now and 2050, if you make your product twice as expensive as the next person 10 years before you're required to do that under whatever pathway the government has determined, there is a strong chance that you'll actually damage your business by doing that.

Andrew Steel: (25:12)
And so it's a very difficult and complex equation and at the moment, I think a lot of politicians have got the issue and I think, I can kind of wax lyrical about this for a long time, but I think the biggest issue is we over-consume. Around the globe, everybody over-consumes. And ultimately the only way that all of this works is that everybody gives up a lot of the things that they take for granted or that they see as luxuries. Things like bread, meat should become much less affordable. Travel will become very elite. And if you think about that from a politician's perspective, if I make the decision to say, well, actually only the very wealthiest people can take a foreign holiday because air fares are gonna increase exponentially, I'm likely to get voted out by the populace.

Andrew Steel: (26:01)
So there's this very difficult balance going on. And there was a lot of rhetoric initially around saying you can have your cake and eat it too. But I think John, probably your generation are maybe starting to recognize a little bit more that that isn't the case. And certainly I see my daughters buying secondhand clothes rather because they'd rather do that to be environmentally friendly than buy newer, cheaper off the shelf stuff from department stores. So it's kind of interesting-

Anthony Scaramucci: (26:34)
Trust me Andrew, John is buying secondhand clothes. Okay. Trust me on that. Okay. Just want to make sure you know. Go ahead Darsie.

Andrew Steel: (26:40)
I didn't like to come in, but.

Anthony Scaramucci: (26:43)
It's obvious. It's obvious.

John Darsie: (26:45)
Well, I mean, as it relates to food, it's certainly a trend that we are invested in ourselves on the asset management side of our business is there's GMO, the idea of genetically modified food is sort of a dirty word, but you have all these companies now that are using programmable biology basically to create different synthetic foods that imitate and meats that provide certain nutrients that you'd get naturally from food and proteins in particular. And there's a lot of companies doing really exciting things in the space that I think are getting increasing attention from ESG minded sovereign wealth funds and other asset owners who are looking for alternatives to... You can only farm so much land on the planet to produce the type of red meat that we need to feed a more affluent population. So it's certainly a fascinating time.

Andrew Steel: (27:32)
And arguably government should be directing more funds towards that type of innovation than towards trying to sustain unsustainable practices. But of course there's huge amount of lobbying and there's a lot of money involved and you see that everywhere around the world. It's not unique to any one particular country. I don't think so.

John Darsie: (27:54)
Yep. It's one way that capitalism, obviously we think is the best system. It's the worst system except for all the rest. But it's the best system, but it also has its flaws as it relates to special interests and the way capital flows. When you talk about longer term climate risks, how do those factor into credit ratings? Is it a factor related to regulation as you were talking about in Europe and other places where there's more restrictions being put on energy producers and things like that? Is greater weight placed on near-term risks or how do you think about sort of the different spectrum of short-term to long-term climate risks and how it affects credit ratings?

Andrew Steel: (28:33)
Sure. I mean, it's a good question and it very much relates as well to unfold back into one that was mentioned earlier about regulation and regulation not only around ESG factors, but regulation of ourselves on our credit ratings business side. I guess the regulated activities on the credit rating side that we perform, they're all subject to back testing, default testing in order to be consistent and accurate over time. And therefore they tend to be based on shorter term forecasts. So typically a credit rating forecast is that sort of three to five years for a corporate and the analysts look at that and they'll track and monitor on a rolling basis. So it'll get reviewed at least annually. And so it's a relatively short horizon in terms of a financial forecast when you're thinking about something like climate change. And again, that's one of the reasons why within the credit ratings, you don't see a huge impact, but accurately predicting the impact of these longer term effects without knowing what the policies are going to be and the timeframe for policy implementation is almost impossible.

Andrew Steel: (29:44)
So what we... But it's a great question and it's one that we had a lot of investors asking us after we produced this credit portion. They said, well, that's fine. That tells us what's within your credit ratings and it is forward-looking, that's nice, but ultimately, should I be still investing in coal bonds in China in five years time or does China look like Europe in five years time? And so what we started to do is we started to do some scenario based analysis because we said, look, in the short term, there are too many different uncertainties to be able to predict what the impact will be now of something that's going to occur in 20 years time. But we can look at the pathways that take us there and we can look at what we think will be the influences based on what we've seen previously and what we understand will be the situation going forward.

Andrew Steel: (30:38)
And so we picked the UNPRI's inevitable policy response scenario. That maybe won't surprise you because if you remember what I was talking about before is that policy action and timeframe from governments very much determines how costs crystallize in different industry sectors when you're actually forced to do something so that you don't get fined or penalized or your product becomes redundant or you don't meet the standards anymore required to sell into a market. And that scenario that we worked on with you, NPR and pivot economics is very much looking at how that occurs in different countries all the way around the world through to 2050. So we took that and we've started developing what we call vulnerability schools, which is looking at five-year time periods from 2025 through to 2050. And for those, marking how the risk exposure to environmental regulation changes over that time and under different sectors.

Andrew Steel: (31:36)
And what you see immediately is you see, for instance, that in places like China and India, where there's heavy reliance on coal for electricity generation, you see that the credit risk profile of entities in those jurisdictions doesn't reach the same level as we currently see in Europe until somewhere around 2035, 2037. And that's actually quite important if you're an investor. Here's what it tells you is that's a market that will transition, but isn't doing it now. It's an earlier stage. You can look at a market that's gone to a later stage and you can think about, okay, maybe I can get a better return from investing in coal and not just excluding it completely. And maybe what I can do is I can actually support the transition because I can [inaudible 00:32:21] terms and conditions around my investment that ensure that that transition part is met or it's locked to certain aspects of it are locked in. And so there's kind of a double opportunity to do good and do well from that.

John Darsie: (32:34)
Right. Could you see a future and how far away is that future we're potentially all bonds or green or sustainable bonds? And is there still going to be a place in the world in 10, 20 years for non green bonds?

Andrew Steel: (32:49)
Yeah. It's an interesting question which are kind of turn around because I think ultimately, you won't need to label things green or sustainable because investors will want to know about those aspects of the risk for everything. And so I kind of view it that we at the moment, we've got a big sort of momentum behind green bonds, blue bonds, social bonds, sustainability linked bonds. And I think that's starting to drive the early stages, but as the integration of ESG analysis becomes more embedded in investment processes, the need to do that will decline, but the requirement to have the information to demonstrate that will increase. And so you may see some green and social bonds in the future, but there'll be very, very specifically targeted instruments and for the majority of the other instruments, what you'll see is not a pricing benefit for labeling yourself green or social, but what you'll see is a liquidity penalty if you're not able to demonstrate your credentials. So fewer and fewer investors over time will want to invest in something where they can't assess that subcategory of risks.

Andrew Steel: (34:05)
And so I kind of agree with your premise, but I think the way it will evolve will be different. I think we'll see a surge in labeling then a fall off in labeling, but the fall off won't be because people aren't interested in the labels, it will be because it's just part of the everyday investment work. So a conventional bond will be expected to have certain characteristics. In terms of timeframe, wow, if I can guess that, I'll be a very rich man. I suspect it's going to take longer than people anticipate. So I think you're looking at, on the integration side, that standardization and harmonization of data is very, very important. I think you're probably looking at at least eight to 10 years from now until we see that becoming much more of the norm.

John Darsie: (34:54)
Right? When you look at industry trends like electric vehicles, obviously Tesla is the poster child for that, but you see a proliferation of electric vehicle manufacturers in China and the US and Europe. Renewable energy, there's obviously a huge focus there. How much is ESG and ESG standards related to credit ratings and investments driving those trends? Is it more of a consumer trend? How do you look at why those trends are so explosive right now? And also how does ESG investment principles feed into sort of the commodity super cycle? Do they stimulate it? Do they deter that market? How do you look at that?

Andrew Steel: (35:34)
Sure. We definitely look at, and we've produced research on things like the cost of decarbonizing sectors such as, or manufacturing processes such as steel, cement, fertilizers. And we've looked at what that means for companies in those sectors and also companies in different countries. So for instance, when we look at something like steel, you see that the US has a much higher proportion of arc furnaces for steel already, which are largely electric based. And that actually puts them in a much better cost position for de-carbonization going forward because the cost of changing the manufacturing process is far less. And so we do a lot of work around that and we think about how that impacts commodity pricing. We work with an entity called CIU very closely. We have a partnership with them where we look at commodity impacts over time. So we do spend a lot of time thinking about that. Can you just remind me the first part of your question? Sorry.

John Darsie: (36:39)
Yeah. Just about how much ESG factors related to investment decisions is driving this proliferation of electric vehicle companies and renewable energy companies that are seeing just massive waves of investment. Again, Tesla [crosstalk 00:36:56]

Andrew Steel: (36:56)
I mean, it's interesting. I think a lot of that gets driven by politics and political statements and that undoubtedly results in what you're talking about, which is a rush to invest in this stuff. It's seen as being up coming. You kind of need to get on the bandwagon to be in there towards the beginning. A lot of people connect to some of the sort of tech bubble that occurred where some aspects of the tech bubble back in the late 1990s proved to be very lucrative and very good as investments, but an awful lot of them really didn't perform well over the long term, but everybody felt they needed to invest in it at the time. There is a danger we go that way. And I think your example of electric vehicles is a really good one, because there's a huge amount of momentum for changing vehicle fleets in countries to all electric, but the infrastructure is just not there to support it and it really won't be there for quite a long time. And you're talking about a massive infrastructure spend for people to be able to travel in a similar way to how they travel with combustion engines.

Andrew Steel: (38:11)
And if you start to think about the logistics of that, then actually, if you can solve the hydrogen production cost, then the infrastructure that exists already is very easily adaptable to compress hydrogen. And so you would think spending a lot more money on hydrogen fuel cell development where the only byproduct is water, where you can refuel quickly is likely to be a much bigger long-term benefit. But of course, if you're a politician, you can't show short-term gains. You can't say, oh, we've, we've banned electric vehicle or we've banned combustion engine vehicles by 2030. I mean, that's all very well, but if you've no charging infrastructure and in the UK where we've got tiny proportion of electric vehicles and we're already seeing a lot of people experiencing problems in not being able to charge their vehicles or failing to get to their destination, because the weather is cold than they expected and so the battery range is lower. So there's lots and lots of problems. And I think it's unfortunate. It is progress, but again, it's not a long-term strategically thought-out plan and that really is where we need to spend more time. Certainly we will be at COP26 this year in November in Glasgow in the UK and we'll very much be pushing for people to think more strategically and long-term about this stuff.

John Darsie: (39:39)
All right. Amen. The last question I want to ask you is sort of a meta question around ESG. There's a lot of people that are very enthusiastic about ESG. There's a lot of people that shake their head and say that it's just executives paying lip service because it's something they have to talk about now because of pressure from asset owners. How much are we really building towards something that's going to have an impact on the planet, that's going to have an impact on the social situation in various countries around the world? And to what extent do you think true ESG investment principles are going to dictate who gets money in 2021, 2022, 2023 and who doesn't get the money?

Andrew Steel: (40:21)
Yeah, I think there's already some evidence to show that it is affecting the flow of funds. The slightly unfortunate thing is there still a surplus liquidity globally, despite going through the financial crisis. And so if you look at, we saw a great example a couple of years ago where a lot of traditional bank lenders were pulling out of lending to coal projects in Australia. And I think they thought this is going to make a difference. Kind of help to force a transition. And all that happened was a range of Asian and mainly Chinese bank stepped in to do the lending instead. And so, it's going to be difficult. There are going to be problems and issues along the way.

Andrew Steel: (41:11)
Unfortunately, and I suspect this may be what you're angling towards with this John is that we seem to still be at an early stage of exerting any real sort of influence and to still be at an early stage after what is now several years of talk to bait, target setting, lots of grandstanding and still not seeing much in terms of carbon reduction overall or nothing like the pathways that were being talked about 5, 10 years ago, really isn't good news. And what it means is that problem is being stored up and the timeframe to solve it in is starting to shrink. And from a credit perspective, this is our biggest single concern over the long run is we think that the less action that's taken now, the more extreme action needs to be taken in a shorter timeframe. And companies generally, and institutions, are good at adapting to change that's flagged in advance because they can work out that position, they can work out the impact, they know when that's going to happen.

Andrew Steel: (42:22)
But as that timeframe shrinks and the action that needs to be taking grows in severity, it becomes much harder and you're going to get a lot more shocks that occur if that happens. And from a credit perspective, that's bad news because companies struggle to react to big changes in short timeframes. We've seen a little bit of that with things like sugar tax in position in Europe to do with carbonated soft drinks, for instance, after a public outcry obesity. But that sort of thing I think is just the beginning of it. So I would like to be able to say yes, it's making a huge impact to make a really big difference. I think it's started. It's helping to change mindsets, but the practical reality is there is some change, but nothing like what needs to be done to meet these agendas that have been put out there.

John Darsie: (43:12)
We have a friend named Ketan Patel. He works at a firm called Greater Pacific Capital in London. He's working with the UN on a project called capital as a force for good where they're studying the volume of investment that's going to need to go green and go into these sort of UN sustainable development goals to really achieve the outcomes that we need. And that's numbers in the tens of trillions at this point. So hopefully people like yourself who are educating people around the realities of ESG can be a part of that and we're hopeful. But Andrew, it's been a pleasure to have you on. We hope to see you sometime in person when we're able to get back over to London or when you're able to get over here back to see your team in New York. But thanks so much for joining us.

Andrew Steel: (43:57)
Thanks John. Thanks Anthony.

Anthony Scaramucci: (44:00)
Super insightful stuff Andrew. Thank you again.

John Darsie: (44:04)
And thank you everybody for tuning into today's SALT Talk with Andrew Steel of Fitch. Again, please spread the word about these types of SALT Talks. We think these are really important ambitious goals that we need to get the planet and to get the global society where we want it. But we think education around these topics will help us get there. So please spread the word. Now, just a reminder, if you missed any part of this talk or any of our previous SALT talks, you can access them on our website on demand at salt.org/talks or on our YouTube channel, which is called SALTTube. We're also on social media. Twitter is where we're most active @SALTConference, but we're also on LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook as well. And on behalf of Anthony and the entire SALT team, this is John Darsie, signing off from SALT Talks for today. We hope to see you back here again soon.

Kevin Carter: Emerging Market ETFs | SALT Talks #247

“[In emerging markets,] smartphones bring a computer to the world for the first time and the Internet with it. That’s a very, very important part of what I think is the fastest growing sector in the world.”

Kevin Carter is the Founder & Chief Investment Officer of EMQQ. In this episode, Kevin shares is introduction to emerging markets where he’s a leader in the space. He analyzes the exposure to Chinese state-owned companies within ETFs and potential risks. He explains the unique advantages emerging markets enjoy due to the lack of legacy tech infrastructure seen in more advanced countries like the United States. Carter offers his investment outlook in India and Latin America, and lays out his approach to measuring a company’s growth.

While he considers himself an active “value” investor first and foremost, he has collaborated with Princeton economist and indexing legend, Dr. Burton Malkiel, for more than 20 years. Their work together began in 1999 with the development of eInvesting, a pioneer firm in fractional share brokerage that was acquired by ETRADE in 2000. In 2002 they founded Active Index Advisors, a pioneer in so-called “direct indexing” that was acquired by Natixis Asset Management in 2005. In 2006, their efforts turned to China and Emerging Markets with Dr. Malkiel’s publishing of “Investment Strategies to Exploit Economic Growth in China” and the subsequent book From Wall Street to the Great Wall. Working with Guggenheim Partners, they launched several China focused ETFs on the NYSE.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

MODERATOR

SPEAKER

Kevin Carter.jpg

Kevin Carter

Founder & Chief Investment Officer

EMQQ

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 - Intro and background

5:45 - Emerging markets

7:48 - Advice to young investors

10:27 - Exposure to emerging markets through US companies

12:52 - State-owned companies in ETF’s

17:00 - Smartphones in emerging markets

20:25 - Technological leapfrogging in emerging markets

23:20 - Super apps

28:26 - Chinese government crackdowns and investor concerns

42:15 - Investing in India

44:48 - Investing in Latin America

48:12 - Measuring growth

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie: (00:07)
Hello everyone, and welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is John Darsie. I'm the managing director of SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance, technology and public policy. SALT Talks are a digital interview series that we started in 2020 with leading investors, creators and thinkers. And our goal on these talks is the same as our goal at our SALT conferences, which we're excited to resume this fall in our home city of New York, but that's to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And we're very excited today to welcome Kevin T. Carter to SALT Talks.

John Darsie: (00:48)
Kevin is the founder and chief investment officer of EMQQ, which is a leading emerging market ETF. While he considers himself an active value investor, first and foremost, he has collaborated with Princeton economist and indexing legend, Dr. Burton Malkiel for more than 20 years. I know Dr. Malkiel is also a big influence on Anthony with his great book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Their work together began in 1999 with the development of E-Investing, a pioneer firm in fractional share brokerage that was acquired by E-Trade in the year 2000. In 2002, they founded Active Index Advisors, a pioneer in so-called direct indexing, which is a trend that has taken over the wealth management world in the subsequent two decades. And that was acquired by Natixis Asset Management in 2005.

John Darsie: (01:35)
In 2006, their efforts turned to China and emerging markets with Dr. Malkiel's publishing of Investment Strategies to Exploit Economic Growth in China and the subsequent book, From Wall Street to the Great Wall. Working with Guggenheim Partners, they launched several China focused ETFs on the New York stock exchange. Kevin launched EMQQ in 2014 after noticing how the advent of the smartphone was changing his personal consumption habits and thus his projections on how it was going to change consumer behavior in emerging markets. He now lives in Lafayette, California with his wife and three lovely children. Hosting today's talk is Anthony Scaramucci, who is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, which is a global alternative investment firm. Anthony is also the chairman of SALT. And with that, I'll turn it over to Anthony for the interview.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:22)
Well, Kevin, first off, I want to thank you for getting the memo and dressing appropriately for this event. Unlike John Darsie that's trying to outshine us with his stupid sports jacket on, so thank you for that. I want to jump right into Burton Malkiel, Dean Malkiel, and I'll just tell you a quick story, which I think I have shared with John. I was about to be interviewed by the Goldman people. I'm at the Harvard Business School. I crossed the river. I was a Harvard Law School graduate, but I'm over at the business school, and somebody handed me a Dr. Malkiel's book. This is 1987, A Random Walk on Wall Street. I read the entire book waiting in the waiting room prior to the interview, and I'm absolutely confident that it helped me get through that interview and get me my first job. So tell us about his influence and Warren Buffett's influence on you.

Kevin T. Carter: (03:15)
Okay. Well, I didn't know the details of your experience with that book, but I did know there was some overlap. So, I graduated from college in 1991. And in January of 1992, I had my first interview with a firm called Robertson and Stephens Company, which you may remember, which my interview lasted about 20 minutes. And the first 19 minutes we talked about college basketball and then I got a one-minute overview of the investment business. And then the guy that was interviewing me said, "You can start Monday." And I said, "Well, how can I possibly start Monday? I don't know anything about investing." And he said, "Well, go buy this book and read it over the weekend." And he wrote down, A Random Walk Down Wall Street on a piece of paper.

Kevin T. Carter: (04:11)
I went to the bookstore and bought it and read it and showed up to work on Monday. And as you know, it's a book that's all about efficient markets and indexing, and one of the Seminole pieces in the modern investing world and Burt, the author is a longtime Vanguard board member and one of the founding fathers of indexing, but I very quickly gravitated towards Omaha and began to read all the Berkshire Hathaway annual reports and anything I could read that Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger had said.

Kevin T. Carter: (04:49)
So that's, I pray towards Omaha but in 1998, I met Burton over the telephone during the dot com bubble. And a year later when I started my first company, I asked if he would be an advisor. And he agreed after I flew out to Princeton for a three-hour lunch with him. And so we've been business partners in one way, shape or form since 1999, and so I've got one foot in the active world and one foot in the indexing world, and along the way, Burton dragged me into China and emerging markets more broadly.

Anthony Scaramucci: (05:27)
I would say it's an amazing story, congratulations, you're leading in emerging market ETF EMQQ. So tell us about that, what constitutes an emerging market, and what's the difference in groups like MSCI and the FTSE?

Kevin T. Carter: (05:44)
Sure. Well, when we talk about emerging markets, foundationally and fundamentally, we're really talking about the world. It's 85% of the world's people. It's about 90% of the world's future as measured by younger people under the age of 30. And it starts with China, but it's, if you include frontier markets, which are the junior emerging markets, it's about 50 different countries with China being the largest in pretty much every measure, India, Brazil, Russia, and then the frontier markets are things like Nigeria and other parts of Africa and South America. So that's what we're talking about.

Kevin T. Carter: (06:34)
There's no official list of what an emerging market is. MSCI really created the category. It used to be called third world countries, but in a stroke of genius by the marketing people, they've renamed third world countries, emerging markets. And MSCI did that. And so their list is really the default standard. But there are some discrepancies in the indexing world. The FTSE people which have their own index and Vanguard tracks, they don't have the exact same list, so the biggest difference there is Korea, which FTSE considers developed and MSCI does not. So if you own the iShares version of emerging markets, you own Korea, and if you own the Vanguard version you don't, which is a meaningful difference, but not huge.

Anthony Scaramucci: (07:27)
If you were starting out today, with all the knowledge that you have of the world of investing, would you be where you are right now? And what would you recommend to a student embarking upon his career? A 100 ETFs, indexes, active indexes, what would your messaging be?

Kevin T. Carter: (07:49)
Okay, that's a great question and one I think about quite a bit, because I have a relatively young team of colleagues. And in thinking about their 401k plan, for example, I'm forced to think about that exact question. And I think that first and foremost, the miracle of compounding is the most important part of this whole thing. And whether it's buying the index or buying individual stocks, you got to buy and hold, and buy and hold, and buy and hold and repeat that. And that would be the first thing I would say.

Kevin T. Carter: (08:32)
And then for those that are industrious and want to try to figure out how to pick the best stocks to be active, I would have them study moats and what a moat is in the business palettes in the Buffet and Munger terminology, and then I'd tell them to learn about valuation. And the PEG ratio to me is the most important thing to look at if you're evaluating buying equity in a company. So moats, the PEG ratio and the miracle of compounding, I think, are the things I would suggest they study. And I think they should also study, I suppose, Bill Sharpe's piece, The Arithmetic of Active Investing, which most concisely details the mathematical fact that the Vanguard index fund is going to continue to beat all of the other actively managed versions of investing by simple basis of lower fees.

Anthony Scaramucci: (09:51)
Fee savings is a big issue for Dean Malkiel, big issue for Mr. Buffet. One of the things Mr. Buffet has said, often, I want you to react to this, is that he's gotten his international exposure through American-based companies as a result of their gap accounting and him being able to understand that you guys seem to have for rate off the course of America, what would you say to this xenophobic American centric investors as to why they need to be in products like yours?

Kevin T. Carter: (10:26)
Well, first of all, absolutely you can get exposure to emerging markets and China through US companies. In fact, one of the first China strategies that Burt and I organized was sort of, we lift it from Abby Cohen, which was, we called it China for chickens. So if you didn't feel comfortable buying Chinese equities, you'd buy companies like Yum! Brands, which while based in Kentucky, had the vast majority of its revenue coming from China. So you can absolutely get that sort of indirect exposure.

Kevin T. Carter: (11:07)
The reality is that, for the last decade plus investors that have diversified internationally, either into international developed markets, the IFA countries, Europe, Australia, Japan, Canada, et cetera, they've underperformed the S&P. And investors in emerging markets have done terrible over the last a decade or even the 14-year return for the MSCI emerging markets index is zero. And you just got back to zero, you were underwater for almost all of those 14 years. So people have been disappointed by investing in emerging markets in particular. And I understand why, because the indexes are terrible. They don't really capture the growth in emerging markets.

Kevin T. Carter: (11:52)
So I think investors should, and can't find returns internationally, but they have to get a little bit more targeted in their approach. And in emerging markets, it's pretty clear to me that that's in the category of consumption. You want exposure to the growth of the consumer in emerging markets. And what we've put together is, is what I think is the tip of the spear of that growth, which is the smartphone enabled emerging market consumer that is getting access to the internet for the first time, getting their first computer in form of an Android-based smartphone. And in many ways, these people are even more digital than we are.

Anthony Scaramucci: (12:34)
Yeah. And it begs the question then about China and the state-owned enterprises in China, a lot of the ETFs of the indexes, et cetera, represent some of that. What's your opinion about allocating to state-owned enterprises?

Kevin T. Carter: (12:52)
Well, I think it's a horrible idea, and this is why indexing is broken in emerging markets. And I tell people that the way I got involved with China 16 years ago, or 50 years ago, was when my partner Burt was asked to give a talk at Google about investing in China. I had become a default investment advisor to several of the earliest Google people right after they went public in 2004, and Burt published a paper about investing in China, and the Google people found out about it and called me and said, "Hey, can Burt come talk about investing in China?" And I organized that to happen. And Burton gave his talk about investing in China. And then all these people at Google looked at me and said, "We want to invest in China." And at that point, I had never been to China. I read Burton's paper, but I didn't really know what that even meant to invest in China.

Kevin T. Carter: (13:51)
And after that talk, we drove back to San Francisco and I asked our portfolio managers for a list of all the companies in the China ETF from my shares, because I assumed these Google people, to give them exposure to China, we would just buy the ETF. And I wanted to see what was inside of it because, with my Omaha brand, I like to see not just what the title of the ETF is, but what are the actual companies? And before they gave me the list, Burton pulled me aside and he said, "Look, when you look at the China ETF, you're going to see that the vast majority of the companies are Chinese state-owned enterprises and government-owned banks and oil companies."

Kevin T. Carter: (14:32)
And I said, "Yeah, I've heard about this," and a little skeptically, and he went on to give me an example. And the example was, you've got a Chinese manufacturing plant with 15,000 employees that's woefully inefficient, and it's been losing money for a decade, and it's about to run out of money again. And it goes across town to the Chinese-state owned bank and says, "We need more money." And where a normal banker would say, "No, you can't have any more money, you're bankrupt." The state-owned bank is conflicted and says, "Well, if you run out of money, then you'll have 15,000 people out in the streets protesting, and we can't have that sort of civil unrest."

Kevin T. Carter: (15:10)
And when Burt gave me that example, I literally got nauseous inside because with my simple Omaha brain, what gives companies value is earnings, and it's the growth of those earnings that is the growth of the value. And if the people that run those companies don't care about that, why would you invest in them at all? And so this was something I encountered in the first five minutes, and it's just become more and more clear in the case of China and the FXI, which is the ticker for that product, it was about 80% state-owned enterprises. And in the broader indexes, it's about a third, and this is why you can't expect to make any money in the broad indexes, because these companies are, in addition to being inefficient, their management is terrible. And there's lots of corruption, and you've got people going to jail, like the last two presidents of Brazil, the former president, a pariah, went to jail for corruption. So state-owned enterprises are a real big problem and they're the reason you should absolutely not use traditional approaches to emerging markets.

Anthony Scaramucci: (16:23)
Right. I love the sentiment. I totally agree with you on all of that. And I've seen you make these presentations before, which I think are very important, particularly for the young people, Kevin. Let's go to the iPhone for a second. It comes out just before the Barack Obama administration, let's call it a 13 or 14 years old. I still see it as an emerging technology, but it transformed your way of thinking about investing. Tell us about how it did that? And how is smartphone penetration in emerging markets affecting consumer behavior?

Kevin T. Carter: (16:59)
Well, I think you're absolutely right. The smartphone is a pretty new thing, and I think we already take it for granted. But I remember my first encounter with an iPhone, one of my friends who was the first guy to get new stuff, had an iPhone, and he showed it to me and talked about apps. And I remember thinking, "Wow, an app." It was an abstract idea to me, what exactly is an app? And I wasn't sure I'd ever actually be involved with apps. And that was 11 or so years ago.

Kevin T. Carter: (17:33)
But when I got my first smartphone, my iPhone, I saw how it was changing my family's consumption. And back then, my family was going to the Target store four times a week, which is only a few miles away and easy to get to, but all of a sudden the trips to the Target store started going down, and the UPS man was starting to come to my house a couple of times a week. And that just intensified very quickly. And pretty soon my family had stopped going to the Target store and the UPS driver and other drivers were at my house 20 times a week. So I saw, eight or nine years ago, how the smartphone was changing my family's consumption.

Kevin T. Carter: (18:17)
And we all know this. This isn't really a secret, and you've also seen it in the stock market, is the FANG stocks, the Big Tech stocks, the platform companies have taken over the world basically. And I saw that happening in my own life. And as somebody that was trying to capture the growth of the emerging market consumer, I started to see how it was playing out in the emerging markets. And I could see that it was even a bigger deal in emerging markets because these people, they weren't getting their first smartphone, they were getting their first computer ever, and it wasn't on their desk, it was in their pocket. And most of them aren't iPhones. They don't have an Apple logo because we're talking about 50, 60, $80 android-based smartphones that are bringing the computer the world for the first time and also bringing the internet with it for the first time. So that's a very, very important, part of what I think is the fastest growing sector in the world.

Anthony Scaramucci: (19:17)
The reason I'm hesitating here is I want to frame this question appropriately. Larry Summers said it to me best. He said that sometimes advanced country is hurt by their advancement. Meaning we built our airports in the 1920s. And then we layered upon those airports more infrastructure and airports, but our airports look like third world countries now here in the United States. And yet there are airports in Dubai and places like China that are pristine and brand new.

Anthony Scaramucci: (19:49)
Moreover, we started with copper wire in the ground or on telephone poles, and yet you can go to places in China now where they don't have any of that. It's just full wireless technology at 5G switch speeds and rates. And so I want to ask you this question as an experienced investor, how disadvantaged are countries that are developed versus countries that are able to start new with the technologies that we have in the present time?

Kevin T. Carter: (20:25)
Well, this is a very good and important point, and I have to try to think about it in real time about the advantages or disadvantages. But there's no doubt that, I guess, the main advantage is you have new stuff and you have state-of-the-art stuff. And certainly that involves infrastructure like airports, and in the case of China, high-speed rail network that's very, very important to that country's economic growth that connect the, well over a billion people physically via high-speed rail. So it's a big advantage. And it's an advantage, I think, for investors. And that we've seen very clearly what's happened in our lives and in our stock market with the FANG stocks, but in the developing world and emerging and frontier markets, they're leapfrogging lots of things. They're leapfrogging the bank account and the debit card in everybody's pocket, they're leapfrogging the physical wires and getting connected via mobile broadband without the telephone poles.

Kevin T. Carter: (21:38)
So that's a big advantage and it's what makes the emerging market internet companies, I think, even more exciting because they're not competing with the strip malls, they're not competing with, well, they're competing with the traditional banks, but they're winning quite handily. And it's sort of a paradox. You would think people like you and I, that are in a prosperous country and in a prosperous industry, and I'm right here in the heart, basically of Silicon valley, I should be on the cutting edge of things like mobile banking, but it's not us. It's Africa paradoxically that is the most advanced in terms of mobile payments. So it's an advantage for the consumers and the consumption story as they leapfrog some of the legacy consumption infrastructure that we take for granted.

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:34)
Very well said. I'm going to turn it over to John in a second, because he did put the sports code on Kevin, and so, as a result of which I've got to allow him to ask some of these questions. But I want to go to the mobile super apps for a second. They exist in several jurisdictions and they cover everything from e-commerce to payments, to entertainment and social networking. What are some of your favorite super app investments? And then we'll let Mr. Darsie, but just do me a favor, when Darsie is asking questions, don't say great question or anything like that, okay? Let's go to the super apps first and then we'll go to Darsie.

Kevin T. Carter: (23:10)
Your questions are a bit good, but I sure John's will be superior, he's got the coat. He's got the coat.

Anthony Scaramucci: (23:17)
Oh my God. It hurts me, Kevin.

Kevin T. Carter: (23:20)
So, the two biggest super apps in the world are basically Alibaba and Tencent, WeChat platform. Everybody knows Alibaba, and people I don't think quite realize that in these two companies, these aren't really technology companies. They've been put in the technology box, but they're consumer companies and they're digitizing all parts of consumption. And so, that's e-commerce, that's the social networks, but it's also healthcare, it's entertainment, it's food. Alibaba's Hema market is the most amazing thing I've ever seen in China. And so these super apps are a really big deal. And we don't really have anything like them here. And we've always told people the way to think about Tencent is that it's the Facebook of China. That's true. WeChat is the social network, and it's how I talk to my Chinese friends and colleagues, but you can't call Facebook the Tencent of anything because these companies don't really have a US equivalent.

Kevin T. Carter: (24:31)
And you're seeing that spread. There's a lot of super apps now. And again, these are apps that combine lots of different things that we get from discreet, separate apps, but Southeast Asia is where a lot of these super apps are coming together. Sea Limited which trades in the US on the NYC with the ticker SE, is probably the one that's done the best. I think it might be the single best performing stock in the world over the last several years. But this is as a Singapore-listed company or based company operating all over Southeast Asia. And it's a mashup of gaming, of e-commerce and payments. And the FinTech sub story in emerging markets e-commerce is the most powerful as all these people skip the bank account. And it starts with payments. And once you get the money on the phone, then you can get into all sorts of financial services, including investment products, including insurance, and including banking and credit products.

Kevin T. Carter: (25:35)
And because things like Sea Limited sprouted with their gaming business in a place where people didn't have bank accounts, they end up creating their own payments platform, and it becomes the payments platform for these people's entire lives. So Sea Limited is one example. Also in Southeast Asia, you have a fascinating company that's called GoTo, which is a merger of the Indonesian Uber, Gojek and the Indonesian Amazon, Tokopedia. So these two companies, Gojek and Tokopedia are merging, and so you've got the Uber plus the Amazon plus the PayPal, all in one single app. And that's another example.

Kevin T. Carter: (26:24)
And you've got, all over the world, these stories happening. And I was, one of the best examples is last year when the super app of Kazakhstan, COSBY, went public in London. So the smartphone story is happening all over the world. But again, because these people in these markets lack the traditional consumption infrastructure, you're seeing these super apps come together, and it almost always involves some form of a payments application and FinTech.

Anthony Scaramucci: (26:58)
John Darsie, with your beautiful sports jacket, go ahead.

John Darsie: (27:02)
Thank you very much. I want to talk about China for a second, Kevin, because I think you have an incredibly deep understanding and nuanced understanding of what's taking place in China. Obviously recently, the headlines have been around China's crack down on their own technology sector, on Alibaba and Jack ma and Ant Group on Tencent, on DiDi, which went public with their listing, despite warnings from China about issues related to data. But Ray Dalio, somebody who I think also has probably a more nuanced and deeper understanding of China than anybody else out there in the marketplace, and he wrote a great piece recently about how, if you truly understand the way China thinks about capitalism and the way they're running their domestic economy, then you can actually understand the pattern of behavior in terms of how they are pushing tech companies in different directions.

John Darsie: (27:52)
So, on one hand, certain people think, "Wow, China, all these crackdowns, they've taken on Chinese tech companies makes it impossible to invest in China with any expectation of what they're going to do with the next great tech company that comes along." But if you really understand the way they operate, maybe you can glean some patterns from their behavior. Could you explain to people who are less familiar with China's thinking, just about why they've made these decisions with the Tencents, the Alibabas of the world, with DiDi, and the way that can inform your investment decisions going forward as it relates to China?

Kevin T. Carter: (28:25)
Sure. Well, I follow Ray's thoughts on China closely. And I'd like to think he's right, because I think they're much more eloquently expressed version of how I feel about this. And I guess, importantly, one thing that I've experienced over the last 16 years focused on China, is that people in the United States, investors that I talk to, have this fear that they've had from the beginning, [inaudible 00:28:59] China time, that the Chinese government is somehow going to essentially steal their money or otherwise cause them to lose whatever they've invested in Chinese companies. And some people have a more detailed fear about the VIE structure, and whether or not that could be canceled, but it's just a general fear, that somehow the Chinese government's going to make me lose all my money because they're communist and they can do that. They can take over Alibaba, they can take over Tencent, and Xi Jinping can make himself the CEO and steal all the money.

Kevin T. Carter: (29:35)
And that fear has been part of my life for 16 years. And I think it's totally unfounded. I think the Chinese government understands capitalism. They've done it and experienced it for the last 30 years to their great benefit. They've benefited from capitalism more than anybody else in the world, probably, for the last 30 years. And, and they're smart people, and many of their leaders went to our best colleges, and some of them taught at our best colleges, and I think they understand that.

Kevin T. Carter: (30:09)
And I think that's, when I listened to Charlie Munger or Ray, talk about this, that's the one thing that I think sort of the commonality, that these people aren't out to steal all your money. Now, they do have to regulate, and this is not a China issue, this is a global issue of governments grappling with big technology. And it's on the front page of our newspapers pretty much every week. And last month you had the CEO of Apple, in a courtroom, six miles over my shoulder defending potential monopoly practices. You've got Google seemingly under assault from everybody and paying fines left and right of hundreds of millions and billions of dollars.

Kevin T. Carter: (30:55)
So all over the world, governments are battling to regulate technology for the benefit of their people and to make sure laws are being enforced. And that's the same thing that's happening in China. But China has one I think important difference, which I think is an advantage, but unfortunately it leads to people in the United States, investors in the United States looking at it as, "Oh, my gosh, my worst fears are coming true. The Chinese government is going to steal all my money and make my stock worthless."

Kevin T. Carter: (31:28)
And that advantage is speed. And if you look at the way they handled the antitrust issues and the FinTech rules at Alibaba, I think they did the right thing. And I think they had to do what they did. And it wasn't surprising particularly on the anti-monopoly issues because Alibaba and Tencent have blatantly done things that are anti-competitive. And you have to put this in perspective though. We've had antitrust laws in the United States for 120 years, and they've been refined a few times along the way, but China's had them for 13 years and Alibaba and Tencent were well into their lives and operating before they even had regulations.

Kevin T. Carter: (32:13)
So I think, those first two, because really in this series of the crackdown on the Chinese tech companies, it started in November with the Ant Group IPO pull, and the subsequent week they announced the anti-monopoly issues. And both of those issues got basically dealt with in April. And there's some follow-up and some fines they'll get paid and some rules changed, but the speed with which they were able to address both the FinTech rules and the banking part of that in particular, with Alibaba and antitrust rules, they did that in five months. They basically pulled the emergency brake, and did their repairs, and then push the start button and off they went. And in the United States that would have taken years, and had lobbying, and special interest groups, and hearings. And so I think that the first two parts of the regulatory story I thought was good. And actually to me showed some of the advantages they have.

Kevin T. Carter: (33:16)
What happened in July was sort of a debacle and China has got egg on its face. The regulators do just as the DiDi management does and the investment bankers that took them public. And I think that the biggest and most jarring part of the July happenings was when they basically pushed the nuclear button and the turn, or said that the for-profit education-

John Darsie: (33:45)
They deleted it from the app store.

Kevin T. Carter: (33:47)
Well, they pulled DiDi from the app store, that wasn't so troubling, but the canceling of the for-profit education sector, that was the first time in 16 years, that this fear that people had, that China's going to steal my money or otherwise I'm going to lose the value of my equity because of the Chinese government, it happened and, or at least the closest thing to it happened with New Oriental and the education companies. And so the panic that followed was not surprising to me, but I think all of it and all of the fear is way overdone at this point.

John Darsie: (34:27)
Why did they make that decision related to for-profit education, and there are other sectors or areas that you can learn from that decision that they made to avoid those types of situations in the future?

Kevin T. Carter: (34:39)
Well, the reason they addressed it is because it was a real problem, and the people, it was a pain point for the people of China. The Chinese government serves the people of China and there are so many problems with what was going on there with a for-profit education. And just the Chinese culture has revered education for thousands of years, going back to the time of Confucius. And there's a reason why our top universities are heavily populated by Chinese students, that have gotten very good grades and test scores. It's because they study and they study in a competitive way basically. And you've got 75% of the Chinese school children are doing school after they get home from school, and doing school on the weekends, and extra tutoring, and it's expensive. And again, we have a student debt problem here, and China's people were taking on debt to fund this education on top of education.

Kevin T. Carter: (35:48)
And one of the things that demographically that is important to understand about the school-aged children in China today, is there's an incredible amount of pressure that's multi-generational on them, because these children, they have four grandparents, two sets, they have two parents, and then they're the hope of the future and the embodiment of all of the dreams of all of these six people above them from the two previous generations. And how they do on the college exam, the Gaokao, it's their whole lives. And they spend years plotting it, and planning for it, and testing, and studying. And then they take that test, and then their lives largely will be shaped by how well they do, and do they get into college?

Kevin T. Carter: (36:41)
And it's become unhealthy, and it's become, with the Chinese citizen, a very significant pain point. And that pain boiled over last year, when there was a woman in Shandan who took the test 16 years ago. And she was actually one of two children in her family, but her parents, people don't always understand that in China, you can have two children, even during the one child policy, but only one of them can go to school and get other social services. And this particular woman was the child of farmers. And she had an older brother, but they had decided that did she ought to get the education because she was more academically inclined. And so four years, her parents and grandparents supported her education. And she sat for the exam 16 years ago, hoping to go to Shandan Tech. And she took the test and waited for the results. And back then, if you were accepted at the university, you got an acceptance letter, but if you failed the test and didn't get accepted, you didn't get a rejection letter. And she waited for her letter.

Kevin T. Carter: (37:54)
And through the summer, it never came and dejected. In the fall, she left and as a disappointment to her whole clan and went to the city and became a waitress. And 16 years later, she decided she should get some adult education at the functional equivalent of a community college in which she went to register, and they said, "Well, you've already graduated from Shandan Tech 12 years ago." And she said, no, I didn't. And they said, "Yes, you did. You're right here in the computer." And it turned out that she had in fact been accepted, but that somebody with more money had stolen her identity and stolen her acceptance letter at the post office. And she was one of hundreds of children whose lives had been basically stolen from them by people with more money. And that was a big problem. This particular episode, really highlighted what was wrong.

Kevin T. Carter: (38:51)
And this shouldn't have been too big, a surprise. She himself in March talked about the problems in this online education, private tutoring business. So I was surprised that they pushed the button and made them non-profit at least for the core curriculum. And I understand why that embodied everybody's worst fears about China. And that's why we had the market activity, we had a couple weeks ago on Tuesday when everybody was running around with their hair on fire. So I understand the fear.

Kevin T. Carter: (39:25)
In terms of damage, we have 0.05% exposure to the online education business. So it crushed the price, but the fundamentals were largely unaffected by really any of these regulatory issues.

John Darsie: (39:42)
So when it comes to China, obviously in financial markets, you have to pay for growth, something we'll talk about in a second, but these macro worries from people with a less nuanced understanding of why China's doing the things they're doing within their tech sector have made valuation certainly cheaper. Is there some type of max pain signal that you're looking at in China to potentially ramp up incremental allocations to Chinese companies?

Kevin T. Carter: (40:09)
Well, we buy and hold all of the emerging market internet companies, and that happens to be heavily weighted towards China. And in terms of the max fear point, the max pain point, I'm not sure when that will be, but I think it may have been Tuesday of the week before last, when I had never, in my 28 years, other than the Lehman period, which was a problem for the whole world in the real economy, I had never seen as much fear as I did on, I think, July 27th. And it was the morning after, the day after Stephen Roach had said he was concerned as a long time bull, he was even worried about China. And people were running around with their hair on fire.

Kevin T. Carter: (40:59)
And even before I read A Random Walk Down Wall Street, people told me, buy fear and sell greed. And I had never seen as much fear as I did that last week of July. And it could get worse, I suppose, maybe Xi Jinping really does want to steal the internet and maybe Jack Ma is missing, but I don't think that's true. And so I think you're supposed to buy fear and we still haven't, maybe it'll get more intense. But the 27th of July felt like the most intense fear I've ever felt, not myself, but around me.

John Darsie: (41:38)
Yeah, exactly. I want to go away from China and a little bit around the world. India is a country that fairly soon, it'll overtake China in terms of the leader in global population, but it doesn't get nearly as much fanfare. It doesn't have nearly the weight, in your ETF, for example, as China does. But there are some very exciting companies in India, both private that are in the IPO Pipeline and public companies now. What's the investment climate today in India? What's the pace of innovation? And what are some Indian companies that you're most excited about investing in?

Kevin T. Carter: (42:15)
Sure. Well, just to put it in perspective, we invest in all emerging and frontier markets. China is, in every way, the most advanced economy in the world digitally, and its e-commerce market is more than half of the Globe's e-commerce market. And that's why it's the largest weight in our offering. And if you look at it, the Chinese e-commerce market is four times as large as every other emerging markets internet market combined. So it is well above everything else.

Kevin T. Carter: (42:53)
Now, the next frontier of the emerging markets internet space is India. Certainly the largest part of that. And that's where the growth opportunity is the greatest. And they're coming, but it'll never catch China. China is so far ahead that certainly not in my lifetime will India catch China, but the growth rate there will be the highest. And there's a huge pipeline of Indian IPO's and they're coming fast. We had Zomato, the food delivery app come public last week. We've got Paytm, which is the Berkshire Hathaway backs FinTech leader in India getting ready to come public. We've got Flipkart, which Walmart controls. That's the largest e-commerce company in India. It will come public. And then perhaps next year we'll have Reliance Industries IPO, their geo digital super app business, which I think, if I was going to bet, that will be the dominant super app in India.

Kevin T. Carter: (43:54)
So India has got a ton of opportunity. It's got a lot of companies coming public, and the next 18 months could see as many as 15 or 20 Indian internet companies come public. And people should be excited about it, because it's coming off of a very low base with a large population. You still have 900 million people in India that don't have a smartphone, which means you have 900 million people without a computer or the internet, but that's changing very fast.

John Darsie: (44:24)
Right. Let's go to Latin America for a second. So you talked about a company like Mercado Libre that's been on fire over the last several years in Latin America, different characteristics than places like Southeast Asia or a place like India. What is the climate there right now for investing, and particularly in technology, which is an area that you're keenly focused on? And what does the IPO Pipeline look like in Latin America?

Kevin T. Carter: (44:48)
Well, it looks good. And Latin America's e-commerce penetration rates are a fraction of Asia's, and Mercado Libre is the leader. Mercado Libre technically, it's an Argentinian company, so on fact sheets and other things you'll see Argentina listed. But it really dominates both e-commerce and payments in every country, from Mexico all the way down through Argentina, with Brazil being the largest market followed by Mexico. And, in particular, it was a great example of the FinTech story. And it's what really drove the stocks incredible returns of the last several years, it was the strength of their FinTech business. And it's also a company that's a good example of another problem with traditional indexing. Mercado Libre is not in the Vanguard or iShares emerging market fund. And about half of these companies are not included. So you get, if you buy a, the traditional approach to indexing in emerging markets, you get Petrobras, the Brazilian corrupt oil company twice, but you don't get the Brazilian e-commerce leader, Mercado Libre. So that's the biggest of the companies.

Kevin T. Carter: (46:04)
But you've got Uruguay has a public company now, dLocal, that we'll add in our next rebalance. You've got the world's biggest online bank in Brazil, Nubank, which will come public likely in the next year. They just raised $500 million from my heroes in Omaha, Berkshire Hathaway. And that's an online only bank that now is half the size account wise as Wells Fargo. And Berkshire Hathaway is also an investor in StoneCo, which is a NASDAQ listed FinTech company out of Brazil. So there's a lot of entrepreneurs in that part of the world and the US institutional investors are backing them, including, as mentioned Berkshire Hathaway. So lots going on there.

Kevin T. Carter: (46:55)
And, I guess the other thing I would say when we talk about South America and having just talked about China and the China regulatory risks, everything's relative in the world. And you say, "Okay, well, I don't trust the Chinese government, so, okay, well, what else do we have in emerging markets?" You've got Putin in Russia, you've got the last two presidents of Brazil went to prison for basically stealing your money if you're investing in the broad indexes. So everything's relative in the world, and these other regions have political risk as well, and they also have regulatory risks. But China just happens to be a bit more advanced in all things.

John Darsie: (47:31)
Right. Switching gears a little bit, I talked about, a core tenet of investing is that you have to pay for growth. Things like P/E ratios and I know you look at something like the PEG ratio, which is looking at price to earnings in the context of growth rate, but you talked about how China's e-commerce and internet-based economy is much more robust than it is in places like India or Latin America or elsewhere in emerging markets, but how expensive is the growth that you're paying for generally in emerging markets right now, relative to what you're seeing in the US or developed markets? And in which markets are you able to most inexpensively access what you deem to be really exciting growth?

Kevin T. Carter: (48:13)
Well, I think you're absolutely right. The only ratio I care about is the P/E versus the growth rate. And I like to use the revenue growth rate for a couple of reasons. A, it's your purest form of growth. You can grow earnings with declining revenue by share, buybacks and so forth. And also you have what's now widely accepted model, which is to get big and not worry about profits until you're really, really big, all of Amazon. So I look at the P/E over the revenue growth. And the valuations right now at this particular group of companies, the EMQQ index has a PEG ratio of about 0.68, 0.69, and that's half the PEG ratio of the US tech leaders. And it's about a third the PEG ratio of the S&P 500. And so, after this big decline, I'm pounding the table. I think valuations are very reasonable.

Kevin T. Carter: (49:14)
The Chinese part of that story, which is the largest part, is the cheapest right now for obvious reasons. The fear has led to very, I think, attractive multiple. So I think that China's probably the cheapest part right now. But the non-China part, the next frontier, which is the 35% that's India, Brazil, Nigeria, et cetera, it's PEG ratio is about, one, it's growth rates higher, but the PEG ratios are, I think, quite attractive. And I launched this, EMQQ, seven years ago. I did it when a friend of mine asked me what was the best emerging markets ETF for her daughter's college fund. So a three-year-olds, 15-year time horizon, and I thought based on the valuations that this sector was the best way to get that exposure. And even after our big decline, we're still number one by a decent amount out of everybody in the emerging markets.

Kevin T. Carter: (50:22)
And right now with valuations, I think that we'll be in the same place five years from now because the PEG ratio is very attractive. And I think that the valuations will take a permanent hit from the current recent debacle, enough people will run away and not come back. But in the short term, as we say in Omaha, the market's a voting machine, but in the long-term, it's a scale. And what goes on the scale is the cash in the cash register at the end of the day.

John Darsie: (50:53)
Amen. Well, that's a good place for us to finish. Again, thank you for coming on Kevin T. Carter of EMQQ. Again, it's the number one emerging markets ETF over both a three and five-year time horizon out of, I believe around 57 funds over the shorter timeframe and about 46 that have been around over a five-year timeframe, focused on innovation in internet and e-commerce primarily. Again, EMQQ, Kevin, thanks so much for joining us. Anthony, do you have a final word for Kevin before we let him go?

Anthony Scaramucci: (51:21)
No, listen, I only wish I had met Kevin 20 years ago. I wanted to be in the room where it happened in the meeting with him and Dean Malkiel, putting this thing together. So congratulations to you, Kevin, and I'm looking forward to the next 20 years. I'm hoping that we can do a lot of fun things together.

Kevin T. Carter: (51:39)
I share your sentiments, lovely to meet you guys, both.

John Darsie: (51:43)
And Kevin, we're also excited to have you at our in-person SALT Conference this fall, which we're looking forward to you giving this presentation to our community in person, which we're thrilled to be bringing those events back. So look forward to seeing you then. And thank you everybody who is both attending SALT this fall, and everybody who tuned into this SALT Talk. Just a reminder, if you missed any part of this episode, you can access an on-demand on our website. It's salt.org/talks, and on our YouTube channel, which is called SALT too.

John Darsie: (52:12)
We're also on social media. Twitter is where we're most active at SALT Conference, but we're also on LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook as well, streaming some of these episodes there. And please spread the word about these SALT Talks. We think, especially with the recent drawdown that we've seen in China and emerging markets, we don't give investment recommendations, but it's certainly a compelling time to look at continuing to diversify your portfolio, and as Kevin mentioned, some of the valuations in emerging markets in terms of what you're paying for growth are particularly attractive right now.

John Darsie: (52:40)
But on behalf of Anthony and the entire salt team, this is John Darsie signing off from SALT Talks for today. We hope to see you back here again soon.

Valerie Mosley: Financial Wellness | SALT Talks #216

“I’m very interested in compounding compassion and compounding interest. If you widen your lens just a little, then you’ll learn things like the median cost for a payday loan, at a time when interest rates are zero, is 391%. That’s unconscionable.”

Valerie Mosley created Valmo Ventures to advise and invest in companies that add value to both investors and society. She recently founded BrightUp, a FinTech company focused on democratizing wealth building and wellbeing. Mosley sits on several boards including Eaton Vance’s family of mutual funds, DraftKings, Groupon and Envestnet. Previously, she was an SVP, partner, portfolio manager and investment strategist at Wellington Management Company, a $1 trillion money management firm. Mosley was named UK’s Powerlist International Person of the Year 2017, and one of the 50 Most Powerful Women in Business and one of the Top 75 African Americans on Wall Street by Black Enterprise Magazine.

Valerie Mosley has always sought to bring people together in order to share different perspectives and build understanding. As a freshman at Duke University in the 1970s, she put together talks on race relations after learning she was the first black person many of her white classmates had met. She left a successful career at Wellington Management Company to pursue a more impact-oriented career focused on wealth building and wellbeing. Mosley cites the stagnation of wages among the bottom 80% of earners and its negative effect in the face of rapidly rising costs in health care, housing and education. Teaching financial literacy to the underserved is designed to have a compounding effect on both wealth and quality of life.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Val Mosley.jpeg

Valerie Mosley

Founder & CEO

Valmo Ventures

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 - Intro

3:25 - Leading race relations groups as a college freshman

7:13 - Importance of financial education in bettering society

17:36 - Democratizing wealth and well-being amid growing inequality

24:45 - Wealth disparities between white and black families

31:40 - Policy lessons learned and shifting generational trends

43:05 - Investing trends around technology, crypto and ESG

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darcie: (00:07)
Hello everyone. And welcome back to salt talks. My name is John Darcie. I'm the managing director of salt, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance technology and public policy. Salt talks are a digital interview series with leading investors, creators, and thinkers. And our goal on these salt talks the same as our goal at our salt conferences, which is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And we're very excited today to welcome a great investor who is investing in a lot of those big ideas that we love to focus on here at salt and that's Valerie Mosley. Uh, Val created Velma ventures to advise and invest in companies that add value, both to investors and to society.

John Darcie: (00:56)
She also recently founded bright up, which is a FinTech company focused on democratizing wealth building and wellbeing. She currently serves on several boards, including Eaton. Vance has family of mutual funds, DraftKings, Groupon, and invest net. Uh, previously she was a senior vice president partner portfolio manager and investment strategist at Wellington management company, which if you're not familiar and you're in the industry, there are about a $1 trillion global money management firm. Uh, Val is also on the board of new profit, which is a philanthropic, uh, venture capital firm. Valerie was named UK is powerless international person of the year in 2017 and also one of the 50 most powerful women in business. And one of the top 75 African Americans on wall street by black enterprise magazine hosting, today's talk is Anthony Scaramucci. He was the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge capital, which is a global alternative investment firm. Anthony is also the chairman of salt. And with that, I'll turn it over to Anthony for the interview.

Anthony Scaramucci: (01:59)
Well, Valerie, it is great to have you on we very much so appreciated. And so what John didn't say is that we get ratings on smalltalk talk because of him. So that was, he was tried as it was, it was a subtle undercurrent of that's totally fine, but you are a contemporary of mine. I'm counting on you to have a two on one sort of combated relationship here during this salt talk. But before we get there, tell me something that we wouldn't know about Val Mosley. If we didn't, you know, let's say you've got everything you can think of on Google Wikipedia. What would we not know about Val Mosley? It's the old fashioned question away from social media now,

Valerie Mosley: (02:44)
Right? I'm a lover of life. I'm, I'm a grateful giver. I'm the youngest of four from Tuskegee, Alabama. I lived in Germany. I studied Kenya. I lived in a dung hut. I taught financial literacy and Roxbury and Dorchester. And, uh, I think those are some of the things and I love leading and giving. And so things that might not show up, I brought together when I was at duke university as a freshman conversations between white and black, because so many people told me I was the first black person that they had ever met. And so I decided to have this conversation, I put signs up everyone, race relations. And I did that when I was 18. That's not on the resume. I just like bringing people together to talk and have different views. What

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:51)
Did you learn from that? But you know, you know, so you're 18, you are working on race relations. And so what did you learn from that?

Valerie Mosley: (04:00)
I learned that everyone at the end of the day, once the same thing and they have different perspectives and the perspective is not necessarily fact, it's a narrative and it's important to make sure that we have conversations so that generalizations are taken away and people can connect with the person. So in the middle of this crazy talk, there was a gentleman who didn't really like the fact that I was having it. Do you know what he says? He happens to be, African-American happened to be from a rough part of town. This is a long time ago. He said something crazy. Like if I had a gun right now, I would shoot every white person in this large circle. I'm 18, I'm a freshmen. And I said, wow, you know what? It's probably, I'm glad you had the, you felt like you could share how you feel. It's good that you're able to share how you feel. It's also good that people know that not everyone that looks like him feels the same thing and vice versa. So it's like the markets, there's a bid in the ask and there are people it's like, the markets are politics, there are different views. And what we have to do is just keep our spirit and our ears open enough to be able to hear somebody's view and still be very centered in your own. And I was really surprised that we're still having these conversations today.

Anthony Scaramucci: (05:24)
You thought it was going to be better when you were a kid at 18. You're like, all right, there's some racial tension here, but you know, X number of years later, it's going to be a lot better. I didn't want to date. I didn't want to date you or I, because I'm lying to people about my age vows. I didn't want to date how far back that was. So, but

Valerie Mosley: (05:42)
It was a long time ago and you do look like a baby, but,

Anthony Scaramucci: (05:46)
Well, I mean, thanks. I want to just, firstly, thank my dermatologist and all the Botox injections that he's given me over the years. Yes, exactly. At

Valerie Mosley: (05:55)
That time, I didn't sense that there tension. It was just that somebody didn't know, they said that I was the only black person that they had met outside of their nanny. And I thought, wow, this is duke. This is a long time ago. This is 1970s, late seventies. Um, and I thought let's just get together and talk so we can get to know each other

Anthony Scaramucci: (06:15)
Worse today from those talks, race relations better or worse today.

Valerie Mosley: (06:21)
I think, I think better yet. Economically in some cases it's worse, but better. I would say better.

Anthony Scaramucci: (06:33)
Well, I mean, you know, we had Don lemon, he's a very good friend of mine on, uh, the CNN anchor. Uh, he feels it's better. Uh, and he wrote, he wrote a very fascinating best-selling book about it. Um, he said that in a weird way, Trump has exposed a lot of stuff that was going on and perhaps that could even make it better. Um, before I get into my other questions. So I want to go to Roxbury, Massachusetts, because that's the south side of Boston, primarily African American community. I went to Tufts, my roommate, Raul Silva, uh, was from Roxbury, Massachusetts. So I know a lot about Roxbury. How did you end up in Roxbury, Massachusetts?

Valerie Mosley: (07:14)
I believe that to whom much is given much is required. And I just feel like I've been so blessed in my life. And I realize that education is power. And you asked me earlier, what's different about me. What somebody would know is that the first part of my life, I grew up in inner city Philly until I was 12. And the second part, my father was in the service, uh, in the army. And when he came out of Vietnam and service as a major, he was given some stock options to become the head of security at the Franklin mint in Philadelphia. And those stock options went up in value and that gave him the opportunity to move his family of four with his wife to another area, which is still Philadelphia, but surrounded by grass instead of cement. And that exposure made all the difference in the world, um, to me, because it started planting seeds of what was possible.

Valerie Mosley: (08:09)
So I felt like I've been really blessed. I'm at Wellington, I'm a partner on Manny, but managing billions of dollars. Let me make sure that I share what I wish I had learned. And I met some teachers and they told me about their class. And so my son and I went over and just started teaching financial literacy. And we started showing, showing the power of compounding interest. How much could you make? Like literally somebody that's 16, you'll appreciate this. We're in Roxbury, we're in the class. I say, how much can you make during the summer? And I asked two different classes and they said, oh, we can. I said, and safe. They thought, um, $1,200 at the time. I said that a hundred dollars a month. Let's let's, let's, let's push this out a hundred dollars a month. Can you make $25 a week? You put that in the calculator at 16, a hundred dollars a month by the time.

Valerie Mosley: (08:59)
I mean, and by the time they would retire, I know it's a long time if they just did that. And they never changed that they would've saved roughly $80,000 and they would have made $725,000. And they're being able to see what was free. Money was really impactful. And suddenly they understood compounding. They understood convexity. They understood things that help them with their math. And so we, we worked with the federal reserve and started teaching the teachers how to teach the kids, the em, and money and the math behind the magic of growing money. And that's what brought me there. It was fun

Anthony Scaramucci: (09:38)
Since fat is fascinating. I always tell the kids about the magic penny. You know, remember that conversation. If I gave you a $10,000 a day for 30 days or a magic penny that doubles every day for 30 days, while you start out not doing so well. Well, you're you get $10.8 million at the end of the 30 days, if you have the penny, uh, which sort of reinforces it for kids. Yes. So let me go back to why leave Wellington, you have this fabulous career you're doing amazingly well there so wildly. Well, it didn't strike out on your own. That's a really,

Valerie Mosley: (10:12)
Really good question. I love Wellington. It's a phenomenal firm. It's has a it's it's a trillion dollar plus asset management firm. I still have a very good relationship there. I believe that to whom much is given, we talked about this before much is required. And, and, and I just felt like I loved what I was doing. I'm adding value to portfolios, but I, and for clients, but I felt like my wingspan was a little bigger and I wanted to add value to society and to life. And sometimes you, you can get put in a box in a farm. And I just, if you're an investor, you you're betting all day, you have a view and you take a bet and I just want it to bet on me. You live this life once. And there are other things that I felt like I can do, and I just wanted the time to do it and try it.

Valerie Mosley: (11:01)
And you know what happened? I had this conversation with my daughter and I said, you know what? I'm very spiritual. I said, my instincts have never led me wrong. And I said, in something tells me I'm supposed to leave. And I said, but I have three children. I'm a single mom. You guys are about to two were in college. You're about to go to college. And she says to me, in the morning, you trust your instincts either you trusted or you don't. And I just started laughing as I, she left to go onto to, uh, she was leaving to go to, to a high school. And I told her later that it's one thing. If you're walking across, I told her this too, if you're walking across, uh, uh, I said, let's say that we're at the, um, the grand canyon and you've got to walk across it on a rather narrow and you practice it all the time, but it's a narrow bore that you're walking past.

Valerie Mosley: (11:52)
And, and I said, and if you, if it's over the grand canyon, the risks are different. And so you have to have risk adjusted returns. And her Quip at the time was either you trust instincts. So you doubt mom. And I just felt like most people who are upset at the end of their life, there's a study that was done for people who are in their nineties and their eighties. What do they regret? They don't regret what they tried. They don't regret what they tried and failed. They regret what they never got to try. And I knew that there was some things inside of me that I just wanted to try, and I couldn't do it while I was at Wellington. And one of the things I wanted to do is to take my kids on this trip around the world at a time when they could at three and a half years apart. So the day after I left Wellington, Wellington, um, gifted part of it, I took them on this trip around the world because I want to, to expose them to things.

Anthony Scaramucci: (12:41)
What was the most fascinating place in the world that you traveled to with your kids? You get, you get high marks for Italy, by the way, I'm just going to point that out, but you don't necessarily say Italy, although you could name one of the grandkids, Anthony, you're just pointing that out as well. What, what was the, what was the best place?

Valerie Mosley: (13:04)
The middle east in general was just fascinating because we were in Jordan during Ramadan, we went to Israel. The tension in Israel was just incredible between the different groups and you can't read about it. We heard about Palestinian saying that they don't get water during the middle of the week, and we don't hear about that. And then we went to, um, uh, um, uh, a traditional, um, dinner on Friday and skipping the name. Um, we were in the, we went to a Hasidic Jews, families dinner, and the family members there didn't know what was happening either. So it was, for me, it was just fascinating to be in the small place like Israel, which was just beautiful, that those who were there felt very strongly about certain things, but they were unaware of what I was hearing from the workers who happened to be Palestinian around the rationing of the water.

Valerie Mosley: (14:05)
That was fascinating. Um, and Jordan, we went to the, uh, my friend was, uh, Stu Jones went to duke and he was the ambassador to Jordan. And we got to go to the refugee camps and see the technology where people were using the irises as a way of identifying who's who, so who should get funding or not. So the technology in the middle east, and we just loved, I just loved the pyramids. It's just a really fast, it's the only of their seven original wonders of the world that remain an order of magnitude. And so my kids in terms of structure, they enjoy that in terms of the people, um, they enjoyed, they, they enjoyed, I should ask them, they enjoy Trinidad and they enjoyed meeting people that knew each other from college at this dinner in Jordan. And that was sort of interesting to see how small the world can be. Um,

Anthony Scaramucci: (15:09)
Great it's great stuff. And the, you know, the Israelis, obviously a dispute that with the Palestinians, but the Palestinians, if you go into their territory, they have those big black water vessels on their rooftops to protect themselves because they are getting their municipal water from the, uh, the state of Israel. So I don't know, it's a hard, it's a hard issue. I'll tell you, I, you know, you would love to see these people get along because they're descendants of each other, you know, but it's the same thing with the, uh, blacks and whites. There's really only one human. There's really only one race. It's the human race. We, we have to try to figure out a way to do this. Yeah,

Valerie Mosley: (15:48)
It is. It is one race. And, and as someone, as you, as, as a, as an investor, right, there is a bid, there's an ask, there's a viewpoint that says, how do you value this? But everyone wants the same thing. So when we were driving around with this Christian, Palestinian, he was pointing out the green parts on the roof. And he says, this roof shows that that's suggests that they're getting water regularly. We don't get water regularly. And I said, that, can't be, I just thought that can't be. And then when we were in this very nice hotel, I decided to ask some of the workers and they said, yeah, it's true. And I was surprised by that. And then when I asked the people who were living in Israel, they didn't know. I found that just really fascinating. Um, it's a separate issue. It's complicated issue, it's a charged issue. Um, and I personally found that interesting, but my son studied in Spain and we got a chance to, and so instead of that goes to, and we got to meet with his mother and father and his family and some of the people he studied with. And that, that was a highlight as well.

Anthony Scaramucci: (16:53)
So you've got this social conscience, you've got this purpose in your life. You've obviously done amazingly well. And you're starting a company now called you've started it. Of course, you founded the company called bright up, which is aimed at democratizing wealth and building people's wellbeing. And you're also trying to bring financial wellness to underserved populations. So tell us about how it's going, tell us about your vision for this and how you're going to execute. Thank you very much.

Valerie Mosley: (17:27)
It's a B to B to C company again. Yes. Democratizing. Well, well building and wellbeing. What we know is that stress is the number one cause of the costs that companies have related outside of benefit costs. It's it's, it's it's stress-related and the number one source of stress is financially related. And one of the things that I did at Wellington is that I chaired the firms industry strategy group. And you can imagine that a long time ago, the high yield group was not talking to the small cap manager, even though there was a lot of information in the fixed income markets regarding credit default swaps, it wasn't altogether obvious or within the consideration of equity investors. And so post telecom debacle, when analysts were still saying by, at and T over sprint, the CEO and my boss said, you know what? I think we need an industry strategy group.

Valerie Mosley: (18:31)
And so we put this together and it was great where for the first time people who were investing in silos got together, and we decided to have a longer term view strategically thinking about what are headwinds that are facing some industries and tailwinds propelling others. So when I left, it did the same thing. And if you look at wealth, I think that there are a couple of challenges out there. We have, we have, uh, we have additional pandemics. Um, Anthony, I think it's, uh, low self-worth and low net worth. So I started peeling apart. What are some of the challenges around building the wealth? And it's pretty amazing that right now, 69% of all Americans struggle to make a thousand dollar unexpected expenditure, 69%. It's not a small issue. Then I started to look a little more closely, and I found out that if you look at the income growth, real wages over the long run, the top 20% of earners have had a healthy increase in income, the bottom 80%. So let's talk about what is underserved the bottom 80%, like both has been really quite marginal and

Anthony Scaramucci: (19:41)
I can think syrup, but why do you think that is though? Why is there an income differential and why, why have we seen one group growing and the other one stagnating,

Valerie Mosley: (19:53)
I think it has to do with information and access. And so I talked to you a little bit about my story and growing from, um, sort of a gang infested Philly to a space where you have more opportunity. There's more information, it's information, there's trust, there's education, there's the costs. And so let's, let's double click on that for a second. If the revenue is growing really rapidly for the top 20% of earners, and it's, um, I'll give you some numbers. The top 1% had a growth over the last 40 years of 345%. That's the top 0.1%. The top 1% real wage growth over the last 40 years has been 160%. The bottom 90% has grown 26% over the last 40% and real wages. Now that's using the regular CPI. If we look at the components of the CPI, the components of the CPI for, um, medical care is only 8.9%, but the medical care costs have grown over a hundred percent and since 2000.

Valerie Mosley: (21:01)
So if you were to take what people are experiencing, the medical costs, the housing costs and the educational costs, it's sword. So on a usage of justice basis, the earnings of the bottom 90% of Americans has actually been pretty mild at. And, and, and, and you asked me another question that something that you might not know, I'm the youngest of four. My brother was four years, excuse me, 10 years, my senior, Jamie Carlson Mosley called him Jamie. He loved me and I adored him. My sister is nine years. My senior, she went to Villanova while I'm at Wellington, doing quite well, just figuring out strategy stuff and investing in loving it. I learned that my brother is unbanked and I heard about the unbanked. He went to school and then he left for reasons unique to our family and, um, and his situation. And he struggled a bit financially and he's such a good person.

Valerie Mosley: (22:03)
So his current level of, well shouldn't define his worth or his worthiness to learn how to become more financially healthy. So I say, come on, Jamie, let's get banked. And he gets banked and he's so conscientious. He's so conscientious. And then he doesn't realize though that if his, if his income goes below a certain amount, they start charging fees. And so he had thought he had money in the bank, spent it not very much. I think it was $25. And he had an overdraw and that overdraw drawn fee was quite high. I think it was 30 or $35. He was devastated the whole weekend. He's like, ah, something's really wrong. I go downtown. And I find out that my children I'm at the bank, my three children are not nearly as conscientious. They're late teenagers. And their account was a tied to mine that they overdrew. And they were not nearly as conscientious. And I say, all my man, I've got to talk to my children. I'm telling my banker this. And she's like, no problem, click. And she erases it. And these fees, each one of them had some of them. And so the fees are approaching $200. She said, yes, female

Anthony Scaramucci: (23:08)
Adapt my children by the way, because I get hit with this, I would say twice a week. So when I drop them off, I'll drop off my adult children at your home later today, come on. Hopefully I'll have a wooden spoon in there somewhere where you're going to whack them. Exactly.

Valerie Mosley: (23:25)
I said, I'm going to talk to these kids. And she says, no problem. She wipes it out because I'm perceived as a profitable client. Right. And what happens is because the asset management, the wealth management industry, nothing's wrong with the wealth management industry, they get paid a percentage of the assets that they manage. So they focus on people who already have assets and the top 10% of asset owners, stocks, and bonds, um, own 84% of the, of those assets. And so naturally they're going to focus on those who have the assets. I get it

Anthony Scaramucci: (23:58)
Because I was saying this the other day, you know, I remember this when I was in school, I was at Harvard law school. I was like, you guys think you're that much smarter than the kids in my neighborhood. You're actually not. Okay. I've got buddies of mine putting in sheet rock and clamming out and oyster bay that are as smart as you. They just didn't have access to the same environment or through luck and trial and tribulation. They didn't end up like me dropping into that environment. Some of it was accidental. Some of it was providential, you know? So I, I agree with you widening the widening. The access is super important. Yeah.

Valerie Mosley: (24:33)
And access and information. And now technology is a game changer. So I'm on the board of Envestnet investments, a great firm. They, they, they fuel and support a third of the independent registered investment advisors. So the $4 trillion on the asset management platform. And I shared with the CEO, this, um, the color of wealth study by the Boston fed, what do you think the median wealth might be for white families in the Boston

Anthony Scaramucci: (25:04)
Net worth, but so, well, I would say 700,000 probably way off.

Valerie Mosley: (25:11)
Okay. But it's okay. It's a guess. Um, they over index and this is your, your, your response is common actually. Uh, because they over-index to national average. And when this report came out as 250,000. Okay. And that's higher than the national average, what do you, what do you think it might be? Is it, they did a study of, it's kind of rare. One, one in Boston, one in Los Angeles. What do you think the net worth would be for African-American families? Just to use it as an example?

Anthony Scaramucci: (25:44)
Well, you know, I'm going to say something and then it's probably going to reflect poorly on me for saying, but I think it's very low, probably 10,000 less. No.

Valerie Mosley: (25:51)
And actually you're in the right direction. So it doesn't reflect negatively on you. It's just an unfortunate fact. The answer was $8, $8. Okay. 250,000 to $8. And I didn't know that either. I said, you've got to be kidding me. Let me

Anthony Scaramucci: (26:06)
Just say something. It's very obvious to you and obvious to me. So that, that creates some anger. You know, I mean, we w I, you don't have to go to 16, 19 and go through the whole story of racial injustice in the United States for 400 years, you can just look at the current economic situation and look at the access and the information, and look at the, you know, the institutions that we've set up, that they benefit certain people that don't benefit other people. And that would create naturally some level of dissatisfaction. Is that fair to say

Valerie Mosley: (26:39)
A hundred percent. That's, it's fair to say. Um, and I think I'm pretty analytical. I like to think about, as you say, what causes these things, sometimes it's trust it's information, it's access to education. Um, and, but there's some things that are changing right now that leave me really optimistic. And again, everyone wants to be able to earn a livable wage and be able to take care of their families. And it's more challenging for some more than others. And one of the things that I'm really excited about, we talked about, um, right up, I believe that we can give more people access to wealth, building strategies, and so bright up as a platform that offers a suite of services and make it avail. And we make it available to communities and corporations. So B to B to C is, is, is, is, is, is really business to, to, to, to business corporations, but also organizations, because you want to trust people.

Valerie Mosley: (27:42)
And most people don't have access to investment advisors because of how the pricing structure works. And we think we can change that, bring in advisors, bring in fairly price capital, and bring in education and information. And so we're really excited about that. And you asked the question about the ROI, how does that benefit? The employer? One we think is going to help with turnover and that's lower turnover. There's the business round table where 183 companies said that they aren't going to operate just for the benefit of their shareholders. They care about stakeholders. And two of the five statements they're referenced their employees. If you care about your employees, all of your employees, why not bring them benefits that will help them on the financial side. They don't get a lot of support. You don't get, as you mentioned, you don't get financial literacy in school and you don't get financial support outside of school.

Valerie Mosley: (28:40)
For the most part, if you're in a certain wealth bracket, and I'm saying the bottom 80% of well, um, creators and earners, and, and one other thing I wanted to bring up to you, I don't know if you wanted to bring this up. I love studying the markets and where people and where you get the biggest returns is. If you can go do your app, your research, if you can go where others aren't. So Mike Milkin bless his soul was brilliant at the time. And I know some people have different views about Mike. I think he's a genius. In many ways, Mike Milken identified that there was an opportunity because banks wouldn't lend to companies that were re rated below triple B. So I did some research and discovered a $3 billion case study $3 billion in conjunction with a top five bank for lending, for credit.

Valerie Mosley: (29:38)
Um, for debt consolidation, corporations can reduce their debt, comfy countries reduce their costs of debt. Why can't individuals. We do so their cost of debt. And for many people, if they have any debt on their FICO scores, which is very unforgiving, you can't get access to fairly priced capital. So there's a company that put $3 billion to work in conjunction with a top five bank, $3 billion, 50% of those loans. The bank said no to 650 scores and below, no, we aren't going to lend to, but this, this, this algorithm, the analytics said that they could separate the willingness to pay from the ability to pay. And so that these guys were ranked crime, they went ahead and gave the loans. And the loan losses were less than 3%. That's exciting. This is for debt consolidation. So if you have somebody has 27% credit card debt, and you want to refinance it at 12%, you just free up a lot of capital. And the lenders, um, had less than 3% loss. So I think that that is a huge opportunity.

Anthony Scaramucci: (30:50)
All right. So you're going to disintermediate this space and you're going to help people that are under-banked or perhaps lopsided in the, in the credit card area. Um, I, uh, I have to turn it over to this erstwhile millennials shortly. So I want to ask you a boomer question if it's okay. Cause we're both baby boomers. Um, did we screw things up because you know, when you go back to what you said about yourself at 18, or when I was 18, I had this impression of us as a generation that we were going to make things better. When I look upon the society. Now, I think that the debt that we took on and the way the politicians over promise and overspent and the fracture that we have in our society, that we make things better as baby boomers, or we make things worse.

Valerie Mosley: (31:42)
That's an interesting question, Anthony. I think that we're imperfect beings. So there's some things we did well, and there's some things we didn't do so well, I look at John Dorsey

Anthony Scaramucci: (31:53)
When you're saying that, does he look imperfect to you look at John Dorsey with that shocking blonde hair and that big spot, does he look like perfect?

Valerie Mosley: (32:00)
He does not look perfect at all, but no, I think, I think that, um, we we've made some mistakes, but I don't think we mess it up. I don't think there's a lot that we get from blaming and instead the mirror image of a crisis as an opportunity. And so where we've missed up, we have the opportunity to learn. And, and, and that's what I'm excited about. I'm actually really optimistic. You mentioned, you mentioned Trump. One of my fellow partners said, you know what I think Trump is as, as is one of the best things that could have happened to this country.

Anthony Scaramucci: (32:36)
Well, Don and Don lemon believes that. Yeah. Tell us what

Valerie Mosley: (32:40)
Well, things that were hidden are now have now surfaced and, and in any process, it's, it starts with, let's just be honest with where we are.

Anthony Scaramucci: (32:55)
Yeah.

Valerie Mosley: (32:56)
We have insights on so many different levels about in the

Anthony Scaramucci: (32:59)
Past, you're given a pass to our generation. You're saying we're okay. We didn't, we didn't, you know, $27 trillion of debt, but it's no problem. And, you know, we have this wealth and income disparity in the country, which really started in the Reagan era and has been exacerbated over 40 years. Well, you're not, you're giving us a policy fast and you're giving us a

Valerie Mosley: (33:24)
No, I wouldn't say that. That's fair.

Anthony Scaramucci: (33:27)
All right. So tell me, tell me what is fair. I want to be fair. Okay.

Valerie Mosley: (33:34)
Um, I have a tendency and a bias to give people the benefit of the doubt in general. And so I think that people tend to react to their world. And if you were in your bubble, you are so unaware of what's happening elsewhere. And if you're unaware, you don't respond. So what I'm very interested in is compounding compassion and compounding interests and teaching other people to do that. But compound compassion, because if you widen your lens just a little bit, then you will see and learn that the median things like the median costs for a payday loan at a time when interest rates are zero is 391% that's unconscionable. And that's only if somebody pays it back in two weeks. And if they don't, it's 521%, that's the rate, the APR that people who need access to cash the most don't get it. And so if you widen the aperture and you see that, wow, 90% of Americans over the last 40 years, their wages that will wage both has only been 26%, but mine, because I'm in the top 1% has been a hundred.

Valerie Mosley: (34:44)
And you know, when you know that, then you're less likely to be judgmental and say, oh, they just didn't get it together. If you do the analytics and say, oh, but the cost of education is increasingly beyond their reach or the cost of healthcare and, and, and, and medical care costs is, is just exorbitant. There's a reason why this happened. So I think that we are often as strong as our weakest link. So it behooves all of us to pay attention to this broader challenge. Um, for sure. And so I believe that we can, and that my call out would be to anybody who has been successful and you've profited. Now we can go from profit to purpose. And what do you do to make a difference? And I don't think it's rocket science, we just need the minds and, and, and, and, and then, and, and the intelligence and, and will to make a difference for a broader swath of people. And by the way, the person, well, I have another view, but I'll stop there.

Anthony Scaramucci: (35:45)
No, listen, I think it's very, I think it's very well said, but you have another view, please share it. Um,

Valerie Mosley: (35:54)
The person who's struggling and the Appalachian mountains are struggling with some of the same thing as individuals that might be in inner city that are struggling at the end of the day, they need to have an income that's livable, and they want to provide for their families. Now there's some other things that are going on that might give people advantages, but I believe that your current level of wealth does not define and determine your worth or your worthiness to become more financially healthy. And I think that the capital markets can really offer, um, some results. For example, if we find some creative ways, I used to buy these structures where there's a first loss. So if there's catalytic capital and there's foundation dollars, just put up a first loss of 5% or 10% against fairly priced loans. So the capital markets can come in and offer attractive returns and an environment where yields are so low, globally in a space where ESG trends are increasing at a time where there aren't very many impactful, attractive returns being offered in the fixed income space. So I think we can create win-win win solutions using catalytic and competitive capital.

Anthony Scaramucci: (37:16)
All of a sudden, I, I, I, not only do I agree with you, the other thing that often offends me is when people tell me, well, the people that are looking for jobs cause they were getting welfare. And so therefore it's more cost-effective to stay at home. There might be a fraction of those people. I'm not suggesting otherwise we have millions of people in our society, but I grew up in a blue collar neighborhood. People, my neighbor wanted to work, they got the work. And so when I hear somebody giving me that nonsense spiel, that's usually someone that has a platinum spoon in their mouth that never had an hourly job or w or live with people that had hourly wages. So, uh, but I doing, and I, and I agree with you. I get to turn it over to John and let him, let him ask some questions. There is sitting there looking perfect, but they have, and everything you can see it says, Val called you perfect. You know, that's going to bother me after this salt dog is over. Okay. You know that, you know,

Valerie Mosley: (38:10)
Thank you, Anthony. And, and one other thing that we talked about, so you grew up in a blue collar collar area. My, my sister is a nurse. She went to Villanova. She goes to get a car and I say, oh, what's your interest rate? And he said, it's a three year used car, 13%, 13%. Are you kidding me at a time? I get on the phone. I say, triple C rated companies don't have returns. Aren't getting offers like this. Like the next day he comes back to her and says, oh, we'll do it at 9%. So we need more people that are advocating for hardworking Americans. I believe.

Anthony Scaramucci: (38:44)
Well, 9% is still high for that low.

Valerie Mosley: (38:47)
It's still high, especially

Anthony Scaramucci: (38:49)
When they've got the security of the car. And they've probably got a personal guarantee from your cyst. Who's got a, who's got a full-time job, but this is the reason why a lot of these neobanks are working. Why SkyBridge, frankly, as an investor and a lot of these banks, because they're going to, dis-intermediate all that nonsense. You're going to help them do it. But go ahead, Darcie. I know you're dying. Ask the questions here, go ahead. Look at those teeth coming. Now, go ahead. Doors, fire away.

John Darcie: (39:14)
We'll since you're so focused on the generational aspects, Anthony, I'll start there. You talked about your brother, the differences in terms of the way he views the financial system versus your kids. Potentially. What differences do you observe generationally and what trends are you seeing among younger people and the way they think about financial wellbeing, that might be different from an older generation.

Valerie Mosley: (39:36)
Wow. Oh, that's a really good question. And so many different ways. One, um, I love this younger generation. They still don't trust. They don't trust the larger, um, financial institutions. Uh, crypto is leveling playing fields. We haven't even talked about crypto, but I believe that the younger generation is willing to take more risks. And I love that. And I believe that there are calculated risk. I think that the younger generations, they care a lot about what matters and, and they're less likely to want to walk the straight line and say, I'm going to do what I was told to do. But they think outside of the line and they're independent thinkers and say, no, I don't want to do that. My daughter, my daughter wants said, mom, I don't, this guy said I work so that I can live. Who wants to do that? Why don't you live?

Valerie Mosley: (40:35)
So you can work at something you really love. So this notion that why don't you try to find something that you enjoy and how do you give back, comes up over and over and over again. And naturally you have, I mean, I, I came in the, but anyway, this younger generation, I find one, they, um, they're more open. They've seen more things. Think about the, you asked the question earlier, Anthony did that, did our generation get it completely wrong? We were just closed and very narrow, like the number of gay and lesbian acceptance conversations that happen with the millennials. Centene seems to be much greater than they happened during our day. The millennials are much more diverse and they're a much more accepting of interracial marriages. Thank God,

Anthony Scaramucci: (41:30)
Thank God for that.

Valerie Mosley: (41:31)
Exactly. Then we just, then we have they care and they want to buy from companies that are doing things that, um, the right way, they care about the environment. They're a force to be reckoned with even something like tattoos. I'm not a fan just to be clear of tattoos, but if you are going to work with the younger generation, you have to keep your mind open because the majority have, or will have something on their body. So

John Darcie: (42:05)
I'll try to return expectations. Val, I want to dig into that a little bit more. So there's, there's all kinds of memes that go around on social media about, you know, investment returns and millennials and gen Z. You know, there's these, these massive price appreciation events that are taking place within cryptocurrencies, within technology companies, FinTech companies, a lot of different sectors. And it's almost like this, this old way of investing, uh, and even index investing that was in Vogue, you know, for a lot of the two thousands, um, seems to be going out the window because people are chasing these massive returns, you know, because maybe largely an environment created by easy money, low interest rates. Do you think, you know, first of all, what do you think return expectations for investors should be going forward? And do you think this era of outsized returns among technology stocks among cryptocurrencies and other speculative assets, do you think that will continue for a longer period of time? Or do you think maybe that younger generation is in for a expensive education here at some point?

Valerie Mosley: (43:05)
That's a very good question for one. I think that, um, I think that the stock market is overvalued and we're going to see a major correction. So if millennials, can we

Anthony Scaramucci: (43:15)
Record this and every time I ask a question, can you say it's a very good question.

Valerie Mosley: (43:20)
Yes, we can do that. Yeah, absolutely. Keep

Anthony Scaramucci: (43:22)
Going. And that's okay. It's just part of the job, Darcie Anthony Scaramucci comedy act. Okay. Keep going. I'm sorry.

Valerie Mosley: (43:29)
Um, yes, equity. I think that equity valuations are extended. Let's think about the, the basic asset classes. Bonds have come down so low. It's not a great place to be. And going forward, the returns are likely to be negative. Stocks are overvalued. There's going to be a correction. I do believe that the economy is going to get a big boost. So there may be a near term rally, but we're going to have some changes in the tax. This is my philosophy. We're going to have changes in the tax law. That's going to weigh heavily on, excuse me, the earnings. And as earnings go, prices typically go. And so I think we're going to have a correction. The multiples are still quite high. Interest rates are going higher. So we're going to have a correction. Crypto markets is still quite nascent and corporations are starting to move into the crypto world.

Valerie Mosley: (44:30)
I think as assets go, that's going to be a really attractive one. I think real estate is going to continue to be attractive. One outside of the commercial because many companies are we thinking who's going to come back and do we really need this space? And so what I think is really interesting and I'm excited about than the younger generation is that they're curious, and they're getting involved with investments and in the crypto world, I E Ethereum and Bitcoin, it gives much more access to people who would not ordinarily have access to have some upside. And I happen to believe that it's not just an, um, a gamble. I think that there's going to, I think that both will have some legs. It's

John Darcie: (45:17)
Literally taking the crypto a little bit more. You think that there's, there's upside to be had in Bitcoin and Ethereum are the two sort of bellwether, uh, players. Now in the crypto world, you have a lot of speculative crypto assets that are also performing well, uh, at various times around them. Uh, but you think this is part of a larger movement. Why do you think this is part of a larger movement? And, and, you know, let's say five or 10 years down the road, do you think we're going to see a major disintermediation of the entire financial system and the traditional banking system? I don't think it will.

Valerie Mosley: (45:47)
I don't think it will be a major disintermediation. I think that, I think that it is a significant force that people are ignoring and not taking the time to learn. And yet millennials and more diverse communities are paying attention to it's, it's, it's sort of like a freedom project for some, um, again, because it's global because, uh, um, because it's easy to get access to, you don't have to have a certain income level to be able to invest and to get outsize returns. It's getting attention. I do think that there's going to be a correction there as well. It does every so often there's going to be a sell off and that sell off, I think is an opportunity to buy. I do believe that, um, Bitcoin has, um, legs and I think it's DRM and polka dot and other, uh, the other other platforms where you can build on some functionality has a place in our investment world and we'll have a place in, um, um, in practical use. It's actually pretty fascinating. Well,

John Darcie: (46:51)
You've obviously done your homework on the crypto space, uh, talking about a few of those protocols and projects, um, that we're very interested in this space, as well as you may know, of having invested a significant amount of amount of money in a Bitcoin, uh, w with potentially other projects in the pipeline that I can't talk in a more concrete way about, uh, I'll

Valerie Mosley: (47:09)
Name, a few that you should probably pay attention to rally, I think is really fascinating because of the way that it empowers the creators. I think Falcon X is really sweet because Falcon X is giving the institutional answer to Coinbase. And it's just a matter of time before more start to pay attention to it. Yep. I know of some, yeah, I, I do think that there is a world in crypto. And if you think about the fact that there's been so much money supply, sometimes I hear people talk about the money supply and the fact that we put a lot of money into the, into the economy. And therefore we're going to have inflation that didn't happen during the financial crisis. So money, uh, money coming into the system does not necessarily translate into inflation. You've got to have the demand, you've got people who want to spend, and I think that that's going to happen now. So when you think about inflation and you think about where the stock market is, and you think about where the bond market is right now, you aren't likely to get very attractive, real returns in stocks or bonds, but I do think you'll get it in this store of value of Bitcoin. And I do think that real estate residential real estate will continue to rally. So that's why I liked that as an asset class. And what I love about the younger generation is that they're open to learning about and, uh, supporting

John Darcie: (48:32)
All right value. You're an enlightened boomer that that's great to have, uh, you know, people like you on the show. Cause again, we're, we're very sort of bullish on the asset class. Uh, last question. It's, it's another question about macro investment trends. So you're a professional investor with one of the most famous and, and high-performing groups, Wellington on the planet. And so you've obviously in addition to all the, all the work you're doing, sort of on the impact side, you're, you're trained as an investor. What other macro investment trends you talked about, the fact that you think the stock market at large is somewhat overvalued, but are there any other investment trends outside of crypto that you're particularly bullish on? For example, you know, we also really liked the FinTech sector more generally outside of even crypto. We've invested in some Neo banking businesses, as Anthony mentioned, like a chime, um, that's, that's creating a better experience for, especially if people are on the, on the lower income threshold, uh, we've invested in Klarna, which is in the buy now pay later space, which is re-imagining credit in a way that's less destructive for the average consumer.

John Darcie: (49:35)
Uh, we've also, uh, very bullish on the life sciences sector and, uh, raising a fund to invest in early stage, uh, sort of pre programmable biology is the general theme. But what areas of the market from a macro perspective are you most bullish on,

Valerie Mosley: (49:48)
I love the FinTech space, which is why I'm going into it. You guys should invest in us after we go for our next round. We had a, um, yeah, we were oversubscribed, um, for our seed round. So we'll come back to you when we execute. Um, um, I think AI is going to be pretty interesting. Um, the, if you talk to technologists, uh, the CEOs of companies they've talked about it, but they haven't done anything. It's only about a third of companies that have talked about it, have actually put it into practice. And so I think being thoughtful about, um, how that AI is used from a customer engagement perspective is sort of interesting. Um, I think that, I think that you don't do a lot in the real estate space, but I do think that there's a lot of, I think there's a lot going to happen there and in the creative real estate.

Valerie Mosley: (50:45)
So this is a little early, but, um, I think that 3d printing is going to be a really fascinating area because some housing costs have gotten too crazy and there's some creative ways to create green structures that are also affordable. Um, other broader trends. I think that what's, what's, what's, what's driven the stock market recently is we're going to see a shift from tech to value within the space. Um, longer-term macro trends. I think you're in it. It's it's for me, it's FinTech, it's ESG. So he takes something like a Bombus people care about the fact that the socks that you buy a sock and it's going to go to a homeless, then it's going to be underwear and then it's going to be other. And so because women and millennials care about companies that are compassionate, they care about companies that are going to help the green space or help with social SDG and E S and G I think is going to be all the rage going forward in terms of broader trends.

Valerie Mosley: (52:08)
One of the things that we did at Wellington is identify the greening of America long before this happened. We called out the fact that the auto sector was likely to implode because the world was getting increasingly flat and no one was paying attention to the OPEB liabilities. I think that's a huge trend. I think that, um, this wealth inequality is going to show up in a lot of places, which is why the FinTech, these FinTech neobanks are, are thriving because millennials and others were thinking about, I don't want to do things the old way and I want to try to invest. So I love that space. Um, another really space that I'm really excited about is, is, uh, cyber cyber security from a macro space. There's a, there's a, there's a technology out there called quantum, um, physics where the keys on the end of the, um, lock on the end of the chains instead of being math based so that it can be tackled by quantum computing, that it can be protected using physics. And I find that really fascinating. So there's going to be a real need for the crypto space. So who's out there. Who's innovating, I think is, is, is important. Well,

John Darcie: (53:26)
Val, it's been an absolute pleasure to have you on salt talks. Anthony, I want to kick it to you. If you have a final word for, for Val before

Anthony Scaramucci: (53:32)
We let her go. I think it was, I think it was fabulous. It's uh, it's, uh, I hope we get you to our conference, Val, and I hope we can, uh, hang out together when the pandemic ends. I really enjoyed it and I wish you a great success in what you're working on. Hopefully John and I and the SkyBridge team and the Saul team will find ways to help.

Valerie Mosley: (53:51)
Yeah, that's great. I love what you're doing and you know, what else I like, I like that you admit your mistakes

Anthony Scaramucci: (53:58)
Well would be, you don't have enough time for my mistakes. Okay.

Valerie Mosley: (54:02)
Nope. I heard you on clubhouse. Oh, that's the other thing I would say another trend that I didn't mention is that the two really important trends is that create a platform where you allow creators to earn money. So what's great about clubhouse is that I heard you on clubhouse. You were great, actually, you were great. You know, what made you great is that you are authentic and you were being honest about your mistakes. Um, not only with Trump, but your mistakes in life and, and, and, and, and then with your, with your marriage and your relationships, and what really matters at the end of the day, individuals matter and how you behave matters and being self-aware and saying I'm wrong. Or I made a mistake, or I have the view, but just being authentically you is a beautiful thing. And so I'd love to go to the conference as well. And I just want to say, listen, I,

Anthony Scaramucci: (54:51)
I try to do that. And, you know, as John could tell you, I went through a very rough spot. Uh, but without that kind of level of knowledge and not authenticity, you're not getting through it. So that's, that's my message. As a younger people. Now I know, I know you're like that as well. I

Valerie Mosley: (55:07)
Am. And the other thing that I didn't say, one thing I love about the millennials, I think millennials are more willing to be just open. Like we were like close, we didn't acknowledge, oh, I've got an issue here. Mental health is a big issue. This is mental health month. That's a trend, that's a trend invest in companies that are going to help more people acknowledge that they struggled. And then, and how do they get to the other side? I like what we're doing. And we're trying to bring the financial planners together with the users like Uber, rising financial wellness. Um, I like that. And I think that's, excuse me.

Anthony Scaramucci: (55:41)
No, I think it's brilliant. I think it's brilliant.

Valerie Mosley: (55:45)
And, and just because, and that's the other thing, it just, because I, I just think that we have to move forward with this notion that just because people have a different view doesn't mean they aren't good people. They just have a different view and the more confident we are and who we are, we can say, I get it. You are whatever label you want to put on it. That's your view. It doesn't mean that you're a bad person. We just have to learn and be compassionate with yourself along the way.

Anthony Scaramucci: (56:10)
Totally. With you on that. All right. Well, we'll see you soon. Thank you again. And thank

John Darcie: (56:15)
You everybody for tuning in to today's salt. Talk with Valerie Mosley. Just a reminder. If you missed any part of this talk or any of our previous salt talks, you can access them on our website. It's salt.org backslash talks or on our YouTube channel, which is called salt tube. We're also on social media. Twitter is where we're most active at salt conference, but we're also on LinkedIn, Instagram, and Facebook as well. And please spread the word about these salt talks. We love, especially when we focus on these concepts around impact investing FinTech in ways that we can create greater equity in our society, uh, through technology and through, uh, deployment of capital. We love educating people on those subjects, uh, but on behalf of Anthony and the entire salt team, this is John Darcie signing off from salt talks for today. We hope to see you back here against them.

Scott Sperling: Middle Market Growth | SALT Talks #213

“The need to increase productivity, allow employees to see their compensation levels rise and also to be able to produce products at prices that do not create significant inflation can only be solved with increasing automation.”

Scott M. Sperling is the co-CEO of Thomas H. Lee Partners, a private equity firm specializing in middle market growth companies. His current and past directorships include Thermo Fisher Scientific, Madison Square Garden Company, iHeartMedia, Wyndham Hotels and many others. Sperling is also chairman of Mass General Brigham, the Parent of the Harvard teaching hospitals, Massachusetts General Hospital and Brigham & Women’s Hospital.

Sperling discusses the shift away from investments in consumer retail and towards technology companies focused on automation. He explains how automation is necessary in driving efficiency and increasing workers’ wages while also keeping product prices low in the face of inflation concerns. Sperling discusses the major growth opportunities in healthcare, biotech and pharma. He explains the role scientific breakthroughs like genetic sequencing and mRNA technology will play in tackling some of the world’s most devastating diseases.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Scott M. Sperling.jpeg

Scott Sperling

Co-Chief Executive Officer

Thomas H. Lee Partners

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darcie: (00:07)
Hello everyone. And welcome back to salt talks. My name is John Darcie. I'm the managing director of salt, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance technology and public policy. Salt talks are a digital interview series with leading investors, creators, and thinkers. And our goal on these salt talks the same as our goal at our salt conferences, which we're excited to resume here in September of 2021 in our home city of New York. Uh, but our goal at the conferences and on these talks is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And we're very excited today to welcome Scott Sperling to salt talks. Uh, Scott is the co CEO of Thomas H. Lee partners and a member of the firm's management and investment committees.

John Darcie: (00:55)
Uh, Mr. Sperling's current and prior directorships include Thermo Fisher scientific Corp, uh, the Madison square garden company, Experian Warner music group huffed and Mifflin Univision communications, iHeart media, the learning company, Wyndham hotels, and many, many more private companies prior to joining Thomas H. Lee partners. Mr. Sperling was a managing partner and of the affiliate of Harvard management company that managed all alternative asset classes for Harvard university's endowment fund. Uh, he is the chairman of mass general Brigham the parent of the Harvard teaching hospitals, uh, Massachusetts general hospital and Brigham and women's hospital, as well as a number of leading specialty and community hospitals and physicians practice groups. Uh, he's a chairman emeritus of the city center for performing arts and Wang theater is also a member of each of Harvard business school, board of Dean's advisors. Um, uh, the Harvard university committee on university resources and the Harvard business school's rock center for entrepreneurship. He holds an MBA from Harvard business school and a bachelor's degree from Purdue university and hosting today's talk is Anthony Scaramucci. Who's the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge capital, which is a global alternative investment firm. And with that, I'll turn it over to Anthony for the interview.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:12)
Well, first of all, it's a, it's a great pleasure to have you on with us, Scott. I apologize for my attire. I feel like I don't have the standard uniform on, uh, maybe, maybe, uh, next time, although I probably can't fit into my suit anymore. I didn't get COVID 19 scat, but I got the 19 pounds. I got the, I got the 19 pounds associated with COVID-19. Um, so you had this amazing career, um, and for congratulations, but I want you, if you don't mind, we have a lot of young listeners and I want you to go back to the early days of what you were thinking about before your career started, and then how did it manifest itself pursuant to that arc of your plans and how did it deviate? Well, I would say

Scott Sperling: (02:57)
That, you know, one that I found to be a useful characteristic personally, and I know other people have a different view on this is I don't really plan ahead very much. And so it's hard to get disappointed. Uh, and I would have to say that, um, you know, I was very fortunate, uh, to, um, find some really interesting, interesting opportunities with, uh, great leaders, uh, early in my career. Uh, and that really helped guide me to where I am today. Um, I haven't worked for very many firms in my life, uh, so it's, I will acknowledge it to small sample set, but, um, uh, I started off coming out of business school BCG, which was a great experience in days when strategy consulting was still very young. This was 40 years ago. Uh, and then, uh, I was given the opportunity at a young age to, um, to start and then manage all of the alternative asset classes for the firm that manages Harvard's endowment fund and, uh, you know, being involved in venture capital and buyouts and, uh, real estate and commodities back in the mid, early eighties, all the way through the mid nineties was, uh, you know, uh, an opportunity to see a lot of really smart, uh, and energetic people do some amazing things in areas that had not yet been exploited.

Scott Sperling: (04:19)
And then for the last, uh, 26, 27 years, uh, to, uh, lead a organization like THL has been, uh, a real blessing. So it's been a very fortunate set of circumstances,

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:34)
Your portfolio, like everybody's got impacted by COVID-19. So tell us what happened, tell us what you guys did to adapt and pivot and tell us what your outlook is during this recovery. So

Scott Sperling: (04:49)
We we've been fortunate that our strategy involves identifying very specific sub sectors within three broad areas, financial services and FinTech, uh, uh, healthcare and what we call technology and business solutions that have a very strong secular growth drivers to them. And there are a lot of people out there doing similar sorts of things, of what, you know, maybe called thematic investing. We try to drill down and just become incredibly expert in a few handful of areas within those three broad sectors. And those areas again are typified by very strong, sustainable, secular growth, interesting, uh, return on invested capital characteristics and, uh, tend to be larger addressable markets. And the benefit of that during the downturn was that we didn't see as much negative impact as, um, you might see with a more broadly constructed portfolio. So we were fortunate in that regard and like many others, we have, um, significant operating capability, resonant our firm.

Scott Sperling: (05:58)
We have a team of operating experts that were able to go to the portfolio companies and help them manage through what could have been a difficult period. So, um, we were generally in a pretty good spot to start with, and as the world, um, got better pretty quickly, as we all know, uh, from a business perspective, even though it has been horrific in terms of the impact on, uh, lots and lots of, um, uh, of people, uh, both in this country and around the world from a business perspective, we saw a very significant growth return reasonably quickly, um, and are fortunate again, to be in areas, um, that are tending to be much stronger growers, uh, then, um, uh, the broad economy,

Anthony Scaramucci: (06:45)
Well, I want you to react to this. Would it be fair to say that private equity now and specifically to T H Lee is focusing more on growth areas and less sort of on what I would call unlocking synergies due to consolidation, or where do you see the vision for your firm and private equity in general, going forward from here?

Scott Sperling: (07:09)
There's definitely been a shift over the course of the last 20 years to growth the spaces. Now, our firm's heritage was always middle market growth. So it fits reasonably well with, with what we're doing, but where there is growth is different. So years ago, we were very big players in consumer and retail, and it was a great space for us. We don't find that same set of strong secular growth drivers in more traditional consumer and retail, uh, anymore. And so the shift has been to more technology-based companies that serve those markets. And I think there are a lot of firms, uh, in our industry that, that, um, have, uh, focused in on those kinds of areas. And we're always trying to look for spaces, um, where there's a dynamic of change that can lead to relatively explosive growth. Uh, so automation is a space that we've been a major player in, uh, for quite a while.

Scott Sperling: (08:06)
Um, you know, it is a space that, that plays to the, um, need of companies in the United States and around the globe to help support their, uh, existing employees take away the more mundane and labor intensive tasks that don't require high skillsets and allow their employees to focus on other areas while increasing productivity. And as we, uh, uh, are in a period where there are projected labor shortages and lots of different places, um, automation is gonna play a key role in bridging the gap between, uh, where we are today and where we might be in terms of the demand for labor that, that can't be met.

Anthony Scaramucci: (08:53)
So, you know, I'm, I'm of the theory that automation and technological innovation is always good long-term for the economy and also for the working class, because you just improve the quality of life and you scale up, it's the same reason why the horseless carriage replacing the people that had labor associated with horses, they seem to have also done better. Uh, am I right about that? Uh, should we be optimistic about the further and some automation or pessimistic?

Scott Sperling: (09:25)
I think you're exactly right about the impact of automation long-term and even in the intermediate term, because, uh, the need to increase productivity and allow employees to see their, um, compensation levels rise, and also be able to produce products or prices that do not create significant inflation can only be solved with increasing automation. And that automation, uh, takes place in lots of different spheres, certainly on the factory floor, in, uh, uh, distribution and warehouse centers. Uh, we've seen a significant bump in the amount of automation that is being utilized again, in most cases, it, it takes the place of that, uh, labor that can't be found in allows existing employees to both get higher hourly wages, as well as focus on higher value added tasks, all of which contribute to productivity, but we're also seeing automation in, uh, offices, uh, in healthcare that allow for much more productive output, uh, that again allows us to manage the cost of providing goods and services in ways, uh, that, uh, can in, uh, avoid inflationary prices as well as come up with many better solutions in areas where the automation actually provides functionality, uh, that doesn't exist or can't exist, um, uh, without it.

Scott Sperling: (10:56)
And so in healthcare, uh, automation, whether it's in, um, surgical robots or in, uh, pathology and radiology will have a significant impact on our ability to come up with better solutions for patients.

John Darcie: (11:14)
So, Scott, I want to follow up on the healthcare piece, cause that's something that we're keenly interested here at salts and at SkyBridge, we we've launched an early stage and not just biotechnology fund, but investing in earlier stages in private healthcare oriented companies. And I know it's something that you guys focus on a lot over there at THL that you mentioned a couple of examples of technology, but how has technology and private investment really accelerated a lot of these advances that we've seen in the healthcare sector coming out of the pandemic and even in the pandemic. And what part of those changes do you think are permanent, uh, that are going to come out of the pandemic? Long-term?

Scott Sperling: (11:50)
So, you know, one of the things that's really crucial, um, in healthcare, um, is, uh, the ability to reduce total medical expense, uh, of the cost of care provision while providing greater access to a patient for patients to advanced therapeutics, uh, to be able to more easily reach their, uh, primary care provider and certainly, um, high specialty care providers, um, things like tele-health the use of digital technologies is one of the obvious things that we've seen. Um, there was an explosion of growth, uh, in that during the pandemic by necessity. I think it's important, uh, that the government continues to support the utilization of those technologies, because it's the way that people want to receive, um, uh, uh, care in many circumstances. Uh, and when you look at the cost of, uh, care overall, it's really people who are, uh, uh, of tertiary or coronary acuity, the really sick patients that cost the system the most.

Scott Sperling: (13:01)
And if we get better compliance, because people can use digital and tele-health, uh, capabilities, uh, that would be a, uh, significant improvement and can hold down the overall cost of total net, uh, of the total medical expense. The other area that you're seeing a growth in science are the, uh, uh, capabilities that you see, whether it's a next generation, uh, sequencing, uh, technologies, lots of technologies that, uh, continue to be developed, uh, in ways that dramatically reduce the cost of drug development and the ability to, um, uh, again, provide therapeutics and diagnostics to patients, uh, at ever lower costs. And you're going to see opportunities, uh, in lots of different ways, um, in order to accomplish, uh, what I've just described, uh, back in the 1990s, um, we knew that science was growing. Um, we weren't sure at THL that we were that good at, at, uh, being able to predict which biotechnology company or which specific therapeutic a pharma, uh, was developing would be a winner, but we knew it was all growing.

Scott Sperling: (14:15)
And so, you know, we, we, um, decided to buy a company called Fisher scientific, which was the largest provider of stuff to the world of science, clinical research, industrial in the world. And we paid, I don't know about a billion and a half dollars for it in those days. And today Thermo Fisher, where I'm still on the board probably has a, uh, enterprise value in excess of $200 billion because it really grew. And it really grew because it brought together a set of technologies and capabilities that really met the needs of its customer base. Today, when you look at private, we're continuing to look for ways to support companies and buy companies that can help, uh, the pharma and biotech innovators do their job better and more effectively. So you've seen, uh, uh, CRS, the clinical, uh, research organizations that do a lot of the testing grow, uh, in terms of, um, revenues, profits, and, um, uh, market caps. Uh, you see a lot of other players who provide tools and capabilities, um, to both healthcare providers, but also to the developers of these, um, uh, therapeutics and diagnostics. And those are opportunities that, uh, you know, uh, really, um, have become very attractive to people in our industry. And that we've been a major player in.

John Darcie: (15:43)
Yeah, we, we had a Walter Isaacson recently on assault talk who wrote the book called the Codebreakers about Jennifer Doudna and her team that developed the CRISPR technology and continues to lead the genomics revolution. So from an investment perspective, and, and maybe it's, it's a comparable, but are you more excited about more of the, the tele-health preventative medicine type trends or more interested in some of those more moonshot oriented goals? And I know you guys are investing a lot in the infrastructure around companies that are supporting, uh, that genomics revolution, but what, what types of companies is it more the pharma biotech oriented companies that you guys get most excited about and in supporting the infrastructure around that? Or is it more of the tele-health and just the remaking of the, uh, you know, the healthcare system? I

Scott Sperling: (16:28)
Would say that we're, you know, we, when we identify these sub sectors within healthcare, um, again, our, uh, focuses on, um, things that can have that strong secular growth. And I'd say you, you've identified two areas that fall into, um, those sub sectors. And so, um, we're really, uh, uh, very active in both spaces. Um, and, you know, we're looking for ways that we can help, uh, providers of care, reduce total medical expense and reduce the cost to the entire system of providing high quality care from birth through, uh, end of life. And there are lots of different opportunities that the industry has, um, uh, been able to, uh, support, uh, in those spaces, uh, again, bringing down the cost of care while, uh, improving access for patients, um, or broadly to that care. Uh, but we're also very interested in, uh, supporting the growth of science broadly defined as it helps develop, uh, better, uh, therapeutics, better diagnostics, uh, better medical devices. And there are lots of different, uh, areas that flow into providing that in ways that allow, uh, the pharma companies and the biotech companies to focus on their most important value added, which is, um, the innovation itself, uh, of these phenomenal, um, uh, therapeutic and diagnostic, uh, drugs and, uh, capabilities.

Anthony Scaramucci: (18:12)
I want to step back, take you up to 30,000 feet for a second. And I want you to think about the next killer technology, the next killer drug. And so, you know, the invention of stat, the introduction of penicillin, the what is next on the horizon? Is it a immunotherapy that can be delivered? Is it a, is it a vaccine like the ones that Walter Isaacson was talking about? And Codebreakers what, in your mind, you sit at an interesting seat, cause you've got private companies, public companies, and you're sitting on the board of a hospital. What, what, what's the next killer app for medicine?

Scott Sperling: (18:53)
So one of the things, um, that, uh, has been great about chairing the board of the mass general bourbon, which is the largest research, uh, uh, system in the country, uh, largest recipient of NIH,

Anthony Scaramucci: (19:07)
John and I are coming to you when we get sick. There you go. I just want to make sure you know, that Scott, that's what we're, we're asking the question, we're digging it. And, and,

Scott Sperling: (19:16)
You know, also because we, you know, are, uh, so, uh, such a large provider of high-end clinical care, you can see not only the, the, the, the flow of basic science that develops in these areas, but I've just been amazed at the translation, you know, what they call the translational research. That's done taking it from those basic ideas to things that actually can work in patients, uh, and the nature of how the care has evolved. And, you know, you've, you've mentioned some key areas, um, cell and gene therapies of all sorts is going to be an enormous space. Um, the, uh, development of these vaccines, um, uh, particularly the MRN based ones, uh, that we've seen from Madonna and Pfizer. And there are a couple of other players out there working on that. Uh, you know, it's not only amazing that they were developed as quickly as they were, but perhaps even more, uh, uh, impressed.

Scott Sperling: (20:18)
I was gonna say more importantly, but I'm not sure you can say more importantly when it came to dealing with the COVID vaccines, but, you know, in terms of longer-term benefit, these are platforms that can be utilized to develop many other, uh, uh, effective vaccines and therapeutics remembering that the original target for most of the MRN, uh, pioneers was cancer. And so we're looking at ways, um, that we can utilize a range of different technologies to deal with some of the most devastating diseases that we have. And so, um, you know, there's the, uh, using the MRI and a platform to help the body, either through vaccine or effectively immunotherapies on things like cancer and a number of other, um, a number of other difficult, uh, uh, conditions. Um, then you have the ability to use other forms of immunotherapies, uh, that are continuing to evolve, uh, in ways that become more effective, uh, longer, um, by bringing cocktails of, uh, capability to bear again against cancers and potentially some other, um, uh, disease states.

Scott Sperling: (21:33)
Uh, and then you have, um, things like car T that again are breakthrough technologies, um, that are going to have a big impact on a number of the, of the most difficult, um, uh, cancers, uh, in terms of the nature of, um, of, uh, treatment, um, uh, out there. And so, you know, I'm very encouraged that the pace of innovation is going to continue to increase, and the nature of what we're innovating is going to continue to have ever greater impact on a number of, um, the most devastating, uh, uh, diseases. Now, um, one of the issues with all of this is that particularly early on the cost of these, uh, particularly therapeutics isn't incredibly high. And so, um, while I'm highly encouraged by the, um, the advent of, uh, and the accelerated, uh, introduction, uh, of, um, new therapeutics, um, you know, as a system, we also have to think about the long-term costs, not necessarily that sticker shock when somebody says, you know, that's a 250,000 or million dollar bill for that solving that particular, uh, uh, disease. Um, and, you know, we saw that with, um, with Hep-C, for example,

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:58)
No, it's fascinating. I want to, I want to shift gears for a second. What I love about th Lee and your work is you're keeping us healthy, and then you're also making us rich through financial services. And so I, now I want to, I want to, now I want to put that hat on for a second, and I want you to talk about the future of financial services. Uh, Jamie diamond recently says, he's worried about Neo banking. He's worried about the FinTech space, uh, you know, the costs associated with FinTech relative to the old school bricks and mortar. Uh, they sort of feel like they're getting assaulted the way book polishing did as an example or other, uh, industries, uh, where do you see financial services going? Where's the puck going? And where's th Lee going to be.

Scott Sperling: (23:44)
So, um, I bring into a couple of different areas. Um, the first is the, um, application of technology, um, uh, you know, the so-called FinTech, um, in many of the traditional banking, um, mortgage servicing mortgage origination spaces. And, you know, as you know, we've been involved, it's publicly known and a number of the leading companies in that space, whether it's FIS, fidelity, national information services, or, uh, black Knight financial and a number of others. Um, and, um, you know, these are companies that, uh, provide, um, uh, a set of services broadly to the industry, um, uh, through, uh, FinTech platforms, uh, that even people like Jamie use because they, um, uh, can do it, uh, uh, at a much lower cost, uh, with greater functionality. And, and you have a number of companies out there, uh, in the industry, you know, these are now large, publicly traded companies that, um, you know, continue to grow reasonably rapidly.

Scott Sperling: (24:54)
Um, you then have other spaces that, uh, have not had that form of technology brought to bear on the value chain as much. I think in insurance, there are lots of opportunities in the insurance industry when you look at that, uh, very in, uh, uh, uh, involved at any evolving, uh, value chain, uh, where you have underwriters and, uh, agents and lots of people in between where you can increase the efficiency and delivery of the service, uh, to both customers, uh, and to, uh, all of the players along that value chain. And so I think there's going to be a lot of opportunities there. You know, you were talking about wealth management, and obviously we've seen evolution, uh, in the wealth management space, somewhat due to regulatory changes, uh, somewhat due to the ability, again, to utilize technology in ways that remove administrative costs and burden from, uh, wealth advisors, uh, and allow them to focus again on the highest value added part of what they do.

Scott Sperling: (26:00)
So I think you're going to continue to see a lot of opportunity, um, in, uh, the financial services sector, uh, to apply technology, uh, all along the various value chains and in ways that, um, uh, you know, will improve, uh, the performance, uh, and delivery of services, uh, to customers and clients. Um, you know, at the same time, you have a lot of other things going on, uh, particularly in the, uh, digital currency world, um, that I'm not sure we've gotten our arms around. Uh, yet I note the commentary from, uh, uh, coming out of the Berkshire annual meeting, um, about, uh, Bitcoin being one of the worst things that ever happened. And, uh, lots of comments about

Anthony Scaramucci: (26:48)
Dosing. It seemed a little angry. I mean, I just, I mean, you know, I, I actually don't know enough just saying Scott. I mean, you know, you know, uh, Charlie Munger wrote a book, poor Charlie's Almanac. He thinks he's reincarnated from Ben Franklin. And in the book, he says, be dispassionate about your investing, but he seems upset about Bitcoin, you know, sort of, sort of, you know, I don't know, but we'll, we'll, we'll, we'll see who's right. There'll be a big tug of war. I'm going to turn it over to John Dorsey, U S questions from our audience, which he's collected. But I want to ask you this question, and I want you to put your evaluation hat on. Um, things seem pretty rich. I mean, now we both know that interest rates are the financial, they're the physical gravity of financial assets. So they're at zero they're propelling assets higher. Uh, but in your expertise, your decades of doing this, um, are they, are the valuations too high? Did they give you pause? Did they give you pause in financial services? I've been in financial services for 30 years, 33 to be exact, I've never seen valuations like this, so are we okay here? Or are you aware?

Scott Sperling: (27:58)
I, you know, I'm always worried, uh, and I've been worried, you know, for six years, I've thought were within a couple of years of

Anthony Scaramucci: (28:05)
A recession, I'm going to call you out on that. You don't really, you're not really that worried Sperling because you would have lost your hair a long time ago. Okay. You can tell that John and I are not that worried, but the truth is that valuations are, are, I mean, I don't know, they seem stratosphere.

Scott Sperling: (28:24)
Yeah. So, you know, we've seen continued increase in valuation now. Um, you know, I would say that in our view, in my view value, valuations need to be tethered on two things. One is what is a sustainable growth rate, and there are lots of businesses in the market has clearly shifted in terms of the, the, uh, proportion of market cap in companies that are growing reasonably fast versus, you know, the slower growing more industrial kind of companies that have had historically made up a larger percentage of the market cap. And so when you look overall, you know, if you can anchor, um, uh, uh, a multiple against first and foremost against sustainable growth rates, you know, that's probably analytically, what, what makes sense? Um, and, uh, it's certainly the case that, um, you know, we have lots of potential fast-growing opportunities in the stock market today.

Scott Sperling: (29:25)
Uh, but it's also true that there are lots of things that are getting valued, uh, well above what would be justified analytically by, uh, true sustainable growth rates. So you have to worry a bit about that. And the second is clearly interest rates because everything has to be tethered to some form of, uh, of, uh, dis uh, discount rate, uh, which, you know, we have been in low, longer than anybody had ever expected. Um, one of the potentially worrisome aspects about, um, the direction that our, um, fiscal policy is going, um, is that, um, you know, that might change, uh, the, uh, interest rate formulation in ways, um, that are, uh, somewhat unpredictable. Um, you know, we all like to believe we can manage the soft landings, uh, as they used to say, or we can manage to a two to two and a half percent inflation rate.

Scott Sperling: (30:22)
Uh, but it's not clear. I mean, I, I have the unfortunate history of, uh, having lived through, uh, in my business career, I think six recessions, and they're all always, you're, you're always taken by surprise, uh, by how bad they can be. Uh, and there is a point in the recession where you're always taken by surprise about how good it could be on, on the way out. We're, um, certainly in that point where, you know, we'd like to believe we can manage any negative that happens including potentially inflation and keep it under control. Um, and I hope that's the case, but, um, you know, one needs to be a little bit wary, I think given, uh, uh, we're in somewhat unprecedented territory here, uh, in terms of, um, fiscal, um, uh, stimulus, uh, um, all of this goes through, um, and, um, you know, we're, we're already seeing, uh, enormous inflation at the basic and intermediate goods level. Um, and, um, that eventually is going to get passed through to, um, uh, to consumers.

Anthony Scaramucci: (31:39)
I'm gonna turn it over to Darcie, but I promise you this, when you turn 97 Sperling, I'm going to be asking you the steri same question. I just want to see how emotional you're going to be when you're 97. And you're a great, great grandfather, man, if I can get to a right now, you use very dispassionate. I was impressed with your very dispassionate analysis, but go ahead, Mr. Dorsey, well,

John Darcie: (32:02)
Using all those advanced therapeutics that, uh, Scott is helping to unlock their, his investing. I think he has a good chance to live to 97 and beyond. And also it looks like he's in great shape. He's taken care of himself. Let's pray. I was born in October of

Scott Sperling: (32:18)
My entire career, the prayer,

John Darcie: (32:21)
Amen. Most important thing. I mean, I was born in October of 1987. So I like to think worrying about financial markets is somehow ingrained in my DNA, given the timing of my birth around that crash. But I want to go back to Bitcoin for a second because, you know, it's something that

Anthony Scaramucci: (32:35)
He just, he just attacked you and me, right? Because Scott know exactly where you were on the 87 crash as DUI. This guy was like in a neonatal facility that was literally a karate that was like he's in the center box on the zoom call. That was like taking a karate chop at both of us at the same time. Go ahead. Dorsey. So definitely so nicely. Come on. I'm on the ground bleeding. Okay. Scott's pamphlets setting. Now, go ahead, Doris.

John Darcie: (33:02)
So, so back in millennial mode, I want to ask you about Bitcoin Scott and you indicated that, that you don't necessarily have huge depth of knowledge in the area. And I think a lot of people have been on a crash course to learn more about it over the last year. And you've seen people like Jamie diamond that Anthony referenced earlier across David Solomon, you named every big bank. CEO has been forced to go from, you know, dismissing this technology to saying so many people are asking for it. We have to figure out what our approach is as a company to delivering these solutions to clients. You mentioned FIS as an investment of yours. They partnered recently with one of our, uh, close friends and partners, NY dig, uh, to basically they're, they're bringing the ability for traditional banks to offer a digital asset integration into their core, uh, custodial offering. So as a firm, what do you guys think about this massive rise that we've seen in Bitcoin most recently, Ethereum and smart contracts have been exploding, uh, at even a faster rate than Bitcoin. What do you guys make of, of the digital asset ecosystem as a firm? And do you think you'll ever make investments into that space or you'll focus more tangentially on firms like FIS that are powering the infrastructure in the same way that you're investing in infrastructure around the biotechnology and pharmaceutical boom.

Scott Sperling: (34:14)
I, I think, uh, the quick answer to your last question is we will focus on the infrastructure pieces. And again, you know, partly because I just don't think we're always smart enough to pick specific winners in some of these other kinds of areas, but, uh, you know, by serving everyone, you, you actually can participate in what is a strong area of dramatic growth. Um, you know, it, again, it, uh, blockchain technology is definitely an important technology and that has application that goes well beyond Bitcoin or any other digital currency. I, uh, you know, I think people wonder about digital currencies because we haven't seen anything like it in the sense that, you know, we're used to sovereigns having control of currency and sovereign does not have control. And, um, when it doesn't have control of, uh, of a currency, um, there are lots of potential, I guess I would call them unintended consequences that can occur.

Scott Sperling: (35:22)
Um, and, um, we've already seen a couple of countries, Turkey, India, for example, basically say, we're going to outlaw this because we can't have that. That is, uh, undercutting our ability to manage, uh, the monetary policy at the very least our economy and maybe, you know, um, beyond. Um, and so I, you know, I wonder at some point, will we have unlimited digital currencies that are posing as alternatives to our sovereign currency. Now that's particularly important for the United States because as you know, one of the reasons we're able to do what, what we can do in terms of borrowing is that we are, uh, the reserve currency of the world. Um, and that's a position that is already going to be under challenged by the Chinese. And I think the European union and they meet, and they, um, will use their own digital technologies, um, in ways that allow them to challenge the status of the United States as the only true reserve currency right now.

Scott Sperling: (36:26)
And so I think we have to watch that carefully, but, um, as Bitcoin becomes more important and, um, it is more important to control, um, the data flow of who owns it and how they're transacting. It may change the underlying value of that. Or perhaps, you know, there is a stroke of the pen risk that says it just has to go away. Certainly when you go to, you know, the, the ones that you know is, um, um, many people have commented on like doge coin, where there is, there is no limit on supply, it was done as a joke, you know, you just wonder, are we in tulip bulb territory with things like that? So, um, you know, again, I'm, I'm, I'm speaking, uh, but I don't know enough to be, uh, to be relied upon on any of those. I'm just raising some of the issues that would occur when you have this kind of situation. Uh, uh, generally, so maybe

John Darcie: (37:25)
That's what Charlie Munger should have said at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, um, and had been a little bit more dispassionate about it, but it's a conversation for another day. So we've talked about some sectors that you're very enthusiastic about things in the healthcare space, certain areas of financial services, automation. Generally, there's been an explosion in, in tons of different asset classes, mostly focused on technology, frankly, but, uh, some that, you know, there's some suspicion from wary investors that, uh, the current rate of growth is not sustainable and that there there's pockets of the market. And we've already seen sort of steep pullbacks and even a lot of public companies that exploded, uh, during the pandemic. But are there any specific sectors or sub-sectors that you're most concerned about that, that as an investor you've come across deals and said, this makes absolutely no sense. And if I, if I could add a mechanism to do it, I would be short this sector. What areas are you most concerned about or skeptical

Scott Sperling: (38:16)
About, uh, you know, the pressure, uh, on, uh, the industrial sector given, again, the move in Rama to the pricing of raw materials and intermediate goods is something that, you know, I, I, I know it's becoming a popular play in the markets now, as we see a return to normalcy from the pandemic, because those areas were most adversely affected. Um, but I, I think it's, it's worth watching what happens to the cost structure and the ability to sustain, um, strong margin, uh, in those areas. Uh, the, uh, you know, again, I, I think, uh, looking at the impact, uh, on their margins because of the increasing, in fact, in many cases, dramatically increase cost of raw materials and intermediate goods, but, you know, offsetting that is the more rapid adoption of automation and software tools that actually reduce overall system, uh, cost in sometimes dramatic ways.

John Darcie: (39:23)
So the last question I have for you is I think people look at the returns for a middle market PE firm and say, man, that looks like fun to, to invest like that and achieve that level of returns, but there's so much operational expertise that goes into the execution of a lot of these business turnarounds and growth investments that you guys make. How important is that and what type of value do you guys offer as investors on an operating capacity to companies that you invest in?

Scott Sperling: (39:49)
So, you know, and we've talked a lot about this publicly over time. Uh, but, um, our strategy has been to be able to provide a significant level of operating expertise that's particularly valuable to middle market companies. And, um, you know, there are a number of, uh, of folks in private equity, um, who are oriented in the same way, um, of being able to provide operating experts onsite at companies in ways that, um, allow us to improve the key business processes of these companies. And we have found that, that, you know, particularly in the world of, of, um, of, uh, rising prices and multiples that that is a very important driver of value. Um, and I think for the industry, uh, the private equity industry, uh, it's an important value added that we bring to the economy. Now, there are some firms that will focus on, um, not growth companies, but areas where there are significant headwinds, uh, and in order to, um, uh, to help reposition companies, whether they're retailers, bricks, and mortar retailers, or other, um, uh, maybe older, uh, industrial type companies, you know, they'll bring their own expertise to bear in those areas.

Scott Sperling: (41:04)
Um, ours is in helping more, uh, rapidly growing companies really be able to, uh, sustain and in fact, increase their growth rates in ways that are sustainable over the longterm.

John Darcie: (41:17)
Right. And, uh, you know, I think a lot of people that aren't as familiar with the industry, they, they hear the word private equity, and they think of Gordon gecko, but you guys are truly, you know, helping to spur innovation and growth, uh, in a way that, that doesn't fit with necessarily some people's archetype of what a private, private equity looks like. So

Scott Sperling: (41:35)
We don't always get it right. Uh, and, um, you know, particularly as you're, uh, you may try to help transform an old economy company into a new one. You know, there been lots of challenges, um, but there's really nobody else stepping up to try to do those things. Um, so, um, you know, I think the industry overall, uh, you know, is, um, trying to, uh, provide value, uh, in ways that are not otherwise available to a broad set of companies that, um, in this very dynamic world are perhaps have been on the wrong side of technological change in innovation, uh, but still have, um, lots of employees and lots of reasons to, um, uh, try to survive. And, uh, and in fact thrive

John Darcie: (42:23)
Well, Scott, congratulations on all the work you guys are doing and all the success you've had. Thanks so much for joining us here on salt talks. Anthony, do you have any final word for Scott before we let him? No.

Anthony Scaramucci: (42:31)
Listen, it's a, it's a pleasure to hear you talk. I'm, uh, I'm coming to you when I get sick. I'm coming to you. What I need to read for a long time. Hopefully not for a lot of them. It comes to you when I re re need to reinvent my financial services business. Uh, you're sort of stuck with us now. Okay. It's too bad. All right. All right. Well, we appreciate it. It was good to have you on and duct. I found the conversation. Fascinating. Thank you again, Scott.

Scott Sperling: (42:58)
Thanks so much. Take care. Thank

John Darcie: (43:00)
You everybody for tuning into today's salt. Talk with Scott Sperling of Thomas H. Lee partners. Just a reminder, if you missed any part of this talk or any of our previous salt talks, you can access them all on our website@sault.org backslash talks or on our YouTube channel, which is called salt tube. We're on social media. Please follow us. If you're on the various channels, Twitter is where we're most active at salt conference is our handle. We're also on LinkedIn, Instagram, and Facebook. And please spread the word about these salt talks. We love educating a broader audience of people, as opposed to just being able to speak to 2000 plus people at our annual conferences that we do in the U S and abroad. Uh, we've really enjoyed this salt talk series. So please spread the word. And on behalf of Anthony and the entire salt team, this is John Darcie signing off from salt talks for today. We hope to see you back here again. So.

Gabriel Radzyminski: Activist Investing | SALT Talks #197

“Activist investing is about being an active owner in the companies you invest in, more than just a buyer of shares and you are prepared to try and do things that improve the outcomes. “

Gabriel Radzyminski is the founder and managing director of Sandon Capital, an Australian firm that specializes in activist investing.

Being an activist investor is about being more than just simply an owner of shares. This means being active in a company’s performance and outcomes. Australian firms can have a reputation for being forgiving of underperformance in part because of the country’s smaller population and even smaller financial community. This has brought about a need for a greater emphasis to be placed on activist investing that holds company’s performance to stricter account. “Inertia is one of the biggest challenges we face as an activist investor. The status quo is what we confront.”

Australia has financial laws and regulations conducive to a healthy investing ecosystem. This presents an opportunity for the growth of activist investing in Australia.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Gabriel Radzyminski.jpeg

Gabriel Radzyminski

Managing Director

Sandon Capital

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

Rachel Pether: (00:07)
Everyone. And welcome back to salt talks. My name is Rachel Pether, and I'm a senior advisor to SkyBridge capital based in Abu Dhabi, as well as being the MC for salt, a thought leadership forum and networking platform that encompasses business technology and politics. Salt talks as a series of digital events that we launched during the work from home period. And just as we do at our physical salt events, we aim to provide our audience a window into the mind of subject matter experts. Today, we'll be focusing on activist investing and I'm very excited to be speaking to Gabriel Redmond ski, the founder, and managing director of Sandra and capital and Australian firms specializing in activist. Investing Gabriel has been involved in the financial services sector for more than 20 years, and he has significant investment experience across a range of asset classes. He serves as the executive director of mercantile investment company. And as a non-executive director of future generation investment company, he has a BA in honors and a masters of commerce from the university of new south Wales. Gabriel, welcome to Salta.

Gabriel Radzyminski: (01:20)
Thank you, Rachel. Good to be here.

Rachel Pether: (01:23)
No, I profusely summarized your biography there. So maybe we could start by telling me a bit about yourself and your background.

Gabriel Radzyminski: (01:32)
Uh, okay. That's a good place to start. So I founded San and capital, uh, nearly 12 years ago. Um, before that I'd worked, uh, for quite some time in a, a larger organization with, uh, private wealth management and funds management. And I ran the funds management business there. Um, that sort of was what led me to start sanding capital and particularly, uh, uh, down the path of activist investing. Um, there were a few investments that we'd made, uh, over time and, uh, you know, as much as I'd like to forget about the bad ones, not everything always went to plan. And what I found was that when we looked through, I developed the habit of always going through a post-mortem to work out, you know, what went well, what didn't go well, where we, right, where were we wrong? Or did we simply encounter bad luck?

Gabriel Radzyminski: (02:17)
And what we found was that there were some investments where had things been done differently. We may have experienced very different outcomes. And for me, that was the beginning of the evolution into being an activist investor. Um, I also very quickly found that, uh, working in a firm with other objectives simply didn't work, uh, with activism. Um, I was very quickly tapped on the shoulder and told, but you know, that's not what we do here. Um, we don't want to upset, uh, relationships we might have. Um, and that was the impetus for getting out and starting saving camp. Um, and so we've been at it ever since. And

Rachel Pether: (02:54)
So I'd love to dive a bit deeper into sort of this pushback that you had in your previous company and maybe how that relates to some of the cultural idiosyncrasies in Australia, but maybe we just take a step back and for the benefit of those in the audience that don't know much about activist investing, how do you, how do you describe it?

Gabriel Radzyminski: (03:15)
Look, I think activist investing, uh, you know, has certain connotations. I think the way I would describe it at its core, it's about being an active owner of the companies that you invest in. Um, it's about trying to be more than just a buyer of shares, a buyer of interests ticking up and down on a screen on any given day. Um, and being an active owner means that you are interested in what the company is doing, of course, but that you're also prepared to do and try and do things to improve the outcomes, to improve the, the, the experience of being an owner of those companies. Um, it's about being more than just an owner of a piece of paper owning part of the business. Obviously it's a proportional ownership because we're invested in listed, uh, entities. Um, but we do believe it's fundamentally about being an active owner, uh, you know, labels need to be applied. And the label that is applied to those active owners is typically that of activist investor.

Rachel Pether: (04:16)
And so when you look at the us market, for example, there are quite a few large well-established activist investments firms who have got Elliot. I can capital a downloads third point, but you're one of the only activist investing firms in Australia. Why do you think it's not so well known or practiced in the region?

Gabriel Radzyminski: (04:38)
Look, I think there's a couple of aspects to it. There is some culturally there's some cultural issues and there's also an evolutionary, uh, aspect, um, touch on the evolutionary aspect first. Uh, you know, we did some work a little, a couple of years back, um, with Jeff Graham, who's a U S hedge fund manager, best known for writing the book dear chairman, which was an anthology of what Jeff, uh, considered to be the, the, the best activist, uh, letters, uh, in us history. Um, and what we found was that activism evolved in America, largely started with Ben Graham and evolved over the years into what it is we know today, um, went through the, the, you know, the, the path of the corporate writers, um, and then evolved into what we know today in Australia. We're probably 20, 30 years behind the U S in that evolutionary process.

Gabriel Radzyminski: (05:33)
Part of it is about understanding what you can achieve being an active owner, being an activist. Um, but then we've also got the cultural aspects. Um, I don't know for those who don't really know Australia, it's a great place to live. It's a great place to work. Um, but sometimes that can be, uh, at odds with what you expect from the companies you invest in. Um, there's a great, uh, Australian idiom, uh, that's, uh, often used, I don't know if it's even used in a crocodile Dundee movie, but, uh, she'll be right. Uh, which is to say, you know, don't worry, things will get better. And I think that can be one of the problems in pushing to get the best of your companies pushing for the best outcomes. Um, investors here, I find tend to be, uh, quite forgiving. Um, the worst they'll often do is simply sell out of the shares. Um, they'll give them up because it's all too hard and move on to something else. Um, we think that, you know, being an owner has responsibilities, um, and we do look to try and maximize and get the best outcomes for ourselves, of course, but also for other shareholders. So there is that cultural aspect where we have a quite relaxed, uh, attitude to, uh, uh, ownership and the, uh, particularly the issues of underperformance.

Rachel Pether: (06:47)
And so then taking all these factors into account, how are you viewed in the ecosystem? You know, I'm, I'm someone from who's from New Zealand originally. So I appreciate it. It's, you know, one or two degrees of separation with almost anyone in the entire country, specifically when you're looking at, say the investment landscape. So how are you viewed in this regard?

Gabriel Radzyminski: (07:10)
I think you've hit on one of the key problems here. Rachel is we're a small country, you know, we've got 27, 20 8 million people, the business community, the investment community are an even smaller microcosm. And it means that most people and you quoted some figures, most people here in those fields know each other within three, quite possibly two degrees of separation. And so you've got the human issues, you know, the, the people issues about confront confrontation about taking companies to task. And I think that's part of the aspect is that when everyone knows each other or when everyone knows someone who knows someone, there's a reluctance to really ever truly sanction, uh, accompany football performance, um, I think one of the things to, uh, always think about is, you know, directors aren't necessarily setting out to do badly. Um, they're not setting out to do bad by shareholders and investors, but often it happens. And part of it is simply that they're human. Um, I think the, for the system to work well for the, the, the market, the ecosystem to work best, you need effective boards who oversee management effectively, but you also need effective shareholders to oversee boards and management as well. And

Rachel Pether: (08:24)
I think that's a great point, which ties back to where perhaps Australia is in this evolution. I was listening to a great podcast of was Peter teal, unlocking impact. He was talking about the education system, which, which is slightly different, but he was saying that many people don't take action because they don't even realize there's another alternative. So there's a sort of inertia and just staying with the status quo

Gabriel Radzyminski: (08:50)
And look, you're, you're sort of taking my buzzwords out of the presentation, but inertia is one of the biggest challenges that we face as an activist. The status quo is what we confront, um, you know, died for a moment. Think that Australia is a terrible country with lots of, uh, uh, you know, where the majority of corporations are underperforming and delivering, uh, poor shareholder outcomes. It's not true. The vast majority are functioning well. Um, otherwise we'd be a country going backwards. Um, but where they don't work, often, people are simply, you know, like deer deer in the headlights. They'd rather do nothing either because they don't know what to do. Or they're scared that if they suggest an alternative and it doesn't work, they might be held accountable. We agree. You know, if you, if you suggest an alternative, you should be held accountable, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't do it.

Gabriel Radzyminski: (09:44)
I think it's also worth touching on the fact that for most institutional investors, they simply don't have the bandwidth to devote the amount of time necessary to engage actively with the companies they invest in. Um, you know, most investors I'm generalizing grossly here, but, you know, they might have 50 to 150 positions in a portfolio. We tend to have very concentrated portfolios. For example, at the moment in most of our portfolios, our top five holdings represent nearly 50% or more of each of the funds we manage. So we're very heavily invested in the companies that we buy into and the companies into which we engage. We do deep research where we're really all in, as opposed to just sitting back and sort of indifferent to what the actual outcome might be.

Rachel Pether: (10:35)
And when you look at these top five companies that make up, uh, around half of the portfolio, are they do they tend to be in a certain sector or area of the economy? No,

Gabriel Radzyminski: (10:46)
Look where we're broad. And, uh, and you know, we brought in our focus, um, we'll invest, or we are able to invest in anything. We won't invest in just anything, but we're broad. So, you know, we're, we're a value investor at our core. So obviously it has to have for us some value characteristics. We do need to feel that we're buying something for, you know, pennies on the dollar, or at least a, a reasonable discount to what we believe the intrinsic value of the company might be. But we also then need to see that there is a way that we might be able to influence the status quo, that we might be able to overcome the inertia of today to get a better outcome tomorrow.

Rachel Pether: (11:29)
And it does pay, pay me to say this as a new Zealander, but yes, there are definitely a lot of great things about Australia. And I know that when you look at the sort of focus areas for your investments, you typically look at the common law areas. So say Australia, New Zealand and the UK, maybe you could talk me through why you focus on these specific, is it sort of regulatory related or what, what are the reasons for that?

Gabriel Radzyminski: (11:58)
Look, there's, there's a number of reasons. Um, what I've come to conclude over the years is that activism is a very parochial endeavor. Um, a lot of your, a lot of your edge, a lot of the skills that you develop, come from understanding the local laws and customs, as well as the local laws and regulations. Um, one of the small ironies, uh, or not so small ironies of Australia and activism is that despite the fact that not many people do it, and it's not widely understood down here, we've actually got some of the most conducive, legal and regulatory frameworks for shareholder rights anywhere in the world. Um, so maybe it's a case that because we have those rights, we don't need to, uh, challenge them too often, but we do have, you know, for example, we don't have, uh, poison pills. Um, we don't have staggered boards.

Gabriel Radzyminski: (12:49)
Shareholders can, you know, with the requisite majority or the requisite, uh, uh, percentage holdings in the company's shareholders can easily call general meetings, nominate directors put forward resolutions to remove directors and put forward other resolutions. So we've actually got a good framework within which to operate. Um, it is largely influenced by the UK legal system, as you said, the common law system, um, as are the regulatory aspects. Um, you know, for example, in control transactions way governed here by takeovers panel, um, which tries to get controlled disputes out of the court system. Um, so it means that activism here can be conducted quite cost-effectively, um, in all the years that we've been doing it. So we've been running this fund, the strategy for, uh, more than 11 years now, we've never actually had to go to court. Um, and we've only really come close to going to court once. Um, and in the end we didn't have to, because, you know, things worked out that, you know, we'd pushed far enough that there was no need to, but, uh, I think that's a contrast that we like is that ultimately, uh, activism here is something that is ultimately determined in the court of shareholder opinion. So if we can persuade enough shareholders of the merits of what we're proposing, the boards will ultimately bend to the will of those shareholders. No,

Rachel Pether: (14:17)
I guess an activism going through a illegal battle is always really the means of last resort. Isn't it? It's not something that they sit out,

Gabriel Radzyminski: (14:28)
Sorry, sorry to interrupt. Um, absolutely. And also, I think in Australia, in particular, if you have to resort to legal action, it means that you really haven't been able to persuade enough investors to back your particular course of action.

Rachel Pether: (14:44)
Yeah. And those are the guys you don't want to see on the school run.

Gabriel Radzyminski: (14:48)
Absolutely. Oh, look, that's, you know, that's I long ago gave up on, um, it was pointed out to me once that, uh, you certainly don't pick this kind of investing to make friends.

Rachel Pether: (14:59)
No, you do it to create good returns and long-term better companies.

Gabriel Radzyminski: (15:03)
We've got very, very happy investors.

Rachel Pether: (15:07)
And so just a few look at the macro economic picture for activist and investing now and given sort of Australia's expansion has slowed down record breaking expansion has slowed down in the last few years, are using this create more or less opportunities for you, or is it a bit of a neutral outcome? Um,

Gabriel Radzyminski: (15:28)
Look, I think overall it's a moderately positive. Um, I think it's worth noting that, uh, you know, Australia had a, you know, an unprecedented really long, uh, economic expansion. Um, it was only really stopped by uh COVID. Um, and since, uh, since the, the, the depths of the crisis, certainly here in Australia, um, we've picked up the economy has done particularly, uh, uh, well obviously some sectors have done poorly, particularly tourism and travel. Um, but overall it seems that economic activity has picked up. We seem to have, you know, being an island nation, um, we seem to have dodged the worst of COVID. Um, and frankly at the beach, you know, in, in the depths of last year, sort of February, March, April, and intimate, um, you know, early on the government, the prime minister had, uh, encouraged everyone to play for team Australia. Uh, we took that to heart in that we decided that the focus for us was on our company's survival.

Gabriel Radzyminski: (16:27)
So we went through a process of assessing the companies in our portfolio and whether they were likely to survive, what were the scenarios that they might face, and if they needed more capital, would we put more in, fortunately we, you know, we're, we're very, uh, w we were fortunate that we didn't really have much trouble in our portfolio. We're very heavily exposed to the industrial economy. Um, but we also decided that we would just keep our heads down for a few months and not really criticize anyone. Um, we were very, we're more supportive than we've ever been of all of our companies by spy sort of August, September when we realized that the, um, COVID crisis was rapidly, uh, being overcome in Australia. That's when we ramped up again. And so there was a couple of engagements that we re reactivated re-engaged with, uh, towards the end of last year that came to fruition. Um, they were largely in private, but we worked, you know, we pushed really hard because we felt that there were a lot of companies that were going to use COVID as excuses for poor results. Not all of them were justified in doing so.

Rachel Pether: (17:33)
Right. Yeah. Easy thing to point to, if maybe your results have fallen short of expectations, and the question for you, Gabriel, I know that some of the activist investor firms have been sort of caught up somehow, and let's say the Reddit crowd and the Robin hood traders, does that retail market, is that so prevalent in Australia? And has that sort of trading from sort of mass retail investors had much of an impact on the market? Well,

Gabriel Radzyminski: (18:04)
Not, not in the same way. Um, you know, the, I'm not an expert in that area, but I, you know, obviously I've read about what was happening in the U S with, uh, GameStop, all the, all the re the Robin hood, uh, investing. Um, it doesn't seem to be as prevalent here. Um, you know, there's, there's stock promotion that goes on here. Um, we don't have, for example, as I understand it, there was a fascinating interplay in game stock between, you know, the physical market, the day traders, but, you know, private investors and the options market, you know, our options market here is nowhere near as liquid or deep as the market in the U S so I don't know that we have the same circumstances. Um, I'd also, uh, uh, uh, highlight the fact that, for example, for us, um, we're not, w you know, we do short, we are a little bit short, but it's, for us more on the periphery. It's a hedging exercise. We do have a few alpha shorts from time to time. But for example, at the moment, we've just got a, you know, a small, short exposure, uh, to an index, which hedges out one of our, uh, closed end fund, uh, exposures. Um, so look, it, it's not really something that we see in, uh, in our neck of the woods. And

Rachel Pether: (19:18)
I would love to sort of ask it, or go into a little bit more further detail on how you see the outlook for the Australia market, but I'll be interested in that book that you referenced, dear chairman, the letters from activist investors, what were some of the examples of the letters in that book? Like, was it a cherry picking of some of the most, I guess, uh, persuasive sort of letters or, yeah, Jeff

Gabriel Radzyminski: (19:47)
Looked at the whole space, uh, in the U S and he pulled together a series of what he considered to be some of the, you know, the landmark letters. I mean, it starts off with, uh, Ben Graham and I think finishes off, uh, with, and I've actually just got the book in front of me. I'm not doing a plug for Jeff, but, um, I think the last one is either Dan Loeb. Yeah. So he covers them all. I mean, he's got bill Ackman, uh, you know, Carl Icahn, uh, Ross Perot. Um, so it gives, it gives a progression of activists, newsletter of activist letters over, uh, you know, effectively the last 90 years or so.

Rachel Pether: (20:27)
Hmm. But that sounds, it sounds very interesting. It sounds like it would be, and again, not a plug for the specific book, but it sounds like that would be quite an interesting read for people. Right.

Gabriel Radzyminski: (20:37)
Get anyone who's interested in this kind of investing, uh, should read it. Um, I think anyone who's interested in activist investing, uh, should probably go back if you want to the Genesis and I'd rate that as being, uh, uh, uh, a good way of getting to that Genesis of activist investing is to read, um, Ben Grames, uh, letters that he wrote for Forbes magazine in 1932. So he wrote a series of three articles, um, which basically asks the, you know, sort of highlights the issue of ownership management returns. Um, you know, it's well worth reading those, uh, those Forbes articles they're nearly 90 years old, but they're frankly still current today. I was just

Rachel Pether: (21:25)
About to say, it's so impressive that something that was written almost a century ago can still be used as a learning reference point in today's markets, given how quickly markets change.

Gabriel Radzyminski: (21:37)
We would say that good ideas are good ideas. Exactly.

Rachel Pether: (21:41)
And so just coming back to Australia for a moment, given the points that you've made about where you are in the evolution and the macro economic environment, where do you see activist investing heading in Australia in the medium to long-term

Gabriel Radzyminski: (21:58)
Look, I think it will continue to evolve. Um, you know, at the moment, for example, there is so taking a step back on our regulatory framework, uh, a number of years ago, they introduced some laws on executive remuneration, um, where companies can get, uh, you know, have to put a nonbinding vote to the shareholders at every annual meeting. Um, and if you get a number of strikes against you, uh, it can cause a spill motion. Um, that's, that's emboldened a lot of institutional investors to feel as though they can be activists by voting against remuneration reports. Now it's a great tool, but remunerations on any one aspect of what the activist investor looks at, um, for us, we're more focused on w we don't underestimate the impact of remuneration, but frankly, in terms of value destruction, there is far more value destroyed through errors of omission and commission in strategy and execution.

Gabriel Radzyminski: (22:56)
Then there will ever be paid in exist in excessive executive remuneration. Um, so we can see the landscape evolving. We know from discussions we have with, uh, large investors and allocators that they know there is that opportunity. They know that there are problems that need solving. They simply haven't quite gotten around to working out how to do it. And we can't simply say that Australia will evolve in the same way the us has, will evolve in our own way and we'll develop our own, you know, activist ecosystem. Um, but I think ultimately it will continue to, uh, uh, in, in improve and increase. I think, uh, someone asked us once how we could ensure that there was a persistence of opportunities for our, uh, investment approach. And my response was simply not to be a glib was to say, as long as people are running companies, there'll be opportunities for people like us.

Rachel Pether: (23:51)
Yup. Absolutely. And back to your remuneration point, you could also argue and pardon the slang paper, that's getting monkeys. So if you do want to have a company stared on a good strategy, you often do need to pay for someone or people to, to lead that charge.

Gabriel Radzyminski: (24:09)
Yeah, I think I agree. I think it's also, uh, important, you know, again, as a value investor, we think deeply about the value of things and the remuneration discussion is more often than not thought of simply in absolute dollar terms and not value for money. Um, that's how we look at it. We think it's a, it's, it, it is a complex and nuanced, uh, debate and discussion that is far too often reduce to me envy, you know, you're paid more than me and I don't think that's fair. You can't invest on that basis. Um, there are some people who are paid large amounts of money and have performed well and where we would say there is value for money as an owner. In those, in that management team, there are other companies where they're not paid particularly well. Um, the value is poor and, you know, we think that the, the, the owners are getting very poor value for money there. So it's not just about absolute dollar terms or, uh, uh, you know what, yeah, it's a nuanced conversation. Um,

Rachel Pether: (25:18)
And you know, you raised a great point there about the, the envy aspect of it. When I think of activist investing, there's so many interesting aspects of behavioral finance and personal biases that come into this as well. Right. You must be very good at, well, I guess, acknowledging these biases and then actually working proactively to not-for-profit.

Gabriel Radzyminski: (25:42)
Yeah. And I think one of the things that we've learned over the years that is a huge advantage, and it is actually really important when you, you know, when you want to be an activist investor, when you do it is you've actually got to have a huge, a huge capacity for empathy. Now, I don't mean that you feel sorry for everyone, and you want to give them a hug, but empathy. And then the, the, the, the, the most basic sense of the term, which is to understand where the other person is coming from, you know, we try and understand what is motivating our counterpart, uh, in a discussion, what might be motivating an entire management team or a board, you know, individual directors. Uh, we try and think about what their motives might be for going down one path versus another. Um, and I think that's really a powerful tool that you can use, you know, to ultimately to the shareholders' benefit is bringing that empathy, to understand what people, you know, why a company is doing a particular falling in particular course, you know, rare is it that the company is doing something because they're just bad people.

Gabriel Radzyminski: (26:50)
There's usually some reason behind it. Um, and we try and understand that because when we understand it, it helps us to counter it. It helps us to persuade. Um, the other thing that we do is the bulk of our efforts are typically focused on other shareholders. So when we engage with a company, we always start by attempting a private bilateral discussion with the board and management. That'll usually involve, you know, sending a letter, outlining our thesis, or outlining our concerns. What we'll then do is continue those discussions for as long as we think we're making progress. But if we get to the point where we believe we're actually hitting a wall where we're not making, uh, where we're not overcoming the inertia, where we're not persuading, we then pivot and begin discussions with other shareholders. So we go to the court of shareholder opinion, and we spend a lot of time trying to persuade other shareholders that what we're proposing is in their interests.

Gabriel Radzyminski: (27:51)
So when I sit across the table from, you know, portfolio manager of a much larger fund than ours, he's not sitting down because he likes me. He's not sitting down because he, you know, he wants to hear what I want, they're sitting down because they want to hear what we're suggesting and how it might be to their benefit. Um, and we always try and frame our proposals in terms of how it is to other people's benefit. And we're not doing it out of the goodness of our heart. I mean, we're investing for our investor's benefit, but if I simply say to someone, look, I want you to support me on this, because we're going to make money on this. You can imagine what the response is. Whereas if I can, if I can get the same outcome for our investors, by framing it in something that is to your benefit, we're both going to be much happier.

Rachel Pether: (28:41)
Absolutely. And I, what you're saying now, you must have read or listened to the art of negotiation

Speaker 4: (28:50)
Is that it's very good.

Rachel Pether: (28:54)
It's Russian by the former, uh, former FBI director, but he touches on all these, all these points about how, if you really want a successful outcome, you need to understand, truly understand the motivations of the person you're negotiating with. So it sounds like you've, you've got that mindset when you approach the activist investing.

Gabriel Radzyminski: (29:18)
Yeah. And I think the other one, and, uh, this, this, uh, struck me a number of years ago. So obviously we use Bloomberg at work. Um, and when you fire up your Bloomberg terminal, anyone who's got one would know what I'm talking about, there's you, there's the message of the day. Now my cynical view is that they give you that little saying of the day to distract you just long enough to not get frustrated at long, it takes for Bloomberg to fire up.

Speaker 4: (29:44)
Um, and

Gabriel Radzyminski: (29:45)
I don't remember who it was, who said it, because to me it was more important what was written as opposed to who said it, but there was a saying a few years back, which you said, there's nothing you cannot achieve. If you're willing to let others take credit. I heard that in the morning and I thought that that's what rubbish. And I still remember throughout that day, it borrowed it's way deeper and deeper into my mind. And suddenly by the end of the day, I sort of understood what it meant. And that's the other thing. There's things that we do where we might be trying to orchestrate something, but we don't need credit for it. There are people who pick up on our ideas and who claim them as their own, because they think it's a good idea. We're flattered. We don't mind. So again, for us, what matters is the returns we deliver to our investors, not whether we get credit for something, uh, in public. Um, and again, that to me comes down to that empathy where we don't need that sort of public validation, uh, on everything we do. I mean, it's nice to get to plaudits, but at the end of the day, what matters to us are the returns that we deliver to our investors and what we do to get those

Rachel Pether: (31:00)
Well, that's a great quote. God bless the Bloomberg terminal for taking so long to firing. And so just to close, you know, you've obviously been in this area for a number of years now, you made the decision to leave your firm and set up an activist, investing firm. Have you ever regretted it? And what would you be doing if this wasn't the space you were in?

Gabriel Radzyminski: (31:26)
Um, I'm like Cortez, uh, when he landed in the new world and burn the ships, um, you know, I'm all in on this. I mean, uh, it took me a long time to sort of find what I wanted, what I enjoyed, what I happened to be good at. Um, you know, we've been at it for nearly 12 years now. Uh, the fund has delivered good returns. Um, I'm fortunate in that. I'm literally doing my dream job. I could not think of doing anything else. Um, you know, I'm passionate about it. Uh, I enjoy it. I get up every morning enjoying, uh, that, you know, what's ahead for me on any given day. Um, so no, I, I don't know what else I'd be doing. Um, I probably don't live the most balanced life. Uh, there is. Um, but that's fine because I enjoy what I do. It's say it's a hobby, a passion. Um, yeah, I'm very fortunate.

Rachel Pether: (32:21)
That's great. And I guess it is one of the downsides of loving your job is that you're happy to do it at all hours of the day, but

Speaker 4: (32:29)
I just really,

Gabriel Radzyminski: (32:31)
It involves a lot of reading, which is, uh, something that's, uh, uh, can be easily done at all hours of the day.

Rachel Pether: (32:38)
Correct. Well, anyway, Gabriel, thank you so much for joining us today. It's been such a pleasure learning. We'll look at your story and I just hope that next time we have a conversation, that's actually in person. I thank you, Rachel, and appreciate the time.

Sean Bill: Portfolio Management for Institutional Investors | SALT Talks #193

“I’m very optimistic on Bitcoin. I think it should be in institutional portfolios. It’s a great complement to traditional portfolios for those in the pension or endowment space.”

Sean Bill is the CIO at the Santa Clara Valley Transit Authority (VTA) where he’s responsible for the management and oversight of its multi-billion dollar, multi-asset class portfolio. He also served as trustee for the city of San Jose’s pension plan and senior advisor to the San Francisco employees’ retirement system.

Being solely responsible for managing $3B in assets for the Santa Clara Valley Transit Authority requires utilizing financial institutions’ resources. Artificial intelligence and machine learning also are vital in providing the analysis when investing an employee system fund. Being able to trust the existing market research analysis of an institution makes it possible for one person to oversee such a big multi-asset class portfolio. “I’m running $3B without any staff, it’s just me… You can kind of view a fund of funds as an extension of my staff.”

Bitcoin represents a major opportunity for institutions and should make up 1-3% of a portfolio’s allocation. Metcalfe’s Law makes it easy to track its pricing when predicting returns. Bitcoin is best understood to institutional investors as digital gold.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Sean Bill .jpeg

Sean Bill

Chief Investment Officer

VTA

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darcie: (00:07)
Hello everyone. And welcome back to salt talks. My name is John Darcie. I'm the managing director of salt, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance technology and public policy. Salt talks are a digital interview series that we launched in 2020, uh, with leading investors, creators and thinkers. In our goal on these salt talks is the same as our goal at our salt conferences, which is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And we're very excited today to welcome Sean bill to salt talks. Uh, Sean is currently the chief investment officer at the Santa Clara valley transit authority of VTA where he's responsible for the management and oversight of a multi-billion dollar multi-asset class portfolio. He also served as a trustee for the city of San Jose pension plan and as a senior advisor to the San Francisco employees retirement system, prior to entering public service, Sean was a principal at a global macro hedge fund based in beautiful Newport beach, California.

John Darcie: (01:11)
He began his career on the agriculture floor at the Chicago board of trade. Sean has invested in dozens of seed stays technology companies and has been a frequent guest on Bloomberg TV, CNBC and Fox business news. He's a graduate of Indiana university currently replacing their head basketball coach. Again, trying to recapture former glory. Sean, I'm a, a, I'm a university of North Carolina fan grew up in chapel hill. So we're experiencing sort of a low on our program as well. So I can sympathize with you there. Uh, but he's also a graduate of Stanford business school, uh, and now still resides out there, uh, in Northern California and hosting today's talk, uh, is Troy [inaudible], who is the partner, uh, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge capital, which is a global alternative investment firm. That's affiliated with salt. And with that, I'll turn it over to Troy to begin the interview,

Sean Bill: (02:01)
John. Yeah, thanks so much. And thanks everyone for being here, Sean. It's really great to see you. Uh, John did an excellent job reading out that very, uh, impressive resume, but you know, when you think about your backgrounds, uh, could you walk us through, you know, the journey that you made coming from? You know, I think like myself, like Anthony, like John humble background to be in a position of so much respect and authority in the investment community today. Yeah. Yeah. So, um, you know, um, first and first generation of my family to go to college. So definitely from very humble beginnings, uh, started investing when I was probably about 13 years old, uh, played hooky from school, took a bus to downtown Houston, uh, went to Putin to open an account and he was, my mother had to come down and co-sign that account cause I wasn't old enough to open it.

Sean Bill: (02:50)
And so she, uh, she signed off and I think my first trade was, I bought three shares of Mobil oil using a paycheck from the Houston Chronicle, delivering papers. And so I started investing at a pretty early age and by the time I was in Como in college, Indiana and I started investing in commodities and started treating quite a bit commodities. Um, and after college I ended up at the Chicago board of trade, uh, working for Ratko, um, down the floor, the, uh, corn wheat soybeans and Milano oil floor, which was a great experience. I, I, I really wish that those floors were still open for younger kids to get that experience in the markets because it is, it's kind of like driving a formula, one car, you're learning at such a rapid rate. You know, you just barely turn that steering wheel and you're in the wall.

Sean Bill: (03:39)
So you really, you really do learn a lot faster down there. Um, after about four years in Chicago, um, I decided I wanted to get back to California. Uh, we had, we had lived in California when I was younger in high school and, um, I just really kind of missed the weather and a lot of friends that were out here. So I ended up going back down to Southern California and of course in Southern California, uh, it's all bonds. And so I ended up going into the bond space, um, you know, had immediately before I got there, you know, I sent some resumes out, had an offer from PIMCO and Bradford MarTech and a couple other places. And I ended up going to Bradford and Mars' neck and becoming their senior corporate bond trader on about, you know, think about, about 10 billion. Um, and then left, there started a hedge fund, which was seeded by Panco, uh, and ran a hedge fund, uh, all the way, jeez, almost all the way through 2011.

Sean Bill: (04:32)
And so with quantitative easing and zero interest rates and all that, we were well relative value, fixed income fund. So, um, you know, while those trades went away, so we gave the money back and I wasn't, I, uh, decided that we wanted to get back up to Northern California. That's where she's from, that's where we have a lot of friends. And so we ended up back up here and just very randomly. Some of my classmates from high school were on the city council in San Jose and asked me if I could help out with the pensions. Um, I was basically kind of twiddling my thumbs, so I thought, sure, why not? And so I ended up going over and joining the San Jose board as a trustee, um, for a buck a year. And then, um, uh, the San Francisco asked me if I could help them out with their hedge fund program.

Sean Bill: (05:18)
So I became a senior advisor to bill Coker and the board administration of San Francisco, and then, uh, the CIO spot, um, and Santa Clara was available. So I ended up doing that. And so that's kind of how I went to the pension space. So it wasn't really planning on, you know, going into pensions. But I do think that, you know, pensions are a super interesting area because you get to touch so many different asset classes. So if you're kind of a macro oriented investor, you know, it's a pretty interesting seat because you're investing in public and private equity, you're doing public and private credit, you're doing, uh, you know, real assets, uh, all kinds of different, you know, uh, markets that you get to touch. So I really enjoyed that. And it's been, it's been a pretty, pretty neat experience overall. Yeah. Thanks for giving us color around that.

Sean Bill: (06:07)
Sean, I'll tell you one thing I found fascinating from that re recounting your background was that you voluntarily recognize that the opportunity set for what you did compressed and you gave back the money, right? How often do you see that in this industry? Usually people always try to get blood from a stone and then struggle for years before recognizing that, you know, their expertise just is out of favor. And as you laid out, a lot of it had to do with unconventional monetary policy that took away a lot of those traits. I kind of look at it like as I've had like kind of three iterations on my career, you know, the first one being done in the open outcry system of the floor, you know, the Chicago board of trade. And it was kind of becoming very clear that that would be coming to an end and that this was going to be, you know, uh, digitized in time.

Sean Bill: (06:54)
So I left that area and then I ended up going into what I'll call the alternative asset management area, right. And hedge funds. And, uh, the area that I was in evaporated over time and the zero interest rate policies came into play. And then it was like, okay, well, you know, we're going to evolve and shift and we'll, we'll go this direction. And so I ended up in the, uh, the pension space. So I kind of, this is like my third act. I think, I don't know what the fourth act will be, but I'm sure at some point I'll get phased out here too. Hey, it's still a young man. You won't be a algorithm or algorithm to way, or how is it AI at away anytime soon, given, given your background, it's really fascinating. You're obviously a proponent of investing in front of hedge funds for certain plans.

Sean Bill: (07:42)
Um, and for certain investors, could you walk through who you think they're appropriate for and why, and if there's certain folks in particular that should focus on that path. Yeah. So I, I, I, you know, coming from the hedge fund background where you do have a lot of resources at your disposal and you can do things pretty quickly, um, and then moving into the government space where you don't have a lot of resources. So I, you know, I'm running $3 billion today without any staff. That's just me. I do have a part-time accountant who will book in the month end closing values of the funds into Sal, but that's literally the only support I have. So if you're in that situation, which a lot of public fund managers are, um, you know, you can kind of view a fund of funds almost as an extension of your staff, right?

Sean Bill: (08:33)
So, you know, the fund of funds are going to do the research. They're going to do the risk management. They're going to handle the back office, you know, subscriptions and redemptions and rebalancing and all these things within that, that space. So for me, that was a primary motivator, I think, for smaller asset owners, you know, sub $1. Um, this is an area that makes a lot of sense because you can really, up-skill the quality of the team that you're working with. Um, and you can, you know, you can actually also benefit from the scale of the fund to funds, uh, and they're negotiating with the underlying managers. So if I was to go out and try and build a fund to funds of my own internally, you know, it's probably going to be a five to $10 million ticket per manager, which is very different than say yourselves at SkyBridge or our other partners who are going to be making much larger allocations to those managers.

Sean Bill: (09:28)
And they're going to get a much better B uh, fabric than we could get if we went direct. So I think there's a couple of different, you know, areas to consider there. Um, the other, the other thing I would emphasize, you know, is the speed at which you guys are able to move versus what we can move. You know, if you're in a, uh, it's called a bureaucratic organization, which has a lot of checks and balances by its nature, and a lot of sign-offs that are needed to get money moved around, it can really slow you down. So, you know, that can be somewhat critical. Uh, you know, it can take me six months to get through the process to onboard a new manager or to offboard or offload a new manager. So, you know, I'm sure for you guys, it's probably four weeks or something, uh, very different in terms of the elements of speed that are available.

Sean Bill: (10:16)
And the redemption is always tougher than the entry point, right? Sean, by definition. So hardest thing to get right. Exit points are definitely more challenging. Um, absolutely. Yeah. And, you know, along those lines, I know we've chatted recently about what our favorite strategies are and there was a lot of overlap, but could you talk to the audience about some of the favorite hedge fund strategies you have now, or unique opportunities that you can access necessarily they're just vanilla fixed income or equity markets? Yeah. I mean, I think there are a couple of different, interesting spaces. Um, you know, I think one that's really hot right now is obviously with what's going on with suspects, right. And, uh, you know, also convertible debt funds those two areas. But what I'm probably most excited about, like if I back up and step up to a higher level, look would be investment managers that are deploying AI machine learning, you know, um, I think that, you know, these quantitative strategies are slowly going to be morphed into more AI and machine learning based strategies.

Sean Bill: (11:15)
And it's not going to be just about speed anymore. It's going to become more also, it's also going to become about inference, right? And the ability to, to learn, uh, and predict. And I've seen examples of this here in the Silicon valley with different managers that are pursuing these approaches. And, um, you know, I'm thinking of one in particular, that's a, um, a consumer lending fund. And what they do is they buy loans off these various platforms and, you know, they'll download, you know, a million loans off a database they'll relay a thousand economic barriers over top of it. And then they'll let the machine learning, crawl the data and determine what is, you know, what are the factors that we should be taken into consideration when we're extending unsecured credit to a consumer? And the things that it comes back with are very different than what you or I might think of in a traditional sense, if someone, uh, capitalizes, uh, you know, Chicago is all caps all the way through, and they'll say, Hey, the data shows that that's a 2.4% higher default rate.

Sean Bill: (12:16)
You know, if the guy is agonizing on the payment meter between 2 85 and 3 0 5 a month on his payment versus the guy that just goes directly to max, not the payment, you know, we can show that there's a very different, uh, return characteristic on who pays back that loan. Right? And so there, there are managers in that space, you know what I mean? You know, there's sweeping these, these loans that fit their criteria off these platforms within 20 milliseconds. So, you know, that's where I w I was sat in with those guys years ago. That's our boy, you know, it's like, Marc Andreessen says, it's like, you know, it's like the most evolved dinosaur. And you see the meteor coming in as like, holy crap, you know, uh, by, by the time that I would be selecting a loan off these platforms, they've already picked the vest, you know, or we're the what's left is the second tier, um, for the traditional credit guidance that's going through there.

Sean Bill: (13:06)
So I really think there's huge advantages to be gained, uh, by using, uh, artificial intelligence and machine learning. And that those advantages can be used in equities and fixed income credit, uh, convertible debt all over. So it's more, that's kind of more of what I'm looking for, uh, what I'm looking about and thinking about the future of who's going to have an edge in investing in these markets. And I think it's great. Yeah, that's really interesting that I just had a chat with one of our long-short healthcare funds this morning about that very topic. And that was a, an unrelated to the audience. This is the first time Sean and I had spoken about it. And that's one of their big projects for this year is trying to apply AI to particularly phase one and phase two biotech companies where, you know, many of the factors that lead to approval, the analyst inherently knows, and the portfolio manager inherently knows, but this gives a much more speed for making a determination on whether the price is appropriate or whether they should hold off for a few more weeks.

Sean Bill: (14:04)
So, yeah, that's going to be a big topic. Uh, first, really, as far as the, I can see Sean, I'm glad you here. Uh, I think that, you know, I mean, um, you know, it is the speed at which AI moves is, you know, it's almost incomprehensible to a human, right? So they can, they can review, you know, millions of pages of a document before we can finish reading 20 pages. So, you know, they're going to go through and they're going to look at these, uh, [inaudible] violence earnings filings, or what have you, and look at the scientific research papers, and they'll come to conclusions on, Hey, you know, this is, what's worked in the past, and this is what we should be looking for. And, you know, we should be basing decisions on this. So that's why I say that, you know, AI brings a whole new level of inference and prediction, and I think dad's going to become a big Hodge for, for money managers.

Sean Bill: (14:54)
That's pretty fascinating. And, you know, in the meanwhile, back in, uh, the more vanilla world of asset allocation, you know, clearly the big challenge for everybody today is how low interest rates are, how low bond yields still are. I mean, obviously it's been a really rough go for bonds really since April and the Barclays agg down over 3% year to date. But when you think about that world, what it means for plans like yourselves or endowments, or, or, or larger pension funds, is that a challenge that can be overcome? Or is it just about ramping of your risk appetite and hoping for the best, or, you know, how do you think about that? You pair it on? Yeah, I mean, you know, I definitely think that the first thing that you have to do is you do have to understand where the central banks are coming from.

Sean Bill: (15:39)
And it's like the old Martins Zweig used to say, don't fight the fed, right. Well, if it's the fed the European central bank, the people's bank of Japan and the central bank of China, uh people's bank of China. Yeah. You definitely don't want to be on the other side of that. And, um, you know, with zero interest rates and quantitative easing and the flood of liquidity, we've seen what's happened. There is, you know, that going back to our Chicago board of trade days, right, you learn very quickly, you have to let your winners run. You have to cut your losers quickly. Right. What does that mean in a practical, uh, an a practical way is, you know, it means letting our equity positions tilt further overweights in what we might normally, we want to stay within our bands, but we, we may want to let those things run a little longer and a little harder.

Sean Bill: (16:28)
Um, we refer to that as kind of intelligent rebalancing. A lot of people will just say, Hey, we're going to rebalance straight up the quarter, and we're just going to bring it back to target wherever it is. Well, you know, we, we let our equities run. Uh, we did hauling back in, uh, late January, early February, we took about 8% of the portfolio from overweight equities that have built up and we rang the register and we said, okay, we're going to, we're going to pull that in. Um, that was, you know, um, really a function of what was going on in China and COVID, um, but you know, when it came time to go back in and we wanted it now we had, okay, the markets have sold off, we're overweight on our fixed income. Well, let's get back into our, our equities, right. And so this is where it is pretty critical to have board buy in on these things.

Sean Bill: (17:17)
Um, you know, our board got a little scared and will nervous when they had him. So we had set up very well for the sell off, but it was very hard to move quickly to get back in. So, so I think, you know, um, kind of straight a little bit off a tangent there, but, but, you know, it's important to what the winners run that's important to, um, uh, you know, cut the losers from, so that, that takes us to fixed income. Our fixed income allocations moved from 35% down to 14%. Uh, we have been steadily trimming that over the last five years and what we've done is we said, okay, you know, we are, you know, we still need to make six and three quarters for our assumed greater return. We're not gonna expect to pull more than three, three and a half out of core fixed income.

Sean Bill: (18:02)
Where can we go to achieve our, our goals? And so one of the areas is private credit. So we we've increased our allocation to private credit in that same period to 12%. Um, we have increased our allocation to hedge funds from zero now up to 6%. Um, you know, we basically said, okay, uh, you know, we need to look at fixed income, basically as a balanced to the risk that we're embracing elsewhere in the portfolio. And we'll use it as a counterweight, but it doesn't need to be 30, 40% of the portfolio anymore. Um, 14 is probably about right. We did put a 3% allocation to a pure treasury fund, uh, with the idea that that could cover benefits for a quarter. We got into any real, real nasty markets actually. So, so minimize fixed income, obviously ramp up alternatives, including private credit and hedge funds and allow your equity portfolio to, uh, play momentum driven by the fed.

Sean Bill: (19:01)
Right, right. That's right. That's right. And we, you sit at a 4% allocation to private equity, uh, with the idea that we want to capture some of the illiquidity premium. There that's a new allocation. Do you think a lot of that illiquidity premium still exists? Sean? I think it is harder to capture than it used to be. I don't think it's as, um, prevalent or as big as what it had been. I think it used to be pretty much a four to 600 basis points of illiquidity premium for some of these assets. Um, you know, as investors like ourselves have been pushed out the risk curve, there's more money coming into these asset classes. And by nature, they become more efficient and the, the liquidity premium shrink. So I don't think it is what it was. Um, but I do think there's still some very interesting opportunities in that space, particularly in venture and, and what happened.

Sean Bill: (19:51)
Yeah. You just asked to be much more selective, right. And focus more on growth as opposed to, you know, these bloated workouts, right. That are just levered. Uh, we're not allocating to large numbers, buyout bonds, or anything like that. It's like if we were doing elbows would be smaller, mid middle market elbows. Um, and we're, we're really more excited about what's happening in the innovation economy and in the venture space. Hey, so shifting gears a little bit, uh, you obviously are aware that we've taken a Bitcoin allocation and, you know, it's something that folks like Michael Saylor and Elon Musk and other insurance companies in Dallas, uh, focused on recently, you know, what's your professional view on, uh, Bitcoin Shaun or, or cryptocurrencies in general. And how do you think they could potentially fit into a portfolio? Yeah, so, I mean, this is an area that I was very excited to hear that you guys took that position.

Sean Bill: (20:44)
Um, we had started trying to educate our board on digital assets back in 2019. And we're trying to really kind of present this as a new uncorrelated asset class. Um, now, you know, as more money has come into Bitcoin as the on-ramps have become, uh, more available for retail, I do think the correlations are going to increase relative to other assets. So, so what we saw five years ago, or the last five years, a correlation of 0.1, 4% of the S and P you know, over the last 12 months looks more like 0.3, four, right? So that's, that's a function of, you know, these on-ramps like PayPal or square cash, or what have you. Um, but I do think that, um, you know, it is still a very uncorrelated asset overall. I think it adds a lot of value when you're, when you're putting together a portfolio.

Sean Bill: (21:36)
We always, I always explain this to my board that, you know, it's like baking a cake, you know, we need some flour, we need some sugar, we need some salt and any one of them individually may not taste that great. But, uh, you know, when we put them all together, we're gonna get this beautiful cake and Bitcoin model, all three of those sounded pretty good to me. Shout, I'm not sure if you mentioned rights, but we were going to leave that one out. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So, so, so from the institutional perspective, Bitcoin might be that raw bag, right? It's a little, it's scary, right? I mean, we, we've all seen Rocky drink it, but we're like, Hmm, I don't know if we should. Um, so, you know, uh, we did, we did, uh, talk to our board about this and we said, Hey, listen, you know, a one to 3% allocation could really enhance the overall return profile of our fund.

Sean Bill: (22:21)
And if you are following McAfee's, you know, law in terms of, um, how the Bitcoin network becomes more valuable as more participants, uh, enter the network, then it's pretty easy to actually track where the pricing of Bitcoin should be. Uh, Dan Morehead and Pantera. And those guys have done a lot of research on that. And, you know, you guys have also done a lot of research on that. So there are several big institutional investors that are, are looking at this, cause this is one of the big questions, right. Is how do you value Bitcoin? It's, uh, you know, uh, there's, there's no intrinsic value, right? We don't have a bunch of industrial assets. We can go down and place a value on this is a, um, it's a digital asset, so it is tricky to value it. Um, I do think that McAfee's law really does stand out as a great way to think about it.

Sean Bill: (23:10)
Uh, we saw at work with telephone networks, we've seen it work with social networks. We've seen it work with all kinds of different, um, network type entities. So, so we, um, we thought that, you know, one to 3% was our official recommendation to the board, uh, in 2019, uh, as Bitcoin began appreciating, uh, you know, we think it should be probably at least half to one and a half percent still in an institutional portfolio. That's great. Yeah. And the other aspect too, that we like is it's liquid, right? I mean, it's small, so it's liquid in most alternatives that can generate attractive, which we'll segue to in a second, you really have to move down liquidity spectrum. Whereas this is one of the few that stands out as, Hey, you have a realistic chance of being a 50% or a hundred percent even from here and it's liquid at the same time, because you might have a different view, but we don't see how equities are up more than 10 or 15 this year, maybe 20, if everything goes well, but given high valuations potential higher taxes, obviously higher interest rates, uh, that, that will serve as somewhat of a break on equity.

Sean Bill: (24:15)
For sure. Yeah, no, I think, you know, we're in the same camp on the equity returns, we do feel like it's still pretty positive with what's happening with quantitative easing and continuing to push investors out in search of return. Um, you know, but, um, Bitcoin, we do basically look at it as like a digital gold, you know, this would be kind of similar to holding gold. Um, I do think that Bitcoin is a little better positioned because I think that, you know, there is a finite number of coins, 21 million, I believe, uh, 4 million of those are out of existence. Right. We don't think they're coming back. Um, so we have about 17 million and we know that the float that actually trades is very small. So, you know, um, I think that, you know, it's pretty realistic that we will probably see Bitcoin at a hundred thousand by the end of the year, just following McAfee's principle on this.

Sean Bill: (25:05)
Um, and that longer term, I think it will continue to appreciate quite a bit more so I'm, I'm very optimistic on Bitcoin. I think that it should be in institutional portfolios. I think it's a great, you know, compliment to traditional portfolios. I think for folks like myself and the pension or endowment space, you know, and this is something that you could put in either as a venture investment, uh, you know, you could put it in the venture bucket because it does have characteristics of a venture back company, or you could put it in as a substitute for gold, uh, in your portfolio. Gotcha. So segwaying from liquid alternatives to less liquid alternatives, you know, we know you're a big fan of angel investing and you focused on that personally and professionally for quite some time. Now, are there any particular areas like other maybe AI we covered already, or perhaps it's still your favorite?

Sean Bill: (25:55)
Are there any other areas that you'd like to particularly I would have invested in some AI companies, um, you know, for all the viewers out there, they should check out Chooch, uh, it's an app on the apple app store or the Android app store. And this is gives you a really good example of what is possible with AI and visual recognition. Uh, this is a company I invested in that when I was at a $10 million valuation, they just closed their most recent fundraising at a $200 million valuation. Um, and I think this will be a billion dollar company within two or three years. Um, but I think that is a great, um, a great way for the everyday investor to see just what AI can do even on your telephone. Um, outside of AI, um, the area that I'm probably most excited about is FinTech and really trying to use my background in finance, you know, having been on the floor of an exchange and worked in the hedge fund side, dealing with commercial banking and treasury operations, et cetera, I feel like I have a little bit of an edge in Vintech.

Sean Bill: (27:02)
And so I generally tend to focus most of my time in that space and the strategy that, you know, I approach or the way I look at it, the framework that I use to look at FinTech is I'm trying to say, Hey, who's going to become the Amazon of FinTech. You know, um, you usually have a winner in each category. Um, I think it's going to continue down that path. I think there will become a digital online entity, financial entity that will be the winner in the end. Um, you know, and so what I do is I look at, you know, the different verticals in lending and payments and asset management or investment management, et cetera, and just, you know, treat them as like a swim lane. And once you, once you begin to dominate that swim lane, they, they move on to the next lane, which might be mortgages and then the next lane, which might be investments and so-and-so, and so, and then eventually you create this a company that's almost like an Amazon of FinTech.

Sean Bill: (27:59)
Um, so that's, that's probably the area that I've spent the most time on, or I have the most, uh, personal investments and the area that I'm most excited about, because I do feel like I can, I can look through those companies and get a general sense of, of how they're performing, um, and how they're, how they're going to perform. Um, the, I, you know, so I, I have a syndicate on angel list, um, where I syndicated these deals. I've done about a dozen on there. And the IRR over the last six years is about 30% and we've not had a single one of those companies that's gone out of business. Every one of them stayed in business, which means we're probably not taking quite enough risk, but, um, but I do, you got to roll the dice more here, come on, gotta be a little more aggressive. I've only got two unicorns in my portfolio. [inaudible]

Sean Bill: (28:45)
Come on. Yeah, yeah. So I've got two, I've got lifts and avant are both in my portfolio from early investments in 2014. Um, but, uh, but yeah, I think, you know, that there's a lot of opportunity in FinTech still. I think it's still very, very early days. I think that this whole defy revolution that's beginning and what's going to happen with the blockchain. And, uh, you know, we can go into how AI works with the blockchain and the cloud and, you know, these things are all interconnected. Um, so I think there's a lot of runway there. Um, another area that I've been investing in, I just did a, um, investment with, uh, Portree Friedman Milton Friedman's grandson, uh, down at, uh, in Honduras. Um, yeah, it, it was interesting. That's like the most violent country in the world. And so the idea was for any new that I've seen the Milton Friedman series free to choose where they go through and talk about the Asian tigers know and Hong Kong and all these things.

Sean Bill: (29:43)
The idea was could we bring a special economic zone to central America and create opportunity down in central America for the residents down there? And so, um, we invested a quarter million down there and, um, I think the total raise was about 19 million. Um, but we got, you know, people like Peter teal and Joe Lonsdale and mark Andreessen that also are participating and really just seeing if we, if these principles can work down there and central America. So we're on the island of Roatan with 65 acres and starting to build, um, this little special economic zone, obviously central and Latin America in general could use help, right? Not only do the pandemic, but it's been an area of disappointment for quite some time for investors, hopefully you guys can, uh, uh, show the way or like the way down there it's

John Darcie: (30:32)
Like assault, destination shot, destination. It's, it's

Sean Bill: (30:37)
Actually like, I think like the fourth, most popular scuba destination, which I learned, um, and th and they do have direct flights from, I think it's Houston to, to the island of Roatan. Um, so I'm very optimistic about that. I mean, I think that, you know, if that, if we can make that model work in central America, um, then we can port that model to other places. So we've seen it in Dubai. We've seen it in Singapore, we've seen it, you know, and why hasn't it? Why not, why not have it, uh, you know, south of the border of the United States? Yeah. He's shown. So, you know, this touches very well with our conversations on Bitcoin being liquid and obviously equities being liquid, private equity and VC, but we've seen a blending to some extent recently between, you know, late stage privates, uh, for companies like chime or, or Klarna, you know, higher evaluations obviously than the early stage investors and still at reasonable valuations compared to the Republic comps.

Sean Bill: (31:32)
And also the emergence of the SPAC market is a unique way to take companies, um, public, w what's your overall period, is this an area, uh, too much risk right now? Or is it just a combination of, um, where we are in a market cycle and calibrating your risk reward objectives? Yeah, I, I D I, I think that, you know, take them separately. I think, you know, SPACs have been a really interesting way to go public, right. And I think that, um, you know, bill Gurley and, and some of the fellows out here in the Silicon valley have been pushing back on, you know, value that's left on the table from these IPO's and the fees they're paying, and what have you, I think this back fees will be con consolidating and compressing over time, and that it will become even more efficient. Um, so if you're, you know, if you're a Spotify or, or Airbnb or something like that big name, then Hey, you can just do a direct listing and, and go public that way.

Sean Bill: (32:23)
Um, but for some of the, let's call it 3 billion to $10 billion companies, you know, spat can be a really interesting way to get public. Um, so I'm, I'm very positive on specs. Um, the, you know, the late stage private investing, the way I view that is more of like, okay, you know, um, over the last 10 years, over the last decade, we've seen a real shift where, you know, when Microsoft went public, you would capture a very large portion of the appreciation at the IPO and, and going forward or apple or any of these others. Uh, in the last 10 years, it's become very difficult, you know, being a public company, right. It was Sarbanes, Oxley and Dodd-Frank, and all these other rules that a lot of them just have chosen stay private longer. Well that as a pension investor, uh, that's, that's something that we're missing out on in terms of, you know, how do we get exposure to this?

Sean Bill: (33:19)
So I view it as, and I've worked with our board on this. I think we're getting close to actually doing something on this, you know, um, I view it as let's look at late stage private investments as a substitute for our small cap, public equity exposure. So just slotted, slotted into that slot and say, okay, we're not expecting the return profile that we used to expect from small cap equities. It's now in this late stage bucket. So let's just shift over to that allocation report, part of that allocation to late stage private investing and treat it like it's sidecar our small cap exposure. That's really smart. And it's the first time I've heard that, but it makes complete sense given, especially the recent rally and small caps and broader equities in general. And from what we've analyzed, you still have far more growth prospects in many of the FinTech or other tech late stage startups than you would in know the Russell 2000 value or growth indices.

Sean Bill: (34:14)
Correct? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think, you know, I think we will see, I mean, look at Stripe, right. I mean, I could've, I could have been buying shares and Stripe three years ago at 15 billion. Right. Um, and the secondary market, um, you know, I mean, uh, I had friends that were buying those shares and I thought, boy, that's really expensive, but I'm like, gosh, you know, but that would be like, you know, that's a good example of a late stage fund. That's got a broad exposure to a lot of different companies is going to capture that run from 15 billion to a hundred billion, right before Stripe actually hits the public markets. Um, you know, we saw this with Facebook. I mean, that was probably the original, right. I mean, you know, Facebook kind of, you know, put that path, uh, showed the way of how to go down that path.

Sean Bill: (34:57)
And then now we're seeing other big companies doing the same thing. I think Stripe is a perfect example of that. So I'm a big fan of, of allocating to late stage private, private, right. And clearly the companies had been de-risked by the end, compared to when the earlier stages at lower evaluations as well. Sometimes we forget about that. Right? Absolutely. Yeah. I mean, I think a lot of these late stage companies, you know, 10 years ago would have been doing the IPO's. Um, it's just, now it's very, it's very onerous to do an IPO. And so they, they defer it. They don't need their capital. They can defer it for awhile. Last question, before I turned it over to my esteemed colleague, John Darcie to wrap it up. But yeah, the pandemic, I think taught a lot of us, some lessons, not that we're delusional and didn't understand bad things can happen, but I know from our perspective, what was surprising was not only the magnitude, but the speed of the market collapse, right?

Sean Bill: (35:53)
Unlike oh eight where you had 18 to 24 months, three position, this was everything's fine. Everything's not fine. And then, Hey, everything's fine. Again, courtesy of the fed and fiscal stimulus. So are there any take-home lessons, uh, for your investing craft or for asset allocation or is it just the tried and true? Hey, don't panic, bad things happen, manage your way through it. How do you think this, uh, pandemics effected, you know, you intellectually and how you look at, uh, various investments? Yeah, I mean, so, you know, I had a, you know, a shopping list of stocks. I actually published it on my blog. I'm like, Hey, you know, we're getting into some pretty hairy territory. Here's my shopping list. You know, let's buy square at 35. Let's, you know, let's get into some of these names, uh, Boeing, Disney, you know, great companies I'd love to own, but, uh, you had to wait for an, a real pullback.

Sean Bill: (36:44)
And I think that's one thing I learned in, um, at the Chicago board of trade is that you have to have your game plan in place before you get into the, in that case, the pits and by selling, um, you have to know what, what the, what the framework is that you're operating in. So I think I might've been Warren buffet that said, you've got to have your shopping list ready to go when Mr. Mark is having a breakdown and it's hard if you don't already have it prepared to do it on the fly. Um, if you have it already outlined and you're ready to go, then you can take advantage of these psychological or behavioral economics driven issues that create these dislocations, which don't last very long anymore. Um, you know, and the other thing I would say is, you know, I mean this most recent snapback really does illustrate the power of central banks and how, you know, they have learned from 2008 and nine and they are pretty unconstrained and what they can do and the numbers that they can throw at the market.

Sean Bill: (37:48)
So, you know, it definitely, you know, um, would not try to go against the central banks, um, and would definitely try to ride the wave while it's there to be re written. Um, now at some point, you know, they're gonna have to unwind all this stuff and that's another conversation, right? It can be quite a hang over the next six to nine months, but that's right. So to sum it up, it's more of a continuation or reinforcement of your investment discipline. You be ready to buy when opportunities present themselves. And this experience just reinforced that in not only that that's a thoughtful discipline, but that you have to move and move fast, uh, which is sometimes easier said than done. Right? Absolutely. And I think, you know, one of the things I would add to it is, um, you know, as I'm thinking about it, you know, for pension investors or endowments or foundations, um, one of the things we do is rebalance our portfolios, right?

Sean Bill: (38:40)
And individual investors can really benefit from that as well. So, you know, if you are, uh, following a rebalancing plan, uh, you are inherently going to be a value investor, right? So if you have some stocks and you have some bonds and stocks are down 30% and your bond portfolio is up 20%, you're going to be selling some of your bonds and then buying stocks at a discount. And that's a, that's a great position. It's, it's a, you know, a disciplined rebalancing approach should add between 40 to 70 basis points of annualized performance to your portfolio over a decade. So this is a lot better than the risk-free these days. Right? Sean. Yeah. Yeah. It's a good add on, you know, and we got to take those, those basis points wherever we can get them these days. That's right. That's right. Well, Sean, I just want to thank you for our investment team and the folks at sky Ridge from coming on. I'm going to turn up over to, yes, I'll say it again. John, my esteemed colleague say saying it was this isn't enough to, uh,

John Darcie: (39:39)
I want to have to get my shots in at the end of these interviews and, and pick up the, uh, the areas that I think were most interesting and, and ask a few follow up questions, but let's go back to Bitcoin for a second. So you're everybody's dream partner in terms of, uh, being an allocator who understands where things are going, looking around corners and the ability to take risks and do things that are new and exciting, but not every institution thinks in the same way as you go out amongst your colleagues in the institutional investment world, what are you hearing about views on Bitcoin? Is it still people leveling accusations about the fact that it's not backed by anything? It doesn't have any intrinsic value there's issues related to energy usage. What is the broader messaging that you're hearing today within the institutional investor world?

Sean Bill: (40:23)
Well, all right. So John, the first thing I do whenever I come sit down with another CIO of another pension fund, as I tell them that, you know, from my perspective, the most critical thing you can do is think like an entrepreneur with institutional resources. And part of that is driven by being here in the bay area and seeing the impact of innovation. Um, so, so you have to get them out of a traditional mindset, right? Because you know, it is a let's buy, you know, IBM. So we don't get fired type of mentality in general. Um, so to get them to think outside the box, you have to frame it for them. Um, now, you know, the big concerns with Bitcoin that I've found in probably the, probably the biggest concern is the custodian element in terms of custodian, those assets safely. Um, you know, that is something that a lot of people just aren't really comfortable with this idea that there's a private key and a public key.

Sean Bill: (41:18)
And jeez, you know, everybody's read the stories about losing the, the private key and then he can't get it back. And I've tried to explain that I'm like, look, there are, there are good custodians out there as Gemini and there's Coinbase, there's a, there's a lot of different options that you can go through, uh, or you can have someone like SkyBridge do it for you, right. And then that takes it off your plate completely, uh, from a risk standpoint. Um, but I think that probably shot by the way I liked that option myself. I think it's a good option. I think it's a very good option. I think, you know, I mean, I've been, I've been trying to really share that message that, you know, we have our Bitcoin exposure through SkyBridge and, you know, there are different ways of doing it. You don't have to be the CIO of saying, okay, let's go open that a coin, uh, account at Gemini or Coinbase, and I'm going to sign my name on here and we gotta figure out how we're going to store that key. I actually write

John Darcie: (42:10)
Down on a piece of paper and put it in your sock drawer and hope, hopefully you don't wash those socks. Yeah, yeah. Or the,

Sean Bill: (42:18)
Yeah, something happens. Right. Cause that one, you know, that would be everybody's worst nightmare. Um, so I am, you know, but again, as we talked about earlier, I'm a big fan of partnering with different firms and using, you know, the fund to funds model and, and just delegating authority to other asset managers and what have you to let them do what they do best. Um, you know, that's something I learned from Tom Dittmer, you know, he said he, he made as much money by allocating money to smart investors that he did on his own trading and investing. And so I think, you know, there's a lot of alpha to be had by finding those managers that understand the markets that we're in and understand how to protect the capital and, and allocate to them. Um, you don't have to do it all, everything on your own.

Sean Bill: (43:01)
Um, but there are, I think, you know, there's, um, there are two funds up in Virginia that, uh, uh, put money into digital assets. Um, you know, I think, you know, there were probably other pensions that are invested in funds like yourself that have assets in digital or have funds digital assets. Um, so I think that the acceptance level is, is getting there. I think the, probably the hardest thing now for everybody to swallow is the idea that, you know, Bitcoin's at 56 to $60,000 and who knows, they're late. I feel like they're living, you know, and, uh, um, that's a hard one to swallow sometimes now in my case, you know, you know, I think there's still a lot more potential and there's a, still a lot more upside from here. So, you know, I don't think it is a three to 5% allocation that I would've thought, uh, you know, in 2018 or 2019. But I do think, you know, uh, it is a half to one and a half pretty safe that have some money, have some exposure there. Yeah.

John Darcie: (44:02)
That's a narrative that we pushed back on a lot too, is we have some very smart hedge fund managers that we work with that have come to us and said, okay, I buy into the story, but I don't want to be the sucker. That's left holding the bag, buying it at 60 and it trades down to the 30 or something and we try to impress upon them how different the environment is today than it was in 2017. And if you look at caps laws, you were talking about and the exponential power of network growth, uh, still, still could be very early, but I want to go further down what you were talking about in terms of central banks. So you talked about, you know, don't fight, the fed has become don't, don't fight the bazooka around the world from the people's bank of China, from, uh, the ECB and a variety of central banks, but also there's this notion, especially within the crypto community that ultimately central banks might lose control, but there might be diminishing returns on the massive liquidity that they're pumping. Do you view, uh, Bitcoin and digital assets and other technology companies as sort of a hedge against inflation or a hedge against the idea that central banks and central planners might lose control. And do you see a future where there are central bank digital currencies that try to mitigate the impact of that?

Sean Bill: (45:10)
Well, I definitely think of Bitcoin more as a, um, as a digital gold than anything else. I think that the design is most efficiently represented in digital gold and as an, as a holding, um, but gold substitute. Um, I think it is very, very, very well positioned to be a hedge against inflation because it is unlimited supply. It's a finite supply, you know, I think, you know, uh, with all the currency printing that's occurring, uh, around the world, um, you know, that this is where Bitcoin really stands out. There's 21 million coins. Um, you know, you're not going to see more than that. So, um, from a big picture standpoint, you know, I don't see Bitcoin competing as a currency. I see it as digital gold. I think that, you know, it, it doesn't have sovereign authority, you know, there is, it's, it gets a little bit tricky on, um, taking it as a currency.

Sean Bill: (46:14)
Um, you know, it's not legal tender, right? I mean, you know, you still are getting taxed when you sell your Bitcoin to buy something, right. Uh, Bitcoin has been appreciating so rapidly that a lot of people feel kind of remorse every time they sell some to buy some right, that guy, the famous pizza I had bought the pizzas, you know, those pizzas were very, very expensive pizzas. Um, so I think that the, yeah, I think that the place for Bitcoin is really as the gold substitute and, you know, you can walk across the border with a thumb drive and, you know, have a hundred million dollars in your pocket and nobody knows, you know? Right. And there's a lot to be said for that when you're dealing with, uh, third world countries and things like that. And what we've seen in widespread Bitcoin adoption, I do think that, you know, the U S central banks, the European central banks, the Chinese central banks, are going to eventually figure out that they have to digitize their cartoon.

Sean Bill: (47:11)
And they really already are kind of digital right. In the sense how the fed works and how they give you credits and debits and all this good stuff. Um, but I do think that, um, you know, a digital dollar is kind of critical for national security. Uh, we're already seeing that, you know, China's working on a digital Renmimbi, um, you know, uh, hopefully, uh, the U S gets there first and, you know, it gets so widely adopted currency, um, a digital currency. Um, it could be one of these other currencies, like Monero or Zcash or something like that. But I kind of tend to think that, you know, it's going to probably be, um, probably either the U S probably the U S or China, that will, will be the, the digital currency of choice. And that's going to be based on whether you want an open or closed system, you know? Yep.

John Darcie: (47:59)
And then this is sort of down the same vein, but you talked about AI, how you're a big investor in AI companies and about the potentially disruptive potential of AI, not just in asset management, but across society. We had a very interesting guest on salt talks. Recently, his name was Jeff Booth. Uh, he wrote a book called the price of tomorrow, which if you haven't haven't read it, I would definitely recommend it. But he basically talked about how, um, AI is going to disrupt the way we think about employment, the way we think about jobs it's already happening. And COVID, I think accelerated that in terms of people not necessarily feeling so more to large corporations with being able to build out their own individual verticalized businesses through content creation, through, uh, syndicate investing through something like angel list, what do you think the broader implications of AI are for, for the investment community and for society, and as, as a steward of a public plan, how do you think about those implications when you're building your portfolios?

Sean Bill: (48:55)
Well, I definitely think that, you know, we're going to see AI creep into a lot of different areas. So I think, you know, you already see it on the backend, you know, in the back office and customer service, right. You probably have been on the phone with an AI, you know, you probably have talked to the chat bot and the AI and those make, you know, the back office more efficient, right. So that the AI can sort through a lot of the easy problems and then the more difficult problems come to the people, the humans, right. So the, the role, the role of people I think will change into trying to kind of figure out what are the right parameters to separate AI, and then, you know, letting the AI kind of take care of a lot of the, uh, I'll say groundwork, right. You know, um, in the investment area, I think we're going to see, you know, we're already seeing it where it's, you know, AI is being used to scan annual reports, earnings reports, uh, research reports, um, you know, um, I know a company that uses AI to scan satellite photos, um, you know, uh, to see what, uh, what's going on in shipping, what's going on in the, you know, we all know we've all heard the stories about satellite photos being used, uh, to determine how many cars are in the parking lot at the various retailers.

Sean Bill: (50:04)
Um, you know, uh, I think that we're just going to see more and more of this, and we're going to see, um, you know, see, uh, creeping to lending, uh, you know, we'll, we'll see where AI is making decisions on credit. Uh, it could eventually be where John, uh, you know, wants to lend some money and Sean must've borrowed some money and we do it through a smart contract on Ethereum. That's using smart AI to help determine if all the conditions are being met, to release the funds and to repay the funds and all that good stuff. Um, so I, I think that we'll see, um, continued steady progress in AI. Now, I think that there's another element of AI. That's also quite, quite interesting. Um, you know, I'm part of the Silicon valley defense group, and there we're working with the department of defense and while the technology companies here in the Silicon valley and, you know, AI is going to be pretty critical for, for future, um, combat.

Sean Bill: (51:05)
Okay. So, you know, there's a lot of money. The stuff that is going on in the defense sector is way beyond anything that we're seeing, uh, in our space and retail. So, uh, I do think that that technology will eventually trickle out into the consumer, into the investment space, into our daily lives. But, um, you know, I mean, right now, I mean, you can kind of think of it. Like if you think of the Gulf war in 1990 and the advantage of the United States had with night vision. Yep. That's going to be AI and the next battle. Right. Um, you know, the, the decision-making will be so quick, so fast that, uh, you know, AI will be the decider rather than human decision-making. Um, so, so I think, you know, we're going to see AI creep into all kinds of places and all, all sorts of areas.

John Darcie: (51:56)
Yep. It'll be fascinating to watch it. And then as we've all observed, COVID sort of accelerated a lot of that technology adoption and, uh, yeah, it's been fascinating to see, but Sean, thanks so much for joining us. We hope you can come to our, our salt conference, which we just announced the resumption of our in-person salt conferences in September, in New York city this year, as opposed to our customary a destination in Las Vegas. Obviously we love Vegas, but doing it in our home city for once will be fun. And we hope to have you there as we often do. So thanks so much.

Sean Bill: (52:26)
Yeah. September, I think. Right. So that'd be good

John Darcie: (52:28)
For yeah. Crazy weather in New York, everybody getting back to hopefully some in-person interaction for once. So we think it'll be fine. Well, Patricia, do you have anything for Sean before we let him

Sean Bill: (52:37)
Go? No, just thanks a lot, Sean. We really appreciate you sharing your insights particularly on AI and you know, the digital space and the challenges around fixed income stage say it's the biggest elephant in the room for every investor and it's not getting any better anytime soon. Unfortunately. Yeah, no, I think we're going to be in a low return environment for a long time. Uh, I always say, you know, I think in my last blog posts, blog posts and put, you know, we're all becoming Japanese, you know, so this could go on for decades, but all of us like sushi. I know I do. I'm pretty sure you do too. Sean. So alluded to John.

John Darcie: (53:12)
I love it. All right. Thank you, Sean. And thank you everybody who tuned into today's salt. Talk with Sean bill of the valley transit authority, uh, out there in Santa Clara county. Just a reminder, if you missed any part of this talk or any of our previous salt talks, you can access them all on our website@salt.org backslash talks and on our YouTube channel, which is called salt tube. We're also on social media. Twitter is where we're most active at salt conference, but we're also on LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook. And please spread the word about these salt talks. If you have a, an institutional investor in your family, who's not as enlightened as, as Sean is here, uh, make sure to send them the salt talks so they can free their mind to things that are happening within technology and within the digital asset space. But on behalf of Troy guy esky and the entire salt team, this is John Darcie signing off from salt talks for today. We hope to see you back here soon.

Ted Seides: Teaching Financial Literacy with Capital Allocators | SALT Talks #190

“Everyone talks about being a long-term investor. Almost no one is able to invest for more than a 3-5 year horizon… you can’t be wrong for too long in this business.”

Ted Seides is the creator of the podcast Capital Allocators and recently published a book under the same name. He discusses lessons and best practices for money managers.

Money managers should always start by understanding the purpose of the capital and its return objectives. This can vary whether it’s a pension fund or a multi-century oriented college endowment. Despite understanding the need for long-term patience, in reality most investors’ returns are judged on 3-5 year timelines. A passion for constantly learning from people across the investment landscape has been the driving force in growing the Capital Allocators podcast. “When I focus on the compounding of the relationships, the returns have been amazing.”

Bitcoin and blockchain-powered technology represents potentially the next major investment opportunity. Interest in Bitcoin has accelerated as a hedge against inflation due to expansion in the money supply. The continued development of blockchain infrastructure will only make related technologies more attractive to major institutions. “Around 20% of all the super talented programmers and engineers are doing things on blockchain protocols. That’s a classic venture investment: follow the talent.”

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Ted Seides, CFA.jpeg

Ted Seides

Host

Capital Allocators Podcast

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darcie: (00:06)
Hello, everyone. Welcome back to salt talks. My name is John Darcie. I'm the managing director of salt, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance technology and public policy. Salt talks are a digital interview series with leading investors, creators, and thinkers. And our goal on these salt talks is the same as our goal at our salt conferences, which is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And we're thrilled today to welcome Ted [inaudible] CFA to salt talks, Ted site, he's created capital allocators, LLC to explore best practices in the asset management industry, after a long story career in the industry, uh, which is still in the midst of, I would add he launched the capital allocators podcast in 2017 and the show reached 5 million downloads in January of 2021 alongside the podcast.

John Darcie: (01:03)
Ted works with both managers and allocators to enhance their investment and business processes. In March of 2021, he published his second book, also named capital allocators, how the world's elite money managers lead and invest in order to distill the lessons from the first 150 episodes of the podcast from 2012 to 2015, Ted was the founder of protege partners, LLC, and served as president and co-chief investment officer in 2016, Ted author, his first book called. So you want to start a hedge fund lessons for managers and allocators to share lessons from his experiences. He's a trustee and member of the investment committee at the winter grand foundation, a member of the advisory council for the Alliance for decision education and an active participant in the hero's journey foundation. He previously served as a trustee and the head of the program and committee of the Greenwich round table and a board member of citizens schools, New York hosting today's talk is Anthony Scaramucci, the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge capital. It's a global alternative investment firm. Anthony is also the chairman of salts. And with that, I'll turn it over to Anthony to start the interview.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:13)
I just want you to know how things go down at SkyBridge. He's there in the beautiful background with assault picture and the sole logo on trapped in the conference room with the echo chamber microphone. So I just want to make sure that you know who the important people are at SkyBridge. Okay. So it's, it's nice to see you, you know, I'm a huge fan. We go back a very long time, but having said that I'm lying about my age now society. So, you know, what can I tell you? I, I'm only going to tell people we know each other for 10 minutes, as opposed to 20 years, let's go right to the book. Congratulations on it. Uh, tell us about the book, how the world's elite money managers manage money, what they think about, uh, and his F Scott Fitzgerald, correct. Are the bridge different for the rest of us?

Ted Seides: (03:03)
Um, well the book came out of the podcast, I suppose there was always a book in the podcast, but as you know, from having written a bunch of them, you really scratch your head and why anyone would bother writing a book because it takes up so much time and a bunch of your resources. So, um, pandemic hit, I had some time on my hands and, and there were a few things that I had learned from doing the podcast that I really wanted to go back and try to figure out like, what were those lessons? And it really started with decision-making. Um, I had interviewed Annie duke a number of times, Michael [inaudible] and it just started there. And it, it, you know, it grew from there and we can talk more about it, but are the rich are the, are the elite different? Um, in many ways they are there the institutional investors, if you want to call that entire class, that sort of elite, they do have access to resources and people that, you know, a lot of retail investors, don't,

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:58)
There's, there's no instruction manual, uh, something that you, uh, have made clear from your podcasts and the other books that you've written. And so people are finding their way. There's a little bit of a matte sailing race. And what I mean by that is people are looking at each other's sailboats, and they're trying to figure out how they're going to need to, uh, make the terms pursuant to what other people are doing. But what are some general axiomatic observations that you've made in your story career? Yeah,

Ted Seides: (04:28)
Well, I, you know, there, there wasn't an instruction manual once it was Steve Swenson's book, uh, pioneering portfolio management. Um, and I started my career working for David and he was just an incredibly disciplined investor. And one of the things I learned from him is this whole framework for investing. That's, that's common. That started.

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:48)
I'm going to stop you for a second, just for our young viewers. Uh, David Swenson was, is the Yale endowment. He's the chief investment officer there. About 20 years ago. You wrote a legendary book called pioneering portfolio management, which all of us, Fred, uh, I just wanna to throw that in there to ensure good news is for you. You've got all these young people, hopefully these young people are ground by your book. I just want to explain to them who we

Ted Seides: (05:15)
Is. I know it's, you're reminding you reminding me of our age now, Anthony, that I think you're right, that some people wouldn't have David Swinson is really the Warren buffet of institutional investing. And in this book you referred to, he described how he had invested at Yale at that point in time for 15 years. And now he's been there for 35 or 36 years, and it became known as the Yale model. Um, and that book describes kind of a multi-asset class framework. He started with the first principles of if you're managing an endowment, which has a really, really long time horizon. You want to be equity oriented, you want to own things. You want to be diversified. And he was a big believer in active management. And he described in that book, a lot of the academic research and the framework for how he went about investing successfully at Yale, what he didn't do in that book was described, then how do you go do it?

Ted Seides: (06:13)
So it's good to have a framework. And one of the benefits I've had from being able to interview all these terrific people on the podcast is you start to figure out how did they do it? How did these people go about figuring out what their strategy will be? How do they go find the money managers they want to invest with? What kind of research do they do once they make decisions? How do they make those portfolio decisions? And then how do they monitor those decisions over time? And so there's a whole section of the book called investment frameworks that tries to walk through that process for how did the people sitting really at the top of the food chain of capital go about their day to day,

Anthony Scaramucci: (06:52)
I'm going to lay out the organic ingredients. You tell me what I've gotten right and wrong. You've got actuarial goals, you have risk and volatility that you need to deal with because God forbid you need to build a building. And then the market drops like in 2008, you have ESG goals where you're worried about the social impacts of investing. Uh, tell us, uh, how you bake that cake with all of those ingredients on the table today. Uh, what, what do some of the best capital allocators do? 10? Yeah.

Ted Seides: (07:28)
So it starts with, what is the purpose of the capital? So in a pension fund, you mentioned it could be this actuarial assumption. We need to earn a certain return because we have to fund the retirement of our constituents. If it's an endowment, it could be, we need to support the budget of the university for decades to come centuries, to come at it in some instances. And then we also have spending along the way. So a lot of it turns to just starting with the very basic of what are your return objectives, what are your spending needs to achieve the goals you're trying to for that pool of capital. And it's very different. If it's an endowment, a pension fund, it could be an individual. Um, and, but that's where it starts. And then from that, you start to draw things like what's the duration of the assets.

Ted Seides: (08:17)
Like how long can you be investing? Um, what strategies do you want to pursue? How much risk do you want to take? So when you, when you get down to it for these particular pools of capital and it's quite different from individuals, um, it started with that Yale model, which was equity oriented, diversified multi-asset class. And the evolution you've seen since that has to do with what's happened in the capital markets. So, you know, if we look at, uh, today, um, just owning us equities at whatever valuations they're at, just owning us bonds at zero or one and a half percent on the 10 year, it's not going to get the goals that most of these pools of capital need to earn, call it six to 8% a year. And so what you've seen is this evolution away from kind of pure asset class buckets, and more towards the importance of active management and manager selection across these asset classes. Because if you just invest in us stocks, a lot of these CEOs don't think that's going to be good enough to meet their objectives.

Anthony Scaramucci: (09:22)
So there's the stark reality. We were in super low interest rate environment. You're talking about, I'm going to throw out a number. So the pension funds common assumption to meet their needs 7%. Is that the right time? It's about 7%. So with rates, let's call the 10 year for the purposes of this conversation and it between 1.3 and 2%, let's just call it that. Um, so you've got 500 basis points over the 10 year that you effectively need to make to hit your actuarial goals. Stock market seems to produce that with the varying levels of volatility. So let's say I'm coming to you with a 30 billion, a billion dollar endowment tag. What are you telling me to do?

Ted Seides: (10:13)
Yeah. Well, you said a key word in there, which is the stock market has produced that. I think a lot of the people in the seat don't think it will going forward. And so you do want to own equities because over a long period of time, you probably will get to those rates of return, but you might have some volatility along the way. A lot of these asset class strategies, what you see is they're very diversified. So there'll be U S equities and international equities. There's been an increasingly increasing move over the last 10 years into private equity. There's a lot of good reasons why, um, and certainly venture capital with the top managers. And then you have a fair amount of hedge fund exposure to managers trying to earn those equity like returns, but with less correlation to the equity markets. And then you'll see things like real estate and timber investing and real assets. It's really global and completely sort of across the landscape in terms of the different opportunities that these people will pursue

Anthony Scaramucci: (11:10)
For the individual. Ted, do you think the 60, 40 classic portfolio allocation model is dead? Is that in the museum now? Or is that still life to be breathed into it? Yeah.

Ted Seides: (11:24)
I mean, there's an argument. You could make that any of these portfolio structures have a framework that might start with 60, 40, or 70 30 or 80 20, depending on what it is, but just owning the 60 and just owning the 40. It doesn't look very good for the next 10 years now, the problem is we, you know, we wouldn't have, we could have had, we probably did have this conversation 10 years ago and 20 years ago, it didn't look good then either because you really don't know what's going to happen in markets. And that's been a very, very tough bogey for anything else over the last 10 years. But most of the people that look at market history would say the probability of achieving anyone's goals for 60, 40, that's, that's pretty dead, um, underneath what you might do to change it. There's still some risk construct that might look like 60, 40, but you're just not going to achieve it, owning the 60% stocks and the 40% bonds.

Speaker 4: (12:16)
So, so you've done 200

Anthony Scaramucci: (12:18)
Interviews, which is a sensational amount of interviews for some very eccentric people that you've met.

Speaker 5: (12:26)
You're just talking about yourself or the other 199. You see, I got to see them

Anthony Scaramucci: (12:30)
At the top of the list in terms of the exec tricities, but, but tell me some of the memorable quotes, tell me some of the memorable observations, tell me when you clicked off the microphone and said, okay, wow, I've got that in the can. That's going to be relevant or timeless. Give us some of the, uh, stories from your podcast. Amazing

Ted Seides: (12:52)
Thing about the podcast is without, you know, without, um, stretching. I think I felt that way. I'm probably 175 of the conversations. And part of that is having been in the business for 20 years and knowing great people to talk to, you know, who have really interesting stories to tell. So there's a lot in it. One of the things I did in the book there's the book is structured in three sections are sort of a toolkit, which are disciplines and skills that CEO's need that you're not taught in the investment world. There's this investment framework section I talked about. And then there's this last section, which is called nuggets of wisdom, and there's 184 quotes that come out of 3,500 pages of transcripts of some of the most interesting quotes across investing and life lessons. And, and then at the end of that, there's a top 10 list.

Ted Seides: (13:41)
So there's a little bit of everything. Um, but just to give you an example of one of those kind of frameworks, that's distilled in a quote, and I'll give you two examples of quotes. One of the most surprising things that I found from doing this conversations is that everyone talks about being a long-term investor. Almost no one is able to invest for more than let's call it a three to five-year horizon because the whole governance structure that goes into a decision-making process for investing has a lot of people involved. And if you're, if you underperform for too long, and it doesn't even matter if you're an endowment with a multi hundred year horizon, you're not going to be in the seat for too long. And so people have condensed that time horizon. So one of the great quotes, Andy golden, who manages Princeton and Princeton's endowment said to finish first, you first have to finish. So let me give you a slightly more colorful version of that. That's in the book from a young aspiring good-looking gentleman named Anthony Scaramucci, who you, you may not remember this quote, but it came from

Speaker 5: (14:42)
The show. Here we go. You ready for this very good hair?

Ted Seides: (14:47)
You said we're in the investing business, but it's sort of like in the fashion business, skirts come up and down in our industry.

Speaker 4: (14:56)
And

Ted Seides: (14:57)
That's the same framework to say, look, you can't be wrong for too long in this business, because if you just are, if you're just a, the like long skirts do, you might be out of favor, you know,

Anthony Scaramucci: (15:11)
You and I were at the trial three at Della art day talking about this very topic because in 2007, everybody was investing like an endowment at 75 year horizon, 2008 comes. Now we have a 75 minute Arisun and everyone wants their hedge fund manager to have an ATM machine in the lobby of the hedge fund. Then we're going into private equity. Now we're going into crypto, which we're going to get to in a second. But yes, I do think we're in the fashion industry. There are trends, uh, on top of, uh, the fundamentals of investing. And then the other issue for me, which I would add is that everybody is a long-term investor 10 until they have short-term losses. The minute they have short term loss, if they start freaking out it yet, uh, which SkyBridge experienced in March of last year. Now I will point this out.

Anthony Scaramucci: (16:03)
And you know this about the way the world works. There were five obituaries written about SkyBridge after our disastrous, March of 2020, we're up like 40% since then, no one's writing about the Renaissance. Trust me. Okay. It's just the way it works in our lives, but Dorsey's is chomping at the bit here. He's got that beautiful background behind him. I'm stuck in the large conference room with the microphone. And I want to make sure that my producer puts the word in there because this is for John Dorsey right now, but I got two last questions for you. Your career, I think has been absolutely fascinating. You worked at the Yale endowment, you were in the hedge fund, seeding business. You made a bet with Warren buffet. You're now doing something that I think is even in my mind, more fascinating because it was an academic lilt. What you're doing, describe your career to us and tell us what's the future for Ted sites.

Ted Seides: (17:01)
Wait, uh, well, you walked through it. I don't need to do that, but what, but what I'll tell you is in my early years, working for Dave Swenson, I got really lucky to learn the business the right way, learn great lessons about investing before I had bad habits on my own. And, and it's so fortunate to have a mentor like that earlier in your career. I tried direct investing after business school. I worked at a private equity fund that worked at a hedge fund and I was surprised, but it just wasn't for me. I didn't enjoy it as much as I enjoyed investing in people. And then as you know, when we first met, I guess it probably was about 20 years ago. Um, I was in the hedge fund business and what I found from doing it, I love the investment process. I love investing in people.

Ted Seides: (17:46)
Um, the end goal of let's just make more money. Let's just make more money for our clients. There was just something slightly off now don't get me wrong. It's fun to make money. It's great to have it, but I never felt a hundred percent fulfilled in that. And I didn't know what to do when I left. We talked about, yeah, should I come join? Or it's when I left. And I was like, I'm not sure I want to do the same thing. The podcast came out of that. And it took, it was, I was doing it alongside of a bunch of other investment

Anthony Scaramucci: (18:16)
We're snap people. We were trying to recruit you because I think you're, I think you were growing with guy. I mean, you know, books ahead, keep going. Yeah. So I was doing a bunch of other questions you said no. So I don't know what that actually means about me and Darcie, but that's a keep going sideways. I wasn't

John Darcie: (18:32)
Here at the time. He might've come. If I was making the [inaudible]

Anthony Scaramucci: (18:37)
Let the guy finish. Okay.

Ted Seides: (18:40)
So the podcast came out of it. I was doing a bunch of other investment projects all along the way until about a year and a half ago. And then really from some of the people I had on the show, some of the really talented leaders guys like Shondra and Thomas at Northern trust asset management and Greg Fleming at Rockefeller capital, who I've just become close to. I realized these great leaders do the same thing. That's part of what I put in the book. You know, they create a vision, they repeated all the time and they motivate people using it. And so I started to think very carefully about what is it that I'm doing and what do I enjoy about it? And I came up with this, this idea of the vision of capital allocators to learn, share, and implement the process of elite investors.

Ted Seides: (19:25)
Um, learning is a lifelong thing for many of us implementing is the process of okay, taking those lessons and investing what's different today. From what I used to do is sharing. And I come from a family of teachers in many ways, and I have found that incredibly gratifying. So you then take that and put it together with a bunch of, you know, values, to statements that how you want to behave. And I, and I looked through that and I said, boy, what this is really about is what I refer to as compounding knowledge and relationships. So what I found is that if I'm entering into relationships, whether it's people on the podcast or the investments that I'm making, you know, for my own account, I'm not so interested in transactional things. I'm not interested in investing in something that I don't really know who the people are, but they might generate great returns.

Ted Seides: (20:16)
I'm interested in finding things where I can contribute to the success of what they're doing. And that can compound over time. That the relationships that I have are, you know, multi, like antsy, we've known each other for 20 years, you call me and say, you know, email me and say, Hey, you want to come on salt talks? And I say, of course I do. Right. I get those requests all the time. And 90% of the answer is, you know, I don't have time for that. So that's what matters to me. And then what I found is that when I focus on the compounding of the boy, oh boy, the returns have been amazing and it's not so much like, am I investing in something because I think that's going to be the highest return. I do invest in things where my instinct tells me they're going to be, you know, very good outcomes, but it's that, that development of the relationships and the development of the knowledge and sharing it and what comes from that, that's just excited me. Like nothing else I've ever done before.

Anthony Scaramucci: (21:11)
Well, I was uncomplicated by you coming on, but I, I, and I also feel that you're, you have this intrinsic value about yourself, um, um, is there's a common sense wisdom to the things you do. So this is my last question that I am going to turn it over to John, lots of young people, uh, on Ted, uh, when you're getting young people advice about the investment oral in terms of what to read and how to grow their careers and those good habits that you're talking about, uh, share with us some of that, uh, advice and mentoring wisdom. Yeah.

Ted Seides: (21:47)
Well, I mean the, the things that I learned and I would say, I wish I learned them a lot earlier in my life. Um, for a whole bunch of reasons. Mentors are really, yeah, mentors are really important and, and the other one for me, and I think like a lot of my audience is male. I'm hoping to diversify that over time, but I think it's true of men. Um, it's okay to ask for help. You know, in fact, it's great when you can't make good decisions on your own, in a vacuum. And I, for whatever reason was terrible at asking for help throughout my life. And, and that's a big one that I have. I'm constantly pushing myself now. And lo and behold, when I do that, wow, you get to answers faster, you get better answers and you really get to involve people in what you're doing. So, you know,

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:36)
It's a male thing by the way.

Ted Seides: (22:38)
I do a little bit. Yeah, yeah. Definitely more than female. I mean, it may not be all men, but it's certainly true for me. I'm only going to point the finger at me rather than generalize it. Um, but I think that's a big one. And then when it comes to people's careers and, and you know, this passion matters a lot more than money, you know, when people ask me, what would you do? You know, if I were starting off, I wanted to follow what you did. Howard marks has this great line about, like, what would he tell someone who wants to start an investment fund today? He says start 40 years ago because you always want to be in a place, um, where there are tailwinds. So, you know, we, whether we're going to do it with John, we should talk a little bit about crypto because that's, you know, interesting.

Ted Seides: (23:18)
But the industry that we're in, that we started in doesn't have the same tailwinds that it did, you know, 30 years ago. And so, you know, I, I think that's fine. If people are passionate about it, they love what they do or what part of the investing world they occupy. There's nothing wrong with that. But if they're just doing it thinking they're going to get riches, because there are very wealthy people who have succeeded in that over time, you know, they may find that 10, 15 years down the line and they put their blood, sweat and tears into it and they didn't get that outcome. That's if they were outcome focused, instead of process focused, like we talk about in investing, you got to think about that with your life as well. Great. Go ahead, John. All right.

John Darcie: (23:57)
Well, yeah, Ted, it's a pleasure to have you on, uh, Anthony asked you about the podcast and some of the more memorable quotes and learnings that you have from those podcasts and having listened to many of the episodes, I can agree with you. There's something profound that comes out of each one, but what's something that surprised you as a common thread, either across many of your interviews or a few of your interviews about the way people think about investing. Yeah.

Ted Seides: (24:21)
The biggest surprise to me was that when we look at these chief investment officers, we think that they are the top of the food chain, that they are the decision maker. And what I kept hearing over and over is this notion of the governance challenge. And I wasn't sure exactly what that meant. And so I started asking certain questions about, you know, where are you getting to? And ultimately what you find is that you could have an investment team that an investment office managing billions of dollars, that they want to invest in the SkyBridge crypto fund. And they've done all the work and you've met with them 10 times and they tell you, they're about to, you know, they're about to invest. They're going to make a recommendation to their committee. They go to the committee meetings, it's totally opaque to the entire money management committee, unless you have money managers that happened to sit on these investment committees and the recommendation gets turned down.

Ted Seides: (25:18)
And so they've put all this time and effort in, and in fact, they weren't able to make the decisions they wanted to make. And so that governance challenge of how do you work with a board? How do you communicate with them? How do you define roles and responsibilities? How do you make sure your incentives are aligned? That is something that was far more challenging than I had understood. And part of that was because a piece of Yale success is a very effective governance structure. And so I was never privy to these situations where the governance, it doesn't work seamlessly in my entire career until I started talking to all these other CEOs and you find out, wow, yeah, they're sitting at the top of the food chain, but they also have someone to answer to. And most of the time in the money management world, the managers have no idea what that piece of the process is like, right.

John Darcie: (26:09)
Talking about, you mentioned the SkyBridge Bitcoin fund, and I want to talk about crypto for a minute. So you you've launched a series of, uh, episodes on your podcast focused on crypto and Bitcoin. Uh, and it's, we've done the same thing on salt talks, just the demand from the community to learn more about the asset class is astronomical. And I think our friends over at Morgan Stanley have experienced the same thing in terms of their clients and their advisors clamoring to have an offering on their platform. And they were the first recently to announce that they're onboarding to Bitcoin funds to make it available to their clients. Why did decide to launch into the crypto world? What's the feedback that you're getting from people in the institutional investment community about whether this is a investible asset class. There's obviously a wide range of opinions on Bitcoin and crypto, but what are you hearing? And what's your view on the asset class?

Ted Seides: (26:59)
Yeah, let me give background, cause I love showing my own hearing melody. Uh, we had a wonderful chief technology officer at protege guy named Alexi Biederman brilliant Russian guy. And in something like 2012, he said, I want to do a luncheon. We did these talking luncheons and I want to talk about the Bitcoin. We were like, okay. And he gave this talk and I was like, can we, can I just go back to work now, completely missed it in 2012. So I started paying attention, um, really in 2017 when Bitcoin was running and I, you know, through the podcast is how I originally met. Patrick O'Shaughnessy is a dear friend of mine. And he had done this fantastic miniseries called hash power before he did it. He and I did a bunch of hikes together and he was explaining to me what all this stuff was.

Ted Seides: (27:46)
So I was, I was really interested in it. I bought Bitcoin for the first time. Then I bought and sold it since. And throughout that time, um, I should, as an aside, I'm on the advisory board of block tower capital, which is one of the leading hedge funds in the space. And I S I joined their advisory board in early 2018. And throughout that time, Ari Paul, who I had in, on the show in the miniseries and Matthew gets his partner would say to me, Hey, we want to get a group of these institutions together to talk about crypto. And I would kept telling them, no, one's interested. No one's interested. No one's. And I could explain why, but no one's interested. No one's interested. And then around the turn of the year with this most recent surge in Bitcoin, what, what I found talking to a lot of these CEOs was they started getting, they started asking the question, okay, I remember 2017, this thing ran and collapsed, and now it's back again.

Ted Seides: (28:40)
This is technology what's happened. What's happened with the technology infrastructure. And so even from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, Matt gets said to me, Hey, can we bring together a bunch of people to talk to Michael Saylor from micro strategy? And last year I said, no. And this year I said, yeah, it's time. And we reached out to about 30 CEOs and every single one of them either participated in this or sent their number to, to participate in it. It's still early innings. And so what I found was that the investment case, let's just say, Bitcoin, they're starting with Bitcoin is the, exactly the same thing as it was in 2017. So you could think about it as a hedge against Fiat money debasement you could think about it as a, another venture capital type opportunity. And then because of the money printing and COVID, and the rise in Bitcoin last year, people said, okay, I now have to take this seriously.

Ted Seides: (29:36)
And lo and behold, there's been a lot of infrastructure development, you know, across custody trading, everything you would need. Um, so that it's closer to being ready for institutions. And so what I wanted to do was dive in and just keep it simple. Like what, for an institutional perspective, what do they need to like, what's the macro case. I had Eric Peters from one river on now, how do you get entry at Michelson and China for sound to shine from, um, gray scale and then two hedge fund managers, Ari, Paul and Seth. Jim's like, okay, if you're an active manager in this space, what are the opportunities where are the inefficiencies? And I'll, I'll do more of these episodes over time with great people in the space. And so what, what I learned was, um, that it's almost ready. Now. There's a question of, it's almost ready for what, and I would say that in the, the level of understanding of people start with Bitcoin, they, they look at Bitcoin as this interesting asymmetric hedge in this portfolio of risk assets.

Ted Seides: (30:44)
That one way or another is dollar based and say, wow, you know, if this really continues, maybe this is digital gold, and I'm going to need to own some of that. Um, very hard to price. And we know all the, all those issues, more of it, you say on top of it, after 2017, so much money came into the space from all these ICO's that if you talk to the people in Silicon valley, what you find is something like 20% of all the super talented programmers and engineers are doing things in blockchain protocols. So that's a classic venture investment of just follow the talent. This is where the talent is going. I can't tell you, I know anything about what that means for the development of applications of the blockchain, but you're starting to see improvements in the base layer protocols. You're starting to see everyone talks about defy, decentralized finance.

Ted Seides: (31:36)
What does that mean? Lending on the blockchain, um, um, trading payment platforms. And then I get to bring it back to my real world, hedge funds and investing. So the best example I could give to people is everyone has heard about what happened with GameStop and all the stocks around game stop. And you could ask the question of why could a stock be 140% short? Why could there be 140% short interest? Now it's entirely possible. It comes because stock can get lent more than once, but stock shouldn't be able to be led more than once. So shouldn't stock lending, uh, tracking stocks, tracking, stock ownership.

Ted Seides: (32:23)
I went, of course it should. And I'm sure that 10 years from now that the record heard of who owns what stock will be in some type of technology where it's not just that I own a share of Berkshire Hathaway. It's I own that chair. And if I lend that share, there's a record that shows, you know, the person I lent it to can't go read, lend it again. So there are all these little things that I started to understand that said, wait a minute, this makes sense. You've got all this talent working on it, you know, developing technology that I'm never going to understand. And I know I'm never going to understand. So the institutions start with Bitcoin. They then say, oh, all of those protocols are getting built today on Ethereum. And you know, maybe, maybe there'll be another technology that's better. And there's all this.

Ted Seides: (33:10)
I don't even understand that. So I, today I own about 80% Bitcoin and 20% of Ethereum. And then as you start to learn more, you say, whoa, what's the stuff with NFTs. And I had a long conversation with Ari about how is it possible that I could go, I was kind of like, what's this NBA top shots. Like, what is it? And I went on their website and I watched this amazing clip of Zion Williamson blocking the shot way into the stands. And that was somebody bought that on the blockchain for $250,000. I said, wait a minute. I just watched the clip. It's the same clip. It's not in the glass case, like a Honus Wagner baseball card. Just, I understand that. How is that possible? And you start to have conversations about what's the difference between a Picasso and a forged Picasso. What's the difference between a Birkin bag and a mockup Birkin bag that came from the same factory and you start to realize, wow, there is something to scarcity and branding, and it's not any different with NBA top shots than it is with a whole litany of things that have had value in the eyes of the holders for many years.

Ted Seides: (34:16)
So you start pulling all these threads and as you get a little bit deeper, people get more interested and they realized this could be, you know, web 3.0, this could be the next big ecosystem. So you start to pay attention as you're an institution, you start with your venture capital managers that you trust Chris Dixon at a 16 Z that's when, when Yale was in the press three years ago for ingesting and Bitcoin, they didn't, they just invested in another venture fund. And now you see Bitcoin purchases and we're going to see more and more. I think there's a tidal wave of coming into this whole ecosystem over the next five or 10 years.

John Darcie: (34:50)
So Mike Novogratz came on salt talks, and he obviously deals with a lot of institutions relating to Bitcoin. He launched a galaxy, as you know, the pitch for him was you have all these other players in the space. I was at fortress. I know the institutional community. I know the type of touch and experience that you need. He made a comment that he thinks that only 10 to 15% of whales in the Institute of institutional community, so that it could be insurance companies that could be endowments. That could be pensions. He only thinks that 10 to 15% of those who are invested in Bitcoin have publicly revealed their position. So you have 85% of those are long Bitcoin, but haven't announced it yet because of concerns around the stigma of Bitcoin or ESG concerns, whatever it may be. Do you think that's accurate that people in the community are invested into Bitcoin more than we realize, and they just are still reticent to disclose it? Or what do you think the adoption rate within the institutional investor community is? Well, the only

Ted Seides: (35:49)
Way I can answer that by saying, if it's not disclosed, neither Mike, nor I know the answer to that, right. Um, I, you know, Coinbase basis sponsored my show, they sponsored the mini series and Brett fall, who Oak, who runs their institutional sales is a good friend of mine. So recently there was some announcement that there were a few institutions that owned Bitcoin directly. Um, and that I know is true because I was able to confirm it, um, with Brett. Um, I have heard anecdotally that there are a lot more institutions that do own Bitcoin directly in particular. Um, but I have no way of knowing the order of magnitude at this point in time.

John Darcie: (36:31)
Right? So you talked about how COVID sort of poured gasoline on the adoption of cryptocurrencies and decentralized finance. You know, it was something that maybe was inevitable, but all the money printing and the move to a completely digital world sort of accelerated adoption, which we're seeing in the price of cryptocurrencies over the last year or so. How did the COVID-19 pandemic also influence if at all institutional investors approach to investing as it relates to different factors? So obviously the value factor hasn't performed nearly as well as technology and growth factors have, uh, since the onset of the pandemic, is that caused a longterm monumental shift in the way these endowments and pensions and insurance companies are looking at portfolio construction, or do they take a long-term enough view that they're like, okay, we can't have a knee jerk reaction to every micro trend in the market. Yeah.

Ted Seides: (37:24)
So in theory, they, they, it shouldn't affect it, um, that they do take a very long-term view. And that having a long-term view means that you ride through these periods of time. Now let's circle back to what Anthony said earlier, which is when you guys got hit at March, 2011, March, 2020, all these long-term investors start saying, oh, you know, let's, let's right. Let's go, let's write to a wary for SkyBridge. And it's just not the case. So what was really interesting, and I did this both in a miniseries last year, and it's a small chapter in the book on kind of crisis investing, which is in theory, they're all long-term in theory. They all stay the course. In theory, they're not performance chasers. That's what everyone wants to be, what actually happened, um, in COVID. And that's only one example because in the markets and particularly public markets sold off dramatically, but then they came back.

Ted Seides: (38:18)
So maybe you could say, that's not that hard of a period of time. And so what I found was talking to baby, maybe a half a dozen CEOs in that moment of time. So April of last year, what I found was they all had the same playbook of how they were managing that period of, so we'll start there and broaden it out. And that was, you start by gathering as much information as you can. People have to calibrate, where are you in your portfolio? Um, what's happened with your assets and some of that's just technology. Do you have the infrastructure to understand your performance, which managers are doing badly, this particular, when people had to pay careful attention to liquidity, because when you can't go back to school and school becomes a virtual, what does that mean for the revenues of the academic institution, which is never something that an endowment manager, you know, in the last 30 years had to think about, right?

Ted Seides: (39:10)
If you're managing a hospital pool of capital and the entire efforts of the hospitals start going towards treating COVID patients and all of the, the high profit margin elective surgeries go away. How do you think about investing the assets when the structure of the, the P and L of the institution has changed? So that's, that's a big step. And before you can even say, I want to make a change in my portfolio, you have to understand where you stand. Then they go into talking to their existing managers, what's happening. Are there opportunities? There were things sold off more than they thought. So they're mining their own portfolio. They, they then have like a wishlist of, oh, these are the top venture capital funds. I always wanted to invest in. Maybe other people are getting shaken out. Now let me reach out to those special managers and see if there are any opportunities to invest.

Ted Seides: (40:02)
And after all of that, they then engage. And when I say engage, they might make a decision. So all of that comes before changing anything in the portfolio. And what I would tell you is this time around, they didn't even get to the bottom of the list before the markets came back. So the biggest difference between these types of investors and say, hedge fund managers, hedge fund managers are in the market every day, they pay attention to what's happening. They're trying to capture an efficiencies. These investors have such long time horizons that they don't need to pay any attention to what's happening in the market in a short-term period of time, even in something like that, that was like a 20 or 30% sell off in the markets over just a few weeks. So the sh the long answer to that short question is absolutely nothing has changed.

Ted Seides: (40:48)
Um, what we saw, right? Everyone has talked about how the trends in place from technology accelerated during COVID. And that's true. So people now think about, well, growth stock investing value stock investing in, right at the point, there's always happens right? At the point when everyone was ready to leave value investing for debt, there's been such a bounce in value stocks that I think value just outperformed growth for the period, going back to January of 2020, because there's been such a strong move. So markets are cyclical. The skirts go up and down. There's only Anthony can say, and most of the people in this seat just, you know, over time they stay the course, they, they stay diversified. So they don't have to make those calls. They're going to have a value manager and growth manager, and one's going to perform well. When the other one isn't

John Darcie: (41:36)
Last question I want to ask you also related to the pandemic and the future has to do with investment due diligence. You know, the most exciting topic that anybody can talk about, but it's, it's fascinating, Anthony. I happened to be in the office today. We're, we're standing 200 yards apart from each other, but we're on different computers doing a, and

Anthony Scaramucci: (41:55)
The fact that he took it, better location, better room rate. That that's how he is. He's just, he's a selfish, selfish millennial. Okay. Here I am. As a struggling baby boomer, struggling, go ahead, Darcie, keep going.

John Darcie: (42:10)
But, you know, during March of 2020, as Anthony talked about, our portfolio got hit, we were heavily allocated towards stuff like structured credit. There was basically a lockup in those markets, despite the fact that we felt that those assets weren't fundamentally impaired, but, uh, in a lot of cases, when you're talking to sovereign wealth funds or pensions or endowments, they, uh, you know, they were reallocating capital to strategies and managers. They knew they were doubling down on things that they were intimately intimately familiar with. But the, at the beginning of the pandemic, at least doing due diligence on new funds was challenging for a lot of firms that are used to in-person meetings and, and an old way of doing things. How much have they adjusted to this idea that investment due diligence now is going to be done on zoom and virtually? Are they comfortable with that? And is that going to be part of the future? Are we going to continue to do these zooms, uh, you know, zoom, uh, due diligence meetings even after the pandemic hopefully ends or, or, uh, are we going to go back to the old way? Yeah.

Ted Seides: (43:10)
Um, I think for a long time throughout most of last year, uh, the, your average CIO was deeply uncomfortable with making a decision to invest in someone they hadn't met before. Um, and they would just hold out, hope that by the time that their, their cue was done and they needed to make changes, like if this lasts for a couple of years, they certainly were going to have to figure out a new way of doing things. Um, I don't think it will change that much. And you can, there are really interesting theoretical questions of whether that's right. Like, do, do you really get a lot of value face-to-face meeting that person? Is there more in the dynamics? And I, I think what people would say is that the part of the assessment that goes with trying to figure out how a team works together is very, very difficult to do virtually it's very rare situation. When you can have an Anthony Scaramucci on a Scot on assault talk and, you know, pretty clearly what this guy is like day to day. Most people aren't that authentic and transparent with themselves and how they're going to work with their team, especially when they're trying, you know, they have a goal to raise money from you and they're going to put their best foot forward. So if there are frictions, it's so much easier to hide them by not having those people on the camera

Anthony Scaramucci: (44:31)
Life. If I was less authentic and less crazy, is that what you're trying to say? Sirens,

Ted Seides: (44:36)
Those are two authentic and crazy are two different things. That's your choice.

Anthony Scaramucci: (44:41)
Most people are crazy. Let's just stipulate that. And what they try to do is hide the crazy correct. We let the crazy go out. Maybe, maybe we'll have a pepper conference before this is over. You never know.

Ted Seides: (44:53)
FinTech is a very healthy thing. I

Anthony Scaramucci: (44:57)
Agree. And it, and that you had that in spades. My

Ted Seides: (45:00)
Friend appreciate it. So, John, I think to come back to that, we're now at this funny point where people have gotten more comfortable with the notion that they can take the risk of knowing that they don't know everything by investing in something new on zoom at the same time, where now you could look six months out and say, Hey, we may be able to travel again. I do think there's going to be incredible, uh, reduction in all of the travel, um, because there is a fair amount of like, if I'm going to meet a manager a times before I'm even going to think of investing, there is no reason at all, why can't do two or three or four of those over zoom, because you're going to basically get same dominant information. What's going to be interesting to see is on the other side, on the manager side and their business development efforts, managers love the fact that they haven't had to travel, uh, public equity.

Ted Seides: (45:52)
But, you know, really when you're talking to private equity guys, but you know, how many they get, they go on a road show because there's a finite date to close a fund and they have the same conversation, 150 times. Um, and so the question is really going to be if the personal connection ultimately matters in winning that sale, who's going to be first. And as soon as you know that one manager's having success, you better believe everyone else is going to be jumping on a plane right behind them. It'd be fast followers. So I think it's really hard to know at this point in time, um, how that will all play out once, you know, hopefully this is mostly passed and we can move around safely. Uh, but I think it will be a hybrid. You know, I don't think we'll go back to every decision is done over zoom, right. Uh, but, but it's been a challenge in, it's created an acceleration of kind of the winners and losers in this field, as well as, you know, a lot of life because all of the new investments are extensively. All the new investments that got made were in pre-existing relationships. If you didn't have the relationships going into the pandemic, it was really hard if not impossible to raise money, you know, over the last year, year and a half, I guess, a year.

John Darcie: (47:05)
Yep, absolutely. Uh, in fascinating stuff, maybe the rise of the introverted investment manager and people that don't have to necessarily wow. People in public and can live more on the strength of their performance, uh, in their process. But Ted, it's a pleasure having you on again, the book and the podcast, both of which are very much worth your time. It's called capital allocators. The book also with the tagline, how the world's elite money managers lead and invest. There's no one that knows that world better than Ted. So we highly recommend you go out and read the book and become a regular listener to this podcast. Anthony, you have a final word for Ted before we let him go is it's

Anthony Scaramucci: (47:40)
Great. It's great to have you on. And, uh, I'll take another run at you when you get more real, you can do your podcast here at SkyBridge, by the way. So I'm just letting you know that recruiting offer still stands Mr. Site,

Ted Seides: (47:52)
Hey, say it through John. Great, great to be with you, Anthony. It is always a pleasure and always a good laugh. We'll put

John Darcie: (47:59)
Them on the spot. He has to come to our salt conference, which is coming up in September. You know, we sorta took a leap of faith late last year and booked the Javits center expansion, which is a new, great venue. They built out over there at Javits with a beautiful roof terrace. That'll help everybody's social distance and all that stuff sort of right. Coming after labor day. Hopefully everybody is chomping at the bit to get back to in-person events. So we'd love to have you there today. Of course,

Ted Seides: (48:23)
It's my pleasure. I says, I said, I know, I don't say no to Anthony often if was trying to capture my whole life. That could be a little tougher, but, but absolutely

Speaker 5: (48:30)
It'd be fun to do it. We'll never know

John Darcie: (48:36)
Anthony out of the recruiting pitch this time and maybe it'll be a little bit more successful, but anyways, Ted, thanks so much for coming on. Thanks again, Ted for joining us today here on salt talks and thank you everybody who tuned into this talk, I'm sure plenty of allocators and managers watching this show as listened to his podcast every week. So we highly recommend again that you read his book capital allocators and listened to his podcast, capital allocators, both tremendous resources, uh, both for people in the industry and people looking to understand, uh, how institutional investors allocate capital over the long term. Just a reminder, if you missed any part of this talk or any of our previous salt talks, you can access them on our website@salt.org backslash talks and also on our YouTube channel, which is called salt too. We've posted all of our episodes there for free. We're getting great engagement and growth on our YouTube channel. So please spread the word as well. Uh, if you find any of these episodes interesting, including this great episode with Ted, please spread the word about salt talks. We're on social media as well. Besides, uh, YouTube, we're most active on Twitter at salt conference. We're also on LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook, and on behalf of Anthony and the entire salt team. This is John Darcie signing off for today. We hope to see you back here soon on salt talks.

Roxanne Davies: Investing for Family Offices | SALT Talks #187

“I started getting interested in [digital assets] watching my children. To see how they play video games and value certain things.”

Roxanne Davies is the managing partner of Parly Singapore, the Asian investment arm for the multi-century-old European family office (SFO).

The rise of digital assets is better understood by the younger generation of consumers. The inherent value of a video game skin in Clash of Clans is more easily understood and that paves the way for the normalization of the larger digital asset world. That change in mindset as a consumer trend will have a major effect on investing. Depending on a family office’s risk tolerance and tech savvy, digital assets like NFTs will likely become part of investment portfolios. “I started getting interested in [digital assets] watching my children. To see how they play video games and value certain things.”

Singapore is set up well to become involved in the burgeoning digital asset space. It’s a digital economy and regulation is designed to facilitate innovative wealth.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Roxanne Davies.jpeg

Roxanne Davies

Managing Partner

Parly Singapore Pte Ltd

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

Rachel Pether: (00:07)
Everyone. And welcome back to salt talks. My name is Rachel Pether and I'm a senior advisor to SkyBridge capital based in Abu Dhabi, as well as being the emcee for salt, a thought leadership forum and networking platform that encompasses business technology and politics. Seoul talks as a series of digital interviews with some of the world's foremost investors, creators and thinkers. And just as we do at our global salt conference series, we aim to provide our audience a window into the mind of subject matter experts. Today, we're going to be focusing on family offices and digital assets, and that includes everything from the spectrum, from cryptocurrencies to NFTs and digital art. And I'm very excited to be speaking to Roxanne Davies. Who's the managing partner of Polly Singapore. Now Roxanne as a seriously impressive woman. She's a senior investment professional with multi decades of experience running family offices and ultra high net worth departments within private banks.

Rachel Pether: (01:11)
She moved to Asia a little over a decade ago to set up and run Polly Singapore, which is the Asian arm of a 900 year old European family. Based out of Switzerland. She's been a speaker at multiple industry conferences, including salt sits on the investment committee of several global family offices and has held a number of board positions. She has a master's degree in finance and an MBA from at Geneva, and if that's not enough, she speaks four languages. Roxanne, welcome to soul talks. Thank you, Rachel. Or maybe we could start by you telling me a bit more about you and providing a bit more color on who you are.

Roxanne Davies: (01:53)
Um, sure. Thank you. So I, um, have been working with families for about 30 years. I was lucky. I ended up in this incredible family office when family offices, weren't really a word. Um, you know, in the late eighties, early nineties, and this family specifically put about a billion and a half to work in, um, alternative, um, assets, uh, private equity, hedge funds, et cetera, and you know, had offices around the world. So I was able as a foot soldier to kind of learn and grow with this industry. And my focus really was on research and risk management. So I had to do deep dives into, um, hedge funds and how they work and how people are thinking and how these great brilliant minds are thinking and who, how to recognize talent and solve problems. And that was really the start of my career, which took me to, you know, Asia as well as Brazil and Russia and so on, so forth. So I was, I was fortunate, you know, you're obviously

Rachel Pether: (02:55)
Very international, so you're Swiss, but you're born in New York and you've lived all over the world. What originally took you to Singapore? Was it as part of this family office? Correct.

Roxanne Davies: (03:06)
We purchased a listed financial services company around 2009 when we had a very complex operational structure with managed accounts globally. So the, the component of a fund administration technology was important to us. And we thought that a, we bought a list of financial services company, which had a trust license, which we thought was an excellent mid to back office solution for families where we in the process sold it a few years ago. But, um, you know, we are still, I would say this family is a highly progressive family when it comes to operational and, um, you know, admin and, you know, where are your custody and your assets, how it's custody and how it's structure, how are you executing trades? This, this type of thing is a, is a very important part of the investment process. And

Rachel Pether: (03:57)
You mentioned that you're, you know, you're on research and risk management, but the traits that you often use are like problem solving and, and finding talent, given that you've worked with family offices for so long, maybe you could talk a bit about what are some of the skills that you think are really important when working with family offices? That's a really

Roxanne Davies: (04:20)
Great question. And I really feel like it depends on the art type of the family office in itself. What do they want? And in the ideal world, I would say the EEQ component, as well as the IQ and investment management expertise for both the main, um, you know, two of the most important parts of the, uh, of the equation to have a great long-term family office professional, but essentially you have to have a character that is flexible, and that is able to, you know, um, operate in a non institutionalized framework in a general sense. There are plenty of family offices that are now highly institutionalized, you know, um, very, very well organized professional backgrounds, but most of them are flexible. And so you need to be able to work from home or work from anywhere, or be able to handle, um, various different tasks when they come to, you know, when they come to your desk or office, basically.

Roxanne Davies: (05:19)
So you have to deal with different family members and the issues around them. So it's a person, it's a people job. And then on the other side, um, problem solving is a, is a large word for anything that's investment related. You have to have the curiosity and be able to understand how things work, be able to derive parallels across things that you find, you know, that you see evolving, for example. And, um, having been in the alternative asset management industry, I have seen a lot of things that look similar to me. They may not be exactly same things. If you talk to experts that ever going to be able to, you're never going to be able to compare, let's say Hadoop to blockchain, but we look those factors as similar factors as to how did that change the universe of data analytics versus today? What are the applications and, um, businesses that can be built on a distributed ledger system, for example, as a pew, as opposed to a digital file system.

Rachel Pether: (06:16)
Yeah. And I'd love to go into a bit more detail about that distributed ledger technology. Cause I, I know this is an area you're very passionate about as well, but I thought what you said about AICCU was really interesting, I guess that applies both externally on the investment side, but also more importantly, as you mentioned, sort of navigating the family dynamics and the family politics as well,

Roxanne Davies: (06:39)
And as much as you can, you should avoid those things, but sometimes you can't, but then DEQ also comes to play with as an allocator. And I've been doing the allocation to hedge fund managers, private equity managers, fund managers in general, um, or company CEOs for a long time. And you are, you know, you have limited time with them and you have limited, um, ability to sort of sink in as much as you may want to. So you have to, after thousands or hundreds of interviews, you kind of get your red flags up and that's a something that you really can't quantify. It's an art versus a science, but it's extremely important to sort of be able to recognize new talent. That's a very important part of what we do. We have seeded many managers, um, many of them very successful. Um, and you know, that that's an area where I think that we, you know, they want investments or seating managers. We were very successful. And, um, I was lucky to be, you know, with some of the great managers and their very first day of trading. So I feel very good about that. Wow.

Rachel Pether: (07:46)
That's amazing. I'm sure it was a combination of, of luck and skill, but you're right. I mean the seating manager business, as many of us know is a very, very tough ones. So it's certainly difficult to spot both the talent and also the underlying investment thesis as well. And you know, what I thought was really interesting is that you mentioned that the family that you work with has invested or decided to invest quite some years ago, $1.5 billion in alternatives. And I know you were really, I mean, maybe saying one of the runners is perhaps a bit strong, but I do really think you are one of the leaders and the sort of digital assets cryptocurrency space. So maybe rewind a few years and tell me how you first got comfortable with the space and what was your own research and risk management process leading up to it? So,

Roxanne Davies: (08:35)
Um, the 1.5 was absolutely, and the head Trent and private equity world, and that was, um, you know, a different family. This family has dabbled and we certainly haven't been comfortable with, um, you know, large scale institutional investments in this area, but we've been looking at it for a while. So, um, we have direct and indirect investments. Um, personally I started getting interested in it, um, watching my children to be honestly, uh, to be honest with you, um, just seeing how they play games, how they, you know, value certain things. So for them, for example, a skin is akin to an NFT. Um, the skins are valuable, um, the way they play games, the way they trade mining, the way they communicate with people that they don't know how they can cooperate in certain specific clash of clans type of game, for example, in the day.

Roxanne Davies: (09:33)
So I've just watched how some of these games were developing and even something like Minecraft, for example, many, many years ago when my kids were playing that some, a friend of mine had built out the Minecrafter YouTube social net. So there were these very famous influencers on YouTube that represented Minecraft. And I believe the whole concept was similar, which is the Minecraft or, um, lady Gaga would actually bring in the advertising, um, revenues to themselves, right. As opposed to be able to give, let's say a YouTube or another, um, platform full rights and, you know, um, revenue. So it was really, that was kind of a social net, which we thought was an interesting model that company and specifically, um, has changed names and changed, um, DNA a couple of times, but the concept is the same. We still think that this is an interesting, you know, development and then steam. It was also from Dan Larimer, the similar concepts where the creators own the information, own their own information and are able to share it and get revenue back. So that brings us to the NFT world. Um,

Rachel Pether: (10:47)
And before we dive a bit further into the NFT world. So when your kids come to you asking for say birthday or Christmas presents, is that mainly in the, in the physical world or the digital world? Whereas there where's, their focus depends

Roxanne Davies: (11:01)
On the child, but, um, most of most, both of them and most of the kids that I know. So all the nieces and nephews would be focused more on the virtual than the physical. And I've had comments throughout, you know, the last, uh, few years, um, like, oh, you know what, I don't want your RMS bag, or I don't care about this art piece, or I wouldn't want any of these things. And I actually believe that there's a, a change in philosophy and a mindset of this generation that I think is very interesting consumer trend. Um,

Rachel Pether: (11:35)
And I guess you've got that cross generation sort of split or dichotomy with your global perspective. Have you also seen a divergence or difference between cultures? Like, do you think that Asian families are more comfortable with alternatives or digital assets than say and Americans? For example, I

Roxanne Davies: (11:56)
Think that the Asian family offices are as likely to invest in these as other families. I don't think it's a cultural thing to go for it or against it, it will really depend on their risk tolerance and their access. So access is not as easy as it was for example, to set up a Coinbase or Cumberland or crack and et cetera. So some of those, um, exchanges and custody's that are considered somewhat safe were not accessible by everybody. Um, so it really just depends on the specific family. Um, however, I think that, um, there has been, so in China they had more than 50% of the trading volume globally. So this, so China representing a big part of what, um, what we're talking about when we talk about Asia, definitely there are highly, highly advanced and Binance, for example, Neo, et cetera. These are all Chinese or Asian, um, you know, innovations and companies. So I would say it's on an equal footing. Um, however, on a regulatory front it's different. So is it considered a collectible? Is it considered a currency? Is it considered a security? How's it going to be taxed? This tax make a difference? Um, what are the main reasons for, you know, the buy and hold? Um, that kind of thing is, is different. So I would say that would a family office now collect digital assets, um, like an NFT, like be part of it people purchase.

Speaker 4: (13:30)
Yes,

Roxanne Davies: (13:32)
I, uh, there was, you know, a few months ago, a friend of mine was talking to me about a Japanese artist that had created these tokens, that he was very interested in and, you know, they bought them, but I still think that it's still, it's still early days.

Rachel Pether: (13:47)
I'd love to go into the Japanese artist side because you did share some of those pictures and videos with me and they were amazing. But I just wanted to ask a quick question on the regulatory environment within Singapore, because it is actually a jurisdiction that Abu Dhabi has looked to emulate as well, particularly on the financial regulation front. So maybe tell me a bit about what is it about Singapore in particular that makes it such a good place for digital assets, whether that's purchasing or storing or custody, et cetera. The

Roxanne Davies: (14:22)
Port is of course, a very rational wealth management destination. That's there, that's the very, um, important goal for Singapore as a country. And it's been on the innovation it's ranked on the highest innovation lists. It is a digital economy, um, and it puts its money where its mouth is. So there are, you know, there's a complete push from all parts of the government and sub-parts specialized to really, um, uh, bolster the digital economy. But that necessarily mean only crypto. So the project you've been is a Singapore dollar, uh, digital effort that's been going on for several years, maybe even five. So it's, it's to say that there has been a lot of experimentation on the side, similar to the digital one, which has been test marketed in a couple of cities in China. So the, the main currency separate from that would be the, then the payments component of it, right?

Roxanne Davies: (15:20)
So it's a unit of exchange, it's a transferable asset, so to speak. So Singapore already in 2018, 2019 updated the payment services act, um, looked at how to license looked at features. And it has to take its time on a regulatory basis to really assess, you know, the cybersecurity issue when there were plenty of, um, uh, hacks and fasts and that's not okay. So how do you handle the cybersecurity? How do you handle the AML CFT component for kind of the dark web and all the illicit, um, you know, trading that was, that, that is kind of linked to this in the main, you know, headlines, but not, aren't really, um, you know, where the potential of, uh, of cryptocurrency and blockchains lie. So how do you tax it? How do you create a legal framework? Um, what are the AML and CFT, um, protocols that are need to be used?

Roxanne Davies: (16:19)
Um, how do you resolve a dispute? What is a dispute framework going to look like that type of thing needed to be tested? So today I would say they're testing a lot of the blockchain technologies on this. Um, whether and Tamasic is intricately involved in all of this, um, out as are some banks SGX, um, the Singapore exchange, et cetera, and DBS. One of the main banks, I think was one of the first to get the recognized market operator as a legitimate digital asset, um, exchange and broker dealer, so to speak. So you, you know, the licensing component versus given so that they can test, run a few of these to make sure that their, their economy doesn't get negatively impacted by reputation or, or by actual losses. Yeah.

Rachel Pether: (17:09)
And I guess it's, it's quite hard for a regulator to maintain that balance between sufficient, robust regulation and innovation I do, then that's something Singapore has managed to do pretty well on that side. As you say, it has a great reputation. It is an excellent private wealth destination too, so they can't really afford to have any reputational risk damage or any scandal and the, you know, that, that digital asset regulatory space, right.

Roxanne Davies: (17:38)
And then there's the overseas. So how do you connect with others? Um, so they have to also be, um, they're, you know, uh, cognizant of what the us is doing or what Europe is doing and what China's doing. They have to bring all of these features. And so it's an ongoing and say, it's fluid

Rachel Pether: (17:57)
You Alicia, and date. And so now we can move on to the really fun stuff. Uh, you mentioned the, the, the artwork, um, the Japanese artists, and you actually shared an incredibly impressive digital painting with me last month. I think it was. So let's now sort of pivot slightly towards, towards digital art. And where do you see as some of the areas, the greatest areas for growth in the digital asset world, and maybe talk a bit more about the digital art space as well.

Roxanne Davies: (18:31)
The digital art spaces is fascinating. Um, however art in itself can be art. The physical art world has been manipulated for years. So the digital art world, you know, you have to, you definitely need to be careful. Do I think that there is, um, do I understand someone who would buy an initial, um, JPEG of, of the first tweet or of, um, the, the artworks of, of, of people I do get it, it's the first, right. So it's kind of interesting if you're in the collectibles business. It's interesting now you, you know, you can always look at various different perspectives to say, you know, who's, you know, who is actually, um, incentivized to make sure that this is a market that, that, you know, booms and so on and so forth. But again, going back to my children, um, if there was a skin, for example, in one of their games that they could buy and keep for themselves, or there was a limited edition, I believe because most of these are owned still by the game companies.

Roxanne Davies: (19:34)
Um, however, if there was a means to have this owned by themselves so that, you know, they could then play and that either had some super power to it or, or some aesthetic component to it, I do believe that they would go insane over something like that. So, um, so I do see that this as much as, for example, for the older generation, including myself, it's sort of a head-scratcher, um, I do understand how they, um, this generation, the younger generation would value this, um, you know, have value this for the long run, because this is coded in their culture, in their DNA. And Asia, I would say particularly is, um, is incredible with collectibles and especially art. Um, they, they just love that. And, and the Pokemon's of this world, et cetera, they're all. And a lot of the extraordinary games are really, um, you know, uh, created here and played here and then taken very seriously here.

Roxanne Davies: (20:32)
So, you know, the, um, e-sports et cetera, this, this is not a, it's not a hobby, this is a commerce, this is a real industry. So I think that that's and FTE is here to stay that being said, is there going to be manipulation and issues linked to this? Yes. Um, you know, of course this is just the beginning of this world, but if you think about, let's say an Andy Warhol, um, foundation, could they create one image that, you know, that is the original image of a digital, um, you know, iconic, uh, an iconic digital image and then sell it. Sure. Why not? Is it worth it? I don't know.

Rachel Pether: (21:15)
Yes. And maybe, you know, for those on the phone. And I must admit that I am part of the older generation that you mentioned, and B I only know about people because you told me before about it, but for those that are listening, that aren't so familiar with people mania and the people's story. Could you talk us through that and how has, how this gentleman became a bit of an icon, but he's

Roxanne Davies: (21:37)
A digital artist and, and lately, and I think, uh, most of your, um, listeners and users, uh, and viewers would have seen this, it was on financial times as well, recently that there was a Christie's auction of all his visual art, um, over the last 13 years for like $69 million. And, um, he's just a digital artist with a following. And, um, it's, it's kind of interesting when you think about art. And this is more of an art question as in some of the art that he does is not supremely original per se. But for example, my son told me that it's actually not easy to do what he does, right. So is it more complex, do this in a digital way versus in a physical way? So there's a technique component and so on, but it was really a congregation and a collection of digital art by an artist that is, um, well known in the certain, you know, uh, specific digital art, loving world.

Roxanne Davies: (22:37)
And so, um, you know, their, their variety of artists, uh, grinds, who has had a child with Elon Musk, um, a variety of different artists that have created an FTS of some kind, um, to, you know, take advantage of this growing business. And in some cases, I think that they can use them for authentication. Um, for example, Nike is going to be putting this type of chip or some kind of authentication method within their shoes. Um, but in any case, I think that, um, it's a, it's, it's just the beginning of a new world. And the Japanese artists was, it was difficult for him to sell a variety of his art because you, you know, there was a, you had to go there yet to know et cetera, but he found himself on one of the, um, and if T gateways and his art was loved and bought and overnight he became a millionaire.

Rachel Pether: (23:36)
It's amazing, isn't it? How it, I mean, well, there's no such thing as an overnight success, but I do really love the points you made about democratizing art. And I actually just listened to a podcast it's Malcolm Gladwell's revisionist history, and it actually looks at the physical art world. And just how much of that is actually held in storage and not finger pointing at any of the museums, but many of the curators haven't even seen the pictures before, you know, it's just such a closed market. So even some of the great items haven't been on display for years for public to see. So digital ad to me, and just that democratization of the art world is, you know, something quite special that opens it up to everyone. Maybe not everyone can afford, you know, the paintings at the amount that they're going for, but it does seem to standardize the playing field a little bit, but

Roxanne Davies: (24:29)
There's a fractal component to that. And it's a, there's a component for that for real estate or for art that you can buy a piece of it. Um, as opposed to the entire side, I mean, there is something called bit rot. So technically an image will, um, decrease in its in its value and beauty over time. But it's the same thing with physical art. Um, and to your point, this democratisation concept is an interesting one when it comes to the crypto world, because it is intended to democratize, but it isn't really, since it's, you know, a handful of minors, for example, that control, um, you know, Bitcoin and, and can control, for example, certain aspects about when there are releases of certain things and how they can act maybe in advanced or not advanced, I'm not pointing fingers either, but it is certainly not a democracy. And whether the digital art world will then also be somewhat in the control of a few, um, savvy players, so to speak. Um, you know, I, I thought we reached the top of the market when the banana was a scotch taped to the wall. Um, but you know,

Rachel Pether: (25:40)
We always think we've reached the top and then something more ridiculous happens and we realize it wasn't, but it actually does. Just one more point, I would really like to go back to the democratization point, but you also mentioned about Jack Dorsey's first tweet. I believe it was, was optioned for 2.5 million. So he released that as a, as a piece of digital, uh, I mean, it does seem quite toppy, right. Is this, um, or do you think this is, this is just the stat or maybe it was just a well timed release from his side? Well, I believe

Roxanne Davies: (26:20)
There was an article that had talked about it, um, prior to it's really, so I don't know the chicken and the egg story with that one, but I do understand the first of something. Right. Um, and having a tweet from the first tweet from Jack Dorsey, the founder of Twitter and Twitter becoming the phenomenon that it has become. And Jack isn't limited to Twitter, right. He's developed and it's on the board of major companies, but, um, that seems like, I don't know about the actual value of two and a half million. I can't really apply on that. Um, but I do think the first of something like that has its value. Now it can become a historical, um, instrument and historical token over time and saying, oh, this was the first of this type of things. First of I'm the founder of this major social media platform, it can have a historical component to it and it can, you know, it, it can have value. I'm just not sure how it would work in terms of gaining value over time. Yeah,

Rachel Pether: (27:28)
No, that's a great point about the first there's always sort of value in that. And I just let a couple touch on a couple of other points. Um, you know, you mentioned about, is it really democratization because it's still controlled by just a handful of players. I know that always used to be, or was historically quite a bit pushback of cryptocurrencies as it was controlled by a few whales who would manipulate the price, but we've sort of seen that market evolve as more players come in. Do you like, do you think that where we are now and say some of them in FTS and some of the digital art pieces that it's just because we're at quite an early phase in its development and, or do you think that it's, it's always, it would be very hard to democratize a digital outward and in the same way, it's been hard to democratize the physical world. So it's,

Roxanne Davies: (28:24)
Again, the gateways. And I think though the digital art component is a little bit easier because it's really the creator that creates something and that it can be tokenized and then distributed, um, for sale. And so I think that that is actually the easier part to control. Then let's say a Bitcoin that was, you know, subject to very, um, expensive hardware and, um, engineering ability to, to mine these Bitcoins. And then they're part of a community that needs to validate in the proof of work, et cetera. So, so that part of it is, is really, you know, um, and it's like a federal government and the states and their powers, right. So you can kind of think about it in that sense or, um, it's not a democracy, it's just a different type of central bank. Um, and there have been issues linked to, I mean, I have read not an expert, but I have read about for example, software updates that weren't happening or other issues that were blocked by, um, potentially by these minors, um, these very powerful minors.

Roxanne Davies: (29:32)
And, um, some of them may, may or may not have led to the volatility of the price of the, of the cryptocurrency, whether or not we're going see the kind of volatility we did in the beginning to something like Bitcoin, you're going to see volatility, but is it going to go back to out? I just don't know when I would be very surprised, especially because the office of the currency and controller or CCS, um, has basically allowed, regulate, you know, allowed for banks to hold, you know, cryptocurrency. And that's a big change in the framework and the regulatory framework in the United States, because it now has, has basically blessed this as an asset class, but I just volatility will exist. Um, going back to the Hadoop, um, uh, analogy, Hadoop in what it was great for that part is obsolete. So it's very hard for me to understand whether today's Bitcoin blockchain will not become obsolete at a certain point in time.

Roxanne Davies: (30:30)
Does that mean the value of Bitcoin will go down as a result? I don't think so, but I just don't know what I don't know in this situation. And I think that that's a, that's an important part. So you can't as a risk manager, um, increase, um, even if you think something's going up 100%, 300%, 500%, that's hope it's, it's a prediction. It's not a, you don't have any kind of, um, roadmap. And so you have to be careful about how you're implementing those strategies, but I definitely think that we're in a very different world than we were in before.

Rachel Pether: (31:03)
Hmm. I think you're showing your wisdom Roxanne by saying you don't know what you don't know. And it was an interesting point that you raised about the banks. Do I think over two week period, it seemed like every day, one of the new blue chip fortune 500 banks was making an announcement. You know, we had Wells Fargo, Citibank, JP Morgan, Goldman. They're all kind of coming on one by one.

Roxanne Davies: (31:29)
I think you guys announced Charles Schwab as well. And as an alternative, Charles Schwab is, which is a huge, huge firm is smaller than Coinbase, but like it's a third of Coinbase, its size and Coinbase is going for direct listening. And to that point, I believe I read somewhere that there was a, a big whale within Coinbase with whose holdings were linked to Satoshi's holdings and they could be valued at $46 billion. So what would happen in a situation like that? If those became Bitcoin got transferred, it's just, it'll be interesting to watch how that direct listening goes and what happens. But so far there, you know, they are number one in terms of exchanges and the many of the companies treasury have purchased their Bitcoin in the cold wallets, Coinbase is allowed or has.

Rachel Pether: (32:22)
Yeah, I think, I think everyone would just be so excited if it, if it meant that we found out who Satoshi Nakamoto was, they probably wouldn't, they probably wouldn't care. It was, it's been such a long, you know, decade long mystery kind of thing. Um, that I appreciate where, you know, we've, you've given up so much of your time, so generously already, but I would like to ask, you know, you have been investing in FinTech companies, you've been investing in cryptocurrencies, you've been investing in digital assets. What are you most excited about now when you look at the investment opportunities, uh, and the sort of digital world.

Roxanne Davies: (33:03)
Um, so I have actually learned that there is a lot, there are a lot of very interesting, um, developments that I think are amazing. However, where I personally would focus my attention on would be in the financial services sector, because I do understand that world in a granular basis and the family office that I've been working with for the last 15 years understands that at a granular basis. So we would understand the smart contract world that is needed in fund administration or a variety of kind of boring, but yet essential, um, essential, uh, services that, that, that are part of financial services. It wouldn't be, um, a smart move for me to spend my time looking at the altcoins from other industries that I don't have that granular knowledge about. So, so we do rely on our manager network and, and friends that have expertise there to look in that, but there's definitely, um, innovations in a variety of different areas that can help bring transparency and, um, an origin to buyer, um, track, track, um, so to speak or trajectory. So for example, we were looking at, um, trade finance as an asset backed, um, opportunity. So today, if you're sitting in cash or cash made in costume money, so you can give to these trade finance firms and they're backed up by commodities and it's sort of a collateralized or asset backed, um, financial opportunity. And so anything that's in that world, we are interested in and we're looking at, um,

Rachel Pether: (34:40)
Fabulous. There's nothing wrong with boring but necessary. That's for sure. Um, well, I, I just wanted to thank you so much Roxanne for your time today has been such a pleasure speaking to you, and thanks for sharing all your, your knowledge and insights gained from spending so long in a family office and, and then the digital asset world. So thank you so much

Roxanne Davies: (34:59)
For having me Rachel, speak to you soon. Thanks. Bye.

The Rise of ESG Investing & Analysis | SALT Talks #172

“[ESG progress] is a policy issue. We need to move a few big levers and create the financial incentives for the free market to solve the problem. Price on carbon would go a very long way in giving entrepreneurs and innovators something to compete against.”

Erika Karp is founder of Cornerstone Capital Group, bringing the disciplines of finance and economics together in pursuit of a more regenerative and inclusive form of capitalism. John Streur is president and CEO of Calvert Research & Management, specializing in responsible and sustainable investing.

ESG investing has started entering the mainstreaming among investors and investing strategy, but it needs to accelerate. This requires investors to understand the value and pragmatism of adopting a truly impact-oriented approach. It is important for the dialogue around climate change to focus on reforming whole systems rather than judging an individual and their behavior. “I believe that all investing has impact. When you look at the environmental, social and governmental factors in an analytical way, you realize this is really important to be a good investor.”

Public policy enacted by government is the most important way to address the dangers of climate change. Relying on the current market to deliver solutions is insufficient. Enacting a carbon tax is one of the most effective tactics to create a market structure that incentivizes innovation around truly impactful ESG-centered growth.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKERS

John Streur.jpeg

John Streur

President & Chief Executive Officer

Calvert Research & Management

Erika Karp.jpeg

Erika Karp

Founder & Chief Executive Officer

Cornerstone Capital Group

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darcie: (00:07)
Hello everyone. And welcome back to salt talks. My name is John Darcie. I'm the managing director of salt, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance technology and public policy. Salt talks are a digital interview series that we launched in 2020 with leading investors, creators and thinkers. And our goal on these salt talks is the same as our goal at our salt conferences, which is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And both of our guests today, uh, are two people in the investment world that are shaping the future through their pioneering work in the field of ESG. So we're very excited to bring you this episode. ESG investing has become a huge part of the investment mandates of institutions that we work with, uh, on salt and that come to our conferences and, and tune into our salt talks.

John Darcie: (00:59)
So it's a very relevant conversation as I think we'll find out, uh, from the dialogue that we have today, uh, with Anthony. So our two guests are Erica Karp and John stroller. I'll read you a little bit about their bios before I turn it over to Anthony. Uh, Erica Karp founded cornerstone capital group to bring the disciplines of finance and economics together in pursuit of a more regenerative and inclusive form of capitalism. She's a wall street veteran of 25 plus years, and she developed a deep belief in ESG analysis as a critical input to investment decision-making over the course of her career prior to launching cornerstone, Erica was a managing director and the head of global sector research at UBS investment bank. She chair the global investment review committee served on the UBS securities research executive committee and served on the environmental and human rights committee of the UBS group.

John Darcie: (01:48)
Executive board. Erica holds an MBA in finance from Columbia university here in New York and a bachelor's in economics from the Wharton school at the university of Pennsylvania. She recently recently joined the board of directors of conscious capitalism as well. And though she works with a variety of different organizations ranging from the UN to the Clinton foundation on a variety of, of, uh, ESG and sustainable finance initiatives. Uh, John [inaudible] is the president and chief executive officer for Calvert research and management, a wholly owned subsidiary of Eaton Vance management, specializing in responsible and sustainable investing across global capital markets. John is also president and trustee of Calvert funds as well as a board director of Calvert impact capital and chair of its audit and finance committee. Uh, John began his career in the investment management industry in 1987, before joining Calvert research and management. He was president and CEO, uh, with Calvert investments is a founding member of the investor advisory group for sustainable accounting standards board SASB then a group of leading asset managers, uh, committed to improving the quality and comparability of sustainability related disclosure by corporations for by investors is also one of the eight members of the leadership council of the impact weighted global accounts initiative.

John Darcie: (03:06)
Uh, so I think these are two guests that I think better than any guests we could have on salt talks will be able to give us the lay of the land across ESG impact and sustainable finance investing. John earned his bachelor's from the university of Wisconsin, college of agriculture and life sciences. Uh, so thank you both for joining us here today. Hosting our talk is Anthony Scaramucci, the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge capital, a global alternative investment firm. He's also the chairman of salt and if you've been watching salt talks, he needs no introduction. And without further ado, I'll kick it over to you, Anthony, to conduct the interview. Um, I'm still mad at John Dorsey for telling John and Erica that I failed the bar exam because I was out water skiing in Manhasset bay. So that wasn't a nice thing to do. Okay. I'm trying to be like, I want to tell you to bring up the first impression with these people and you had a fire that in there to make me lose some of my confidence in this interview, you know, cause I'm obviously a little shy and introverted. So let's start with you, Erica. Uh, tell us about your background. Why did you become impact so passionate about impact oriented investing?

John Steur: (04:13)
You know, so I came to sustainability and impact in a really organic way. You know, I believe that, you know, all investing has impact, right? And so when you look at the environmental, social and governance factors in an analytical way, uh, you realize that this is really important to be a good investor. You know, when you think about revenues and costs and risk, you need to think about ESG factors. So as a director of research, I'm just trying to push people to kind of earn the right, to make an investment call. Tell me what you know that nobody else knows. And so when you go down there and you try to find out what matters around ESG factors, it's first of all, endlessly fascinating. Secondly, it gives you serious predictive insight. Thirdly, you start to realize that you can combine your investments with your values. And so, you know, I got there in a way that's really very organic. It's not about ideology. It is about values and it is about pragmatism.

John Darcie: (05:15)
Uh, same question for you, John.

Erika Karp: (05:17)
I think the, um, investing business is a business about understanding, change, understanding what's changing around us and understanding how companies are likely to navigate that change. So for us, ESG investing is about understanding a company's management of critical functions and factors that allow us as investors to do two things, understand how they're managing these risks that are changing and evolving, but also to participate and help drive positive change. A big part of what we do at Calvert is engaged with corporate to try to get them to improve their operations in ways that address these critical environmental and social risk factors. So that concept yet they to really be involved in innovation, helping to improve the system that we all participate in and drive positive change that relates to financial value creation really brings together all of the best elements of investing in participating in these capital markets. Are

John Darcie: (06:29)
We doing enough? And what I mean by that when I sit back and I look at the landscape of where we are as a society where we are in the environment, uh, we have a group of people that are in the ESG world, but should the whole world be in the ESG world, I guess is what I'm saying? I mean, are we doing enough? And if we're not doing enough, how do we do more? And that's a question for both of you. So I'll start with Erica first and then John, you can respond and add on.

John Steur: (06:57)
So the answer is no, we're not doing enough. Um, but part of it is because we need this massive consciousness raising exercise, right? So I said that all investments have impact. It's a question of knowing, is it positive or negative? And what is it? So if you have to understand kind of the magnitude of what we need to be doing, I mean, just think about climate, right? So if maybe over the past year, a $500 billion was invested in alternative energies, right? Well, we actually need that number to be about 1.5 trillion. If we're going to get anywhere near where we want to be. And we think about these other big initiatives towards water and energy and infrastructure, education broadband, we need billions, something like seven, uh, excuse me, trillion suddenly like 7 trillion to move, to have the kind of impact we need. That said there is some consciousness, but it hasn't come to the mainstream yet it's starting, but we need to move a lot more money, a lot faster. Um, so there are certain things that we need, like infrastructure, like standards, uh, for disclosure like leveraging AI, leveraging social media. So there's this, um, this fierce urgency of now that hasn't been infused into the economy yet. Um, I think we're making progress though.

Erika Karp: (08:21)
Yeah, I agree, Erica, we're not doing enough. Um, what is it, what is enough and how is this really going to play out so far? We're relying entirely on market-based solutions. Of course we believe in market-based solutions, particularly in the United States. Um, so we're following the playbook that we've used, uh, particularly since the 1980s, what can be done to change that dynamic and what are the things that are needed in order for us to do enough, um, a carbon tax, a price on carbon at the right level, um, would facilitate an even a more aggressive response, uh, from the market. Uh, Erica mentioned regulatory. We haven't yet built the market infrastructure to facilitate Anthony doing enough. Um, but we're not far from it. Uh, I think it's very encouraging to think about the fact that we're doing what we're doing without regulatory help without having built the necessary infrastructure and without having put a tax or a price on carbon.

Erika Karp: (09:30)
So what we're experiencing right now is something that is led by investors. As I said earlier, completely market-based if we can make a few policy adjustments, which I think most people in the capitalist system want to see made, I do believe that well, uh, allow us to continue to operate within market-based solutions and significantly accelerated. And I would just add one element, which is any quality. Um, we are operating way below our potential because of the massive financial and other inequalities in our system. We can begin to address that. Um, also through these solutions, I think we can improve the lives of literally billions of people across the board. Um, so in addition to the environmental concerns, the, um, inequality issues are significant.

John Darcie: (10:26)
So I, I just started reading this, uh, which is, uh, bill gates, his new book on how to avoid a climate disaster. And so I guess my, my question to both of you again, same sort of question is Mr. Gates is obviously a brilliant guy. The book is very well written. There's a lot of practical solutions in here. Um, but we seem to have lots of forks in our roads in terms of going towards a more sustainable climate environment, more ESG, if you will. And I think some of the critics of Mr. Gates would say, well, he's got a portfolio of homes. That's second to none, very large in scale, a fleet of private planes. He owns the four seasons hotel complex among other things. Uh, is he the right guy to be writing about climate change? And so then the question is, what do we do? Uh, do we sit in a small room that has, uh, um, solar panels on the top of it? Um, how do you, how do you reconcile billionaires that are writing about climate change that are flying around on private planes, et cetera? What do you say to people?

John Steur: (11:35)
So I got to tell you, I have no issue with this because there is no such thing as perfection. Everything is on a scale of, you know, good, not good, whatever we don't have to be judgmental. And what I would say is if we can bring transparency and an honest dialogue to this, we're fine. It's okay to have your toys as it were, but it's better to be, you know, transparent, talk about your toys and figure out how we can get your choice to be better. Right. And so what no, but

John Darcie: (12:07)
Eric, I mean, should I be living like Teddy Kaczynski? You remember the unit bomber and like a small shack somewhere in the middle of nowhere, not using that much energy, having an outhouse,

John Steur: (12:18)
I would have to. All right, again, I go back to this issue of transparency. There's a lot of stuff that people don't realize that we have to get, get out there first. Um, there's this stupid notion that using ESG analysis, um, is in some way, giving you, um, concessionary returns false to the notion that ESG analysis is, uh, against a fiduciary duty, totally false, right. Three, that you have to be a purist. That is not the case either. If we're trying to move kind of the, the quantum of the capital markets, right? So we can, you know, have our lifestyles try not to be judgemental ideological, but let's make progress. And the single most important thing we need to understand, not that this is simple, but we have to have systems change. Everything relies on everything else. We can't get to climate. If we don't talk about a women's economic empowerment, we can't talk about a broadband.

John Steur: (13:22)
Unless we talk about data privacy and human rights, we can't talk about, you know, one of these sustainable development goals that the UN has put out without talking about the complexity and the interrelationships. So this is complex. There's no such thing as perfection transparency should allow us to be nonjudgmental and have system change to get, for instance, to a circular economy one day where there won't even be a concept of waste. And by the way, I should tell you, I am a little bit of a nihilist. So in terms of a climate crisis, unfortunately we're already there. There's a lot of bad stuff that's already baked in. That doesn't mean, you know, we will wipe out, you know, humanity, uh, probably, but, um, there's a lot of work to do.

Erika Karp: (14:13)
I, um, if you don't mind me, Anthony, I would, um, take a little different position. I don't think bill gates is the guy who's going to solve climate change. Uh, I think it would be better if the bill gates and even the Anthony, um, DiCaprio's of the world, stop, stop talking about it. Um, it's not about what an individual says or does, and it really doesn't matter what you do with your air travel and those types of things. Um, so getting the liberal left out of the picture, staff talking about it, this is a policy issue. We need to move a few big levers and create the, um, financial incentives for the free markets to solve the problem. As I said, earlier, price on carbon would go a very, very long way to giving us something for entrepreneurs and innovators to compete against it's policy makers right now that are needed more than, you know, rich, famous people talking about the problem and telling us about their pet solution. So I think, um, I'm going to stop there. Uh, I've got another book for you, by the way. I see your in your library, the new climate war by Michael Mann came out about the same time as gates' book. He's a professor I'm not getting the kind of publicity that gates is getting be more consistent with my thinking.

John Darcie: (15:42)
All right, well, well maybe we'll get him on assault dog. I'd love, love to meet him. Love to talk to him. It'll also force me to read the book. Uh, we, we, I will point out that we did invite Mr. Gates on assault talk, but, you know, cause I have a little bit of a roguish personality. I'm somewhat unpredictable. I would say that the chances of him coming out assault talk are 0.0, but one can hope, but let's continue on this. Cause think this is important for me. And I'll start with you, John, are corporations stepping up to the plate and adapting better ESG frameworks, John? Or is it lip service?

Erika Karp: (16:16)
I think there's a little bit of both. Um, so I think companies for a long time at the operational level at big, quite a bit attention to how they use resources, operational efficiency, but it's all been based on economics. Um, so to the extent that fossil fuels have been cheaper than renewables, those are the decisions they've made to the extent that it was much more profitable to pursue a product line or service that had negative impact on the environment. That's what they've, they've pursued. Um, that's a very, very slow change to, uh, to think about happening. So while companies are providing us more information about how they're managing these very risky activities, um, and they are doing a better job of managing those, they're not really making the big changes needed to protect the environment and to create a better, more sustainable future for, for all of us. Do we have any, it's a little bit of both, they're doing a much better job managing these risks, but they're still involved in a big, big way. An actual change is very slow to come.

John Darcie: (17:27)
Is it a drop in a bucket Eric Erica, or do you think it's,

John Steur: (17:31)
I think it's more than a drop in the bucket and there's certain pieces of infrastructure that we've needed to help. So I was, um, uh, a founding board member of the Salisbury, the sustainability accounting standards board. And that is about having, you know, trying to get standards for corporate disclosure of material ESG factors. That that is very helpful, but setting standards take a long time, but again, getting good data comparable and projectable data, um, is an important thing because that goes into, uh, the ratings and the indices and then the products that are created. So we have a long way, not a drop in the bucket, but it's helpful. And then what you're starting to see is that the leading corporations are figuring out how to truly, um, um, change or adopt their business models around ESG issues. They are starting to align compensation around ESG issues.

John Steur: (18:27)
They are starting to ask questions that are specific to industries, to companies around the risks and reward opportunities. So you ask different questions of, let's say a hotel or an airline industry. Um, then you ask of a, um, uh, mining, uh, or shipping company or, you know, a technology company. So understanding how to zero in on what matters, what is material is really critical. And in fact, there's been some good research, uh, uh, George, Sarah from as an example, um, put out a piece that talked about, um, the fact that companies who give us data on issues around sustainability that are not material to their economic outcomes, actually underperform rather than not putting any data out whatsoever. So we want companies to report on the stuff that matters. Um, and, and again, it's, it's still early days, um, but it's, it is more than a drop in the bucket. So,

John Darcie: (19:28)
So John last year, uh, we saw according to the financial times is not my information, but I read it in the financial times, a 17% reduction in carbon emissions. You'll correct me if that's accurate or not, but that's what I read, uh, is that sustainable? Uh, obviously it came from the pandemic, uh, or we smarter now or who are working more efficiently or are we going to be on our Airbus three eighties, the middle of the pandemic breaks and traveling around the world? Uh, is there anything that the world's learned from the pandemic that can make our societies more sustainable and more energy efficient?

Erika Karp: (20:10)
Well, I certainly think the pandemic makes very real these risks, right? So we all know that really bad things can happen if we don't attend to risks associated with all of these behaviors and certainly the, uh, the storm in Texas and what happened with the Texas grid, uh, it just makes it very, very real and we can see it happening. Um, so I do think it, it, it does make a difference, but the carbon reduction number is simply because of the economic slowdown due to the pandemic. And as soon as things bounce back, um, those numbers will go right back up. And as we bring of millions of people online into the industrial society in China and India, those energy systems are still primarily driven by coal and fossil fuel. Even though they're also deploying a lotta renewables, you know, the, the, the concept of bringing all these people out of poverty and into the industrial society, we can't change the energy system fast enough with the current policies to keep up with that growth in the industrialized world. So dropping the bucket, those numbers don't bounce right back. Um, and we haven't done nearly enough. So

John Darcie: (21:24)
Erica, I've got you in charge of everything. Okay. You, you look like somebody that would like to be a Georgia. Everything has to do why by the way. So that's not a, it's not an attack, it's just an observation. And so now you're the czar and, uh, let's go with what John is saying about public policy and, uh, I've already ordered the book, new climate war by Michael. How did he say his last name? Mark and Michael. Okay. So I just, I just, I used my Amazon, which is going to burn up a cardboard now and they're going to start their engines and they're going to have that book to me tomorrow. I'm going to open up the cardboard and plastic and throw it in the garbage. I'm going to have the book sitting here next to these other books. And because it's about the climate and I'm Catholic and feeling guilty about my consumption, I'll be reading it, but you're now the czar of all of this. And so go ahead. What are we doing from a policy perspective to move people towards what you and John are doing?

John Steur: (22:25)
Well, um, big question and, um, I definitely don't run stuff anymore. I'll give you a little headline. Cornerstone is going to be merging with Paston. Uh, so that's a new headline for you, John. You're smiling. I'm glad in any case, we're I to be running stuff. I think John is right first carbon price. You know, I think that that comes first. It's the biggest, it's the biggest impact we can have initially. Um, secondly, you know, I talk about a more regenerative and inclusive economy that inclusiveness critically important because the kind of income inequality and wealth and economy inequality we have is growth killing, right? So that inclusiveness is key. What I would do, and coincidentally, what we have done, uh, at cornerstone pat stone, is that we've created a framework where we think about the idea of access. All right. So a single common denominator to get to these huge global challenges I would argue is access, right?

John Steur: (23:31)
So the whole world needs access to clean energy, to water, to education, healthcare, capital, um, access is where it's at. So I think what we have to do, if we're going to use the private sector, so we're gonna have for policy going to have, um, uh, carbon pricing, uh, for the private sector, we're going to have disclosure. And particularly, we're going to start thinking about what is a company doing to give access to the system. So SDG the sustainable development goals, number 17 is about, um, uh, collaboration. And I think that's, what's so critical. So companies need to understand what's their contribution. What is the true cost of, um, of what they're creating? I E those externalities, um, that, that they're giving out. And by the way, I don't know how we're going to answer this one. And it's partly why I am I not as us, but if the, um, if the emerging world has consumption patterns that are like the Western world, honestly, I don't think there's anything we can do to recover from that. Um, meaning, you know, is humanity kind of not long for this planet, honestly, it's possible. Um, but I think those are the couple of things we can do to get public sector, private sector. Um, moving forward,

John Darcie: (24:54)
John, are you as pessimistic?

Erika Karp: (24:57)
Um, probably not as I don't know about pessimistic, but, um, you know, the incentive that got us here is money. Um, and I think the incentive that will get us out of this is money plus data. There's two things I would do. Uh, yes, I, I put a global carbon tax on things and I allow it to ask light and use that tool, which is just an amazingly powerful tool, um, to create change at the pace we need to see change and work within the system. We've got the second tool that I think is going to become more powerful than money is data information, uh, mean we need to, and we are doing it. And this is the other piece that's changing that I think can facilitate the kind of change we need at the speed. We need check out impact weighted accounts initiative. We're running it out of Harvard business school.

Erika Karp: (25:55)
Sarah FIM is, uh, is overseeing the project. Serani Cohn, great venture cap player out of the UK is a senior advisor to the project. I'm advisor to it. We're creating the data and need it to understand the impact so that we can have information that's investor useful. It can sit next to the data on the income statement and people can understand the trades they need to make, to work within this incentive system. So, you know, I don't think we're going to get there without using the same incentive tools that got us where we are the profit motive. That's why we need the carbon tax. Second. We need to understand how powerful information is becoming, and we need to use that to the full extent. I think Erica, that's the only way we're going to deal with it. Given what you observed, um, Asia and the rest of the world, coming into the industrial. Ultimately they're going to want the same things that everybody else has and they deserve them, right? We need to be able to adjust the energy system so we can do all that. Let those, everybody in the world have access and do it in a way that won't destroy the planet. We need the, we need the capital incentive and we need the data.

John Darcie: (27:17)
Well, I have to, I have to invite my colleague, John Dorsey into the conversation because we've got too many baby boomers in this conversation. So baby boomers are just planning that next generation us baby boomers have had a frat party with the, with the world. We now want the millennials to live on Sunday morning in that frat house with the bond smell and the beer stain rugs and so forth. So go ahead, young millennial fire away at these baby boomers that are destroying your planet. You guys are always talking trash about, you know, millennials and gen Z, but we're the ones that have to clean up your mess. You're exactly right. Thank you for being self-aware about that fact, Anthony, but, uh, you know, we've talked a lot about the E we've talked a lot about environmental. That's only one third of the puzzle. If you're talking about ESG, I want to talk about the S for a second.

John Darcie: (28:09)
And obviously in the wake of the George Floyd murder, uh, we had sort of an explosion in awareness about the systemic racism that exists in our society. And there's been, you know, more corporate engagement on ways that we can sort of root out the systemic nature of that racism. You know, maybe the idea that we're going to eradicate racism is probably a fool's errand, but we can do more to chip away at sort of the cycle of racism, racism that exists in our society. But we're gonna start with you Erica, on the, the S piece of it. So what are companies doing or what can they do to address issues related to racism and discrimination in our society? Uh, where do you think where you see things heading? Are you optimistic about that? And what can we do in addition,

John Steur: (28:51)
Actually, I am optimistic about this. I'm optimistic about kind of social justice, generally speaking, and that goes to the consciousness issues. So whether it's gender, whether it's race, um, these are critically important for, for, for productivity. Um, and, and even beyond the moral issue, it's a, it's a, it's a functional issue in business. But the thing about, um, racial equity, I think we have to start by acknowledging, um, you know, that white privilege is something that most of us don't think enough about, you know, face it, America was built on white supremacy to some degree. So we really have to start thinking if I, what is that? Who am I, what do I want to be? And arguably moving towards kind of a, you know, a truly multicultural, thoughtful organization, let's talk about companies is a continuum. You know, it starts with organizations that you can see are flat out racist, and then it moves to an organization more of kind of compliance, right?

John Steur: (29:59)
And then it moves towards an organization that is a learning and accepting entity. And then it moves towards a place where you really have, you know, everyone in, at the table in terms of decision-making in positions of authority. And that's how you move organizations forward. It's a continuum. And the idea of accelerating that continuum now, I think is, is very encouraging what's going on. And so for instance, we will do, um, pieces of, of investment research on investing, um, for racial equity. And you really can move your money in such a way that you are accelerating, uh, that continuum. So I am quite optimistic about progress, but it starts with a consciousness. And I think that, you know, George Floyd's murder in front of our eyes, you know, I really think it was a pivotal moment, um, that of, of, of self-reflection. Um, so I am positive on what we can do here.

John Steur: (30:59)
Um, and again, it goes racial equity and gender equity, and not even thinking about gender as, as women's economic empowerment, but it's, it's, you know, old genders, um, LGBTQ eye, all of it. Um, and then when it comes to, um, issues of education and healthcare and all kinds of people of color in the, in the BiPAP world, what's happened with COVID shines and incredibly powerful light on the impact of, um, uh, of, to everyone much, much greater disproportionate impact of people of color. So thank God we're a learning, um, society, or at least I hope we are John.

John Darcie: (31:42)
So I want to go to you on that one. I've I've seen you speak and write very empathetically about just the human side of the issues that Eric had just spoke about. And I think we all want to make sure that, you know, we have a level of equality in our country where people feel like they have access to the same, uh, you know, American dream that everybody else does. But from a practical perspective, you've talked a lot about market forces and how do we communicate to people, uh, about the importance of investing in diverse teams and investing in companies that are going to drive that diversity for? So from a practical basis, how does, how diverse boards and diverse organizations drive better returns? Is that a, is that a fact that's backed up by empirical data and what type of companies can help drive that change as well?

Erika Karp: (32:26)
Yeah, that's backed by empirical data. Uh we've by the way, at Calvert, I want to tell you what we're doing and what we've done since, um, that terrible day, uh, in may. Um, we, we said, we'd do something about it. We've gone after the 100 largest companies in the United States, and we've asked them to disclose their EEO one survey data. This is the demographic information about who has what job within that company, what level and, uh, gender and rates. This is information that these companies have to provide to the EEOC, but they take great pains to keep secret. You can't even get it with a foyer request. So we've asked these companies to disclose it. So as investors, we want to know the answer to your question, which of these companies have diverse teams, which of these companies have recreated a workplace where black people, women, people of color can have jobs throughout the organization.

Erika Karp: (33:24)
We need the data. Uh, we think we've got about half of the companies agreeing, um, to release that data and make that public. That's a first step. Let's get transparency, let's get the data out there. So investors can see it. And people who want to work at great companies who create a diverse workforce, know where they are. They know what's happening. I think we have filed about, um, up to, I'm going to say 20 shareholder resolutions, ready to go to proxy against these teams. Um, I think we've been able to successfully negotiate agreements with about half of the companies we have filed on, as they've also now agreed to disclose this information. So I think you have to take action to make management and boards aware of how serious we are, how important this, um, information is to everybody, investors and employees. I think, I think that action is useful.

Erika Karp: (34:22)
It's helpful. You asked about, um, you know, does a diverse team, is there a case to say a diverse team is better, makes better decisions? Let's just build the business case for this in the us white males have actually been declining in terms of the percentage of the overall workforce. Women are increasing. People of color are increasing in terms of the percentage of the workforce. So if you're an employer, you need to be able to create a great work environment. So you can work across the entire labor market. Additionally, educational attainment by women and by people of color across the board is increasing. Um, so your highly skilled portion of a labor pool is becoming more diverse running a company. If you're only good at putting white males into senior management positions and that all you can do, you're actually not that good. We want management teams that can create a great work environment, get the best out of all people in participate across the board.

Erika Karp: (35:26)
And yes, getting different points of view, hearing different voices really works. Look at Calvert, 56% women over 50% people of color doing well against our investments across the world. We invest in emerging markets, developed markets equity and debt, great track record. We've got a diverse team and we've also done the research to show that across large companies globally diversity works and is, is, and really matters. So we'll have to say there, John, I appreciate the question. Um, things are changing, but we've got to really push these companies hard. Uh, and we needed as investors, right? This is about driving value. This is about improving companies, getting them to adjust to what's changing. Our demographics are changing. Companies are dragging their heels in terms of building the processes. And I just want to close on a really important point. People matter more than ever, uh, book value doesn't matter. Um, what matters today? This is, uh, an idea economy. We've heard it. We know it. We've transitioned from industrial manufacturing to intellectual capital and ideas. It's all about people and bringing the right people together to make it happen, really differentiates companies. So super important point all the way around.

John Darcie: (36:56)
Thank you for that. John is very well said. I think that's one of the unique characteristics of both Calvert and Erica cornerstone and everything you've done throughout your career is being able to apply these principles that can be somewhat subjective or a morphous, uh, on the surface, but really digging down and quantifying the benefit. Erica, when you talk to people about the return benefits of ESG, uh, how do you think about that at cornerstone?

John Steur: (37:20)
Well, I mean, we, again, we're very pragmatic. So if you look at the research and, you know, we did a meta-study of like 1200 other studies, but when you look at the research, um, in integrating ESG factors into analysis, it is unequivocal that you do either as well, or frankly, better, uh, with companies over the long-term when you're looking for, uh, the key factors in ESG. So th the research is unequivocal and think about it. Why would you not want more information rather than less? Right. So what we do like to see for our part is, um, we like to make sure that our asset managers are analyzing companies as deeply as they should be understanding the intersectionality. So it really does take a skilled manager to integrate those ESG factors. And, and again, it's not easy and there's a lot of bad data out there still.

John Steur: (38:18)
So any single ESG factor is not enough to make an investment decision upon, right? You take a factor in ESG factor rating, anything else? It's a starting point for inquiry, but again, all the research shows and it's a little different, different asset classes, but it's pretty unequivocal that you can do better with ESG analysis. Now, what's really interesting is that in some quarters in the past, um, it has been seen as kind of a risk mitigation strategy. That's just simply not the case that said we have seen sustainable strategies outperform in down markets. What if we look at what's been going on in the past year, we've actually seen ESG strategies so-called out before me and the up markets too. Right? And so in our view, um, sustainability, um, is a proxy for quality, for good governance for innovation and for resilience. And that's actually how we've seen these companies and these managers perform recently and again, innovation and the way the market is.

John Steur: (39:30)
So bifurcated now in terms of what forms well and what doesn't right. Innovation is so critical. So we argue that sustainability is again, a proxy for that. And by the way, I should say that in the E and the S and the G that G governance is first among equals. If a company is not analyzing the impact of the E and the S um, themselves, well, they're not well-governed by definition. And so when we do this analysis, the manager selection, diligence, you know, it is a really critical kind of holistic effort. And just because a manager labels themselves as sustainable or impact, that's not what we're looking for at all. Um, it's quite the opposite because about 91% of the products that are called sustainable that have been introduced over the past year are simply relabeling a different strategy that existed. That's not enough in our view. This is why we need these skilled managers.

John Darcie: (40:32)
I have a little more time. I want to ask you each one more question. And John, uh, again, reading and watching a lot of stuff that you've put out there, you talk about infrastructure. So when people hear the word infrastructure, they think about fixing our potholes and fixing our airport. So LaGuardia doesn't look like you're flying into a third world country or, or other physical infrastructure, but I think the pandemic is crystallized in people's minds, even more than need to ramp up our investment in digital infrastructure. What would that do? Uh, you know, you could look at it through an ESG lens, but what would that do for our country, from an environmental, from a societal perspective and our ability to improve governance, frankly, if we invested very heavily in giving everybody fast internet and access to tools in the United States,

Erika Karp: (41:17)
Well, it matters you bet. And, um, I think two things to think about, um, the kind of infrastructure that you're talking about, uh, to the extent that is a use the term transparency earlier to the extent that we can create transparency. It really helps you get the facts. It helps you get to the truth. Um, it eliminates the potential for greenwashing. It puts reality sort of in everybody's, um, the Palm of everybody's hand. So if we can build, um, an information system, they can create transparency and people can really understand what we're doing, why it matters and where the solutions are. Uh, I think we'll be much more likely to get to the economic structure that we need to make these changes, but you also talked about, um, kind of equality, right, getting that big broadband pipe, uh, getting access to that information to everybody.

Erika Karp: (42:17)
Um, and this is an area that is extremely important for us to, um, solve the inequality challenges that we have. We know that any quality in one form starts because of lack of access to opportunity, um, access to learning, access, to information, access to finance, um, in, if we can use our knowledge in our growing ability to manage and distribute real information and data and democratize that entirely, I think we can make significant progress towards, um, giving everybody the opportunity to be included in this capitalist system in this society. Uh, so it's a, it's an important step, but I would just go back to what I said earlier. Um, even though companies have become overwhelmingly powerful relative to government and relative to all of our other governing institutions, like the big NGOs, even though that's happened, we need government to come through for us, not necessarily with big fiscal spending plans or, um, pulling the levers on the monetary system, we need real regulation that will be helpful to create the incentives within our capitalist system. So we can solve these problems. In addition to building that digital infrastructure that we're talking about, we need the government to play its role into sure that the information is accurate, it's helpful, and that we get the incentive structures aligned. So your generation can have the great opportunities that ours has had. Absolutely.

John Darcie: (44:07)
Erica, how do you look at technology FinTech, decentralized finance, and ways that we can use technology to improve what John is talking about, the transparency and the reliability of data and information?

John Steur: (44:20)
Hmm. Well, I mean, like Joan said critically important, and I have to say something and I think Anthony liked this, but, um, Winston Churchill said that we build our buildings and thereafter they build us, right. He's standing in front of parliament after over too easily. And I think that's really, really interesting because what that says is, you know, it, it shapes us when we put an infrastructure in place, it really does shape us. And again, I like, and John likes to use that term access, but, you know, if people don't have access to good data, high-speed data, it, it changes everything, access to health, access, to education, access, to good jobs. It's so critically important that we build this infrastructure. And when we think about technology and the infrastructure around technology, we do have to think about the system, right? I mean, we haven't had a proper public dialogue yet about data privacy.

John Steur: (45:22)
We really haven't, you know, we've just scratched it and we have to have that discussion again, it's about infrastructure. And if we want to bring that discussion over to the investment decisions in the public markets, well, we have to start thinking about companies and here is where we go back to governance. And then we have to think about which business models, which companies engender trust, right? Because the idea of trust in the context of data privacy and an it infrastructure critically important. So the reason I talk about that is just because this is so integral to everything we want to do and, you know, for, for, for cornerstone, well now pat stone for pat stone to think about, you know, our access impact framework to measure impact, well, the idea of, of measuring access, we need AI to do that. And ultimately we need quantum computing to do that. And if the us is spending a tiny fraction on developing quantum computing versus China and the rest of the world, we are screwed in terms of infrastructure. So it's kind of, you know, it's kind of everything.

John Darcie: (46:32)
Yeah. Yeah. Well, I can tell you firsthand from our salt conferences, so many, uh, large investment allocators that come to our conference and engage in our salts ox, ESG impact sustainability is at the forefront of their minds. So in terms of themes that we cover at our events and on our, on our talks, you know, ESG, pervades, everything that we do. So we're very hopeful that we can have you guys at one of our live events here in the near future, as soon as it's safe, uh, to do so, uh, hopefully later this year, but thank you so much again for joining us, Anthony, you have a final parting word for, uh, John and Erica, before we let them go mute. This is, this is why the millennial took over the conversation. John has, Anthony doesn't even know how to unmute a computer muted it because my kids are coming through the door and I've had those moments on live television in which I was trying to avoid Mr.

John Darcie: (47:22)
Millennial, but in all serious to continue the great work and continue raising the awareness of what is going on. And, and frankly, you talk about the situation TA Nehisi coats, uh, wrote an amazing book last year. You said in 1860, the property value of all of the slaves was 3 billion us dollars, and that was 18 $60. And of course that was the largest amount of property in the society at that time. So I just want you to take that and digest that for a moment in terms of understanding where the issues and where the consequences are, not just for the United States, but for the world, as we push more awareness and we push more progress, uh, as it relates to the social and racial justice and also, uh, the environment, you know, and we have to do this, whether we like it or not, if we love our children and our grandchildren and our potential children, we have to continue to do this.

John Darcie: (48:27)
So I appreciate everything you guys are doing. And thank you very much for joining us on salt talks. And, uh, and since there's a lots of white males in the employment population, John, I'm sure you're updating your resume. I just want to make sure that you keep that fresh. I, I'm not going to pretend to be persecuted as a, a white Anglo-Saxon male in our society. So I appreciate your continued employment. Okay. Just want to make sure, keep you on your toes Darcie. Absolutely. Thanks again, guys, for joining us and thank you everybody for tuning into today's salt. Talk on ESG investing. Just a reminder. If you missed any part of this episode or any of our previous episodes, you can access our entire archive of salt talks on our website and our YouTube channel. It's salt.org backslash talks, and our YouTube channel is called salt tube. We're also on social media. Please follow us on Twitter is where we're most active at salt conference, but we're also on Instagram, LinkedIn, and Facebook as well. Please tell your friends about salt talks. We love growing our community and providing people access to these educational resources. Uh, everything's for free again on our website and our YouTube channel. And on behalf of Anthony and the entire salt team. This is John Darcie signing off from salt talks for today. We hope to see you back here. So.

Ida Beerhalter: Helping Women Find Their Voice in Business | SALT Talks #132

“When it comes to financials in the family offices, I see a lot of the daughters taking charge and a lot of the fathers actually proud letting them take charge.”

Ida Beerhalter is co-head of IOME, a private investment partnership of women principals from the Gulf with its head office in Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Additionally, Beerhalter currently serves as Vice Chairman of the Board of Trustees of Astia, USA.

It is important for a member of an educational family office to first understand who they are. This involves recognizing both strengths and weakness in order to then set up an effective structure and team. More women in family businesses are getting involved and taking control of their financial destiny which offers a new form of empowerment. It is important for women to learn about themselves in the work place and ultimately use their skills to thrive. This often involves helping women find their voice, literally. “We had training for [women’s] voices, for them to speak up. As an example, we did it by screaming through a park.. I have them read something, different sentences, and I need to hear it even 50 meters away.”

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Ida Beerhalter.jpeg

Ida Beerhalter

Co-Head

IOME Private Investment Office

MODERATOR

anthony_scaramucci.jpeg

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

Rachel Pether: (00:08)
Hi everyone, and welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is Rachel Pether, and I'm a senior advisor at Skybridge Capital based in Abu Dhabi, as well as being the emcee for SALT, a thought leadership forum and networking platform that encompasses business, technology, and politics.

Rachel Pether: (00:26)
Now, SALT Talks, as many of you know, is a series of digital interviews with some of the world's foremost investors, creators and thinkers, and just as we do at our global SALT conference series, we aim to empower really big, important ideas and provide our audience the window into the mind of subject matter experts.

Rachel Pether: (00:45)
Today we'll be focusing on wealth and why it can be both suffocating and liberating. I'm very excited to be joined by someone I consider a dear friend, Ida Beerhalter, the co-head of IOME Private Investment office. An investment partnership of women principals in Saudi Arabia.

Rachel Pether: (01:03)
Now, Ida has a number of strategic advisory and board positions, a not for profit organization focused on propelling women's participation as entrepreneurs and leaders. Ida also acts as senior advisor to Women Empowerment Global Forum, and the Female Board Pool, a European organization that focuses on a [inaudible 00:01:23] woman to board of director positions.

Rachel Pether: (01:26)
Now as always, if you have any questions for Ida during today's talk, just enter them in the Q and A section of your screen. Ida, thank you so much for joining us today.

Ida Beerhalter: (01:36)
Thank you for having me.

Rachel Pether: (01:40)
Now, firstly, maybe you could start. We were having a conversation just before. I've known you for some time and I've never actually known what IOME stands for. So maybe before we begin, you could actually outline what IOME, I-O-M-E, stands for.

Ida Beerhalter: (01:58)
So there are three meanings. When we named the child, we had different ideas and at the end everybody was happy, actually IOME is a word play. Like saying I Own Me. Then the one like me who wanted a very rational name is Investment Office Middle East. Then also what we are doing is the I is for Invest, the O is for Observe, the M is for Mentor, and the E is for Educate. So we were quite happy with the outcome, so that everybody got the meaning they wanted.

Rachel Pether: (02:30)
I love that. I also love the fact that you take your nice German structure to the name. To maybe we start there, your German by origin. Tell me what took you to Saudi Arabia a decade ago.

Ida Beerhalter: (02:47)
So what made me brought there. I was involved with this woman leadership, like Astia, and I was a trustee there. Then, I did a talk in London about woman leadership and at the time I worked for a Swiss family office. The talk brought me to the attention of some people who actually wanted to control their wealth themself. We ended up that I went to Saudi, we had a conversation. We actually had no idea except that there was the desire to be in control of wealth and their financial destiny and what to do. In the end, we founded an educational family office. For example, my husband asked me when I came back from Saudi after my first strip what an educational family office is, I actually had to reply, "I'm not sure yet, we will figure it out in the way."

Ida Beerhalter: (03:41)
It was also for me a journey because it combined what I did. A family office, but the empowerment part, especially the empowerment part of women. Over the years, we then found out that taking charge of your financial destiny means a lot. It also means that you have to take on responsibility, you have to take charge of not just financial but social destiny and your educational destiny, and that you have to... it's not just being rich. Being rich is hard work if you want to do it the right way.

Rachel Pether: (04:21)
So, this was 10 years ago that your husband said to you, "What is an educational family office?" If I was to say that to you now, what would your response be?

Ida Beerhalter: (04:30)
It's a holistic thing. First, you have to find out who you are, what you are, and what your ecosystem is. That's the most important thing. Especially when you are... are you to owner of the wealth? Are you just the beneficiary of the wealth? Are you the nominal owner of the wealth, that other people control your destiny because you have no clue what's going on with your investments? Do you want to know what's going on with your investments, or are you rather the ignorant type? For me, it's important that you are honest with yourself and found out who are, what your capabilities are, what your talents are, and then you have to structure everything around it what you want to be or what you can be. Sometimes you have to accept that it's not possible.

Ida Beerhalter: (05:13)
We have, for example, the situation that we had a woman in the network who was, let me say, intellectually not very gifted. So actually it was quite dangerous for her to assume that she could control her wealth in a way, but it was more likely that other people who are much more intelligent than her would take advantage of her. So we build up a system for her that she was surrounded by people she could trust and people who would not take advantage of her. Her talent is actually in the artistic field. So she could go and pursue her artistic talent, we have different talents. So for example, there are people who can't cook and people who are fantastic at cook. Then it comes to intellectual capabilities. We judge people more harsh and I really don't understand it, why that is the case.

Ida Beerhalter: (06:01)
But if you are wealthy, you are very vulnerable because wealth attracts per se a lot of the wrong people for the wrong reasons. This was my nicest journey because she was always embarrassed because she knew that she was not, let me say quite colloquial, the brightest bulb in the lamp, and she tried to hide it all the time. It took a lot of energy for her to do that. By using the time for hiding this, she lost the opportunity to look after her artistic talent. Now, she is in a situation where her wealth is controlled, she understands what's going on because there are people who are trustworthy and explain it to her, people who respect her for who she is, and know that she needs more time to understand financial things, and she can use her money to support artists and pursue her artist destiny. For me that was one of the most beautiful things that at the end, we found something which works perfectly for her without barking up the wrong tree.

Rachel Pether: (07:06)
Yeah, that's a really great story. Thank you for sharing that. You mentioned vulnerability, Ida, so maybe we can dive a bit more into some of the issues that come with wealth. It can be both liberating and suffocating at the same time. So maybe talk me through some more of those issues, and also how you're dealing within the Private Office.

Ida Beerhalter: (07:32)
So, you are as vulnerable as your ecosystem, then you're very wealthy. Not a lot of people choose really the ecosystem or think about the ecosystem. You're born in a family, that's your first ecosystem. Then your other ecosystem develops out of that. A lot of people don't really sit back and ask themself, so what would I choose for myself if I could choose? You know, sometimes your parents give you advice for your professional destiny and they're maybe not the best people to ask because they live in their own ecosystem, they have their own kind of piece of knowledge. This is the same for financial destinies. So your vulnerable because people creep up to you with intentions because they want to sell you something or they want to participate in your wealth. The only question that you have to ask, that's fine if people want to participate, but is it justified that they participate. So is it somebody who works for you in a capacity which is beneficial for you? Or is it just somebody who takes advantage of you, drags you into the wrong things? Does not really let you grow but rather keeps you back.

Ida Beerhalter: (08:51)
There are family offices who by design keep the moment of wealth owners stupid and distant from their wealth. Trust funds is a special example. You make a trust fund to keep the money from your children or the control from your children, and you trust that the people administer the trust fund are the better people. That might be the case but it also might not be the case. You know, a lot of the trust fund kids where a lot of people are paid as trustees, and they are not paid meager money, to take care of the money and they do it sometimes better, sometimes worse.

Ida Beerhalter: (09:31)
If you want to read about Hershey chocolate. There is a book about the Hershey family and about how the foundation and everything went wrong because it obviously went in the hands of the wrong people. In the end, the intention of the people who created the wealth and what happened to that is one of the most irritating examples I know of. There are many more. [crosstalk 00:09:58]

Ida Beerhalter: (10:00)
Excuse me, when the [inaudible 00:10:02] is that you are afraid of that it becomes public knowledge. Especially in the Middle East I found a lot of people who said, "Oh you know, I was taken advantage of. Sometimes people stole my money," and I say, "Why don't you go after them?" They don't because they don't want to lose face. The crooks build on your fear of losing your face and they'd rather lose their money. This frustrates me sometimes a lot.

Rachel Pether: (10:34)
What's that saying, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me, I think that comes into play a bit here as well. I want to go a bit deeper into the ecosystem piece, especially because I know you focus a lot of the female principals. So tell me a bit about how the gender biases play out in this relationship in terms of trusting someone of being taken advantage of. What are some of the biases you see there?

Ida Beerhalter: (11:06)
I think first one of the positive biases is that women have a very good gut feeling, much more than men. If they learn to trust it. Sometimes they don't trust the gut feeling because they are limited by their culture. For example, you have to respect an elder man. Or you respect an elder woman. It's the same. There are some biases or some things which keep you from thinking clearly. It's like a fog in your brain.

Ida Beerhalter: (11:38)
A lot of cultures, men with a lot of children are respected people of a society, and I always ask myself why. Why is the ability to see a lot of children say something about a person, the character of a person? There are other things and if you start thinking about that... this is what we do a lot, to think about what triggers the emotion positively, negatively. So why do people trigger your fear to lose a good business opportunity, to make you sign a piece of paper and sign off your investments. So there are some simple things where you can learn to start saying no also to yourself. You don't sign what you don't understand and you're not afraid to tell people, "I don't understand because it's not my problem that I don't understand. If you want to sell me something, it's your problem to make me understand. It's not my problem. If you can't, I don't buy." So being a little bit more harsher.

Ida Beerhalter: (12:40)
Then, especially in the Middle East culture, you tell a good woman is kind of shy, she rather doesn't look people in the eye, there are a lot of things where you virtually train habits, so socially habits, which when it comes to your wealth are really harming yourself. You have to split your personality. It's not difficult because I have also split personality. I am different when I'm with my children, as a mother, than I am with my parents or when I fight with my husband. So you just need to consciously split your personality with more that you say, in a social context, as a wealthy woman, I behave that way. But then it comes to my money and I talk with a banker, I actually look him in the eye and I'm not afraid to even use the F word at one point if I deem it fit.

Ida Beerhalter: (13:39)
So you have to add a layer to your personality where you can act in this environment, in this ecosystem, in a reasonable way that you can make your point. So it doesn't mean that you do the same in your social system, except you want to change your social acceptance. If you want to be heard by your father that you might want to be a candidate to take over the company, or to manage the wealth of the family, then he must see you and he might be very uncomfortable because if he only is used to women in a different context, then you have to give him time to get used to you. To this new you. You cannot go in like with a machine gun and tell people now I'm this person, I want this. Because you live in a ecosystem, you live in a family, you have to give people time to adjust and sometimes you have to leave a certain ecosystem because you cannot grow. But this is an even harder decision, especially when it comes to family.

Ida Beerhalter: (14:45)
We had this situation as well, where the lady made a conscious decision to stay in the family because she said, "My money, or the control of my money, is not worth leaving my family behind and this would be the only option. I have to tell my father I'm leaving you, and my brothers, because they don't trust me to handle the money." She made a conscious decision, and a conscious decision is much more better to live with, to accept, than a decision which is forced on you and you always regret the circumstances and you feel like a victim. If you take on to make a conscious decision you are no longer a victim.

Ida Beerhalter: (15:26)
I think women need to think consciously in what situation they have to be who, and add just this other layer. This is what we did with the financial thing. We say, "You know what, if it's your money, you look people in the eye, you have a very harsh handshake because it's good to set the scene, and you make your point." You even speak loud, you speak in a voice you would never think about speaking to your parents. So we had training for the voices, for them to speak up.

Ida Beerhalter: (16:02)
As an example, we did it my screaming through a park. Where I stand in front of them and then we made more and more distance, and they had to say a sentence to me and I need to understand the sentence. I have them something to read, different sentences, and I need to hear it even 50 meters away and they really had to shout at me for me to understand what they are doing. It was one of our most embarrassing exercises in the middle of London, where I think a lot of people are thinking about calling the guys with the white suits with the long arms. But it was part of the game. We enjoyed it.

Rachel Pether: (16:41)
That's an excellent story. I'm happy you're doing that in a London park rather than in Saudi or in Abu Dhabi. That might have saved you [inaudible 00:16:50].

Rachel Pether: (16:50)
What I think is most interesting, you talk about tourism [inaudible 00:16:55] and I think it's quite easy for people like yourself and myself having grown up in the western background, we appreciate it. We can make [inaudible 00:17:07] choices, we've always had that freedom. It's quite a cultural shift when you've never really had choice. An audience question has actually come in: given you've been in Saudi for 10 years, have you noticed a shift in recent years [inaudible 00:17:26] MBS coming into power and relaxing some of the other [inaudible 00:17:30] Saudi, like giving women the power to drive, etc. have you seen that accelerating cultural shift?

Ida Beerhalter: (17:37)
Actually, I would say, and I'm not sure if this is offensive, but I would actually say that MBS is a female role model because he is a role model for some men to change the system in the way where they know they have power and they say, "I use my power for the good of others." So he opened the country a lot. I really think he forced some men out of their comfort zone and tell them, "You know what, your comfort zone was this totally covered up, not very empowered women, and now we accept that our female population is part of our essence. So we don't ignore the essence any longer because we want the talent, we want the education we invest in them. So why would you educate the women and then don't let them use the education you give them?" I really see this, and an outer, let me say, signal, the clothing restriction had loosened up a lot. I think that it's also important that it's not just in the mind of the people but also visible to the people. The men who are more afraid to leave the comfort zone, because they believe that when woman is taking charge that there's a danger, they get more comfortable. Of course there are aggressions, because the people who fear the change, they fear and they're only option is to become aggressive. You still have them also.

Ida Beerhalter: (19:32)
So the country has changed a lot and I really hope that this road to direction, which whatever the pace the country is able to go, is going because as I said, for me you can't ignore half of your essence, your human essence, by making the other half comfortable and actually telling them you harm your essence to be more comfortable. It's like a bit you have a fantastic piece of land or garden, whatever, and you don't plow it, you just shut it off, let it lying bare and not develop it.

Ida Beerhalter: (20:12)
I really like the energy in the country. What you feel the [inaudible 00:20:21] of people want to do something and I'm not sure if it's just my feeling, but I see a lot of entrepreneurs. I hear from a lot of people that they want to create businesses. A lot of ideas and sometimes crazy ideas, but the crazy ideas are the really creative ones. You see the arts coming up, you see the sports coming up. So there's a lot of development, mental development, the mental societal development which is amazing. The pace they are going is breathtaking.

Ida Beerhalter: (20:55)
I think a lot of the men over there who support the women should not be offended by me saying they are female role models. The same like some women out there, I know some women there who are actually male role models, who let men be in awe of them. If you, for example, see Reema bint Bandar, who is the U.S. Ambassador, or the ambassador of Saudi to the U.S., she is for me a male role model because she shows that what women can do and makes men more not comfortable, they're much more comfortable. Sometimes she might even force the issue by being who she is. So people can't ignore her, they can't put her back in the box.

Ida Beerhalter: (21:40)
So for me it's an amazing development. I just don't see it only in Saudi Arabia, so it's not just the kingdom, I see it in a lot of other countries in the Middle East, but this is what I always try to point out. It's not that we are investing time so far ahead. My mother, when she had a working contract, wanted to open a bank account, my father had to sign. That was '75. 1975. It's not so long ago. I was 10 years old. Where my mom had my father to sign her opening of a bank account. So, we try to ignore that, but just look a little bit in history. See the women rights for women in Switzerland. It's not that long ago. So I think they should not be too arrogant when we talk about Saudi now making the choice to empower their other 50 half of the population. It doesn't look good on us if we are too arrogant because they can read as well. If they look in our history, they might say to us, "You know what, it's not too long ago since you had the same situation."

Rachel Pether: (22:59)
Right. Absolutely. Although, at the risk of sounding arrogant, I would like to add that New Zealand was the first country in the world to give women the vote. We do have [inaudible 00:23:08] so just like to drop that in.

Rachel Pether: (23:12)
We had a number of audience questions come in and they're actually related to my questions. I'll ask them now. Thanks as always for your question Ken. He said, "Such an impressive effort. What other kind of advocacy in Saudi Arabia in general is either seeing for better educating women on financial management or addressing institutional norms in financial management." So maybe having a little bit more on the financial and investment [inaudible 00:23:42].

Ida Beerhalter: (23:45)
As I'm focused on the family offices, so I don't really can say a lot of the financial institutions. I see a lot of women in all the KPMG, EY, I see a lot of lawyers. So I see coming them virtually... It's like they are coming out of the hiding. So you see them everywhere. You see them in the banks. So when it comes to financial in the family offices, I see a lot of the daughters taking really charge and a lot of the fathers actually proud, letting them take charge.

Ida Beerhalter: (24:20)
I actually a situation when I was in Jeddah in March, I met a family which has... they have daughters and sons, and I was totally amazed that actually the principal, the wealth owner, said, "You know what, my middle daughter will be the one because she's the most gifted." He really made the choice based on different things, he didn't choose the eldest son, he didn't choose the eldest daughter. He really looked at his children and not as a father, but as somebody who has a company and choosed the middle daughter to be the best candidate. Also the one who wants to do this, because it's the important thing. What he said, "I need somebody who wants to do this, not who can do this." So you see, also the mindset's changed a lot.

Rachel Pether: (25:09)
So when you go and sit with the female principals, I know you mentioned that overall let's call it a competency test, for lack of a better description, do you also train them in financial literacy, for example, so they can make better decisions for themselves? If that is, A, something they want to do, and B, something they [inaudible 00:25:33] to do.

Ida Beerhalter: (25:34)
So the principle I follow is that I think if you are an investor you need an ecosystem, you need trusted people around you. So what I do, I teach them about each and every geography, each and every asset class and every sector. But in a very high level because I want to see what I catch higher. If you want to do something right you have to do an interest in that. For example, if you have someone who's interested in tech, then I pursue that. Then I introduce to this principal people in tech who are either fantastic tech investors, fantastic tech entrepreneurs, and then let her build up her own ecosystem. She needs to have an ecosystem, she can't obviously go into mine, but she needs to surround herself with people which are her people, not my people.

Ida Beerhalter: (26:26)
Then when she has this network, I always tell them, "If you want to start investing, don't invest money, invest time." Invest time in relationship, building up relationship, because you need to have a little black book of people to ask. To call and say, "You know what, I want to invest in this, could you have a look?" Or, "I want to invest in this, would you be a co-investor?" Or people who call you said say, "You know what, I have a fantastic investment, come in as a co-investor and I accept you as a co-investor with 100,000 or 50,000 bucks." This is the other rule I tell them.

Ida Beerhalter: (26:58)
When they start investing, when they start investing on their own, the rule is no more than $100,000 U.S. dollars. Which sounds ridiculous in comparison to the wealth they have, but this is learning more than putting money in. Learning how to read the contracts, learning how to have the discussions, getting the board seat, having influence, reading reports, getting deeper in the sector or geography or asset class you like. What I also do I connect them with families who are in this special asset class.

Ida Beerhalter: (27:33)
For example, I had an example when it comes to [forests 00:27:35]. We have in Germany an aristocratic family who do [foresting 00:27:40] 850 years. If you do [foresting 00:27:43] 850 years, there's not much for people can teach you. If one of them would be interested in [forests 00:27:49], I would step aside, would make the introduction to this family, and then she could go there, she could live with them, she could get to know them. Actually, this was the first mentor set up IOME, this gentleman, his name is Prince Michael zu Salm-Salm, he told me, "If anybody wants to know something about [forests 00:28:10], I invite them to stay at my house, which is actually a castle, and I teach them everything." He said, "if they're really good and talented, I might even pay them a salary."

Ida Beerhalter: (28:22)
So this was an interesting conversation we had. This is when we connect the ecosystem. I think the most important thing if you want to invest, you have to have an ecosystem of people who are good investors, decent investors, and doesn't include people who are rich and talk about their Ferraris, Maserati, their yachts, their jewelry, whatever. This is not the mindset you need.

Rachel Pether: (28:50)
Definitely. That investment and education and experience is something you're always going to get a good return on that, so definitely worth putting in the time and effort.

Rachel Pether: (29:00)
We had a question coming in from [inaudible 00:29:03], this is a very challenging one actually. He's asked, "How can men improve their connection [inaudible 00:29:09]?"

Ida Beerhalter: (29:10)
I didn't get the question because it was cut off. What is the question? How can men-

Rachel Pether: (29:16)
He has asked, "How can men improve their connection with their gut instinct?"

Ida Beerhalter: (29:23)
Their connection with their-

Rachel Pether: (29:24)
With their instinct.

Ida Beerhalter: (29:26)
With their instinct.

Rachel Pether: (29:26)
Their gut feeling. Their instinct.

Ida Beerhalter: (29:30)
I think it's really going back to yourself. First you have to understand and learn about yourself. I mean, not just the bright side but also the dark side. Then if you see it within yourself, then you see it also in others. It's a little bit like, it might be a very real example, but if you are, for example, a lot of women experience it. The second somebody tells you are pregnant, you are suddenly surrounded by pregnant women you haven't seen before. It's the same when I got glasses, the first time I got glasses I realized how many shops selling glasses are around me, which I never ... So you [inaudible 00:30:10] gets bigger.

Ida Beerhalter: (30:10)
The thing is, when you want to learn about you it's really pushing your boundaries. You have to get out of your comfort zone. This is actually what we do in the office every year because I let the ladies make a list in the first time I sit with them, I let them make a list of things they don't like and things they are afraid of. One, for example, at the top of list she didn't like to swim. Guess what I made her do? She got 40 swimming lessons. The one who was shy, she said she doesn't speak in front of audiences, she got singing lessons. I made her, in just for 40 hours, you don't do it for life. Because something changes. If you have a very timid voice and then somebody "forces" you to have 40 singing lessons. You learn to breathe, you have a different stature, you know to modulate your voice, you come out of it with a new skill set which you never would have chosen because you feel uncomfortable. So actually they call it my list of threats because I pick every year something from this list where they do the stuff.

Ida Beerhalter: (31:19)
If you have this 40 hours, it's the same, you don't like hiking, you do this 40 hours. After that you can decide if you don't like it. But if you have never done it, why do you know you don't like it. So you get your instinct for it, you develop as a person and you face your fears. But that, you see other people's fears. You learn to read body language, which is important, because the unspoken language is the thing where people really communicate. It's a very old thing that I think 70% of the communication is non-verbal. I think 15 is paraverbal, like the loudness of the voice. The rest is the verbal one.

Ida Beerhalter: (32:04)
So a lot of us have not learned to have the paraverbal and the non-verbal language any longer, and you have to go back to that. With your own language, because you have to also show what you signal to people, and the good thing is to start with your instincts. If somebody doesn't like you... you meet somebody, somebody doesn't like you. Think about why. Why this person doesn't like you. Maybe you threatened the person, they feel uncomfortable, maybe you look weird, or you are having a [crisis 00:32:41] posture. Try to think about it. Sometimes you meet people you don't like. The same question. Why? Why do you see somebody and say, "Oh god. What a jerk." Why do we have this? Without knowing somebody. What is going on? Then you get much more in touch with yourself and your surroundings and then the rest is just... it just takes over from there.

Rachel Pether: (33:02)
Yeah. I like the fact that you really encourage the female principals that you work with to just get out there and do something. They may realize it's not going to be perfect, but that's okay and they can still enjoy, it can still be great. The main thing is just trying.

Rachel Pether: (33:25)
One other interesting thing Ida, when you move out to Saudi, how did you find it from a cultural perspective in terms of being integrated into this environment which is quite closed to outsiders. Was it easy for them to trust you? Tell me a bit about that process.

Ida Beerhalter: (33:48)
At the beginning, because we were all thrown at the deep end, there as a lot of trust involved. I think it was also that we had a natural connection because we gave up something. I gave up my job in the Swiss family office, which a lot of people still say to me, "Why would you ever do this?" They gave me their trust because they had to tell me over time... Trust was developing. There's also the example when trust builds who have to accept that people don't tell you everything at the beginning. So I had the situation where I knew that the lady was married. So that was my first information. After, I think, three, four months the information extended that she was not the only wife. Then at one point she was the youngest wife. So I got more and more information. So at the beginning it was just a blissful, I'm-happily-married-with-my-husband story. Then over time, trust is a relationship and it's like you have a first date and then you get to know the person and obviously, not many people at the first date spill all the beans. You try a very good impression at the first date. It's a little bit like that.

Ida Beerhalter: (35:16)
So it developed over time and it was also at a certain pace. I think you have to give people space to come to you and also tell you things they want to tell you. I always told them, me as a family office, I need to know your dirty laundry because the dirty laundry is where the risk is. So for example, if you are the third wife of somebody, that's a totally different situation than if you are in the relationship with just one wife and one husband. It's a totally different setting. Then I adjust my way to that.

Ida Beerhalter: (35:54)
Culturally, we learn from each other. I'm typical German, I want time. Obviously, I was the only one on time at the beginning. Now it changed in a very interesting way that I'm mostly the one who was late, which is ridiculous, but it becomes worse and worse. Another thing when it comes to cultural thing is that the Saudi politeness, when they cancel a meeting they had always this sick aunt or sick child or sick somebody, that made me sick because I know they were really lying to me by being polite. So I told them at one point that, "In Germany we are superstitious, if you tell somebody you're sick, this person will be sick." Actually, since that time, no more sickness when we cancel meetings.

Ida Beerhalter: (36:49)
So we learned from each other. So they straight said to me now, "I don't have the time, I'm too tired." Tell me what really is the case. This is also a sign of trust that they really tell me, "You know what, I canceled this meeting because I'm tired. I don't have the mood for that today, to go over the finances." This is fine, I like it more than somebody telling me, "My aunt is sick." We add a lot of honesty with the trust. Actually our honesty is quite brutal meanwhile. Really tell us the truth, which is interesting and sometimes uncomfortable. So you can say our comfort zone is expanded. We feel much more comfortable in being brutally honest with each other, and this took time. A lot of time.

Rachel Pether: (37:40)
Yeah. There's definitely something to be said for being brutally honest with people and knowing that their trust is there and you have that environment where you can say what do you believe. I'm very said, Ida, that the one cultural trait you picked up was being late. That is extremely un-German, but never mind.

Rachel Pether: (38:02)
I just wanted to read out a comment and we have time for one more question. We do have someone from the audience saying that she loves your inspiration [inaudible 00:38:12] to believe in yourselves and what's get women to willing to pull out their stories and flex what stands in their way of [inaudible 00:38:20] life they really want. So thank you Brenda for your comment there.

Rachel Pether: (38:24)
Closing question Ida, I know you have been out, you haven't had the opportunity to go in Saudi for a while now. When you do eventually get back there, what are you most looking forward to?

Ida Beerhalter: (38:38)
I didn't get that, you cut out again. When I get there, what?

Rachel Pether: (38:45)
You haven't had the opportunity to go back to Saudi for a while now. When you do eventually get back there from this pandemic, what are you most looking forward to?

Ida Beerhalter: (38:56)
Actually just sit down and have dinner. I want a [capsa 00:39:01], I want grapefruit juice. There are a lot of things. I just want to sit down and see the people. Seriously. We can do a lot of things remote, but I miss the personal connection. I miss really the food. I'm the biggest date smuggler. Even, I'm still over the years not sure if I'm supposed to bring dates. But I'm too German, so if I ask and they tell me I'm not supposed to, obviously I won't do it. So I never ask. So I actually miss my dates because the stuff you get over here is not what you get in Saudi. Definitely not. So there are some things I'm missing a lot.

Rachel Pether: (39:44)
It's been a year, I'll make sure you get an early Christmas present.

Rachel Pether: (39:48)
But anyway, that's all we have time for, but I just wanted to thank you so much Ida, I know [inaudible 00:39:53] conversation. Thanks so much for giving up your time to join us, it's been a real pleasure.

Ida Beerhalter: (40:02)
Thank you so much. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to talk with you. Thank you.

Szymon Idzikowski: ESG & Climate Related Investments | SALT Talks #123

“If I think that overall demand for equities will come down, maybe within that, the sweet spot in the context of millennials would be ESG and climate related investments.”

Szymon Idzikowski joined Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) in January 2015 to lead the 3rd party fund selection and co-manage discretionary client investment portfolios. He is a lead fund manager of ADCB Target Date Funds and ADCB Multi- Asset Funds.

There are three major factors driving the market and forecasts of future returns: demographics, globalization and global growth. We see aging demographics across the world which will serve as a drag on the economy. Globalization peaked around 2010 and its decline will ultimately moderate the pace of global growth. This portends lower investment yields in the coming decade. “If I look on the IMF forecast, growth is only going to continue to moderate [due to globalization and demographics] and debt that companies and governments have built.”

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Szymon Idzikowski.jpeg

Szymon Idzikowski

Fund Manager

Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB)

MODERATOR

anthony_scaramucci.jpeg

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

Rachel Pether: (00:08)
Hey everyone and welcome back to SALT Talks. My name's Rachel Pether and I'm a senior advisor to SkyBridge Capital based in Abu Dhabi as well as being the MC for SALT, a thought leadership forum and networking platform that encompasses business, technology and politics. SALT Talks, as many of you regular viewers know, is a series of digital interviews where we speak to some of the world's foremost investors, creators, and thinkers. And what we're really trying to do here is provide our audience a window into the minds of subject matter experts.

Rachel Pether: (00:42)
Today, we'll be discussing why investors should be bracing for lower returns. And I'm very excited to be speaking to my friend Szymon Idzikowski, fund manager at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank. Szymon leads the third party fund selection for ADCB and co-manages discretionary client investment portfolios. He started his career with Morningstar in London, where he was involved in the rollout of Morningstar's qualitative fund research and ratings across Europe and Asia. Szymon holds a master's degree, a bachelor's degree and is a CFA charter holder. As always, if you have any questions at all during today's talk, just enter them in the Q&A section of your Zoom screen. Szymon, welcome to SALT Talks.

Szymon Idzikowski: (01:28)
Thanks for having me.

Rachel Pether: (01:30)
Now, before we begin, I've known you for about five years now, and I'm always worried that I get your name pronounced incorrectly. So for the benefit of the audience, can you just pronounce your name in the correct way?

Szymon Idzikowski: (01:43)
Sure. I actually think you've done a great job pronouncing it, but it's Szymon Idzikowski.

Rachel Pether: (01:52)
Perfect. And I also severely paraphrased your biography there. So maybe you can start just by telling me a bit more about your background and how you ended up where you are now in ADCB.

Szymon Idzikowski: (02:03)
Yeah, I think you actually summarized it very well. Well, I've been in the industry for nearly 13 years now. I've started my career in London with a company called Morningstar and that was in the beginning of 2008, so very interesting times to join financial services. But that also means that pretty much I've seen the full market cycle by now. I've joined ADCB in 2015, to lead the multi-manager capabilities for the bank and I'm responsible for idea origination both on the traditional and alternative side, portfolio management as well as client advisory.

Rachel Pether: (02:49)
Excellent. So, I'm sure we'll get into some of those ideas a little bit later during the course of today's talk as well, but the two of us have discussed before how post financial crisis returns have exceeded longterm average returns, but that investors should be bracing for lower returns going forward. So maybe you could talk me through some of the structural changes behind that reasoning.

Szymon Idzikowski: (03:16)
Sure. Look, there're three areas I think, and then there's probably a number of those areas, but the three areas I would like to talk about are demographics, globalization and global growth. But maybe before I dive into that, I would like to just spend a minute on actually, what you just said that the recent returns have exceeded the long-term averages and maybe put a few numbers behind that. I think it would be a nice place to start and you've been absolutely right. If we look on equities, US large company names S&P 500 benchmark pretty much over the last 10 years, it has returned something like 13, 14% annualized versus its long-term average closer to 8%. So if you think that at some point, those returns will mean revert to the long term average, that would simply imply quite lower returns going forward.

Szymon Idzikowski: (04:26)
And as we just discussed a few minutes before this webinar, I was earlier today looking on capital market assumptions on some of the bigger asset managers, BlackRock, JPMorgan, and GMO. And of course, all of them would go beyond just the simple mean reversion but the conclusion has been pretty much the same. So BlackRock, for example, expects that over the next 10 years, S&P 500 will return something like 5% annualized, JP Morgan thinks it's going to be 4% and GMO is the most bearish of all three and GMO doesn't think we're going to see as much as 1% from S&P 500. And again, that's after receiving 13, 14% annualized over the last 10 years, so that's one thing. Unfortunately, on the fixed income, it doesn't look any better. I guess, in the context of fixed income, you probably want to take a little bit longer horizon because I think what we've seen is the yields coming down from early 1980s, and that yield compression has provided a great tailwind for fixed income investors.

Szymon Idzikowski: (05:48)
But the reality is where we are now most of the sovereign bond funds pay close to zero. In some cases, these are negative returns and we can actually see negative returns even in credit, both investment grade and high yield. You look on an index such as Barclays global agg and 20% of that index actually is in negative yield territory. And again, if I look on those free providers, all of them are in the agreement that over the next 10 years, in the real terms, you will unlikely to make any money from government bonds. In a nominal term there has been mixed conclusion but that's not a very rosy picture as well, so that is where we are. But then if I go back to the structural drivers you've asked about, again, they don't really change the picture or they don't make the picture anymore rosy because if I start with demographics, I think it's been a quite topical area.

Szymon Idzikowski: (07:00)
There has been a lot of headline about the Japanification and aging populations and none of this is good for the market. Aging population means that the portion of population that is working versus the non-working population is shrinking. So their involvement in income generation and productivity and workforce is decreasing the [inaudible 00:07:22]. That's not good for our economy and that's not good for cashflow generation of the companies. So ultimately that's not going to be good for our returns if we invest in those companies, so that's one thing.

Szymon Idzikowski: (07:39)
The second thing is globalization. And again, I think globalization is a trend we've seen over the last few centuries. And what it has done is it's made the world much more interconnected. It has resulted in probably creating more prosperity around the world. It has introduced new products, share know how, helped to lower the costs, helped with the migrations, but a lot of those trends have been reversing. So if we look on the last few years, it seems like the globalization has peaked probably around 2010. So these tailwinds again, we've been getting in the past from globalizations are not necessarily going to help us going forward.

Szymon Idzikowski: (08:36)
And then the third driver is global growth. And again, unfortunately I don't have a good news there either. We've been already over the last few years in a slow growth environment and if I look on the IMF forecast, looks like this growth is only going to continue to moderate. And some of the drivers behind that would be actually globalization would be those demographics I just spoke about but it will be just as well things such as pile of debt that companies and governments have built to the high leverage is not going to really help going forward.

Rachel Pether: (09:21)
So firstly, thanks for such a great overview and breakdown of those three drivers. I want to pick up on the first point that you made about demographics and maybe just look at how this is impacting demand for equities as well. Just touch on that, given that it's also projected to only be one to 5% return going forward in the S&P.

Szymon Idzikowski: (09:48)
Yeah. And that's a good point because I guess when I was talking about demographics, I was referring only to this demographic support ratio for the economies, but you are absolutely right. There is probably another angle. You can look at demographics, which is propensity for risk, appetite for risk-taking. And a lot of studies suggest that it is the mid-age working population that has the highest propensity for risk-taking. So these would be those natural buyers of equities. But again, if we think that the population is aging, this appetite for equities will be decreasing, which will not be good for the prices of equities.

Szymon Idzikowski: (10:47)
But maybe second point I would make in that context is the context of millennials. Because again, some of the studies suggest that, or some of the expectations suggest that millennials will not necessarily be as eager to buy equities as baby boomers when they were at their peak potential for buying equities, so that's again also going to drive demand.

Rachel Pether: (11:19)
And I appreciate that you're more focused on the investment side versus the client focused side, but where are you seeing millennials wanting to invest if it's not in equities and I'm presuming it's not fixed income?

Szymon Idzikowski: (11:35)
Yeah, it's interesting. Well, there's probably two points I would make around that because the first point is probably what I just said that maybe the demand will come down compared to historical standards. But I guess the second point that is probably quite important in this context is what they will be buying. And I think what we've seen is that they try to align their value systems with the investment. So of course, they've attention has been much higher in all those sort of ESG related teams. So again, if I look on some of the statistics that I've seen, they would suggest that probably millennials are twice as likely to buy ESG compared to baby boomers. So if I think that overall demand for equities will come down, maybe within that, the sweet spot in the context of millennials would be ESG and climate related investments.

Rachel Pether: (12:45)
Yeah. And I guess one other thing that's kind of come up in the millennial age as it were is this, the sharing economy. And I want to link that into the point you made about global growth. Do you think that we still measure growth correctly in the context of this sharing economy?

Szymon Idzikowski: (13:04)
It's a good question. Let me maybe start explaining the concept of sharing economy, just in case some of our viewers are not familiar with that concept. And I think the easiest way to explain this is by using some of the examples which probably most of us know, and this would be the type of Ubers, Lyfts or Airbnbs. So basically what sharing economy is, is the part of economy that involves exchange of goods and services on a peer to peer basis but very often utilizing some unused goods or assets. So if you think about Uber or Lyft and basically personal cars, the reality is that we don't use our cars to the full extent.

Szymon Idzikowski: (14:02)
I mean, most of us would wake up, you drive to the office for half an hour, then you park the car. You are at the office for the next eight, nine, 10 hours, your car stay there unused, drive back, go sleep. And basically at the end of the day, you use your car for maybe an hour, right? Just imagine on top of your full-time job you become an Uber driver. You don't really need any new assets to become an Uber driver, but you are utilizing an already existed asset. It will be the same case for Airbnb. In a traditional economy, if you wanted to increase the supply of something, maybe housing or apartments, you would need to build them. But within this concept of sharing economy, instead of building a new hotel or a new apartment, you basically utilizing the existing structures and maybe renting unused rooms.

Szymon Idzikowski: (15:03)
So all those examples, in all those examples there is for sure value created by sharing economy. But that value is not necessarily captured by the GDP, because you're not buying a new car to provide a service. You're not constructing a new hotel or a new apartment, but there is some value created. It is a little bit open question. I think we are all trying to find maybe new template, maybe partially that does explain to some extent this slowing growth environment that we've just discussed.

Rachel Pether: (15:37)
That's a really good point. I also do have to add, if your day is just driving half an hour to the office, working, driving home, and sleeping, then we need to do something about priority in your life. Okay, so you've mentioned demographics, globalization, and global growth. So maybe we can now turn that over and look at maybe what is the antidote to some of them. And I know you're a big fan of Howard Marks as well. And he was making the comment that asset prices are higher than they were a year ago. Prospective returns are lower than they were a year ago. And so people are having to take more risk to get return, but it's not the really the type of an environment where you want to be taking more risk. So I guess putting all of that together, where can investors look for returns as global growth is slowing?

Szymon Idzikowski: (16:31)
Yeah, look, so if you think we are in the slow growth environment, then you basically need to look for high growth opportunities. And the way we look at this is through the lenses of new economy versus the old economy. And the new economy would be your type of sectors or industries or companies with some sort of cutting edge technologies that disrupt those traditional and old economics. So these will be maybe your FinTech versus traditional financials organizations, this may be electric cars versus the traditional cars, this could be some sort of online learning and online shopping, maybe alternative energy versus traditional energy. So we do think there is some sort of parallel shift, a paradigm shift taking place. And we do think that those new economics will be winners from this new situation.

Szymon Idzikowski: (17:37)
So that's the first thing. Well, the second comment I would make is probably around private markets. And if I think about the private markets, well, the companies right now have much more option to raise capital than they did in the past. So they are not as eager as they used to be to go for the IPO and when they do, they take much longer to get to that stage which means that much more value is created when they are still private. So if you want to utilize that value, you need to participate or buy them when they're still private.

Szymon Idzikowski: (18:21)
I appreciate you're giving up liquidity in that case, but I do think it's a very fair trade. And if I look in again in some of these capital market assumptions, BlackRock, for example, expects that over the next 10 years, you can make as much as 17% on annualized basis from private equity. And that compares to meet single digits coming from public equities so that the trade-off is I think, quite attractive and the same on the fixed income side, you will look on the direct lending where private things you can make as much as 8% annualized return versus your very low single digits from public fixed income.

Rachel Pether: (19:10)
I mean, but the private markets point you make is a great one, SpaceX just did a series in funding round, it used to be ABC stop at D but companies are staying private much longer for sure. We're both based in an emerging market. How are you seeing emerging markets within the things that you've just discussed?

Szymon Idzikowski: (19:37)
Yeah, so I think emerging markets have probably one advantage versus developed markets and that would be demographics. So when I was speaking about the aging population, most of that applies to developed market. So for sure, someone that has a long term investment horizon there are opportunities in emerging markets and they're worth considering.

Rachel Pether: (20:11)
And where are you seeing the best opportunities, when you look at emerging markets, how do you divide the world, the emerging market world?

Szymon Idzikowski: (20:19)
So we are the most excited about emerging Asia. And we think that on one hand, you do take advantage of, of course, those better demographics, but at the same time, if I go back to the comments I made about the new and old economy, a lot of the new economy sectors and companies you can find in Asia, so it ticks both of the boxes. On the other hand, probably, I would stay away from the old economy emerging markets, all those commodity producers, mainly on the back of the transition that China goes through, transitioning from more like a manufacturing base toward domestic and service oriented, which means that the demand for local commodities is coming down, which of course will not be good for the commodity-producing emerging countries.

Rachel Pether: (21:17)
Yeah. And I guess that goes back to your point about capacity as well. Maybe we don't need more things if we're using our current resources more effectively. We've had an audience question come in, which I think it's probably opportune to ask now. Someone has asked, what is ADCB doing in the ESG space, be that, in equities or fixed income?

Szymon Idzikowski: (21:42)
That's a good question. Unfortunately, I feel that ESG has not gained as much traction in the middle East as we've seen in Europe and in the US. So I think Europe is leading the way, US is probably second. In the middle East, I think that the only angle I would put in the context of ESG is probably Islamic investing, which you could argue is a form of ESG where you basically align your values with how you invest. And of course, most of the local banks will have products around that. We've got products on both equity side and the fixed income side that gives you exposure to Sharia products. And we've seen a lot of interest in those products, but if I look on the sort of broader ESG products, we've talked about it quite a lot. We write a number of thought leadership papers but we haven't seen probably as much traction as some of our colleagues outside of this region.

Rachel Pether: (22:50)
I'm quite impressed Szymon because we haven't actually really discussed the pandemic yet, which I'm very happy about. So I'm not going to dwell on it, but what we appear to be in now is more of this K shape recovery and dispersion amongst sectors that are forming well, how are you looking to take advantage of that dispersion from an investment side?

Szymon Idzikowski: (23:17)
Yes, you are right. I think we've seen a huge dispersion this year, basically all those growth related sectors leading the recovery and value related sectors lagging. But the reality is this is not only this year phenomena, we've seen this dispersion actually for quite a few years now. And I think by Q3 this year, probably the gap between the growth and value names has been the highest we've ever witnessed. And I think a lot of that goes back to what I said, that we've been in a slow growth environment for a number of years. So if I was a long-term investors and I focus on my strategic asset location given... We don't think the growth is going to pick up much really going forward, I would probably stick to those growth and new economy names.

Szymon Idzikowski: (24:21)
So that's the first comment I would make. But having said that, we probably have seen some rotation the last few weeks where those cyclical and volume names have been picking up. And I think interesting thing that COVID has created this year, it's almost rotated the beta of names and sectors and industries.

Szymon Idzikowski: (24:47)
So sectors that traditionally are associated with trading at a high beta, the type of like, let's say your IT sector actually had a very low beta this year because of all this online demand, which does explain why it has done so well. And on the other hand real estate, which is traditionally very defensive and lobbied, the sector actually has seen a huge spike of its beta because of the commercial real estate and problems related to that. So while I made the comment about your longterm and structural positioning, there's probably an opportunity for more tactical investors who would like to potentially play this beta normalization.

Szymon Idzikowski: (25:37)
Of course UK has just approved the vaccine, probably we're going to see more of that happening as we are seeing this process rolling out and economies reopening. Again, we're probably going to see some of those cyclical or some of those defensive names and sectors that have lagged playing a catch up game. So for the small tactical investors, probably, things such as airlines, auto, hotel, leisure, energy and a few other sectors and industries that have lagged could be potentially a nice tactical play.

Rachel Pether: (26:22)
Yeah, absolutely. From the hedge fund perspective side, we've seen that it's the distressed corporate credit guys that have really had a great last six months, at least by picking up on some of the opportunities that you just mentioned. We've had a couple of audience questions coming in, actually both of which are brilliant questions and I wish I'd thought of them myself. One of them is related to private markets. And from Ken, has the explosion of [SPACs 00:26:52] , which offer a faster approach to private investment liquidity affected the investment decisions i.e in high growth areas such as tech?

Szymon Idzikowski: (27:04)
Has that impacted decision-making?

Rachel Pether: (27:08)
Yes. So I guess, I mean, I know SPACs haven't yet really taken off in this region yet, but obviously they're all the rage of the day in the US at the moment, are you thinking that that's affecting investment decisions with regards to the high growth areas?

Szymon Idzikowski: (27:30)
I don't have a strong view on that but clearly, if we look on overall, I mean, private markets have seen huge traction over the last year, raising a lot of assets. I think the two probably biggest trends we've seen in the last few years is the race of course, of passive investment on the public space and then potential investors going, searching for alpha in the private markets. I'm not sure if that's related to what the person from the audience has asked, but potentially it does partially explain some of that.

Rachel Pether: (28:17)
Yeah, that's great. Thanks, Szymon. And if the question wasn't answered, Ken, just do let us know in the Q&A section. A couple of other questions coming, one about hedge funds, one about emerging markets, so I'll start with the hedge funds. What is your appetite for hedge funds at the moment and which type of hedge fund do you believe is attractive at this stage in the cycle?

Szymon Idzikowski: (28:42)
So a lot of allocations we do and on the hedge fund side, most of our allocations are on the liquid alternatives. So across all our models, irrespective of risk profile, we would have a bucket for alternative assets for a lot of liquid hedge funds. Most of our allocations currently are to multi-sector hedge funds so we do see value from a strategic point of view to have those allocations but we don't necessarily have resources to spend and try to allocate within that, which is why we find fund managers that will do those calls for us.

Szymon Idzikowski: (29:29)
Having said that, some of the discussions we've been having internally has been about potentially some opportunities within the event-driven space, given where we are in the market cycle and higher MNA activity and where the interest rates are. So that's probably one area where we've seen a little bit more opportunities.

Rachel Pether: (30:00)
Yeah. That's great. Thank you. And also a question from Lindsay, who said, you mentioned your excitement on emerging Asia, what are you most excited about in emerging Asia and this could be countries or themes and has COVID accelerated any of those themes or trends that you're seeing in that area?

Szymon Idzikowski: (30:22)
Yeah. So one position we initiated this year was within the equivalent of NASDAQ within China. So again, that was a play on this sort of new technology. So I think if I think about the new technology, the two hops for that is the emerging Asia and a lot of that does happen in China and the new internet based companies are your Baidus and Alibabas, which would be probably equivalents of Fancy or [inaudible 00:30:51] in the US. So we've initiated position in the spring of this year to play that.

Rachel Pether: (31:01)
So you mentioned China, that's obviously a place where older demographic... Are there certain countries within Asia that you're looking at on a country specific level, or when you look at emerging Asia, it's really more of a broad brush approach?

Szymon Idzikowski: (31:22)
Yeah, like I said, within emerging markets, we are overweighed Asia as a whole, and again, in model portfolios, I would basically appoint an external manager that then would find opportunities within Asia. But if I look at the countries there, if we do point out one country that is China, but within the China, we do like only that sort of segment of the new technology, which we would then have a dedicated product to play that.

Rachel Pether: (31:59)
Yeah. And that sounds great. We've just got a couple more minutes left here, maybe you could just finish on an optimistic note. I know you're going back home for Christmas, you'll be coming back to the UAE in the new year. What are you most looking forward to as an investment professional in 2021?

Szymon Idzikowski: (32:29)
It's an interesting question, because in a way, from investment point of view, if you look at how market has done in 2020, it's even hard to believe that something such as pandemic has happened, but the reality is economy have struggled. A lot of people have lost jobs. So in a way, if I think about 2021, I'm happy to have a little bit more moderate returns. And in a way I do think, as I've been arguing, they might be a little bit more moderate. And I do think a lot of good news is priced in, but I would like for economies now to start opening and people being able to go back to work and maybe us having this discussion in a studio or being able to rebuild some of the social relationships. So that's one thing I'm hoping for, for 2021.

Rachel Pether: (33:31)
All right. That's a great thing to hope for. And I definitely hope that next time we meet it will be in person as well. But I just wanted to thank you. Thank you so much for your time today and thank you as well to the audience. Later in the day in December, we had some really great questions. So thank you so much for the audience participation. Thank you so much, Szymon, for sharing your thoughts and insights today as well.

Szymon Idzikowski: (33:56)
Thanks for having me.

Stergios Voskopoulos: Understanding Impact Investing | SALT Talks #111

“I'm a believer of when I invest in something like private equity or VC, it has to be sustainable for the very long-term.”

Mr. Stergios Voskopoulos is the CEO of Kanoo Capital, the Investment Division within YBA Kanoo, one of the largest and oldest family conglomerates in the Middle East. As CEO of Kanoo Capital, Mr. Voskopoulos is responsible for the active management of direct and indirect investments regionally and globally.

Kanoo as an institution was incorporated all the way back in 1890 and after many decades of an oil-based economy in the region, YBA Kanoo leveraged its longstanding credentials in countries like Bahrain, Saudi and UAE to establish a wide-ranging professional investment practice. This shift to more diverse investing has created a regional entrepreneurial ecosystem designed to sustain into the 21st century and beyond. “I'm a believer of impact investing when you have the balance between impact and also economic and financial returns.”

Developing the local workforce is a key element in the mission to remake and support the regional economy. This means a strong focus on improving local universities so that fewer families feel the need to send their children to the United States or Europe for a top education.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Stergios Voskopoulos.jpeg

Stergios Voskopoulos

Chief Executive Officer

Kanoo Capital

MODERATOR

anthony_scaramucci.jpeg

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

Rachel Pether: (00:07)
Hi everyone and welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is Rachel Pether and I'm a senior advisor to SkyBridge Capital based in Abu Dhabi, as well as being the MC basalt, a thought leadership form and networking platform that encompasses business technology and politics. SALT Talks as many of you know is a series of digital interviews, where we aim to provide our audience a window into the mind of subject matter experts.

Rachel Pether: (00:35)
Today's focus is going to be on family businesses and international investing and I'm very excited to be speaking to a dear friend of mine Stergios Voskopoulos. Stergios is the CEO of Kanoo Capital, the investment division of YBA Kanoo, one of the oldest and largest family conglomerates here in the Middle East. I know that the term global citizen can be somewhat overused, but Stergios truly is a global citizen.

Rachel Pether: (01:01)
He has lived and worked in seven countries including spending the last 10 years in the Middle East and he speaks six languages. He has over 20 years of experience in asset management, private equity and MNA. He's a member of the young president's organization. He holds an MBA in a bachelor of science in computer engineering. As always, if you have any questions for Stergios during today's talk, just answer them in the QA section of your screen. Stergios, welcome to SALT Talks.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (01:39)
Hi, Rachel. I'm glad to be here and hi to all the viewers of SALT Talks.

Rachel Pether: (01:40)
We're very excited to have you here. And before we dive into specifics, I want you to tell me a bit about your personal background. Living and working in seven countries is quite a lot, especially for a man from a small town in Western Greece.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (01:55)
Sure, yes. I would love to share a little bit more about where we all start from like myself. So I was born in a small town in western in Greece called Agrinio. I was the son of two amazing parents who were both entrepreneurs. My father was in the family and business and they used to own movie theaters and my mother was also an entrepreneur. We were two brothers. So we grew up in this small town and then as we usually do in Greece, we moved to one of the big cities to study. So I moved to Athens to do my bachelor's as you mentioned in computer science back in the '90s and computer science then it was in the very beginning. So we had to work on courses from logical design to algorithmics, to networks, to the whole spectrum of computer science.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (02:54)
So that was very exciting and actually one of my first job, my first job was in IT and software development. Before weeks though, I had to serve the military. So I served the Greek Navy for almost two years and then I did my first, that 10 year old in a professional career while being a software developer. I was a manager, but I always wanted to do something in finance and to apply all this analytical thinking and algorithmic theories, also in the financial theory. And that's when I moved to New York to do my MBA in finance and then I moved to the Athen's management arena almost 20 years ago, as you mentioned. So first I was working for a financial software company, focusing on fixed income structure products from analyzing and providing all the analytics for structured products back in the 2000, it was in the very beginning from models back security, CMOs, CDOs, IBS et cetera.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (03:55)
And then I moved to one of our major clients AIG global investment group in Wall Street. Where I was a senior quantitative analyst for the one of the largest portfolios in structured products back then. And back in 2004, I moved to London, then I worked for Barclays for one year, but I was open for new adventures and move to new places. So I was looking back then to move to Asia or the Middle East. It goes to say 2005, and it was a great timing to move to an emerging markets. So that brought me to Bahrain where I'm still today in 2005 to work for Investcorp and one of the largest alternative investment firms in the world whose offices in Bahrain, in London and New York, where I worked for almost four years, then I was with another private equity fund until 2011.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (04:48)
Then I moved to Beijing in China. I moved to a more entrepreneurial period which was one of the most exciting periods I have to say in my life because, I was venturing. So I was between Asia was one of the most exciting places to be back in 2011 after the global financial crisis. And I was between Beijing, Dubai and Hong Kong for almost five years and spending lots of time in the plane. And something wanted to bring me back to be closer to my roots maybe and for me Bahrain then was always like home. I have many good friends, very good experience here. And that's that's when we discussed and we decided with the Kanoo family to set up properly under a good structure, the family investment division. And that's when I came back in 2016 and we set up what we call it today, Kanoo Capital.

Rachel Pether: (05:44)
There's so many pieces about your background that I want to go into further detail on, like the entrepreneurship, your background in technology and also this global experience, but maybe first we could discuss more about the Kanoo family. We had Mishal Kanoo the chairman on a few weeks ago and he spoke really passionately about how he felt really lucky that each generation sort of saw the next generation as a new business and very iniative. And so I'd like you to tell me about the Kanoo family and how your mandate and action setting up Kanoo Capital. And then we can maybe talk a bit deeper about the governance and institutionalization of it.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (06:32)
Sure. As many people love from the region know Kanoo it's an institution. So YBA Kanoo, which is the firm that I'm still employed by was incorporated back in 1890. So it has been operating for about 130 years. So the families from the first generation were very entrepreneurial. I think that as the region has been evolving, the same way also the Kanoo family has been growing across different verticals from trading in the beginning, from shipping, logistics to oil and gas. Oil was discovered in Bahrain, the first onshore oil in 1932 and then in 1939 in a Jbail. So the family members moved to Saudi and also when UAE, Abu Dhabi was growing back in the '70s, some other family members moved to a UAE. And for example, Mishal is one of ... The family of Mishal moved to UAE from the very beginning.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (07:38)
So you have now YBA Kanoo being present in three countries, Bahrain, Saudi and UAE. So that allowed the group to attract many international firms to express their interest to cooperate and also do other businesses in travel. Like one of the largest travel agencies and also set up mandatory ventures with firms like AXA Insuarance, like Halliburton, AkzoNobel, APM terminals, et cetera. So over the past decades, YBA Kanoo has been very well established. Corporate governance is there many family members are involved, but always aligned with a senior management team. And back in 2016, there was a vision of also setting up a more unified investment practice with a very senior professionals, experience professionals like myself and my team. So when we came on board, we set up from Bahrain, one team, one division to manage all the investments in the region and also globally.

Rachel Pether: (08:44)
And so having looked at the family group and the organizational structure there, how did you set up the governance within Kanoo Capital itself?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (08:54)
Well, there is one entity, right? One holdings group and there are many divisions and in each division, there are different family members who are more involved than others and then you have the board. So there is very clear governance of each of the divisions and how this comes under one group which is the holdings group that reports to onboard. So this way, there's one common vision there's as we call it one Kanoo and a governance is very key. We for any there is always a delegation of authority where there is always consensus, there are different voices, different opinions, debate in order to always come with the optimal decision-making.

Rachel Pether: (09:38)
So maybe we can talk a bit more about what that optimal decision-making looks like at Kanoo Capital, you're responsible for international investments across different asset classes. How do you see the world when you look at the investment landscape?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (09:53)
Well, we were very regional first, so we are very active in the region more directly. When it comes to global investments we don't do it alone, we don't do directly. We do it more with aligned with other firm managers. We have our own asset allocation would pick the asset classes that we understand and that we believed from a tactical asset allocation perspective. And then it's all about selection, selection of firm managers, selection of co-investments and selection also of securities.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (10:27)
So there is a balance which I would say that even today, it's more skewed to the region when it comes to direct investments and more active management. But, since we set up Kanoo Capital, we have been investing also globally and we always want to do things that we understand. We don't want to venture and take large risks in areas that it's not us, we don't understand, but still it sounded out overall diversification strategy and as per location.

Rachel Pether: (10:59)
And you also mentioned earlier about your background and entrepreneurialism within your personal family and studying technology as well at university, before it was even a very popular thing to study. Does this make you personally, I guess, more comfortable investing in startups and the venture capsulate ecosystem?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (11:22)
I will say yes. Investing in startups and venture capital is more about assessing people, who are the founders. Then it's about understanding the product or the service, whatever is sold to the market and to also have a clear path to go to market. But having done things on my own, I was not ... Coming from an entrepreneurial family, having seen how my parents grew their business and then how I set up businesses and or following other founders you get experience.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (11:56)
So then, when you meet a young team of entrepreneurs, it's very important first of all, to click with them. To understand what's the passion are they're there for the longterm or they are there for the quick flipping of adventure, so that's how we start. To me there are three components, people, product, go to market when it comes to startups. And technology now, nowadays is an enabler of setting up a very profitable businesses, much faster.

Rachel Pether: (12:31)
Yeah, definitely. And that echoes something that Mishal spoke about as well. He talked about the key is to look for businesses that are going to scale and how can you help be part of that scale up that's going to happen. And I know that one area that's also of interest to you is this innovation impact, investing in innovation area. How does that piece look like in terms, in practice for you? And maybe you could talk through some examples of investments that you've done.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (13:04)
I have been always talking about sustainable investments, not for the sake of ESG or investing in impactful areas. To me, I'm a believer of when I invest in something like private equity or VC, it has to be sustainable for the very long-term. So it's not about investing sustainable businesses, but something that will be sustainable for the long-term. I will not go to university in a climate polluting business. Why? Because today I might be making money, but in five years I might not. So what are your lessons coming, et cetera. I'm a believer of impact investing when you have the balance between impact. So also economic and also financial returns, because if something does not, I mean, charity is a different thing, right? We're not talking about charity here. We're talking about impactful investments that generate sustainable returns. So I'm a big believer of that area.

Rachel Pether: (14:06)
And have there been specific, I know you work across different asset classes are. There's some examples of private equity deals that you've made that's Raymond?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (14:19)
We have been involved when I was also in China in waste energy. And I saw that you have the waste that is not used, but you can also turn to regenerate energy. What better than bringing a technology that can convert waste to energy. I'm just using this as an example, right? Waste management energy efficiency, I'm talking about sustainability. And then when it comes to digital transformation, apply technology to existing business models, renovate them. You don't need to reinvent the business model itself. It's just about optimize the business model by though using technology, not replacing people. We need to look at also in the reason, right? It's not this anarchy of, If I bring technology, it's going to replace people and automation it's going to replace people. No, it's about re-skilling people.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (15:12)
So that's where education to me becomes critical. And not only elementary schooling or high schools, it's about universities, especially now with COVID. You see that fewer families who might send the kids to the US or to Europe to study and not setting up more universities here? And that's another area that we're looking at, right? From a [inaudible 00:15:33] perspective, like bringing North out here and even medical universities, it could be something.

Rachel Pether: (15:40)
No, that's really interesting. And actually I did want to dive a bit deeper on to if the pandemic had altered or changed your investment strategy. So is there something that you were looking at pre pandemic as well, or was it something that's really come to the for in the last six months or so?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (16:00)
Sure. An example, sustainability. Now we were looking at sustainability even from before, because waste to energy does not need only COVID right. To be proven and accepted, but education setting up universities for some reason, like even medical universities. I think now it's even more imperative because healthcare becomes critical also setting up universities here where the families can send the kids. It can be also subsidized from the government.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (16:33)
Training is key. We find that also in Saudi Arabia that in different areas, we need to have local workforce to respond to this needs. But also I would say that food security became, as we know, right? Critical after COVID. So we're looking at this area as well, as you know in UAE, there are many new setups like facilities that are for using all that. But Bahrain, Saudi even Kuwait, we have seen that they're looking at this space.

Rachel Pether: (17:12)
Yeah. We've actually had some audience questions coming asking for more details on the investment strategy and I'm going to ask them, I actually wish that I had asked this myself. Ken has said that you have a really interesting background and he's wondering, what is your principal goal for Kanoo Capital's investments? For example, is it to invest in areas very strategic or forward-looking to the parent company's focus or say diversify the sources of income for the parent company.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (17:44)
It's a mix, it's both. We need all families around the world have made money, but by focusing. So you have to keep being entrepreneurial, but also under high conviction approach. So you need first on the one end to know what you're doing. So that's strategically what we're focusing on the one side, but on the other side also we need to diversify for the rainy day, like COVID, right? Something happened, let's say oil, we all get scared in April, that oil will remain at the level of stock 10, so single digits or between 10 and 20. So that would have a huge impact to the region. So you have to diversify also by geography and by sector. So we're looking at the balance between the two, but always doing things that we understand well.

Rachel Pether: (18:33)
You talk about a rainy day, this COVID rainy day has lasted six months already, so much longer than one day. We've actually had-

Stergios Voskopoulos: (18:43)
You haven't seen the impact yet.

Rachel Pether: (18:48)
That's true. That's very true. We've had a question actually coming and specifically related to what you've just been saying about diversification and how do you divide diversifying with annual energy holdings. And do you have any specific views on oil off short service vehicles space and consolidation opportunities there, and I'm not sure if the second part of that question is too specific.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (19:17)
So oil we will remain. Oil and gas will be there for the very long term and what we see from our clients in the region is that they are trying to become more efficient. So what we want to do as a group is to provide all the services to make them more efficient. So that's one area, but the underlying sector as oil and gas, it's there to remain, right? The largest company in the world is right next to Bahrain at [inaudible 00:19:46]. So it's about how they become more profitable, how they look at the bottom line, the top line is there, but also how to optimize their bottom line from a cost perspective and from an efficiency perspective. So that's what we're doing as a group. We're not producing oil ourselves, but we are helping all producers petrochemicals internal.

Rachel Pether: (20:11)
That's great. Thanks Stergios. I also do want to sort of leverage the fact that you have this international experience and maybe talk a bit about some of the differences that you've seen within the family office businesses in Asia and also in the Middle East. Could you maybe talk through some of the key differences as you've seen in terms of approach between the two regions?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (20:36)
Sure. I think that this region here in terms of families and evolution, right? Intergenerational evolution is a bit more advanced than Asia, especially China, because China is a recently emerged economy, until the '70s it was still a poor country. So what I have seen being in China and Hong Kong is that still the families are in the 10 to 10, three second or third generation marks and there are not too many members. So for them it's even more imperative to structure themselves properly and to institutionalize, otherwise they will be an issue on the preservation of the wealth and the succession.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (21:27)
So here in the Middle East there the families that I know and the one that I worked for are more advanced. So it's the wealth has been created from thirties, forties, and many families are a bit more advanced in terms of access, in terms of ability to manage their operations, existing operations here, but also do access investments globally. And I have seen many entrepreneurial families in the region being present in crazy places from Latin America to Asia, Malaysia of course, right? There is a strong link Africa. So I think compared to Asia we are a bit more advanced or ahead, but there are many similarities always right when it comes to family wealth and preservation and succession.

Rachel Pether: (22:18)
Yeah, definitely. And when you look at investing, have you done much co-invest or many co-investments with other family offices? Is this an area that you're looking to do.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (22:30)
We've done in the region and we're looking globally to now. Yes. So that sounds-

Rachel Pether: (22:38)
And for areas that you're looking at and obviously the Kanoo group as a ... It's one of the whole marks in terms of family businesses in the region. And it's, I think ninth generation and it's very progressive in terms of investing, but when you're looking at an area which may be the family, isn't so comfortable with, how do you get the buy-in from the family? What does that look like?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (23:07)
We need to convince the first ourselves and then to convince through our governments, right? Our investment committees and the family has the same. So that's why we need to develop. What we might have to do is we develop a clear framework with investment criteria. So when we going from two of the principles, we know what we're presenting and there is an understanding. Otherwise, we defeat the purpose of alignment and understanding.

Rachel Pether: (23:38)
Yes, absolutely. And when you speak about the Middle Eastern versus the Asian families, I guess there's also some cultural similarities between the two regions and one topic that keeps coming up and the sell talks is this fear of failure. And I like to tie that into your views and what you're seeing in the ecosystem as to, A is that still a valid concern and B how does that play out in the entrepreneurship space?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (24:11)
Yeah, you're right. So there are many similarities and many families I've seen that they pursue a framework of being very objective than being subjective within the family. So there are family members who have different preferences, they have different interests, they have different level of involvement, understandings. The ones who are leading the family that ... That's why governance matters and also meritocracy being placed to settle this criteria and the framework where both family and management can work together in order to utilize the best skills from the family members and the professional skills.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (24:59)
And some fail. I have seen many, especially when you have only a few members in the family, the probability of failure is higher, right? So if there is on the second generation, if you have only two family members who can succeed the founder, then there is higher risk. So if you pass the third generation, I think it's nice, more structured and more robust. And there is a frame or a clear path, on how to have the family members involved and the best ones.

Rachel Pether: (25:39)
Yeah. And Mishal also spoke about the importance of supporting the regional ecosystem, not just financially, but also also with ideas and expertise and guidance, as well as supporting the regional ecosystem. Something that you're focused on at Kanoo Capital and maybe start with Bahrain since that's your home to.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (26:05)
Yeah. I think my Bahrain is a lovely place. So there is so much potential and a great infrastructure and lovely of people that can attract new businesses here. So that's what we're trying to do also as a private group. Bring new companies startups, ideas, entrepreneurs and develop a new ecosystem like Dubai has done, Abu Dhabi is doing as well. So I think the framework is there, the central bank is supporting, economic development board is supporting. You have all these frameworks to attract a new business and that's what as a private group, I'm looking at. How to support our country here and how to help all the ecosystem expand and grow.

Rachel Pether: (26:52)
And do you also look at that, I guess, bringing technology into Bahrain and building out the ecosystem, but are you also exporting and we actually have a question coming in specifically related to if you're investing in China and doing some tech transfer and partnerships between China and Bahrain?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (27:14)
Yes. I found that in the past 10 to 20 years, there are setups in the region that can export. So also from an events perspective, we have seen companies that are set up in UAE or in Saudi, or if, I think in Bahrain for example, the best digital bank in the region is based in Bahrain next to us, it's Isla bank. So there is no how that can be cultivated through the countries here. And it can be also exported not to Europe or to US, I would say. For some businesses, maybe you can do that too, but the adjacent countries, the sub-continent, Africa we were talking about the radius or 4 billion, three to 4 billion population around the region. And so I believe that there is lots of opportunity for setting up companies now, especially with technological to support in the region and export also outside before this was not happening. Only oil was exported and gas and the better chemicals.

Rachel Pether: (28:25)
Yes. It's definitely, evolved from a very one dimensional export market. That's for sure. We've had so many questions, audience questions coming in. So I'm going to try and sort of structure them into groups with regards to the governance side and also the investing side. So I'll start with one of the most sort of government's educational piece. Ken's asked, how has the educational background and focus of the latest generation of Kanoo Capital professionals influencing the focus of the board?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (28:59)
Yeah, that's a very good question. I think Mishal also had the tats on dats, right? As a family member and principle where all family members have to study and then have to go out and work on their own. They come in the group and just find an area that is of their interest and of their educational background and go through and find the right spot. So governance allows for that. That's the answer.

Rachel Pether: (29:29)
That's great. And someone has actually said that you mentioned that governance matters within Kanoo and the last specifically to pick up on that on the G of ESG. And I know that you were saying that you're looking more broadly at investing in companies that have a positive impact. But is it that you wait any part of the E or the S or the G more strongly when you're looking at investing and Lindsey has asked specifically if you focus on the G part of that equation?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (30:00)
No, I think ENS are also critical, right? So when we do a due diligence on a company, we need to make sure that they are environmentally there. They're not going to cause any because that will create, especially now reputation damage and also will not be sustainable as a business model. People that might not buy and so obviously many other counterparties are looking also for many years, you perspective how they're dealing with their providers of service or product. So both E and S are key. To us, it comes to due diligence. So we would rate the ESG component as well when we evaluate the company.

Rachel Pether: (30:42)
Yeah. And if you're looking forward, sort of to the next 12 or 24 months, I know you've spoken a bit about some of the investments that you've you've made thus far, but what are the key themes for you going forward over the next one to two years?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (30:59)
I still want it to be cautious. We haven't seen what's the real impact from this unprecedented crisis. It's a healthcare crisis and we still don't know when we're going to get out of it. Still people cannot travel and still, we have countries under lock down Europe in USA. The rates are super high, so vaccine is good. The developments around the vaccine, there are nine fives that are very positive, but still wanting to see how this will be distributed around the world. To me, it's not a matter of efficacy only, but it's a matter of distribution and effectiveness.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (31:37)
So according to that, we're still cautious, but for them into long-term, we're looking at, as I said, some areas that are hiking exceptation for us. So we are into also travel and hospitality. Travel will not cease to exist, it will be there. So we might find some great opportunities again, to invest in travel or utilize technology, to come and to apply to our existing travel business. The same comes to hospitality, which are two of the most impacted sectors right now. So we are cautious on the one end, but also opportunistic on the other end. And we are taking it month by month, but in the term we know what we want to get in terms of areas to invest.

Rachel Pether: (32:28)
Yeah. There's certainly some great distressed opportunities out there for those people that are willing to be a little bit more opportunistic.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (32:36)
Yeah. Despaired or dislocated. So there are market dislocations are rising every day as we go, because a COVID was really strong and it will remain in the history as a major crisis or a major transition to a new era.

Rachel Pether: (33:01)
Yes, definitely. And I think if anyone said that they saw it coming, I think they were lying. So it's definitely changed the way we both live and invest. And just a specific question further on the investment side, a lot of Middle Eastern groups and families have a sort of a real estate bias. It's something they're very comfortable with. Are you doing many investments on the real estate side, or it's really about diversification?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (33:32)
Well, real estate is one of the lots of sectors in the world. So it will never, it will always be there and it can always be optimized. We are looking at prop tech, like real estate technologies that we can also apply to existing asset base. But I do believe that real estate, whenever cease to exist again, it's a key sector. Of course we have to be cautious in the region we overbuilt and all we should do is actually to feel this real estate space and sustain the sector.

Rachel Pether: (34:08)
I think we must have a few real estate investment professionals on the call. Because I'm getting a lot more follow-up questions on this, but people have also asked, is there a specific sector you did mention prop tech, are there other sectors within real estate that you're looking at? Like, is it on the residential side, commercial side, logistics?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (34:31)
It's more on the commercial side, which is closer to our DNA. So we are into logistics. So we see lots of opportunity through the logistics space from a warehousing perspective and the value chain. So that's an area that we're looking. [inaudible 00:34:47] as well. As always.

Rachel Pether: (34:49)
Excellent. We have sort of less than 10 minutes left and I'd also like to talk a bit more and really leverage this international expertise that you've had, but maybe you could talk about some of the lessons that you've brought from your international experience in Asia and Europe and how you've applied that to what you're doing in the Middle East now.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (35:17)
Yeah. It's very important, sometimes when you invest in a country, doesn't matter what asset class to gain an understanding of demographics culture, underlying norms, right? Even if I want to invest in China, I know how the Chinese think because I live there. If I want to invest in Chinese stock, I understand how the retail investors are behaving in sainy. So these are all, going around the world when you want to be a global investor, it helps for sure. And sometimes not always in a good way, but also in the bad way. What I'm saying is that working and experiencing around the world, you learn things and you learn how to avoid pitfalls for investing and how to focus on what you believe that will actually generate the returns you are expecting.

Rachel Pether: (36:13)
So for someone that has internationally traveled as you, how have you found not being able to struggle for the last nine months or so?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (36:21)
No, actually that's one of the most productive periods of my life. Do you know what I realized that actually we were wasting someone's time by traveling all over and it was always an expectation from the other end too. I find now that the expectation from the other party to meet with you is not there anymore. So that makes me believe that travel will never come back to where it was. We would travel less, even if, let's say COVID disappears because now we found new ways of communicating and all this it's a matter of expectation from the other party. I don't need to come to Dubai to meet someone I can get on Zoom and have this discussion, like I've had over the past nine months. So I miss traveling, but I think if I go back to traveling, it will not be like before.

Rachel Pether: (37:12)
Yeah. I think the days of going to, flying into regional travel for one meeting are well behind us. Someone has asked what you're doing with all your free time now?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (37:25)
Working out, working on a new project. So there are some also live projects that I'm working on. Like, I mentioned movies. We're working on a documentary about movie theaters because I grew up in movie theaters. So, some areas that are more passionate for me and just also spending more time with good friends, that before we didn't use to. Now you have time for spending it in more privately and nicely.

Rachel Pether: (37:58)
Yeah. That's definitely a very good use of time for sure. We have a lot more audience questions, so I'm just trying to address a few more before we ask a couple of easier closing questions. Mustapha has asked at same set, the small and medium business segment in the JCC is chronically constrained in its growth potential by crowding out by the government or by other corporate. What are some pieces of advice or what are some ways that you can think that SMBs can break through the so-called ceiling?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (38:38)
And so Mustapha asked that the ecosystem is constrained for new entrance?

Rachel Pether: (38:41)
Yeah. So the SMB segment is often, I guess, crowded out by some of the larger corporates. What are some ways that the smaller businesses could break through this?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (38:53)
Well, it's not the case anymore. As we said, startups are there to set up easier and innovate and sometimes to actually compete directly through their own business models with the large corporates, unless a large corporates honestly innovate. So to me now it's becoming more interesting and the government supports now, right? You see, there is all of these initiatives across the GCC for bringing new businesses, supporting SMEs. Dubai work is working out on the market for SMEs, the same thing here in Bahrain through BAM. So there are initiatives out there that's support entrepreneurs to come over and set up their own business. And there is talent too, the local talent now it's much more skilled than before.

Rachel Pether: (39:45)
Yeah. I think that comes back to the points you were making before about education as well. That's definitely a great human capital element in the region. And talking about COVID and some of the trends that you're seeing, which of these trends do you think will be sticky. So, accelerated versus more temporary, so trends and food logistics or home delivery and how are you looking at sort of analyzing that sector?

Stergios Voskopoulos: (40:15)
So food security, having fresh food near your plate, it's very important. So we see this trend already emerging through COVID. Distance healthcare it's also an emerging trend, education at ed tech and anything around tech. So, but in vital sectors, my belief is that we have underestimated what technology can bring to boring sectors from logistics to education, to healthcare, to energy, to industrials in order to optimize these businesses and make them more profitable. So I think COVID accelerated the trend of technology adoption and also human capital re-skilling. So people need to learn new things now.

Rachel Pether: (41:13)
Now we're getting people rushing in saying that you said they were kind of boring industry. So be careful.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (41:21)
I'm sorry. What did they say? I didn't hear.

Rachel Pether: (41:22)
That you referred to the industry as a boring industry.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (41:26)
No, but boring is good. Sometimes it's ... on sequel.

Rachel Pether: (41:34)
And just closing question, because we are almost out of time and I just wanted to thank the audience for asking so many questions. But with the international background that you have and your sort of passion for education as well. Do you mentor other people within the family? And is that something that's important for you in terms of passing on knowledge to the next generation as well.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (42:00)
Yes, we do. And that's one of absolute the most exciting parts of my involvement with a kind of family. So I see the young family members always, we are like friends too. So they're always asking and I'm always not only me, my team and other professionals are always willing to share the know-how and to try to mentor a young family members also to help them identify what they really want to do. Because education is one part, but here you have a conglomerate into so many different verticals also through kind of cards, so many industries. So they can get a much better idea in reality, what excites them, what actually could match more their interest and their skillset. So yes, mentorship, young family members is actually, this is part of the framework work we're doing. Kanoo of how professionals interact with younger family members.

Rachel Pether: (43:02)
Well, that's great, Stergios. And thank you so much for all that you're doing within the investment ecosystem. And so then the mentorship one and thank you for your time. It's been a real pleasure talking to you as well.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (43:15)
It was a pleasure. And if I may say something, I have to say that it's like, I'm talking to you, like we're sitting at the cafe, we have a very nice open discussion, but I'm so glad that there are so many viewers and that's what SALT Talks have achieved over, especially the past eight months, to give this interview to people. So you and Anthony and John and all the other interviewers, you know the interviewees. So the discussion is I hope much more pleasant for all the viewers.

Rachel Pether: (43:47)
That's definitely be more pleasant for me. And I hope that next time it will actually be in person.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (43:51)
Inshallah.

Rachel Pether: (43:55)
Inshallah. But thanks for your kind words Stergios. We really appreciate it and we had about 25 audience questions. So everyone was clearly engaged as well. So thanks so much for giving up your time today.

Stergios Voskopoulos: (44:07)
My pleasure. Thank you so much, Rachel and thanks to all the viewers.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: The Modernization of the Financial Technology | SALT Talks #95

“Like any business, you have to try things, but in the digital world, you need to fail early, fail fast, and learn, and adopt technology allows you to maneuver very quickly.”

Abdulmohsin Al Omran is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of The Family Office Co. BSC(c) (“The Family Office”), and Chairman of the Board of Petiole Asset Management AG, the investment arm of The Family Office, based in Zurich, Switzerland.

Born into one of the oldest families in Riyadh, Al Omran set out from an early age to gain experience in different areas of finance with an eye on moving his country’s economy into the 21st century. Despite having 25% of the world’s oil reserves, Saudi Arabia is transitioning towards a more diversified economy that sees data as the new oil. “If I wanted to renew my passport or my driving license… I could do all this digitally … the private sector including the banks are trying to catch with what the government has been doing in the last five years.”

The next stage in Middle East development will center on the rapid modernization of the financial technology space and sovereign wealth funds made of diverse and strategic investment portfolios. This new approach is guided by the four C’s: Commitment, Client, Culture and Cost.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Abdulmohsin Al Omran.jpeg

Abdulmohsin Al Omran

Founder & Chief Executive Officer

The Family Office

MODERATOR

anthony_scaramucci.jpeg

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie: (00:07)
Hello everyone, and welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is John Darsie. I'm the managing director of SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum at the intersection of finance, technology and public policy. SALT Talks are a digital interview series that we launched during this work from home period with leading investors, creators and thinkers.

John Darsie: (00:27)
And what we're really trying to do on these SALT Talks is replicate the experience that we provide at our global SALT conferences which our guest today has been to several of those. And what we're trying to do at those conferences and on these SALT Talks is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future.

John Darsie: (00:49)
And we're very excited today to welcome Abdulmohsin Omran to SALT Talks. Abdulmohsin is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of The Family Office and the Chairman of the Board of Petiole Asset Management, which is the investment arm of The Family Office, which is based in Zurich, Switzerland. And The Family Office is an asset management company that has an increasingly digital focus, which is something that we're going to talk about today.

John Darsie: (01:14)
Prior to founding The Family Office in 2004, Abdulmohsin was part of the private wealth management team at Goldman Sachs in London. He started his career at Gulf International Bank in 1988, after which he worked in reputable financial institutions, such as the Saudi International Bank, Riyadh Bank, and Investcorp. Abdulmohsin holds a degree in Industrial Management with a Finance major from King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, and an MBA from the City University in London.

John Darsie: (01:43)
He's coming to us today from beautiful Manama, Bahrain, somewhere Anthony and I have been several times over the last few years, but Abdulmohsin is also a Saudi national, so we also have great relationships in the kingdom. So looking forward to talking about the growth of industry, and the financial industry in particular, in the region, and also the exciting things that are going on at The Family Office.

John Darsie: (02:05)
Just a reminder, if you have any questions for Abdulmohsin during today's SALT Talk, you can enter them in the Q&A box at the bottom of your video screen. And hosting today's talk is Anthony Scaramucci, who is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, a global alternative investment firm. Anthony is also the chairman of SALT. And I will say, Anthony is in a little bit better mood than he was about 10 hours ago. So we're looking forward to seeing his smiling face here this morning. I won't comment further on that, but Anthony, I'll turn it over to you for the interview.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:33)
First of all, for those of you that are listening, John Darsie has zero political judgment and zero political instincts. But enough about the feud between me and John Darsie, which started about 10:30 last night. I mean, we'll discuss it later on another SALT Talk. Abdulmohsin, where are you beaming in from? Bahrain? Where are you right now?

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (02:54)
Yes. I'm out of our office in Bahrain.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:58)
So Abdulmohsin, before we get started on your business and your professional career, I want to talk a little bit about the way you grew up, where you grew up, what got you into this business, why did you come into this business, and tell us something about your personal story.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (03:17)
Sure. I'm originally from Saudi Arabia. I grew up there. I did all my education-

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:25)
In Riyadh, Abdulmohsin?

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (03:27)
Yes. I grew up in Riyadh. Our family is one of the oldest families in Riyadh. We are about 1500 people today, in Riyadh. And I did my high school in Riyadh, and then I moved to the Eastern Province, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals and studied there. Then the bridge was being built to Bahrain and Bahrain, being the financial center in the eighties, and still an important financial center in the region. I took the opportunity to come to Bahrain.

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:01)
[crosstalk 00:04:01] I'm going to stop you there if you don't mind, because you're talking about a bridge being built by rain. So explain that Bahrain is effectively an Island, in the Arabian Gulf, and it is not too far, obviously off the coast of Saudi Arabia. And so this bridge was built to connect the two countries,

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (04:21)
Correct, 1986.

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:24)
And this unleashed a lot of capital deployment for the Bahrainis. And it helped the Saudis as well. Explain that if you don't mind, because we have a lot of people beaming in from the United States that may not understand that relationship.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (04:38)
Sure. Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are part of the GCC, the Gulf council, where they are all one family. Honestly they are very close to [inaudible 00:04:53] into marriage with having two tribal [economic 00:04:57] support each other. So during the times of King Fahd, King Fahd gave the orders to build a bridge with Sheikh Isa who was the father of the current King, Hamad. And that was a very important strategic move to tighten the relationship between the two countries and allow Bahrain to be closer to the most important country in the region, which is Saudi Arabia, as you all know.

Anthony Scaramucci: (05:28)
And so now you're getting your career started. How did you end up in financial services?

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (05:34)
Well, it's interesting. In 1988, I was sent to a firm. Maybe a lot of people don't know that firm when I mention it, a firm called Manufactures Hanover to New York. So I went to the city and got my training, corporate finance and credit analysis. Then once I got back to Bahrain, I managed to work at the clue department and I was asked to join the bond portfolio investments during the [inaudible 00:06:06] invasion of Kuwait. And from there, I got exposed to the investment world and then I moved to in different positions and different banks. And then I ended up with most important alternatives from that time, which was the pioneer of private equity distribution. And this region that was Investcorp became a partner. And as I was about to start up my own business, I got a call from Goldman Sachs. I joined Goldman Sachs for about three years. And then I said I'll go back and establish a wealth management platform. Lack of creativity, I chose The Family Office as a name.

Anthony Scaramucci: (06:47)
No, it's a great name. And it's obvious you've built an amazing brand in the region. And again, just for the people on the call, Manufacturers Hanover Bank was a great commercial bank in the United States, merged with Chase. Chase, eventually merged with Bank One and J.P. Morgan to create the colossal JP Morgan Chase that we have today. And so-

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (07:12)
And Chemical.

Anthony Scaramucci: (07:14)
And Chemical. That's correct. And chemical bank. And so I left out one of the other big banks that was consolidated. Interestingly enough, Abdulmohsin, as you know, all of those banks were Goldman Sachs clients back in the day. Guys like John Darsie, of course, don't remember these names, but you and I are old enough to remember these names. So let me ask you this question. You're at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs was still a partnership. And so tell us a little bit about the vintage era of Goldman Sachs prior to its public offer.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (07:49)
No, actually I was there during the time, once a post, they went public. So I joined Goldman in 2002 until 2004.

Anthony Scaramucci: (07:59)
Okay. My bad. I thought you got there in '98. So I apologize for that. So let me rephrase the question then. You were there just after the public offering, tell us about what Goldman was like 17 or 18 years ago.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (08:12)
Well, Goldman, as you know, it's a big tribe, very competitive, very focused on results. So I've learned a lot. Rubbed my shoulders with the smartest people in the family. Learned to be much more commercial. I've always said Goldman helped me to monetize my career. The thinking, the drive, the creativity setting up higher results oriented really made a big difference for me. And more importantly, as you know, the Goldman and the [XCOR 00:08:51] , the network, is something not to be matched.

Anthony Scaramucci: (08:56)
So let's segue into geo politics for one second.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (09:03)
I will ask one to know about geopolitics.

Anthony Scaramucci: (09:06)
Yeah. Well, okay. We can talk about that too, if you want. But I want to talk about the region, the Middle East. MENA. Middle East, North Africa, Saudi, Bahrain. Where you see the future, and what do you think is happening in the region? And I'll give a little bit of an editorial comment I'm having now with your help travel to Saudi Arabia many times now, I see a country that's embarking upon massive reform and massive possibilities for economic growth away from oil. And so I'm wondering if you can comment on that.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (09:43)
Sure. For those people who don't know Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia in terms of size is about two thirds of Western Europe. So from a geography, it is an important big place in the Middle East. Our neighbors are Iran from one side Iraq, Kuwait and the South Yemen. Across the Red Sea, we have South Sudan, Egypt, Jordan on the North with close proximity to Israel as well. So when you have all those neighbors, you need to make sure that you are friends with everybody and have the stability. So Saudi Arabia had always played the role of the stable leadership have, as we all know, every country experience, external internal issues, but Saudi have always managed to any of these issues very wisely and continue to ensure a very stable country.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (10:57)
And with the main focus on developing its own nationals. Saudi Arabia has 70% of its population today below the age of 14. Prince Hamad bin Salman vision of 2030 is spot on. He's addressing what are the needs of those people in 2030 and everything that is happening today is around what will be needed in 2030 by this young population. This young population is very important because they are very tech savvy. I'll give you an example, 500 times have studied in the United States or graduated from United state universities in the last 15 or 16 units.

Anthony Scaramucci: (11:47)
Well, I was going to tag on a question because I just think it's a fascinating thing and more so for the Americans that are listening in. Saudi oil reserves are approximately 25% of the world's oil reserves. Is that fair to say?

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (12:07)
Sorry.

Anthony Scaramucci: (12:11)
No, I'm saying the Saudi oil reserves are approximately 25% of the world's oil reserves.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (12:17)
Correct.

Anthony Scaramucci: (12:17)
Okay. And yet the country is in transition away from oil. And the tech industry, as an example is saying that data is the new oil. And so I would like to get your thoughts on that as it relates to the country, Saudi Arabia, but then also tie it into the family office, your business, some of the things you're doing in terms of a massively changing the landscape for technology interface in financial services.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (12:45)
Let me give you an example, how advanced the Saudi government moved in terms of technology. If I wanted to renew my passport or my driving license, or I wanted to give a permit for a friend or drivers to take my car from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain, I could do all this digitally today. The Saudi government is so advanced and I have heard specialists go on and say, Saudi government, is more advanced than even the Singaporean government. And very few people understand that. And this has been a huge initiative by the Saudi government to ensure that [the wilderness 00:13:52] and this is the one of very few times that the government has really leapfrog the private sector and the technology side. Now the private sector, including the banks, are trying to do a catch up with what the government have been doing in the last five years.

Anthony Scaramucci: (13:54)
Well, tell us about the future of financial services in your mind and what your vision is for wealthy individuals in the region and how you plan to help them and how you plan to use technology to help them.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (14:08)
So onto me, you remember your days at Goldman, even my days at Goldman, we would never have thought that ETFs would replace algorithm trading would replace a lot of the brokerage business. Who would have ever thought the [Tropin 00:14:26] held over. E-Trade another, almost trading at zero cost. This is something that is happening today. And we will see a huge acceleration in the whole financial services industry in the coming five years. I used to think two years ago, I thought in 10 years. Today, I think it's five years if not three years. The rationalization of the industry is going to take place. We have an important inflection point. Our region is no different. People would like to get financial simplification of their lives. So anyone who would provide that financial simplification of their financial life is going to be a winner.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (15:15)
Today, there are a lot of individual FinTech companies that have addressed parts of the financial complexities. But there has to be yet someone to be able to put this together all the way from current account, which is digital banking to our consumer loans, to mortgages, to investments, pledging your investment for further investments for those people who want to do marketing trading and so on. Credit card, producing your taxes, your income statement and balance sheet. Can you imagine just going to one place and all that is done for you? I think we'll see this in less than five years.

Anthony Scaramucci: (16:00)
Well, I think it's amazing, which is why I wanted to bring it up to you. I'm personally blown away by the rapid modernization, if I'm even pronouncing it right. The modernity, if you will. I see Darsie laughing at me pronouncing modernization. Okay.

John Darsie: (16:20)
It's almost like you didn't get much sleep yester night. It's modernization.

Anthony Scaramucci: (16:23)
Okay. Let me, I got a [inaudible 00:16:26] and I just have to fix my eye while I'm talking to you. But the entrepreneurship, the modernity and the country, because I can't pronounce modernization because I'm exhausted. Let's talk a little bit about those two things. And how has the region been successful in creating this new technology ecosystem?

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (16:47)
Well, as I said, the governments in this region have focused into how do they improve the quality of lives of people in these countries. While other countries around us have spent most of their money on weapons or financing the wrong people, our countries have really invested in its own nation. And we have seen the sovereign wealth funds building very important strategic portfolios that will enable us to continue doing that. In addition, it has taken the lead, as I said, in creating a platform that makes it easier for businesses to do that. So I'll give you an example. By the end of this month, we will be able to onboard clients in Saudi Arabia, all digitally with seven clicks. Can you imagine the whole KYC is done digitally?

Anthony Scaramucci: (17:46)
Well? Yeah. I mean to me, it's fascinating before I turn it over to John, because we've got a ton of questions coming in from the audience participation. I want to ask you about NEOM and what your thoughts are there. And just for our American listeners, NEOM is a brand new project from Prince MBS, talking about building a $600 billion city, sort of in the Northeast quadrant up alongside the red sea in Saudi Arabia. This would be a city of the future. And it would be a city that I think would transform Saudi Arabia for that matter. And I just wondered if you could give us your thoughts and opinion on that and where you see that development going.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (18:32)
Yeah. You know, for most people, when they hear these projects, they think it's a [Samanage 00:18:40] for us. It isn't because we do, we did live what happened in this region. I'll give you an example about 70 miles away from where I'm sitting today, there a city called Jubail. So if you went there in the seventies, it's just dessert next to the sea. Today, Jubail is the world largest petrochemical complex in the world with that produces about 8% of the petrochemicals in the world. Okay. [inaudible 00:19:17] which is the largest oil exporter. So no one can imagine what takes place over the 20, 30 years and this future. So NEOM it's a tragic location. The vision of Prince Hamad bin Salman is going to be realized. Are we going to realize it few years earlier? A few years later? I don't know, but it will happen. I assure you. I've seen a lot of visions in this region, I've got executed, and these are going to be a game changer for the region.

Anthony Scaramucci: (19:55)
My last question, before I turn it over to John, the UAE and Bahrain, as well as Saudi Arabia have maintained a very good relation with the United States, but they are also increasingly looking to the East to develop good commercial ties to China. What do you, in the middle East, see the position of the middle East, I should say, what do you see it in terms of the evolving world order and how would you like to see it?

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (20:24)
Well, in 2005, so it was my first time to go to China. And I visited with our dear friend, David Dusk. In 2007, I took 30 of my investors to China. And then we repeated the stroke twice in 2009, 2010. And all of them said, wow, all this has taken place without us seeing. I remember took them to [10 cents as 00:20:25] an example with [inaudible 00:20:54] as well. And everybody thought it's expensive and they'd missed it.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (20:58)
But look where we are today compared to 2010, that the whole Asia, not only China, we all know it's going to be the growing part of the world. That doesn't mean that we are turning our back to the West. We are educated in the West. Most of our nations are educated in the West and understand the West well. So we'll continue those relationships for sure. But if you look at how Saudi Arabia has always been, as I said to you has been always creating stability and everything that does Saudi Arabia is the custodian of the two Holy mosques, which is for Islam. And Islam, our greeting is Asalaam-Alaikum, may peace be on you.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (21:45)
So Saudi Arabia tries to always be in peace with itself, with everyone [inaudible 00:21:51] but ensuring that it is not going to be a victim or any nation. For any company, you will never rely on one supplier. You always have to diversify its portfolio, or its relationships, especially given the Asian proximity, the pilgrims bring a lot of Asians for the last thousand 400 years plus to Mecca. So the familiarity of the Asian continent is something that we do understand. We might not understand the language, but most of them speak English. We speak English and understanding the culture and the proximity is very important for us.

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:39)
Okay. Well, I appreciate you coming on Abdulmohsin. I'm looking forward to the pandemic ending so I can get back to Bahrain and eat and cut with you. That was the last time I was there, frankly. I was with your son in that amazing restaurant. I'm going to turn it over to John Darsie so that he can ask some questions from the audience. And I apologize for mispronouncing modernization, but I haven't slept in 24 hours. There's a small thing going on in the U S right now that I happened to have been involved in the last six months. So go ahead, Darcy, start pronouncing the things appropriately. Okay, go ahead.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (23:18)
I doubt you'll sleep tonight.

Anthony Scaramucci: (23:20)
Yeah, no, it's going to be another interesting night although I'm very confident in the outcome now for a number of different things that I've learned today. I do believe that the vice-president will be the 46th president by January 20th. And I think that'll be good for the world actually. And it'll also calm things down. And, but that's for another topic that's for another day, Mr. Abdulmohsin. Go ahead, John. I, you got a ton of questions. Go ahead, fire me.

John Darsie: (23:47)
Absolutely. It was great eating at cut and Manama. Also, Riyadh, home to a lot of beautiful restaurants, beautiful Italian restaurants. We have some great meals recently in Riyadh, and I think people would be blown away going to both of those cities, Manama and Riyadh, just to see how quickly things are growing and modernizing as well as Abu Dhabi and Dubai, which obviously we have a great friendship there and had our conference most recently at SALTS, Abu Dhabi. And you spoke at SALTS Abu Dhabi, and you run a great panel with Abdallah Obeikan. And he's a leading thinker in the fields of digitization, digital transformation. You guys had a great conversation. I would encourage people to go on our YouTube channel and check it out if they haven't seen that talk. But one thing you talked about is the importance in this industry of scaling fast and failing fast. What are the benefits of taking a more aggressive approach to digitization and modernization of your systems? Even if it leads to failure in the initial phase?

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (24:48)
Yeah. Like any business, you have to try things, but in the digital world, you need to fail early, fail fast and learn and adopt technology allows you to maneuver very quickly. The skill sets that are available, whether from design, whether from coding, the data science, et cetera, enables you to adjust and move to the next level. So we are, I wouldn't say we have done, but we have really made the big progress in our, in both [Javanese, 00:25:28] our digitalization, [ Jordan, 00:25:34] and the digital transformation. Both projects are going very well. And I expect that by mid next year, we will be in a very unique position with our offering or our ability to service our clients much more than we do today.

John Darsie: (25:53)
One thing you talked about in that panel at SALTS Abu Dhabi was the importance and the challenge of creating a culture of innovation and a technology forward type of culture within your firm. What are the things that you've done at the Family Office to allow yourself to build that type of culture? And how do you think it's benefited your work?

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (26:16)
The culture is one of the four Cs. I always say, when you buy a diamond you look at the four Cs. and in order to have a perfect digital transformation, you need to have the four Cs. The first C is you get the commitments from the board and the management. And that is one of the most difficult things to do. [inaudible 00:26:37] Number two, you need to be client focused. Everything you're doing is not anymore about the firm. It's much more about what the client needs. What are the client's pin points? How can I make their life much easier to do things? Number three is the culture, which is the most difficult thing in the whole journey and the culture you need to start early, you need to educate your team. You need to train them in a workshop.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (27:08)
You need to get them to take courses. And through this process, which would take an average firm, if they are lucky, they do it properly, two years. And if you do it well, you will know who is in your firm are going to be continuing with you and who are the wise who will decide most likely themselves, that this is not for them. And they would like to go and work in a much more traditional, slower base industries or style of management. So that is really the most difficult from everything that I have read and may have experienced.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (27:45)
You need to expect that about 50% of your team are going to make it. And 50%, they're not going to make it over two to three years. So they will be replaced. You will not need to replace the 50% because what digitalization, digital transformation, you would have gained some efficiencies that will enable you to operate at the higher multiples of scale, with lower number of people. The new 25 people that sent, let's say that you would bring in to replace the 50% that went out are going to come with a completely different way of thinking, operating. If you come to our office, you will see that people are putting stickers on the walls or post-its. They are writing on glass windows. It's a different environment.

John Darsie: (28:41)
It's like a mini Google type of environment.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (28:43)
Absolutely. So you have to accept that and you need to try to weave the old culture with the new culture. A lot of times make a mistake with developing a separate digital business, not being integrated with the original business, but that's the most difficult thing. The fourth C is going to be the cost. A lot of times, things that through digitization and digital transformation, costs is going to go down. Absolutely not. You will have to invest your costs will actually go up as a dollar amount, but once you really make it, you are going to get much more number of clients, which would make the cost per client, way lower. And very few people understand this.

John Darsie: (29:34)
So I recently got a demo of your wealth management platform. It's fascinating. And I understand you have a new launch coming up potentially early next year. Is that something you guys are talking about publicly and where do you see the firm going in the next five or 10 years? We have an audience question from [mats 00:29:51] talking about that. What you see the firm doing in the next five to 10 years?

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (29:54)
As I said before, the world is going to be much more connected. There are a lot of great FinTech companies out there that could not scale. They could not have the clients, but they really have unique products. So what we are doing, we are preparing ourselves to plug and play with some of those 10 tech that have an age. So they would generate revenue, but not of the very high cost us and our clients, but adding them together as a puzzle, we'll give you a beautiful picture. If, that is the simplification of it. Another thing is the ability to connect with the bigger firms, whether it's BlackRock, whether it's fidelity or E-Trade and so on. And allowing the clients to access a lot of those funds almost at zero cost. And that's going to be big game changer in the coming five years.

John Darsie: (30:52)
So Anthony talked a little bit earlier about how the kingdom of Saudi Arabia has invested a lot through the public investment fund and other entities to build a technology portfolio, but also build a technology ecosystem in Riyadh, in Jeddah and other places as well. Can you comment on sort of the maturity of the venture capital industry in the kingdom and the access to financing for early stage projects that exists not just in the kingdom and Riyadh, but also in, in Bahrain and the region as well?

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (31:24)
Yeah, the Saudi government has not only encouraged, but also have been funding, giving all the help to the small startups, setting up funds and encouraging the banks, encouraging investors and this and those startups. If you look at the time, span, things have moved extremely fast in this region. If you look at Kareem, for example, have been acquired by over. So there are a lot of successful... Tuk had been acquired by Amazon. So there have been a lot of great examples that have really motivated a lot of the youth that got educated in computer science and business and finance to really venture and take the risk. We all know that this is not easy. The failure rate is very high, but the fact that there is appetite to take risk supported by the governments creating FinTech hubs. Bahrain recently announced 973 technology hub. [inaudible 00:00:32:35]. So nobody has that.Abu Dhabi is having now another one, Saudi been having it. So this is going to really mushroom. I believe about the coming 10 years.

John Darsie: (32:46)
It's very exciting for us. You know, we've spent an increasing amount of time in the region, in the UAE and Bahrain and in Saudi. And just to reiterate what we talked about earlier, I've been blown away by the amount of entrepreneurial spirit that's emerging among young people in the region. And we think it's going to be an area of growth around the world. You look around Europe, you look around the United States. The world is sort of starved of growth and with the demographics and the amount of entrepreneurship in the region, we think it's going to be a continued area of growth. So we're very excited to work with you and work with others around the region to grow our presence and grow awareness of what's going on in the region. So Abdulmohsin, we're going to leave it there. Thank you so much. Anthony, do you have a final word for Abdulmohsin before we let him go?

Anthony Scaramucci: (33:33)
Well, I know that John wants to wear that head dress someday Abdulmohsin, but you and I have been friends for two decades. And so I'm going to insist that under no circumstances is he allowed to do that. Okay. I want him to continue his life with that hilly billy hair, with that center part that makes him look like Ichabod Crane. Okay. So no head dress for him. Okay. Is that an agreement you and I have before I sign off?

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (33:58)
Well, the reason I, one of the reasons I have this is I didn't have his hair, so I have to cover it up.

John Darsie: (34:05)
Thank you, Abdulmohsin. Anthony was hurting my feelings and you say cold man.

Anthony Scaramucci: (34:09)
That is too politically correct for me, especially coming from Bahrain. Well, God bless you. Congratulations on this great business that you've built. And John and I are looking forward to the prospect of potentially doing many more SALTS conferences in the region. You were an amazing partner to our event in Abu Dhabi. And so we're looking forward to having you do that for us in the region, in the future, once the pandemic ends.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (34:35)
Thank you. [inaudible 00:34:40].

Anthony Scaramucci: (34:38)
See you soon.

Abdulmohsin Al Omran: (34:39)
Thank you. Bye now.

Winston Ma: The Global Digital Economy | SALT Talks #90

“It is estimated that [sovereign funds] have $30 trillion under management, so they have enormous power in the capital markets… that's why it is important for the capital markets to get to understand this group.”

Winston Ma is an investor, attorney, author, and adjunct professor in the global digital economy. He is one of a small number of native Chinese who have worked as investment professionals and practicing capital markets attorneys in both the United States and China. Most recently, he was Managing Director and Head of North America Office for China Investment Corporation (CIC), China’s sovereign wealth fund, for 10 years. Prior to that, Ma served as the deputy head of equity capital markets at Barclays Capital, a vice president at J.P. Morgan investment banking, and a corporate lawyer at Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP.

Hedge funds and asset managers typically get most of the spotlight from the media when it comes to large investment groups. In reality, sovereign funds play massive roles in the capital markets, yet are under-discussed and not fully understood relative to their importance.

“They are the LP investors in many of the hedge funds; they are the deal-making people which engage the investment banks and they're typically the mother of the funds.”

Sovereign funds have historically been more passive in their investing, but have become much more active. Even more recently, funds have shifted away from traditional asset classes like real estate to venture. This shift to venture is a higher risk, higher reward investment profile and has offered a large pool of available venture capital in places like Silicon Valley.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Winston Ma, CFA, Esq..jpeg

Winston Ma

Former Managing Director

China Investment Corporation (CIC)

MODERATOR

anthony_scaramucci.jpeg

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

Rachel Pether: (00:08)
Hi everyone and welcome back to Salt Talks. My name is Rachel pether and I'm a senior advisor to SkyBridge Capital based in Abu Dhabi, as well as being the MC result. Thought Leadership Forum and networking platform that encompasses business technology and politics. Now as many of you know, Salt Talk is a series of digital interviews with some of the world's foremost investors, creators and thinkers. And what we're really trying to do here is, provide our audience a window into the mind of subject matter experts. The subject for today's talk is going to be on sovereign wealth funds and venture capital investing. And who better to discuss these topics with Ben Winston Ma, who is the former Managing Director at the China Investment Corporation, one of China's sovereign wealth funds.

Rachel Pether: (00:56)
He spent 10 years as the MJ and Head of North America for the CIC, and was a founding member of the CIA's private equity department, and also the Special Investment Department, direct investor. He is the author of China's Mobile Economy, the Digital Silk Road, China's AI Big Bang, and investing in China. He also has two new books coming out this year, actually, one later this week, which we'll go into more detail on later. In 2013, Winston was selected as a Young Global Leader at the World Economic Forum. He has multiple degrees, and he has served as an adjunct professor at a number of world class universities. As always, if you have any questions for Winston, just enter them in the Q&A section of your screen. And with that, Winston, welcome to sell talks.

Winston Ma: (01:46)
Yeah, thanks for having me, Rachel.

Rachel Pether: (01:50)
It's such a pleasure to have you with us today once so now you are you're an investor, you're an attorney, You're an author, and you're obviously also a professor in the global digital economy. So maybe we just start by you telling me a bit more about your personal background.

Winston Ma: (02:07)
In 1997, I received a scholarship from NYU Law School. So I came to New York, which started my Wall Street career. First, as a lawyer at the Davis Polk, and then after B-School, I joined JP Morgan, for Equity Capital Markets, convertibles and derivatives. 2007, Barclays Capital, started US equity business and they hired me to start their business. And they also in the same year, CSE was set up to manage a portion of China's sovereign wealth the trillion dollar foreign reserve. So starting from the beginning of 2008, I moved back to China to become an investment professional to manage a portion of the country's wealth.

Winston Ma: (03:00)
Between the 10 years at CIC, I also spent four years in Toronto, Canada for CSE North America office actually for the first time, CIC had overseen the office, and they picked Toronto for the North America presence. That was sort of my 20 years in the capital markets. 10 years on Wall Street, working on global capital and China opportunities. And then, last 10 years I was with CIC that was more like China capital and global investments. Right? And I moved back last year to back to the capital markets, it seems life has its own way of circling around, and the rhymes in different time is not that interesting [crosstalk 00:03:50]

Rachel Pether: (03:52)
Definitely, and so with over this 10 years of experience, I do want to sort of maybe take a step back and start with the why. So, you have a great deal of experience with the sovereign wealth fund world and your time at the CIC. Why is this group of investors increasingly important for the capital market players?

Winston Ma: (04:14)
Yeah, to put this into context, right, here's a quick question, who holds the power in the financial markets? To many people the answer probably would be, the large investment banks, the big asset managers and the hedge funds because they are often in the Media Spotlight, right? But this new group of sovereign funds, I would say because this concept includes the sovereign wealth funds, includes the public pension funds, as well as the investment arms of many central banks. And this group of investors have huge amount of capital, it is estimated that they have $30 billion, sorry trillion dollars actually, $30 trillion on the management.

Winston Ma: (05:00)
So they have enormous power in the financial market. And to put this again into the contest, right, they are actually the enablers of the players in the media every day. They are the LP investors in many of the hedge funds. And they are the deal making people which engage the investment banks and certainly, they're typically the mother of the funds, or many asset managers, just starting from their large size of capital, they are super, super important to this capital markets. But they are still very little known. And that's why it is important for the capital markets to get to understand this group.

Rachel Pether: (05:47)
Interesting, and last time I saw you was actually in Austin, and we were at a sovereign wealth fund conference and I pretty much just sit here in my apartment, and you've actually gone and written two books, and one of them is about this digital economy at the hunt for unicorns, how the funds are reshaping investments in the digital economy. Can you tell me more what we can expect from less than how that 30 trillion of investment capital plays into the digital economy?

Winston Ma: (06:19)
Sure, the big background of this is, these sovereign funds used to be very passive and behind the scene, and in recent years they've become, many become much more active and direct in the capital markets. And they started with the traditional asset classes, like infrastructures or real estate or the general p industries. And in more recent years, they made this leap forward into the venture investing, which used to be viewed as drastically different from institutional investing, right, because venture investing is very specialized. And it's tends to be very early stage and small ticket size. And they are, they take times and they are a high risk, high return, which is very different from the typical risk profile, right. That the institutional investors look for.

Winston Ma: (07:28)
So it's in this kind of context, we come to see the sovereign funds become the new power for venture capitalists, and they naturally bring change to the traditional play of venture investing and Silicon Valley. So the way to think about their difference is in the following ways. Firstly, obviously the large size, they have trillions of dollars under management just individually right for some largest players. So their average equity check is very large, very different from the typical VC investment. And secondly, they are much more long term, fewer IPO of tech companies compared to many years ago. Right. And there's a third aspect is, they are called sovereign investors, so they inevitably they have this government connections. So in the middle of this geopolitical tensions around tech competition, inevitably, they're caught up in the global tensions, which is also different from the typical VC fund.

Rachel Pether: (08:37)
Yeah, so she let's pick up on each of those points that you just mentioned, the first one being about the large ticket size, and

Winston Ma: (08:45)
exactly

Rachel Pether: (08:45)
how big daddy, and if you look at the SoftBank Vision Fund, right.

Winston Ma: (08:49)
Exactly

Rachel Pether: (08:49)
100 billion dollars, 60 billion from two Middle Eastern investors. So, can you elaborate a bit more on actually how the sovereign wealth funds access this venture capital, and maybe also specifically on how the vision fund has impacted this landscape?

Winston Ma: (09:08)
Yeah, the vision fund is a great example of this big ticket size of the sovereign funds. Because the overall theme of vision fund can be summarized by two words, right, think big. I think that's sort of the motto from Masayoshi Son, think big. So, from the unicorn side, I think that means the startup masters, think big in terms of develop their business and become the leading company in their respective sector, right. I think that's what Masayoshi Son was preaching. And then from correspondingly from the investment perspective, that means they are ready to write a very big check, right?

Winston Ma: (09:55)
So in a sense, they are not only the unicorn hunters, but they also they can be viewed as unicorn feeders. Yeah, obviously if you didn't find a fitting that built, but a lot of other sovereign funds are also in that category, right? The best example of that probably is head of financial, the upcoming IPO of the fintech arm of Alibaba. Now they of course, they're looking for a 200 billion plus valuation for IPO, that's a large number. But even before this IPO two years ago, when they had the private round of financing, they got to 100 because they got to 150 billion valuation. To a large extent thanks to many sovereign funds investing during that that round which includes the Singapore sovereign funds of Temasek and the GIC.

Winston Ma: (10:49)
And even some less known sovereign funds, like the Malaysia is khazanah. And also, guys from the patient world, such as CPPIB Canadian patients. And of course before that 150 billing round CIC and China's Social Security fund another sovereign investment vehicles of China, were already investors in enter financial years ago, right. So, these big ticket investments from the same investors definitely created these unprecedented valuation of unicorns. That's the Think of Big Site, right. And the consequences, now we have too many of the unicorns. It's 2013, when the word unicorn was created, there were 38 unicorns across the world. And by 2020, by the data end of 2019, globally there are more than 400 unicorns, that means during the seven, eight years, seven years actually, we had a tenfold increase of the number of unicorns, and I would say just think big from sovereign funds. A tree is a major reason for that.

Rachel Pether: (12:15)
And don't you think that's for myself actuating as these unicorns are often the market leaders and extremely well capitalized. That's almost a self fulfilling prophecy. And that sort of thing. Like you get a startup, $500 million to build a business, they're going to crush the competition. They have similar teams and other resources.

Winston Ma: (12:41)
I think the word similar is the key, Rachel, because in some way unicorns are hunted, they are manufactured. Once people see the formula of well, two unicorns a lot of smart people began to industrialize that manufacturing chain of unicorns, right. It's not only in Silicon Valley, but also in China. And it's not only China in the US, but also other innovation hubs in the world, such as India, right. The typical ingredients of a unicorn is online service, based on online service on internet platforms, promoted by social media, right, and partnership with existing giants, who have large user traffic.

Winston Ma: (13:36)
And of course, on top of that as you mentioned, right is taking the venture money and subsidize users to generate more traffic and attention. Right. So, this is the time of this time to come to reflect a tree. There's this global downturn, this pandemic, right. And this global tensions all the headwinds are ravaging the hurt. When you take a closer look at the hurt some are pretty troublesome, some already took on too much fat they can now race, some are beautiful show, not for the race and some are even worse, they already got sick from their own issues, like we work that kind of situation, right? So, you need like, you have to kind of see a doctor. So this is a very interesting time to revisit this hurt[crosstalk 00:14:41]. They have to be kind of active investor even more quickly, to take on the unicorns more directly and in a more involved way.

Rachel Pether: (14:55)
Yeah, I think that's a great point on the case studies and I'd love to dive a bit in front We work later on, and then how might be excess capital played into that equation. But one of the points you mentioned was this long term investment piece. We actually had Russ and I know that you're friends with as well from the hedge fund. And he was on yesterday talking about how countries can and should use their wealth to invest more domestically and potentially, especially given the current pandemic impacting local economies. How do you see that playing out? And what are your views on investing in the hometown?

Winston Ma: (15:39)
Yes, that's a great, great point very relevant in the post COVID global economic recovery. The background of this is even before pandemic, a lot of the sovereign funds already have multiple objectives, on one hand they seek financial returns, at the same time they are also trying to use their investments to help their domestic economic development. And in the Middle East the guys you mentioned are probably the best examples, certainly, when they put a 60 billion in vision fund, they're not only looking for financial investments, right. But also they want to transform their economies from fossil fuel based into more innovation based economy, right.

Winston Ma: (16:29)
And we're seeing more and more like this for example, in Africa, right, you see more sovereign funds are being they are being created, to better manage their resources money, and use them to finance their economic transformation, especially the digital transformation. Right. So I think the way we put this into historic context where it can be like this, during the last, after the last financial crisis, 2008 lots of countries have used the sovereign funds or mobilized sovereign funds to invest new infrastructure as a catalyst for economic recovery. Right. And let's say 12 years later, 2020, for the post COVID recovery, it's quite natural that the countries would do similar things, but I think they will focus more on the digital ecosystem, to your economy ecosystem, and the digital infrastructure.

Winston Ma: (17:33)
Obviously the world is still lack of more toll roads and highways and utility grid, right. But at the same time to be competitive in the upcoming digital economy the emerging markets, I would argue, have even more important need for more digital infrastructures, data centers, fiber connectivities, and even just the basic internet connectivity, so that, globally about the three billion people who do not have the internet connectivity can be part of the digital ecosystem. That can bring some growth catalyst to the world economy. So I can imagine, just like during the last crisis the government funds have used a sovereign capital to invest in infrastructure to promote growth. Now, we may see more sovereign funds, putting money into digital economy, as the new growth engine post to call it.

Rachel Pether: (18:46)
Yeah, no, that's a great point. As you mentioned, we are seeing that in the Middle East, particularly, as well, you've placed a lot of emphasis on this word sovereign. And obviously, they are represented 100% owned by sovereign nations. How do you see the tension? Because we spoke about China, US tech investment is also kind of at the forefront of the geopolitical battle rail, as well. So could you maybe explain how that technology battle sort of plays into that geopolitical tension?

Winston Ma: (19:22)
Yes, the technology is the front line of every index, right. And it's no exception for the sovereign funds. But to some extent it's kind of just coincidence of time. But it played out in the broader context. What I mean by this is the sovereign funds are obviously becoming active investors and direct investors in technology. So from the historical context, it's a natural extension, right? They started as passive investor, and they become the random Investors in the asset classes they're familiar with, like infrastructure in a real estate and a graduate they extend into every sectors they are interested. So they become this new venture capitalist.

Winston Ma: (20:15)
So this is the historical context. But let's say the current attention is we were just talking about the historical development. But the current attention is that technology is viewed as a strategic assets of a country. Right. like the data, like advanced technology these are viewed as strategic assets, and even national security by all nations. Right. So it's just interesting to see this collision at a time that all the sovereign funds are becoming actively invested in the tech sector, and they recognize that tech investments can be a useful tool for their own economic development. On the other hand, right, there's a host countries, the countries that are receiving the capital investment, become more alert or become more conscious of the value of technology, and they are increasing their regulations and scrutiny, right, of such foreign investments. And I think that's sort of the context of this collision we're seeing today

Rachel Pether: (21:33)
I guess you mean, TikTok in the current debates in the US a great example of that data and the information.

Winston Ma: (21:49)
Exactly, TikTok probably the best example of this. It's really not surprising to you, it's a main case for my upcoming book, right, into the title of The Hunt for Unicorn, hasami investments, change the future of digital economy. So what I meant by that is, TikTok represents a very important case study for all the stakeholders in this. One, entry. First of all, it's a very positive story, because a TikTok represents a growth story during pandemic, right? Because of the pandemic TIKTOK during the first half of 2020, was the second most downloaded app in the world. And of course you know what's the number one, right, this is Zoom? So after Zoom, TikTok was most downloaded. So it shows you that even with the pandemic, there are still growth areas, right.

Winston Ma: (22:54)
So there are still new opportunities coming up, which means this hunt for unicorn story will continue. That's number one, very pod. The second aspect of this uniqueness of the TikTok cases is that it may give us useful reference in terms of cross border data management, because except for the US company, Apple, TikTok and its parent company ByteDance is the only company in the world that has large number of users in both US and China. They have Chinese users and US users in respective territory each shoe is more than 100 Millions, which is unique trick. So, this is the first case of governments to work out a scheme that can handle a company that has data in different countries. Like Google does not have a presence in China. So Google doesn't have this issue. Facebook is not in China, Facebook doesn't have that issue. Alibaba is very big in China, but Alibaba is not very big in the US. Right.

Winston Ma: (24:16)
But TikTok and ByteDance is unique in the sense that it has users in both countries, and no matter what kind of the term sheet come out, it will be a very useful reference to understand how governments kind of going to work out. And then the third aspect of the TikTOK cases is there's real money on the line. Right? Because if there's no solution and right now the US is saying, you mus sell, you must sell TikTok to US companies, because it's national security of the US, right. And a Chinese saying we were going to manage the sale of the algorithm, because this is the national security of China. Right? So if I tell you, as a former GEO lawyer banker investor, it's not very easy to please do governments at the same time, right. So if you don't have a good term sheet, if you don't have a solution, then TikTok must be shut down. And it's Then the 50 billion valuation people put to TikTok work will go just like that. So there's real money on the line in the context of the TikTok case.

Rachel Pether: (25:33)
Do you actually say that as a risk that it could just be shut down? If they can't come to a conclusion?

Winston Ma: (25:40)
Maybe, because if you don't have a solution like, who eventually hold the algorithm. And who will manage and control the user data? Right. And just to highlight the complexity remind you that the algorithm has been trained by data from both sides. So in a sense that the China algorithm was trained by the US user data. So it's not very easy to come up with a rationale to give this thing up, women need the King Solomon, to give us some wisdom about this.

Rachel Pether: (26:30)
I guess as you say, it's a very interesting case study. Because normally, when you look at China and the US digital economy, it's quite bifurcated, right? So you have, Amazon, you have Alibaba. And I guess this is a true case that I also want to briefly touch on because you've been looking at this area for a while you published China's Mobile Economy a few years ago on that and looked at sort of the world changing digital transformation in China. Back then, why was an inflection points on the internet in China, and maybe also talk about how today's geopolitical tensions is applying to that?

Winston Ma: (27:12)
Yeah, sure the book of China's Mobile Economy was written in 2016, published in 2016. And that was sort of the fastest growth time of China's mobile internet. That was certainly a huge inflection point for China's internet, because overnight, people go mobile. Right. So, that's the beginning of this mobile only age. What I mean, mobile only me. I mean, for many Chinese people, their first time to be connected to the internet, is the time they have a smartphone. They never had a PC, they never had a landline phone. But with the smartphone, all of a sudden, they have a phone, and it also they have the internet.

Winston Ma: (27:59)
And that's a very big thing because in just a few years, China become this largest mobile internet population in the world with more than 900 million people that's almost like the combined population of the US and Europe right. So that's a huge, huge growth during just this few years. Now the development of the internet industry of that time can be referred to as copied to China. CTC Copy to China, which means the first generation of Chinese tech companies had their start as copycat versions of Western size. In a cell phone, Alibaba was viewed as the Chinese version of eBay, at the very beginning, Alibaba and then it added alipay so you say that's eBay plus PayPal, or Weibo it was viewed as Chinese version of Twitter, and Tencent may be viewed as Chinese version of Facebook plus messenger, right.

Winston Ma: (29:19)
That's the general perception during that time, right. Now what's interesting is after this period of growth, China's innovation ecosystem has entered into the second face, this face in many areas actually, China has become a trendsetter instead of a trend-follower in the mobile economy for example, TikTok is very good example. Right? It started this phenomenon of short video, and then Facebook is adding similar features to its empire. Right. So, this face you can refer to China copy PCC, right. And of course there's a short video just for the teenagers, but the doubt version of this is in the last couple years, like China was mostly doing the ketchup relating to smartphones and The 4G network and in and the mobile internet economy. But with last few years of development, China has become a equally interesting Innovation Center just like the Silicon Valley of the US.

Winston Ma: (30:38)
Right? So what do you see is, the big data from the 900 million users have become the base for AI and big data analytics. The large internet platforms in China become the infrastructure for next generation startups. And of course during that process, a huge millions of college students become entrepreneurs, college graduates. So I think in new summary, essentially, what we're seeing is, in theory, the 4G, the age of 4G, and the smartphone, China had proved its catch up. And now, as we enter into the age of 5G, China is becoming a equally important innovation centers, and in many areas, China is competing with the US head to head and to your question about geopolitical tension context. And I think that's the link to the geopolitical tensions. Because years ago, it was a follower. Now, it is a competator.

Rachel Pether: (31:48)
Yeah, that's a great point less likely to be threatened by someone else by just following what you're doing. And actually, we have a number of audience questions that have come in, and they're all quite heavy, meaty questions, so I am going to go through them. We have time. So again, thank you, as always, for your question. Again, he's asked what do you think so we had is really on giving his perspective that China and the western market are developing bifurcated internet standards? And are there different approaches to say the development of AI? And maybe you could also talk about what you mentioned about how China's market size plays into that, and just that maybe give them an advantage? In this area with 900? Or over a billion users?

Winston Ma: (32:37)
Yes, specific AI right I think what's, what's really makes China different is the government come up with a comprehensive policy and agenda to set for its development phase, development paths the trigger point was 2017, when Google's AI machine beat a Chinese player in the go chess game, which proved that AI is way let's say smarter than human players. Right. And that sort of triggered China's rush into AI. And of course every country is talking about AI. But what's really unique about Chinese it comes from the central government, as well as the private sectors, it's the central government level, since we're talking about sovereign funds today what's remarkable is, it came up with a top level kind of vision that by 2030 in just like 12 years from that game, China will become the world's leading AI superpower.

Winston Ma: (33:55)
Right. And then from there the different ministries come up with different kind of industry guidelines. So, for example, the NDRC come up with rules relating to AI champions setting standards for different AI industries, for example, autonomous vehicles, or the education ministry, where come up with guidelines set up, I think the plan was to have more than 100 majors on AI, at different universities, so on so forth, right. So what's really sets China apart is this common efforts and the common vision and the government resources to be put into this effort and of course the size of the market, 900 million users united by the same language, same culture and the same mobile payment means a lot of activities, internet platform every day, which left a tremendous amount of data and they organized the data on these internet platform that can be used to train AI algorithms, right. So to some extent the flexible policy for flexible regulation on data is also a helpful fact during the early years of AI

Rachel Pether: (35:32)
Yeah, and we actually have another audience question, which was kind of builds on these internet giants and China. Edsger Alonzo, it would be great to get your thoughts on the future of Tencent and Alibaba, given that they've seemed to extend their reach into asset management, media, logistics, and then also taking stakes and other companies that are quite forward looking themselves as venture capitalists investors. So how do you see this company[inaudible 00:36:01]

Winston Ma: (36:03)
So I think, to answer this question, I will start by saying if there's anything that's in agreement, by US and China governments, it's in the regulation of the Big Tech. There's not too many things that China and the US government agree in these days, but it seems like they have pretty much consensus on regulating the Big Tech. Right, so forth. So let's use anti financial for the first example. Right, for anti financial? It's the financial arm of Alibaba and of course we all know, right. As we're all in the financial market, we all know, the financial sector is always heavily regulated. And in the early years as I mentioned earlier, right, China takes more flexible approach to regulation. So in the early years, Alibaba enjoys super growth because there's very relaxed environment. But as we speak, in 2020, we start seeing more and more regulation. And more and more regulation of this sector.

Winston Ma: (37:16)
And also more and more risk alert as from the regulators. So for example, this China's central bank starts to warn about this system, systemic risk of financial lending platform, right, because you when they use internet data then they can do remote lending without the need of collateral. So this may be a maybe a risk to the financial system, according to the central bank. Right. And, of course, the central bank, plus the minister commerce in they are looking at an antitrust issue and financial and related internet system. And most recently very funny theory in IPO. Right the China's securities regulators they talk on end because, and to use the mutual funds on their own platform to sell their IPO shares, which triggered China intense review.

Winston Ma: (38:20)
So you can see these regulations are coming up. And of course in the US, you also see antitrust pressure on these internet giants going up in and also you have this to prick attention related, Big Tech regulation, right? Because enter financial entry, according to media reports, last couple days, is being watched by US as the potential target for crackdown in the US. So, I think probably the most pragmatic or practical way to view to think about the prospect of guys like Alibaba and Ant Financial and Tencent is to have a realistic prediction of their future growth. They will still have growth, because they are the momentum is just tremendous. But the regulators are taking our action so we should have more, let's say, realistic projection for their future growth.

Rachel Pether: (39:36)
Yeah, that's a great point. And we've actually had a couple of questions coming in. And we haven't even touched on this yet. And it is quite a big topic, but on the China's One Belt, One Road initiative. How do you think like, what's the long term perspective by the sovereign wealth funds, sort of efforts to benefit society such as China's and business for the One Belt, One Road, I guess, in addition to the physical infrastructure and the digital infrastructure? And we've also had a question saying how important was sovereign wealth funds be driving securitization of the now almost 800 billion and One Belt One Road loans

Winston Ma: (40:23)
Sorry, yeah securitization of 100 million projects

Rachel Pether: (40:29)
Of the loans associated with One Belt One Road.

Winston Ma: (40:35)
Interesting, yeah. Honestly, I haven't really put too much thought about this securitization thing. In general when you have a sovereign credit, you don't have to worry too much of that. But I think the potential solution of this credit issue along One Belt One Road project, a tree may come from the sovereign wealth funds of those local countries, what I mean by that is the local sovereign wealth funds can be a great partner for China capital, with respect to One Belt One Road projects in those countries. They because when they are part of the game, they bring the local credit into the mix, and they may even sort of use this credit support to engage more institutional investors in the mix, more capital markets institutional investors into the mix that may provide a better solution to the credit issue.

Winston Ma: (41:52)
And I think that going forward, we may see more Digital Belt Road, and actually the term for that as Digital Silk Road, this digital prom of one belt one road, and which means down the road we may see more nimble investments. Of course, you will still have similar infrastructure projects let's say internet connectivity infrastructures, right? Or the smartphone network or the satellite towers and so forth. But there will be more investments, let's say in the ecosystem, let's say mobile payment, right, let's say ecommerce platform so I suppose Which means they are not necessarily as capital intensive, as the traditional Belt and Road, that people relate to me because most of the time people relate Belt and Road into Toros highways and steak like a state and utility grid, a type of infrastructures, right. But in the going forward in the digital economy, that the digital economy ecosystem, in this kind of like, soft connectivity is just as important. And we may see like, a more kind of private equity type of investment as compared to the traditional infrastructure investments, Yeah.

Rachel Pether: (43:22)
Yeah, absolutely. Digital and physical infrastructure. We are over time, but I did want to just make sure I answered those audience questions, although we do still have some outstanding time. Sorry about that. But I know we've spoken about geopolitical tension and your upcoming book is actually called potential war, but I do always like to end on an optimistic note. So maybe talk a bit more about that. While we can hope for even though the title of your book is, The DigitaL War.

Winston Ma: (43:57)
Yeah, my other book is titled The Digital War, how China's tech power, shapes the future of AI blockchain and the cyberspace. I certainly think that the interconnectivity of the countries not only in the digital cyberspace, but also in a kind of real economy will still keep us working together and find the synergies. And again if we look at the IPO of Ant financial as an example certainly they have existing investors from all over the world and for the IPO. Guess who the underwriters they're the Wall Street investment banks, right. And for lots of the distribution, I can bet you that a lot will go to US institutional investors, even though they will be listed in Hong Kong and Shanghai right now, Nasdaq, partly because of the tension. But you can still see different levels of connectivities between the two countries. So I'm still positive

Rachel Pether: (44:59)
Well some people always came to collaborate when there's a commercial upside.

Winston Ma: (45:05)
Exactly, Money Matters.

Rachel Pether: (45:08)
Yeah, quite right. Well, we are we're actually not out of time. We're slightly over time, but I just wanted to thank you so much. It's been a pleasure. As always, I really appreciate you giving up your time to speak to us today.

Winston Ma: (45:21)
Yes, thank you very much, Rachel. Thanks for having me on the show talk.

Russell Read: Transformative Technologies & Infrastructure | SALT Talks #67

“The Middle East is not just a source of capital, but it can be a destination as well. And that's really in terms of big ideas, I think the transformation we're going to be seeing in this side of the world…is going to be coming onto their radar screen in a big way.”

Russell Read is Group Managing Partner for the C Change Group of investment funds, companies, and advisors, dedicated to materially transforming the production, distribution, and consumption of natural resources around the globe. In addition, Dr. Read serves as Senior Advisor to MSCI with respect to crafting solutions for the global asset owner community. Prior to C Change, he was Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of the Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation, the Gulf Investment Corporation (GIC), and the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS).

The Middle East has long been off the radar of investors, but that is changing a rapid way. The potential stems from more than just the sovereign wealth funds, but also in large part due to its geographical centrality to the emerging world. It is set to play a major role as both a source of capital and as a destination. “I look at UAE and Abu Dhabi as the financial and logistical center for an emerging region.”

Sovereign wealth funds have come a long way in the last ten years. A big shift occurred as result of the 2008 financial crisis where sovereign wealth funds provided tremendous support to the financial system and the global financial capital markets.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Dr. Russell Read.jpeg

Russell Read

Group Managing Partner

C Change Group

MODERATOR

anthony_scaramucci.jpeg

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

Rachel Pether: (00:07)
Hi everyone, and welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is Rachel Pether. I'm a senior advisor at SkyBridge Capital, a global alternative investment firm, as well as being the MC for SALT, a thought leadership forum and networking platform that encompasses business, finance, and politics. SALT Talks as a series of digital interviews with the world's foremost investors, creators and thinkers. Just as we do at our global SALT events, we aim to empower really big, important ideas and provide our audience a window into the mind of subject matter experts. Today, I'm very excited that we have a subject matter expert with us, Dr. Russell Read.

Rachel Pether: (00:49)
Russell is the group managing partner for the C Change Group of investment funds, companies and advisors dedicated to transforming the production, distribution, and consumption of natural resources around the globe. Russell also serves as a senior advisor to MSCI. Prior to C Change, Russell has been the CIO of not one but three major asset owners, the Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation, the Gulf Investment Corporation, and CalPERS. He served as chairman of the investors' committee of the president's working group on financial markets under treasury secretary Henry Paulson, and he's also been recognized by Institutional Investor as one of the world's most effective chief executives. Dr. Read has multiple degrees, and he received both his masters in economics and doctorate in political economy from Stanford University, Russell, welcome to SALT Talks.

Dr. Russel Read: (01:45)
Great to be here, Rachel.

Rachel Pether: (01:48)
Now this conversation could go in so many different directions, because I know you have experience in sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, natural resources, sustainability, but I'm going to try and focus on institutional asset owners today. Before I do that, perhaps you could just tell me a bit more about your personal background, and how you ended up back here in the Middle East.

Dr. Russel Read: (02:12)
So the Middle East is a particularly important place, but not for the reasons that many people think. Of course, when the investment community thinks of the Middle East, they oftentimes think of the sovereign wealth funds. And that's certainly part of the story, but what they don't think about is the geography and the centrality of the Middle East. And in particular, the way I look at it is UAE and Abu Dhabi as the financial and logistical center for an emerging region. And that emerging region that people don't really think about we call MEASA region, the Middle East, Africa, Southern Asia. And it's encompasses about half of the world's humanity. So this is interesting, because it's half the world's humanity, it's a disproportionate amount of its growth. It's the major consumption story for the world. And yet it's really off the radar screens for institutional investors.

Dr. Russel Read: (03:22)
So the Middle East is not just a source of capital, but it can be a destination as well. And that's really in terms of big ideas, I think the transformation we're going to be seeing in part is that this side of the world that investors have really shied away from, oftentimes for good reasons, is going to be coming onto their radar screen in a big way.

Rachel Pether: (03:48)
Although I must admit your background doesn't look like you're in the Middle East, but we know the truth. You've had the luxury of working with both an established pension fund, CalPERS and also one of the world's most respected sovereign wealth funds, the Alaska Permanent Fund. Before we go deeper and to their asset allocation, perhaps you could talk a bit about some of the key differences in approach between the two.

Dr. Russel Read: (04:15)
So sovereign funds and pension funds share some real similarities, but there are also some real key differences that people don't necessarily realize. One of them is linked to the nature of sovereign wealth funds themselves. And that is they are artifacts of national wealth, or in the US are state sovereign wealth funds, but that gives them a different status. For instance, when it comes to currencies, an agreement that was reached just a few years ago was that sovereign wealth funds would generally be treated as the same as the monetary authority of that country when it came to foreign currency conversion. So this is important. For instance, if you think of China, the way that currencies work an institutional investor has some work to do to repatriate their investments to their currency out of China. But that's not the case with a sovereign wealth fund.

Dr. Russel Read: (05:25)
So sovereign wealth fund has the currency convertibility of the monetary authority of that country. So they generally can convert currencies, for instance in a place like China, at all times and on shore. This is a very different set of circumstances. It also generally relates to the access to fixed income markets, to local fixed income markets, besides the structural feature of being a sovereign fund associated with the monetary authority, there's also a difference in the liabilities. Of course, all too often when it comes to investment funds, the investment teams think about their investments, but they don't necessarily focus on what they're investing for. This has happens all too often. But the liability difference is pretty dramatic. And with sovereign funds, they can have very, very longterm liabilities or obligations eventually to the state. Generally the sovereign wealth funds are more global in their character. They are longer term in their character. So in general, the asset liability management problem does not bite nearly as closely.

Dr. Russel Read: (06:52)
So the sovereign wealth funds have really come of age, particularly in the last 10 years. There was also a very important change I should mention that occurred before the global financial crisis versus after the global financial crisis. And in many ways, before the global financial crisis, there was a sort of a suspicion about sovereign wealth funds, and would they be good actors? Would they be positive in terms of their contribution to the international capital markets? Or would they be sort of a tool of statecraft? So there was real concern about this, particularly from the United States.

Dr. Russel Read: (07:38)
And so that was before the global financial crisis. Global financial crisis hits, and opinions changed completely. What happened in the global financial crisis is that the sovereign wealth funds were an unambiguous source of stability in the financial system and the global financial capital markets. And that was unexpected. So they went from being viewed with suspicion to being absolutely critical to the health of the global financial system. So I would say that the acceptance of sovereign wealth funds globally as sort of the investment partners of choice, that has really taken root. So for doing international partnerships, for being welcomed by host countries and by the financial community, sovereign wealth funds are now in a wonderful position. Even better, I think, than the standing of most pension funds.

Rachel Pether: (08:47)
I think that's a great point that you raise about perceptions. I know in the global financial crisis, they really came in as your most white knights, didn't they? Particularly with some of the banks, we saw that with the Middle East, we saw that with Barclays and Citi taking on a lot of Middle East money to help them through the crisis. Do you think that sovereign wealth funds are considered smart money in the world of investing? It's okay to just have capital, but do you think they're also seen as savvy investors? And maybe you could talk about that from a perception point of view as well.

Dr. Russel Read: (09:23)
Well, I think they are viewed as smart money. Now, there is a range of sovereign wealth funds, of course. The largest sovereign wealth funds have taken a very interesting role that's quite different than what exists among pension funds. Pension funds are largely allocators. They do some direct investments depending on the size and nature of the pension fund, but they're allocators first. Sovereign wealth funds, particularly the largest sovereign wealth funds, have become direct investors in a very significant way. Now that's true among the largest sovereign wealth funds, but it's very significant. They are significant direct investors, as some of the largest investment management firms are.

Dr. Russel Read: (10:13)
So that role from being what they used to be, they used to be largely allocators like the pension funds, but that has changed. The role of the sovereign fund and the largest of the pension funds to become co-investors, direct investors, changes the dynamic fundamentally with the investment management community.

Dr. Russel Read: (10:37)
And it's not just about the management of fees, it's that the sovereign wealth funds can add significant teams and they become potentially excellent partners for some strategic investments in areas like infrastructure, for instance, that require significant amounts of capital.

Rachel Pether: (10:58)
So in line with that smart money angle, and certainly one thing that we're seeing the sovereign wealth fund community has been this huge push towards partnerships, and often with other sovereign wealth funds. Where are you seeing some of the greatest innovations in that space? Because the two that I'm thinking of actually both involved the Alaska Permanent Fund. So perhaps you could talk us through an example of a transaction or a deal that you worked on there.

Dr. Russel Read: (11:25)
So one of the biggest transformations and points of enthusiasm, I think is that the shift from being an allocator to being a direct investor and co-investor has another potentiality that's really promising. And we pursued these from an Alaskan perspective. And that is that we can retain, the sovereign funds and other pensions can not just be allocators among investment managers, but they can take a more proactive role. They can have a thematic approach, where they interview and hire investment managers to conduct certain mandates.

Dr. Russel Read: (12:11)
We did this in two significant ways from Alaska. One was we partnered with other pools of capital from in the Middle East and in Europe and in Asia to form what's called capital constellation. Capital constellation is intended to take talented, promising private equity teams and give them their foundational mandates, and also take a strategic stake in their in their enterprises. So instead of... The idea is that it would catalyze and accelerate the success of those private equity investment teams. And we wanted to participate also in the strategic benefits of being an owner with that.

Dr. Russel Read: (13:08)
So we pooled our capital together. Note the difference, we weren't just being sold to. We engaged the investment management community as a collection of funds, that we were not going to manage those strategic investments directly, but we were going to pool our capital together and act in a concerted way. I think historically, that was really quite different. Namely, the asset owners did not act in concert. So I think the ability for asset owners to increasingly want to work together, and not necessarily look to dis intermediate the investment management community, but to direct them into the themes, into the geographies that are of most interest to them. So that's a very different role, and we find that the investment management community has really welcomed that type of engagement.

Dr. Russel Read: (14:08)
Second thing that we did is we launched into an engagement for related to equities in the markets comprised of the MEASA country. So Middle East, Africa and Southern Asia. This was something that we were looking to take advantage of in terms of the fast growth in these economies. So again, we were leading sort of the charge about inclusion, which countries could be investible, which stocks could be investible within those markets. And it was a way that we saw of capturing the high growth of those countries. You know, we have an interesting challenge, which is that global growth and this is abstracting from the current COVID crisis, but absent that in general, worldwide growth has been reasonably good. But the interesting part is that the growth is shifting, and the growth is shifting from sort of the OECD markets to, particularly to the MEASA region. So there's this question, if growth is shifting to these other parts of the world, how do we capture those returns? Because if you don't make the adaptation, you face the prospect of considerably lower long-term returns in your established markets.

Rachel Pether: (15:48)
There's so many parts to what you just said that I'd like to pick up on. So the first piece that you raised, the capital constellation, and you spoke about being an active investor, this obviously leads into ESG because you can have more of a say in the companies that you're investing in. How do you see that playing out in the asset owner community? Because I know CalPERS, for example, has been very proactive on this front. Is this something that you've seen a shift towards more, more of this activism?

Dr. Russel Read: (16:24)
It is. And I think the ESG lens is one of the most important changes, really over a very recent period, and that recent periods over the past, say 24 months. And I want to contrast with a difference that I saw. There was a nascent ESG investment effort prior to the global financial crisis in '08, '09. And what happened there is that the global financial crisis acted to defer interest in ESG investing. There was a kind of a view that the house is on fire in institutional plans, and we have other fish to fry. So ESG considerations will come later.

Dr. Russel Read: (17:22)
Now what we've had, including with the COVID crisis, is the opposite reaction. It is not that the initiatives related to environmental, social, and governance investing have diminished, they've actually increased in importance. So it's been a fundamentally different response. And we see this as a real opportunity. And it's an opportunity that is also aligned with a challenge. And that challenge is related to the utilization of natural resources. And it's related to some real environmental challenges. Of course, we hear about global warming. That is not the only challenge that is out there. The global plastics problem looms as a very large problem as well. Chronic shortages of water. And from an investment standpoint, this creates an opportunity. In fact, without galvanizing capital into attractive investment opportunities, those ESG problems will not be solved.

Rachel Pether: (18:31)
And Russell, who was leading that charge pre-financial crisis on the ESG front? Was that being driven from a regulatory perspective, or was it being spearheaded by the sovereign funds themselves?

Dr. Russel Read: (18:43)
I think pensions and sovereigns together have both played a disproportionately important role. The rise of ESG investing has been even relatively recent in terms of being done at scale. But the first manifestation of this really at scale is with existing publicly traded equities. So the idea that has appealed to many funds is, for instance, having perhaps a portfolio of stocks, a large portfolio of stocks that has the same risk and return factors as a market cap weighted index, except with a lower carbon footprint. That's sort of an example. If you wanted to have the essential performance of market cap weighted indexes, but wanted to have less a footprint, then you could manifest that in your stock portfolio. I think the bigger challenge is, and what will ultimately be more important, will be the private markets.

Dr. Russel Read: (19:52)
The private markets is where institutional investors can actually lead to direct transformation in the global consumption story, in the global natural resources story, and in the global environmental story. So that is looming as a very big opportunity, and it's one in which the emerging markets, particularly the MEASA region, loom disproportionately large. MEASA region accounts for almost a hundred percent of the prospective population growth of the planet over the course of the coming decades. So 60% of that would be in Africa. So along with that population growth is the consumption growth story. So we have a challenge, because we have a region that is going to account for a disproportionate amount of some of the most compelling potential investment themes. And it's sort of off the radar screen of our traditional investment community.

Rachel Pether: (21:03)
I'd love to pick up more on some of the points that you talk about with regards to the growth and consumption story. And you also spoke about projects being investible. So if you just hone in on the G part of that ESG equation and the governance, how do you approach the lack of transparency or the perceived lack of transparency in some of these emerging markets, where it can be difficult to access data in some cases?

Dr. Russel Read: (21:33)
So this is a big issue but it's an issue which the solving of it becomes part of the attractiveness of the market. So what do you have in the emerging markets in general? Governance is a challenge, but some of the most promising companies in the world actually are born out of the emerging markets. We think of Saudi Aramco as an example in which governance can actually be quite good on a corporate level. But what we see is the important role of the public markets. So the public markets themselves instill a discipline and transparency. If you're going to be publicly traded, in order to be credible with global investors, you have to be transparent. You have to be auditable. And so the inclusion of enterprises in the global capital markets is inherently a disciplining tool. So we've seen a dramatic improvement in governance as the countries and as the companies become part of the capital markets.

Dr. Russel Read: (23:02)
We also see the importance of transitions from private market investments to public market investments. Why are public market investments interesting? In part also because they provide a path to liquidity. So if you're investing in a place like Africa in the private markets, which can be very promising, we need to be able to think of an exit or find an exit path. And this is even more important in the emerging markets than it is in the OECD, where you also have to think about what your exit is going to be when it comes to the private markets. But unlike the OECD, in the emerging markets, you cannot necessarily count on a strategic exit. You have to be able to see a path in general toward becoming publicly traded. So there are some very important features here.

Dr. Russel Read: (24:00)
There was a choice that Aramco had between listing in London, listing in New York, and they ended up listing in Saudi Arabia. And this was an important choice, because it also signaled something very fundamentally different, that it wasn't that you had the list in a major market to be credible. You can actually list in your local market, and that that would be helpful for the development of your local and regional economies. So I think that that choice of Saudi Aramco, that list in Saudi Arabia was a particularly important signal to the emerging markets in general.

Rachel Pether: (24:46)
It was almost like saying, "Yes, we are good enough," in some ways, wasn't it? Like, "Yes, we are just as good as a New York Stock Exchange or a London Stock Exchange."

Dr. Russel Read: (24:56)
If they chose a different path, if they had listed in London or New York first, it would have given a very different signal, not just to Saudi Arabia, but across the emerging markets, that to emerging companies, if that you had to list, you would have... It would have sent a signal that if you want to be taken seriously as an investment to the global capital markets, you have to list in London or New York or Hong Kong. So I believe that that was a pivotal decision, not just for Aramco, but for the emerging markets.

Rachel Pether: (25:32)
And you talk about just picking up a little bit more on the investible side of the equation, we've discussed the transparency piece, but with regards to the MEASA region, and you're talking about these large asset owners that need to deploy multi-millions of dollars, are there actually projects of scale for them in the private markets? And particularly ones that actually incorporate all of these ESG factors?

Dr. Russel Read: (25:58)
So this is one of the important challenges. From a big picture perspective, is there the need for capital in places like Africa? And of course the answer is yes. However, and the however is an important thing, the number and scale of bankable projects is limited. Does Africa need a trillion dollars in infrastructure investment? Sure it does. Are there a trillion dollars of investible bankable projects? Not in the near term. So how do we bridge this gap? How do we create, how do we help with establishing a pathway toward bankable projects? And here there are some important lessons about what are sort of the key needs and opportunities. And we're seeing some of the answers with, for instance, the digital economy, that Africa is proving to be an excellent source of growth for the digital economy.

Dr. Russel Read: (27:08)
So if you go to a place like Kenya, it's surprising how ubiquitous are smartphones and how advanced the applications are, in many ways have skipped traditional infrastructure development. Kenya is a middle income country by global standards. It is not a poor country by world bank standards anymore. And you can of see a different development path. I think that the infrastructure needs associated with energy and communications are leading the path toward bankable projects. And those are proving to be pretty straightforward from a governance perspective as well. So I think in addition to that, logistics, the African logistics problem looms as a very, very interesting opportunity. Along with that will be the role of distributed energy. Africa will not have an established grid system such as we have in North America and in Europe, they won't want to do it. Given how vast the continent is, it is going to require a distributed energy system. And that's a pretty exciting opportunity as well for new technology.

Dr. Russel Read: (28:29)
So what we have is we have many great technologies being born out of places like Silicon Valley and MIT and in Europe and Australia, but some of the best applications and scalability of these technologies won't be in places like the United States, it'll be in places like the MEASA region. India is kind of a great case in point. What's the the incremental energy need in India? It's a lot greater than any place in Europe or North America.

Rachel Pether: (29:04)
Yeah, that's a great point, all technology has to solve a need or a gap, and I guess the need or the gap is typically much larger when you look at these emerging markets. You can make so much more of an impact with such a small change in the lifestyle or the technology.

Dr. Russel Read: (29:27)
And I think what it leads to also is that those sorts of investments, many of the infrastructure investments in North America or in Europe, can be commoditized in a that it limits or puts a ceiling on what the potential returns are. That is different than in a high growth region like the MEASA region. So commoditized returns can convey a low degree of risk, but also a low degree of potential return. And I think the growth prospects of capturing infrastructure opportunities in the emerging markets, particularly in the MEASA region, are one of the great things we're going to be seeing.

Rachel Pether: (30:16)
Fantastic. Thanks, Russell. And we've had a number of questions coming in from the audience, and broadly you can group these into the MEASA region and ESG. So I'll just start with one of the ESG questions. First from the Tesco pension fund, he asked to what extent do we all have the same dreams and objectives around ESG, but because of inconsistent approaches, we're not pulling in the same direction?

Dr. Russel Read: (30:43)
Well, it's a perfectly good insight. What we're absolutely seeing is that institutional investors have become much more sensitized to ESG concerns, but they have very different conceptions of what that means, and it can be vastly different. Now, that being said, there are a few big themes that are reasonably consistent among many of those investors. Clearly climate change is one of the big themes. So that is one where there's a critical mass of institutional investors that can pursue not only a configuration of public market stock portfolio investments, but also private market investments. Some of the other themes that are emerging, and they don't have to... They can make a big difference without having to scoop up the majority of investors. And I think for instance, take a look at smart cities and consumption related opportunities in Africa, how Africa now accounts for about a trillion dollars in consumer purchases. A trillion dollar consumer sector is actually meaningful. It's one of the great opportunities. And that is where a critical mass of investors doesn't have to be the majority of investors.

Dr. Russel Read: (32:27)
So I think that there will be for investors, institutional investors that can identify and develop the bankable opportunities in these high growth regions, that is going to be the antidote to potentially slower growth in the OECD.

Rachel Pether: (32:44)
That's actually a really great segue into another question that's come in on China's role in the MEASA region. Obviously, China is moving through with the One Belt One Road and the new Silk Road. This will lead to indebtedness of many countries in the MEASA region. How are you seeing that playing out, particularly because many of the investments are on the infrastructure front? Maybe you could give your views on the One Belt One Road initiative.

Dr. Russel Read: (33:15)
Well, my view is that overall, this is a positive. It's not without its issues, as you point out, there is a level of indebtedness with a number of the African countries, which has led a number of those countries to become cautious. But I view it in a completely healthy way. Is Africa in general better off because of the commitments from China? Unambiguously, yes, it is. If they did not have those investment commitments from China, the economic growth prospects of the continent would not be the same as they are today. And it's probably reached a pretty healthy state, namely, African countries are now being much more judicious about the types of capital and conditions under which they accept investment. So they need investment, want investment, and China has been unambiguously helpful, but they are no longer simply accepting investments with lots of strings attached without doing their own due diligence. So I think it's actually reached a very healthy state. And so this is a pretty exciting part of the story, but China has been an important piece in this whole puzzle.

Rachel Pether: (34:44)
Is China included in your MEASA strategy, or is that, that's outward you're looking at more of the high growth, younger demographic countries in the region?

Dr. Russel Read: (34:55)
When we look at the MEASA region as an investible geography, we think of it as everything but China and the Belt and Road initiative. And in many ways, it's what people historically have thought about related to the emerging markets. China is no longer a high population growth country. It's likely to be declining in population. Interestingly enough, today China, India, and Africa have the same population. They each have 1.4 billion people. This is a very interesting crossroads. However, the future of those three geographies, China, India, and Africa is going to be quite different. China will have a declining population, whereas India will be increasing to a projected 1.75 billion at its peak. Africa is expected to have a population by the end of the century of 4.3 billion people. So this is a very different trajectory from having the same population base as today.

Dr. Russel Read: (36:12)
And so some of the things that we like to think about with the emerging markets are high population growth, are high economic growth, high consumption growth. Growth is what we like to think about related to the emerging markets. And that's not necessarily what we think about with China. We think about that with the MEASA region.

Rachel Pether: (36:33)
We actually had a guest on SALT Talks last week from the Hong Kong Monetary Association. He made the comment that China will grow old before it becomes rich. So I guess that plays into your growth story.

Rachel Pether: (36:46)
And we have one final question to finish on. You speak very passionately about collaboration and this partnership approach. And when you're looking at some of the infrastructure needs in Africa, many of them are actually Pan-Africa. So if you're particularly looking at physical infrastructure like roads and train tracks and things like that, what would be your advice to the African nations in terms of collaborating with each other on these projects? What would be some of your, I guess, key rationales for collaborating together?

Dr. Russel Read: (37:31)
So I think you're exactly right that the collaboration among African economies is likely to be particularly important. And it's not just trade zones, it's logistics. When I think of some of the great challenges in Africa to creating bankable, investible projects, oftentimes they fall short because of logistics. You're going to have countries with high populations with something on the order of a single major road. And so how is the logistics problem going to be solved? And then part the logistics problem is going to be linked to energy and the digital economy. And I think that's going to be an interesting thing, that the logistics problem in Africa is likely to be solved different than how it was solved in North America and in Europe. So I think the digital economy is shaping up to be an important force in actually helping to solve logistics issues. It doesn't mean you won't still need more traditional roads and other sorts of things, but the optimization of the logistics, I think, is something that crosses borders and requires cooperation among the countries.

Dr. Russel Read: (38:55)
And there's a big benefit to it. You can see it particularly in sectors such as agriculture, where throughout much of the Sub-Sahara, 30 to 50% of crops rot in the fields. That is an informational problem along with a logistics problem, and both can be solved in part through better technology.

Rachel Pether: (39:18)
Fabulous. Well, thanks, Russell. I mean, it's been a pleasure speaking to you as always, really appreciate you giving your time and covering so many topics. I thank you so much for joining us today.

Dr. Russel Read: (39:29)
Thank you, Rachel.

William Cohan: Author "Why Wall Street Matters" | SALT Talks #59

“President Trump has introduced a tremendous amount of risk into our capital markets and economy.“

William D. Cohan, a former senior Wall Street M&A investment banker at Lazard Frères & Co., Merrill Lynch and JPMorganChase, is the New York Times bestselling author of three non-fiction narratives about Wall Street. He is a special correspondent at Vanity Fair and is hard at work on his new book about the rise and fall of GE. Bill led an unforgettable interview at SALT Las Vegas with Magic Johnson in 2014.

“People love to bask Wall Street,” frequently without fully recognizing what it is Wall Street does and how it keeps the economy going as we know it. Without Wall Street providing capital to businesses around the world, opportunities to create new companies and industries wouldn’t be possible. On the flip side, more needs to be done to support companies like mom-and-pop shops that cannot gain access to this capital, especially during economically distressing times.

Turning to the 2020 election, the relationship has soured between Wall Street and President Trump, who is now viewed as “extremely detrimental at this point.” Follow the money: Vice President Biden has significantly outpaced President Trump in fundraising from Wall Street.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

William D. Cohan.jpeg

William Cohan

Special Correspondent

Vanity Fair

MODERATOR

anthony_scaramucci.jpeg

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie: (00:08)
Hello, everyone. Welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is John Darsie. I'm the managing director of SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum at the intersection of finance, technology and public policy. And today's guest, marries the intersection of those three pillars more effectively than any author maybe out there in journalism today. SALT Talks is a digital interview series that we started during this work from home period. And that we're going to continue even after we hopefully all return to our offices here before long. And it's an interview series with the world's foremost investors, creators and thinkers. And what we're really trying to do with SALT Talks is replicate the experience that we provide at our global conference series, the SALT Conference. And that's to empower what we think are big, important ideas that are shaping the future, as well as provide our audience a window into the mind of subject matter experts.

John Darsie: (00:58)
And we're very excited today to welcome Bill Cohan to SALT Talks. Bill is a former senior Wall Street M&A investment banker of 17 years, where he was at Lazard, Merrill Lynch and JP Morgan Chase. But today he's has long since transitioned into the world of journalism. He's a New York Times bestselling author of three nonfiction books about Wall Street. His newest book Four Friends, talks about what happened to four friends from his high school. And it was published in July of 2019. Bill is a special correspondent at Vanity Fair, but he also writes for ProPublica, the Financial Times, the New York Times, Bloomberg Businessweek, the Atlantic, the Nation, Fortune and Politico. He previously wrote a biweekly opinion column for the New York Times and an opinion column for Bloomberg View, as well as for the DealBook section of the New York times. He also regularly appears in financial television media, including CNN, MSNBC and BBC TV.

John Darsie: (01:56)
He's also appeared three times as a guest on the Daily Show with Jon Stewart, the NewsHour, the Charlie Rose show, the Travis Smiley show and CBS This Morning, as well as numerous times on NPR, BBC and Bloomberg radio programs. He's a graduate of Phillips Academy, Duke university, Columbia University School of Journalism and the Columbia University School of Business. A reminder if you have any questions for Bill during today's SALT Talk, please enter them in the Q&A box at the bottom of your video screen in your Zoom window. And with that I'll turn it over to Anthony Scaramucci, who is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, a global alternative investment firm. As well as the chairman of SALT, to conduct today's interview.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:37)
Bill, great to have you on. John, thank you. I would also point people to Bill's article over the weekend in Barron's. Which I thought was a brilliant article on Bill Ackman. And Bill, I don't know if you remember this, way to segue in the question. Do you remember that Magic Johnson interview that you did at the SALT Conference?

Bill Cohan: (02:58)
Anthony, I'll never forget that. I... Go ahead.

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:01)
Before I go into your background, tell us why you'll never forget. I'll never forget that either, but you were on stage, Magic Johnson, 2,300 people live in the ballroom at the Bellagio. Why would you never forget that Bill?

Bill Cohan: (03:15)
First of all, Magic Johnson, as Anthony knew and as all of us surmised, is like one of the most charismatic people I've ever met. Between Magic Johnson and Barack Obama, I'm not really sure which one was more charismatic. But about halfway into the interview, it's me and Magic up on the stage. And as Anthony said, there's 2,300 people in the audience having lunch. And all of a sudden, Magic Johnson says, "Bill, this is great. You're asking me these questions, but do you mind if I just sort of change this up a little bit. I want to go down into the audience and just start talking and start being with the people and being with everybody." And so he just got up off the stage, went down into the audience. I asked him a few more questions, but then he was literally off to the races talking about what Magic Johnson had done here and there in basketball and business. It was incredible moment. I've never seen 2,300 banker hedge fund types, totally captivated by another human being for more than an hour.

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:19)
There was a woman Bill, who asked him a question. It was a very difficult question. He gave the answer. You could tell she was a little disappointed. You remember what Magic Johnson did in that moment?

Bill Cohan: (04:32)
I hope he hugged her. I don't know.

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:33)
Yeah. That's what he did. He crossed the entire ballroom to go over to her and said, "I know you're feeling bad about what I said, let me give you a hug." I don't know if we're allowed to do that anymore, but he gave her a hug.

Bill Cohan: (04:43)
Probably not. No.

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:43)
Yeah. He gave her a hug to a standing ovation. But anyway, that's one of my fondest memories of the many different people that you've interviewed at SALT for us, including Michael Lewis and others. But let's go back a little bit. Tell us something about your career as an M&A banker before becoming a journalist. What attracted you to M&A Bill? And then why did you leave to become a journalist?

Bill Cohan: (05:08)
Oh well. First of all Anthony, you have to know that before I, because in the bio that John described which is of course accurate. I had been a journalist and I went to Columbia journalism school and left there and was a journalist on a daily paper in Raleigh, North Carolina, covering public schools for two years. Which was of course ironic, because I'd never been to a public school in my life. But I did do that for two years and then I went back to business school. And I kept wanting to go to business, I kept thinking if I went to business school, I could get a job with The Wall Street Journal. And I kept trying and trying to get a job at The Wall Street Journal and they never would hire me. And even to this day, they've never published anything I've written in my long bio that John was reading, there's no mention of The Wall Street Journal. I've never been able to appear in their pages.

Anthony Scaramucci: (06:03)
I don't want to interrupt you, but they've written four negative stories about SkyBridge since COVID-19 started. So maybe we could do a swap. Right? They don't like you Bill, but trust me, they don't like us either. But God, I keep going.

Bill Cohan: (06:14)
And I think they've written six negative reviews of all of my books. So I'm right up there with you, Anthony. So I said, "Either I'm going to go to The Wall Street Journal or I'm going to go to Wall Street." I went instead to Wall Street I think when I graduated from Columbia in May of 1987. All you had to do was breathe to get a job on Wall Street. And so I put the mirror up to my face I was still breathing, and off I went. And at the time, there were no, there were very few hedge funds, there was very few private equity firms. If you wanted to sort of have the most sort of intellectual content on Wall Street, the place to be, I always thought was an M&A banker. And so whereas I, first of all, I couldn't get a job doing that initially. I started my career at GE capital actually, financing leverage buyouts of all things. I had no idea what I was doing, of course.

Bill Cohan: (07:13)
And then two years after that I got to Lazard, which was a place for some reason I always wanted to work. Because it was so mysterious and quirky and kind of clastic and private and French, all those things that I liked. And that's when I started learning how to be an M&A banker, working for the Felix Rohatyns of the world. And it was an incredible experience. Obviously, I wrote my first book about Lazard. And just kept doing that as long as I could, Anthony. And that gig lasted 17 years between Lazard, Merrill Lynch and JP Morgan Chase. And then like any good 44-year-old Wall Street guy, I got zoxed. And after getting zoxed at JP Morgan Chase by some of my favorite people, I decided that one thing that I could still do and be productive was to go back to journalism.

Anthony Scaramucci: (08:14)
So how did the banker career, did it helped you with the journalism, hurt you or? How did that-

Bill Cohan: (08:22)
Well-

Anthony Scaramucci: (08:22)
Feather into the new-

Bill Cohan: (08:23)
It was incredibly-

Anthony Scaramucci: (08:24)
[crosstalk 00:08:24]?

Bill Cohan: (08:24)
Incredibly helpful to me. Obviously, because I was a subject matter expert. Say what you will, 17 years, I did understand what M&A was all about. I understood investment banking, I understood how banks worked. And I didn't just leave Wall Street and suddenly become a journalist again. Actually I thought, well, I will try to write a book about Lazard. And I wrote a proposal, I got an agent, I sold the book. I wrote the book. I had total beginners luck. It was not only a New York Times Best Seller, but it was named the best business book of the year by the FT and Goldman Sachs. And I'll never forget going to London to receive that award. And by the way, I went to London with my wife and the ceremony was at this beautiful library in London. And none of us, none of the five finalists knew who had won. And I was up against Nassim Taleb, who wrote Black Swan. And Alan Greenspan, for his book on being Fed chairman.

Bill Cohan: (09:40)
And I'd heard the story that somehow the word got out that Alan Greenspan had found out as he was crossing the Atlantic in a private jet, that he didn't get it. And they turned the jet around and back he went, he did not come to the ceremony. But I had no idea. I was like in the Oscar ceremony, you're way in the back Anthony, because no one expects you to win. I was way in the back, it took me 10 minutes to get up to the front. And who's standing there, but Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs giving me my check for winning. And it was an incredible moment. And as a result of that, it was total beginners luck. Then I started, then Graydon Carter called me and said, "Would you write for Vanity Fair? Would you write for the New York Times? Would you write for the FT?" And sort of, I was off to the races.

Bill Cohan: (10:28)
So to answer your question, had I not been a banker, I could never have written that book about Lazard. Even though I never thought I would be writing a book about Lazard when I was working there, I didn't take a single note or anything about that experience. I had to recreate it all from talking to everybody. But having been a banker, it sort of paved the way for my first three books about Wall Street.

Anthony Scaramucci: (10:51)
And yeah. I want to talk about the Bear Stearns book a little later. But I want to ask you about the recent book, Why Wall Street Matters? Because it's an interesting time for Wall Street. Once again, the economy's in the [inaudible 00:11:07] room, the stock market is rallying. Although it's off today, it's really been rallying since the COVID crisis bottom, March 23rd. Why does Wall Street matter? Why is there such a pull, a gravitational force towards Wall Street, the stock market, et cetera, Bill?

Bill Cohan: (11:25)
Well, when I wrote that book and it came out in February of 2017, when the last thing anybody wanted to focus on was why Wall Street mattered. People were so overwhelmed with the fact that our friend Donald Trump had become president. I had really decided I wanted to write that book because in the years leading up to that, there'd been so much Wall Street bashing. And people were using it as a political football without really understanding all the good things that Wall Street does and can do and does every day. So as you know Anthony, people love to bash Wall Street. It's an easy target. And so they love to bash it and use it as a political football. The Elizabeth Warren's of the world, it's like sport for them. Without really and fully recognizing or being forthright about their knowledge about what Wall Street does that keeps our economy going, which of course is provide capital 24 hours a day, seven days a week to companies all around the world that need it and can afford to pay for it.

Bill Cohan: (12:45)
And so whether it's M&A advice, whether it's capital raising, whether it's incredibly important trading and liquidity and in stocks and bonds, what Wall Street does is obviously invaluable. We can't even imagine what our world would it be like, if there were no Wall Street. The things that we completely take for granted. So I was careful to point out the things that Wall Street does wrong and needed to be fixed. None of which of course, have happened. But I also wanted to make sure that people understood what Wall Street did right and does right. And that's why I wrote that book. Of course, nobody cared. But occasionally, people read it. It's a thin book. It's a primer. It's not like my usual doorstop books. So it's a little easier to read and I think makes an important point about Wall Street.

Anthony Scaramucci: (13:34)
Well, you say it in the book which I think is important for people on this Zoom call. You talk about it being the central artery system for capitalism. And you talk about the nexus between Wall Street and Main Street. And ultimately just to remind people, if we discover a technology like for hacking, it's controversial from an environmental perspective. But lo and behold, without Wall Street and liquid capital markets sending money to that innovation, you don't create that industry, you don't create those jobs. And so that would be the same thing for Zoom for that matter or Facebook or Google. And so it's a very compelling case for Wall Street. I recommend the book to people and I recommend all your books. Price of Silence by the way, was an unbelievable book about the lacrosse scandal at Duke.

Anthony Scaramucci: (14:24)
A little bit off genre for you, but that was a terrific book that people liked reading about factual situation and how it got misinterpreted and politicized. Which is apropos frankly, what's going on today in a lot of ways. It was a precursor Bill. Your book was a precursor for what's going on now in the political world in 2020. But back to Wall Street, US is the financial capital of the world. I think we could both stipulate that. It still seems to be.

Bill Cohan: (14:55)
Absolutely.

Anthony Scaramucci: (14:55)
How has that benefited the US economy in your words?

Bill Cohan: (15:00)
Well, I think it's benefited those companies that can access the capital markets, Anthony. And unfortunately, that's not most companies. That's not most of the working American population who works for those companies. The biggest, most profitable, international and large domestic companies that can access the capital markets, it's a huge competitive advantage. They get capital and especially nowadays, extremely low cost. They get access to equity debt. They can finance their business, they can build new businesses. They can take risks with that capital. They can hire more people, they can build new plant and equipment. It's why in many ways our economy is the most dynamic, the most innovative economy in the world. Why any number of the largest corporations in the world are in America.

Bill Cohan: (16:06)
Why the world's entrepreneurs beat a path to our doors. Because through thick and through thin when people count out, Wall Street, it's really at the end of the day the Wall Street banks, which are the biggest and most powerful in the world. It's really frankly, a lot of politicians would disagree, but it's really a national treasure. It's an unbelievable machine that has been built here, that is clearly the envy of the world. And it benefits people who can make tremendous in many cases too much wealth, but nevertheless it's a free market system. Most of the time, not always. And you can benefit tremendously by creating a great idea and bring it to this country. Or starting it in this country and getting it financed. Companies that can access the capital markets, which is mom and pops and lots and hundreds of thousands of companies where hundreds of millions of people work. That's tough. That's a lot tougher. And that's why you see so many of these businesses really having a tough time right now.

Anthony Scaramucci: (17:22)
It's an interesting restatement of where things are. And sometimes politicians don't understand your life experience, my life experience on Wall Street. We understand that nexus between Main Street, but some politicians probably make it too much of a scapegoat. Let's talk about judgment which I've had my series of flawed judgments in my life. So let's talk about the 2016 challenge for some of our Wall Street friends. Many of them despite president Trump's personal flaws, held their nose proverbially and voted for him because they thought he was a guardian of the free market system. What do you think happens this time in 2020? Do you think they still see it that way? Or do you think that the president's actions over the last three and a half years have changed that?

Bill Cohan: (18:12)
No. I think the bloom is completely off the rose now. I don't... I'm sure they're out there Anthony, just like there are a lot of people who will probably vote for Trump, don't want to tell anybody they're voting for Trump. So there are probably people like that on Wall Street. But I would say, with the exception of somebody like our favorite Ken Langone, most people on Wall Street have completely lost the thread of Trump and view him as extremely detrimental at this point to... If he were a CEO of a company with a board of directors like most Wall Street guys can relate to, he would have been fired long ago. And so I think Wall Street would absolutely wants to fire this guy.

Anthony Scaramucci: (19:09)
And by the way, I will point out that the fundraising on Wall Street for Donald Trump way down, and he's been outpaced by Vice President Biden. So what you're saying, if you follow Wall Street and the money action Bill, speaks louder than words. And so there's evidence of that. So do you think Joe Biden is better for the economy? Is that what the Wall Streeters are thinking? Or what do you think's going on there?

Bill Cohan: (19:41)
Yes, I think. But again, everything's relative. If Trump were a different kind of leader and manager and hadn't exploded the national debt and hadn't exploded the annual budget deficits, or hadn't artificially kept interest rates, bullied the Fed into artificially keeping interest rates near zero and making our economy incredibly risky. Yes. They've made a lot of money during this period because of everybody who can refinance and finance and go public. All of that, yes. It's been true. But they've, Trump has introduced just a tremendous amount of risk into our capital markets and our economy, just like he did in his own businesses when he ran casinos and real estate. So I think that they think somebody like Biden, who's basically a centrist who cares about things like budget deficits, and trying to reduce the national debt and actually putting in an infrastructure proposal that will make sense and trying to resolve the COVID epidemic and unemployment, doing all the things that a normal human being who cared about people does.

Bill Cohan: (21:09)
I think that's why they think... And even if they have to pay more in taxes or even if the corporate tax rate goes up, I think the time has come to... Even on Wall Street, they recognize that Trump is completely out of control and anything is going to be better than Trump right now.

Anthony Scaramucci: (21:30)
Well, we're going to open it up to, we've got tons of audience participation, but we're going to open it up in a second. But I want to ask you about your 2008 crisis book House of Cards, which the subtitle was A Tale of Hubris and Wretched Excess on Wall street. And this was about Bear Stearns. So this was, correct me about the chronology of the books. Lazard was first.

Bill Cohan: (21:50)
Right.

Anthony Scaramucci: (21:50)
Bear Stearns was second. In your trilogy on investment banks, Goldman was third.

Bill Cohan: (21:55)
Correct.

Anthony Scaramucci: (21:56)
Okay. So the, and you probably don't remember how we met. But-

Bill Cohan: (22:00)
Oh, I do.

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:01)
Okay. How did we meet? Do you remember?

Bill Cohan: (22:03)
Well, I do remember because you wrote your book about working at Goldman Sachs.

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:09)
Right.

Bill Cohan: (22:10)
And it came out. And I was coming to the end of writing my book about Goldman Sachs. And you told this incredible story in your book that I tell all the time Anthony.

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:23)
All right.

Bill Cohan: (22:23)
About how at Goldman, it was the Friday before Memorial Day weekend.

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:28)
Yup.

Bill Cohan: (22:28)
And all you new associates were gathered together in a conference room at Goldman Sachs, and just told to wait until you got your next orders. And-

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:37)
Nothing.

Bill Cohan: (22:37)
The hours went by, nothing happened. And four of the associates said-

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:44)
Three.

Bill Cohan: (22:44)
The hell with-

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:44)
Three.

Bill Cohan: (22:45)
Three of them said, "The hell with this. I'm out of here. It's the Friday before Memorial Day weekend, I'm not going to the Hamptons." And the rest of you stuck around until 10:00 PM at night. The partner comes in and says, "All right everybody's signed. Here's a yellow piece of paper, sign your name on it and then you can go." And he took it and he saw that the three of them weren't there. And he said that they were fired immediately. And the message was, "This is a client service business. If the client wants you to be around until 10 o'clock on Friday night before Memorial Day weekend, you do it. And if you can't do that, you don't belong here."

Anthony Scaramucci: (23:20)
Yeah.

Bill Cohan: (23:20)
So I read that, I loved that. I wanted to use that, and I called you up and said-

Anthony Scaramucci: (23:25)
Yeah.

Bill Cohan: (23:25)
"Can I do that?"

Anthony Scaramucci: (23:26)
And he, the gentleman that did that, we won't give out his name. Because he sometimes doesn't like that story now. He loved that story 25 years ago, but he's got a little older and a little bit more gentler, but he was the former mayor of Eagles Mere, Pennsylvania, God bless them. And a terrific guy, still going strong. But he taught me a lot of lessons back then. And that was a hard core moment for a lot of people. And that was a hardcore thing to do or a little bit more sensitive in these workplaces today than back then. But that's how we met. That's a good memory. But I was reading your House of Cards book at the time, which I thought was a sensational book.

Bill Cohan: (24:04)
Thank you.

Anthony Scaramucci: (24:05)
And I would rank your books I'm not going to do it on a SALT Talk, but I'll tell you about it personally, but that was up there. All your books are great, but I'll just say it. That book and Price of Silence, I thought were sensationally gripping because you really got into the personalities of people and what human nature is like. The other books were very good, but they were a little bit less of that for me. I thought that this book was unbelievable. The story that you told about Jimmy Kane and his urinary tract infection. I'm just going to go right there, was one of the more legendary stories. So what was going on at Bear Stearns in 2008 that led to their demise Bill? Because it's a cautionary tale for young people that are listening in.

Bill Cohan: (24:58)
Well, I think what has happened throughout the history of Wall Street and of course, Bear Stearns got caught up in it as did Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers. And by the way, banks throughout the history of our country. And that is this pension for borrowing short-term money and lending it long-term. Borrowing short and lending long as it's said in the vernacular. And basically what Bear Stearns did, what Merrill did, what Lehman did, what banks through time immemorial do. What banking is all about is that they borrow in the short-term markets, and how does like JP Morgan borrow? They borrow in a lot of ways but basically they've got one and a half trillion dollars worth of customer deposits, which can be taken away any second of any day, right? You just go to your ATM machine, you pull that money out and it's gone. So they pay nothing for that. They get that raw material for free and then they lend it out for five years, seven years, 10 years, 12 years, whatever it is. For loans, they use it to make markets.

Bill Cohan: (26:14)
So Bear Stearns didn't have deposits but it borrowed over time through the course of 2017 after its two hedge funds went barely up. Basically, their capital markets options became greatly diminished and they were forced into the overnight repo market. They were forced into the short-term overnight secured lending market. And they were using as collateral for those overnight loans, the mortgage backed securities that they couldn't sell that were sticking around on their balance sheet. And we're talking billions and billions and billions of dollars that they were using as collateral. And in March of 2008, what happened was those overnight lenders, which were the fidelities of the world, the federated investors in the world, that provide that financing in that market said, "We don't like this collateral anymore. We won't take this anymore for overnight loans." And so basically Bear Stearns literally, could not finance its business. It had something like $18 billion of cash on its balance sheet, but it needed $75 billion a day to run its business.

Bill Cohan: (27:19)
Covering margin loans, whatever it was making loans, making sure everything was running and it just couldn't do that anymore. And so the classic example of borrowing short and lending long and banks do that forever. And as long as there's no run on the bank, it works. Because that's what fractional banking is all about. If there weren't fractional banking, IE meaning that you can only have a small fraction of the deposits. Actually there, you can lend out the rest. If it weren't like that banks couldn't make money, because they make money on the spread among other things. And it's fine as long as there's no run on the bank. In the 20s, 29, 30 31, there was a run on the bank from individual depositors. In 2008, Bear didn't have any individual depositors. They had some hedge fund money that they were custodians for, but basically it was an institutional run on the bank. Anybody who had more than $250,000 at Bear Stearns took their money out or thought about taking their money out because that was not insured.

Bill Cohan: (28:32)
And so they just said, "Forget it. I'm going to take my money out and ask questions later." And in some cases, these hedge fund guys took their money out and then shorted Bear Stearns. So it's a self-fulfilling prophecy, which we've never really gotten to the bottom of. But again this is in time in memoriam, this is why Anthony, banks get into trouble. They borrow short and lend long and Bear Stearns was no different, Lehman was no different, Merrill was no different, even Morgan Stanley and Goldman had this problem, although not to the same extent. And of course. they were bailed out.

Anthony Scaramucci: (29:10)
Oh, it's just, it also speaks to the self-confidence that sometimes people have at the top. It's a combination of greed and self-confidence. And then-

Bill Cohan: (29:18)
Hubris.

Anthony Scaramucci: (29:19)
Sort of a certainty that they're not, nothing's going to go wrong for them. And of course-

Bill Cohan: (29:22)
Well Bear Stearns, hadn't had a losing quarter in 85 years until the fourth quarter of 2007-

Anthony Scaramucci: (29:31)
Seven.

Bill Cohan: (29:32)
And then boom. March 2008-

Anthony Scaramucci: (29:35)
[crosstalk 00:29:35].

Bill Cohan: (29:35)
They were gone.

Anthony Scaramucci: (29:35)
It's a cautionary tale about when there's no doubt there's usually a trap door in the next room Bill. So let's turn it over to the very lovable John Darsie, who's switched up his room a little bit. He's got some audience questions.

John Darsie: (29:51)
Yeah. This is a follow-up to the question about 2008 you were a student of that time period. What about 2020? Do you think, what did we learn from 2008 that we applied before or during this crisis that allowed us to avert maybe a more long-term and painful type of depression and financial meltdown?

Bill Cohan: (30:12)
You mean what right now of we're trying to avert yeah.

John Darsie: (30:15)
Right now. Yeah.

Bill Cohan: (30:16)
It's not clear that we've averted it yet but-

John Darsie: (30:17)
The world economy is obviously under strain. The banking system is under strain, but it seems like we were a little bit more prepared from a bank balance sheet and a household balance sheet perspective coming into this crisis. And perhaps the Fed was a little bit more confident in its actions in helping us recover from the crisis. I just didn't know your observations if you've studied this time period relative to 2008.

Bill Cohan: (30:39)
Yeah. The banks are obviously much better capitalized now coming into this crisis than they were in 2007. They have a lot more tier one capital. They have more capital. Generally, there also have been severe restrictions on the kinds of assets that they can actually keep on their balance sheet whereas in 2007 it was the Wild West. Now banks talk about being in the storage business and in the moving business, banks are basically in the moving business now. Everything that they can get off their balance sheets, they do as quickly as they can to try to, they're in the fee business. And so the banks are much better capitalized, many fewer riskier assets on their balance sheets now. There are still problems. There are huge loan delinquencies. There've been huge billions and billions of loan loss reserves taken in the first half and probably three quarters of this year.

Bill Cohan: (31:46)
There's probably problems in the credit card portfolios for those banks that have them. And I'm sure there's probably problems in the mortgage portfolio, whether it's commercial mortgages or residential mortgages, they're probably a lot of problems hiding out in all of that. But generally speaking, the banks are much better shape. As far as the Fed, the Fed just went bonkers on March 23rd of this year. And then again on April 7th, just transcending anything that they had done in the years after 2008. When they are already breaking every rule that we knew about. And the Fed just has flooded the capital markets with capital they've backed up, they're buying, they've expanded their balance sheet. It was down to like three and a half trillion now it's up to seven trillion. They've just been buying every piece of paper or implying that they're going to buy every piece of paper that's ever been out there that nobody wants.

Bill Cohan: (32:50)
Which of course is once again, inflated bond prices, lowered bond yields, which I think is going to is injected a huge amount of risk into the capital markets just like it did after 2008, which was why the markets imploded in March of this year. There's linkages to all this, but I think the Fed probably says, "Look, we'll deal with that later. Right now, we've got to reopen the capital markets." And they did that in a huge way, and completely unprecedented way. And so as we talked about before with Anthony, those companies that can tap into the capital markets have been able to do that in a big way. It's benefited Wall Street tremendously in terms of fees, but those companies that can't access the capital markets are struggling immensely right now.

John Darsie: (33:44)
So we have a question about deficits and I think it's in response to a recent piece you wrote in Vanity Fair about some members of the Republican party who are more fiscal purists, have sounded the alarm about the current budget deficit for this year and our rising national debt. Why do you think the reaction hasn't been as loud to that rising deficit within the Republican Party and elsewhere, are we all becoming accidental modern monetary theorists? Or why do you think Wall Street isn't more concerned about this unprecedented deficit in 2020 and rising debt in general?

Bill Cohan: (34:20)
Well, I think there's a Maslow's needs hierarchy thing going on here. And so the national debt, which is whatever $26 trillion and rising and the budget deficits which seem like they're hitting around $4 trillion. Those are big issues, but they're sort of big amorphous issues that are probably of tertiary importance now to curbing the pandemic, making sure people are healthy, getting business back to normal, getting unemployment down, getting the recessionary pressures relieved, getting rid of Donald Trump. There are needs that just outpace that. And part of the reason for that is because there's really no consequences at the moment to $26 trillion of debt and $4 trillion deficits. Interest rates are very low, so the cost of servicing that debt is relatively low and investors all over the world, in an environment where there's a lot of negative interest rates around the world, we have positive interest rates on US government securities which are supposedly the most liquid and secure in the world. Although that probably could be changing with this fiscal irresponsibility that we're involved with.

Bill Cohan: (35:46)
But basically speaking, there's been no consequences. And I think there's a view that, as I think Anthony has said, that we're in... This is a war posture. It's really kind of no different than the deficit spending that had to occur during World War II to win a war. We're trying to win a war against this pandemic, against high unemployment, against struggling economy. We're not doing a very good job of it, but we're trying to do it. And so I think people say, "All right. Well, under these unusual circumstances, we will live with these huge budget deficits and a growing national debt." Which I remind people that when Trump was a candidate, he said he would eliminate. And of course, he's added more to it than almost any other president.

John Darsie: (36:32)
So shifting gears back to 2008 for a moment, we have an audience question about why you think there was a dearth of prosecutions, criminal prosecutions following the 2008 collapse? And what type of moral hazard that creates going forward on Wall Street?

Bill Cohan: (36:50)
Yeah. I've written a lot about this. This is extremely a disturbing topic. Part of it is Eric Holder, who was the attorney general. And before he became attorney general, sort of published a paper and a doctrine if you will, that basically urged prosecutors not to prosecute firms for their wrongdoing because of what happened with Arthur Andersen. The accounting firm, which went out of business and lots of people lost their jobs. So I think that the general sentiment with Holder as the attorney general was to try to find other solutions excide from criminal prosecution. And so what there was instead were these huge civil penalties that were agreed to from the Justice Department and these banks for all of their mistakes they made in the mortgage-backed security business, that they were all huge participants in. And I think it was just decided that slapping these firms with, or their shareholders frankly, with these large huge $10, $15 billion fines would preserve, would make the point without costing these firms to potentially... Because a criminal indictment could, like it did with other firms like Drexel and Enron and others, put them out of business.

Bill Cohan: (38:24)
They decided not to go that route. And I think that was number one and number two. When everybody is a part of a system that is creating these mortgage-backed securities and packaging up mortgages and making them into mortgage-backed securities and selling them all around the world in AAA investments. The whole system people are caught up in, it's very hard to blame it on one or two or three individuals. Even though, if they had done any investigation, if Preet Bharara and the Southern District of New York, instead of investigating insider trading at all these hedge funds, which he was rightly very proud of, he didn't spend any of his political capital investigating wrongdoing at the big Wall Street banks related to the mortgage-backed securities.

Bill Cohan: (39:17)
And there's plenty of memoranda. There's plenty of incidents where this could have been proven if people could have been prosecuted. But I think there between what Holder was saying and Preet Bharara not doing it and losing the Bear Stearns hedge fund case in the Eastern District of New York, I just don't think... And the revolving door between Wall Street and Washington, I just think there was no appetite. And it's frankly, that is the crime right there, that none of these people were prosecuted.

John Darsie: (39:48)
So we'll leave you with one last question from the audience before we let you go Bill, and it's about SPACs. So you've written recently about the SPAC craze that's taking over Wall Street. For those on the call who are unfamiliar, it's a special-purpose acquisition vehicle or a company that basically provides a company a backdoor into a public listing. We had Chamath Palihapitiya on a previous SALT Talk and he's become one of the poster boys for SPACs. He did Virgin Galactic. He recently did Opendoor. And then when he did Opendoor, he simultaneously filed for I think, four more SPACs. You see other copycats across Wall Street that are doing it. Why have SPACs become so popular? And what do you think it says about the current environment we're in from a financial markets perspective?

Bill Cohan: (40:31)
One of the points that I made in one of in the articles, it's sort of like where old investment bankers go to die now. They go to the SPAC wonderland. They take their skills as M&A guys or capital markets guys. They can't stay at their Wall Street firms anymore because they're whatever, too old or they're retired or whatever. So they convince people to give them hundreds of millions of dollars, for two years to try to find a company to buy. I don't really know what it says about the capital markets. They really, I guess, because certainly until they buy a company these things don't really do anything. So I guess it's, there's some downside protection. If they don't find a company to buy they get their money back, if they do find a company to buy and it's a decent deal like Virgin Galactic and some of these others, the stock runs up and everybody makes money. So I guess it means, it's just sort of another one of those ways that at the beginning anyway, it's now it's like $35 billion has been raised this year in SPACs.

Bill Cohan: (41:50)
At the beginning it looks like a gravy train and everybody's going to make money because nobody's really lost big on these things. It's only in retrospect when these things don't work out, when people merge with a company that does not do well and the stock goes to zero and people lose their money, that we begin to reassess these things. It's just another one of the great ways Wall Street figures out to alleviate investors from their money.

John Darsie: (42:20)
Well Bill, it was great having you on and your articles are always immediately bookmarked when they come out from my perspective. Anthony, do you have any final words for Bill before we let him go?

Anthony Scaramucci: (42:29)
Bill, I don't know if you're allowed to talk about it, but what are you working on now in terms of a book? Anything coming out that we should let everybody know about?

Bill Cohan: (42:37)
Well I've been, Anthony, working my butt off all the time, writing my new book about GE. The Rise and Fall of GE. And how the company that was once the most valuable company in the world, once worth $600 billion in August of 2000 Anthony, is now worth 10% of that today. Apple's net worth, Apple's market cap goes up and down $60 billion in a day. At one point, GE was by far the most valuable company in the world. How did it become that valuable under Jack Welch and how did it all come apart under Jeff Immelt? And so that's what I'm working on. Fortunately, I spent many hours interviewing Jack and others before he died. And so it'll be I think, back to my roots Anthony, of writing about big financial companies. And it's really the story of America in the 20th and early 21st century.

Anthony Scaramucci: (43:44)
Somehow is hubris going to get into the subtitle there, Bill? Somehow, right?

Bill Cohan: (43:50)
From your lips to God's ears, Anthony. We'll make it happen.

Anthony Scaramucci: (43:53)
All right. Well, listen, as always fantastic discussion available on Vanity Fair. You're writing for Bloomberg Businessweek. We saw you in Barron's over the weekend. And thank you so much for keeping it real, Bill.

Bill Cohan: (44:08)
Thank you, Anthony.

Anthony Scaramucci: (44:09)
Thanks again, Bill.

Badr Al Olama: What's Next for Aerospace? | SALT Talks #56

“It doesn’t matter how industrialized your country is: when it comes to Mother Nature, the impact is holistic.“

Badr Al Olama is the Executive Director of Aerospace for Mubadala Investment Company, a global investment company with a mandate to create sustainable financial returns for Abu Dhabi. He oversees key portfolio assets including Strata Manufacturing, where he served as Chief Executive Officer at the age of 32, and Nibras Al Ain Aerospace Park, a development supporting the establishment of a sustainable aerospace industry in the Emirate.

“It took an act of God, a real force majeure event, to make us all want to stay at home.” Prior to COVID-19, scientists warned that the world was past the point of no return with climate change. The pandemic showed us what was possible through a coordinated, concentrated effort to change the way we live our lives. GMIS, the Global Manufacturing and Industrialization Summit established in 2015, is now relevant as ever in its pursuit to harness the Fourth Industrial Revolution’s transformation of manufacturing to the regeneration of the global economy.

The Mohammed Bin Rashid Initiative for Global Prosperity, a GMIS initiative, is pushing its parent organization’s goals even further. TruTrade, a winner of the Global Prosperity’s Cohort I, sources markets, sets prices and pays rural small-scale farmers in Africa using mobile money. Runners up included StixFresh, a company developing technology to reduce food waste via all-natural and safe methods.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Badr Al Olama.jpeg

Badr Al Olama

Executive Director of Aerospace

Mubadala Investment Company

MODERATOR

anthony_scaramucci.jpeg

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

Rachel Pether: (00:08)
Hi, everyone. Welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is Rachel Pether. I'm a senior advisor to SkyBridge, a global alternative investment firm, as well as the MC for SALT, a global thought leadership forum and networking platform encompaning finance, technology and politics. SALT Talks is a series of digital interviews with the world's foremost thinkers, creators and investors. Just as we do at our global SALT events, we aim to empower big, important ideas and provide our audience a window into the minds of subject matter experts. We are very excited today to welcome Badr Al-Olama to SALT Talks. Badr is the head of Mubadala Aerospace, where he oversees key portfolio assets including Strata Manufacturing and Nibras Al Ain Aerospace Park. Nominated as a young global leader for the Middle East and North Africa by the World Economic Forum, Badr heads the organizing committee for the world's first Global Manufacturing and Industrialization Summit, GMIS, a joint initiative between the UAE government and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization. Badr is the chairman of Sanad Group, Sanad Aerotech, Sanad Capital, Sanad Powertech and Strata, and is a board member of the UAE Space Agency as well as a member of the UAE Ministerial Council, focused on the Fourth Industrial Revolution. If you have any questions for Badr during today's talk, please just enter them in the Q&A box at the bottom of your video screen. And with that, Badr, welcome to SALT Talks.

Badr Al Olama: (01:43)
Thank you for having me, Rachel.

Rachel Pether: (01:46)
We have a lot to discuss today. But before we get to that, I'd like you to tell me a bit more about your personal journey. I know that you started your career as a lawyer, but have you always been interested in aerospace and technology?

Badr Al Olama: (02:00)
No. I mean, I started off as a lawyer and I practiced for two years before I went to Harvard Law School. By the time, Harvard was an incredible experience. I met incredible people, listened to great professors that were sort of subject matter experts in everything that I did. Just before I graduated, I got an opportunity to actually join Mubadala in Abu Dhabi. By the time I joined, this was sort of a career shift, right? I met, at the time, with one of our senior leadership members who told me very simply, he said, "Look Badr, you're going to come here. We don't want you as a lawyer. We want you to start thinking about project development and business development and finance." So I just started from scratch, right?

Badr Al Olama: (02:42)
I did my CFA Level One. They mapped up my career pretty sort of profile, that I would start working on a project, I would run the project, and then eventually I would come back and work on another project. And if you look at sort of my career trajectory, that's exactly what happened. I worked on Strata, which is an aircraft parts component manufacturer in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. I became the CEO at age 32. I run that business for about six years before coming back and managing the portfolio for aerospace. So I didn't really pick that I wanted to do aerospace, but one thing was for sure that I would enjoy innovation, I enjoyed manufacturing, I enjoyed new things. The experience that I had between being a lawyer and joining Mubadala, actually gave me that opportunity.

Rachel Pether: (03:30)
I mean, you don't look a day over 35, so that's also impressive. I do want to speak a little bit more about Mubadala, but also focus on innovation in the aerospace and manufacturing sectors. I know that you hosted GMIS earlier this month, and you launched something called the Green Chain Initiative, which I thought was really interesting crowdsourcing platform using blockchain technologies. Can you tell me a bit more about that and maybe about the rationale behind it?

Badr Al Olama: (03:58)
Sure. Let me start off by just giving a background about what GMIS is. I mean, GMIS was established in 2015. It was established really to be a platform that can actually bridge between governments, private sector, civil society, to shape the future of manufacturing. And this is during the time that we all hear a lot about the fourth industrial revolution. Our first summit happened in Abu Dhabi in 2017. The next one happened in Russia in 2019 and the third one, which was supposed to happen in Hanover, Germany, because of COVID, we had the choice to make. Either we postpone, or we decide to go virtual, right? You can't really be preaching the power of 4IR, and not go virtual. So we decided to go virtual on this one. What I wanted to say about sort of GMIS as a platform, we didn't want to make it a sort of a talking shop. It was great that people were coming together, talking about the future of manufacturing. You listen to heads of state, you listen to CEOs. We wanted to make sure that we could leave a legacy.

Badr Al Olama: (05:00)
So in 2017, we launched the Making Prosperity Initiative, which was named after the UAE vice-president, prime minister and ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. In 2019, obviously listening to President Putin speak about nature inspired technologies that will be less resource intensive and more eco-friendly, we launched the President's Challenge, which was about crowdsourcing research papers on nature's biotechnology. And taking things on the same sort of track, that's where we came up with the Green Chain Initiative. The Green Chain Initiative is about developing green supply chains that would basically crowdsource renewable energy projects, that would power manufacturing facilities and potentially mine cryptocurrencies. So it's very inclusive, it's very sustainable. And I say inclusive because it doesn't matter if you are from a fossil rich country or a renewable energy rich country, it's about the entire world. It's about decarbonizing industry. It's about using 4IR for global good. It's about clean energy, something that's super important to our world today. And it's about social responsibility, something that both Germany and the UAE have demonstrated in action, not just by words.

Rachel Pether: (06:14)
So tell me more about the mining for cryptocurrencies. That's part of the initiative as well.

Badr Al Olama: (06:22)
I got a lot of questions about that, and a lot of people got excited about that. But think about it in simple format, right? Companies that are going to be investing in either greening their facilities or greening their products, need to be rewarded somehow. So our thought process behind it was, when we develop or crowdsource these renewable energy projects in different parts of the world, any excess energy, potentially can be used to mine cryptos. Those cryptos can eventually either upgrade infrastructure for stuff like hydrogen. They could convert fossil-based facilities to actually adopt more environmentally friendly technologies, and they could actually be used to purchase products. But in essence, I'm very optimistic about it because I really think that the Green Chain Initiative has a genuine opportunity to tackle climate change. It's disruptive, and it's transformative. It's exactly what you need in terms of actually tackling climate change, something disruptive and something transformative.

Rachel Pether: (07:20)
And I love the way it was launched. Manufacturing some of this, as you say, a sustainability summit or something like that, it just shows that the integration between the two. You actually briefly touched on the Prosperity Initiative or the Prosperity Challenge. Can you tell me a bit more about that initiative? Because I think you've announced some of the winners for that recently as well.

Badr Al Olama: (07:45)
Well, let me tell you a story. I mean, back in 2018 when we first launched our first cohort on it, one of the four challenges that we launched and basically... Let me start off. The Making Prosperity Initiative is about developing an open innovation platform, where we're trying to create a maker community that will solve problems that are related to the sustainable development goals of the United Nations. So back in 2018, two years ago, we launched our first cohort. And one of the challenges of the first cohort, was to do with sustainable cities. The challenge was specifically finding solutions that can stop or prevent the spread of an infectious disease or a pandemic. Talk about foresight, right? Fast forward to 2020 today, some of the solutions that actually came out of the submission of the 2018 challenges, are actually on the ground today. They're trying to figure out ways to map out where the spread of the disease is happening, in which community. They've come up with rapid tests. So that was all on our first cohort.

Badr Al Olama: (08:47)
The second cohort, we said, "We need to take it a step further." What we did is we launched four different challenges. One had to do with healthy and sustainable food, peace and justice, inclusive trade, and of course, climate change. So what ended up happening when we posted those four challenges based on the track record that we got on the first cohort, we got over 3,400 solutions, from almost 150 different countries. And the interesting part was, that one out of five solutions, came from the developing world. In the developing world, where you see a lot of these problems, actually a lot of the solutions exist, but you don't have the communication going on between them. What was exciting was that we worked with MIT Solve and we worked with 47 different subject matter expert judges to not just identify the four winners, and the winners were based on scalability, on impact, on feasibility, but this time, we wanted to take four disruptive runner-ups and link them up with global organizations for mentorship and guidance. And we're developing another program with the University of Cambridge. So you see that not only as, let's say, GMIS is bringing the world together and acting as a bridge and trying to communicate about the future of manufacturing, we want to leave an impact that's on the ground, that's real and that makes a considerable difference to people's lives.

Rachel Pether: (10:11)
And can you talk me through some of the examples from that? So one of the solutions that you're planning to take further through this network and the mentorship program.

Badr Al Olama: (10:22)
I mean, let me give you one of that. One of the winners was a startup called ColdHubs in Nigeria. And what ColdHubs does, it's a solar-powered cold storage solution, which stores the produce that is obviously created by the farmers in the rural world, so in pretty much in Nigeria. The concept behind it which was so interesting is that one fridge can support an entire neighborhood, without the use of electricity, just by using solar power. But the disruptive one that I'd like to talk about, is a company called Stixfresh. And this is basically a sticker that is put around produce, maybe an apple, whatever kind of fruit, and it slows down the spoilage process. So it keeps fruit fresh longer. I mean, these are kind of the disruptive things that we're... It's not something that we created, it exists. We're putting the spotlight on it so that the world knows that there are innovative ideas that can actually provide solutions to some of our biggest problems.

Rachel Pether: (11:24)
And I also want to talk a bit more about how the pandemic has impacted your role in Mubadala Aerospace too. How have you seen the activities over the past few months, sort of highlight the need for such an agenda or such an urgency?

Badr Al Olama: (11:41)
That's a very good question. Look, just before the pandemic sort of disrupted everybody's lives, we were causing so much damage to the environment that we were even being told that this damage is irreversible. We are on a crash course towards destroying the entire world. Even if the entire forces of our world came together, let's talk about all the governments agreeing and saying, "We need to put people at home to make them stop traveling by cars or by planes," it's not going to be possible, right? I said this before and I keep repeating it, it took an act of God, a real force measure type of event, to make us all want to stay at home. And what did you see out of that? Clear skies, cleaner air, even wildlife coming back.

Badr Al Olama: (12:28)
And you start thinking about the sync. At one point in time, eventually, this pandemic is going to end. And we're going to ask ourselves, what did we learn about this? And I want to say that, one thing we learned for sure, it doesn't matter how rich or poor your country is. It doesn't matter how industrialized or underdeveloped your country is. When it comes to mother nature, the impact is holistic, right, and it's very forceful and it's pretty much unpredictable. So again, I go back to the sort of my upbeat and my optimism about the Green Chain Initiative. I'm so optimistic about it because I really feel that this could be that one step forward where the youth of this generation can actually start working on the Green Chain Initiative, because they are the ones that are going to remember always that this pandemic almost stole away their future. We cannot put ourselves in the situation ever again.

Rachel Pether: (13:26)
I guess now the honours is on us to make sure we maintain the, I guess, environmental advancements that have happened over this short pandemic period, and not revert so quickly to, I guess, the old life that we used to live in terms of-

Badr Al Olama: (13:42)
100% technology, Rachel. We should be embracing technology as a means to saying, if technology can do so many great things for us, why can't we use technology in our sort of, let's say, our mission to tackle climate change?

Rachel Pether: (13:57)
Absolutely. Another area that was obviously quite impacted through the pandemic was aerospace, where you're the head for Mubadala. How have your portfolio companies responded to COVID-19? Have you been able to adapt your business models accordingly?

Badr Al Olama: (14:15)
Well, mixed feelings there. I'm heartbroken for what's going on with aerospace at the moment. It's a very sort of sad story, but one thing we should never forget is that unless our world finds a better way for me to travel, let's say, to where you are at the moment in Switzerland, or to New York, there is no other way except by going through air or by through going through an airplane, right? You're not going to go by boat, you're not going to go by road. You're going to go by airplane. The fact is, airplanes are here to stay. Now, what I did when this whole thing started unfolding, and I was reading in the newspapers, it was going from bad to worse, I got sort of the three CEOs, the three main CEOs that I have. The CEO of Strata, which makes aircraft parts, the CEO of Sanad Aerotech, which actually maintains engines for the airlines, and the CEO of Sanad Capital, which actually leases spare engines and spare components to the airlines.

Badr Al Olama: (15:10)
And I told them upfront, "Guys, we need to hope for the best, but we need to plan for the worst. And I do see the worst coming." This is probably in around the February-March timeline. One thing that I'm very proud of, is that all three CEOs have managed their businesses through this crisis in a super professional way. They've managed to sort of rework their business model. They've managed to stay close to their customers and their suppliers. And more importantly, they've managed their liquidity in a way that sustains this business over the longterm. One of our businesses, Strata Manufacturing that makes aircraft parts, actually repurposed the workforce to start producing essential N95 masks. Now, think about this. Countries were banning the export of N95 masks. Countries were banning the export of the equipment that could make N95 masks. Even the material that was going in that N95 mask, countries were saying, "No, sorry. We're going to keep everything in-house. You go figure yourself out, right?"

Badr Al Olama: (16:11)
And as sad as the situation that the world couldn't work together to help each other, because... The UAE is not that far off, but think about cases like Africa that were probably suffering as a result of this pandemic spread. True partnership always prevails. What happened here is we stepped in with Honeywell, with the Chinese government who also supported us in getting the equipment, in getting the material, in getting the capabilities, so that we could produce the N95 masks in the UAE. And guess what? The UAE started exporting these N95 masks to other countries as well, because we're not going to ban it on other countries. And we exported to Japan and the United Kingdom. Think about that, right? The UAE is now a net exporter, as opposed to just consuming those N95 masks, off something that was so critical and so essential during the pandemic

Rachel Pether: (17:00)
And in such a short turnaround time too. I mean, I imagine it was quite difficult to change the whole manufacturing and production line.

Badr Al Olama: (17:09)
We actually added the production line and it was in 30 days. It took 30 days of, I'll tell you, sleepless nights, a lot of pressure from the leadership. But like I said, Honeywell, and the support of the Chinese government, truly prevailed in a situation where we were vulnerable and they stepped in and they supported us in actually making this happen for our economy and for our people, to make them feel safe.

Rachel Pether: (17:33)
That's fabulous. I really liked that story. And just sticking with aerospace as well, you could argue that the holy grail for aerospace, well, at this point in time, anyway I know it's ever evolving, is the race for Mars. The UAE had its historic first mission to Mars, a successful liftoff in Japan a couple of months ago. Why is it so important for the UAE?

Badr Al Olama: (18:00)
Let me start off by saying, maybe the holy grail for space is the Mars Mission. The holy grail for aerospace is probably flying green and cutting those CO2 emissions and hopefully one day, all of us can fly in an airplane that is either fueled by batteries or by fuel cells. I mean, that's pretty much the future. But going back to the Mars Mission, I mean, think about it, the UAE is a very young country, very large ambitions, one of three countries that launched the Mars Mission, the US and China being the other two, during the worst year ever that is plagued with just a disruption that's going on with the pandemic. And to be able to actually get that Mars Mission successfully launched, was a feat in itself, right? And that just proves the point. Where there is a will, there is a way. I think that was the first learning that we got out of it. The second learning that came out of it was, when we started letting the whole aspect of what this Mars Mission was about, settling, going and trying to understand the environment around Mars, trying to understand the weather patterns, trying to figure out why is it losing hydrogen or oxygen, and then sharing all those findings with the space community, that is truly a reflection of the UAE DNA. We are willing and ready to work with anyone for the greater good of humanity.

Rachel Pether: (19:20)
And as a UAE citizen, how did you feel when the Hope Probe was launched?

Badr Al Olama: (19:26)
Personally, I mean, I felt very proud. I felt very proud. I felt more determined to do hopefully better things for my own country. But it also kind of reminded me about some of the big milestones that the company I work for, Mubadala, established for both Abu Dhabi and the UAE. It reminded me about when we first established the aircraft parts component manufacturer. The first in the region, in Abu Dhabi. It reminded me about the three satellites that we launched through YahSat. It reminded me about the world class hospital that we established in Abu Dhabi with Cleveland clinic. I mean, these game changing initiatives that Mubadala established for Abu Dhabi, are just examples of how impactful we have been over the past at least 15 years since I've been with the company. And you know what's interesting, Rachel? In my personal belief, this is just the beginning. Why do I say this is just the beginning? Because we are planning today for the next 50 years of achievements.

Rachel Pether: (20:24)
Yeah, certainly one thing that's always impressed me about Mubadala has been, they've always managed to maintain this entrepreneurial spirit regardless of the actual size of the company. And as you mentioned, you've had so many milestones in your 15 career already. And actually I'd like to tie that back into something you mentioned that the holy grail for the aerospace would actually be to fly green. Is that something that you're working on? I guess, does that kind of form part of the Green Chain Initiative as well?

Badr Al Olama: (20:54)
I mean, from an investment perspective, we're always looking at new opportunities. And I do think that the new opportunity in aerospace is going to be the disruption that could be caused as a result of actually going green on inches. Now, do I really think that we're going to find a solution on flying electric very soon on commercial platforms? Maybe not, but there is a middle step here. Biofuels, and you see what Etihad is doing with Boeing and what else have been developed through biofuels and it's flying at least cleaner fuels in its planes. And I think that is sort of a stepping stone towards going electric. Electric will come. I do believe it will come in the form of fuel cells through potentially harnessing the power of hydrogen, but it's a few years away. We need to make it again, commercially viable before we start rolling it out in a big way. But it may find its way on smaller aircrafts.

Rachel Pether: (21:42)
So do you think that something with regards to the manufacturing of aircraft parts, do you think one day there might be an area that you're looking to invest in or develop would be the battery storage and the battery capabilities?

Badr Al Olama: (21:58)
I mean, the whole concept of battery manufacturing and assembling the pack, is going to become a regionalized business. You cannot depend on one country to provide a solution for the rest of the world. And at this moment in time, China is the biggest supplier in the entire world for batteries. So I do think it will be regionalized and I do sincerely hope that Abu Dhabi and the UAE will take a first mover advantage in terms of batteries. It is the future. It's a given fact. It's going on cars, it will eventually go on trains, it will eventually go on planes, and it's a fact that we all have to accept and it's better for the world, right? Like I said, clean energy, a green world, is good for all of us and makes sure that whatever great life that we all had in this age, is going to continue for the future generations. And that's what we need as a responsibility to sustain for our children and their children.

Rachel Pether: (22:56)
We've just had a question coming from the audience that relates to that, so I do want to pick that up. With regards to the changes that you've had with Strata and converting or adding the manufacturing of the N95 masks, do you think this is something that's here to stay or is this just a temporary kind of fix throughout this pandemic period?

Badr Al Olama: (23:21)
No, absolutely not. I mean, one thing that I do think that the UAE did very well and especially Mubadala, when we started incubating these projects in country, the first thing we focused on was investing in people. Today, Strata has the capability to manufacture very complex, very strategically important components on aircrafts, being parts on the wing and parts on the tail, so where the flag is, right? That same capability can be repurposed 10 times round to do other things. Things that are important to our economy, things that are important to society, things that are important to the world. And I think that more and more, we are going to go towards the Fourth Industrial Revolution where 3D printing is going to start playing a bigger role in aircraft component manufacturing. We did 3D printed component that went on Etihad, on one of the Boeing 777s. We did this in partnership with Siemens. And I do think that capability will be further developed over time because you just can't continue manufacturing things the same way going forward. It has to be smarter, and it has to be quicker, and it has to be cheaper.

Rachel Pether: (24:29)
And is 3D printing something that you've seen an uptick in use of within aerospace industry?

Badr Al Olama: (24:39)
Actually, the aerospace industry as we were saying before, is one of the most conservative industries that you'll ever deal with unfortunately. It's as sophisticated as those planes look like. The people that work on those planes, and this is something that's very good because you can ensure safety on those aircrafts, they tend to be very conservative. But from that perspective, 3D printing is a force that you cannot prevent or you cannot stop. The question is, how fast can you integrate it into your supply chain? I think the UAE has a fair chance to make that move. I think the UAE is better positioned than a lot of other countries to be a key player in 3D printing components than a lot of other countries around the world. So I'm hoping that we will be working closer with Boeing and Airbus, to actually start evolving our capabilities into 3D printing.

Rachel Pether: (25:27)
Yeah, there's definitely some advantages that come with being a younger country or a younger company, and maybe not having so many legacy issues to deal with in that regard. I know that as part of Mubadala's mandate and ethos, that knowledge transfer is really important to you. On the sort of gender balance or gender diversity side, how have you seen sort of the rise or the incorporation of female engineers and technicians within aerospace, given that it's a really highly technical area?

Badr Al Olama: (26:05)
Going back to about 2008-2009 when we first started on Strata, and we said that we're going to be establishing the first and the only, let's say, manufacturer of aircraft components in the region, I was skeptical to think, first of all, that we would be lucky enough to get a large population of UAE nationals to join. And then obviously my skepticism would have said, maybe not so many women, but probably quite a few men. When I look at Strata today, we have more than half of the workforce are UAE nationals. So they're UAE citizens. Out of those UAE citizens, nine out of 10 are women. Actually, the workforce in Strata is led, driven, delivered, challenged by women. And I can bet with anyone in the industry that there is no other manufacturer of aircraft components that has such a high concentration of women that are driving the manufacturing facility.

Badr Al Olama: (27:05)
And you know what, Rachel? I used to joke around about this. Every time the senior leadership of men that were out of the factory, may be in an air show or traveling around the world on business trips, there were no problems in that workforce. There was no problems in the facility. It was running smooth seamlessly. Every time we came back, we created the issues. "No, this is not right, or that's not working perfectly well." But whenever we were not there, it was working perfectly well. And to give you a testimony that we are doing something right, that is being appreciated globally, Airbus and Boeing have given us more work to do since we established that facility in 2008-2009. We've actually grown in terms of commitment from both Airbus and Boeing, as a result to show that we're delivering high quality components, on time, no issues and we do it without headache, without creating problems or issues to the supply chain.

Rachel Pether: (28:03)
You know better, that's because women are excellent multitaskers. So you're very lucky that most of the people on your team are female. We're now getting quite a lot of questions coming in from the audience. So I do just want to ask one of them now, because it relates to some of the new sectors or new areas that you're looking in. We've got one air firefighting is now critical in the world and the old CL-415 is really outdated. Is this another sector that Mubadala is looking into?

Badr Al Olama: (28:33)
From our perspective, again, we look at things from an investment perspective. So as long as there is, number one, let's say a decent and acceptable rate of return that's coming from an opportunity, that's our first sort of criteria. Then we will start looking into it seriously to actually consider whether or not we should invest abroad or invest in the UAE. Investing in the UAE, as important as it is to us, as important as it is to our Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030, might not necessarily be conducive for investment opportunity. Now, going to the point about that specific platform, I do think that the future of aircraft, or let's say aircraft manufacturing, probably is going to go down the UAV side. By finding cargo drone solutions, by finding these sort of merging innovation or technology with traditional forms of what the aircraft was supposed to do in terms of cargo or in terms of passenger transportation.

Badr Al Olama: (29:32)
I struggle to see sort of a business plan or a business case that could actually work in the lines of actually firefighting. In reality, we should actually try to solve what we say is, solve the cause of the problem, as opposed to trying to solve it after the problem happens. The issues that you have on forests and different parts of the world, there is another problem that's happening and that's global warming. So if we were to put our time and effort into doing something, not that I'm saying that we shouldn't do firefighting platforms or aircrafts, we should really try to tackle the issue of climate change. That's the root cause of the problem that we're facing with respect to forest fires in the Amazon, or let's say, in the West Coast in the US or even Australia.

Rachel Pether: (30:16)
Well, I guess that's one thing that you're looking to tackle with the Green Chain Initiative, isn't it?

Badr Al Olama: (30:21)
Absolutely.

Rachel Pether: (30:21)
How we can sort of counteract some of these issues around global warming.

Badr Al Olama: (30:25)
And that's not the only mirror, Rachel, to be fair. The UAE took the steps in terms of sustainability and the degree in economy, way back when Masdar was created, right? I even remember when people were saying, "Why is a country that produces fossil fuel, petroleum or oil, going into an area that is actually promoting, let's say, something that would cannibalize your own business, into renewables and solar power?" I mean, why not, right? It's the same question that came up when they were asking, "Why is the UAE doing a global initiative on manufacturing when you're such a young country?" Why not? "Why is the UAE making aircraft component parts when you don't even manufacture aircraft?" Why not? I think taking that aspect of why not, is really what has shown the world that we have been successful every and each single time that we've made those investment decisions.

Rachel Pether: (31:18)
It's funny that you bring up Masdar. I actually went there for the first time in about five years, just a couple of months ago and I was really impressed at how far that's grown. As you say, 10, 15 years ago, everyone was asking, "Well, why would the UAE be looking into this?" So, yeah, it's a great achievement for the UAE and for Mubadala. Another question which also relates to potential future capabilities or capacities in Mubadala, as lightweight parts are in demand and many other transport areas, do you think you can expand and use your capacities and capabilities in those areas, well, for the global market?

Badr Al Olama: (32:00)
Absolutely. I mean, the capabilities is not just on the aspect of manufacturing that we've invested in. Mubadala, across the entire portfolio, like I said, the number one thing that they did was invest in people. They've invested in me, right? I would have never been able to imagine at 32, that I'll be running an aircraft component factory that would be competing against the rest of the world. And the fact is, there are many other people within our organization that Mubadala has taken active steps and investing in building up their capability. Because each one you invest in, can create 10 other people like themselves. And I do think that there is no restriction whatsoever. If the UAE is heart-set, as we have seen on the Mars Mission, if we have a clear vision, we put up a clear mission, and we are very determined as a country to achieve on all our ambitions, we go all the way. And time and again, whether it was Mubadala, whether it was the Mars Hope Probe Mission, whether it was anything else, we have seen this happen time and again.

Rachel Pether: (33:01)
Now, you have answered a lot of sort of difficult and technical questions, Olama. We have 10 minutes left. So I'd actually like to ask you two softer questions that have come in from the audience. One is, you have achieved so much in your life already. What are the skills that you advise people in their 20s to be equipped with going forward?

Badr Al Olama: (33:23)
Honestly, it's having empathy. Having an emotional appreciation for people that you will be working with, that eventually one day you will be leading. It's not individuals like myself that actually create the successful results. It's the team around me. And I always tell people this, when they tell me that, "Wow, GMIS has achieved so much," or "Strata has achieved so much." I just say that I've been very fortunate in my life. That I've had a good group of people around me, that are really delivering some great results and it's reflecting on me. But the reality, it's not me. It's this group of people around me. So having this empathy and having an understanding of how to get the best out of your relationships with people and how to manage a group of people towards achieving a certain vision, that sort of understanding and empathy and emotional intelligence, is really the determining factor between being a manager and being a leader, if you know what I mean. We all want to become leaders, but not everyone is going to be successful if they don't have the emotional intelligence of actually knowing how to lead a group of people.

Rachel Pether: (34:31)
And I guess further to that point, who or what inspires you in terms of leadership?

Badr Al Olama: (34:39)
That's a difficult question to ask, but I'll share a story. And it's a very interesting story because it doesn't point the finger at one individual, but to a system. In 2015, as I said, when we started GMIS, and this was something that came up from our Global Agenda Council on the Future of Manufacturing, which was being organized by the World Economic Forum. Sort of the idea was coming together and it was talking about, we need to create a platform, bring the world together, talk about the future of manufacturing. And I really saw an opportunity here for the UAE. So I took this to my direct manager who was heading aerospace at the time, Homaid Al Shimmari. And I told him, "Boss, this is something that could change the world. And I do think that the UAE has a fair chance in making this move." He took me to our group CEO, Khaldoon Al Mubarak. He put me in front of Khaldoon. I took Khaldoon through the story saying, "This is what it is. It's about the Fourth Industrial Revolution." Back in 2015, before people started talking about the Fourth Industrial Revolution in a big way.

Badr Al Olama: (35:46)
And you know what? Khaldoon said after I finished the pitch, he said, "Badr, what can I do more to make you successful in driving this forward?" Look, anyone else, both bosses, right? My direct manager and the group CEO, could have said, "You're getting distracted. You're doing something different from aerospace. You're going on a completely different area. Focus on your business. Focus on what we're paying you to do." And both of them actually gave me the opportunity. And not only the opportunity, but offered their support in giving me the chance to actually make something successful. So whatever GMIS is, besides the fact that I give credit to my team, it's the fact that I had very good leadership from the very beginning that made GMIS a success today.

Rachel Pether: (36:34)
That's an excellent story and I can definitely resonate with that. And I know it wasn't just a political answer. I know it really did come from the heart. Just closing question then, can you tell me, within the ministry that you work for or on the Fourth Industrial Revolution, what most excites you in that space at the moment? And also a very broad topic, but maybe pick sort of one or two key things.

Badr Al Olama: (37:01)
Honestly, I'm really, super excited with the whole concept of co-creation using open innovation as a platform. I'm very excited about 3D printing and I'm just as excited about when it comes to artificial intelligence. Using artificial intelligence for predictive maintenance, for different applications. I mean, that ministerial council, which was... I'm no longer a member. I was a member when it was first created in 2017. The whole intention was to be able to, let me say, stimulate the knowledge about all these different technologies within our economy, within our businesses, within our government framework. And I can say from 2017 until today, look around you, we have a minister for artificial intelligence. The same minister is actually looking into the digital economy. We have a minister just appointed to look into sciences and advanced technology. We have a university, the Mohammed bin Zayed University for Artificial Intelligence. I mean, things have just progressed as a result of creating that ministerial committee. And honestly, like I said, the next 50 years are going to be much more exciting than the previous 50 years, that I at least spent 40 of them working on.

Rachel Pether: (38:17)
Badr, thank you so much. We have a couple of minutes left and I think it's great to end on such a positive note. So thank you so much for your time and your empathy and your humility and sharing your time with us today. It's been a pleasure talking to you as in our old day.

Badr Al Olama: (38:33)
Thank you for having me, Rachel. I appreciate it.

Mark Stoleson: Principles Before Profit | SALT Talks #51

“Life is not about what you get, life is about who you become.“

Mark Stoleson is the Chief Executive Officer & Partner of Legatum, a global investment firm based in Dubai with the mission to generate and allocate the capital and ideas that help people prosper. Prior to Legatum, Mark was a corporate finance and M&A attorney with Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld.

“Hard work, a focus on service and looking after your neighbors” are guiding principles of both Mark’s personal life and Legatum. The firm manages only their own capital, which means they can have a longer-term perspective in their investments. Mark focuses on simple, big ideas: Where is the growth? What simple idea can they express with a really big company? Points of focus for Legatum include the expansion of China’s middle class by 300 million people over the next 10 years, as well as the 450 million unbanked people in India.

Philanthropy is a pillar of Legatum’s investment prospectus. “If we generate excess capital, how can we use it to help others prosper?” The firm has worked to eradicate neglected tropical diseases, like worms, that are prevalent due to a supply chain issue, not a shortage of capital or resources.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Mark Stoleson.jpeg

Mark Stoleson

CEO & Partner

Legatum

MODERATOR

anthony_scaramucci.jpeg

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

Rachel Pether: (00:08)
Hello, everyone. Welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is Rachel Pether, and I'm a senior advisor to SkyBridge, typically based in Abu Dhabi. I'm also the emcee for SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum at the intersection of finance, technology, and public policy. SALT Talks are a series of digital interviews that we launched during the work-from-home period. And what we're really endeavoring to do with the SALT Talks series is replicate the type of experience from our SALT conferences, where we provide a window into the mind of leading investors, creators, and thinkers, as well as providing a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. We obviously want to hear from you, our audience, so if you have any questions, please do just enter in the Q &A section of the Zoom screen.

Rachel Pether: (00:59)
And today's guest. We are very excited to welcome Mark Stoleson to SALT Talks. Mark is the chief executive officer and a partner of Legatum, a global investment firm based in Dubai with a mission to generate and allocate capital to help people prosper. Over the last 16 years, Mark and his partners have worked together to build a world-class investment fund while pioneering a number of high impact philanthropic endeavors, which I'm sure we'll hear more about later today. These include the END Fund, the Freedom Fund, Luminos, the Legatum Center for Development and Entrepreneurship at MIT, and the Legatum Institute Foundation in London.

Rachel Pether: (01:43)
Prior to Legatum, Mark was a corporate finance and M & A attorney with Akin Gump in Dallas, Texas, and also Moscow, Russia. He earned a BA in international relations from Occidental College and a master's in law from Duke University. Mark, it is a real pleasure having you with us today.

Mark Stoleson: (02:02)
Rachel, great to be with you. Thanks for having me on.

Rachel Pether: (02:06)
So I completely paraphrased your bio there, and I apologize for that. So maybe before we talk about Legatum, tell me a bit about you and your personal background.

Mark Stoleson: (02:16)
Well, I actually thought you did a great job. That's just about it. But just my personal background, so I grew up in just a great, but fairly normal American middle-class family in Phoenix, Arizona. And my both my parents were first-generation college graduates. My dad served in the military, and my mom was a pioneering young CPA in the 1960s. And I think from the two of them, I got a lot of who I am today. So hard work, a focus on service, taking care of looking after your neighbors, and just the values that I have. And I think some of the values that Legatum has just came from where most of us get our values, from our family. One of my partners has a great phrase that we've really adopted as kind of the firm motto, which is that life is not about what you get, life is about who you become. I really think my parents infused that spirit and those values in me, and you can really see them expressed in what Legatum is all about today.

Rachel Pether: (03:22)
I love that. And I guess that's a nice segue to Legatum itself. It's obviously quite a lofty name. What does the name actually stand for? Tell me a bit about that.

Mark Stoleson: (03:32)
Yeah. Legatum is Latin and it means legacy. But the Latin word for legacy is actually a legal term, and it means a gift or a bequest to the next generation. So if you were writing up a will, a legatum would be the gift. It would be, "I legatum Rachel my car." The car would be the legatum, you would be the legatee, that would be the legator. So it means gift. And the idea that we seized on was we've got a limited amount of time on this planet, we want to do our best to make it better for the next generation. We feel like we stand on the shoulders of giants that came before us. We inherited a bunch of wonderful things. What can we do to make it better for others? So that's what legatum means, and it really drives a lot of who we are and what we try to do.

Rachel Pether: (04:17)
And I know that you were previously in Moscow before, when was it that you made the move to Dubai? How did you come about moving to the UAE?

Mark Stoleson: (04:33)
Well, it's a bit of a funny story, but I was sitting in my office. I was a young lawyer working in an American firm in Moscow doing corporate finance work, and a recruiter just called me out of the blue. I was sitting in my office. I don't know, it was probably a Saturday. And she said, "Look, I have this very off-the-wall opportunity, but it's in Dubai. So just stop me right now if that's completely off the table and if you have no interest moving to Dubai." This was 2004, maybe 2003, 2004. And I was interested. I was just immediately keen to know more, but I had no idea where Dubai was.

Mark Stoleson: (05:10)
So I remember holding the phone to my ear saying "Absolutely, no problem with Dubai. Tell me more." And I was Googling Dubai. Where exactly is Dubai? So that's how it all started. And that was 16 years ago. And it has been an incredible adventure. One that I didn't expect. I came for a job, but I really wound up teaming up with some incredible partners and an amazing team that has a purpose and a sense of mission to not only build a world-class investment organization but to use the capital that we generate, like you said, to express our mission, which is to help others prosper.

Rachel Pether: (05:47)
I love that. And I remember doing the same when I first had the opportunity to move to Abu Dhabi. I mean, I couldn't even spell it at first. So when you were ... you were active in emerging markets as Legatum before many people were even venturing there. What drew you to the emerging markets initially?

Mark Stoleson: (06:07)
Yeah, I think some people, when they look at our history, they instinctively think that we're an emerging markets fund or that's a focus of our business. And it is, but it really isn't. Something that makes Legatum quite distinctive is that we only manage our own capital. So it's all proprietary capital. And that gives us a huge competitive advantage in that we can take a very long-term perspective, and we can invest in any sector in any country and really are the masters of our own destiny. So that's the core of what makes Legatum different. And because of that, we do ... because we have long-term capital, we have a longterm perspective, and we're looking for companies that can create long-term value. That's just a good fit for our capital.

Mark Stoleson: (06:50)
So historically, we've been looking for, great secular growth stories in companies or companies that are innovating and disrupting, creating long-term value. It just so happened that for several decades, you could find those types of opportunities in the emerging markets, but we're not wedded to that. And today, we would be looking for a more nuanced view of emerging markets within global markets today. So you might find an emerging technology or maybe in a subset of some country that's really emerging and really beginning to innovate and create value. So we don't think of ourselves as emerging markets investors, but we are looking for emerging trends and emerging opportunities.

Rachel Pether: (07:31)
So what would be some examples of those that you mentioned within emerging opportunities? What are some areas that you're currently looking at now?

Mark Stoleson: (07:43)
Currently, for us, the way that we look at opportunities is through a very big lens, a very simple lens, actually that we call a simple, big idea. We say that we stand on the moon and look back at planet earth and say, "Where are the opportunities today?" And so just try to make it really simple. Where is there growth, and what kind of simple, big idea can we express with a really great company, and just looking at a country like China, for example. Lots of people have different opinions and perspectives on China, but the reality is that it's expected that China's middle class will grow by another 300 million people over the next 10 years. It's expected that they'll add about $5 trillion worth of consumption over the next 10 years.

Mark Stoleson: (08:29)
So if you think about that for a second, that's like almost the entire population of the United States moving into the middle class in China. So we sit around thinking, "Well, what's that going to do? What are those middle-class people going to want to do?" Well, they're going to want to do what all middle class people want to do around the world. They're going to want to buy things, and they're going to want to improve their lives. And so when we ponder that and think, "Well, how can we express that in a company that's well-run and that really has amazing opportunity to grow and create value over the long-term?" It would look like a company like Alibaba. So that's a very well-known story, but in our opinion, it may not be known as well as it could be or should be. We just feel like it's got a very long runway and has a lot more value that it can create.

Mark Stoleson: (09:14)
For example, when you look at Alibaba, people think of it, I think, in shorthand as sort of an amazon.com of China. And that's not totally unfair. Like Amazon, it has an AWS cloud-based service. Amazon's is worth, recently when I checked, $750 billion, and that's the whole market cap of Alibaba. So that gives you just a sense of the growth potential of Alibaba as both an online consumer platform and AWS and FinTech. It's just a great way to express this simple, big idea that the Chinese consumer is rising and will do so for a long time.

Rachel Pether: (09:54)
I mean, 300 million people coming into the middle-class. As someone from New Zealand, that number just blows my mind. I mean, that's a hundred times our entire population.

Mark Stoleson: (10:04)
It's hard to wrap your head around it. I'll give you one other example real quick. And that is when we look at a country like India, it's expected that by 2030, India maybe, or should be, the third largest economy in the world. So what happens as an economy of that size grows and expands? Well, you're going to see changes in the capital markets and how businesses are financed. So one of our other investments today is in a company called the National Stock Exchange of India. It's the number one stock exchange in India. And as you see bank financing beginning to morph into capital markets financing for growing businesses, this company should be well positioned to be a leader. And it's got EBITDA margins of 78%. It's highly profitable, well-run, number one in its space, and in a growing country. When we have long-term capital, we're looking for long-term value creation, it's those types of companies.

Rachel Pether: (10:59)
And is that related to micro-financing or is that more like SME corporate lending?

Mark Stoleson: (11:09)
National Stock Exchange of India would be like the New York Stock Exchange of India. It's everything. It's equity, it's credit, it's derivatives, and they are either number one or number two in all of those spaces. So it's just well positioned to capture that entire market in India. But you mentioned microfinance, that's another great story. So that's a great example of the type of thing that Legatum invests in. And many years ago, we were captured by this simple, big idea that there are 450 million unbanked people in India, so people that have no access at all to any banking services. Well, that's a problem, but that's also a huge opportunity. And you saw the emergence of private sector, microfinance companies getting out there into rural areas of India and offering basic financial services.

Mark Stoleson: (12:00)
So we wanted to support that development both from a philanthropic perspective but also just because this has all the hallmarks of potentially a great business. And our first major foray into microfinance was a disaster. It wound up being a complete zero. It was us trying our hand at a private company. We were new to India as well. We got several things wrong, and it was a total write-off. But I think part of the way that Legatum is put together is we invest on the basis of our beliefs. We invest with the posture of hope, and we learn. And we try to apply what we learn, whether it's good or bad.

Mark Stoleson: (12:43)
And so in that case, we took that institutional knowledge that we had built up from what looked like a failure and applied it later. And several years later, we wound up helping recapitalize the company called SKS, which was the number one, and a publicly listed, microfinance company. And that stock went up 4X from our investment, and we wound up making back all of our money and more. And it was a great end of the story, but the key pivot point was a commitment to the space, but also a commitment just to applying what we've learned.

Rachel Pether: (13:16)
That's fabulous. And I think I've heard you ... we've discussed before about how you invest on the basis of your beliefs, not your fears, which is obviously an excellent investment thesis, but I want to go a bit further into what you were talking about, these big ideas made simple. And I know that philanthropy is an area of importance for you personally and for the firm. Can you tell me more about some of the work that you've done here?

Mark Stoleson: (13:44)
Yeah. Sure. So just going back to our mission statement, and you said it very well, it is to generate and allocate the capital and ideas that can help others prosper. So to express that mission, we've got to do two things really well. First, we've got to generate capital. We've got to run a world-class investment organization, and we're super blessed to have a world-class team and a group of people that's been together for a long time. And when we stick to our knitting and operate within our core competencies, we can do that well. If we generate excess capital, how can we use it to help others prosper? And over the last 15 years, we've done that in a lot of different ways. And just like in our investment activities, we've learned a lot of things the hard way, but some things have really fired and have done really well.

Mark Stoleson: (14:29)
And an example of a simple, big idea is our work in global de-worming. So one of my partners, Alan McCormick ... it's a story that's become lore at Legatum. He was reading an article in the FT. It said that 1.5 billion people have intestinal worms and that the medicine is free or almost free, and you just basically have a logistical sort of supply chain management problem, but that this is a solvable problem. It cost 50 cents per person to treat them. So doing some quick math, we thought that's a solvable problem. That's the problem that could be solved in our lifetimes. Let's go for it. And that started us off on a ten-year plus odyssey that started with Burundi and Rwanda. We allocated about $10 million, did a seven-year project and saw the disease prevalence in those two countries come down radically.

Mark Stoleson: (15:23)
So these worms, they're not just small things. These are major neglected tropical diseases. They can kill you. They can make you lame. They can make you blind. And they're only in the poorest communities on the planet. And so we felt like we can make an outsized difference, an outsized return on investment in that space. They're called neglected tropical diseases because they're neglected. People don't think about them because in Western economies, worms are not an issue anymore. You just don't find them in New Zealand or in Switzerland or in the U.S. So we tackled that problem. And what I love about this story is not only did we see amazing success in that first 7 to 10 years in Rwanda and Burundi, but once we had the case study and the data that showed that it worked, we thought, "Well, we need to scale this. So how can we bring in more partners?"

Mark Stoleson: (16:13)
And we took our name off of it and worked with just a small group of other co-founders. And we launched what's called the END Fund, ending neglected diseases, and it started small. But as of today, it's issued more than a billion dollars worth of medicine. It's treated over 900 million people. And this year is amazing. In 2020, with all of the restrictions and lockdowns and challenges, we're on track to treat a hundred million people in 2020.

Rachel Pether: (16:45)
Wow. That's an incredibly impressive statistic. And I know that when we were speaking just earlier, we did notice that you do in fact have a sample of some of them behind you in the bookshelf that have been very, very well-traveled.

Mark Stoleson: (17:04)
And I assured you that that wasn't put there as a prop. It actually does reside here in our library here at work. So we're a hundred percent back in the office here in Dubai and that jar of worms, it's obviously not pretty, but it's very effective at helping people understand these things exist. And this is what it can look like inside of a child's belly. And it can do a lot of damage. And so the CEO of the END Fund, Ellen Agler, was invited to be one of the only outside speakers at a Gates Foundation all staff meeting, and she brought that jar of worms. And so for us, it's very meaningful, it's well-traveled, but it reminds us that we're not just working on statistics or big numbers, but every life is supremely valuable, and we want to tackle these types of problems.

Rachel Pether: (17:54)
And so when you ... a lot of people ... it's almost like CSR and ESG are almost becoming catchphrases nowadays. And many companies have CSR manuals that sit gathering dust. When you look at companies to invest in, is the impact piece or the CSR piece, is that important to you as an investor as well?

Mark Stoleson: (18:20)
So it's not important to us, and I'll tell you why. It may be important to that company. And we don't be grudged what those companies are trying to do or their motives, but from a Legatum perspective, given that our mission is to generate capital, and then for us to use that capital to express our mission to help others prosper, we want as much capital as possible returned to us so that we can control how that money is used to express our mission. We feel like if the company keeps some of the shareholder returns that should be returned to us and they use it, then they're expressing a totally different mission. We would rather have the money and use it for things that we verified, that we trust, and that we have confidence in, and that that's a better use of capital.

Mark Stoleson: (19:06)
And maybe we have a little differentiated view, but when we look at someone like Bill Gates, for example, or Microsoft, I'm grateful to Bill Gates, we use his operating system. In my opinion, he's changed the world for the better. We all use this to communicate and connect, to do business and work from home. And so we should be grateful to Bill Gates for Microsoft and these operating systems, if that's all he did, that would be super noble and just super admirable. But the fact that he then did that, and then started the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and takes capital and does more good, to me, is not giving back.

Mark Stoleson: (19:47)
You shouldn't operate out of guilt or out of a sense of duty. That's like giving again. He's already given the world something great, and he's giving the world something great again. And I like that paradigm and Legatum likes that paradigm too where giving should be cheerful, giving should be joyful, not out of a sense of guilt or some heavy sort of duty. And that's kind of the spirit that we have at Legatum that we try to express with all of our partners in the field.

Rachel Pether: (20:12)
That's fabulous. And I guess that sort of leads to another question then. When you're looking at your philanthropic vehicles, and I know you have a number of them, so I would like to talk about some of the others as well, how do you measure success then? You don't use these quantitative metrics because that is separate from the investment side of the business. How do you look at that in terms of success with the philanthropic vehicles?

Mark Stoleson: (20:41)
Yeah. Well, it's difficult. I mean, it's a real challenge, but it's a challenge that we all ... if you're going to give away money well and do no harm is your first obligation, you have to be serious about measuring what it is that you're doing. I mean, Aristotle said that it's harder to give money away than make it. And we think that that's actually true because you're in the business of intervening in people's lives and that should be handled with great care. And so I would answer in that we do are very, very best and we give it a lot of attention. With something like the END Fund, and really across the board in all of our philanthropic activities, we're not asking the question of how much money is required or how much money have we given. That's a metric that the world ... it's a crude metric, and it's a metric that the world uses.

Mark Stoleson: (21:29)
Our question is much more of an investment mindset. What's the return on investment. Running Legatum as an investment organization, if I sat here and told you, "This is how much money we invested," you would say, "Well, that's great, but what were your returns like?" It should be the same question in the philanthropic space. And so that's the mindset with which we approach everything that we do philanthropically. So at the END Fund or the Freedom Fund or the other things that you mentioned, where we infuse into the organizations and work with the leadership and the board just to make sure that we establish baselines right at the very beginning of any project and understand where we're starting from, and then do our best to track the progress so that we've got great numbers that have integrity and that can give us good feedback mechanisms so we can make adjustments to get the highest return on investment.

Rachel Pether: (22:17)
You mentioned the Freedom Fund again. We've actually already had quite a few questions coming in from the audience, which I do want to address, but before I move on to those questions, tell me a bit more about the Freedom Fund and how that's one of the big ideas made simple.

Mark Stoleson: (22:33)
Okay. So the Freedom Fund from a Legatum perspective was doing two things at the outset. One was Legatum had a long history, and really that predated even my arrival here, in fighting modern day slavery, human trafficking, modern day slavery all over the world, including in South America and Eastern Europe, Western Africa. And so we looked at this issue and felt like the latest data coming out of the U.S. and government agencies is that you've got 30 to 40 million slaves in the world. And given the ethos of Legatum and the primacy that we placed just on freedom, just on the sanctity of the individual and freedom, we felt like that's just a scourge and an evil that has got to be addressed.

Mark Stoleson: (23:24)
And the manner in which we're going to address it is to be targeted and focused and take that long-term approach. So what we did with the Freedom Fund was took a page out of our playbook from the END Fund and said, "How can we collaborate with other philanthropists and pool our capital and pool our resources and our experience, and really a serious push here?" So we joined forces with an organization called Walk Free and another one called Humanity United, and together with Legatum, the three of us launched the Freedom Fund. And the goal of the Freedom Fund is to work with front line organizations.

Mark Stoleson: (24:02)
So instead of top down approach of saying, "We know how to deal with issues of slavery," we're coming alongside in partnership and supporting those who are already doing it on the front lines, in their communities, who speak the language, who understand the culture, and who have a passion for this work. And instead of scatter-gunning around the world in lots of small projects, we focused all of our efforts really in sort of the South Asian corridor, where you see a high prevalence of slavery and trafficking. It felt like, "Let's make a big dent there."

Mark Stoleson: (24:35)
And so that's what we've done. And the Freedom Fund has been directly involved in liberating nearly 30,000 people from slavery. And their education programs and rehabilitation and awareness programs have touched over nearly 700,000 people. And we feel like we're just getting going. That's something that we won't stop doing until we're gone or until that ends. And so we have amazing partners in Humanity United and Walk Free that are in it for the long-term as well.

Rachel Pether: (25:07)
And so how do you define slavery, modern day slavery?

Mark Stoleson: (25:13)
Yeah, I mean, I think there are probably different definitions out there, but our definition is people who have lost their freedom and are being exploited for profits. So, again, there are different opinions, but when we look at it on a very fundamental basis, on a simple basis, anyone who's been deprived of their freedom of movement and their ability to express their individual life as they see fit, can fall into that category. But very specifically, when you see people in forced labor or child labor or the issue of brothels in some countries, these are ... you don't need a definition, and you don't need a PhD, you know it's slavery, you know it's bondage, you know it's wrong. And so that's what we're going after.

Rachel Pether: (26:03)
Thank you so much. We have a question. Well, we've had a number of questions coming in from the audience. And I would just like to address some of them. We've had one from David Wagner. And thank you for your question, David. He said, "Mark, Legatum does fantastic work. The Prosperity Index as always a must read each year. What criteria do you use to decide how to allocate capital?"

Mark Stoleson: (26:30)
Okay, great question. Well, if I can, I'd love to, first of all, say thank you, David, for the question. And the Prosperity Index has turned out to be a very, very powerful tool. The story there is if Legatum's mission is to promote prosperity and to help others prosper, we want to understand what that even means. And so many years ago, we worked with some amazing minds at Oxford University to deconstruct the meaning of prosperity. A lot of people think that means money or just material wealth. And the meaning of that word is just much more complex and nuanced. It means your health, and it means the quality of your relationships and your feeling of opportunity. It's just a very multifaceted term.

Mark Stoleson: (27:17)
And so part of what we wanted to do is help people understand prosperity is good because certainly it means wealth, it means growth, but it means a holistic sense of wellbeing as well. It means all the reasons that life is worth living. So that's prosperity. So then we thought, "Well, if we can define it, how can we measure it?" And the Prosperity Index is now run by a team in London at the Legatum Institute who are super brainy. And they use regression analysis and super technical stuff that's way over my head, but they have 82 different variables. They run this slide rule over every country on the planet, and they are beginning to help policy makers understand what drives prosperity and what restrains prosperity. And this to us is a gift. It's a tool, hopefully, to policy makers and decision makers. If they're interested in creating more prosperity in their countries, this would be a tool that serves those interests.

Mark Stoleson: (28:09)
Now, that's the Prosperity Index. The other part of David's question was what's our investment criteria. And our investment criteria just coming back to the beginning of this conversation is just really simple. We look for those simple, big ideas. We look for secular growth stories. When we find things that match up, and we find a great opportunity, we then allocate a significant amount of capital behind our high conviction ideas. So we go narrow and deep. We felt like the way to multiply our capital is not being right 100% of the time, it's being right a few times, but really backing those high conviction ideas with everything we've got. So as a consequence, we tend to run a very concentrated portfolio. Sometimes as few as a handful of names, three names, five names, usually never more than 10.

Mark Stoleson: (28:59)
And to us, that's the way that we manage risk is rather than diversifying with 50 or a hundred names, we just want to have a handful of names that we know extremely well and have high conviction behind. And that's how we invest. And that's all great. We have the ability with long-term proprietary capital to hold through volatility, but our team is amazing. And they've also got the courage and boldness to pull the trigger when opportunities present themselves like we've seen even in March of this year.

Rachel Pether: (29:28)
Definitely. And I think that we've actually had another question come in, which relates almost follows on from what you've just said about these concentrated and contrarian bets. So it's ex alum, and he said the Chandlers, founders of Legatum, are well-known for taking these super concentrated and contrarian bets that sometimes took a long time to play out and had to volatility along the way. The question is would Legatum be able to run a strategy the same way if the firm managed outside capital?

Mark Stoleson: (30:01)
That's a great question. Well, in terms of our history, so Legatum was really launched independently in 2006 with four partners. We have Christopher Chandler, Alan McCormick, Phillip Vassiliou, and myself. And today, it's a partnership of equals. It's a partnership that's tied together. We're not related by blood. We've just worked together for 15, 16 years, but what unites us and actually what unites everyone at Legatum is this sense of mission and the purpose for why we're here. And so we feel extremely lucky to have this job because we get to work in a great investment firm, but we get to use the capital for things that matter.

Mark Stoleson: (30:43)
It's a great question about whether or not we'd be able to execute on Legatum strategy, which is long-term, un-levered, and just looking for really high quality names and letting them compound value over time. It would be really difficult to do this with outside capital. If we had limited partners calling and wanting their money back every time the market has a hiccup that would hugely complicate our investment approach. And so in March of this year, for example, we were carrying a very significant amount of cash coming into this year, had absolutely no idea what was on the horizon like the rest of the world. And with a concentrated portfolio, we saw names in which we have huge conviction, we know very, very well, really take a hit just from sentiments and the market reacting.

Mark Stoleson: (31:35)
And so in those moments of time, we can definitely hold or we can back our beliefs and invest on the basis of our beliefs and not our fears. And that's what we did. And so I'm extremely proud of our team because we basically went fully invested in March and that's worked out well so far. But our time horizon is not just trying to get to the end of this year, we're looking at 3 years and 5 years and 10 years and building a legacy of Legatum for the next generation.

Rachel Pether: (32:03)
What's always impressed me about the story of the founding partners at Legatum as well, you have a very similar ... or you share the same investment thesis. You also share very much the same values. I don't think you'd be able to do all the work that you do on the philanthropic side, if you didn't really, truly believe in the mission statement. So how do you ... and sorry, I shouldn't say statement ... in your mission, how did it work with all of you coming together, and was it always so aligned at the very outset?

Mark Stoleson: (32:37)
It was aligned at the very outset. And how does that happen? I'm not sure, but when it does it, don't miss it would be my advice, grab a hold of it with both hands. And I have two grown sons who are just in university. And part of my advice to them is a lot of ways life is less about what you do, it's more about who you do it with. And that's definitely been my experience. And so I look around today and feel like the things that mean the most to me are my relationships. And within the Legatum context, that really starts with my partners. And we started as colleagues, but we became friends and we became partners and more, and so we're connected within our families as godparents. And we've been to funerals and weddings and graduations and everything else.

Mark Stoleson: (33:32)
We're doing life together, but it's not limited to just these four partners and owners of the firm, it's open and available and we wanted for everyone that works at Legatum, that comes in contact with Legatum because to us, relationships are a core part of a prosperous life. And so I think we recognize that in each other. I talked about my parents at the beginning and that sense that life is about who you become, it's not about what you get. I don't know how they got that programmed into me, but I just knew it. And when I came into contact with other people, with whom that resonated, we were like, "We can do something great." And we did. We sat down with a blank sheet of paper.

Mark Stoleson: (34:12)
We were blessed with ... we had capital, but we said, "What kind of business do we want to create?" And it generated one of those deathbed conversations with yourself where you're like, "Hey, when I'm on my death bed and I look back, what do I want my life to have been about?" It's pretty short. You should stay awake for it. And we all were of the same mind that let's do something special. Let's try to make the best use of our time and this capitol and be excellent at what we do. And so the Legatum story so far is an attempt to fulfill that belief or that mission. And it's had a lots of fits and starts. It's had lots of failures and challenges along the way. We've had a few successes, and we're all still together, which to me is probably the number one success.

Rachel Pether: (35:00)
That's definitely a very good sign. It was interesting when you were talking about the Prosperity Index and the sort of things you look for with regards to prosperity. I feel that in this modern world, we're so hungry to chase down success that actually we become miserable people or people with bad values. And so it's really about how you define prosperity to you rather than just, as you say, financial success or monetary gain.

Mark Stoleson: (35:30)
Yeah. Well, I think that's right. I mean, when I look back over the Legatum experience, I feel like the main takeaway is that no one here came from money, so this is a bootstrap, first-generation environment here. And so it's kind of like "if it's going to be, it's up to me" atmosphere. And yet looking at what we've done together, I feel like therefore, there's nothing special, we're not PhDs in development economics. We're just normal people that came together around an idea, agreed that we were going to try to execute on this together, and then we just never gave up. Maybe we're just very stubborn, but I feel like that formula is available to everyone. Find something that you believe in, find people you want to do it with, don't give up, and you might be surprised what happens in 10, 15, 20 years.

Rachel Pether: (36:26)
I would like to give you the final word, Mark. What is one thing that is exciting about the next 12 months in terms of investing with Legatum?

Mark Stoleson: (36:40)
Well, I mean, one of the things that we try to focus on is, again, like I said, that concentrated portfolio with high conviction ideas. So ideally, we'll be doing very little over the next year in terms of our investing. Now, that's a bit of a joke because we're constantly working. We're constantly scanning the globe looking for new opportunities. We're keen and eager learners. So we're constantly trying to learn about new disruptive technologies. You would find us sort of investing in companies that fit with our profile and our strategy, whether it's in financial services or in tech or in consumer, but you would probably find us trying to learn about crypto and about FinTech and about DeFi, and what are emerging markets within the broader market of global finance.

Mark Stoleson: (37:27)
And so those are some of the themes that we would be excited about and looking at over the next year. But really, Legatum doesn't really even think in terms of the next year. We think in terms of the next 10 years. And what I'm excited about is working with my incredible colleagues here at Legatum to see Legatum multiply our capital, multiply our impact, and multiply our influence, and do it together over the next 10 years.

Rachel Pether: (37:54)
Thank you so much, Mark. It's been a joy to speak with you as it always is. And I think you really do make this amazing case or great example of values based investing and the true impact that you're having. So thank you so much for giving up your precious time today to speak with us. And I hope that we can continue the conversation at some point in the future as well.

Mark Stoleson: (38:16)
Rachel, a real pleasure. Thanks so much.