S1 | Digital Assets

Brett Harrison: Crypto Derivatives | SALT Talks #255

“In order for all of the various DeFi applications to exist and really scale, you need a layer one blockchain.”

Brett Harrison, FTX US president, describes FTX’s founding by Sam Bankman-Fried and how the international exchange differs from its US counterpart. Harrison discusses FTX US’ recent LedgerX acquisition, the company’s broader vision and its recent marketing push. He explains the need for layer one blockchains in powering DeFi and how NFTs are serving as a crypto gateway for many. He lays out the case for centralized and decentralized finance’s coexistence and the potential of Serum, FTX’s latest decentralized project powered by Solana.

Prior to joining FTX US, Brett was Head of Semi-Systematic Technology at Citadel Securities, where he managed technology for the firm’s Options, ETF, OTC, and ADR trading globally. He began and spent the majority of his career at Jane Street, where he led the firm’s algorithmic trading system development. He also previously worked at Headlands Technologies as a senior software developer. Brett received his M.S. and B.A. in Computer Science from Harvard.

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MODERATOR

SPEAKER

Brett Harrison - Headshot - Cropped.jpeg

Brett Harrison

President

FTX US

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 – Intro and background

5:55 – Explaining FTX and FTX US

10:06 – Acquiring LedgerX

12:19 – The FTX vision

16:08 – FTX US marketing and naming rights

18:58 – Solana, Project Serum and DeFi

23:28 – NFTs

25:29 – Potential additional acquisitions

28:56 – Comparing traditional finance and crypto

31:35 – Centralized and decentralized finance coexisting

35:04 – NFTs and play-to-earn gaming

38:12 – Responding to crypto critics

43:06 – Pyth network

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie: (00:12)
Hello everyone. And welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is John Darsie. I'm the managing director of SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance, technology and public policy.

John Darsie: (00:26)
SALT Talks are a digital interview series with leading investors, creators, and thinkers. And our goal on these talks is the same as our goal at our SALT conferences, which we're excited to resume here in September of 2021. Our guest today is going to be a speaker there. We're very excited to have him and his firm at the SALT New York event. It's shaping up to be a fantastic event, not just in crypto, but covering asset managers from hedge funds, venture capital, down through the entire alternative investment spectrum. So looking forward to a fantastic event there.

John Darsie: (00:57)
But our goal there, and our goal here on these talks is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future.

John Darsie: (01:09)
And our guest today is the president of FTX US. FTX is a company that we think is one of the most important companies, if not the most important company today in the crypto ecosystem. His name is Brett Harrison. Again, he's the president of FTX US, which is a US regulated cryptocurrency exchange.

John Darsie: (01:26)
Prior to joining FTX US, Brett was the head of semi-systematic technology at Citadel Securities in Chicago, where he still lives and where he managed technology for the firm's options, ETF, over the counter and ADR trading globally. He began and spent the majority of his career at Jane Street, which is where he met Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX. Where he led the firm's algorithmic trading system development.

John Darsie: (01:50)
He also previously worked at Headlands Technologies as senior software developer. Brett received his master's and his bachelor's degree in computer science from Harvard. Our host today Anthony Scaramucci also spent some time at Harvard, but over at the law school. Anthony also took three attempts to pass the bar exam. So I'm going to go ahead and say that Brett's academic accomplishments maybe supersede Anthony's a little bit, but Anthony is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge, which is a global [crosstalk 00:02:16] alternative investment firm.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:17)
[crosstalk 00:02:17].

John Darsie: (02:17)
He's also the chairman of SALT. Go ahead, Anthony. Get your shots in on me.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:23)
[crosstalk 00:02:23] mention the fact I got fired from The White House before we get the thing started or what?

John Darsie: (02:25)
[crosstalk 00:02:25].

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:26)
The problem is if I divided my age by four, it like adds up to your ages. Okay? I mean your respective ages. So I'm with two young bucks here. So I'm on my own, okay? I don't have any baby boomers here to protect me. Keep going Darsie. What else you got to say? Go ahead.

John Darsie: (02:42)
I'm done. I've said all the disparaging things I'm going to say, but we're excited to have Brett on here. At SkyBridge, Anthony obviously, as you might know Brett, we were one of the first '40 Act funds to invest in funds with allocations to cryptocurrencies, and obviously very enthusiastic about the space. And excited to have you guys at the conference. Anthony, you take it away. I'll pipe in with some questions later on.

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:04)
Well, Harrison, that will not be the most disparaging thing that he says. Okay? You have to understand there's a little bit of a rivalry here because John Darsie gets fan mail, okay? I'm just letting you know Brett, that irks me. So let's go right into it. You got to tell us a little bit more about your background. Where did you grow up? Where did you go to school? And did you think you'd be doing what you're doing today when you left high school Brett, that's what I want to know.

Brett Harrison: (03:31)
Sure. So I was born in New York city. I grew up in Long Island, New York.

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:37)
What town on Long Island?

Brett Harrison: (03:39)
Dix Hills.

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:40)
Okay. [crosstalk 00:03:41].

Brett Harrison: (03:40)
So near Huntington, Commack. Right in the middle.

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:42)
Yeah. All right. I'm from Port Washington. He's like a [crosstalk 00:03:46] at the Sands Point. He lives on a baronial estate, okay?

Brett Harrison: (03:50)
Fancy.

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:50)
He's incredible [crosstalk 00:03:51].

Brett Harrison: (03:51)
Very fancy.

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:51)
That's why he's wearing the Zuckerberg sweatshirt. [crosstalk 00:03:55] So you grew up in Dix Hills. Where'd you go to college?

Brett Harrison: (03:58)
I went to Harvard. Got my bachelor's and master's degree when I was at Harvard and then moved back to New York city to start my career at Jane Street. When I was in school, studying comp sci, I had no idea what I want to do with that. At the time, it wasn't obvious that with a computer science degree, you could just do anything.

Brett Harrison: (04:20)
Every single company needs computer programmers of some kind. I thought maybe I would be a teacher or just work for a company that I knew the name of like Google or Microsoft. But then I had a number of friends in my math and computer science courses who were getting all these internships at trading firms. And a couple of them had worked at Jane Street and they said, "Yeah, you really should try applying and check it out. It's a great place for math and CS and physics majors."

Brett Harrison: (04:46)
And I didn't know anything about finance, but sure, let's give it a shot. And then I interned there and I ended up at Jane Street and spent the majority of my career there. And that's sort of how I got my start into finance. But as for crypto, I really was not involved in crypto at all prior to FTX. Except for a short stint with crypto, with Jane street, when they were starting to get into the trading space towards the end of 2017. And mostly just spent my time building systems and managing teams for sort of the regulated financial instrument markets like equities, equity options, commodity derivatives, things like that.

Anthony Scaramucci: (05:31)
So FTX, perhaps the fastest growing crypto currency company in the world. For those people that are less familiar, tell our audience about the various lines of business, but also FTX US and how that all fits in together. And of course, you're the president of FTX US.

Brett Harrison: (05:54)
Yes. So FTX, the international exchange was started around two years ago as really an answer to the existing derivatives exchanges that existed. Where a bunch of bad stuff was happening. Customers were getting liquidated left, and right. There was no cross margining. So you couldn't use your Ethereum to collateralize your Bitcoin futures position.

Brett Harrison: (06:20)
It was a real pain to be able to operate any of these platforms. The interfaces were clunky, the risk systems weren't built by people who really understood trading. And so Sam Bankman-Fried founded FTX two years ago with no clear idea that this would be something that would be this huge. He thought, "Look, we know we could do a better job, but let's just give it a shot."

Brett Harrison: (06:43)
And organically, the growth has just been exponential over time. And FTX grew to somewhere between the fourth and second largest exchange in the world for trading crypto and crypto derivatives. Fast-forward to about a year and change ago when the company decided to make a US offering. Now in the US because of the existing regulatory and licensing regimes, there's a limit to what you can do without getting some certain kinds of licenses.

Brett Harrison: (07:13)
So in this case, the FTX US was started. It's a completely separate company that's run entirely within the US and it is currently a spot cryptocurrency exchange. So we offer 20 some odd pairs of spot crypto token pairs that you can trade. We also have some spot margin program. We have an NFT marketplace. We have a payments system whereby merchants can use FTX US to accept crypto as payments. And we're doing around $150 million of volume a day on the US platform. Up from around like a million dollars a day back in January. So we're growing super fast as well, but still climbing up the ladder to compete with some of the biggest competitors in the US space.

Anthony Scaramucci: (08:04)
From a regulatory standpoint, how does FTX US operate differently from FTX International?

Brett Harrison: (08:12)
So FTX US is a FinCEN regulated money services business. So we operate under that regime and we report to FinCEN to be able to operate a business, which all it really does at the end of the day is transfer money between different persons. So one person from Washington wants to buy crypto from eventually... So let's say someone in Mississippi, because those are the two orders that match up in the order book.

Brett Harrison: (08:43)
We're licensed to be able to transfer either virtual currency or fiat currency between those two parties. And so that's how we are regulated within the US. It also means that there's a lot of things that we can't do. So for example, there are certain spot tokens that might clearly be securities under the SEC definition. And because we're not a securities exchange, and they're not registered securities, you can't offer unregistered securities to unaccredited investors.

Brett Harrison: (09:14)
So we can't list certain things on the platform in the US because of those restrictions. So that's a big way in which sort of we operate differently from ftx.com. Whereas ftx.com have a wider array of spot tokens on the platform. They offer futures quarterly as perpetual futures, other kinds of prediction market contracts that we can't offer in the US yet.

Anthony Scaramucci: (09:38)
But you're getting there and you just...

Brett Harrison: (09:40)
We're getting there.

Anthony Scaramucci: (09:41)
Yeah, you're getting there. You just did a major transaction. Congratulations on that.

Brett Harrison: (09:45)
Thank you.

Anthony Scaramucci: (09:47)
I have to disclose that I was an early investor in LedgerX.

Brett Harrison: (09:50)
Sure.

Anthony Scaramucci: (09:50)
So I'm disclosing that now. And I know the company quite well. Tell us a little bit about LedgerX. Why you decided to buy LedgerX? And the regulatory landscape related to the CFTC. And congratulations on the deal by the way.

Brett Harrison: (10:05)
Yeah, thanks so much. No, it's really exciting. Maybe working backwards a little bit. So in the US if you want to be able to operate an exchange that allows people to trade things like futures and options, you have to have a license from the CFTC called the DCM license or a designated contract market license.

Brett Harrison: (10:26)
Alternatively, you can also have a SEF license, or swap execution facility, which allows you to operate a swaps trading platform. Which you can only operate between ECPs. Exchange contract participants, which are basically clients that have a certain net assets. Above 10 million in assets and a few other definitions. And there's one more important part of this, which is in order to actually clear derivative contracts, you have to do it at a DCO or a derivatives clearing organization, a clearing house.

Brett Harrison: (10:59)
And there are very few DCMs and DCOs in the United States. In fact, on the DCO side, there is only really about five. And LedgerX has all three of the above licenses. They're a DCM, a DCO, and a SEF. And they have quite an expansive scope of their [inaudible 00:11:19] license to be able to clear futures, options, options on futures, swaps.

Brett Harrison: (11:24)
And so for FTX, which has this two-year history of running a huge successful derivatives platform, and we want to bring this to the US in a regulated fashion by using the existing regime from the CFTC, it's a very attractive target for us to be able to work with them, and in conjunction with their licenses be able to have a path to offering derivatives to US retail and institutional customers.

Anthony Scaramucci: (11:50)
Okay. So it's exciting. The transaction's been announced. You're closing subject to regulatory approval, keeping my fingers crossed there. You have ambitions beyond crypto coins, including things like tokenised securities, equity derivative products that you're discussing, innovative commodity derivative products. Tell us about the future. Give us a sense for the wide ranging vision that you guys have for the firm.

Brett Harrison: (12:18)
Sure. So I think one thing that makes FTX special as a technology platform is that it wasn't built just for crypto. It's a quite generic platform for doing things like matching up buyers and sellers of any asset that you can attach a price to, of being able to be custodians of customer funds, of providing an app or a website where people can go and manage their experience. Whether they're a new person to crypto or they're an experienced professional investor or an institution.

Brett Harrison: (12:53)
And so because of that, we could really be an exchange for everything. We don't have to adjust be for crypto. And for example, using the LedgerX licenses, there's no reason why after offering, let's say Bitcoin options or Ethereum futures, we couldn't eventually offer, an S&P 500 future on our platform. Right now you can't open up a phone and trade a CME future without going through, let's say some other kind of broker, and there's a lot of expensive fees involved in that.

Brett Harrison: (13:27)
And you might not be able to see the order book because market data fees are expensive on those platforms too. We could completely turn that on its head. And so I think that there's a huge potential for us to get into these different markets. And then beyond derivatives, I think in terms of having an investment platform that really attracts a wide array of retail customers. What's next? There's crypto, there's derivatives. Well, I think a natural extension off that is playing US stocks and options, which are hugely popular for investors in the US and again, no reason why that can't be something else on our future roadmap.

Anthony Scaramucci: (14:06)
I mean, so very, very big ambitions. You're going to come up against some competition with some of the existing exchanges. So tell us how you're going to manage that.

Brett Harrison: (14:18)
Yeah, it's a tough climb because we're so new. FTX US has been around for a year. If you think about some of our biggest competitors in the crypto space, just the spot crypto markets, for example. Some of these companies have been around 8, 9, 10 years. They've become household names for trading crypto, and we need to do the same.

Brett Harrison: (14:38)
We need to be the name that everyone mentions first when they think about crypto. And so that's why we've also been making this huge marketing, branding sponsorship push in the US. Where we're partnering with Major League Baseball, or we named the Miami Heat arena, the FTX Arena. And it's to make a big splash in the US and get people to think of us as their household name for what they think to first, when they want to go download an app to trade crypto or anything else. And so the combination of having the superior technology, having a great user experience, having relatively lower fees, and also having this wide brand appeal, I think is going to help us eventually dominate in the US.

Anthony Scaramucci: (15:21)
Okay. So I mean, this is editorializing by me. So forgive me. I think the move to name the arena was absolutely brilliant. But I think the move to put the name on the umpires was absolutely more brilliant than the brilliance of naming the theater. I'm not flattering you. I just think it's absolutely brilliant because it creates this instant imprimatur. And you've raised yourself up to the level of the "major leagues". Literally Major League Baseball. So who came up with the idea? How did you decide to do it? It is a bold and sweeping idea, which I greatly admire. Give us some thought behind that. Help me with that.

Brett Harrison: (16:06)
You know, Sam, as you've seen from the dizzying growth, all of the acquisitions, all of these partnerships, he thinks up here. When I think everyone thinks like, "What's the next incremental step?" He's like, "How can I leapfrog everything?" So I think the story went down something like this. I'm not going to personally take credit for the arena naming. That was before my time joining the company.

Brett Harrison: (16:33)
The story went something like this. Sam basically went to the employees of the company and said, "What's the biggest thing we can do? Go out and figure it out. Everyone just go figure out what's the biggest, coolest deal that we can do to really get our name out there. I don't want to just buy Google Ads or Facebook Ads or do like one TV commercial. I want to figure out something that's really going to stick and have immediate widespread appeal."

Brett Harrison: (16:58)
And then someone came back and I think it was... Avi had some experience with the MBA and said, "We might be able to name a stadium." And Sam said, "Go do it." And then he did it. And that's sort of how it happened. The same thing, like what's a established brand in the US that everyone knows, and everyone loves and everyone trusts. How about a professional sports league? And then the conversations went on from there. And I'll tell you, I think the umpire patch worked out better than our wildest dreams, because it was hard to really visualize it until it actually happened.

Brett Harrison: (17:36)
But every YouTube clip of a break, either a strikeout or a home run starts with looking at the player in front of the umpire with the patch. And so we're getting pictures and videos from fans of FTX all over the world who are showing, "Hey, saw FTX at the game tonight." And so it just has worked out so well for getting our name out there.

Anthony Scaramucci: (17:59)
Well, I think it accomplished all of those things and more because you get the goodwill, you've burnished some goodwill from both of those places, which have more or less universality of goodwill. So I applaud you guys for that. We did a recent SALT talk with Anatoly Yakovenko.

Brett Harrison: (18:23)
Yeah.

Anthony Scaramucci: (18:24)
Okay. And so now... Look at me, because I'm scratching my nose. You know why I'm doing that? Because I pronounced his name right, and Darsie did not think I was going to pronounce the guy's name right. But I actually did, okay? He's the founder of Solana, as we both know. Okay? And we talked a little bit about Sam and FTX and simultaneously disrupting a centralized exchange model by building something called Serum. So tell us what Serum is and tell us why you guys are using Solana.

Brett Harrison: (18:56)
So DeFi is definitely... Has already taken a huge stake of the interest of the crypto world, but will take an even larger interest going forward. And in order for all of the various DeFi applications to exist and really scale, you need a layer-1 blockchain where you can achieve the number of transactions per second on that blockchain, that a real-world scalable app might achieve.

Brett Harrison: (19:24)
So if you think about, if you wanted to build Twitter on a blockchain, how many tweets and likes and replies and DMs are being sent per second. And can a blockchain keep up with that? If you have an order book where you have every order and cancel and trade message happening on the blockchain, can a blockchain keep up with that? And right now, for things like Ethereum and Bitcoin, those can support tens, maybe hundreds of transactions per second.

Brett Harrison: (19:54)
That's not going to scale if you have thousands or tens of thousands of apps with potentially hundreds of millions of users on those apps. And Solana was one of the few chains that FTX really saw that has that capability now, and can have that potential to scale in the future. And so it just made sense that look, if we're going to help the Serum company build this decentralized exchange, well, it's got to be on something that we know is going to work from the beginning.

Brett Harrison: (20:27)
If we put it on something, that's not something like Solana, it's going to be doomed from the start. And so that's how we ended up partnering so much with Solana and there's such exciting things happening there.

Anthony Scaramucci: (20:39)
Is there opportunities to use other coins and create new Serums or are you locked into Solano and Serum or because of your exchange ambidexterity and the diversity of what you're doing, will you do other things like Serum for other coins?

Brett Harrison: (21:00)
So what's really cool about the Solana ecosystem, and I guess in general about DeFi is that all of these apps that are all in the Solana blockchain are composable. So for example, there's another project on Solana called Raydium and Raydium is like a spot pool. And that Raydium is built on top of Serum, but Raydium has their own coin. You can stake that coin to receive yields, but it basically builds on top of something that's an order book.

Brett Harrison: (21:30)
And the order book itself is built on this layer-1 blockchain. And so what you see in the Solana ecosystem is this explosion of different apps that are being created because each one can take whatever the other ones had built, and use those as one components. And then they can have their own project, their own coin, their own ecosystem, their own user interface. And so what's really cool about this is you're not locked into some monolithic system that you have to use all of it or none of it. You can [inaudible 00:21:57] pick and choose which aspects of the systems on the blockchain that you want to use for your app.

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:03)
Okay. So it sounds like it's Solana centric then because you like the versatility of Solana. Is that fair to say?

Brett Harrison: (22:11)
I think that [crosstalk 00:22:12] when we were thinking about DeFi, when we want to partner with someone in the DeFi space, we're pretty much... We're choosing Solana because of it's capabilities right now.

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:22)
Okay. But you're open-minded to others or [crosstalk 00:22:25].

Brett Harrison: (22:25)
Yeah, absolutely.

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:26)
[crosstalk 00:22:26] I heard a quote from him saying that we're at war, meaning there's a war for real estate in the digital space. And there's going to be a few winners and lots of losers. So you're open to others, or are you sort of-

Brett Harrison: (22:38)
I think there's definitely a room for a couple. I don't think there's room for 50. And what you see is some of these blockchains that they're kind of either copies of another one and they're not really adding much new to the space, or they're not as well designed as something like Solana. And so I think, you're going to see a couple over time that are going to stick around.

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:56)
All right. Sounds good. I have a couple more questions. I know Mr. Darsie is dying to ask you questions. It's [crosstalk 00:23:03].

John Darsie: (23:03)
Chomping at the bit.

Anthony Scaramucci: (23:04)
He's going to try to upstage me with his non baby boomer intellect. All of this millennial stuff. He thinks he's cutting edge with his hoodie, but let's go to the NFT and gaming area.

Brett Harrison: (23:16)
Yeah.

Anthony Scaramucci: (23:18)
Tell us what you're doing there. I know you've got some things powered by Serum there, also decentralized. What's the future look like there?

Brett Harrison: (23:27)
So the NFT space is really hot right now. And first of all, just in general, people are coming into this space, looking for a way to participate in the crypto ecosystem, but in a way that's familiar and friendly. And I think that user-friendliness of NFTs is really helping draw people into this.

Brett Harrison: (23:47)
It's something that a lot of people can vibe with, "Okay. It's a collectible. It's something that is a really cool piece of art and it's limited. And I would like to own it." That's sort of an experience that is very familiar to people. And so I think more and more people are coming into DeFi by way of NFTs. Now, specifically Solana NFTs have really started to come on the scene in the last couple of weeks even. And we're seeing such interest. A pack of 10,000 single, first edition NFTs selling out in 30 seconds. And so what we at FTX are looking to do is-

Anthony Scaramucci: (24:28)
Should I buy a Degenerate Ape?

Brett Harrison: (24:30)
Well, buying it a couple of weeks ago would have been a very good trade. You would have made a 1000% on it. Right now, I think the floor on a Degen Ape is a 100 SOL. So around $10,000 or so.

John Darsie: (24:46)
Yeah, it's getting more expensive every second Brett by the way.

Brett Harrison: (24:49)
Every second. If you keep refreshing, it gets even more expensive. But we would love to be the secondary marketplace for NFTs like Degen Apes. And so we're doing some hard work in the background as we speak to help build out our NFT platform to be a great place for not just Solana, but also Ethereum based NFTs for people to resell.

Anthony Scaramucci: (25:14)
Listen, I think what you guys are doing is amazing and fascinating. What are the next projects or types of acquisitions you have in your sights for FTX US?

Brett Harrison: (25:28)
Yeah. It's hard to say for sure. Since the raise, we certainly get a lot of opportunities for potential acquisitions. There's a lot that comes across our desk and we're looking for a couple of different categories of things that we might want to look at for a potential acquisition. So one is ways of achieving user acquisition for our retail platform faster.

Brett Harrison: (25:54)
So for example Blockfolio, which was the first major FTX acquisition about a year ago. Was one of those plays. They have six, seven million users.

Anthony Scaramucci: (26:03)
Yeah, not to interrupt you, but just because we have a lot of young [inaudible 00:26:05], what is Blockfolio in your words?

Brett Harrison: (26:07)
Sure.

Anthony Scaramucci: (26:08)
Just so that we can...

Brett Harrison: (26:08)
So Blockfolio was primarily an app for tracking crypto trades and your crypto portfolio. It was one of the first of its kind and one of the best. And when FTX acquired Blockfolio, we added trading to that app that was powered by FTX and FTX US. So the play there was for all these people who are constantly checking their app all the time, looking at the prices, let's give them a way of buying Bitcoin, of selling ETH. But let's do it in a way that is extremely user-friendly. That's really meant for that person who downloaded the app for the first time.

Brett Harrison: (26:43)
They don't even know what a Bitcoin is. Let's help them. Let's guide them through the process. So I think we're on the hunt for similar kinds of acquisitions that can help get users onto FTX US. And then I think licenses, and the sort of regulatory side of things is another part of our acquisition target. So LedgerX was an obvious one in hindsight now, great way for us to maybe get into derivatives in the US faster than if we were to apply for those licenses from scratch.

Brett Harrison: (27:13)
And there may be other such companies that allow us to do new business lines that this target company has been able to get those licenses that we would need.

Anthony Scaramucci: (27:25)
All right. Well, I'm going to turn it over to John Darsie. I think what you guys have done is extraordinary. I applaud your marketing prowess.

Brett Harrison: (27:34)
Thank you.

Anthony Scaramucci: (27:35)
I would like to get my house named after FTX. So I'm going to be talking to you guys about it later in the program.

Brett Harrison: (27:41)
FTX Scaramucci house.

Anthony Scaramucci: (27:42)
Yeah. Forget Scaramucci. That name, forget about it. We're just going to go with the FTX, okay? And we'll be talking about that naming ceremony later, but in the meantime, I'm going to turn it over to John Darsie.

Brett Harrison: (27:53)
Sure.

Anthony Scaramucci: (27:54)
And congratulations on everything you've done, Brett. I'm very impressed.

Brett Harrison: (27:57)
Thank you.

John Darsie: (27:58)
Yeah, Brett, again, we're super excited about LedgerX's merger with FTX. We think it's a match made in heaven. When you guys started talking, it was just again, a great fit that I think will supercharge the growth that you guys organically have already achieved. So congratulations on that. But I want to talk about your background for a second.

John Darsie: (28:17)
You've talked about how you have a computer science background, both your bachelor's and your master's at Harvard. You went into the finance world. You were at Jane Street, you were at Citadel. So you sort of sit on both sides of the equation, where a lot of things going on in crypto today are being driven by engineering or computer science types, with less understanding of the financial world, less understanding of the regulatory environment. How do you think that sort of dichotomy of your experience where you've lived the computer science education and experience, but also had industry experience. How do you think that's helped you be an effective leader for FTX US?

Brett Harrison: (28:55)
Sure. So it's interesting seeing the differences in the crypto space and the traditional finance space. I'd spent 12 years of my life inside of these highly successful, but really secretive firms. Where they're very hyper competitive. Always looking to sort of outsmart their cohorts. And compare that to crypto, where in the crypto world, everyone is talking about what they're doing.

Brett Harrison: (29:26)
There's a lot of advertising. People are on Twitter chatting with each other directly about problems they're having with the platform. And people are investing in each other's companies, even Coinbase is an investor in FTX, even though they're our competitors. The kind of cooperation and openness is very, very different. And I think a lot of that has to do with people with no bias of how the traditional finance system has worked for all these decades.

Brett Harrison: (29:54)
Engineers who are used to more open source cultures coming in, creating companies as if they're just tech companies, even though they're so deeply rooted within finance. And I think that for me, getting to sort of be a software engineer in crypto, but also knowing what kinds of things have made traditional finance successful. How do you build a scalable system that allows for millions of users and billions of transactions, for example. There's a lot of hard burns, lessons from building those kinds of systems at a place like Jane Street that transfer over, I think pretty well to FTX and other exchanges like us.

John Darsie: (30:39)
Right. And one of the things we talked about with Anatoly when we had him on our SALT talk was, it's sort of what Anthony alluded to earlier is that you guys are building the fastest growing, if not... One of the fastest growing, if not the fastest growing exchange globally in the US. A centralized exchange where you're obviously abiding by all regulatory frameworks that are in place, the LedgerX acquisition was another way for you guys to obtain licenses, allow you to operate in a highly regulated environment.

John Darsie: (31:05)
But at the same time, you're investing in Serum, a decentralized exchange that has maybe greater ambitions for the future, and also is disrupting the same businesses that you guys are building from a centralized perspective. So how do you balance sort of that short-term perspective of, "Okay, we have to live inside of the box that we have to in the United States and other regulated environments." But also sort of taking that ambitious moonshot at the future of re-imagining the financial system and the regulatory framework.

Brett Harrison: (31:35)
So I think that centralized finance and decentralized finance will co-exist and continue to coexist even in the long run. And I think there's sort of two arguments behind that. There's sort of like a physics argument, and then there's a regulatory argument.

Brett Harrison: (31:51)
So the physics argument is something like, traditional finance firms, which many of which are institutions that trade on FTX US are looking for low latency, high throughput, high transactions per second. And in the DeFi world, in order to validate a transaction, it basically needs to hit all of these different validators that could be anywhere in the world.

Brett Harrison: (32:14)
So that sort of puts a theoretical lower bound on how fast a single transaction can occur. It's basically the time it takes light to go around the Earth once. So on the order of a hundredish milliseconds. But for something like the NASDAQ exchange, you can have a single transaction occur in single digit microseconds, sometimes hundreds of nanoseconds.

Brett Harrison: (32:36)
So they are on complete different orders of magnitude. And I think there will always be a place for large liquidity providers to want to be on platforms that allow for this very low latency. The second is that even as DeFi continues to grow, I think we're going to find that the regulatory agencies are going to catch up to the growth of DeFi. And they're going to want to say, "Look, this is great. And it's an awesome innovation. We want to be able to support it, but only if we can make sure we know who's actually interacting with this. We're making sure there's no money laundering occurring on the platform. Make sure people aren't being scammed and their money stolen and everything else."

Brett Harrison: (33:16)
And I think that there's going to be a potential for CeFi and DeFi to work with each other where centralized exchanges like us could be the on-ramp into DeFi. We're the player that knows how to do AML KYC for millions of customers. We're a place where people can safely store their funds like a bank, but then we can help provide sort of a gateway into DeFi from that as a portal. So that's sort of how I see these two things coexisting over time, and I think they will help build each other up.

John Darsie: (33:47)
Yeah. And to your point, the SEC recently... Or there was a report in the Wall Street Journal about the SEC investigating Uniswap, which is the largest DeFi exchange, for how investors are using the platform, how the platform is marketed. Probably tackling some of the same questions that you just talked about. Sort of the way smart people in the industry that understand regulation have explained it to me is that they think regulators will continue to crack down aggressively on the real nefarious players in the space, because there's certainly unscrupulous players in crypto.

John Darsie: (34:18)
The same way there is in any industry. And they'll slap other people on the wrist just to make sure that people are staying within the boundaries that the SEC wants to create. Do you think that's an accurate depiction of it?

Brett Harrison: (34:29)
Yeah, I think that's right.

John Darsie: (34:33)
Anthony talked about the NFT space and gaming. I alluded earlier to Aurory, which is the Aurory Project, which is a game involving NFTs powered by Serum that Anthony was referencing. There's also Star Atlas, which we talked to Anatoly about, that you guys are supporting with your exchanges. Could you explain again for the people on these talks that are less familiar with what is an NFT powered sort of play to earn type game? What does that look like and why is that so transformative?

Brett Harrison: (35:02)
Sure. So if you think about a typical video game with some kind of in game economy. There might be something like gems or gold, and you need those gems or bold to be able to perform actions within that game. And sometimes you can trade those gyms or gold within the game, but then that never really leaves the virtual world or hasn't prior to the advent of blockchain technology.

Brett Harrison: (35:32)
So what NFTs and blockchain in general have allowed games to do is for these sort of in-game currencies to sort of escape the game and actually be something that people can trade and buy and sell peer-to-peer. So an example is, the most interesting current day example of this is Axie Infinity. Which is this huge growing forest where people are actually quitting their jobs in the Philippines to go play Axie Infinity, because they can earn more per hour playing Axie Infinity than their previous jobs.

Brett Harrison: (36:07)
And so with that they breed these little monsters called Axies, but the Axies themselves are NFTs. They're tokens, like virtual currencies, but they're only sort of one of a kind tokens. And they can use them and trade them peer to peer with other people, sell them for profit, buy them, try to train them up, sell them again for profit. And so NFT has allowed for games to sort of interact with the real world economy in this sort of safe, [inaudible 00:36:37] way that has never really existed before.

John Darsie: (36:41)
I feel like Pokemon is screaming out for a massive multiplayer NFT driven gaming system. I mean, that's something that I grew up watching. [crosstalk 00:36:49]

Brett Harrison: (36:49)
I think that would be huge. I feel like it's only a matter of time.

John Darsie: (36:52)
Yeah. I feel like it's tailor made for it. And as a father of four, I have a one month old. I don't have enough time to game maybe the way I did when I was younger, but these games seem fascinating. It seems like we're just scratching the surface of... You read books like Ready Player One. I talked to Anatoly about this, and it's like, you could see that becoming a reality where these things are so fascinating and you create digital economies.

John Darsie: (37:15)
Anatoly was talking about how, when he was younger, he played World of Warcraft and used to mail physical checks to people to buy their goods and services on their game.

Brett Harrison: (37:23)
[crosstalk 00:37:23].

John Darsie: (37:23)
And this is just the next iteration of that, obviously in a much more seamless manner and scalable manner. But FTX is very focused on climate sustainability, ESG if you will of crypto and also just philanthropy generally. I know Sam's passionate about that. It's a value set that he's pushed down through the organization.

John Darsie: (37:43)
Crypto critics, one of the accusations they like to go to is that Bitcoin is where it starts, about Bitcoin mining and lack of sustainability. And there's other criticisms of crypto that it doesn't really serve a purpose in society while also having a large carbon footprint. First of all, how do you analyze those criticisms? And also how does that ESG mindset that Sam has adopted pervade the way you operate your business and the way you guys think about the future?

Brett Harrison: (38:10)
Sure. So I'll break that down into a couple of different parts. So the first is...

John Darsie: (38:14)
[crosstalk 00:38:14] few questions you [crosstalk 00:38:15] unpack.

Brett Harrison: (38:15)
Yeah. So is the industry worth it, is sort of a hard philosophical question. I think if you believe in markets and you believe that the markets will speak for themselves, a multi-trillion dollar industry doesn't appear out of nowhere without some use. And I think we're seeing so many different use cases of the technology and so much promise for that technology that it's hard to ignore. It's hard at this point, after so many years of criticism or skepticism to think that this is going away.

Brett Harrison: (38:51)
That this is somehow not a real value add to society. In terms of the actual energy usage, it's true that Bitcoin in particular, being a proof of work type validation scheme for its blockchain uses a lot of energy. But it's also really interesting in that counter-intuitively, it also helps prop up the renewable energy industry.

Brett Harrison: (39:20)
So one major problem with renewables is that they're typically unpredictable. If you want to use wind or solar power, how much wind or solar are you going to get per day? Well, it sort of depends on cloud cover and the weather. And what happens if you want to power a city with wind or solar? You need to always produce enough to be able to power the whole city in the worst case. But what if you overproduce? If you overproduce that energy would typically get wasted, but with Bitcoin mining, what Bitcoin miners are doing is they can easily move their business to the place around the world where energy is the cheapest, and there's a surplus of energy.

Brett Harrison: (39:54)
And so for example, if there's a surplus of wind energy in some particular country, the Bitcoin miners can focus on mining Bitcoin in that particular location and in doing so, they sort of subsidize that energy and that company to be able to produce that energy in excess of what they would normally have to do.

Brett Harrison: (40:12)
And so it's a little bit counterintuitive, but I actually think Bitcoin is helping the renewable energy industry and such a large percentage of Bitcoin mining is done on renewable sources of energy. And finally, I think in general, if people are concerned about their energy uses, not just for mining Bitcoin, but for running any industry that requires electricity.

Brett Harrison: (40:34)
How about, how many servers does Google have to run to run Google? A lot. We should think about how we can offset that energy usage. And so FTX in particular has done a lot of research into different kinds of carbon offsets and carbon offsetting programs and have already put in millions of dollars into programs to be able to offset FTX's specific usage energy for its businesses.

Brett Harrison: (40:58)
I think other others should do the same. And I think hopefully the mindset of Sam and the company and effective altruism in general is helping set a very positive example for how a company can be in a hyper-growth mode, can raise $900 million, but can still use money to give back and contribute positively back to society.

John Darsie: (41:20)
Yeah. And at SkyBridge, we have a significant amount of money invested in Bitcoin, also in Ethereum. And we're doing a lot more in the space. We'll probably have more down the pipeline from that, but we bought carbon credits to offset our Bitcoin ownership for that exact reason. I think, inspired by people like Sam, ignoring a problem and to call the carbon footprint of Bitcoin a problem, yeah it does use a lot of energy as you said, it's also incentivizing the build-out of renewables.

John Darsie: (41:48)
But I also think Sam is great. And you guys, as an organization are great in acknowledging the fact that we can get better. We can do things to offset the carbon footprint. We can make the industry more sustainable. And I think just shooting down those problems and saying they don't exist is not helpful to anybody.

John Darsie: (42:04)
And I definitely applaud what you guys are doing. What others in the industry are doing to continue to move it forward from a sustainability standpoint. And the growth of things like Solana, that's a really efficient proof of stake, proof of history oriented blockchains, I think is a positive step as well.

John Darsie: (42:20)
Last question I have for you is around the Pyth Network. So the Pyth Network, to quote their website, is a decentralized cross chain market of verifiable data from high quality nodes to any smart contract anywhere. It's basically trying to take a very fractured marketplace of data that is crypto, that in the early days of crypto, a lot of people have made a lot of money exploiting sort of arbitrage opportunities across boundaries and across different markets. You might know a couple of those types of people. But it's trying to make that market more efficient and trying to plug into high quality nodes, as I just read. Could you explain more in depth? What is the Pyth Network? Why is it so important to create trustworthy sort of nodes of data that people can operate off of?

Brett Harrison: (43:04)
Sure. So backing up just a little bit. So for anyone who works in traditional finance, you sort of know that the beginning and end of any project that you want to build, any brokerage you need to build, any trading firm is having good market data. And there's a couple of things you might mean when you say market data. It could be the top bid and ask price on an exchange in an order book, it could be the last trades that have occurred in the stock, let's say. It could be the full order book. It could be every single bid in the book, every single offer in the book. Most exchanges charge enormous amounts of money to be able to get this data. And so it's a very high barrier to entry just to even get your hands on good, reliable, low latency, high fidelity data.

Brett Harrison: (43:52)
Crypto has sort of done something completely different. And again, I think maybe this was back to our earlier conversation, having to do a lot with the fact that software developers with this sort of open source mindset built these systems. But most crypto market data is free. You can go on FTX US and start listening to the full order by order depth for every symbol for free.

Brett Harrison: (44:13)
And in order for us to have reliable blockchain applications, DeFi applications on blockchains like Solana, we're going to need good market data, and it needs to be reliable, and it needs to work across exchange. It needs to have people validating that it's correct and making sure it's kept up to date. So that every time someone wants to build an application with market data, they don't have to start from scratch. They don't have to get their own market data, they don't have to store it. They don't have to timestamp it. They don't have to make sure they're getting it in the right order and it's fast. They can rely on someone else.

Brett Harrison: (44:44)
And so what Pyth Network has been able to do is not just build the technology to enable market data to be published onto the blockchain for use in things like smart contracts, but they've gotten on board this amazing network of huge tier one institutions. So you think about like, there's Jump Trading, there's HRT, Hudson River Trading, Jane Street, all of these [crosstalk 00:45:11]. Yes.

John Darsie: (45:11)
[crosstalk 00:45:11] be speaking alongside Ari Rubinstein at SALT, which we're looking forward to.

Brett Harrison: (45:14)
Yeah. And they've all partnered to say, "You know what? We want to be part of the next wave of innovation. We want to be able to contribute some of our internal proprietary technology to improving the DeFi space by making sure that there's good, reliable market data." And so it's not just the technology itself, it's the sort of this meta thing that's happened, which is getting all of these very traditional firms on board with helping support the future of DeFi that makes Pyth pretty exciting.

John Darsie: (45:41)
Well, we're looking forward to hearing more about that on that panel that I mentioned. I believe you're speaking Tuesday, September 14th. The conference is September 13th to the 15th. Sam is speaking on Monday and we're excited to hear that he's coming in person and congratulations again on the LedgerX transaction.

John Darsie: (45:56)
I think people are just learning about LedgerX. It's sort of a, as you mentioned, Zach is a great guy, very smart. Operates a little more quietly than some other players in the space, but a great company that's done really innovative things in the way they've attacked the regulatory regime. To see you guys married together and growing together with the rocket fuel, that is everything in FTX. We're really excited about that. So, Brett, thanks so much for coming on. Anthony, have a final word for Brett before we let him go.

Anthony Scaramucci: (46:22)
I'm also excited, Brett, but I'm disappointed that it's an all cash deal. I just have to register that as a very tiny minority shareholder. I don't know what was wrong with these guys in that [inaudible 00:46:33] table that they needed all cash. I want as much FTX as I could possibly own.

Anthony Scaramucci: (46:38)
So anyway, we'll have to have that conversation when we're not being recorded on a SALT Talk, but in all seriousness, I am grateful for you coming on and we are looking forward to having you guys and introducing you to a broad group of our delegates. And I'm sure there's going to be a lot of exciting things that happen there as well. And I look forward to seeing you soon.

Brett Harrison: (46:59)
Yeah. Thank you both so much. Looking forward to the conference.

John Darsie: (46:59)
And thank you again, Brett, and thank you everybody for tuning into today's SALT Talk with Brett Harrison, the president of FTX US, that you might've seen either in the Miami Heat arena or on an umpire shirt. I know it's been ubiquitous when I see baseball clips as well. I think the ROI on that as Brett alluded to has been extremely high.

John Darsie: (47:21)
But on behalf of the Anthony and the entire SALT team, thank you everybody for tuning in. Reminder, you can access all of our episodes on our website on demand, and on our YouTube channel, which is called SALT Tube. Our website is salt.org/talks to access all of our SALT talks. We're also on social media. Twitter is where we're most active at SALT conference. And again, we're a few days away here from the SALT conference in New York.

John Darsie: (47:43)
If you'd like to come hear Brett, come hear Sam speak, we'd love to have you there. We have a few tickets remaining. So definitely sign up at salt.org. But again, on behalf of Anthony and the entire SALT team, this is John Darsie signing off from SALT Talks for today. We hope to see you back here again soon.

Anatoly Yakovenko: Building Better Blockchains | SALT Talks #252

“[Proof-of-stake and proof-of-work] are equally secure from a consumer’s perspective, but are fundamentally two sides of the same coin. Proof of stake doesn’t require the energy, but requires a lot more software complexity.”

Anatoly Yakovenko is the creator of Solana. In this episode, he tells the story of Solana’s founding and recent exponential growth. He explains some of the company’s key distinctions from other blockchain protocols, particularly the differences between proof-of-work and proof-of-stake. Yakovenko further details Solana’s approach to security protection and optimizing for speed and high performance. He lays out some of the next steps for the company and highlights the game-changing nature of two Solana-powered companies: Serum and Star Atlas.

Powered by RedCircle

 

MODERATOR

SPEAKER

Headshot - Yakovenko, Anatoly - Cropped.jpeg

Anatoly Yakovenko

Founder & Chief Executive Officer

Solana

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 – Intro & background

4:15 – Creating Solana

6:49 – Proof-of-stake vs. proof-of-work

9:50 – Crypto maximalists

12:26 – Solana, FTX and a new decentralized exchange Serum

14:52 – Solana’s path to validation

17:00 – Ethereum vs. Solana

20:20 – NFT project: Degenerate Apes

23:00 – Settlement vs. execution

26:32 – Nakamoto coefficient

32:15 – 2018 crypto pullback

34:05 – Importance of key custody

38:30 – Crypto gaming and Star Atlas

41:45 – What’s next for Solana

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie: (00:11)
Hello everyone, and welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is John Darsie. I'm the managing director of SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance, technology and public policy. SALT Talks are a digital interview series that we started in 2020 with leading investors, creators and thinkers. Our goal on these talks is the same as our goal at our SALT Conferences, which we're excited to resume here in September, of 2021, and to have our guests participating on an exciting panel at that event.

John Darsie: (00:43)
Our goal is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. This summer, it's Solana's summer. There's no bigger idea than the growth of Web 3.0 and decentralized finance. We're very excited to bring you a special SALT Talk with Anatoly Yakovenko of Solana. Anatoly is the creator of Solana. He led development of operating systems at Qualcomm for more than a decade, distributed systems at Mesosphere and compression at Dropbox. He holds two patents for high-performance operating systems protocols, was a core kernel developer for BREW, which powered every CDMA flip phone, and led development of the tech that made Project Tango AR/VR possible on Qualcomm phones.

John Darsie: (01:30)
Hosting today's SALT Talk is Anthony Scaramucci, who's the founder and managing partner of Skybridge Capital, which is a global alternative investment firm. It was the first fund to funds and first registered '40 Act fund to make direct allocations into the crypto space, so we'd like to think we know a few things about crypto, but certainly not anywhere near the level of our great guest today. Anatoly, we're excited to have you. With that, I'll turn it over to Anthony to drive the majority of the interview.

Anthony Scaramucci: (01:55)
Before we got started recording, I said to Anatoly his backdrop makes him look like he's coming in from the future. That is more or less the truth about your life, Anatoly. You're a hardcore engineer. You spent most of your career at Qualcomm. Tell us more about your background that led you to build Solana.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (02:18)
I'm an engineer by trade. I went to the University of Illinois. Started really, my engineering career there at a startup with some friends. I was trying to build voiceover IP phones. This was back in 2001-2002, and saw the dot com crash as a student, then. At that time, my advisors were telling me that computer science would not be a good career choice. Ended up in San Diego, working for Qualcomm and started really working on optimizations, all things making software faster, from day one. Really, my experience there, I got to see the mobile revolution.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (03:00)
If you guys remember, phones in 2003 were not like the supercomputers that we hold in our hands today. That transition happened over a decade and really powered by the amazing people at Qualcomm, TS&C, across all the fabrication, the entire fabrication industry and mobile chips. That was a huge 10 million-person effort around the world to make that possible. I was working in a small piece of it, ready high-performance firmware, but seeing that transition really showed the power of Moore's Law to me, and this is something that has been like, exponentials have really been fast from far away. 20 years is a 1,000 X improvement.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (03:48)
In the moment right now, it's going to take years to see a doubling in performance. And that may seem really slow.

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:57)
You talk about the epiphany that you had and you were talking about the construction of an arrow of time and what you set out to do with Solana. Explain what that means to our audience.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (04:13)
Yeah, there's an interesting problem in mathematics because there is no clear definition of time. Einstein's equations work in both directions, forwards and backwards. And we take this for granted, as engineers. You look at something like second generation cellular networks, they wear these things called time division multiple access networks. It literally means that you have a source of time that tells which cellphone, which tower has the right to transmit over a certain frequency. And that's how all these networks get coordinated and folks can then transmit information to a large number of people across the same channel, across the same shared channel that is rotated through time.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (04:58)
This was the first thing the engineers thought of when they started building these things. That's really hard to pull off in crypto blockchain because this new kind of technology is built with very different trust assumptions. There is no AT&T. There is no FCC, there is no central authority that says what time it is, or who gets to [inaudible 00:05:22] a block, or who gets to be what part of the network. And that's a really tough, challenging problem. And this epiphany that I had once I realized there's a way to construct a source of time that doesn't depend a central authority, doesn't depend on AT&T or anything like that, or FCC.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (05:40)
Then we can start building the same level of high performance wireless optimizations but not applied to blockchain, it would apply to crypto.

Anthony Scaramucci: (05:49)
So I'm going to put it this way because I think it's appropriate, part of your genius is taking ideas from your life experience and watching them unfold in cellular technology and then applying them to blockchain. So Steve Jobs, I want you to react to this. Steve Jobs once said that genius is a remix of ideas and seeing things on parallel planes that somehow connect. Is that true in your case?

Anatoly Yakovenko: (06:20)
100%. I'm standing on the shoulders of giants. That all the stuff that we're doing; the algorithms were in the 4,000 in the '50s and '60s. The engineering was done in the '70s and '80s and now we get to apply it to these new emerging technologies over and over as engineers. So we get to reuse the experience and brilliance of all these amazing people that came before us, for sure.

Anthony Scaramucci: (06:48)
So there's a difference between proof-of-stake and proof-of-work. So there are many listeners here that don't know the difference. If you could describe what the difference is between proof-of-stake and proof-of-work.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (07:02)
Oh, that's a tough question. It's hard to describe because the problem is hard to explain. It's how do you trust anybody on the internet? How do you know that when you make a poll on Twitter and you say you think that omelets are the best breakfast, that you see those votes that actually come from people instead of bots. That's a tough problem. Proof-of-work is a way to solve it by forcing every vote to contain a proof that some amount of electricity was spent to generate it. So somebody somewhere had to go and burn some energy to do it.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (07:40)
That's how Nakamoto Consensus or bitcoin and Ethereum prepare networking. Most of the other major currencies work, but this is buy the energy in the [inaudible 00:07:54]. So it costs a lot of money to do this process because you have to go pay somebody for the electricity to go generate those groups. I'll say [crosstalk 00:08:05]-

Anthony Scaramucci: (08:05)
So proof-of-stake is better than proof-of-work?

Anatoly Yakovenko: (08:11)
It's different. So the cool thing about proof-of-work is that it is real physics. It is real electricity. There's no way for somebody to fake it. And the way that proof-of-stake works is that you realize on a common agreement on what the network is and then a way to split the way to those votes and transfer those votes cryptographically. So equally secure from a consumer's perspective, but fundamentally they're kind of two sides to the same coin. But different sides.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (08:47)
Proof-of-stake doesn't require the imaging, but requires a lot more software complexity, a lot more infrastructure. I think it takes more resources, brain resources to run. You've got to spend a lot more time making sure that the keys are secure, that there's no way for a package to go [inaudible 00:09:08] them and a bunch of other stuff.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (09:10)
Before working [inaudible 00:09:10], it was in a lot of ways kind of much, much simpler. It's like a motorcycle gas motor, there's two cylinders in it, you pour the gas in, it runs, versus something like a Tesla where it's a much more complicated system, but much more efficient.

Anthony Scaramucci: (09:31)
Okay. I think you did a great job explaining that. There's a lot of maximal-ism and tribalism in bitcoin. Some people are bitcoin Maximalists, some people are Solana Maximalists, others are Ether Maximalists. What do these guys get wrong, if anything? Or, are they right and should everybody be a Solana Maximalist?

Anatoly Yakovenko: (09:48)
So I've seen this as an emergent technology, over and over. I remember when people were fighting over Linux file systems. They were Maximalists who believed that a certain kind of file system for your Linux distribution was better than anything else. And it's, I think this comes from when you're building something really complicated, like a personal computer, like where the idea is much bigger than the technology and the technology is so complex and you start to rely on your gut feel of what is going to bring about a change in the world?

Anatoly Yakovenko: (10:25)
Is it going to Apple and the historically designed thing? And I become an Apple fanboy, an Apple Maximalist. Is it going to become Linux and opensource community, or is it going to be Microsoft that's a vertically integrated company with a great founder? It's really tough to make those decisions in a very objective way and that's, I think, the source of and nexus of it. I think in some ways, it's just part of the growth process of any new, emerging, transformative technology.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (10:55)
If we thought that crypto was going to be a fad, we wouldn't have [inaudible 00:11:02]. It would just go away and peter off. But because it's such an idea that is so big and so much bigger than anything else, that I think this is where it comes from. When people really try to grasp it and try to understand it, it fit all in your head but it's so big, that it's pretty hard to do.

Anthony Scaramucci: (11:21)
All right. Well, you're doing a great job, so I want to keep going here. And I hope you don't mind the complexity of these questions, but I think it's important for our listeners because you're at the forefront of something. They're watching something emerge and prosper and grow exponentially and I think learning from you as the founder, I think, is super important. It's sort of like we're right here at the inception.

Anthony Scaramucci: (11:44)
Let's talk about Sam Bankman-Fried, a favorite of yours and a favorite of mine, and also Sam Darsie's. Sam is the CEO and founder of FTX. He's really building the first, in my opinion, I think he has the capability at least of building the industry standard, the Microsoft, the Tesla, the Google of crypto with FTX. So he's a brilliant young man. He decided to build FTX decentralized exchange known as Serum, on top of Solana. Now, he's pretty impressive, so how did you convince him to pick Solana and why do you think he picked Solana.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (12:25)
So yeah, we had our first conversation literally a couple of weeks after we launched. And that was a year and a half ago, not even that long ago. Less than a year and a half ago. And we showed him this demo where it's a very simple page, we load it and he starts messing with keys and we see cryptocurrency transactions fired off and get confirmed as fast as he can type. So every keystroke was generating a transaction and when you compare that to something like Ethereum or even the competitors that have launched since, today, there's a stark difference between the user experience of dealing with this network with then, versus what you see now.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (13:09)
And that's really what set off the light bulbs in their head, in Sam's head and their engineers. And really from the engineering team came this drive that's still the best version of a decentralized exchange. We know how to build the best version of a centralized exchange. Let's do the same, and now it's possible. Which is something that they've been wanting to do internally for a very long time. So they incubated this project Serum, and now it's got a life of its own. There's these independent developers that are building on it, working on next versions of it.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (13:43)
It's really cool to have somebody like Sam that has a centralized service to commit to building something that could disrupt them, like fully commit to it. How often do you see that? I think Steve Jobs and I think how the iPad and iPhone disrupted their iPod sales, which is a big outsider revenue for them. Fully commit to something, a new product line that was risky but totally disruptive to the entire industry. So Sam as a person and as a founder, as a CEO definitely deserves a lot of respect for that.

Anthony Scaramucci: (14:24)
I am admirer of his and yours, but I'm also an admirer of Andreessen Horowitz. Ben Horowitz spoke at our event in 2019, before the pandemic. After your third hackathon this past May, A16Z became enthusiastic about Solana and they began the process of validating and investing in Solana. Tell us about that experience.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (14:53)
We were in Silicon Valley, we talked to them a bunch of times and the biggest question was that, is it possible to build a new ecosystem that has not really suffered from Ethereum? A whole new set of applications, new operating system, new ways for developers to build these things. That was a big risky question. Is there going to be developer to option? And what we saw over the year since we launched is that there's a large portion of devs that are ready to go build different kinds of tools. They see these technologies as tech stacks, as they should.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (15:32)
As an engineer said when they look at Ethereum or any other exchange, they should look at it, "Here's a technology that can do a feature, that's X, Y an Z at the toss, I'll pick the best one for my product." And we saw that, they'd proven true, when we saw this really massive explosion in the ecosystem of dev streaming into build.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (15:41)
We had prizes in our hackathons for seed funding and these were, I think, the de-frag hackathon had a prize of 300,000 and potential funding for a team that wins it, but before the hackathon was even finished there were, I think, over 10 teams that have raised over a million each already. So what we saw was that teams that are founders that want to build a new business, like a whole new company running on top of Solana, they saw their eyes light up when they saw the performance and the benefits of network infrastructure and they were able to build the products and MPV and raise funding those four weeks that we ran the hackathon without us even being the main driver of that. So this was really to me like a sing that we were onto something and I think a sign to everyone else.

Anthony Scaramucci: (16:49)
So how would you then if you had to tell people, what is the difference between Ethereum and Solana?

Anatoly Yakovenko: (17:00)
Short version, it's like when Intel shipped the multi-core chip. We're the multi-core. We're the massively multi-core version of a single CPU processor. Like you can think of it as the batch position in hardware when we went from single speed networks to now very parallelized high performance networks.

Anthony Scaramucci: (17:25)
So as a result of that, can Ethereum catch up? Can they create applications that can make them, or innovations that can make them, multi-core?

Anatoly Yakovenko: (17:37)
There are different ways to approach this. So Ethereum and Ethereum 2 and the way it's designed, I make these kind of morbid analogies, Solana's designed as you'd build a nuclear first strike detector. You want to maximize the number of sensors you have and how hard it is to break into all of these sensors and how hard it is to corrupt the entire network. Ethereum 2 is designed so there are some survivors left after the attack to tell you that it happened, which is a different thing.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (18:14)
You're building these shards and you're building a network which is maybe slower, but in some ways has some different properties which is what Ethereum 2 and their vision is going after. And some of the ways you can think about it in terms of, "Well, why do I care as a user?" In finance, you have these things called settlement platforms, things that do settlement. And then you have exchanges everywhere where execution and clearing occurs.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (18:43)
I like to think that if you were to apply a financial lens to it and think of it only from centralized finance and not application. Solana is the execution layer, in fact you access a bunch of different settlement layers. If you're in this settlement layer, then you connect to a different bunch of execution layers. So we're as a network, the hardware and the design and everything else that Solana is built for is to be this global place for execution, price discovery. In my mind, this is where all the fun innovation occurs.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (19:14)
I can name a dozen companies that do trading exchanges. I don't know a single settlement platform.

Anthony Scaramucci: (19:23)
No, listen that makes sense. I want to shift gears before I get John involved. He's the Millennial, Anatoly, so he's going to try to ask better questions that me, okay? But you're older than him, so I want you to defend me. But before I get him involved, you have this major NFT project called Degenerate Apes. Now, where did the name come from first of all? Is that just another name for human beings, Degenerate Apes?

Anatoly Yakovenko: (19:48)
I guess so, yeah.

Anthony Scaramucci: (19:50)
Yeah, I mean I'm sure that's basically what it is. We're all just degenerate apes. So now you've launched this on Solana, it is an incredible [crosstalk 00:19:58]-

Anatoly Yakovenko: (19:58)
We didn't release this. This was an artist, a random artist who [crosstalk 00:20:02]-

Anthony Scaramucci: (20:02)
Let me rephrase that. A random artist launched this on Solana. I'm sorry, I want to rephrase that to make sure that it's accurate. But it's an artist that came up with these degenerate apes. It's on Solana. People are super enthusiastic about it, but I think it's something important for the validation of Solana. So tell us what that is.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (20:22)
So again, it's really tough to show that Ethereum's network effects are not where I'd like.. Until somebody actually shows and proves that consumers really care about the speed and price and the use of the network moreso than the Ethereum of it, that is called Ethereum. What they care about is the experience, more than the network itself. So you have to go and proof it. So this was something that we suspected was going to happen eventually. We didn't know where or how or why.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (20:53)
And this project launched by this artist that maybe is coll looking NFTs that look like apes. They're adorable, I guess. They're cool and it had a positive network viral effect and what we saw was that people really liked the experience. They cared more about the product that this artist was making, much more so than they cared about what network it is on.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (21:22)
And because a lot of it is cheap and fast, it never got in the way of that experience. And this is what we hope to see more of that. As artists launch, they should pick Solana's network because we will never get in the way. You don't want to know that Qualcomm is the modem that is running inside your iPhone. You just never want it to fail. You never want to have the bad experience. You basically want to forget about it.

Anthony Scaramucci: (21:54)
John Darsie. By the way, Anatoly, congratulations Anatoly. What you're doing is nothing short of brilliant and I'm sending you a big hug and I'm wishing for even greater success for you and the Solana ecosystem.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (22:07)
Thank you.

John Darsie: (22:09)
Yeah, I mean to go with your analogy, Anatoly, this is not an Ethereum bashing session by any means, but almost Ethereum is a gas powered car, that there's gas stations all around the country, all around the world. It's easy to fill up, people use it almost by default, despite some warts on that protocol. Solana is the early stage Tesla of the crypto ecosystem, where once the infrastructure and the network effect is there to support the charging stations and everything you need, it seems like Solana has the advanced tech to lead the Web 3.0 revolution. Is that sort of the way you guys look at it? Is it in terms of network effects? It's all about creating projects like the Degenerate Apes and then we'll talk about Star Atlas in a second. But just how important are those network effects?

Anatoly Yakovenko: (23:00)
So I think there is a difference between settlement and execution and it's just I'm not sure that you can design a network that could be best at both. So if you're like folks at Ethereum, they're coming in from this idea of self-sovereign money and bitcoin and what that is, and what they're really focused on is competing with bitcoin and this idea that we can have a global currency that is self-driven and self-sustaining.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (23:31)
Then settlement becomes the most important thing of that feature. You almost have to pick, every time you make an engineering decision, you have to pick that as the most important factor, no matter what. And we're coming in as communications falcon folks and I'm looking at this thing, "okay, its censorship resistance is the most interesting thing that separates a block chain from a database." And the use cases that are interesting there are this idea of decentralized finance, price discovery, how do we optimize for that? How do we optimize for the execution layer?

Anatoly Yakovenko: (24:07)
It's possible that there's no proof, or at least no one's really tried to build one, but in my gut, kind of engineering level check, it's really hard to do both. It's a perennial push and pull problem. What we're doing is really going to be the fastest possible way to do price discovery, execution. But the settlement, final state can occur in any number of networks and you see that already with the number one trading pair at Serum is bitcoin against the FCC.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (24:37)
None of those are natively issued tokens at Solana, right?

John Darsie: (24:40)
Right.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (24:40)
Somebody else, they're [inaudible 00:24:42] settlement at bitcoin, certain guaranteed settlement of USDC and that's fine. Those are just two different goals. And what we will do deliver a cheaper version of that. The way that it's designed, it's never going to be as fast as, as responsive to user events as something that we're building, which is, "Let's beat NASDAQ, let's flip NASDAQ and Andreessen." That is like [inaudible 00:25:16] floats to this idea of information propagating through a censorship resistant network at the same speed as news, as financial news travels around the world and makes impact on prices, we want to be competitive with that speed, speed of microfiber.

John Darsie: (25:31)
Right. The idea of decentralization, there's a lot of things in what people would deem as crypto that are not actually decentralized. Especially as crypto becomes institutionalized, it's sort of a magic word in crypto, a lot of times decentralization goes away. You talked about somebody like Sam Bankman-Fried, who has a centralized exchange, also investing in a decentralized exchange with Serum that's built on top of Solana, there's an interesting idea around the Nakamoto coefficient. I think [inaudible 00:26:01], general partner at Andreessen Horowitz first coined the term, but it talks about the true decentralization of different block chains.

John Darsie: (26:08)
Bitcoin is famous as a proof-of-work blockchain that it requires 51% of users on that network in order to basically corrupt or takeover the network. Proof-of-state block chains, the Nakamoto coefficient is lower, but Solana, in terms of proof-of-stake block chains, has the highest Nakamoto coefficient. Can you talk about why that is and why that's important?

Anatoly Yakovenko: (26:32)
Yeah, and this is back to that analogy that I made of surviving the nuclear strike versus detecting it. And again, decentralization is a meaningless term and there's a lot of ways to look at it and fundamentally, everyone should go look at, read that article Webology, but basically, given all of these different ways to look at it, what is the smallest way we can draw a circle around the parts of the network that if we destroyed that piece that the network would halt, or the network would be disrupted in some way.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (27:05)
And that's really minimum surface area for an attack. In consensus, specifically and why this matters specifically to price discovery or execution of orders and flow and information flow, is if you have a visibly [inaudible 00:27:25] tolerant system, if you control more than 33% of the nodes, the stake, the voting in that thing, you can decide the order of events. And that means that if I have 33% of the stake and hedge fund A, wants to transfer dollars from financing it to Coinbase. And hedge fund B wants to transfer also dollars to finance the Coinbase. I get to pick which fund goes first.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (27:50)
And that's a problem. That's a problem for finance. I can't corrupt this data, I can't steal anyone's money. I can't create the network and cause it to sign, put in your keys that guarantee that you have custody, but I can definitely pick the winners and the losers. And for some use cases, that doesn't matter. Solana is, I think, one of those use cases where order of events no longer matters. It doesn't matter if hedge fund A, gets settled eventually first or second, within some reasonable timeframe. And that's kind of the idea of self-sovereign money and bitcoin. Their form of censorship resistance is that if I have my keys, I have my bitcoin and I submit a transaction that maybe not today, but within weeks or definitely months or years, somebody will eventually process it. There will be at least one honest block producer and enough of them in a row to guarantee its settlement.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (28:46)
But the use case that I think is more interesting is in realtime, there are orders, there's trading, all this information that stays locked up in NASDAQ, locked up at NYSE and CME, and decentralized financing, the primary use case of that, you really need to guarantee that it's as hard to corrupt as possible. And it will never going to be perfect so that it can be centralized and then taking on that responsibility yourself. But the only way to guarantee it is to maximize the minimum set of independent operators that add up to that 32%.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (29:23)
So it becomes much, much harder to draw that circle to make that set of that sub-network that could pollute and start corrupting the information flow. So this is really like the number one parameter that we're focused on and because of that, a lot of the engineering designs that I've spoken about, it has to be super high performance, it has to process a lot of messages, it has to do a lot of cryptographic signatures and you end up with something that is quite opposite of Ethereum 2 or any other competitor networks that are more focused on the settlement piece.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (29:59)
So that, I think, when we first started going to [inaudible 00:30:08], I thought, "Everyone else is going to do the exact same thing," because it was so obvious to me. This is the most important thing are these networks, the censorship resistance piece, the only way to ensure that actually works is to maximize the number of parties that are participating in the network, and the only way to ensure that, that's possible is to optimize the hell out of it. Actually make it possible to handle all these messages.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (30:32)
To me, it seemed like the obvious thing, but it turned out that basically we're the only ones really focused on that, and that's, I think the most important thing for finance. Even something like payment. You have somebody like big FinTech company that's in payments, Visa, or whatever, they need to guarantee that when merchants start receiving these payments, there isn't some set of small parties that can stop the flow of volume, because their business, their livelihood depends on it. They actually care that the stuff gets settled within seconds versus days later.

John Darsie: (31:08)
Right. Yeah, no one of the things I admire about you and I admire about Solana is you are focused on speed and you are focused on performance. We're very enthusiastic about the crypto space generally, but there is a lot of cheerleading that goes on. There's a lot of financially driven decisions, whether it be the big wave of ICOs that took place in 2017, or some of the other more nefarious things that go on in that ecosystem. But you guys had your heads down from the beginning, focused on building the highest quality product and not paying attention to the price of your coins or anything really financially driven.

John Darsie: (31:46)
When you were building Solana in early 2018, the bottom fell out of the crypto market, it was sort of a challenging time for a lot of people that once became enthusiastic about crypto and then pulled back a little bit. Goldman Sachs famously shuttered their plans to open a crypto trading desk. Did that pull back, that sort of bottom falling out of the crypto market in 2018, was that challenging at all for you? Did you lose heart at all, and what generally motivates you to continue building Solana?

Anatoly Yakovenko: (32:15)
It was like the media's psyched to peddle a dinosaur. It was definitely crypto winter and we saw a lot of teams fall apart. We were always somewhat conservative. We never raised a ton of money. We always had about two years of runway, so we were always like, "We've got to build this thing as fast as we can and really focus on the key product that we think is going to make a difference, like the key differentiator."

Anatoly Yakovenko: (32:47)
From our perspectives, probably one of those unexpected things that there's no way we could have wished for us but was extremely beneficial to us as a team, but it really forced us to focus and build the right thing. Every Silicon Valley book has all these lessons, "You should do X, Y and Z. Focus on the key thing, look for products, go for the most important users, worry about product market, theta development, [inaudible 00:33:15] everything else," but a lot of luck and the environment forces you to make those decisions.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (33:20)
I think again, all the options, some of our competitors, they raised hundreds of millions of dollars I think in some ways, they risked them way too early. They didn't have the same hunger or drive.

John Darsie: (33:35)
Right. This SALT Talks, is a series that we bring to both people that are very deep in the crypto world and also some people with a little bit less knowledge and experience. So this is one of those questions that is addressed more to that introductory crowd, but you've been very vocal about the fact that if you don't control your keys, you don't really participate in crypto in its truest sense. So, for those that are less familiar, could you explain the reasons why controlling your keys is so important?

Anatoly Yakovenko: (34:04)
So purely from a financial perspective, if you have custody of your keys and there's some value associated to those keys, 100% of the network can be corrupted and it's impossible for it steal your coins. This guarantee that your keys provide is a cryptographic certainty that you have custody of that thing. And when you're talking about particularly dollars, it's a peer-to-peer guarantee between you and Circle, which has this ledger that's represented by this cryptography at Solana but the money's, in fact, in a bank somewhere.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (34:45)
So that peer-to-peer relationship, I have keys that represent dollars in Solana, Circle has its dollars in a bank. The entire Solana network would be 100% corrupted and there's no way to break that as long as the keys are secure, between you and Circle. That's really what allows the state to scale, and really allows the network, like Solana to operate much more like a switch, like a AT&T or like a pure infrastructured information provider. The only thing that it's doing is making sure that this data's propagated and everybody can see that, but it really has no control over the values or the money that is actually being stored. It has zero control over it.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (35:26)
So that's a very important thing but from a decentralization, kind of like where is this industry going, if everybody holds their form of Coinbase, the Coinbase has a single key that represents all of those assets, it becomes the focal point for finance. Might as well use a bank, like what is the difference? There are differences, there's security between Coinbase and you see that better ETIs, maybe cheaper wires, but the users don't actually get to have those guarantees because they're so on the hook for Coinbase to do the right thing.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (36:11)
Removing all those obstacles is what allows an app developer, like an application developer that wants to provide returns to the users to build something, but purely with code. Never trusting, without any trust, never taking custody of anyone's funds, but allowing to coordinate 100 million cryptographic keys to borrowing money from each other and start giving a real return without any middleman.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (36:37)
If this is possible in software, you don't need a third party like Coinbase in the middle to pay another three, 4,000 engineers. You look at something like UniSoft, folks that have never heard of Ethereum are a peerless competitor. UniSoft is like 10 people. It's an exchange that has 32,000 pairs traded on them, 10 people. Because, it's a bit of code that just coordinates people. It doesn't actually take custody, and this is where I think the power of crypto is this ability for very small teams to build highly leveraged software that creates these new financial instruments, which similar instruments or where you have a traditional finance, but it removes all possibilities of failure, fraud and that's the magic of it. We actually leave people with self-custody to go exercise their power.

John Darsie: (37:34)
I mean one of the things we're so excited about for SALT in September is getting you, Sam and Jeremy Allaire from Circle on stage together to talk about just basically the new financial infrastructure that you're building on de-fi crypto rails, if you will, between USDC, the stable coin that was launched by Circle. Obviously what Sam is building at FTX, and also at Serum, and how Solana all plays into that as basically the optimum base layer for all that.

John Darsie: (38:05)
But I want to talk about, and this is not something that you guys developed, just to be clear again, but Star Atlas is a play to earn game that's being launched on the Solana blockchain that people are very excited about. The idea of play to earn games, in general, fascinate me and I think have a massive future. Could you talk about play to earn gaming? Could you explain to people what it is and why there's so much excitement around Star Atlas?

Anatoly Yakovenko: (38:30)
So gaming I think is one of those new opportunities for crypto, but simply that I don't always believe it's going to happen because I don't know if you've ever played like Ultima, [inaudible 00:38:42] or World of Warcraft's, I started with Ultima when I remember as a teenager I went to the bank, got a cashier's check, mailed it to somebody during the snail mail to get an item from Ultima [inaudible 00:38:54]. So that process of a person actually paying money for a digital item that they have no ownership of, it exists. There are secondary markets for World of Warcraft goals, Ultima, online as well had some and [inaudible 00:39:13] line, which is a space [inaudible 00:39:14] for very sophisticated economies around its units. Those things exist and they run and Star Atlas is an attempt to make it wholly on chain. To use all the same leverage and technology that, you have the best market makers in the world using Serum to trade, can now use that inside and exchange for crystals or energy units, whatever, it's like Star Atlas to build your spaceships. How cool is that?

Anatoly Yakovenko: (39:46)
It's all in one single giant computer that doesn't really care if it's trading bitcoin into dollars or endgame units. That's the essence of it is, "Can we build a game that is owned by the players that are generating their own content and that content is valuable because there are consumers, like players that just want to pay?" They don't want to play through the game, they don't want to earn those items, but they just want to have the experience, and [inaudible 00:40:18] that substitution. Like do you have enough people that want to effectively own the game and be those content creators and earn a living from it, and enough consumers that want to just experience parts of it?

Anatoly Yakovenko: (40:30)
It's, I think, something that feels like science fiction. So probably five years away. So I should start working on it now. [crosstalk 00:40:39]-

John Darsie: (40:39)
Ready Player One.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (40:40)
Exactly.

John Darsie: (40:41)
A popular book and movie, Ready Player One, that you... I read the book many years ago and said, "Wow, I could see our future resembling that in some way," but then you start to look at things like meta verse gaming play to earn gaming, something like Star Atlas, and you're like, "Wow, we're not that far away from that future where people are going to derive a lot of pleasure and probably spend a lot of time in these virtual worlds." It starts to help you crystallize in your mind why NFTs are so valuable. And why virtual digital real estate has value.

John Darsie: (41:11)
Because at the end of the day if we live in a highly virtual world, this is an oversimplification, there's no reason why those things shouldn't have the same type of value that people derive from physical goods and physical real estate.

John Darsie: (41:24)
Last question I have for you is, what is in your plans for the future? Obviously, you guys have had an explosive summer of growth, like I mentioned in the opening, it's been Solana summer, even though you guys are very humble and avoid the cheerleading that exists in a lot of areas of crypto, but what are the next topics of focus for you and the team at Solana labs?

Anatoly Yakovenko: (41:45)
So we're super engineering heavy company, like we're mostly focused on the boring side, which is let's build a fast software like system fast database. And it's almost like, it's oddly boring work. We have a bunch of performance improvements, most downhill engineering. You've got to benchmark, task, analyze, improve and that's something we've been doing, I think, for the last year, since we launched.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (42:18)
And we're continuously, incrementally improving everything. Maybe that's part of the success story is that iteration is the most important thing when it comes to engineering. I think that was an Elon Musk quote. So if that helps you, our goal is how do we iterate and improve the network as fast as we can?

John Darsie: (42:40)
Right. Do you think your focus on development is something that attracted people like Sam to the project? And I think Sam, as much as anyone, he again, takes sort of a sober view of crypto. He understands the bull case. He understands the bear case for certain protocols and for the industry as a whole. Do you think your heads down mentality is something that's attractive to hardcore developers themselves, and also people that are building on top of block chains?

Anatoly Yakovenko: (43:11)
He's not an engineer so this was really I think, in a lot of respects, this is driven by the engineering team that was like, "Hey, this isn't going to work. Let's just go build it." It feels like to maybe to outside folks, it feels like there's some master plan. It's not. There's not. There's kind of like fire driven development, "What is the most important thing that we need to fix right now?" is very much part of our daily routine. And what that means I think for the future is, I think more, kind of like I mentioned before, you don't notice Moore's Law when you're in it. But with those improvements, exponential improvements occur over large spans of time because really, really staggered.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (44:02)
So this is what I hope we should see in the next four to eight year. Imagine 100 million people with self-custody on a single network, or a billion people with self-custody on a single network. What impact they have had is very unpredictable. It's like me in 1996 telling you that sharing pictures of cats and babies with your friends and family is going to be worth a trillion dollars. You would tell me that I'm crazy.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (44:30)
So how do we predict where the stuff goes is really, really hard for us. There's folks that are heads down in the hardware and in the software.

John Darsie: (44:41)
Anatoly, it's been a pleasure to talk to you. Again, we're super excited about Solana. I think the more you talk to people in the space, the more impressed they are, not only with the amazing technology you've built, but also the power of the network effects of some of these projects that are coming online. And certainly you guys have a ton of momentum. So we're rooting for you, we're excited to see you in person in September and have that conversation you, Sam and Jeremy on stage at SALT. And we'll be, again, rooting for your success going forward. But thank you so much for joining us.

John Darsie: (45:12)
Anthony, you have a final word for Anatoly before we let him go?

Anthony Scaramucci: (45:14)
I just think it's a brilliant exposition of what you created and part of genius frankly, is simplicity, and I think you did an amazing job of explaining where things are and why you guys are on the cusp of something huge. It's already huge, but it's going to even exponentially more huge. So congratulations to you, Anatoly.

Anatoly Yakovenko: (45:37)
Thank you, so much. I appreciate it.

John Darsie: (45:40)
And thank you, everybody for tuning in to today's SALT Talk with Anatoly Yakovenko, the founder of Solana. Just a reminder, if you missed any part of this talk or any of our previous SALT Talk, you can access them on our website, on demand at salt.org\talks or on your YouTube Channel, which is called SALTTube. We're also on social media. Twitter is most active @SALTConference. But we're also on LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook as well. And please spread the word about these SALT Talks, we love educating people, especially on this new, emerging asset class, crypto Web 3.0, all these types of topics. So again, please share this talk with your curious uncle.

John Darsie: (46:18)
On behalf of Anthony and the entire SALT Team, this is John Darsie, signing off on SALT Talks for today, we hope to see you back here again soon.

David Mercer: FX & Crypto Trading | SALT Talks #248

“[LMAX’s sixth exchange launch, in Asia Q4] will be the first exchange we launch that will have fiat currencies and crypto on the same exchange… I think the partition wall between fiat and crypto will be knocked own within the next 3-5 years.”

David Mercer is the Chief Executive Officer of LMAX Group, a global financial technology company headquartered in the UK, and the leading independent operator of institutional execution venues for FX and crypto currency trading. Following a successful management buyout in 2013, David has built LMAX Group into a key player in both the traditional capital markets and the crypto trading industry. With global client base and offices in 9 countries, LMAX Group was recently valued at $1 billion, following a minority stake sale to J.C. Flowers & Co. A former City banking executive and currency specialist, David is an outspoken industry commentator and a long term champion of the UK’s technology sector as well as a passionate supporter of entrepreneurship.

David Mercer discusses his career and entrance into the crypto space with LMAX. He describes the convergence of fiat currencies and crypto, highlighting LMAX’s soon-to-launch exchange in Asia that will host both fiat and crypto. He explains the advantages of institutional crypto exchanges and how the crypto space will continue to strengthen as adoption grows, banking participants increase and credit intermediation becomes available. Mercer predicts the top 5% coins will win out and see parabolic price growth in the next 2-5 years.

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MODERATOR

SPEAKER

Headshot - Mercer, David - Cropped.jpeg

David Mercer

Chief Executive Officer

LMAX Group

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 - Intro and background

6:40 - Entrance into crypto

9:51 - Response to crypto critics

16:40 - Convergence of FX and crypto

20:09 - Addressing crypto storage concerns

24:00 - Institutional vs. retail crypto exchanges

27:33 - Wall Street adapting to crypto

30:17 - Bitcoin vs. Ethereum vs. the rest

32:43 - Transitioning to DeFi rails

35:37 - Crypto regulations

40:44 - Projecting crypto prices

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie: (00:12)
Hello everyone. And welcome back to Salt Talks. My name is John Darsie. I'm the managing director of Salt, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance, technology, and public policy.

John Darsie: (00:26)
Salt Talks are a digital interview series that we started in 2020 with leading investors, creators, and thinkers. And our goal on these talks is the same as our goal at our Salt conferences, which we're excited to resume here in the fall of 2020, in our home city of New York. And we're excited to welcome our guest today to the Salt conference in September.

John Darsie: (00:46)
But that's to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And we're very excited to bring you the latest in our series of Salt Talks, covering the digital assets or crypto space and how it's also starting to bleed into things like FX markets and commodities markets as well.

John Darsie: (01:06)
With David Mercer, who is the chief executive officer at LMAX group, which is a global financial technology company headquartered in the UK and the leading independent operator of institutional execution venues for FX and cryptocurrency trading. Following a successful management buyout in 2013, David has built LMAX group into a key player in both the traditional capital markets and the crypto trading industry.

John Darsie: (01:31)
With their global client base and offices in nine countries, LMAX group was recently valued at $1 billion, following a minority stake sale to JC Flowers and company. David's a former Citi banking executive and currency specialist. He's also an outspoken industry commentator and long-term champion of the UK technology sector. As well as a passionate supporter of entrepreneurship.

John Darsie: (01:54)
Hosting today's talk is Anthony Scaramucci, who is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge capital, which is a global alternative investment firm, also with a heavy investments into the digital asset space. SkyBridge was the first 40 act fund. The first fund of hedge funds in the U S to make a substantial investment into Bitcoin in November of 2020. And SkyBridge continues its foray into the digital asset space. I'm sure a lot for Anthony and David to talk about today, with that, I'll turn it over to Anthony for the interview.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:23)
John, thank you. Well, first of all, David, graduations on an amazing career, but like me, you started in traditional finance. So my first question is, tell us a little bit more about your background that enabled you to expand the universe of your thinking and to move into the business at LMAX, the one that you're currently in.

David Mercer: (02:45)
Hi Anthony, Hi John. Hi everyone. Well, first of all, I'd like to say, not too early with the congratulations. I think I'm just getting started. We're just getting started. I think everything to date has been like an undergraduate degree. But to put it in a picture, I mean, I guess three chapters of my career to date, each chapter's about a decade long.

David Mercer: (03:05)
A decade and investment banking, just learning my trade, learning capital markets, everything from the middle office to the front office, fixed income emerging markets. Learning a lot about credit and sort of the swings and roundabouts of capital markets, the boom and bust, if you like, of capital markets.

David Mercer: (03:22)
Then a decade outside of it, trying to learn how to be an entrepreneur, trying to learn how to run a business. Because sometimes when you're in one of these ivory towers of investment banking, it's hard to ... everyone else does the work for you. It's hard to actually understand what it takes to run a business.

David Mercer: (03:39)
And then the last chapter or the most recent chapter, shall I say, hopefully not the last one, putting it all together. The last decade has been at LMAX. So typical turnaround job there. It was a startup back in the day, standard startup issues. Too many people, some of the wrong people, spent too much money. Hadn't spent enough time on sales and distribution. Hadn't finished the product. So apart from that, it was all easy.

David Mercer: (04:08)
But the last decade has been trying to narrow the focus, having a singular focus for the business. Hopefully putting together some of what I learnt in the previous two chapters, I say, in banking, learning how to run a business and we've had some success. So today, we run five exchanges, trade about $30 billion a day, and guess what we're here today to talk about most is probably LMAX digital, which is the fifth of our exchanges and has been our fastest growing exchange to date.

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:37)
I want to get to LMAX digital in a second, but for our young listeners, because it's interesting. You talked about three different chapters, each taking a decade. I always tell young listeners an overnight success takes about 15 to 25 years.

David Mercer: (04:53)
Yeah.

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:53)
You and I both know that, David. But what is one of the core tenants of your business principles in terms of the way you try to create the culture of success in the organizations that you're running, or a part of?

David Mercer: (05:09)
One of my favorite quotes of all time comes from one of your founding fathers over there, right? So it's persistence and energy conquers all things. And that's it. Look, you can't speak to the 20-something year old, David Mercer. You just cannot. Because back then, if you told me it would take a decade, I'd move on. I expected everything to happen in six months and 12 months, but not everything works perfectly, but it's just that persistence and energy.

David Mercer: (05:39)
Back to what we do here today, no one believed us 10 years ago, but I had a singular focus. We had a singular focus. I'm very lucky to have a management team and we just stuck at it, but make the mistake. It's a bit like investing in crypto today. There's a majority out there which is telling you you're wrong, that it's the wrong approach.

David Mercer: (06:00)
So just having the persistence and energy to keep going. And don't get me wrong, if you spot that you've taken a wrong turn, it's okay. Right. End it quick, right. So it's okay to succeed slowly. It's okay to succeed fast, but guess what? It's also okay to fail quickly, right? Just don't fail slowly. So if you make a wrong turn, just come back on it. But that's it, just the persistence and sometimes it's the sheer bloody mindedness to stick at it. And I think if you have that, you'll go a long way.

Anthony Scaramucci: (06:37)
Well, listen, I've been there. And I get it. You had a Eureka moment somewhere, where you said, okay, you just pointed it out and Neel Kashkari, who's a fed president, he said this morning that 95% of crypto is garbage and all this nonsense that he said this morning. But you've had a Eureka moment. Describe the Eureka moment. Describe why you're in crypto with LMAX.

David Mercer: (07:04)
Yeah, I wish I was that prescient. And I wish we were that prescient. I guess if we had been, we mightn't be here today, Anthony. We may have all invested back in '09, 2010. Certainly when someone first mentioned Bitcoin to me in 2013, but I guess it was towards the end of 2017.

David Mercer: (07:24)
So you can call us late comers if you like, but we have our work cut out, building our own exchanges. Everything we do at LMAX is proprietary technology. So all my FX exchange is run on that proprietary technology. And 2017, which was the first sort of retail tidal wave or parabolic growth that you saw in certainly the Bitcoin price.

David Mercer: (07:49)
And suddenly the same customers who traded FX with me, and these are the biggest banks in the world and the biggest proprietary trading firms in the world and Chicago, New York, London, and Amsterdam, more than one of them knocked on my door and said, "David, we need you. We need your technology. We need your proprietary technology in this space."

David Mercer: (08:07)
Because we're making markets, we're printing tickets all around the planet and all these retail platforms, but we need some industrial grade institutional infrastructure so that we can exchange risk with like-minded participants. And actually so no real Eureka moment, but it was a case then of moving fast, acting on it, speaking to the right people at LMAX.

David Mercer: (08:28)
I remember, if you want a particular moment, I called my COO, my CTO, my head of software development, my risk officer, into a boardroom. And I said, "Look, are we doing this or not?" And more or less, the way I pitched it was, "Find me a reason why not to do it." And the truth was we had the distribution, we had the liquidity, we had the technology. All we had to do is integrate with a few blockchains and to be frank, that took three to six months.

David Mercer: (08:57)
And from field to fork, as they say, or from concept to delivery, we launched LMAX digital within six months of that meeting, so that's when it happened. And I didn't even for one second think about failure. I guess we never do. Because everything we had in the background, as I say, the distribution, the people, the technology, it was all ready.

David Mercer: (09:23)
So if Bitcoin was going to work, if crypto was going to become a bonafide asset class, then we were going to be in the right place. And you know, just today, just to fast forward a little bit, I know we'll get into this more in more detail later, but look, 40% of my customers also trade FX with me. So I knew I had that. I knew if this thing was here to stay, I knew that we had the customers and we had the framework, the bedrock, if you like, for an institutional cryptocurrency exchange.

Anthony Scaramucci: (09:51)
Is it here to stay? You know, crypto skeptics say that it has absolutely no real utility or no real benefit to the society. Warren Buffet said that it was rat poison. And then they asked him again. He said, "No, it's rat poison squared." His older brother, the 97 year old Charlie Munger, said, "It is the worst thing that's ever happened to the civilization." We've had some bad things happen to the civilization, but this was the worst. What is your reaction to all that, David?

David Mercer: (10:19)
Oh, you know, I guess if you've been in capital markets for a long time, you've always answering this question, what good do you bring to the planet? It goes back to when I was in emerging markets in the late nineties. What value do you bring to those worldwide economies? Well, actually, quite a lot. Right? So we funneled a lot of cash there.

David Mercer: (10:41)
But so look, there are people out there that will always criticize it, but you know, Bitcoin and crypto specifically, well, what have we got at the moment without it, right? We have a feat system that looks, if it's not broken, it's severely damaged. And people are now starting to see it, post-2008. And if you like, now post-2020 with the pandemic. People are starting to realize that the hundred bucks they had in their bank account, doesn't get them quite so much as it did in 2019.

David Mercer: (11:15)
And that's just a fact. We live in this inflationary society where governments are just printing more and more of our cash. And you're earning nothing in the bank. So, I mean, I'm scratching my head thinking, "What would I do? What do I do?" People say to me, "Buy fine art. Buy other assets."

David Mercer: (11:33)
So someone invented this new asset and I quite like it because it's just maths right? In that you just solve maths equations and that's it. And it's guess what, okay, if you want to call it digital gold, it's digital gold, right? But it's a finite supply of it. That seems intriguing. If nothing else, it's intriguing. If nothing else, it's a useful alternative to what we've now understood for the last 50 years, which is feat. I mean, the feat dollar's only been around for 50 years. That's nothing right in the history of currency, in the history of markets, that's nothing, right?

David Mercer: (12:12)
So we broke away from the gold standard 50 years ago. Was that the right thing to do? I don't know. Well, this and Bitcoin is, it's perhaps closer to that. So look, it's an alternative. It gives you the three things I guess you're looking for in a currency. It gives you a store of value. Discuss. I mean, is anything a store of value? Really?

David Mercer: (12:31)
It gives you a medium of exchange. I.e. You will accept it from me. Not everyone will just yet, but more and more are accepting it. And it's a unit of account, right? So you and I certainly could go anywhere and someone could price something up in Bitcoin and we'd get it or Satoshi and we'd get it. So it's a good alternative.

David Mercer: (12:52)
And I think my now to the skeptics, if you're still skeptical, I probably can't persuade you. But I'm going to give you another way of thinking about it. Probably if you're an investor, you've probably got some Netflix in your stock portfolio. You've probably got some Tesla. You've probably got some JP Morgan. You might have some Spotify.

David Mercer: (13:19)
Well guess what? The market cap of Bitcoin is bigger than all of those. So you probably need to have in your portfolio, you know, I'm not a maximalist. I'm not saying a hundred percent at all. I'm not an evangelist. Ultimately, what we do is match buyers and sellers. But this is an asset class that today is worth somewhere around $2 trillion.

David Mercer: (13:39)
So something close to Apple or Microsoft. So you're probably thinking, "I need to have something in my portfolio just in case." And then we go back to the former arguments. Well, maybe it can replace. Maybe it can become a part of capital markets going forward and part of our lives going forward, maybe it can replace feat, which as I say is damaged.

Anthony Scaramucci: (14:04)
So I think it's a brilliant assessment, what you're saying. I'm going to tell you my Eureka moment and then I want to get your reaction to it.

David Mercer: (14:13)
Sure.

Anthony Scaramucci: (14:16)
Marc Andreessen said that this is a brilliant evolution of technology, the blockchain, and assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, because the first time in human history, we will be able to have a permissionless peer to peer transaction with people that we don't know, don't have to trust.

Anthony Scaramucci: (14:39)
And when we're sending money around the world, now we send it to a quote/unquote third party, a JP Morgan, a Citi bank that we trust. And then they send it on to the person that we're trying to send it to, to create that exchange for goods and services.

Anthony Scaramucci: (14:55)
This is completely transformative. It truncates that, and it creates an amazing level of efficiency. And so if you study the history of money, it has all of the capabilities of money, the trusted network of the impregnability of the blockchain. What's your reaction to that?

David Mercer: (15:17)
Yeah. Look. I love the theory. I mean, I guess we wouldn't be in it if we didn't believe in that theory. And I think, like everything, the world's going that way, Anthony, peer to peer. You mentioned peer to peer, that's the way the world's going with everything.

David Mercer: (15:37)
And if you were designing your ideal world, ideal scenario, everything we would do would be peer to peer. And you're seeing that, the likes of eBay guests got there first, right? And other walks of life. So with currencies, with transactions, with asset transfer, with the payments between each other, it makes total sense. Don't get me wrong.

David Mercer: (16:05)
You know, I'm a pragmatist and the evangelists will say, "We can just go now peer to peer," but we cannot. We can for a cup of coffee. We can perhaps for the price of a car. We cannot for the value of your net worth. We cannot for the value of your house just yet. But the scientific experiments are in development. And I think we're going to get closer to that peer to peer permissionless network that you sort of described.

Anthony Scaramucci: (16:41)
You know, LMAX is focused on both crypto and FX. Do you see an increasing convergence between the two, crypto and FX?

David Mercer: (16:48)
A hundred percent. I mean, I'm impatient, I'm impatient and I want it to happen now. So in fact, we're going to launch our sixth exchange in Asia, in Q4 this year. It'll be the first exchange we launch which will have feat currencies and crypto on the same exchange, under the same or similar regulatory banner.

David Mercer: (17:12)
So I think the partition wall between feat and crypto will be knocked down within the next three to five years, for sure. And in many ways it already is, but there's pros and cons. Neither are perfect. Okay. So if I look at FX, it's not perfect. I mean, actually, we've run hard to keep up with technology and foreign exchange over the last 20 years. In fact, I would say the FX industry, whilst it's been going for centuries is really only 20 years old because that's the electrification of foreign exchange markets.

David Mercer: (17:45)
So it's actually not far ahead of crypto. Now, crypto. I mean, just think, if you landed on Mars or Mr. Musk takes us there and we create societies there. Why are we going to close the stock market at 5:00 PM on a Friday? Why are the banks going to be closed on a Saturday and Sunday? Why can we not transfer money Saturday and Sunday?

David Mercer: (18:05)
So if nothing else, 24-7 crypto markets, that's coming to a traditional capital market near you soon. So at LMAX group, we launched weekend FX trading last year. Now I'm not going to tell you we do much trading on our Saturday and Sunday, but we will. It's there because we see no reason why you can't trade euros and dollars and Mexican peso on a Saturday or Sunday. So that's fantastic.

David Mercer: (18:31)
I think a lot of the technology evolution on the blockchains that backup these cryptocurrencies is great. So look, payment clearing and settlement in traditional feat is clunky, right? You've been around for a while like myself T plus two. I mean, what is all that about? Two, by the way, everyone, in case you're not familiar with it. It's two days. Two days to move your dollars. Two days to move your pounds.

Anthony Scaramucci: (18:58)
David, it was five, when you and I got in the industry, right?

David Mercer: (19:01)
There we go.

Anthony Scaramucci: (19:02)
Then it went to T plus three and you were waiting for these things.

David Mercer: (19:06)
We're talking two minutes here, Anthony. So, you know, still to this day, it's quite unbelievable, Anthony, as you well know. The easiest way, if you want to send Aussie dollars to your relative in Sydney, Australia today, still the best way to do it is to go to the bureau to show engine, get on a plane.

David Mercer: (19:23)
That's still quicker than you wiring them the money. That just can't be right. So, I mean, it's a long-winded way of saying, "Look, there's some great things in the crypto market we can adapt and adopt in traditional capital markets." And likewise, dare I say it to the crypto evangelists out there, there's some bits of traditional capital markets, like credit intermediation, like the infrastructure, like the market access provided, that are useful, that we could port over to crypto.

David Mercer: (19:55)
And I think together, Anthony, look, my impatience is that I just want to trade Bitcoin and Ethereum the way we do euros and Mexican peso and just get on with it and create a better ecosystem for both.

Anthony Scaramucci: (20:09)
Talk about the infrastructure and the brokerage clearing, the storage of these cryptocurrencies for a second. You know, one of my skepticisms in the beginning was I was like, "Okay, my God, if I'm going to," SkyBridge now has about $700 million a Bitcoin and Ethereum across our portfolio spectrum. But I didn't feel comfortable doing that a few years ago, even though I liked the asset class, I feel more comfortable today because I think I can store it safely. What are your thoughts there?

David Mercer: (20:43)
You hit the nail on the head. I mean, the good thing is your investment thesis is correct. That was the biggest challenge you had. And it's still the biggest challenge holding people back today. How do I store it? The biggest challenge for within LMAX group of launching our next digital was, "Wow, I haven't got a Chase. I haven't got a Barclays. I haven't got a Bank of America. Where do I park my client's funds?"

David Mercer: (21:06)
There's no bank for this. There's no custodian. We actually built our own. We happen to think as best in breed, but there are, the one you use is very good. There's lots of other good custodians out, so that's a real challenge. And then if you come upstream from that, so first of all, where do you store it? Let's face it. The pension funds the asset managers in the world. They're not storing it in the mattress. They're not running around with hard drives, storing their private keys. They want to trust a custodian.

David Mercer: (21:32)
But then you move up streams. Okay. Let's say we crossed that one off, but we're not there yet. You know, there are a few good custodian solutions out there, but perhaps they're not all household names and moreover not everyone's using them, which would make it easier. Now, how do we plug those custodians onto exchanges so that you have ease of market access for that real money?

David Mercer: (21:54)
I truly believe there's a wall of money. There's a wall of institutional money waiting to get in, but what they need is that storage you talk about, and then they need the credit intermediation. Now they say to me, one of my better brokerage customers said to me, "David, don't talk to me about private keys. Don't talk to me about wallets, custodians, and blockchains. I just want to trade Bitcoin the way I trade euros,. The way I trade dollars, that's what I want to do."

David Mercer: (22:25)
But they forget that behind the scenes, they're happy that some banks are priming them onto exchanges and are storing their assets for them. So we need more of those developments. I mean, to this day, if you're a crypto only, if you suddenly became a crypto only fund, your banks may not open a bank account for you. They may not open a feat bank account for you. That's how difficult it is.

David Mercer: (22:50)
So we need more adoption there. I talk about the ABC of crypto. Everyone's heard it before, probably. About adoption banking and credit. The adoption's coming. We need the bankers to get more involved and then we need that credit intermediation so that there's less friction in the market. There's a bit of friction on the on-ramp and off-ramp, if you like, into crypto at the moment.

David Mercer: (23:13)
So there's good projects underway and I know you've engaged with a couple yourself and at SkyBridge, and hopefully there'll be more so that we can get this wall of institutional money into the crypto marketplace.

Anthony Scaramucci: (23:28)
Yeah. Listen, I personally have been surprised at the general reluctancy. I actually think Larry Fink has been right when he's interviewed on CNBC, David. He says he doesn't really have clients that have a super amount of interest in it right now. I think the hedge fund managers do for sure and sophisticated managers do.

Anthony Scaramucci: (23:47)
But when the day comes that a large scale pension fund or a public employees' retirement system? Look out, those assets or ridiculously cheap. And they're in short supply of Bitcoin specifically. Let me ask you this question about an institutional exchange and the retail exchanges like Coinbase. What would you say to our viewers and listeners? The key differences are between retail and institutional exchanges?

David Mercer: (24:17)
Too many to mention, maybe. Look, first of all, I take my hat off to those retail platforms out there. You know, I don't actually call them exchanges. They are effectively broker dealers and they have platforms to match. But they need to solve many, many issues for those customers. Technology issues? Right? "Can you send me a statement? Can you show me the chart? Can you give me a price in a thousand coins? Can you give me some nice newsfeeds interview feeds?"

David Mercer: (24:49)
So there's a real technology challenge there, right? So you mentioned a name there, they're very public. They have 56 million customers, 5 million active. If you imagine just 5% of them logging in at one time, that's a big technology challenge. Institutionally, I cater for 500 customers, that's it. And I'm happy there. I don't have to do the KYC, the onboarding that you do with all that ... in the retail environment.

David Mercer: (25:17)
But I process probably more orders a day than all of the retail chain exchanges put together. So for me, the requirements for my institutional customers and they will be the largest banks in the world. Today, they are the largest proprietary trading firms in the world. Some of them are listed vehicles.

David Mercer: (25:36)
What they care about is does it work? Is it fast? That's it. I can't have a down second. I can't be slow. We process something around 4 billion orders a day. Our cancel and replace times are 80 microseconds. What does that mean, David? Well, that'd be about, that's 12 times in a millisecond. That's 12,000 times in a second. Right? And whether the market's going parabolic up or we're in that death spiral down that you saw at the start of the pandemic, the technology has to work. That's the challenge you need to solve.

David Mercer: (26:13)
And you must be able to give them a price in size. So we operate a central limit order book, in depth, and if I allow you to buy 20 million Bitcoin, 20 million dollars worth of Bitcoin at any one time, I've got to have orders there so that you can sell 20 million Bitcoins.

David Mercer: (26:31)
So those are the real challenges. It's really a tech challenge and a distribution challenge. And all we do, I mean to give my ... show a bit of empathy to my retail counterparts, right? My challenges are somewhat less in terms of the questions people could ask me. All they want to see is what is the price and what price can I buy and what price do I sell at?

David Mercer: (26:56)
My job is just to process as many of those, the same message, as many of those a second as I can. Whereas, as I said before, with retail, it's basically horizontal, right? Rather than vertical, in that you could ask one of your retail platforms, any myriad of 100, 200 questions. I need to answer the same few questions all the time, 24/7. So really it's a technology challenge, along with a infrastructure and credit challenge.

Anthony Scaramucci: (27:28)
I'm going to turn it over to my colleague, John Darsie, but I have one last question for you before I do. What happens to old wall street?

David Mercer: (27:38)
Well, you know, Anthony, I think old wall street, I love old wall street, right? We all thought, I liked the city of London. You know, they say that the stock exchange down here is the oldest casino in the world, right? I think wall street, the floors have a great way of reinventing themselves, right?

David Mercer: (28:02)
So big bang, it's probably, there's going to be no traders left. Okay, so the traders, they left the floors and they went to the desks. Well, most of these guys are now retired, so the new traders then are now engineers, right? They now solve problems for a living, they now write algos.

David Mercer: (28:18)
So look, myself, sometimes we hanker back for those noisy days. I grew up on trading floors. People were smashing screens and a buddy of mine, we had a drawer full of spare phones because they'd smash a phone normally about once a month because a trade went against them.

David Mercer: (28:33)
So it's changed. But the skillset, the engineering ability, the problem solving ability, the speed of mind, it's now just transferred into computers and algorithms. So I think wall street has already partly reinvented itself. And the big name let's face it, Anthony, through our three decades, certainly that I've been around, the biggest names in banking, for example, are still the biggest names in banking.

David Mercer: (29:05)
And they will evolve. Good companies. You know, they're great by choice. You know, they choose to be great. They choose to stay great and they change their focus and they have the customer there. So I think wall street's here to stay and you know, but guess what, there's always room for some new guys on wall street.

David Mercer: (29:27)
It was only 20 years ago, 15 years ago, you heard about HFTs and proprietary trading firms. They were the new guys on the block. Now you've got some real crypto engineers, scientists, they're putting their size 11's or size 15's in the United States, squarely right bang in the middle of wall street. So I think it's going to evolve. I think it's going to get stronger and it'll probably be better than ever.

Anthony Scaramucci: (29:56)
Well, I appreciate the commentary a great deal, David. I do miss those days. I will confess that. But go ahead, John. The future is yours, John, go ahead.

John Darsie: (30:05)
All right. Fantastic. David, it's a pleasure to have you on and thank you, Anthony for ceding the floor. My question for you, David, is about Bitcoin and Ethereum. And then also the growth of the ecosystem generally. You talked about how your entrance into the digital asset world was driven largely by demand and demand for institutional quality products.

John Darsie: (30:26)
In terms of the demand that you're seeing related to Bitcoin versus the demand you're hearing related to Ethereum and even the emergence of other coins and protocols and digital assets. What's the percentage? Is it still Bitcoin that's dominating the conversation? Is Ethereum catching up at all to Bitcoin?

John Darsie: (30:42)
I'll talk about SkyBridge for a second. We started as a Bitcoin only, we had full intention of only including Bitcoin in our portfolios, but have added Ethereum. And we think that has staying power in the digital asset world. But for you, what's the interest level, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and then other?

David Mercer: (30:58)
So I think it's clear in the institutional space, it's Bitcoin. So we're 70/30 Bitcoin, Ethereum, but there was days in June and July where Ethereum was 50/50. I've seen the stats like everyone else on the retail exchanges out there, that Ethereum just overtook, just shaded Bitcoin. The truth is, as a trading product, Ethereum's too expensive and it's too slow.

David Mercer: (31:26)
Bitcoin is the asset that traders want to trade today. But, why Ethereum? Why is it starting that much? Well, actually it's all about defi. Despite all the other, there's some other coins out there that are sort of seeding the defi experience. But far and away, Ethereum's the winner on that at the moment. It's the utility coin, it's the on-ramp into defi.

David Mercer: (31:57)
So I think everyone, or a lot of people are getting involved in defi, are starting with Ethereum and then switching it up into other tokens. But there's nothing that says it's going to hold that place for forever. I happen to think there's much better experiments out there than Ethereum. But look, it's a bit like gold versus silver. Or in my currency space, Euro dollar versus dollar yen.

David Mercer: (32:25)
So for now I can't see Ethereum shading Bitcoin permanently, but whilst defi is growing and that's the accepted on ramp, then yeah, it's going to have more of a share of wallet than it did, say 18 months ago.

John Darsie: (32:41)
Right. Anthony asked you the question about what you think is going to happen to old wall street. And I want to ask it in sort of a different way. Is that, a lot of people that are looking from the outside, who haven't fully bought into the idea of defi or the idea of this crypto ecosystem that's growing.

John Darsie: (32:58)
They view Bitcoin and Ethereum and other coins purely as speculative assets. But I think the entire defi movement has the potential to greater disrupt sort of the traditional financial ecosystem relating to things like banking, as you talked about before, relating to things like prime brokerage. How do you think those types of business lines, things like prime brokerage, traditional banking functions are going to be different in a decade using blockchain defi type of rails.

David Mercer: (33:25)
They're going to have to catch up quick, John. It's simple as that. I mean, if you go to ... I'm no expert necessarily in defi. I would say that we contribute to the valuation within defi. For me, that's the key. Smart contracts, the key is the valuation of the assets on those smart contracts.

David Mercer: (33:44)
So we started to contributing to pith the network for that. So that's the old world, if you like, capital markets moving into the new world. And so we contribute to that Oracle, I think it's the way forward, but look, step back. What do I like about defi?

David Mercer: (33:59)
The idea that we could be more capital efficient? The idea that we could move our balance sheets to the blockchain and large institutions can move their balance sheets to the blockchain. They can stake their assets that are basically gathering dust at the moment, like your dollars in your bank account or my pounds in my bank account, so to enable individuals and institutions to stake their assets.

David Mercer: (34:29)
Ultimately, when I look at it today, I look at defi, plenty more users than this, but it seems that what's hot at the moment is effectively good old fashioned stock borrowing and lending, right? They call it staking. They call it yield farming, but it's stock borrowing and lending.

David Mercer: (34:49)
So wouldn't it be great if that market access was provided to more people or more institutions and defi has the ability to do that. So I happen to think you will still have, I guess, in defi world, we talk about nodes, so those credit intermediaries, be they prime brokers or banks or credit cards, they can be more dis-intermediated.

David Mercer: (35:14)
They're can be more of them. There can be more credit nodes around the place to enable this capital efficiency. So I think the incumbents need to move quickly if they want to hold onto that space. If not, there's plenty of crypto projects out there that are looking to replace them or certainly supplant them when it comes to crypto.

John Darsie: (35:36)
Right. As Anthony mentioned, Neel Kashkari a fed governor, the former fed chairwoman, Janet Yellen, now the treasury secretary, has expressed very skeptical views about the crypto ecosystem. There's sort of old world, old wall street banking regulators across the U S and across the world, frankly, who have skeptical views about the nature of trading that takes place in the digital asset ecosystem. They characterize it as money-laundering or nefarious in some way.

John Darsie: (36:06)
And so it's creating obstacles for unfettered growth of a lot of these industries. How do you view regulation, in the UK, in the United States, and other jurisdictions that you do business? And what do you think they ultimately land on, in terms of how they regulate defi and how they regulate the digital asset world?

David Mercer: (36:25)
It's a two things there, and everyone puts them in the same bucket, right? Regulation and AML. They are different things, but AML is part of regulation. And I object highly to anybody that says that trading in crypto is money laundering or nefarious. Because when I launched LMAX digital, I had to implement the fifth money laundering directive before it was even a law.

David Mercer: (36:50)
As part of my regulation, but what does that really mean? You just KYC your customer, right? You have to ask them for the source of funds, source of wealth. That's just the way it is in capital markets. So there's no more risk of money laundering in the cryptos, if you're a regulated counterpart like ourselves in crypto, than if we're in feat. In fact, we can go a step further.

David Mercer: (37:17)
I don't KYC the coin. I KYC you. I need to know where you got your money from, source of funds, source of wealth. And if you don't give it to me, well, I can't open an account for you to trade feat or crypto. And in crypto I can go a step further, right? I can use the tools that are out there and I can check where the coin has been before.

David Mercer: (37:38)
I can't do that in dollars. I can't do that in pounds. So, I think people, sometimes when the politicians they have a stage and they don't know enough and they haven't researched enough before they pontificate, it's a challenge. You know, there were people and they're being investigated right now, who were letting you open an account with an email address. That's wrong. That's in breach of global AML guidance. Every country in the world is signed up to that global FATCA AML guidance, right?

David Mercer: (38:10)
Only one country in the world isn't, you can probably guess what it is, right. Everyone has signed up and we all use it. You've got to give me nine pieces of paper to open an account. With your lawyer, with your accountant, with your banker, with your broker. Now regulation. Again, let's get down off for soap boxes. It is right that we regulate and that we protect private investors. That's important.

David Mercer: (38:33)
I happen to think you don't ... banning things doesn't protect it, but doing things that they're doing in Europe and the UK, like limiting leverage, it's entirely sensible. We do something in the UK and FCA guidance called a suitability test. Do you understand this product? And if it comes back and says, "No, you don't." You can go off and do training courses, to get up to speed, so that this does become suitable.

David Mercer: (38:59)
"Do you understand leverage?" Most people actually initially say no. And then you say, "Well, have you ever bought a house? There you go. You've got some leverage in there because you didn't pay for it in cash. Most of you." So that type of thing, suitability test, allowing people to protect themselves, protect their investors. I think protecting private investors is important.

David Mercer: (39:19)
And a lot of what you see in regulation is doing that, and that makes complete sense. Outlawing it doesn't work because what you then do is drive your own citizens offshore into the hands of people who don't have this stringent regulation and protection mechanism or protection blanket that we surround the world, certainly in the UK and the United States, for example.

John Darsie: (39:45)
Right.

David Mercer: (39:45)
Otherwise, regulation in the wholesale environment, we're all regulated. We're highly regulated. They just haven't quite got a framework yet for what is crypto. Certainly in the U S, "Is it currency? Is it a security? Is it a commodity?" For me, it's definitely a currency, but you know, some of them, some of the crypto assets, they could look like a security.

David Mercer: (40:10)
So be careful when you're launching your token, if you pay dividends, for example, is there anything that resembles a security? You're going to come under SEC law, but the frameworks are there. So I think don't confuse the two, but generally we are fans of regulation. I'm highly regulated.

David Mercer: (40:27)
As an MTF, as a broker, by the FCA in the UK, in Gibraltar for digital and in three or four other jurisdictions around the planet. We're a big believer. Normally it protects private investors and it gives us, the wholesale guys, the rules of engagement.

John Darsie: (40:43)
Yeah. I mean, I think in the space, the exchange space, you have people that started off as crypto native and are struggling to grapple with traditional regulation, AML type stuff. And you're seeing growing pains there. I'm not going to single anybody out, but you probably know the types of people that I'm talking about.

John Darsie: (41:01)
And you have people like yourselves who are coming from an institutional background and responding to demand within the digital asset space. And I think one is certainly a better fit for institutional business, hence why you're growing so quickly on the institutional side, related to some of your competitors, I would imagine.

John Darsie: (41:20)
But the crypto ecosystem is growing rapidly, I think by any measure, but it's often done sort of in fits and starts and in bursts of sort of exponential adoption, both in terms of the price of coins and in terms of market penetration. As you look out over the next year or 24 months, what part of the cycle do you think we're in today, as it relates to adoption, as it relates to price of something like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other sort of defi protocols? And where do you think we'll be in that one to two year timeframe?

David Mercer: (41:52)
Ah. Short timeframes, they're always tough, right, when you're commentating anything. I always like five or 10, but look, genuinely on a longer timeframe, call it a decade, we're just at the very start. I think any chart you grow in terms of number of years, you show in terms of number of users or value of any asset, it won't register. It'll be a flat line compared to what it's going to be 10 years from now.

David Mercer: (42:17)
There's certainly a wave right now. So if you want a shorter timeframe in the next couple of years, look, it's all I see is every day I open more accounts than I did in the corresponding day, the previous month. And these are institutional accounts, right? I'm not in retail land. So I get more inquiries every day, just three years ago, I have 34 banks connected to LMAX group, trading foreign exchange.

David Mercer: (42:42)
We knocked on all of those doors three years ago, we launched LMAX digital and everyone said, "Thanks, but no, thanks. Not now." Now 10 of them are taking my market beta. Three, I've gone through conformance testing. They're not trading actively now. I know all the proprietary trading firms that could move more quickly or have maybe smaller bureaucracy. They're all trading.

David Mercer: (43:03)
So my biggest customers in foreign exchange of trading crypto. So that tells me it's coming. So look, there's $110 trillion of assets under management out there. If 5% was allocated to crypto, and that's the type of number you're talking about with pension funds and asset managers, allocating on their portfolio of 5%. Then it means the value of crypto assets has to be $5 trillion. Today, it's one and a half to 2 trillion.

David Mercer: (43:32)
That tells you where the price of crypto assets are going to be. You know, and going back to some of the common debt, as you mentioned earlier, not everything's going to win. It's like dotcom. Not all of these coins are going to win, right? Probably the bottom 95 to that 95% number the bottom 95, probably will go by the wayside and will fork into something else. But the top five, one of the top five certainly, will win out. And they will ... the price you see in two years now in five years from now will be parabolic compared to what it is today.

John Darsie: (44:02)
Yeah. I mean, you had a Marcy Frost, who's the CEO of Calpers, which is $500 billion asset owner that manages retirement assets in California this morning on CNBC. She didn't say that Calpers is imminently going to get involved in Bitcoin, but she says in five years, I wouldn't be surprised if Calpers has exposure to Bitcoin.

John Darsie: (44:22)
You know, it's something that I think there's social proof that's being demonstrated within the crypto space. Almost every big bank now has some sort of solution for clients based on demand. A lot of what you experienced as you got into the space.

John Darsie: (44:35)
And so I think that the stigma around Bitcoin is starting to fade away and you know, it could become exponential at a certain point, but David, it was a pleasure to have you on Salt Talks. We look forward to hopefully seeing you in September. If president Biden will let you in the door. We're certainly trying to help you in that regard, but look forward to having you involved in Salt in person, as well as sharing this Salt Talk with everyone. Anthony, you have a final word for David before we let him go?

Anthony Scaramucci: (45:00)
The next time you come on, I want you to smash one of these phones. Okay. I want you to help me relive my youth. Okay? I feel like we haven't smashed the phone in twenty-five years, David.

David Mercer: (45:11)
No, absolutely. I'll bring a drawer full.

Anthony Scaramucci: (45:14)
Please. Bring a phone to Salt and let me smash one on the podium, just so I can relive what it was like in 1990 at Goldman Sachs and the J Aron commodities area.

David Mercer: (45:25)
I think they made them the right size deliberately, so they just snapped in half.

Anthony Scaramucci: (45:27)
Right, exactly.

David Mercer: (45:27)
One side, you know, they weren't made-

Anthony Scaramucci: (45:27)
The Hollywood version.

David Mercer: (45:31)
They weren't made with 2020 technology.

Anthony Scaramucci: (45:34)
Listen, you built an amazing business, congratulations to you and your people and your team and culture. We look forward to seeing you in person at our event.

David Mercer: (45:43)
Thank you both for your time today. Thanks Anthony. Thanks, John. All the best.

John Darsie: (45:47)
Thank you, David again, and thank you everybody for tuning into today's Salt Talk with David Mercer of LMAX group. Just a reminder, if you missed any part of this talk or any of our previous Salt Talks, you can access them all on demand on our website salt.org/talks and on our YouTube channel, which is called salttube.

John Darsie: (46:05)
We're also on social media. Twitter is where we're most active at Salt conference, but we're also on Instagram, LinkedIn, and Facebook as well. And please spread the word about these Salt Talks. We think this digital asset ecosystem is growing tremendously, firms like LMAX doing a great job bringing institutional credibility to the space and driving adoption in that segment of the market as well.

John Darsie: (46:24)
But on behalf of Anthony and the entire Salt team, this is John Darsie signing off from Salt Talks for today. We hope to see you back here again soon.

Matt Hougan: Crypto Index Funds | SALT Talks #241

“Bitcoin is evolving from a carbon intensive past to a carbon neutral future, just like automobiles… I think it’s part of a positive environmental story.”

Matt Hougan is one of the world’s leading experts on crypto, ETFs, and financial technology. He is the Chief Investment Officer for Bitwise Asset Management, the world’s largest provider of cryptocurrency index funds, with more than $1 billion in assets under management.

He was previously CEO of ETF.com and Inside ETFs, where he helped build the world’s first ETF data and analytics system, the leading ETF media site, and the world’s largest ETF conference.

Having spent much of his career educating investors around ETF’s, Matt Hougan details his transition to long-term crypto investing via index funds. He explains the importance of regulation in creating greater clarity around crypto, helping digital currencies reach their full potential. Hougan explains how a crypto index fund minimizes risk while giving access to one of the greatest potential-filled investment opportunities.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

MODERATOR

SPEAKER

Matt Hougan.jpeg

Matt Hougan

Chief Investment Officer

Bitwise Asset Management

Rachel Pether, CFA.jpeg

Rachel Pether

Senior Advisor

SkyBridge

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 - Intro

2:15 - Development and education of ETF’s

8:25 - Offering crypto education

10:26 - Crypto polarization

12:26 - Crypto regulators

14:26 - Bitwise as a crypto index fund provider

17:25 - Explaining blockchain

20:20 - Bitcoin environmental concerns and ESG

24:00 - Potential Bitcoin risks and value of an ETF

29:30 - Explaining DeFi and future of crypto investing

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

Rachel Pether: (00:00)
Hi everyone, and welcome back to SALT Talks. My name's Rachel Pether and I'm a Senior Advisor to SkyBridge Capital based in Abu Dhabi, as well as being the global MC for SALT, a thought leadership forum and networking platform that encompasses business technology and public policy. SALT Talks, as many of you know, is a series of digital interviews that we launched during the work-from- home period, and what we're really trying to do here is replicate the feelings from our global assault conference series and provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts.

Rachel Pether: (00:42)
Today I'm very excited to be speaking to Matt Hougan, who's one of the world's leading experts in cryptocurrencies, ETFs and financial technology. Matt is currently the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, the world's largest provider of cryptocurrency index funds with more than a billion dollars in assets under management. Matt was previously the CEO of ETF.com and inside ETFs, where he helped build the world's largest ETF data and analytics system, the leading ETF media site, and the world's largest ETF conference.

Rachel Pether: (01:17)
Matt is also the co-author of two publications from the CFA Institute Research Foundation, which we'll be hearing a bit more about later, and he received a Lifetime Achievement Award from ETF.com for contributions to the ETF industry. Finally, he is also a strategic advisor to multiple crypto and financial advisor-related startups. Matt, welcome to SALT Talks.

Matt Hougan: (01:41)
Thank you so much, I'm so glad to be here.

Rachel Pether: (01:44)
Now, I'm really excited about this conversation and, you know, I find the evolution of your career so interesting, so I want to rewind a few years because the first US ETF was in the early 1990s, but then it took almost 15 years for the actively managed ETF to appear in the space, at which point you were already in the industry. So take me back a few years, tell me about your background and what drove you into ETFs when it was still pretty nascent in terms of its development.

Matt Hougan: (02:16)
It was nascent, that's right. In the earlier days when we started focusing on the ETF market, no one knew what they were people called them EFTs, they didn't understand how they worked. They were even skeptical of them. I remember the Financial Times writing about ETFs and calling them weapons of mass destruction, if you can believe it. Today, everyone loves them, but back then that wasn't the case. What attracted me to ETFs in the first point was I saw them as a fundamental technological advance that sort of took mutual funds developed in the 1940s and brought them into the modern era. They were lower costs, they were cheaper, they were more tax efficient. And I expected this to become, you know, what it is today, which is a massive part of how people allocate to this space. I saw it's ability to help investors and I wanted to get involved. So that's what brought me into the ETF space.

Rachel Pether: (03:07)
So I'm so interested in some of the parallels you mentioned there about the initial skepticism towards ETFs and how that plays into cryptocurrency now, but I'm guessing, given where you came into this in terms of the development, you must've had to do quite a lot in terms of education. So, maybe talk me through what you did in the space in terms of educating the market. And also, do you think there were any specific triggers for ETFs to become more mainstream, and as you say, not be seen as weapons of mass destruction?

Matt Hougan: (03:38)
Yeah, it is incredible. I mean, one more point on that, the US Congress actually held hearings where they brought ETF executives in front of them and grilled them for hours about whether ETFs were destroying American entrepreneurialism. It's hard to imagine today when they're at the center of everyone's portfolio, that there is that much skepticism and that much doubt, but that was true, and it's often true of disruptive technologies. Disruptive technologies challenge in status quo, they're new, sometimes they're hard to understand and it takes a long time for people to realize the benefits that they can bring to society.

Matt Hougan: (04:13)
You know, in terms of ETF land, what it took was people like me, but also an entire industry, fund providers like Barclays, like State Street, eventually like Vanguard, doing core education. What is an ETF? Why is it better than a mutual fund? Balanced education. What are the risks that come with ETFs? But really helping people understand this wasn't a new foreign, risky, unheard of concept. It was an evolution of the mutual fund structure that was designed to just make it better, cheaper, more tax-efficient, and telling that message consistently over 10 years eventually it got through. And now it's, you know, it's a $7 trillion industry and growing.

Rachel Pether: (04:54)
You know, you mentioned that they said it was destroying the financial ecosystem. Was that just because they saw it as taking over active management? Or what was some of the rationale behind that comment?

Matt Hougan: (05:06)
Yeah, there were a couple of reasons for that. So one, there is still today, a concern about the rise of index investing and whether it's interfering with price discovery, and people thought ETS were doing that. There was also this perception that because ETFs are traded intraday, they were encouraging people to overtrade their portfolios and not invest for the long term. And of course, the core part of capital markets is directing long-term capital allocation. And so there's this misperception that it was interfering with that.

Matt Hougan: (05:38)
In fact, what ETFs were doing, were they were actually improving the efficiency of people to be able to adjust to news. And today you see a lot of ETFs that are held for 5, 10, 15, 20 years. I know that I own ETFs that I haven't traded for more than a decade, and I think that's true of many people. But that was the concern, it was overwhelming active management and it was encouraging a short-term view of what investing is.

Rachel Pether: (06:05)
You know, I think two points you made there, I'd love to dive into a little bit more depth about how they pertain to cryptocurrencies as well, particularly the points on price discovery and trading intraday. But maybe just a little bit more on the education point, because I appreciate there's a difference between formal education and informal education. So what are some of the formal education steps that you took?

Matt Hougan: (06:30)
Yeah, on the ETF side I was fortunate with a couple other colleagues to write the CFA Institute's guide to exchange traded funds. I think credentialed well-accepted industry standard educational groups, educating people about what it really is and what it really isn't, was very important. I gave an ETF one-on-one talk, I think over a thousand times, at conferences large and small, at lunches over, you know, over salmon and salad with financial advisors around the world, and then spoke to the media constantly, consistently and repeatedly.

Matt Hougan: (07:08)
I do think some of the formal education through things like the CFA Institute really mattered because that was a well-established organization saying this is something you have to pay attention to. But a lot of it is one-on-one, hand-to-hand combat over a period of years, introducing people to what it is, letting them digest that for six months, having them come up with questions, answering those questions, and the ETF industry as a whole did a phenomenal job in the US, whether it was the industry itself.

Matt Hougan: (07:38)
supporting organizations, or individual investors walking through that process over a series of years. But it does take time, it was not at all clear. Even 10 years after the ETF launched that it was going to be as mainstream as it is today. There was huge skepticism, even 15 years after it launched. It was really only as it got into its second decade that people began to accept it as, okay, this really is the future of how people invest. So one message is, it takes a lot of time.

Rachel Pether: (08:10)
That's always a good message to remember when you're in the middle of hand-to-hand combat, that's for sure. And you talk about the thousand ETF kind of educational sessions. How does that compare to what you've done thus far in terms of cryptocurrency education?

Matt Hougan: (08:26)
Yeah, I'll tell you, I'm on that path again. I'm probably at number about 200, 250, but I give crypto one-on-one presentations to group of institutions and financial advisors and hedge funds and individual investors, literally almost every day, telling the exact same story what blockchains really are, how they work, what they introduce into the world, the real risks and benefits, and I imagine it's going to take years as well. But I'll say this thing, the level of interest in understanding what crypto is, is higher than the level of interest was and understanding what ETFs are.

Matt Hougan: (09:02)
When we do ETF or crypto one-on-one talks for financial advisors, we'll often have a thousand advisors show up for a webinar to learn about what crypto is to answer the hard questions. So, definitely repeating the same process, more engagement, and we're doing some of the things I did in ETF. So we wrote the CFA Institute's Guide to Bitcoin Blockchain and Cryptocurrency, which has become one of their most downloaded publications in the history of the CFA Institute, to show you the level of interest, the level of entry, and the need for understanding, it's one of the most popular things that they've ever published, which I think shows that people are engaged in this, but they still have a lot to learn.

Rachel Pether: (09:49)
And that's a great point that you raise about that willingness of people to learn more about it. And you know, when I look at the cryptocurrency market as someone who likes to think I'm reasonably balanced in terms of my views, it does seem that the follower's quite binary, right? So you have on one side, you have the people calling it rat poison, that it's the worst thing to ever happen to the financial markets, communities, countries. And then you have the people who are so pro cryptocurrencies, that it's very hard for them to see any other alternative. What do you think drives this kind of following when it comes to cryptocurrencies?

Matt Hougan: (10:26)
It is exhausting, it's the land of hype and hyperbole, you're absolutely right. It's either going to destroy the world or fix everything, and of course the answer is in the middle. I actually think the reason we have this bifurcation is that depending on how you view crypto, you're either naturally skeptical or naturally optimistic. And here's what I mean. If you think of crypto first and foremost as a currency, you're going to look at it and compare it to the dollar and say it doesn't measure up. "It's more volatile than the dollar, I can't spend it, I can't go buy something at Starbucks with it. It looks like a janky currency." And those are the people who come at it and say, "Well, this is rat poison squared, it's tulip bubble 2.0, it's not going to anything."

Matt Hougan: (11:09)
You have other people who see it as a technology, and they look at this software network that can move a billion dollars around the world in 10 minutes and have it settle for a fee of less than a dollar. And they compare that to the largest banks in the world with hundreds of thousands employees who, for whom it still takes two days to wire $10,000 to London. And they think this is incredible, it's the greatest thing since sliced bread, it can move money at fractions of the time and fractions of the cost of the largest financial institutions in the world.

Matt Hougan: (11:40)
And I think that's why you get those two disparate views. Of course, the reality is somewhere in the middle. It is a phenomenal technology with huge potential applications, but it has to wrestle with a lot of regulation and real world uses to see where it evolves too. So the answer is in the middle, but I think that whether you view it as a currency first, or whether you view it as a technology first, determines which path you go down for skepticism or optimism. And I think that explains a lot of the confusion in the crypto space.

Rachel Pether: (12:10)
Yeah, I really like that explanation. I think that's also a really good segue to the regulation piece. You know, you mentioned, is it a currency, is it a technology? How do you think the regulators see it? And maybe we start with the US, since that's closest to home.

Matt Hougan: (12:27)
I think mostly they see it like, whoa, what is this thing that's exploded into the market? And it doesn't fit very well in US regulations. Most financial securities regulations were developed 50, 60, 70, 80, 100 years ago. The fact that a new digital asset that's money existing on the internet doesn't fit hand in glove into that, is not surprising. I think two things are true about regulation.

Matt Hougan: (12:52)
One, in order for crypto to become what I think it could be, which is the new centerpiece of a more efficient, more inclusive, more positive financial industry, it needs regulation. It needs AML, KYC, it needs clarity on whether it's a security or not, it needs guardrails around how new cryptocurrencies can launch. It can't reach its full potential unless regulators provide that clarity. That's one big thing.

Matt Hougan: (13:21)
The other big thing is regulators could easily overreach. As I watched the regulatory news right now, I definitely see people who are spooked by Bitcoin and crypto, or who are maybe first associated Bitcoin and crypto with what it was in 2012, 2013 when its primary use was in the illicit dark markets and it hadn't matured into an institutional asset. And so, there's real risks that regulators will overreach. The question of how regulators sort of come out of the next year is going to determine, I think, whether this is a once in a generation bull market, which it could be if the regulation is positive, or if it's significantly slowed down. And the short answer is we don't know how that's going to come out. It's evolving day by day in Washington right now.

Rachel Pether: (14:07)
Mm-hmm (affirmative) And I'd really like to go into a bit more detail about some of the points you raised on regulation, also how China plays into that. But please do tell me a bit more about Bitwise and what you're looking to achieve there. And also who's your target market in terms of clients and investors?

Matt Hougan: (14:26)
Love it. You know, Bitwise is one of the largest and fastest growing crypto asset managers in the world. The unique place that we sit is that we're first and foremost a crypto index fund provider. So you can think of like the S&P 500 or the FTSE 100 for crypto. We have the largest crypto index fund in the world and a series of other funds along that model. And then the other pieces were built to serve financial advisors and other investment professionals. You know, crypto emerged as a retail phenomenon with self-directed individual investors using apps like Coinbase to invest in this space. There are also a lot of VC firms that serve the largest institutions in the world. Bitwise sits in the middle. We're serving RAs, broker-dealers, wirehouse advisors, financial professionals who want to gain access to funds holding crypto assets for their customers. And so we try to build simple funds that capture this space in a secure way, and we've been doing it since 2017.

Rachel Pether: (15:27)
Great. And you know, you mentioned that you're hosting these salmon lunches all across the US. And speaking to the financial advisors, what are, I guess, the two or three most common questions that you get asked from them?

Matt Hougan: (15:41)
That's a great question. Yeah, they ask so many questions. So on the one hand, they want to know what it is. Many people have read about it in the news, but they couldn't tell you what a blockchain is, they couldn't tell you what programmable money is, they couldn't tell you the core benefits of what crypto is, and they couldn't explain it to their clients. So a lot of what we do is arm them with basic understandings, so when they get questions from clients, they can give good responses.

Matt Hougan: (16:09)
And then once they understand what it is and they see its potential, then they want to talk about the risks. The risks include, what will regulation shake out to be? Will it constrain crypto, or will allow it to grow? They worry about crypto's environmental impact. They worry about how you value crypto assets and how you decide if now is a good time to get in, or if you should wait for prices to adjust, and they want to know how much crypto you should have in your portfolio. Is it 1%? Is it 5%? Is it 10%? What is the right way to add it to a portfolio settings? So, that's what we try to do. We try to arm them with simple ways to explain crypto and then answer their questions and concerns about what the future looks like.

Rachel Pether: (16:52)
You know, it's interesting you mentioned that the first question is what is a blockchain? I have to admit that I'm quite embarrassed to say this, but when I was reading a paper on blockchain and it talks about a chain of blocks, and I was like, "Oh, that's why it's called a blockchain." So, maybe if you could just put it in layman terms, because it's one of these words, you know, big data, artificial intelligence, blockchain, a lot of people I think, drop them subtly into conversation without really understanding what they are. So how would you describe what is a blockchain?

Matt Hougan: (17:25)
Yeah. My favorite way to describe a blockchain is to start with something people know, which is PayPal or Venmo. We all use PayPal in our day-to-day lives because it's great. I can send you a hundred dollars and you get it instantly. What people don't think about is why is PayPal so fast, and the traditional banking system is so slow? It's not because PayPal is this new FinTech app, it's because it's one database. So when I want to send you a hundred dollars, PayPal can look, it says, Matt has a hundred dollars, he hasn't sent it to anyone else. They can move it to you instantaneously.

Matt Hougan: (17:57)
The reason traditional banks are slow is because there's thousands of databases. If I give you a check and you deposit it at your bank, your bank won't let you have that money until it checks with my bank and make sure I haven't overdrawn my account. So one database fast, a thousand databases slow. All a blockchain is, the first blockchain was the Bitcoin blockchain, it was the culmination of 30 years of computer science research that answered a simple question, which is how can we have one database that's available to everyone around the world that everyone can see and everyone agrees is updated at the same time, but without Venmo or PayPal sitting on top of it? Right? Because then you have to trust Venmo or PayPal, they can charge fees, et cetera. How can you have one database available everywhere in the world, everyone can see, but no one single party controls. That's what Bitcoin blockchain solved and all subsequent blockchains solved, and that core breakthrough is what allows blockchains to do incredible things.

Matt Hougan: (18:54)
It allows you to settle financial goods, move them as fast as you can move emails, right? Because it's one database, boom, boom, boom. It allows you to program money like you can program software, because you can have money native on the internet. And it allows you to have digital property rights because you can own something in that database without anyone blessing that you can own it. You can own it like you own a Picasso on the wall. And so this is the core breakthrough, one database available everywhere that everyone agrees is true, but is not controlled by any individual entity. And that's the real breakthrough from which all the benefits and potential flow.

Rachel Pether: (19:33)
That is by far one of the best summaries I've ever heard, very clear and concise, so thank you for that. You mentioned that one of the most common questions that you got from financial advisors was the environmental concerns, and I find that quite interesting because, you know, here in the Middle East, it's a lot of institutional investors, a lot of sovereign wealth funds, and they're really placing ASG on the agenda. And so I'm interested to say that that's one of the questions from financial advisors as well.

Rachel Pether: (20:03)
So my question to you is, how do you look at the environmental impacts of Bitcoin, and also how does this play into the recent news coming out of China with regards to, you know, the fifth time they've banned Bitcoin, but this time with a real crackdown on mining.

Matt Hougan: (20:20)
That's exactly right. So yeah, ESG is top of mine for the reasons you mentioned also because Elon Musk is tweeting about it. Look, Bitcoin consumes a fair amount of energy. Now, what's true beneath the surface is that Bitcoin uses a lot of renewable energy and is transitioning to a more carbon-neutral mix. But proponents of Bitcoin can ignore the fact that like many industries, it consumes a fair amount of energy.

Matt Hougan: (20:45)
What I tell people is that look, two things really. One, Bitcoin and crypto is evolving from a carbon-intensive past to a carbon-neutral future, just like automobiles. We still predominantly drive gas-powered automobiles, but we're moving toward electric vehicles. The same is true in crypto. The original crypto systems used a mechanism for securing the blockchain called proof of work, which involves using a lot of energy, but there's a transition going on from that to a new technology called proof of stake, which is effectively carbon neutral.

Matt Hougan: (21:19)
Now, Bitcoin will be the last blockchain probably to make that transition, but we're on our way. So I think it's part of a positive environmental story. And then the flip side of that is ESG is more than just environmental, there's social and there's governance aspects to it. The real reason China is cracking down on crypto, I believe, is because it's sort of a tool of financial freedom. It's harder for governments to surveil and control than digital versions of their own cryptocurrencies, and so you often see regimes with more authoritarian bends trying to constrain the availability of Bitcoin for that market.

Matt Hougan: (21:57)
It also has this environmental impact, but that I think is a big piece of it. One thing about China, I think it was Fred Wilson, famous venture capitalist, said that on the internet investing in anything that China bans is usually a good bet, and I think that may be true with Bitcoin as well. Certainly, the network and the asset has weathered the China ban is you mentioned the fifth one pretty well. And long-term, I think, it's probably positive for the market.

Rachel Pether: (22:23)
I think that's a great point you made about ESG and as someone who sits in an emerging market, it's always interesting to see which sort of pieces of emphasis different parts of the world focus on, because certainly, you know, if you're looking at Africa or parts of the Middle East, you know, look at our neighbors, Lebanon, Iran, you know, different authoritarian regimes. And it's really the financial freedom aspect that people focus on, right? It's a bit easier for you guys in the US to focus on the environment.

Matt Hougan: (22:56)
I think that's so true and so important. It's the financial freedom aspect and it's the lowering of costs. Look, one of the most expensive things you can do in the financial market, is send remittances back overseas. The fees on that are absolutely absurd and crypto offers the potential to just collapse that. The humanitarian benefits are really significant, and I think people are starting to realize that's more of the story. And yeah, the environmental thing, we need to improve processes going that way. But that holistic picture, I think, is really important.

Rachel Pether: (23:28)
True story. I actually transferred $100 to someone in India today, and I'm not going to name the bank, but they charged me 100 dirhams, which is $27.

Matt Hougan: (23:42)
It's ridiculous.

Rachel Pether: (23:42)
I don't know where a 27% transfer fee comes from, but we can [inaudible 00:23:47].

Matt Hougan: (23:47)
That's incredible.

Rachel Pether: (23:50)
So you spend a lot of your day talking about the benefits and also the risks. What do you as Bitwise, as Matt, what do you see as some of the key risks?

Matt Hougan: (24:00)
Some of the key risks? Well, as mentioned, I think how the regulations break out, not just in the US, but in other major economies, which are wrestling with this new crypto industry that's now too big to ignore. I think that's one of the primary risks out there. That's the one I spend the most amount of my time on. The other risk to an individual investor, I will actually say the biggest risk is behavioral. This is a volatile asset, the price goes up and down, it's the best performing asset in the world over the last 1, 3, 5, and 10 years. But within that time span, it's had seven 70% plus pullbacks. So the biggest risk that I worry about for people investing is that they panic and sell at the wrong time, or they chase prices on the upside. So I worry about regulation, I worry about behavioral risk. And then I worry a little bit about story risks, which plays into both of those things.

Matt Hougan: (24:55)
You see things, like in the US, we had the colonial pipeline ransomware that was paid in Bitcoin. In the end, that turned out to be a good story for crypto because the Department of Justice was able to seize Bitcoin in a way they wouldn't have been with cash. But I worry that stories like that may influence regulators and cause them to overreact to some of the things that crypto enables. But those are my two big concerns.

Rachel Pether: (25:19)
And I would also think that, you know, when you're looking to insulate yourself against these risks, behavioral risk is a pretty hard thing to insulate against. So how do you as a firm insulate against those sort of risks, and how do you advise clients on not falling prey to some of the behavioral vices?

Matt Hougan: (25:40)
Yeah, I mean, it's a great question. One thing is that our core product, which is an index fund, is designed as a long-term investment. The beauty of an index fund like ours, that's rebalanced on a monthly basis, that's monitored 24/7, 365, is that investors don't have to respond to each piece of news. If Elon tweets something, or China does something, or a new technology emerges, the index fund adjust to that automatically. And I think that allows our investors to take a long-term view. As an example of that, in 2018, the last great crypto pullback, Bitwise had consistent inflows every week of the year. Our investors realized that that was a potential opportunity and not a material risk. So I think the product design can help with that.

Matt Hougan: (26:28)
And then education, and just emphasizing this is a long-term allocation. Crypto is not something that you should buy in the hope that it goes up next week, next month, or even next year. It's really as you abstract out and you look three, or five, or 10 years, that you start to get the right appreciation. I'll tell you one more anecdote. We surveyed a thousand financial advisors in January and asked them how many were allocating to crypto in their client portfolios. And the answer was about 9%, which was up significantly from a year ago, but still a relatively small number. But then we asked them, what do you think the price of Bitcoin will be in the next five years? And about a third of those advisors expected the price to triple or more over the next three years.

Matt Hougan: (27:16)
I think when you talk to people about where this industry is going, not tomorrow when you're worried about Senator Warren and the latest China news and the Elon tweet, but where is it going over the next decade, people realize that this is a big part of our future. And so keeping that in mind, I think helps people keep on the rails.

Rachel Pether: (27:33)
Mm-hmm (affirmative) And when you're looking at the cryptocurrencies, then, you know, you mentioned the proof of work and improve the stake in Bitcoin perhaps becoming one of the last to transition over, within your index funds, which sort of cryptocurrencies do you focus on? And I would say which to avoid, but I know there's thousands of cryptocurrencies, so maybe it's just easier to start with which you see as the most valuable.

Matt Hougan: (28:01)
Yeah, that's a great question. Our index, our core product, the Bitwise 10, holds the 10 largest cryptocurrencies that passed certain screens. So these are assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and certain defy assets like Eunice Swap. These are well-known global brand names that have been around for a while, have significant development activity, significant liquidity, and real thriving ecosystems. I think the message for people evaluating the space themselves, is as you get into the smaller crypto assets, your risk increases exponentially.

Matt Hougan: (28:36)
Some of the smaller assets are outright scams. Many of them don't have good disclosures around them, and then it's just very hard for a new asset to emerge and topple one of the larger assets, which have huge network effect benefits. So we really focus on Bitcoin, Ethereum, other large-cap assets, like Cardano, or Litecoin. And then these DeFi assets, decentralized finance assets, like Uniswap and Aave, which are really an interesting, exciting frontier for crypto. And that's where most people, that's the kind of space most people should be focused on.

Rachel Pether: (29:12)
So then one more clarification question from me, because when I first, you know, I was reading so much about DeFi, and then sort of a few months in I realized, "Oh gosh, I should probably work out what DeFi actually means." How do you describe DeFi to people that are unfamiliar with the space?

Matt Hougan: (29:30)
Great question. If you think about crypto as a technology that allows money to move onto the internet, you can think about DeFi as what happens if you can program money like software. So to give you a simple example, imagine you have a trust agreement that releases a certain amount of assets to your son when he turns 30. You probably have a lawyer that you pay, who waits until your son turns 30 and then releases the assets to him.

Matt Hougan: (29:56)
That's actually just an if-then statement. If John turns 30, release X. Anything that's an if-then Statement, you can program in software to do automatically without the high-priced lawyer in the middle. So what DeFi is, is essentially replacing that high priced lawyer with software. Software has disrupted almost every industry in the world, and yet in the financial space, it's done very little. What DeFi is doing is, is disrupting traditional financial services in the same way that Amazon disrupted Sears. And you have hugely successful projects like Uniswap, which is a decentralized crypto exchange, which is starting to challenge Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in terms of volume and pricing.

Matt Hougan: (30:41)
So this is a very exciting area of the market. If I were to pick one area of crypto with the most potential over the next 10 years, DeFi would probably be it. It has big risks, but it has that kind of, sort of once in a generation potential that I think a lot of investors look for.

Rachel Pether: (30:58)
That is a fantastic summary, I think that if-then statement just really boils it down to the basic premise. So again, I wish I'd talked to you a few months ago. And also then, maybe just, you know, looked at the past and what you're doing at the moment. If we're looking into the future, what is next for the Bitwise, maybe in the next sort of three to five-year horizon?

Matt Hougan: (31:24)
Yeah, our goal was to provide access products that give exposure to professional investors to every corner of crypto. So we started with the large-cap Space, we recently launched a DeFi index fund. You can expect to see more such funds from us, yield funds, other sector funds, single coin funds. We really think crypto, Bitcoin, blockchain is going to fundamentally transform the financial services industry as it exists around the globe. It's going to do it in a better way. And so Bitwise wants to be the leading provider, or a leading provider, of funds to professional investors in that space.

Matt Hougan: (32:02)
So we're really excited. It's going to be a lot of salmon and salmon lunches, a lot of talking about crypto, but I've never seen an industry growing as fast as this have. I've never seen this much venture capital and this much talent move into an industry before. It's really exciting to think about where it's going to be five, 10 years from now.

Rachel Pether: (32:23)
Well, that's great. Thank you so much for joining us, Matt, and I hope that you can also join us at SALT, New York in September. I promise we will have salmon on the menu if that entices you to come. But from my side, just thanks so much for sharing your thoughts and your wisdom, and also just for really being able to educate in the space in such a succinct and clear manner. So thanks so much for joining us today.

Matt Hougan: (32:49)
Thank you so much for having me, this was a great session.

Robert Breedlove: What is Money? | SALT Talks #240

“Bitcoin is a non-counterparty insurance policy on central banking. The more dollars or fiat they print, the more valuable Bitcoin becomes.”

Robert Breedlove describes the lesser known history of the Federal Reserve’s creation and its long-term negative effects. Breedlove explains his Bitcoin eureka moment and how game theory helped him understand the crypto asset’s value amidst an ever-expanding money supply. He projects Bitcoin’s medium- and long-term status and explains why he does not see any of the alternative crypto assets as a competitor. Finally, he describes some of the potential threats to Bitcoin from overly punitive governmental regulations.

Robert Breedlove is a freedom maximalist, ex-hedge fund manager, and philosopher in the Bitcoin space. To him, Bitcoin is fundamentally a humanitarian movement exposing the greatest con in human history: central banking. By learning about the connection between honest money, entrepreneurship, and civilization, we are renewing hope for the future of humanity. To this end, Robert's mission is to restore freedom, truth, and virtue in our world by tenaciously asking the question: "What is Money?"

He is also a YouTuber and the host of the “What Is Money?” podcast. Through his writing and media work, Robert aims to elucidate the importance of freedom and self-sovereignty across all spheres of human action. Find Robert on Twitter (@Breedlove22) where he posts about Bitcoin, macroeconomics, and philosophy.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

MODERATOR

SPEAKER

Headshot Resized.jpeg

Robert Breedlove

Founder & Chief Executive Officer

Parallax Digital

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 - Intro

2:45 - Federal Reserve’s founding and its negative effects

11:06 - Bitcoin eureka moment

12:24 - Inflation, stagflation and deflation

17:03 - Projecting out Bitcoin

23:55 - Evaluating Bitcoin dominance

29:44 - Threats to Bitcoin

35:04 - Bitcoin hash rates following China’s ban

36:54 - Potential Bitcoin crackdown in the US

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie: (00:07)
Hello everyone and welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is John Darsie. I'm the Managing Director of SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance, technology, and public policy. SALT Talks are a digital interview series that we started in 2020 with leading investors, creators, and thinkers. And our goal on these talks is the same as our goal at our SALT conferences, which we're excited to resume in September 2021 here in our home city of New York, but that goal is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And we're very excited today to bring you to the latest episode of our SALT Talks Digital Assets or Crypto series with Robert Breedlove.

John Darsie: (00:53)
If you're in the space, you likely know Robert. He has a fantastic podcast called What Is Money, something we'll talk about today. But he's a Freedom Maximalist, he's an ex-hedge fund manager, and he's a philosopher in the Bitcoin space, and he's also smarter than the rest of us because he lives in beautiful Hawaii where he gets to spend time in nature and think about the future of Bitcoin as well as plenty of other important topics as well. To him, Bitcoin is fundamentally a humanitarian movement exposing the greatest con in human history, central banking. By learning about the connection between honest money, entrepreneurship, and civilization we are renewing hope for the future of humanity in Robert's eyes. And to this end, Robert's mission is to restore freedom, truth, and virtue in our world by tenaciously asking the question, what is money? Again, the name of his fantastic podcast. We would highly recommend you go out and listen to every episode.

John Darsie: (01:48)
Hosting today's talk is Anthony Scaramucci, who's the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, which is a global alternative investment firm with over 500 million dollars of exposure to Bitcoin. So I know he and Robert see eye to eye on a lot of things related to Bitcoin, but without stealing anymore of that thunder I'm going to turn it over to Anthony for the interview.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:07)
Well, John, thank you and since I'm not the millennial here I'm the only one dressed, so I'm going to loosen my tie this way we can get into it a little bit. And Mr. Robert, obviously you're a brilliant guy. I read your stuff, I follow your podcast. Congratulations.

Robert Breedlove: (02:25)
Thank you.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:26)
You see something, but tell us when you started seeing something, so where was the eureka moment for you where you said, okay, I've got to own this, I've got to own it in size and then I've got to be a Maximalist or close to being a Maximalist about it?

Robert Breedlove: (02:46)
Yeah, it's a good question. I think the eureka moment was more of a process. It didn't exactly hit me quite like a bolt of lightning. But I had this foundation before Bitcoin in that in about, I think it was 2005, I had been going down the central banking rabbit hole and I got a lot of insight from G. Edward Griffin's, The Creature from Jekyll Island, which is a book that discusses the founding of the Federal Reserve, which is the latest and dominant implementation of central banking in the world.

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:23)
[crosstalk 00:03:23] Sorry, I don't want to interrupt you, but we have a lot of young listeners.

Robert Breedlove: (03:26)
Sure thing.

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:26)
So The Creature from Jekyll Island, basically Jekyll Island is off the coast of Georgia.

Robert Breedlove: (03:32)
That's right.

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:34)
At the 1910, '11, '12, in that time frame they were organizing what would ultimately be the third nationalized banking system, if you will, central bank.

Robert Breedlove: (03:46)
That's right.

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:47)
The other two failed.

Robert Breedlove: (03:48)
That's right.

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:49)
They're off the coast of Jekyll Island and they're conspiring to put this together and it's a little bit of a nefarious story. So tell us about the nefarious nature of that story and again, the book is called The Creature from Jekyll Island.

Robert Breedlove: (04:02)
Yeah, that's right. I think what you alluded to there is there were two failed implementations of central banking in the U.S. and actually, my favorite Tennessean, former President Andrew Jackson, I think he was notorious for keeping... One of the charters expired and there's also a story, I'm not sure if it's apocryphal or not, of him punching a central banker in the face at one of these conventions.

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:27)
Yeah, so in H.W. Brands' book on Andrew Jackson, he was a combative, spirited person. Obviously, he was a populist.

Robert Breedlove: (04:36)
Yep.

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:37)
He didn't like central banking because he thought that there was a ripoff scheme in central banking and so he did punch one of the central bankers in the face. You got the story correct and he allowed that banking charter to expire.

Robert Breedlove: (04:52)
Yes.

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:53)
And it was based on his common sense assertion that the central bank was going to be pre-disposed to corrupting the money.

Robert Breedlove: (05:02)
That's right.

Anthony Scaramucci: (05:04)
But after the panic of 1907, there was a huge liquidity crisis in the American banking system and so a guy by the name of John Pierpont Morgan stepped in. He was the only bank that had the liquidity and capital and he stepped in and liquified the other banks and of course, this pissed off the government because it made J.P. Morgan arguably the most powerful person in the United States, if not the world. And so they moved themselves off of the coast to Jekyll Island to build this central bank.

Robert Breedlove: (05:37)
Yes.

Anthony Scaramucci: (05:37)
You take it from there. Go ahead, Mr. Breedlove.

Robert Breedlove: (05:39)
Yeah-

Anthony Scaramucci: (05:40)
[crosstalk 00:05:40] How have I been so far? Am I doing all right?

Robert Breedlove: (05:42)
... No, you're... I really appreciate the fine detail because I tend to describe things in broad strokes, so I think it adds a lot of context. But to your point, so the implementation of the Federal Reserve was the third attempt at a central bank in the United States. It was done in a very covert fashion. These men were transported to Jekyll Island in a very secretive manner. They were carrying hunting rifles, so that was kind of a cover story for the trip. And long short is they basically passed... They developed the legislation that would become the Federal Reserve Act that would be passed, I think it was either on Christmas Day or the day after Christmas in Congress. And it was basically pitched as a resolution to the banking crisis that you just mentioned. It's like hey, we're going to implement this central bank. We won't have anymore of these liquidity crises. Like any state measure it was pitched as a resolution to chaos, when in fact it is a mechanism for control.

Robert Breedlove: (06:49)
So accurate to Andrew Jackson's foresight, the Federal Reserve was implemented. There's a great read too, Rothbard wrote a piece on America's Great Depression, which actually describes how instrumental the Federal Reserve was in creating the Great Depression, which is contrary to a lot of Keynesian belief, that it was actually gold somehow that caused the Great Depression, or going off of gold. So it is an institution that is the ultimate rent seeker, if you will. They just control the medium through which we all interact and interface in the commercial environment. It was done in secret and it was done... The wool was pulled over an unwary public's eyes, because they did not by this point understand the evils and failures of central banking that people had endured in England. A lot of the reason this country was founded as a decentralized federal model was because it was intended to resist a central authority like this, like a central bank coming to power. And I think that's why people like Andrew Jackson were so resistant to it.

Robert Breedlove: (08:10)
And we've seen the experiment run, right? We've seen this experiment run several times before. 1971 we went off the gold standard and it's hard to find a socioeconomic metric that has not become worse in the past 50 years. We're sitting here now in 2021, 50 years after breaking the peg to gold. So I think this is what my show and my work attempts to go deeply into, is that I think the corruption of the money and the unmooring of the money from the discipline and honesty that gold enforces on political actors and socioeconomic development more broadly is the reason we're seeing so much crisis in the world, cultural crisis, economic crisis, debt crisis, currency crisis. Now, we're starting to see the effects of inflation. I think the next 10 to 15 years are going to be really brutal. We're already seeing labor shortages. I think you're going to see price controls and capital controls coming to the fore over the next 10 years as well.

Robert Breedlove: (09:21)
So we're deep into the consequences of corrupt money and I think that's why many of us in Bitcoin are so passionate about what we do because we think it's the only viable alternative to have a functioning global economy.

Anthony Scaramucci: (09:36)
Okay, so let me test some things out on you and I want to get your reaction to it because obviously, we're in intellectual agreement and I think we see the world very similarly. You probably got there ahead of me. I'm more of a Wall Streeter if you will, more of an institutionalist, so it took me a minute to assess the landscape and get to where you are. But I want to test some things out on you because I think we're having something happen right now that's contemporaneous and very weird. We have asset inflation and we have inflation spiking on some goods and services like oil, fuel, some consumption oriented things, food prices. But at the flip side, we're having some deflationary forces at the same time where the long bond is going back down, the two, three, five year treasury of the United States trading about 100 basis points, let's just call it roughly there, there's a flatness there.

Anthony Scaramucci: (10:34)
Robert, in the 1970s we had something called stagflation and you had high unemployment, but you also had inflation at the same time. They couldn't figure it out. We have in-deflation right now, I'm coining that term right here on the SALT Talk, we have contemporaneous inflation in certain parts of the society and deflation happening at the same time. Am I right about that? And if I am right about that, why is that happening?

Robert Breedlove: (11:06)
Yeah, these are two of the most confusing terms in finance I believe. I'd like to first, I realized I didn't answer your first question about the eureka moment. So I had this broad understanding of central banking that led to my discovery of Bitcoin and I would just add this for the audience, it's a deep intellectual journey, I think, to understand Bitcoin. You need to answer the question what is money, you need to understand why gold became money, then you understand why Bitcoin is better. The eureka moment for me I will say is in the study of game theory though. I think the realization that money is really just a reflection of time or a tool for trading time that every market actor will voluntarily adopt the most inflation resistant money. That is what the free market will naturally select for. That's what gold was.

Robert Breedlove: (11:56)
And then when you come to understand that Bitcoin is the only money with zero percent terminal inflation, the self interest of every market actor globally will zero in on Bitcoin as money. So I think that, just to answer the eureka moment, I think if you can compile your hours of studying the multiple disciplines necessary to understand Bitcoin, but you cap it off with some game theory and you realize that, that functions at every level. That's individual, corporate, and nation state level.

Robert Breedlove: (12:24)
To get to inflation, stagflation, deflation, I think you're absolutely correct. The term inflation is typically used ambiguously. People don't know if you mean consumer price inflation, which is how the government typically identifies it. Clearly, asset inflation, which is going to be the nominal price increase in assets is another definition. And then the term that I... When I use the term inflation, I specifically refer to arbitrary increases in the fiat currency supply. So this centrally planned market manipulation that induces the first two forms of inflation, both asset and consumer price, that is what I think needs to be eradicated from the world and from our lexicon. We don't even need this term inflation to exist because basically what it represents is theft implemented directly into the money.

Robert Breedlove: (13:25)
We have systemic theft implemented directly into the medium, which is intended to be the trust minimized asset for commercial engagement. Right? We actually have a backdoor built into it, a tech backdoor if you will, that central banks use to siphon wealth and arbitrarily misallocate, they would say allocate, I would say misallocate capital. The deflationary forces that we are facing, these are specifically price deflation, typically in the consumer price realm, and this is the byproduct of exponentially advancing technology, right? There's a reason the zero marginal cost distribution of Netflix allows the price to get lower although, they're actually increasing their prices which is funny, probably because they're a monopoly.

Robert Breedlove: (14:18)
The ability to distribute these software products, whether it's Microsoft, Netflix, Amazon, with basically no cost of distribution is something that adds to the deflationary pressure of prices and the things being distributed. So you have this confluence of factors, we have the digital age emerging where exchange is being conducted much more frictionlessly, the cost of distribution is collapsing in many sectors, all of this would pull down prices. Additionally, there's essentially more economic surplus being created in the private sector, but you have that converging with this force of additional fiat currency supply inflation so that the central bank is actually using monopolized money to harvest the economic surplus being created in the private sector, which is growing exponentially in the digital age.

Robert Breedlove: (15:21)
So I guess the short answer would be, you would expect to see wild fluctuations and distortions. Energy intensive items will tend to go up in price, right? No matter how much we innovate, we're not going to get any better at making rib eye steak, for instance, necessarily much more efficiently or more quickly. I think that monetary inflation is just going to create a lot of confusion in the world. I tweeted out this quote from Henry Hazlitt yesterday from Economics in One Lesson, and just the last line of the quote was, "Inflation tends to create a thousand illusions." So I think that's what we're going to be suffering from over the next 10 years is that it will be very difficult for market actors to make sense of pricing because of so much policy intervention. It will be difficult to disentangle that from supply and demand fundamentals.

Anthony Scaramucci: (16:21)
Very well said, I didn't want to interrupt any of that because I think it's a brilliant analysis of what's going on. So make the case for Bitcoin and make the case for your thinking about Bitcoin, because you're a long-term investor. Obviously, Bitcoin has oscillated a little bit, it had... I think this time last year it was probably $8,000.00 or $9,000.00, it's trading at $29,000.00 right now. That would be a phenomenal return to anybody, except for the psychology, Robert, where people saw it at $64,000.00.

Robert Breedlove: (16:50)
That's right.

Anthony Scaramucci: (16:52)
Of course there are some people who bought it up there, and so they're bruised by it. So tell us about the near term, the intermediate term, and the long-term case for Bitcoin.

Robert Breedlove: (17:02)
Sure thing. So I would say the near term, in my perspective, is that I still believe the supply and demand fundamentals of Bitcoin are what is currently driving its price cycles. So as we all know, we have an inflation rate having pre-programmed into Bitcoin every four years. Historically, we've seen price run-ups, U.S. dollar Bitcoin price run-ups. The peak typically occurs, I think it's 510 days average post halving, so the general theory is that every time you constrict the new issuance of Bitcoin by 50% at the halving event, holding demand neutral or constant, that creates upward pressure on the price. The market tends to get out over its skis quite a bit. There's a lot of hype, a lot of FOMO, people pile in, it does a large parabolic move, and then it has sharp corrections downward.

Robert Breedlove: (18:05)
I am of the belief that, that pattern still holds until proven otherwise. Now, that said, that would have a price peak occurring, I think, mid October 2021. We would expect to see a new all time high, which would be above the $64,000.00 local peak. That said, we have this sort of anomalous event in China where there's been massive crackdown on Bitcoin mining, and a lot of those miners have been boxed up and shipped elsewhere. The hardware itself was... The market was soft, let's just say, there was kind of a duress liquidation of a lot of this mining equipment, so there are macro factors playing into this cycle that we haven't seen previously. This could either break the pricing cycle, if $64,000.00 proved to be the peak and we saw Bitcoin continue to draw down over the next 12 months, then I would have to throw out my theory of the halving cycle purely driving its price going forward. We'll have to start to account for more of these extraneous factors.

Robert Breedlove: (19:19)
Mid-term, say medium term, five to 10 year, I think Bitcoin is going to perform extremely well. The simple elevator pitch I give is Bitcoin is a non-counter party insurance policy on central banking. The more dollars or fiat they print, the more valuable it becomes. Clearly, we are printing money, we're expanding the money supply at an accelerating rate. I would expect that insurance policy to do really well over the next five to 10 years. And then longer term, I think it's the most important asset you can hold, frankly. It is the only asset in the world that no one, no singular interest can control, manipulate, regulate, change the rules of, assuming you custody it properly, cannot even be confiscated. It's really an evolution in property rights.

Robert Breedlove: (20:19)
This country again, was founded on this core natural law thesis of the right to life, liberty, and property. We've replaced that third one with pursuit of happiness, which I think is a big mistake. I don't think you should pursue happiness in life, I think you should pursue responsibility as Jordan Peterson teaches us. Happiness is a nice byproduct if you lead a responsible life. But that third one, property, that is the basis of civilization. If we don't have property rights that we know we can go and invest our labor into projects, and creating value for others, and reap the value that we create, store the fruits of our labor in something secure that we can then redeem for help from others, for services from others, then civilization breaks down. Then we're all just going to be out here... It regresses you to a caveman like state. If you don't have property, how do you create civilization?

Robert Breedlove: (21:23)
If you read a little bit of Ayn Rand, this is the basis of civilization. There is no other fruitful, or peaceful, or cooperative action among humans without property, and inflation is a violation of private property rights. We are arbitrarily allocating wealth from the hands of some into others. So long-term, I think Bitcoin is the solution to this dissolution of civilization through the violation of property.

Anthony Scaramucci: (21:55)
So you said a lot there. I'll probably steal that from you, Robert, because it's such a good line.

Robert Breedlove: (22:03)
It's a free market for ideas, take it away. [crosstalk 00:22:05]

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:05)
It's okay, it's no problem, because I'm not going give anybody footnotes. I still a lot of my ideas from John Darsie, I might add as well.

Robert Breedlove: (22:11)
All good.

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:11)
So I'm a plagiarizer, but I think it's a brilliant statement that inflation is property theft, because it's your time and your labor and the government is devaluing... You're using your time and your labor in exchange for fiat currency and the government is devaluing the fiat currency, so it's thieving your time and your labor.

Robert Breedlove: (22:31)
That's right.

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:31)
I think it's very well said. It can't be overstated. Ben Franklin, obviously Jefferson wrote property, you may remember this. John Adams and Ben Franklin proofread the Declaration of Independence and it was Franklin that suggested the pursuit of happiness. This was a John Locke idea. Remember, he was another philosopher in the great Enlightenment. And Franklin said that if you have life, and liberty, and you're pursuing happiness, the property itself would take care of itself, was what his point of view is, and they inserted that. So there's been a big debate over the 245 years about property and happiness, but I am in agreement with you that property is a central element for all of us because it gives us a sense of ownership in our temporal world, but also it's something we're holding, and we worked hard on, and we can transfer to our children.

Anthony Scaramucci: (23:28)
That bring me to another very, very big question, which is about Bitcoin and Bitcoin's ability to continue to be the apex predator in the space. Is that something that you're fully confident in? Do you think something like Ethereum can creep in? Is there room for other digital currencies that have fixed supplies? What's your opinion there?

Robert Breedlove: (23:53)
Yeah, so I draw a pretty bright line in the crypto asset universe and that line is between Bitcoin and all other alternative crypto assets, endearingly called shitcoins by many Bitcoin Maximalists and others. And the analogy I use is that Bitcoin itself is more akin to the internet. The internet itself actually is a set of open source protocols, so some of them you've probably heard of, TCP/IP, HTTP, SMTP, et cetera. It's this stack of open source protocols for moving information without asking anyone permission basically and they interlock, and they inter-operate in a way that essentially no one entity controls. And that's what... The open, permissionless nature of the internet is what allows it to render so much value to the world.

Robert Breedlove: (24:55)
There was a time back in the mid-90s when we were struggling to get our language around the internet, the information superhighway, and all these other terms. And at that time intranets were a competing force, that people thought these private, permissioned intranets would be the wave of the future, that the open permissionless internet would not have as much of a place because corporations would just insert their large, privately controlled intranets in its place. So that model clearly played out to the favor of the internet and I don't think there's any intranets hardly around today. And the reason is, is because an open network inherently out competes a closed source network.

Robert Breedlove: (25:44)
So in a closed source network, you have a smaller development team, you have boundaries, and security cost, and rules to develop and enforce. There's a lot of cost with protecting that private turf, if you will, that the open network does not incur. It has... Anyone can participate, the rules are voluntarily adopted, if you don't like the rules of it you can fork it and do your own thing, so it's very open and permissionless. It does not accrue these regulatory and enforcement costs that a closed source network does. That's why the internet out competes intranets and I view Bitcoin as essentially the latest layer in the internet. It is... Just like the layers of the internet allow us to move information without permission, we now have the Bitcoin layer that allows us to move economic value without permission. It sits right on top of the internet protocol suite, augments it, and complements it in many ways.

Robert Breedlove: (26:45)
All of the alternative crypto assets I view more through the lens of intranet, that they've actually gone, copied and pasted Bitcoins code, modified it, and they are using it to either attempt to compete directly with Bitcoin as money, which I think is a failed value proposition for reasons I've outlined in a lot of my writing. Or they're trying to address other market niches, there's 10,000 of them out there. So I don't think the flipping of Bitcoin, Bitcoin as digital gold, which is a very apt analogy once you understand the importance of gold in the world today, I don't think it is being threatened by any alternative crypto asset whatsoever. I see Bitcoin as competitive to gold, sovereign bonds, fiat currency, other stores of value. I think it will absorb monetary premium from real estate, oil, et cetera.

Robert Breedlove: (27:44)
Alternative crypto assets I consider today as liquid venture capital subjected to little, if any due diligence. So some of them may succeed in some market niches. I would say that all of the value propositions that I have seen in the alternative crypto asset space remain theoretical. I haven't seen anything quote unquote prove itself. You could marginally argue Ethereum has succeeded but again, these are really good questions because we don't even know the criteria. How do you define success of an alternative crypto asset? I'm not even really sure about this. So one number I like to look at is the realized cap, which is... It's basically the cost basis for all the long-term holders of a crypto asset and the realized cap for Bitcoin just crossed 100 billion back in August 2019, I believe. So if we use that as our threshold metric, then really Bitcoin just became quote unquote market proven about two years ago.

Robert Breedlove: (28:54)
Today, Ethereum it's well below that now, it's probably in the 40, 30 to 40 billion dollar realized cap range. If you use that as your threshold, if we see Ethereum trade above 100 billion realized cap and hold that, then maybe my arguments bust and we've seen one successful alternative crypto asset. But again, these questions are very nuanced and it comes down to your framework for evaluation. How do you determine success in the marketplace? So no [flippiting 00:29:27] I think would be the short answer, but there is the possibility that some of this other venture capital could succeed.

Anthony Scaramucci: (29:36)
Before I turn it over to John who's got a series of questions for you, Robert, what are the greatest true long-term risks to Bitcoin?

Robert Breedlove: (29:44)
Yeah, the greatest known unknown, to use a Rumsfeld term, is the state response. Right? We know that Bitcoin is engineered to be an enemy of the state effectively. It is something that demonopolizes the tool that has been most monopolized throughout the history of government. I think it was Kissinger who said that if a state controls the money, the food, and the energy that they basically control the population in its entirety. Money is one that historically was easier to control because gold had these natural centralizing tendencies. Right? There were a lot of economies of scale by centralizing the custody of gold and issuing paper redeemable for gold, so this gave governments an attack vector to control the money.

Robert Breedlove: (30:49)
So I think that... I'm sorry, I may have veered from the original question. What was the original question?

Anthony Scaramucci: (30:55)
Just the long-term risks [crosstalk 00:30:57].

Robert Breedlove: (30:57)
Long-term risks. So the state response in what we're seeing in China today, are we entering that now they fight you phase. I think Bitcoin has been somewhat disregarded up until this point as a joke, or not quite a threat, but when it got to a trillion dollar market cap it seemed like a lot of people started to pay much closer attention. That is when this latest Chinese response against miners and people participating in the financial ecosystem seemed to ramp up as well. So in the long run I think states ultimately have to... They are incentivized to interact with the Bitcoin network and support it so that they can generate essentially a tax base from the economic activity that it will usher in. But in the short run, I do think you're going to see more of these attempts at governments cracking down or controlling Bitcoin.

Robert Breedlove: (32:08)
That's in the sphere of the known unknowns. The unknown unknowns, which are just pure black swan events, which by definition I can hardly talk about because if I could describe them in detail they wouldn't be black swans. I think that is the greatest threat to Bitcoin, and as someone looking to make a risk adjusted bet on something that's actually what you want to see. You want to have identified all the possible risk vectors and be left with nothing but an unknown unknown possibility of hurting your investment. So in that camp I would put a technical flaw of some kind that we have not foreseen, some breaking in elliptic curve cryptography, which would break the commercial internet itself by the way. So it's not like just Bitcoin is singularly vulnerable here. You could say some broader cosmological event, I don't know like an EMP burst or a supernova that affected things. So I guess, we know the state's going to do something about it.

Anthony Scaramucci: (33:19)
The alien announcement and the UFOs landing, you're okay with that one?

Robert Breedlove: (33:22)
The alien announcement I would think is more in the bucket of the known unknowns at this point. I think the state may actually... It seems like they're kind of warming people up to that idea, that will be the next lockdowns we go into, alien lockdowns, or global warming lockdowns. Just if I zoom way out, I see an antiquated organizational model called the nation state vying to maintain its relevance in the digital age where we just don't need... We don't need the organizing influence of coercion nearly as much as we used to because we have voluntary networks like the internet and Bitcoin. That's the larger transition I think taking place and yeah, the risks to Bitcoin for me are minimal enough relative to its upside that I do believe it is the best risk adjusted bet still in the world today.

Anthony Scaramucci: (34:25)
John Darsie.

John Darsie: (34:26)
I want to ask you a couple quick questions before we go, Robert, one's about Bitcoin mining. So obviously China's crypto ban has had this big negative impact on hashrate, and whether it's causation or correlation hashrate traditionally has been correlated with Bitcoin price and we're continuing to see these downward adjustments. Obviously, Bitcoin rewards have gone up commiserate with that. Do you think that China's ban and this downward pressure on hashrate is a long-term concern? Or where do you think the trajectory of Bitcoin mining geographically and directionally is going?

Robert Breedlove: (35:04)
Yeah, I think long-term it's a benefit actually to have so much hashrate leaving China. I think the numbers were upward of 70% at one point and were all within just the Chinese jurisdiction, so that's actually reducing the risk overall in the long run. Short run though, hashrate, I believe, the last I looked, it's been a few months, it tends to precede price a little bit. There's a bit of correlation there. As far as whether hash rate and price are causative or correlative, I actually think it's a feedback loop where the... It's programmed into Bitcoin essentially, but as the hashrate increases the network is essentially becoming more secure so that the store of value properties of Bitcoin are increased, which in theory would increase demand for its utility as a store of value. So I do think they have this reciprocal interaction.

Robert Breedlove: (36:07)
Yeah, so long term I think it's a boon, short term could be very depressive to price and could contribute to a breakdown in this pricing cycle, which I still believe in until I see otherwise.

John Darsie: (36:22)
And in terms of government, let's say the United States government comes through and decides they don't like Bitcoin. Elizabeth Warren wins out, Janet Yellen, and the Federal Reserve, and all the other financial regulators got together on Monday, we're talking about the stable coin market, but generally people in the Biden administration don't love Bitcoin. If they were to come out and say, you know what, we're going to either tax it very punitively or ban it in some shape or form, do you think Bitcoin survives? And what form does it survive?

Robert Breedlove: (36:54)
Yeah, punitive taxation would definitely contribute to the incentive to hold long-term. So I think that would be positive for creating pressure on existing holders to continue to hold, but it would also likely delay further institutional adoption or other larger capital pools coming into the space. I think if there was a hard crackdown in the United States you're... Again, every time one jurisdiction presses down, as China's doing now, they're creating incentives for other jurisdictions to both tolerate and accept mining and build out additional financial services infrastructure into Bitcoin. And you could say that you're seeing some of that in the likes of El Salvador where they've said enough of this and have decided to make it a legal tender.

Robert Breedlove: (37:50)
So long run I think Bitcoin is going to continue to do its thing in the free market. We're basically seeing Gresham's Law play out. Again, initially at an individual level and that game theory percolates itself up due to corporate and ultimately nation state, central bank, sovereign wealth fund level. But there's going to be... They're going to fight back, they're going to press back as well, so that might be what we're starting to see. I forget, what is the Gandhi progression where it's like first they laugh at you, then they something, then they fight you, then you win. We might be going into that fight you stage. That might be what the beginning of this is.

Robert Breedlove: (38:34)
But then the other thing about the U.S., at least today as we still have this decentralized model, so we have people like Greg Abbott in Texas that are vying to get hashrate into Texas. There's a lot of surplus energy production there, which means that energy producers are basically leaving money on the table and I think as this realization dawns on them that they can just monetize a lot of this currently curtailed energy production, that you're going to see the market continue to defuse and enhance the Bitcoin hashrate globally.

John Darsie: (39:12)
All right, Robert. Well, we're going to leave it there. I wish we had three hours to do sort of long form conversations the way you do on your What is Money podcast, but we try to keep these at about 40, 45 minutes. But this has been fantastic, we hope to have you on again soon to pick up the conversation maybe a year or so down the line.

Robert Breedlove: (39:31)
Sure thing.

John Darsie: (39:32)
[crosstalk 00:39:32] But keep doing what you're doing. We love your podcast. Whatismoneypodcast.com, you can find Robert's fantastic work there. Again, we highly recommend it. Anthony, you have a final word for Robert before we let him go?

Anthony Scaramucci: (39:43)
Well, listen, I think that... I applaud you for your vision, Robert and I want to stay close to you and follow what you're doing because I know that you're seeing around the corner with those laser eyes that you have on Twitter. I put the laser eyes on as well, it's not coming as quickly as you and I both thought, but I do think what you're saying about this trend and the phenomena of having permanency of capital in things like Bitcoin is something that I think we're moving towards. That standard is something that's coming.

Robert Breedlove: (40:13)
Yeah, agreed. It's gradually then suddenly, right? So I hope to continue to establish some vision for us to work towards because a lot of people are struggling in the current structure at every level. So I hope to at least paint a picture of where we could be versus where we are today.

Anthony Scaramucci: (40:34)
Well, we appreciate it. Thank you for joining us.

Robert Breedlove: (40:37)
Yep.

John Darsie: (40:38)
And thank you everybody for tuning into today's SALT Talk with Robert Breedlove. Just a reminder, if you missed any part of this talk or any of our previous SALT Talks, you can access them on our website on demand at salt.org/talks or on our YouTube channel, which is called SALT Tube. We're also on social media, Twitter is where we're most active @SALTConference, but we're also on LinkedIn, Instagram, and Facebook as well. And please spread the word about these SALT Talks, but on behalf of Anthony and the entire SALT team this is John Darsie signing off from SALT Talks for today. We hope to see you back here again soon.

Transforming Financial Services | SALT Talks #237

“Satoshi Nakamoto solved one of the hardest problems in computer science: distributed trust. It showed a way to build an application such that the data’s decentralized. I would argue that crypto can’t succeed if Bitcoin doesn’t succeed.”

Asiff Hirji and Kyle Samani describe their crypto journeys and how they’re engaging with the blockchain-powered technology. Samani talks about why he was drawn to Ethereum and Hirji explains why he left his role as COO at Coinbase to join Figure, a start-up that uses crypto rails in the home equity lending space. Both guests offer their concerns around misguided crypto regulations in the US, particularly after China’s recent banning of decentralized cryptocurrencies.

Asiff Hirji is the President of Figure Technologies, Inc. (‘‘Figure’’), a blockchain-based home equity lender since January 2020. Kyle Samani is a Managing Partner at Multicoin Capital, a thesis-driven investment firm that invests in cryptocurrencies, tokens, and blockchain companies reshaping trillion-dollar markets. Prior to joining Figure, Mr. Hirji served as President and COO of Coinbase, Inc. (‘‘Coinbase’’), where he helped significantly grow the company’s revenue and valuation.

As a former engineer, Kyle leads technical thesis formation and diligence. He is the more outwards facing partner, owning relationships with entrepreneurs and other investors. He is widely recognized in the crypto ecosystem for his writing and system-level analysis.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKERS

resized-image-Promo-3.png

Asiff Hirji

President

Figure

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Kyle Samani

Managing Partner

Multicoin Capital

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 - Intro

3:27 - Entry into crypto

8:42 - Value of Ethereum

12:40 - Using crypto for home equity lending

17:30 - Interesting use cases for blockchain applications

24:30 - Impact of securitized crypto products

28:50 - Ethereum competitors

32:45 - Using crypto payment rails

36:45 - Concerns around crypto regulations

40:51 - China’s ban of decentralized crypto

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie: (00:07)
Hello, everyone. And welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is John Darsie, I'm the managing director of SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance, technology and public policy. SALT Talks are a digital interview series that we started in 2020 with leading investors, creators, and thinkers. And our goal on these talks is the same as our goal at our SALT Conferences, which we're excited to resume here in September of 2021 in our home city of New York. But that goal is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future.

John Darsie: (00:46)
And if you've been a recurring listener or watcher of our SALT Talks, you know of our enthusiasm for the crypto or the digital asset space, and we're very excited to bring you our latest episode of our digital assets series with two fantastic founders and executives in that space. Those two guests that I'm referring to are Asiff Hirji and Kyle Samani. Asiff is the president of Figure, which is a blockchain-based home equity lender. And prior to joining Figure, Asiff was the chief operating officer and president at Coinbase. Prior to that, he was an operating advisor at Andreessen Horowitz, chief restructuring officer of Hewlett-Packard, and served as the president and COO of TD Ameritrade.

John Darsie: (01:32)
Asiff also held senior leadership positions at TPG Capital, Saxo Bank, Hewlett-Packard, and Bain Capital, and is served on a number of public and private boards, including Citrix Systems. Kyle Samani is the co-founder and managing partner at Multicoin Capital, which is a thesis-driven investment firm that invests in cryptocurrencies, tokens and blockchain technology. In his current role, Kyle helps identify market opportunities and sets the strategic direction of the firm.

John Darsie: (01:59)
Prior to Multicoin, Kyle co founded Pristine, which is an enterprise software company that enables desk-less workers with solutions for smart glasses. And under his leadership as CEO, Pristine grew to millions in revenue and raised over five million in venture funding before being acquired by Upskill in 2017. Kyle is based in Austin, Texas, and holds a degree in finance and management from NYU Stern, and has been programming since he was about 10 years old, definitely way ahead of me on that one.

John Darsie: (02:30)
But hosting today's talk is me. Again, I'm John Darsie, I'm a managing director at SALT as well as a director of business development at SkyBridge Capital, which is a global alternative investment firm. That was about eight billion in assets. We also were the first [for-React 00:02:45] fund and the first fund of hedge funds to make a direct allocation into Bitcoin. And we currently have about $500 million of exposure into Bitcoin in our flagship products. But I want to start off, Asiff, I read a little about your bio, but I want to hear more from the horse's mouth.

John Darsie: (03:02)
You were at TD Ameritrade, you were the president and COO. You also have worked at some of the most respected investment institutions in the world, Bain Capital, TPG, Andreessen Horowitz. What convinced you as somebody that has this diverse background that it was time to dive head first into the crypto space, into the digital asset space that you did at Coinbase and now at Figure?

Asiff Hirji: (03:25)
Thanks for inviting me to this. Look, I've been an operator, entrepreneur, investor in fintech for over 30 years. I started initially in things like direct banks and insurers. And I would tell you, I'm a software engineer by background, so to me, very simplistically, we've been to two waves and we're now going to the third wave of innovation in financial services. The first wave was we went off mainframes and onto distributed computing, protocol-led, Internet1, great businesses being built including things like Ameritrade and so on. Basically, what we did was we made it self service.

Asiff Hirji: (03:55)
We took things that you had to go into a bank or a teller to do and we made them self service on the internet with a web browser. And that lowered costs and increased inclusion, but fundamentally, it didn't alter the cost structure. The next thing we did was when we went from distributed to mobile cloud, and that made things like the phone ubiquitous, it made lots of different types of products available. Again, all you did was you took the application and shoved it further out towards the user. It lowered some costs, but still didn't fundamentally attack the cost structure of financial services.

Asiff Hirji: (04:26)
We're now about to go through the third wave, and that's from mobile cloud to decentralized, or blockchain, if you prefer. And for the first time, we're actually affecting where the data is. The data is no longer on a central computer somewhere, the data is now distributed out to the users. You control your own data, Kyle controls his own data, I control my own data. And the fundamental thing that blockchain does is it gets rid of the intermediaries. The financial services system we have today is built such that you have to have a whole bunch of trusted intermediaries in every transaction, because that's the only way you can ensure that if I want to pay you, John, some amount of money, that my bank takes it from my account, sends it through the pipes to your bank, who then ultimately gets it to your account.

Asiff Hirji: (05:08)
And every single intermediary along the way there charges a fee. With blockchain, you can have peer-to-peer, bilateral, risk-free, real-time settlement. And that means I can send you money as easily as it would be for me to send you an email. As long as I have your address, I can send it to you and there's no settlement risk, and it just settles. And that means that the cost structure crashes for financial transactions. And so that's why I'm excited about crypto in general, which is, I think it'll fundamentally rewrite the way we do financial transactions. It'll make financial services more or less free. So this whole concept of the un-banked and under-banked will go away because you'll have financial inclusion.

Asiff Hirji: (05:45)
And best of all, you will be able to create this with far less capital being deployed, far less complexity, and you'll get rid of a number of the issues that we've had most recently with things like say the GameStop situation, or what happened with Robinhood, etc. None of those things can happen in a bilateral, risk-free settlement mechanism that crypto allows.

John Darsie: (06:05)
And Kyle, you come from a programming background, an engineering background. What was your Eureka moment as a young man deciding that you wanted to make crypto or digital assets your career?

Kyle Samani: (06:18)
Yeah. In early 2016 after I had stepped down from Pristine, I was trying to figure out what I wanted to do next with my life. I had studied finance at NYU and always had an interest in the intersection of software and finance. I started playing around with some of the Stripe's API, this is like February, March, 2016. And I got to the limit of them pretty quickly, which is basically Stripe made it really easy to accept credit card payments as a merchant. And I remember I had some ideas I was struggling with, and one of the ideas I remember I had is that I wanted to do something where as a user, I could go to a website and I could receive payment as a user quickly, like within five to 25 seconds, depending on my identity or some action I conducted or something.

Kyle Samani: (07:04)
And I just assumed that Stripe was the payments company, top dog. I just assumed that Stripe made it really easy as a consumer, you can get paid reasonably quickly. And what I learned real quickly after digging into Stripe's API's is that, A, that's, that was wrong. And that even still to this day as a consumer, if you go to a website, getting paid is very, very difficult. Paying is okay, I wouldn't say it's great, typing in a credit card and paying is okay, but getting paid sucks, and I realized that limitation.

Kyle Samani: (07:35)
I discovered about Ethereum and it dawned on me quite quickly that with Ethereum, I could go to any website and I could get paid theoretically in seconds. And then I started exploring what else you could do with Ethereum, and I realized that it was fully programmable extensible money. And when that light bulb went off, it struck me as a very, very important idea in technology. And so over the course of 2016, I started reading and learning about the space and investing my own money and time. By the spring of 2017, I had developed a full time internet hobby and made a decision to do that professionally instead of just personally.

Kyle Samani: (08:08)
And so I made the decision to launch multi point in May of '17 and we launched our hedge fund on October 1st of '17.

John Darsie: (08:15)
And we often come at these talks through the lens of Bitcoin as most people's gateway drug into crypto or DeFi, but you're not a Bitcoin-first evangelist within the crypto space, you're much more Ethereum first. And then obviously, Multicoin, you guys are investing in series of protocols. What did you like about Ethereum and what didn't excite you about Bitcoin? And to this day, how do you look at the differences between those two platforms?

Kyle Samani: (08:44)
Generally speaking, a lot of those sources of confusion, both inside of crypto and among new folks who are getting into crypto is the split between what I'll call the money crypto people and the tech crypto people. The money crypto people tend to have an econ background or tend to be focused on libertarian ideals of sovereignty and ownership and central-banks-inflated monetary base and all those kinds of things. Those were obviously the first people to get into crypto because that's what espoused Bitcoin.

Kyle Samani: (09:17)
And the tech people have only gotten into crypto more recently building on top of Ethereum and now on top of some of the newer smart contract platforms like Solana and some other ones as well. I've never had a strong background in economics or never had dove and into the history of central banks and all those things, so the Bitcoin value proposition to me just never resonated. I knew what Bitcoin was in 2012, I just didn't care. Ethereum struck me as important because I understood that I could program money in ways that Stripe could not let me do. It wasn't 10% better than Stripe, it was infinitely more extensible than Stripe. And so that's what pulled me in into the space.

Kyle Samani: (09:59)
Since then, the space has evolved even more, and we can do all kinds of things that I couldn't have imagined then, and now these systems are coming and scalable and we're seeing the next wave of things that you can do that are truly crypto native, things like social tokens and NFTs that weren't even conceivable a few years ago.

John Darsie: (10:17)
Right. Go ahead.

Asiff Hirji: (10:20)
Let me have some perspective on that. I was one of the original Bitcoin believers and I still am, that's what got me into it. And I would tell you that as a software programmer, and I do have a finance background, but whoever he, she or they were, Satoshi solved one of the hardest problems of computer science, it was how to do distributed trust. When I was at Watson Labs way back when, this is one of the issues we used to try and beat our heads against the wall against that we couldn't come up with a solution. They came up with a solution, and it's pretty ingenious. But more than that, they showed a way to build an application such that the data is decentralized. That's the fundamental breakthrough.

Asiff Hirji: (11:01)
And all the other things that came along, whether you're a Ethereum believer or a Solana, it doesn't matter, they would not have been possible without Bitcoin. And I would argue, and maybe this is not a popular point of view, crypto can't succeed if Bitcoin doesn't. And that's because the Bitcoin, if you think of crypto for the average person, if you said crypto, they would think Bitcoin, they don't think something else if they think of crypto at all. And to have the single largest asset in the space, the one that the started the space then fail is not going to be helpful for the industry.

Asiff Hirji: (11:33)
It's not like the internet where you could say, "Oh, AOL introduced the masses to the internet, and then it's okay that AOL failed because we had the rest of it come along." To me, it's not the right analogy. So a couple of things in my mind, one is Bitcoin is super important. It solved one of the biggest problems and showed us how to build applications in a way that we hadn't thought before. I believe it's a store of value, I believe it'll continue to innovate with stuff being built on top and beside it. But I think that it has unleashed all the other innovation that Kyle is talking about.

Asiff Hirji: (12:06)
We wouldn't have had NFTs, we wouldn't have had all these other things without Satoshi, again, whoever he, she or they were, having created the breakthrough in the first place.

John Darsie: (12:16)
And also tell us about Figure. So you were a president and COO at Coinbase, you were responsible for a lot of early to mid-stage growth. You left prior to the direct listing, but you were responsible for a lot of the growth there. And you probably had your pick of the litter in terms of where you could go next in the space, you chose Figure. Tell us about what Figure is and why you chose that.

Asiff Hirji: (12:40)
I go back to, I really think that blockchain or crypto should be fundamentally rewriting the way we do financial services. And it is, if you look at DeFi, but DeFi is aimed at people who are already long crypto. DeFi is bringing traditional financial services products to people who are already long crypto, it is not showing people like you and I and others who are using traditional financial services how to use crypto do those things better. Do you understand the difference?

John Darsie: (13:11)
Yeah.

Asiff Hirji: (13:12)
So if you're a long crypto DeFi's great. If you don't have crypto at all, so far, blockchain has had no impact on you at all, unless it's a speculative asset class. And for blockchain or crypto be successful, it needs to be as ubiquitous as the internet. We shouldn't be able to imagine living life without it if that's really going to be successful. So one of my biggest frustrations at Coinbase was that most of the projects that came to us while they espoused that they were doing something in financial services for the masses, etc, what they really were was token speculation. When you got right down to it, they really weren't doing anything real.

Asiff Hirji: (13:47)
And so I went looking for, who is using blockchain to at scale make financial transactions, everyday financial transactions better? And Figure was the only company I found. And what Figure is doing is, it takes very simple financial transactions that we do every day, like I want to borrow money to buy a house, or I want to borrow money to pay off my credit card, or I want to make a payment to a person, etc, and it's built how to do them on blockchain. So it's taken these really immensely complex, capital-intensive processes and boiled them down to things that happen in minutes with minimal capital requirements.

Asiff Hirji: (14:24)
And we're not doing it because we're trying to be the biggest lender in the world, we're doing it to show the lending industry it can be done. We were able to originate mortgages at double the margin of any other provider in the space, we're able to do home equity lines of credit instantly, whereas it's normally a 45 to 60-day process. And now, we have the largest players in the space looking at our technology wanting to adopt it, and that's what we're after. We're after them trying to adopt it and bring out the solutions to the masses with lower capital and much lower costs. That's the promise of crypto and that's what we're trying to push.

John Darsie: (15:00)
Why did Figure star with home equity lending as a product? Was it a proof of concept in order to expand to a more institutional audience to demonstrate that proof of concept? Why did they start there?

Asiff Hirji: (15:12)
We needed something that had both sides of the market. We needed something that the consumers needed and that the financial markets would then buy. So you could choose a lot of things. And then we wanted something that you could actually control end-to-end to begin with. And so a home equity line of credit is actually a good product that way. If I was traditionally a lender like a SoFi or whatever, I would originate, say $100 million worth of these loans, and then I would go to the market and say, "I want to securitize this." I would represent what that package looked like in terms of FICO scores and loan to value and geographic distribution, I'd get a bunch of bits.

Asiff Hirji: (15:50)
I'd pick a winner. They would hire an auditor, they would audit my loans. 60 to 90 days later, the transaction would finally settle. In the meantime, all my loans are tied up and capital's being consumed, the buyer's got their capital tied up. A hugely expensive process. We don't do any of that because when we originate a loan now, we get the credit score company to stamp the score to the blockchain. When we get a valuation, we get the valuation company to stamp the valuations on blockchain.

Asiff Hirji: (16:15)
There's no more auditing anything, you as an investor can sit there and say, "Hey, I want California. I want CLTV less than 80. I want FICO over 720. Only loans that match that show up in the end because we're replacing trust with truths on the blockchain. And if you want them, you can bid on them in the open market and you buy them. And so we've turned the 45 to 90-day capital-intensive process to a capital in advance of origination process. It's capital light. That's just in one product.

John Darsie: (16:45)
It almost reminds me a little bit of the early days of Amazon, where Jeff Bezos chose books as his proof of concept. "Okay, I'm going to master the logistics around delivering books, the commodity that everyone knows and likes. And then once I do that, I'm going to, I'm going to expand this technology to a whole different suite of products.

Asiff Hirji: (17:03)
Exactly. Exactly right.

John Darsie: (17:06)
Kyle, at Multicoin, you guys do multiple things. You invest into liquid tokens, but you're also investing into project builds on top of it, a lot of the blockchains that you're investing in. What are some of the most compelling use cases you've seen? In addition to talking about something like Figure, what are other really interesting use cases you've seen for blockchain-based applications?

Kyle Samani: (17:29)
Yeah. I'll touch on an example here that's very real-world and tangible. And then if you want, we can go into some of the more abstract, weird less tangible things. So we are the lead investors in a thing called Helium. Helium was one of our largest positions and we're super excited about it. Helium is new business model for deploying and managing wireless networks. So what does that mean? If you think about Verizon or AT&T today or any of those big telecoms, they're extraordinarily capital intensive.

Kyle Samani: (18:01)
They have to go identify where they want to have towers, they have to rent the land, they have to work with tower companies, they have to work with city governments. They have to hire armies and armies of people, get them trucks, get them much of hard hats and equipment. They drive around, they install all this equipment, they run a bunch of back haul. It is extraordinarily capital intensive, and they have to do it at large scale, like doing one city alone is not enough because people expect their phones to work wherever they go, so you have to do large, large geographical coverage.

Kyle Samani: (18:29)
The only way to do that is to then raise a tremendous amount of debt financing and then lock in your customers into two-year contracts so you have some guaranteed revenue that the underwriters will lend against, basically. And it's obviously a very centrally coordinated and top-down. Helium is basically the exact opposite of that. The vision of the Helium is any Joe Shmoe at home, either a consumer in their home or a small business owner can buy a hotspot, which is about yay big, plug it in the wall, put next to the window, plug in electricity, plug in ethernet and then create radio waves, and any device walking around nearby can access those radio waves and pay per byte of data.

Kyle Samani: (19:07)
And if you think about this model, you take the two largest sources of costs, which are labor and land, and you send both of those costs to zero. You just outright remove those costs from the system. And so this is really disruptive to the cost structure model of telecom. We were fortunate to lead the last round of Helium in 2019, and they started rolling out the Helium network later in 2019. Today, there's over 60,000 hotspots live around the United States and Western Europe and China, another 500,000 hotspots have been back ordered, but not yet shipped.

Kyle Samani: (19:42)
And you just see this network really rolling out. And so this is the kind of thing that we're really excited about, is using these decentralized technologies as a way to incentivize people all over the world, we don't know each other, don't trust each other, to all do some collective action and produce some net positive results as a result of that coordination. And the best part of this whole system is, the whole thing is not centrally owned and managed. Helium Inc mean could go out of business today and the blockchain would keep running, all the systems would keep running. It's a truly decentralized system.

Kyle Samani: (20:15)
That is the new kind of crypto-enabled business model that we think is super exciting. That just you can't map this to the traditional Web 2 type business models at all.

John Darsie: (20:27)
It's fascinating. So now I want to hear your weird abstract application.

Kyle Samani: (20:32)
Yeah. DeFi is the first segment of that. As Asiff noted today, this DeFi ecosystem has a fair bit of press coverage. There's probably $50 billion or so of capital sloshing around in it right now. It is circular, the DeFi ecosystem is mostly people levering up to speculate on more DeFi things. That is okay, that is not bad in and of itself. It's the Wild West, and the first thing people did was take leverage because that's what people do in financial markets. And what level up on is they leveled up on other DeFi crypto things. But now they're proving that this stuff works and you're going to start to see it expand into more regulated institutional offerings over the next few years.

Kyle Samani: (21:15)
So DeFi is section number one. I won't harp on it too much more. I think some of the newer cutting edge areas that we think are super interesting are things like social tokens and NFTs, and I think these things go together in some interesting ways. Social tokens are my favorite thought area at the moment. What is the social token? You may ask. There's no strict definition, but I'd say loosely, the idea of a social token is having a token that is in the name of a person or a group.

Kyle Samani: (21:46)
So it could be Kylecoin or Asiffcoin.

John Darsie: (21:49)
SALTcoin.

Kyle Samani: (21:50)
Huh?

Asiff Hirji: (21:50)
SALTcoin.

Kyle Samani: (21:50)
It could be SALTcoin.

John Darsie: (21:54)
We're working on that.

Kyle Samani: (21:55)
You can get it be whatever. You can have David's get a coin, you can have Red Hot Chili Peppers' coin. I don't really care. Pick your entity or organization that today doesn't really have an asset that represents value and their utility around them, and give one of them to those people. Obviously, one thing you're going to say is, what do you do with these coins? And the answer today is, I don't really know. But I do know that people are creative and they're going to do all kinds of weird wacky stuff with them. And I do think it's going to become a normal part of society where... It might not be everyday people, I don't know if my mom is going to have her own coin, she probably doesn't care.

Kyle Samani: (22:33)
But I think for anyone who has a public presence on the internet, it's just like everyone has an Instagram or a Facebook or a Twitter, it's going to become part of the public discourse on internet society. And creators and celebrities are going to do interesting things with their coins. So the obvious things are like, "Hey, if you own X number of coins, you can get lunch with me. You get access to movie premieres and stuff like that." Those kinds of things are relatively obvious and will happen over the next six to 12 months. I think there's going to be a bunch of creators though that starts to do really interesting things.

Kyle Samani: (23:06)
Like, for example, these TikTok hype houses, I wouldn't be surprised if you know those creators, you get three of them and say, "Look, if you own X number of each of our coins, you can come be in our next TikTok video, and you can use that to launch your own TikTok career and then develop your own brand identity from there. And the way that these things are going to get remixed, I think this is going to be super interesting and fascinating. The design space for social tokens is incredibly broad and interesting and is going to unlock the intersection of human creativity and finance in a way that it has never intersected before.

John Darsie: (23:38)
So Asiff, going back to Figure, you guys demonstrated the use case for blockchain technology with this home equity products. On March 11th, you had your first securitization, it was an ABS securitization. Maybe prior to that, banks were saying, "Oh, this blockchain thing sounds kind of interesting, but do we really need it? We have traditional databases. We have traditional ways that we gather information about the underlying loans and assets and the securitizations." Did that trigger some sort of aha moment for banks that that's led to a different level of interest?

John Darsie: (24:13)
And let's say for example, we had Figure during the global financial crisis or prior to the global financial crisis, how would Figure had changed the way we analyzed different securitized products and would it help prevent potentially the crisis?

Asiff Hirji: (24:29)
Two really good question. Securitization was a milestone, and third-parties went and looked at it and said, "Hey, compared to a regular securitization, not including the ratings, which is even more expensive, this saved over 120 basis points compared to a regular securitization." Now, you think about how big the securitization market is, 120 basis points on that is a very, very big number for the industry. So we got a lot of interest in that. And it's just some of the very basic things that are different. So if you're using blockchain, for a normal company originating loans, running a warehouse, you warehouse loans before you get ready to securitize them.

Asiff Hirji: (25:07)
If I've got a provider of the warehouse, that provider of the warehouse has three to five people managing the exposures in the warehouse to make sure I'm not overrunning the geographic distribution I'm supposed to be in or the FICO scores or whatever, and I've got two or three people doing that. We have none of that with blockchain. It's a smart contract. The smart contract basically says, "Here are the rules that govern the warehouse." That's it. If the rule set is right, you can't overrun the warehouse with stuff that you're not supposed to. And so those three to five people go away on both sides. It's just one very simple example.

Asiff Hirji: (25:37)
And so we've got to the point where when we originally started, we had hedge funds as the primary buyers of the loans we originating. Now, it's major banks, credit unions and pension funds who are the major buyers of all these things. And secondly, it was hedge funds that were providing the financing. Today, the financing is provided by the Wall Street banks, all the big ones, including JP Morgan. If you had said two years ago, Jamie Dimon's bank who said Bitcoin was a sham was providing a warehouse on blockchain, people would've laughed you out the building. But that's what they're doing.

Asiff Hirji: (26:12)
So what's happened in terms of the adoption. And to your second question, because the servicing data is all, again, on blockchain, our servicing data is real time and it's real time available to anybody. As long as you have the loan ID, you can look up the performance of the loan real time. When we had the COVID correction just over a year ago, we actually had hedge funds who were buyers of our loans using our real-time data to look at the performance. They were using it to ARB MBSs is on the market because they could see how well our loans performing relative to others.

Asiff Hirji: (26:47)
And by the way, our loans were outperforming first lien Fannie. That's how well they were performing because we had the real-time data and we're able to manage them in real time. And so again, you go to a blockchain-based system, it is less capital consumptive, it is much more real time, it is hired there for credit quality and higher credit performance. There's no reason to not do it this way. And that's all we're trying to do. We don't go in saying to people, "We have a blockchain-based system, are you interested?" We go in and say, "We have a system for loan origination, sales and service that saves you over 150 basis points, is real time and requires less capital. Are you interested?" It just happens to be on blockchain.

John Darsie: (27:29)
It's an example of the COVID correction that really resonates with us at SkyBridge. We had heavy exposure to the structured credit space, that entire market broke down on a technical place-

Asiff Hirji: (27:39)
Correct, it froze.

John Darsie: (27:40)
All these intermediaries, and one decides to do something out of the ordinary and it freezes the entire market. We are very transparent with our investors, we're marking things to market. The entire market froze, so we're telling people, "Our assets are marked down 25%." Fundamentally, they're not impaired. We don't think really at all, or definitely not to that extent. But if you remove all those intermediaries and you create a more efficient, transparent system, you make a lot of people's lives easier, including ours when communicating to clients around March, April of 2020.

John Darsie: (28:14)
But Kyle, you talked about how you really got jazzed about crypto through a Ethereum. You said, "Wow, this is taking what Stripe has done with this API and putting some leverage onto that." But there's other blockchains that compete with Ethereum. Ethereum obviously has as created tremendous network effects has become the go-to platform for NFTs and other tokens, but there's other blockchains that are out there doing similar things that in a lot of ways might be more efficient or better constructed. What are some other competing blockchains with Ethereum that you think stand out?

Kyle Samani: (28:49)
Sure. We're going to get loud public investors in a blockchain called Solana where we've been early investors. They started R&D back in early to mid 2018. Solana network has been live now for about 16 months or so. The reason why we've been so excited about Solana is they have from inception, been focused on two things, one enabling on-chain limit order books, and two, really focusing on scaling these systems. One of the interesting thing about Ethereum from is the market cap of Ethereum today is 250 billion plus or minus, and the number of daily transactions on Ethereum is about one and a half million.

Kyle Samani: (29:31)
So if you just think about that math, of any system you know whether it's Facebook or Twilio or Uber or whatever, any of these systems, the market cap per daily user on Ethereum is truly... It's at a totally different level. It's very, very high market cap per daily user. Now, these things aren't apples to apples comparisons because they're obviously different and what they do is different, so you can't rely too heavily on a direct comparison, but they really... The number of users there is actually a lot smaller than you would think, given the hype and given the market cap.

Kyle Samani: (30:06)
Our theory has been that you have to scale these things to get you to 500 million daily users plus, and the Solana team has provided an incredible alternative approach to scaling these things where you can write code now and know what's going to work in six months and in 18 months and in 24 months, and you know how it's going to scale. And so we've made a big bet there. And in the 15, 16 months since this thing has been live, we've seen a number of pretty interesting developers take advantage of this, and the most notable of which is called Serum.

Kyle Samani: (30:41)
Serum is a new order book, it's a decentralized exchange. It's conceptually similar to Coinbase or FTX or these other things. But it runs natively on a blockchain. If you think about the financial markets, look at equities, look at FX markets, look at commodities, look at any of these things, the way that all of these liquid assets trade is they trade on order books. You've got market-makers quoting spreads and quoting liquidity, and obviously, you're adjusting the prices as new information comes out and whatever. And that's how finance works. And there's a reason that it works that way because it's the right way to price assets.

Kyle Samani: (31:17)
The challenge in Ethereum has been because of the throughput limitations, you just can't run an order book on Ethereum, and everyone has agreed that that doesn't really work. And Solana has been architected, that was the goal from inception was to run an order book on-chain. And they've now proven that's possible. It's not as performant as the NASDAQ or New York Stock Exchange, and I don't want to claim that it is, but it's close enough that you can get global permissionless order books for any arbitrary asset. And that works now, and you can see it live now, and that's already trading 50 to a million dollars per day on Serum right now, and that's been growing at a nice, steady clip.

Kyle Samani: (31:53)
We really think that the key primitive heading an order book available is going to be the most important financial construction as we think about scaling these systems to billions of people.

John Darsie: (32:04)
So if I want to go to payments, as we've talked about, Figure started with HELOC loans, and use that as a proof of concept and has gone out and done securitizations now, and is getting heavy institutional interest, but also has ambitions to solve this blockchain for payments issue, which is one of the holy grails for the industry about how to really potentially move off of those Visa, MasterCard rails to deliver point of sale credit. Could you explain to people who are less familiar what that means, what the implications of that are, and whether it is realistic to move off of those traditional credit card rails and why a point of sale credit is a better solution.

Asiff Hirji: (32:45)
Yeah. Look, if you and I walk into a merchant and we take out a credit card and swipe it, there's actually at least seven or eight intermediaries who take part in that transaction between my paying for something and the merchant receiving the money that I'm trying to pay them and me receiving the goods. And again, each of those intermediaries takes a cut, and the poor merchant depending on the size is paying somewhere between 100 to 300 basis points on that transaction. It's super expensive. And most of the merchants are paying at the upper end of that in terms of a fee. And a lot of that goes to, again, back to the complexity that we've built into the Visa-MasterCard system.

Asiff Hirji: (33:23)
And not only does is it really expensive, but the way Visa-MasterCard works because it's a credit product, I the merchant, I'm not actually guaranteed that I'm getting the value for the transaction because the consumer can claim that there's fraud or something else, and then I get a charge back. And so it's a hideously expensive process for the merchant. Studies show that a merchant on a $100 is maybe clearing something between 87 and 95, depending on what they're doing and how often they get charged back, etc. So go back to, what does blockchain do really well? Blockchain does real-time bilateral settlement between two parties, no intermediaries.

Asiff Hirji: (34:03)
So if I went into the merchant and I could pay with stable coin into their wallet, from my wallet to their wallet, it settles instantly, there is no risk anymore that there's going to be a charge back. There is no fee other than the blockchain processing fee itself, which is orders of magnitude lower than the 300 basis points that Visa, MasterCard, etc, are charging that merchant. You take just a tremendous amount of cost and complexity out of that system. So we have built a service we call Figure Pay, which is a challenger bank, so think Chime or Dave or whichever your favorite is, meets buy now pay later, say something like a firm meets merchant acquisition, so think Square.

Asiff Hirji: (34:43)
So it's got a card, you can use it at any merchant, but if it's a Figure Pay merchant, it's not the 300 basis points, it's more or less free, and it uses QR codes, just like they do all over Latin America and China, it's running entirely on blockchain. And if you were a fintech, not only can you leverage this product to offer payment services to your customers, but you can also offer banking services, because the core banking functionality is provided by the blockchain, there is no core. So if you're a bank, one of the biggest costs you have is your core banking system, which is probably antiquated written in COBOL 15, 30 years ago. And again, all of that goes away using blockchain.

Asiff Hirji: (35:24)
And so we have four or five of these businesses lending being the most mature, pay being somewhere in the middle, and we have some that we're incubating. Pay is now getting traction like lending was, say two years ago. Lots banks looking at it, lots of fintechs looking at it, lots of retailers are looking at it as a superior way of providing that merchant acceptance credit card type functionality, also banking functionalities to customers, again at a much lower cost all over Europe, all over your smartphone, all on blockchain rails.

John Darsie: (35:54)
Yeah. And we're investors in Chime and Klarna, so we understand that story intimately well. I want to talk about regulation. Elizabeth Warren, everybody on Wall Street's favorite Senator, she's both anti the establishment too big to fail financial system, banking system, but she's also been a loud critic of crypto, of blockchain. She recently issued a letter to SEC chair, Gary Gensler saying, "By July 28th," I don't know how she picked that date, "I need to have answers on how we're going to regulate crypto." Are you concerned, I'll start with you, Asiff. Are you concerned about irregulation being this existential threat to the development of this crypto ecosystem and blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies? Or how do you see regulation in the United States shaking out?

Asiff Hirji: (36:45)
I think regulation is a big risk. I think if you look at what China's doing with fintechs that are listing in the US, let alone anything else, the Bitcoin hash rate, if the regulators really are serious about lowering costs and increasing financial inclusion, and that's what they claim they are, if they're serious about that, they have to be pro crypto. I believe the reason that they're not pro crypto is because they don't understand it. And they view it simply as an asset class, which is the wrong way to think about it. And not only an asset class, but a highly speculative asset class, which will only end in their minds badly for most investors.

Asiff Hirji: (37:23)
And so that's why when I was at Coinbase, we started a bunch of things that tried to educate regulators and educate our legislatures about what crypto is and what it can do. And those things are making progress slowly, but they're making progress. And so I believe there is a mismatch between the level of understanding within regulators and their perception of what crypto is versus where crypto is actually trying to go. Are there things in crypto, which are which are scammy? Yes. Will some people lose their money? Yes. But that doesn't mean that all of crypto is scammy or that there is no real value underneath it.

Asiff Hirji: (38:03)
For a lot of what we do every day, there is a better crypto solution that is lower costs and will drive more inclusion for people who are currently excluded from the system.

John Darsie: (38:14)
Kyle, when you're evaluating investments, whether it be in liquid tokens or companies that are developing on different blockchains, how do you evaluate regulatory risk? And what's your outlook for regulation in the US?

Kyle Samani: (38:29)
Building off Asiff comments here, it's definitely a real risk, and there's no one in the world you can forecast how the political winds are going to change both in the executive branch, as well as in Congress and how that's going to filter into the SEC, the CFTC and other regulatory bodies. Those things are actually impossible to predict on any medium to long horizon term. I would say though, I'm just generally an optimist. If you look back at the history of the internet, there's been a lot of moments where people thought it wasn't going to take off, where the CIA and NSA tried to ban encryption.

Kyle Samani: (39:07)
There was that whole debate, there's been others over the years. If you look back at the early history of Bitcoin, say circuit 2010 to 2014 or so, there were a lot of real concerns that governments were going to just shut this thing down as a threat to monetary systems and stuff. And actually now, it's being in a meaningful way, embraced by a number of governments US and others. And so I'd say, I'm just generally a techno optimist on most of these things. And I think specifically, if you look at just wealth creation and obvious lifestyle creation of software and smart phones and computers over the last 25 years, literally everyone in the world understands just how powerful that forces has been.

Kyle Samani: (39:49)
I think general interest is in letting innovators innovate and do things. Obviously some folks like Senator Warren like to yell things on national television, but I'm generally quite optimistic that that's not going to... It may cause some bumps here and there, but I don't think it's going to present an existential crisis of any form.

John Darsie: (40:14)
Do you think it's a Bitcoin issue, but it's also a broader issue for crypto that China is now basically completely exited the entire cryptocurrency experiment? They said, "You know what, well, at least decentralized cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies." With the DD listing issue that you referenced earlier, Asiff, they're becoming very paranoid about data. And so they want to control every bit of data that passes through that country in and out. And so they're obviously going to prioritize the digital yuan. Do you think China's adversarial stance towards crypto is going to hamper development of the space? Asiff, we'll start with you.

Asiff Hirji: (40:53)
I think that just like every technology, there are two ways or three ways you could use it, some of which are not great. And China is showing us that there is a dark side to crypto, which is you can use it to further the totalitarian state. So should there be central bank, digital currencies? Maybe. Maybe. But China's basically said, "Our currency will be digital because that lets us further enhance the surveillance state because now you cannot get the fiat unless you have a digital wallet and I issued it to you, so I the Chinese government know exactly who you are, and I can track everywhere you spend it. And if I don't like what you say or what you do, I can block it."

Asiff Hirji: (41:35)
Now, that is the evil twin, if you want to think of it, of crypto in almost every sense because crypto is trying to be decentralized, it's trying to empower the end consumer. It's trying to give data back to people so that they can control the privacy settings of it, etc. But that same technology has been used in a very different way in China. My guess is there's been more and more technological separation between the Western and China, and I personally believe that will continue. I don't think it's a threat to Bitcoin or Ethereum, or any of the other projects that we've mentioned here on this show, but I do think that it's a very different application of the same technology with a very, very different outcome, which is not great for humanity at that point.

John Darsie: (42:26)
Kyle, how do you look at the China issue?

Kyle Samani: (42:30)
It doesn't impact us in a meaningful way on a day-to-day basis. They've shut down mining is the big thing that's happened. Motivations are a few fold, but I think that the most cynical interpretations are overstated, at least of that particular action. It does feel like China's generally moving towards a surveillance state, Orwellian future, that seems to be happening. Although, I don't take it for granted that is actually the outcome that we're going to get, although it's a reasonable probability outcome. When we think about crypto and the opportunity in China, there's two angles we think about.

Kyle Samani: (43:12)
One is developers and then there's users. Most developers who are building novel crypto things who are based in China or leaving China just for personal safety reasons, which is pretty smart thing to do. A lot of them go to Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, pick your locale nearby, and that's pretty common. And so that has really created problem for us as a firm. The other question then of course is users for these things. If you look at who is using DeFi today, it's actually overwhelmingly not Americans, it's overwhelmingly people in Asia, Southeast Asia is a massive market and has almost no press coverage in the United States. China is a massive market.

Kyle Samani: (43:51)
And the reason is because obviously people in these countries are trying to opt out of their fiat systems and of their payment rails that they are more or less subject to from birth onwards. And so those people are very interested in experimenting with these technologies, trying them, figuring out what they can and can't do so that they can opt out of the local regimes. And given what we've seen there in the last few years, I'm quite optimistic that we'll continue to be true. It may become more legally risky for folks in China, specifically unclear how exactly how that's going to play out.

Kyle Samani: (44:27)
But there's just across Southeast Asia and China, you've, call it, two billion or so, two and a half billion people, who for the most part are trying to opt out of their local financial systems. And that market is just astronomically large. And so we continue to spend a large percentage of our time and energy both understanding what developers are doing there as well as understanding the way that consumers are using these technologies in China and elsewhere.

John Darsie: (44:54)
Well, Asiff and Kyle, it has been a pleasure to have you on. We'll leave it there, save it for your next appearance, everything else we can talk about here today for your next appearance on SALT Talks. We hope that you'll be able to join us in person in September, we're bringing back our in-person Salt Conferences in New York. There's also the Block Works Digital Asset Summit going on at the same time. So we're excited to have just a really large ecosystem of players in the space, and from the institutional world, we're somebody that's a newer entrant into the space from a SkyBridge perspective, and really excited about all the potential that it holds.

John Darsie: (45:25)
And like I mentioned earlier, Bitcoin has been our gateway dragon and we're excited to be involved alongside the things you guys are doing in the space. But thanks so much for joining us here on SALT Talks.

Kyle Samani: (45:34)
Thanks for inviting us.

Asiff Hirji: (45:35)
Thanks for inviting us, John.

John Darsie: (45:37)
And thank you everybody for tuning in today's SALT Talk with Asiff Hirji from Figure, and Kyle Samani from Multicoin Capital. A reminder, if you missed any part of this SALT Talk or any of our previous SALT Talks, you can access them on our website On Demand at salt.org/talks, or on our YouTube channel, which is called SALT too. We're also on social media, Twitter is where we're most active. We're @saltconference. We're also on Linked, Instagram and Facebook as well. And please spread the word about these SALT Talks, we love educating people, especially on the topic of crypto and digital assets.

John Darsie: (46:09)
So again, share this episode with your skeptical uncle when it comes to crypto. On behalf of the entire SALT team, this is John Darsie, sounding off from SALT Talks for today. We hope to see you back here again soon.

Zac Prince: What is Crypto Lending? | SALT Talks #233

“Despite the day-to-day price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies, this sector is in a long-term secular growth trend. There are new people and businesses all the time and BlockFi is launching new products all the time.”

Zac Prince is the Chief Executive Officer of BlockFi. Founded in 2017, BlockFi provides trade execution services for institutions and opportunities for retail investors to earn a yield on their bitcoin holdings. In January 2018, BlockFi launched its first product: USD loans backed by cryptocurrency for cryptocurrency holders allowing them to offer their bitcoin, ether or litecoin assets as collateral for a loan. In 2019, BlockFi launched its second major product to retail customers, a crypto-funded interest account. With this account, customers deposit bitcoin, ether or litecoin with the company for the assets to accumulate cumulative interest every month. BlockFi has previously advertised 6.2% annual interest, compounded monthly. The firm has $10 billion in outstanding loans, $15 billion in total assets and has been operating profitably for several months.

Zac discusses his crypto journey and founding of BlockFi, a financial services platform offering the ability secure a loan using one’s Bitcoin value. With the growth profile of Bitcoin, he explains the importance of avoiding the tax consequences of selling the cryptocurrency. With new entrants and businesses joining the crypto space every day, big banks will only continue to grow their involvement as regulations become clearer. Prince talks about BlockFi’s latest retail offering, a Visa credit card that earns users Bitcoin for every dollar spent, instead of traditional rewards like airline miles or cash back.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Zac Prince.jpeg

Zac Prince

Chief Executive Officer

BlockFi

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 - Intro and background

4:18 - Crypto eureka moment

8:20 - BlockFi elevator pitch

13:38 - Borrowing against Bitcoin

15:56 - BlockFi success despite Bitcoin pullback

18:18 - Future of Bitcoin and BlockFi

22:48 - Big banks’ Bitcoin adoption

26:40 - Bitcoin regulations

31:01 - BlockFi credit cards

TRANSCRIPT

Jason Zins: (00:07)
Welcome back everyone to SALT Talks. My name is Jason Zins. I'm a partner at SkyBridge Capital. As most of you know, SALT is a global thought leadership and networking forum, encompassing finance, technology and politics. SALT talks is a series of digital interviews with the world's foremost investors, creators and thinkers. Just as we do at our global SALT events, we aim to both empower big, important ideas and provide our audience a window into the minds of subject matter experts. And so today we have a subject matter expert and business builder extraordinaire, Zac Prince, the CEO and founder of BlockFi.

Jason Zins: (00:51)
Quickly on Zac's background and biography. Zac is the founder and CEO of BlockFi, a crypto financial services company founded in 2017 with Flori Marquez. With experience in multiple leadership roles at successful tech companies, his career started in adtech where he was a part of two successful acquisitions Admeld, which was acquired by Google and Sociomantic acquired by DunnHumby. Prior to starting BlockFi, he led business development teams at Orchard Platform, a broker dealer and RIA in the online lending sector and Zibby, an online consumer lender. Zac graduated cum laude from Texas State University, with a BA in international business and a minor in Spanish. Zac, thanks so much for joining us today.

Jason Zins: (01:37)
A familiar face with us as well, of course, our host for this SALT Talk, Anthony Scaramucci.

Anthony Scaramucci: (01:44)
A familiar face. You're worse than John Darcie, the other host. See Zac, you millennials, you give us a hard time. I like having baby boomers on this show so we can team up against you people. Zac, I want to get right into it with you. Jason's going to feather in some questions towards the end, but I want to talk about your upbringing, if you don't mind. What'd your mom, dad do? How did you end up where you are at BlockFi? Tell us that odyssey because I know when you were in junior high school somewhere, you didn't think you were going to be the founder and CEO of BlockFi, so tell us what happened.

Zac Prince: (02:21)
Yeah, so I grew up in South Texas. I was always a very competitive athlete and ultimately spent the most time as a tennis player and I was a nationally ranked. I used to travel around the country on weekends competing in junior tournaments across the US. I was always really financially minded growing up. I actually asked my parents for stocks for Christmas when I was 10, but my parents were not particularly financially minded. We were middle class and I was very comfortable, but they didn't give me stocks. And so anyways, so fast forward to college, I put myself through school as a semiprofessional online poker player. Was fortunate to come out of school with no debt. And I always anticipated working in the financial services industry, but I finished school in May of 2009 so it wasn't the best time to be looking for entry level roles in financial services. I ended up working at a advertising technology company and I was employee number 15 and it was just a tremendous experience.

Zac Prince: (03:25)
Three years after I joined, we were 250 people acquired by Google. At the time it was the sixth largest acquisition in Google's history. And after transitioning to Google, I realized that I really enjoyed building things and working on small teams. It took me about six months to completely lose my mind at Google with just the size of the org and everything that was going on. I left Google, went to another startup, launched the North American version of a German based adtech company. That was successful and acquired. And then after that, most relevantly for BlockFi, moved into the online lending sector and the alternative credit sector. And while I was working in that sector, I started personally investing in cryptocurrency in 2015.

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:08)
Let me stop you right there though, because I want the eureka moment. You started investing in cryptocurrency in 2015. Why? And where was your Eureka moment?

Zac Prince: (04:19)
I was actually writing a blog on the side. I was working at this company called Orchard and we were the largest provider of data and technology tools to institutions that were either buying loans or directly financing online lending platforms. And so I was seeing all of this really interesting stuff, online consumer loans, online real estate loans and also more broadly in FinTech, robo-advisors were getting created and I kind of became the FinTech guy in my friend group. And I decided to start just writing some of this stuff down. Should you invest in fractional shares of commercial real estate online? Should you consider using a robo-advisor? Should you be participating in credit markets on some of these online lending platforms? And writing that blog led me to discover Bitcoin. And what really struck me about it initially was a lot of the things that happen in FinTech are kind of a new front end on top of the same core infrastructure that has powered the financial system for a long time.

Zac Prince: (05:15)
And I thought it was really interesting how Bitcoin was not only a new technology that enabled a new payment rail, but also a completely new investible asset that if things worked out for it, could potentially be very, very successful in terms of performance financially, but also have a positive impact on the world. And so I initially just took a flyer on it and was recommending on this tiny blog that I had, that probably 10 people read, that people should create a Coinbase account and buy some Bitcoin. I ultimately completely whiffed it in 2015. I originally bought Bitcoin around 200. I sold the majority of my Bitcoin at 600 and thought I was just such a genius Bitcoin trader and ended up buying more later. But that's what led me to it originally. And then I learned about Ethereum in 2016, made an analogy in my head that maybe Bitcoin is a little bit like a Blackberry. Ethereum's a little bit like an iPhone so I bought a ton of Ethereum.

Zac Prince: (06:12)
Ethereum for six months after I owned it was a horrible investment, down 50, 60% because there was this Dow hack and it was all very scary at that time. You had to send your money off with Coinbase, didn't know what was going on but then in late 2016, the prices started doing well. I had started going to meetups in New York City because at a certain point, my wife said, "You're talking about cryptocurrency with me and I love you, but I don't want to talk about cryptocurrency." She's like, "You can have Tuesday nights, go find some other nerds or whatever to talk about cryptocurrency with." And those meetups initially it was 10 people at a sleepy bar in Union Square just nerding out over cryptocurrency. But by the first quarter and second quarter of 2017, it had started to gather some real momentum and there were big law firms hosting 500 person meetups in Midtown Manhattan and there's a line of 200 people outside because there wasn't enough room to get in.

Zac Prince: (07:18)
It was clear that this was becoming very, very real. And at one of those meetups, I said to somebody, "I've been working in online lending. I think there's going to be a need in this asset class for people to finance Bitcoin and other assets and I think I'm in a great position to do it because I've been working in the alternative debt and credit markets for the last five years. Do you think it's a good idea?" And this person at the meetup was like, "That's the best idea I've ever heard. You need to start this business yesterday." Basically I went home that night and told my wife the idea and put in my resignation at the FinTech company I was working at the next day.

Anthony Scaramucci: (07:58)
Yeah. I absolutely love this story. I want to take you to the elevator here at SkyBridge. Now we're on the fourth floor, but let's pretend we're on the 60th floor for this conversation. I want the elevator pitch. We're coming down the elevator. I open up the elevator, there's Zac Prince. Tell me about BlockFi and now we're moving down the elevator.

Zac Prince: (08:20)
Sure. We're a financial services platform for crypto investors and crypto market participants. We have a retail facing side of our platform where you can earn interest on your cryptocurrencies. You can buy and sell cryptocurrencies and you can get a loan secured by the value of your portfolio. We're also launching our fourth product on the retail side imminently, it's a Bitcoin rewards credit card. You can earn Bitcoin with every dollar that you spend on the card instead of airline miles or regular cash back. And then we have an institutional side of our platform where we're effectively a prime broker for the asset class. And we work with market making firms, proprietary trading firms, hedge funds and other types of institutions to finance their activities in the cryptocurrency markets and also to provide best execution and facilitate their participation in the trading markets without them having to go up and set up connections on all the various venues themselves.

Anthony Scaramucci: (09:16)
And brilliant stuff and I can't wait to get that credit card in my hands. And just want you to know, I have a very high credit score. Just want to point that out to everybody on SALT Talks. But I want to ask you this, I'm going to move millions of dollars of Bitcoin to you, is my Bitcoin safe and secure on BlockFi? And if it is, tell us why.

Zac Prince: (09:36)
It's absolutely safe and secure. A couple of things that I would highlight. First off, we work with the best custodians in the industry, Fidelity, Gemini and BitGo are the core of our custody stack. Additionally, we have a risk management layer that not only is incredibly sophisticated, but has also been battle tested. We made our first loan in January of 2018 and we've been active in this market at increasing scale throughout lots of periods of volatility. We've never lost a penny across any of the lending that we do. Additionally, with the exact business model that BlockFi has, we're the only company that's domiciled and fully regulated in the US and has the backing of phenomenal institutional investors who go very deep in terms of understanding how everything works at BlockFi before deciding to invest in our platform. And we've raised quite a bit of money and we have a very, very strong balance sheet.

Anthony Scaramucci: (10:34)
Okay. Now you've got me convinced, I've moved my millions of dollars over to you, my Bitcoin, I should say, in nominal dollars. And how much could I earn on my Bitcoin when I'm at BlockFi?

Zac Prince: (10:48)
Yeah, just to be clear, we're increasingly seeing folks not only use our platform to earn interest on cryptocurrencies, but also to earn interest on stable coins. Which I think of is just digital dollars. They're one to one interchangeable with dollars in a bank account on our platform and the rates for all of them are very attractive. On stable coins today, folks are earning 7%, on Bitcoin they're earning 4% and on Ethereum they're earning four and a half percent.

Anthony Scaramucci: (11:17)
Okay. Those rates sound high to traditional finance. When we see lower rates and my checking account is zero at the such and such bank and maybe I'm at 90 basis points on my CD, Zac, my three year CD is earning me 90 basis points in fiat currency that's being devalued by the minute due to the printing press. How am I getting 7% from you?

Zac Prince: (11:42)
Listen, the fundamental reason that these high yields exist on platforms like ours is that we're able to charge high rates when we're lending out the capital that our clients are holding on our platform. And the reason we're able to do that is that the cryptocurrency sector, it's not connected to the traditional financial system particularly well right now. And the implication of that is that cryptocurrency companies, cryptocurrency trading firms, they're not accessing the traditional debt and credit markets from banks and so therefore they have a higher cost of capital, which they're accessing through firms like BlockFi. One analogy that I tell folks that resonates with some people is there's publicly traded REITs. One that's called Innovative Industrial Properties as an example. And they basically have warehouses where they allow cannabis growers in states that have legalized cannabis growing.

Zac Prince: (12:39)
They do triple net leases for them and they charge 15%. A triple net lease if you were growing carrots or if you were a normal franchise store is going to be liable or plus two and a half percent, but it's way more expensive. The cryptocurrency industry faces that same fundamental problem of being early, not having access to traditional debt and credit markets. As a result, the cost of capital is high. We enable folks to participate in that. And the good news here is that the majority of the lending that we're doing is over collateralized with liquid assets. On the spectrum of lending risk, we're on the low, low, low end of the spectrum with the types of loans that we're making and that's why we've had the perfect performance that we've had on our platform today.

Anthony Scaramucci: (13:24)
That brings my next question. I've now got my millions of dollars of Bitcoin over there, and I want to borrow against it. Let's say a million dollars, how much would you lend me on my Bitcoin account at BlockFi?

Zac Prince: (13:39)
You can borrow up to 50% of the value of the assets that you hold at BlockFi. If you have a million dollars worth of Bitcoin, you're going to be able to borrow half a million dollars secured by that million dollars worth of Bitcoin.

Anthony Scaramucci: (13:56)
And what am I paying in a percentage of interest right now?

Zac Prince: (14:00)
We have three pricing options. You can borrow at a 50% LTV, 35% LTV or a 20% LTV. At a 50% LTV, the interest rate is 9.75%. And depending on the loan size there's also an origination fee, which can range from 50 bips up to 2%.

Anthony Scaramucci: (14:18)
Okay. It's a fairly high yield, but if you're a big Bitcoin believer and you want to have a leverage play on Bitcoin, you're one of the great places to go for this. What am I missing?

Zac Prince: (14:32)
That's right. It's safe and secure. And importantly, in terms of tax optimization, if you're someone that's bullish on the future price of Bitcoin and you have a large embedded capital gain in that position, as a lot of folks in this space do, because Bitcoin has been an incredible asset in terms of investment performance, just not having to sell and realize that tax consequence is incredibly valuable. If you're someone like me that lives in New York, that's 35% that you're saving by not selling and you still have the position. Furthermore, to the extent that you use the proceeds of the loan to make other investments, which the majority of our clients do, this is kind of a high net worth type of borrowing. You can typically deduct the interest that you're charged on the loan using the investment interest expense deduction for your taxes. It's a very common wealth management tool. We're just making it available for cryptocurrency investors.

Anthony Scaramucci: (15:36)
Zac, you've built this colossal company. The Bitcoin was down in the month of May. It was arguably the biggest month loss, month to date loss, if you will and yet your company did phenomenally well in the month of May. Why is that?

Zac Prince: (15:57)
I think there's a few reasons. Different products on our platform behave differently to market conditions. To give you an example, trading on our platform typically correlates really tightly with volatility. If there's volatility, there's a lot of trading volume. US dollar borrowing is not as active when market sentiment is bearish and performance is bearish like it was recently. But Bitcoin borrowing, which is something that we're also very active in, increases when market sentiment is bearish. Different products react differently to market conditions. Also, I think that our products are still relatively early in terms of everyone, even just in the cryptocurrency market, understanding that they're available and accessing them. I'll give you one stat just to recognize that, Coinbase has 55 million retail accounts, Blockfi has about 450,000 retail accounts today. We're still pretty early in terms of just letting people know that there's a platform where you can do these things.

Zac Prince: (17:08)
And then lastly, despite the day to day price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies, this sector is in a longterm secular growth trend. There are new people coming in all of the time. There are new business opportunities all of the time and we're launching new products all the time. We shipped our first credit cards last month to two employees and a couple of friends and family and influencers and we'll be rolling them out publicly this month.

Anthony Scaramucci: (17:38)
I didn't get my credit card application yet, Zac. Am I still considered one of the friends and family I'm hoping? Or no?

Zac Prince: (17:46)
You absolutely are. You'll be posting a picture with the credit card potentially before this podcast or this show airs.

Anthony Scaramucci: (17:54)
All right, I cannot wait for that actually because I want to spend and earn Bitcoin when I'm spending. Zac, you're in 20, we're going to fast forward now. We're in 2026, it's five years from today. Where is BlockFi? What's the price of Bitcoin? By the way, we're going to ask you to play a guessing game with us. And where is BlockFi?

Zac Prince: (18:19)
2026 I would say Bitcoin's between two and 300,000, BlockFi is doing all of the same things that we're doing today and we have continued to launch additional products that both make our platform more valuable to the clients that we already have, who are primarily crypto investors and crypto market participants, but also take this financial services infrastructure that we've built in the crypto ecosystem and apply it to other areas of traditional financial services.

Zac Prince: (18:57)
What does that mean? Well, we're launching a Bitcoin rewards credit card. That's our first product in the payments category. The payments category is one that we're going to be very active in on the retail side of our platform. We're going to be launching a debit card, peer to peer payment functionality and more on and off ramps so that our clients, both in and outside the US are able to easily transition between a traditional bank account or a FinTech platform where they hold funds like PayPal and the BlockFi ecosystem. And ultimately the impact that I expect we'll have there and that the entire industry will have there is financial services are going to be better, faster and cheaper and more accessible for global consumers. And I think that's a very, very powerful impact that this industry is going to have on the world. And BlockFi will be a significant part of that.

Zac Prince: (19:47)
Then on the institutional side of our platform, clients will be using us for a lot more types of activities than what they are today. Right now we're mainly offering the ability for folks to trade the spot market, but we're going to expand into derivatives. And I think there might be parallels in markets like commodities in FX, where some of the infrastructure that we've built out for crypto can also be applied for some of our institutional clients. Thematically, continuing to accelerate and do more things on the crypto side of the platform but also expanding more into what we think of today as traditional financial services. I ultimately think crypto, FinTech and traditional finance is all going to merge and BlockFi's part of that story in terms of what you'll see from us in 2026.

Anthony Scaramucci: (20:37)
All right, well I appreciate you being on SALT Talks. I would be remiss if I didn't include my erstwhile partner, Jason Zins who I think shave three days ago. And he knows I'm a like George Steinbrenner, so I want people clean shaven. Zac, you can do anything you want. You're doing a beautiful job at BlockFi. I'm a proud investor and I'm looking forward to getting my credit card. And go ahead, Mr. Zins. I know you've got questions that you were thinking about for Mr. Prince.

Jason Zins: (21:08)
Thank you. And I did this to get you going so the public can see the real you. You're hard on us sometimes.

Anthony Scaramucci: (21:16)
I'm a very demanding boss, Zac. But then again, I don't ask them to do anything I wouldn't do myself.

Jason Zins: (21:23)
And the HR director, if I have a problem with it.

Anthony Scaramucci: (21:25)
I am, yes. If there's a problem at SkyBridge, I'm the personnel director, Zac. They have to put the suggestions in the suggestion box right here by the Muhammad Ali portrait. I set those on fire at 4:30. We had a little burning ceremony. Go ahead, Mr. Zins. Go ahead.

Jason Zins: (21:45)
Zac, I want to pick up on one of the points you ended on, which is sort of bridging the gap between the crypto ecosystem and the traditional financial ecosystem. And one, I want to commend you for it because I think a lot of times these days in the Bitcoin community and the crypto community, it's sort of us versus them. Whereas I think longer term to your point where Bitcoin is headed and where we really think the value is, is more engagement, more adoption. And so I think again, I want to commend you on helping to try and bring it mainstream. Now the flip side to that though is we're five years from now, it's 2026. You guys have executed on your plan. You're then playing in the sandbox with the big banks. Everyone sees the announcements from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley but you probably have some special insight here. Where do you think the banks are as it relates to supporting crypto in some of the manner that you guys already are doing?

Zac Prince: (22:48)
Yeah, so I think they're definitely more interested in making more progress today than they were last year or the year before or the year before. They are absolutely starting to do things. Some banks faster than others. And I think that's a trend that's going to continue because the opportunity in the sector is only going to continue to go up and they have to be here because if they're not, then their clients are going to be doing these activities with other folks. That being said, there is a tremendous lack of clarity from a regulatory perspective in a way that a bank would need clarity to do all of the things that a company like BlockFi does. And these aren't companies that turn on a dime and launch new products and technologies really seamlessly. That's not one of the strengths that we would describe banks as having is nimbleness and speed.

Zac Prince: (23:52)
What we're starting to see is two things today. One, asset management products being added to the wealth platforms. I believe it was Morgan Stanley that's added a couple of funds. I'm sure others will follow. And folks like Goldman are starting to get active in cash settled derivatives or clearing futures for some of their pre-existing clients. Ultimately, I think that all of these things are great for the sector. It all ties into the theme of accessibility and access and financing. And in fact, there are things that I anticipate BlockFi will be doing with some of the major banks in terms of partnerships or us being a client of theirs or even vice versa, depending on the scenario. If we are not able to at BlockFi, stay ahead of the curve relative to banks in terms of how fast they're building solutions.

Zac Prince: (24:56)
And I'll give you a couple of examples. If you start clearing cash settled Bitcoin futures, you're probably still a ways away from being able to do that on the cryptocurrencies number two through 10 in the market cap stack. Well, that's not the case for a platform like BlockFi. You're probably not close to offering your clients the ability to participate in staking or the different global markets around the world. And then on the retail side, look, they're even farther away from doing anything on retail that has tremendous regulatory and political ramifications. And ultimately all of the great FinTech companies that we know today have been created during periods of time where the banks were perfectly capable in theory of competing with them and a lot of massive companies have been built. I think we'll have an edge there in terms of technology and client service and just being on the front foot of innovation and user experience with our platform. We're in a good spot. We welcome their participation and it's definitely going to only increase as time goes on.

Jason Zins: (26:05)
Great. Well, I think one of the many aspects of your business that I find so impressive is how in such a short period of time you've rolled out and successfully rolled out all of these new products. Certainly seems like you're continuing to stay ahead of the curve. I do want to pick up on the regulatory side, because that's sort of synonymous when anyone is talking about Bitcoin or cryptocurrency. Give us the high level lay of the land on the regulatory side, as it relates to BlockFi specifically and then just the broader ecosystem.

Zac Prince: (26:40)
Sure. BlockFi specifically, we're a MSB, money services business, at the federal level. That's your KYC, AML type regulations. And then we hold money transmission and lending licenses at the state level. We are always evaluating ways that could enhance our regulatory positioning. And this is something that happens with lots of FinTech companies. Just to use Square as an example, in the early days of Square, they had a materially similar setup to the setup that BlockFi has today. Over the last couple of years, they've made progress on creating a new bank in Utah. And so whether BlockFi over the short or medium term makes it all the way to that bank step where we end up somewhere in the middle remains TBD. There are things that we're working on there and we do expect that there will be a progression over time. But every license we've ever applied for we've received. Oftentimes these are licenses where we're the first company ever getting this type of license for this type of activity.

Zac Prince: (27:51)
And so there's a lot of engagement and education that we do with the regulators. And overall, I think we've struck a very reasonable approach to the industry to date in the US and finding an appropriate balance between facilitating innovation, enabling the sector to get created and thrive and trying to tamp out things when they're too far in the deep end. I would be remiss not to say that we still have a ton of work to do as an industry. There are things that are just laughably bad today. For example, the treatment of cryptocurrencies on a balance sheet under the public company accounting rules, not being able to mark them at fair value is in my humble opinion, quite absurd and something that probably everyone in the industry can rally around as a area that needs some change.

Zac Prince: (28:55)
And there are still a few things that need to get sorted out with the SEC in terms of clearer definitions around tokens or why we don't have a green light for a Bitcoin ETF yet. I think those are probably two of the biggest things that are important for us to work on as an industry with regulators in the near future. But overall, I've been relatively happy with how we've let things play out. And I think that the US ultimately will stay true to form in terms of being a place where we want to facilitate innovation. We want to have these new high growth, high technology, high impact industries be built and domiciled here because it's great for the economy.

Jason Zins: (29:43)
It sounds like your philosophy, your view is really to embrace regulation or at least work with the regulators as opposed to try and operate in these gray areas that may exist out there.

Zac Prince: (29:57)
Absolutely. And look, even if you're operating, even if there's something that's a gray area, that doesn't mean that you shouldn't engage. And I think that's part of our DNA at BlockFi and that DNA comes from a traditional FinTech. There are numerous stories in FinTech corporate development, in other industries in FinTech that experienced a big boom and consolidation and maturation over time as an industry where striking that right balance and it always is a balance, separates the leaders from the folks that ultimately end up not being in positions one, two or three in a particular category.

Jason Zins: (30:45)
Great. Well, I think we're getting towards the end of our time. I know on Twitter, of course, as I'm sure you've seen, everyone's asking for when they're getting their credit card. Can you tell us anything when we can expect it?

Anthony Scaramucci: (30:57)
I'm getting my credit card right after this podcast, I mean right after this SALT Talk, that I know.

Zac Prince: (31:02)
We have waiting list for folks who aren't named Anthony Scaramucci.

Anthony Scaramucci: (31:07)
Oh, I'm hugging you.

Zac Prince: (31:10)
And involved with BlockFi as an investor. We have a waiting list with a little over 400,000 people on it. What I can say is that by the time this airs, if it is indeed till the seventh, we will be taking folks off of that public waiting list. We won't be fully through the waiting list, but we will have launched it and the folks on the lower numbers, the first couple of thousands at least of the waiting list, will be getting their cards. And then we're going to work through the waiting list as quickly as we can. And by August, September of this year, we're going to be doing a ton of fun marketing. If you're flying around a major airport, you'll probably see ads talking about airline points are worthless, you should be earning Bitcoin and we're going to go big with it and have a lot of fun.

Anthony Scaramucci: (31:55)
All right, well, I'm going to be spending all my money on my BlockFi credit card, Zac. I just want to make sure you know that. Zins, can you call the Lambo dealer please and find out if they accept BlockFi Visa? Can you call them for me after this?

Jason Zins: (32:08)
It's a Visa card, so you tell me Zac. I assume it can be used anywhere Visa is accepted, as they say on the commercials.

Zac Prince: (32:15)
That's right. Everywhere Visa is accepted.

Jason Zins: (32:18)
Anthony, everyone saw the pictures of you in the Lambo, Anthony. We saw them on Twitter, but let's wait to buy for the credit card.

Anthony Scaramucci: (32:27)
By the way, it was a rented car. I know everyone goes crazy with the hating and everything. But I did get an orange colored car for the weekend, Zac, because I thought it was Bitcoin orange, Zac.

Zac Prince: (32:39)
I thought that was beautiful. Unfortunately, I'm nowhere near as cool as you on the car front. We literally have, we have two Kias.

Anthony Scaramucci: (32:48)
Let me tell you, anytime you want to come over to the Scaramucci house, because we're Italian, we got to have cars. Everybody's got to have a car in the family. Anytime you want to come over, drive any of the cars, you're welcome to, but something tells me you're not going to need to do that. You're an amazing entrepreneur. You've got incredible commercial instincts and I think one of the hallmarks of your success, in addition to your charm and your salesmanship is your adaptability. The way you've moved through your career and positioned this company, I'm just looking forward to your future and being a shareholder. I'm super proud of everything you're doing and so thank you for joining SALT Talks and we'll see you soon, Zac. You got to come to the SALT Conference. I'm expecting you there.

Zac Prince: (33:34)
Thanks, Anthony. We'll be there.

Anthony Scaramucci: (33:35)
I'm expecting you to have a kiosk with the BlockFi Visa.

Zac Prince: (33:37)
We have a booth.

Anthony Scaramucci: (33:38)
Yeah, exactly.

Zac Prince: (33:39)
I think we're a sponsor with a booth, the team with be there.

Anthony Scaramucci: (33:41)
I'm looking forward to handing out BlockFi Visa applications to all my friends and delegates.

Zac Prince: (33:47)
Sounds great. Thanks so much for having me, guys.

Anthony Scaramucci: (33:49)
Happy Fourth, my friend.

Jason Zins: (33:50)
Thanks, Zac. That was great. Appreciate it.

Nic Carter: How Much Energy Does Bitcoin Actually Consume? | SALT Talks #230

“Eliminating Bitcoin’s exposure to the whims of the CCP is obviously a good thing. Broadening the geographic footprint is obviously a good thing. I don’t want 70% of Bitcoin’s hash power to be in any single jurisdiction.”

Nic Carter is General Partner at Castle Island Ventures, a public blockchain-focused venture fund based in Cambridge, Mass. He is also the co-founder of Coin Metrics, a blockchain analytics startup.

Today, Bitcoin consumes as much energy as a small country. This certainly sounds alarming — but the reality is way more complicated. Nic Carter joins us today to discuss several common misconceptions surrounding the Bitcoin sustainability debate, and ultimately argues that it’s up to the crypto community to acknowledge and address environmental concerns, work in good faith to reduce Bitcoin’s carbon footprint, and ultimately demonstrate that the societal value that Bitcoin provides is worth the resources needed to sustain it.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Nic Carter.jpeg

Nic Carter

General Partner

Castle Island Ventures

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 - Intro

2:40 - China’s Bitcoin and tech crackdowns

8:13 - Bitcoin mining and capital inflow disruptions from China

29:48 - Bitcoin energy consumption

37:27 - Bitcoin, El Salvador and the lightning network

43:29 - Bitcoin ETF approval timeline

49:03 - Using on-chain metrics

52:50 - Crypto venture investments

TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie: (00:07)
Hello, everyone and welcome back to SALT Talks. My name is John Darsie, I'm the managing director of SALT, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance, technology and public policy. SALT Talks are a digital interview series that we started in 2020 with leading investors, creators and thinkers. And our goal on these talks is the same as our goal at our SALT Conferences, which we're excited to resume in September of 2021 here in our home city of New York, and we hope you can make it.

John Darsie: (00:39)
But that's to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And if you've been watching SALT Talks over the past 18 months since we started the series, you know that the crypto or digital asset space is an area that we're keenly interested in. And I've had a lot of the top minds in the space here on the SALT Talks series and we're happy to take another one off the list here with the great Nic Carter.

John Darsie: (01:05)
Nic is a general partner at Castle Island Ventures, a Cambridge Massachusetts-based venture firm investing in startups in the public blockchain industry. And he's also the co-founder of Coin Metrics, which is a great blockchain analytics firm. Previously he served as a crypto asset analyst at Fidelity Investments. He holds a master's in finance from the University of Edinburgh and a bachelor's in philosophy from the University of St. Andrews.

John Darsie: (01:29)
As somebody with a Scottish heritage, I very much appreciate your academic background, Nic. But hosting today's talk is Brett Messing, who is the president and chief operating officer here at SkyBridge Capital, which is a global alternative investment firm with significant exposure, I might add, to Bitcoin and potentially other investments in the crypto, digital asset space coming down the pike. But with that, I'll turn it over to Brett for the interview.

Brett Messing: (01:56)
Thank you, John. Nic, it's great to have you here. I'm a big fan of your stuff. I think you've done a real service to the Bitcoin community, particularly in addressing concerns around the energy issue. I do want to timestamp this because it's June 22nd and eight days ago, I returned from a silent meditation retreat actually with Russ Stephens of [Night EG 00:02:20], and I came back to find Bitcoin at 41,000.

Brett Messing: (02:25)
And today it traded as low as 28,600, although it's higher. And there's a lot of China news, and so I think we should start there. Fortunately, this isn't a family show, so Nic, what the fuck's going on in China?

Nic Carter: (02:42)
I think we're all wondering that right now. I would say there's like several different intertwined threads in China right now. One is the hash rate transition, that's an entire topic. It's something I've spent a huge amount of time trying to understand, talking to Chinese miners that are relocating. That's one thing that's certainly affecting the price in a couple of ways we can get into.

Nic Carter: (03:05)
The second is this continued crackdown on the ability of regular Chinese folks to get exposure to crypto, and those channels are being constricted and closed off. That's related, I would say to the mining activity, but that's a distinct phenomenon. So those are two really dramatic moves happening at the same time in China, happy to start with either, but yeah. China is basically the most important nexus to the market right now.

Brett Messing: (03:38)
I want to hit both. Before we do, I want to put it in a broader context or I want to get your reaction to something. It seems to me that people in Bitcoin, probably myself included think that everyone is solely focused on Bitcoin, and that China is out to get the Bitcoin, so the politburo is getting together and all they're talking about is Bitcoin. It seems to me what's going on is a broader attack on tech and fintech.

Brett Messing: (04:06)
So we can go back to the Alibaba IPO getting pulled, which was, if someone who worked at Goldman and equity capital markets, a remarkable event, 48 hours before pricing. And by the way, I would point out that Alibaba is not as big as Bitcoin market cap-wise, but is not that far away. And if it had gone public and traded up, it probably would be about the same size as the market cap of Bitcoin is presently.

Brett Messing: (04:33)
We haven't seen Jack Ma, the CEO TikTok is forced to step down. There was another tech billionaire that I guess had his wrist slapped last week. I don't remember the guy's name. So this feels like a part of that mosaic and not a Bitcoin attack. I guess, I like your reaction to that, and then we'll jump into the miner discussion.

Nic Carter: (04:58)
China is the worst place in the world to be a tech billionaire. It's a very perilous occupation to be a tech founder in China. It seems that given the local appreciation or lack thereof for property rights, there's a cap on how large you can take a tech company until you start to get harassed by the government or it gets forcibly broken up or nationalized in a certain way. And so it's just a tough place to be a tech founder.

Nic Carter: (05:29)
I think you're absolutely right to draw connection between the crackdowns on Bitcoin exchange in mining and Alipay. It seems to me that ultimately a big part of the motivation for this is the creation of the DCEP, China's digital currency network effectively, which would basically seize power over the transactional financial sector from the private sector, from these intermediaries like Alipay and WeChat and consolidate that power with the state.

Nic Carter: (06:07)
And so it's not that surprise to me to see the pendulum swing back in the other direction towards centralized system like the DCEP, especially as these private sector entities had gained so much traction and were intermediating such a large share of the payment space. So that crack down on Alipay makes sense in that context. We're seeing the CCP is heavily investing in the DCEP. They're rolling out ATMs to connect physical cash to the digital cash product.

Nic Carter: (06:43)
And we can certainly talk about the interplay with Bitcoin there. But yeah, I think you're right, this is definitely part of a broader trend to reconsolidate power.

Brett Messing: (06:55)
Let's talk about the mining. About, I guess it's a month ago or so, the central party said, "No Bitcoin mining." There've been a bunch of Bitcoin mining bans for those of us that are relatively new compared to you and no one was sure what it meant. And we saw a bunch of miners leave the coal regions. I think it was a reaction, okay, okay, well, this has to do with clean air. This past weekend, we've seen a province where it's all hydro and we've seen massive shutdown.

Brett Messing: (07:28)
It's real, it's not just a proclamation. I'd also add, and maybe you can speak to this, I've tracked the prices of mining equipment. And a month ago, I would say they were soft. Now obviously the price of Bitcoin is down a lot, but the price of the mining gear, well, not yet at what I would characterize distress levels is down a lot. What does it all mean? I'm going to give you a couple of different vectors to go at it.

Brett Messing: (07:58)
One is for Bitcoin security. Is there anything to worry about? The environmental issues, which are no front and center. Why don't we just start with those two?

Nic Carter: (08:14)
Security and climate. The Chinese miner situation is the most dramatic hash power shift since industrial mining has existed in 2013. And so I think it's really worth understanding why so much mining capacity ended up located in China in the first place. China is the world's capital of basically stranded energy, so energy that cannot be brought to market for whatever reason. This is because typically because the transmission line losses, so energy doesn't travel well.

Nic Carter: (08:47)
So if you're generating a lot of cheap energy in one place and you want to transport 1,000 miles to population center where it'd be consumed, you're going to experience significant losses, it's not going to be worth it to do that. And so in 2016, China was curtailing on the order of a hundred terawatt hours of solar, wind and hydro energy. And effectively that's the perfect energy source to mine Bitcoin, because Bitcoin doesn't care where it's mined.

Nic Carter: (09:14)
And so because China had massively overbuilt their hydro, wind, solar resources, and they also had very abundant coal resources in the Northern provinces, that's why Bitcoin mining ended up dramatically located in China. And that's why China had this 70% market share of mining for the longest time. So that was good and bad. Good, because two of those big provinces where Bitcoin is mined were Sichuan and Yunnan, which are 90% hydro.

Nic Carter: (09:42)
But then the other two provinces where Bitcoin is significantly mined in China are Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. And those are 60, 70% coal with the remainder being wind and solar. And so what happened was the Bitcoin miners would kind of seesaw from the Northern, mostly coal-powered provinces in the dry season to the Southern hydro-powered provinces in the wet season. Right now it's the wet season, so mining would typically be occurring in Sichuan and Yunnan for the most part.

Nic Carter: (10:14)
But what actually happened and was interesting is that trying to build out over the last decade, this high voltage transmission grid to basically turn their very fragmented multiple energy grids into more unified whole to bring this curtailed energy to market in the population centers on the south of China and the east coast of China, which is where the big energy load is.

Nic Carter: (10:40)
And so that's important context to understand something that might well be motivating this crackdown on mining is not simply this desire to marginalize Bitcoin and stem capital outflows and to promote their own digital currency, but also the very pedestrian fact that their grid is just working better and there's less stranded energy from minus to exploit. And so that's something that hasn't been covered as much in the discourse is just changing industrial policy in China affecting their tolerance for miners drawing on these stranded energy assets.

Nic Carter: (11:22)
So from a climate perspective, it's really going to depend where that hash rate ends up going. And we're talking about 50 to 60% of Bitcoin's network cash, something on the order of probably-

Brett Messing: (11:33)
Let me just interject, Nic. So do you think that all of it leaves or is there a black market mining? So a year out or so, let's assume it's 50 to 60 it's gone on the hash rate or computing power is in China, where do you think we're headed?

Nic Carter: (11:52)
I think all of the industrial mining, the large scale, 100 megawatt plus mining firms leave China. They're very easy to triangulate and locate. And the crackdowns we've seen, the first province to go is Inner Mongolia, they really cracked down on the province level with raids. They were able to effectively identify all of the major players. So I think you will see small scale operations, for sure.

Nic Carter: (12:16)
It's easy to run an ASIC or two with cheap power, but I believe that all the industrial mining capacity based on the signals we're getting from China right now, and based on what I'm hearing from miners on the ground will leave China within six months.

Brett Messing: (12:30)
Got it.

Nic Carter: (12:33)
I don't know when this is going to air, but in Sichuan, it looks like there's effectively a one month deadline from this week for miners to shutter their operations. So it's likely that we're going to see the Bitcoin hash rate declined by another 20, 30% because that's where most miners should be operational right now.

Brett Messing: (12:51)
And so where would you think it would go? I guess if you put your self in the shoes of a miner, where would you want to go?

Nic Carter: (13:01)
If I were a miner, I would have a renewed respect for political stability and the protection and respect of my property rights, and getting away from capriciousness on the part of the energy authorities. So it's no surprise that the number one destination for miners is to go to USA, where we have the second most capacious grid in the world. It's a federal system, so the states have different policies, some are favorable, some are less favorable.

Nic Carter: (13:29)
And indeed, we're seeing Greg Abbott, the governor of Texas pitched Bitmain clients at a conference in Chengdu last week saying, "Yeah, come to Texas, we have the capacity." And it's true, Texas actually does have the capacity to absorb the share of Bitcoin miners that are leaving the network. Their grid instability issues are an ancillary issue, but they do generally speaking, not at peak times, but most of the time Texas does have the capacity to absorb this. So the USA would be my first choice.

Nic Carter: (14:00)
There's not a ton of actual hosting capacity available in the U.S. right now, that's going to take six to nine months to build. So there might actually be this furlough period, where miners are just looking for a home. They're actually not able to onshore their hash rate. Leaving the U.S. aside, the other big destinations would be Russia and Kazakhstan and other parts of central Asia. Those are the less regulated, so you can bring an operation to bear more quickly.

Nic Carter: (14:28)
They have relatively cheap power. Unfortunately, in Kazakhstan, it's mostly coal. In Russia, you do have other renewables, you've got hydro. Those are some of the destinations I've heard kicked around. I've also heard Southeast Asia kicked around as a possible destination, but the truth is we're just not going to know for a while. And there's going to be a period of uncertainty and probably depressed hash rate as miners desperate look to actually find places to house their machines.

Brett Messing: (14:54)
So do you think Bitcoin will end up being mining will be greener or less green just again, based on the incentives and available places to go for miners?

Nic Carter: (15:09)
It's a good question. The Chinese story was complex because you had half of the year mining at an extremely low carbon intensity, effectively, zero with waste water running out of these dams that were already built. So there was no additional contribution to emissions by mining with that water that was going to run through the river, run through the dam anyway. And then the other half of the year, you're mining with coal from Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia.

Nic Carter: (15:37)
And so, your emissions factor, your carbon intensity is fluctuating dramatically based on the season. And so, you're still getting... Because coal is by far the dirtiest form of thermal energy, you're getting a relatively high emissions factor. If you on short all that hash rate to the U.S. the us grid has deemphasized coal in the last decade and it's much more natural gas-focused, and depending on the state, you have plenty of renewables too.

Nic Carter: (16:03)
That would probably be better overall for Bitcoin's emissions factor. If you were able to identify other hydro or renewable sources in Northern Europe and Russia, it is going to improve the carbon outlay of the Bitcoin system. If however, all of these miners just end up being mined with coal in Kazakhstan, it's going to be no better and possibly worse. So it's going to be a matter of actually monitoring where these machines are going, seeing if the pools are willing or the miners themselves are willing to contribute data regarding their energy mix.

Nic Carter: (16:36)
And that's something that I'm definitely optimistic about because miners have begun to understand that it's totally worth it to provide disclosure around this stuff, because if you don't disclose, then people just assume the worst. And so miners have begun to do this calculus where they realize, oh, if we do have 50% renewables as part of our energy mix, we should actually tell people about that.

Nic Carter: (16:58)
Hopefully this historically very opaque mining space becomes more transparent in the next year, much more, US-Based, I'm sure we're going to see that regardless. Hopefully more actually publicly traded companies and then they'll be doing disclosure anyway. So I'm very optimistic about the informational environment around Bitcoin mining, but I can't actually guarantee that it will become greener, especially because China is unnecessarily shutting down mining in the hydro-rich provinces, which seems pretty excessive.

Brett Messing: (17:29)
Nic, what's approximately the total revenues for the mining industry just globally broadly in a year?

Nic Carter: (17:38)
Current prices would be around $20 billion from Bitcoin.

Brett Messing: (17:42)
Okay. So we have a $10 billion business, call it approximately half of it quasi up for grabs. We're not completely right. Do you see any large us companies looking at this opportunity? And is it a natural fit for someone like Microsoft, Verizon, General Electric, Honeywell, Tesla, where they have existing infrastructure that they could probably get this going relatively quickly?

Nic Carter: (18:16)
The first one I would identify would be Tesla SolarCity, because it's totally viable to mine with a combo of wind and solar in conjunction with maybe a battery backstop or maybe a grid backstop. And that's going to give you a current levelized cost of energy. That's going to give you energy at three, four cents a kilowatt hour. You're going to be profitable at that rate. And I could totally see them creating a consumer product around that, around hosted mining that people could buy into.

Nic Carter: (18:44)
So any large solar producer distributor that also maybe has access to some wind assets. Solar alone doesn't work because it has a low capacity factor. If you pair it with wind, you get an uncorrelated distribution profile in terms of one of the energy is being created. So that portfolio of assets tends to work. And there are parts of the U.S. where solar and wind together work well, Northern Texas, for instance.

Nic Carter: (19:10)
That would be one obvious case. A lot of people have pointed this out to Elon, you can actually do something about the climate impact of Bitcoin if you rolled out a product like that. Other publicly traded companies that have some relevance to mining would be data centers. Amazon, Google operate huge data centers. When they have downtime with their GPUs, they could easily mine Ethereum, which is GPU-minable.

Nic Carter: (19:35)
My suspicion is that they may actually already be doing this. So at times of low load on those GPUs, they can turn that economically inner resource into something that is economically generative. That's not a Bitcoin story, that's more GPU-minable assets. But I think there will always be things like that, whether it's Ethereum or Filecoin or Chia. You could also use hardware to mine those. That's one very addressable thing.

Nic Carter: (20:06)
Lastly, the oil majors. These oil companies that have enormous gas or oil extraction wells, where they're producing significant quantities of natural gas, which they're flaring off in many cases because it's not economical to bring that gas to market. This enormous segment out there now, I call it pipe to crypto. Effectively, flared gas mining, you get a shipping container full of Bitcoin ASICs. You pair it with a generator that takes natural gas inputs, and you can effectively monetize the stranded resource, which you'd otherwise be flaring off.

Nic Carter: (20:43)
And that's completely not neutral from a climate perspective. So I've been paying attention to the earnings of the oil companies, expecting them to say, "Yeah, we're experimenting with flared gas mining," as a way to monetize this resource that they're otherwise wasting. So far, they haven't said anything about it. I'm actually pretty surprised that they haven't.

Brett Messing: (21:03)
I'm going to put on my Bitcoin PR hat and say, I'd be fine if they don't. Okay.

Nic Carter: (21:08)
I can see the headlines, [crosstalk 00:21:11] versus Bitcoin, that's right.

Brett Messing: (21:12)
I'm not sure that would be particularly helpful. This weekend, as I was watching this event on Twitter. There was video of mining equipment being unplugged as this... The beginning of this implementation, I wasn't aware until you said that there's a 30-day cutoff for all this mining to come out of this hydro-rich region. I was incredibly bullish and I think it's going to be the biggest event of the year. I guess we're going to kill the attack vector, China controls Bitcoin.

Brett Messing: (21:49)
I have to say, and I imagine others, I don't think I've... And I had my brain around that. I don't really understand what came out yesterday, which is the closing off of the on-ramps, how that relates to what happened previously and what that really... Are we going to see Chinese citizens unable to buy? Are we going to see for selling? I know it's early, we're 24 hours after they convened a meeting, but I'd love your perspective on the sort of the second leg, which did because this drop below 30,000, even though we've recovered since then.

Nic Carter: (22:29)
I think your analysis of the mining situation is spot on, eliminating Bitcoin's exposure to the whims of the Chinese Communist Party is obviously a good thing. Just broadening our geographic footprint, regardless of which country it's disproportionately based in is obviously a good thing. I don't want 70% of Bitcoin's hash fire to be in any single jurisdiction. And so, whether that threat was real or imagined, it's something that we can effectively mitigate.

Nic Carter: (23:00)
And so this seems like a stroke of luck that the CCP or the China would really crack down harshly on Chinese mining on its borders, forcing it abroad, forcing it to become more dispersed into a bunch of different geographies. Regarding the second leg down, I do think that's one of the more critical features of this, because we know there's a Chinese retail bed in these markets. That's where a significant portion of the capital comes from.

Nic Carter: (23:26)
And if you choke off that access, you're going to eliminate a significant inflow into the markets. That's not just through the exchanges, will be an Okcoin, the mainland on-shore exchanges. That's also through RMB to other OTC desks that are more informal, and it appears that China is also targeting those. And so there's a few sources through which capital can flow out of China into crypto, thus making it mobile and allowing people to ultimately invade those capital controls.

Nic Carter: (24:01)
It looks like China is taking an incredibly aggressive stance towards that now. From what we've seen, and it's still unclear what's happening, they seem to really be trying to choke that off. What I'm looking to is, are the executives, Okcoin and Huobi going to continue to be harassed by the government? We know that they've been detained in the past 12 months for a month or two at a time, and actually the market has sold off when those events occurred. Because people figured that there was a risk that those exchanges would be nationalized or the holders would be expropriated in some way.

Nic Carter: (24:40)
And so that's what I'm looking to, do those exchanges, which have existed under the watchful eye of the CCP and been tolerated by them, will they continue to be allowed to operate? But my guess is that there'll be some additional regulation or some additional attempt to control the funds in and out because the Chinese government has rightly realized, correctly realized that the crypto markets are means to offshore wealth from the country.

Nic Carter: (25:12)
And so it's just one of those ways that their capital account was being drained and looks like they were finally taking it seriously. It's a threat.

Brett Messing: (25:25)
Historically, when you ban things, it doesn't work; prohibition, drugs, but China's different. It's essentially an autocracy. So what I hear you saying is, this is a real negative, that we're going to... Because I do want to touch upon just the demand, supply dynamics in the marketplace. What I hear you saying is that we lost Grayscale as a buyer in January when the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust traded at a discount, which has persisted. That we may be looking at another source of buying that will disappear. Is that right? And can you quantify that?

Nic Carter: (26:12)
Yeah, correct. That would be the conclusion I would draw is that there's another inflow, which is being effectively cut off. And I would look at for instance, Tether creation, which is... We know Tether is a very popular instrument in those Asian markets as a bridge currency, basically to get access to crypto in general. And a lot of those mainland trades are brokered against Tether directly. And so if you see that rate of creation slowing down, that implies a waning appetite or a loss to the ability to get access to crypto.

Nic Carter: (26:52)
But I'd also look at the reserves being held by Okcoin and Huobi, which there's a bunch of Chainalysis companies that have triangulated those. I haven't looked this time, but during those previous events when the executives who were being detained, you could see there's an immediate outflow from those reserves as depositers of those exchanges started to fear that the exchanges would be closed up and it would be impossible to redeem their funds. So those would be kind of the two key indicators I'd be looking at.

Brett Messing: (27:27)
Right. I want to touch on the energy debate, which I think has contributed to Bitcoin's decline from higher prices firing the Coinbase IPO as there's been this heightened ESG focus, which is just a real thing in the U.S. And I think it has resulted in some institutional investors pressing pause and you've been out front and I think done a really fantastic job in making a case. I do want to raise an issue that I have a coral with broadly with the Bitcoin community and get your reaction to about the arguments that I think are being made.

Brett Messing: (28:09)
Firstly, I'm not particularly sympathetic to the, it's my energy, I can use it however I want. Because you buy land, we restrict where you can build, you buy booze, you can't give it to kids, you can't drive with it, so we restrict the uses of private property. While I have a libertarian bend, that argument, doesn't resonate with me. I hear two conflicting arguments on the energy issue. I hear on the one hand... Well, it's not that much. It's the amount of energy used for Christmas trees, it's the amount of energy for blow dryers, it's the amount of energy for YouTube.

Brett Messing: (28:50)
I don't know if any of those stats are correct, but you do hear other framing of energy use, the idea being, I saw a stat recently, it's only one or 2% of waste energy in the U.S. Again, trying to make it seem like it's not that big a number. But then on the other hand, we have this research piece by Square and Arc that says that Bitcoin is going to really facilitate renewables in the United States and globally.

Brett Messing: (29:23)
And those two arguments seem inconsistent because if it's small, how can it matter in furthering renewable energy. And by the way, it may just be, the answer is different people making different arguments. And one of the best things about Bitcoin is we're all not sitting in a room. But I'd like your reaction to that just generally.

Nic Carter: (29:49)
It's interesting because when I've written about Bitcoin energy, a lot of Bitcoiners will ask me to not apologize for it and to be defined and say, "It's our energy we can do with it what we want. It's a function of the grid and individual consumers of that grid energy should never be apologetic for using it, something that's been duly paid for." But I do think it's important to try and think about how Bitcoin could be rendered more carbon neutral over time. That's been a focus of my research over the last few months.

Nic Carter: (30:25)
I would agree probably that Bitcoin is not sufficiently material as a buyer of energy to really move the needle from an environmental perspective. I think that transition is just going to happen anyway from towards more renewable source of generation. The state is much more important in terms of doling out subsidies and the private sector through R&D, just through the general functioning of the economy, which is now prioritizing more renewable energy sources.

Nic Carter: (30:59)
If Bitcoin is this $20 billion per year pressure to find cheap energy, that's actually pretty small in comparison to the amount that's expended in the regular old energy sector. So I don't think it's really large enough to move the needle from a renewable perspective. I do think that just as time goes on and this might be a bit of a longer-term trend, the cheapest forms of generation will be renewable.

Nic Carter: (31:27)
And so that's kind of a secular trend if you look at any of the lasered levelized cost of energy studies, you see the utility scale, solar is now getting down to three cents per kilowatt hour and offshore wind is getting down to kind of sub five cents per kilowatt hour. Because we still have all this technological innovation be found there and these efficiencies to be found, I do expect the renewables will just simply be cheaper and better than thermal energy, where we've squeezed all the pips out of the lemon as far as coal or natural gas is concerned, and we're not going to get any cheaper in terms of coal-powered energy.

Nic Carter: (32:05)
So I believe that that grid transition is going to occur. I'm also pro nuclear, but there seems to be less political support for that in this country, unfortunately. But yeah, it's certainly a challenge. I think Bitcoin miners can abate it in a couple ways, so they can... And they're also being incentivized too, capital markets in this country are increasingly politicized. It does tend to matter. You do increasingly need to take broader stakeholders into account, not just shareholders.

Nic Carter: (32:36)
And so Bitcoin miners have started to realize this, that they have an obligation that goes far beyond just their mere shareholders. And so what I've seen from especially US-based Bitcoin miners is a pursuit of renewable energy sources, grids that are disproportionately renewable, even a purchase of renewable energy credits or offsets. I'm seeing that from a few different miners and hosts. And then just an effort to be more transparent about the type of energy being employed. So it's all pretty optimistic.

Nic Carter: (33:13)
And then the other good trend is that we're just going to see more hash rate onshore into the U.S. anyway, and be more exposed to U.S. capital markets and the demands that capital tends to carry these days. So more hash rate in the U.S. I think is just generally better for Bitcoin's ecology.

Brett Messing: (33:33)
Well, I'm not going to break news on this podcast, we have about $600 million in Bitcoin and we are looking very hard at purchasing credits. Because we think the ESG issue is a real issue and you take the world as it is not as you want it to be. And this is something that Bitcoin will be, in my judgment better off by taking seriously, as I think. Look, people don't like Elon Musk, Elon Musk will have done Bitcoin of service. He has focused people's attention, those of us in the community on this in a way that we would not have been.

Brett Messing: (34:08)
Eventually we would have ended up the same place, but I think he's going to accelerate. I'm certainly not applauding his tactics. He's been inelegant in how he's conducted himself, but if it has a good outcome, I'm fine with it.

Brett Messing: (34:23)
I want to touch on something else. You hear a lot about, well, Bitcoin can be used to balance the grid. And I want to press on that because it seems to me that if I buy a mining rig and I'm only going to use it part-time, how can that make sense when there's someone else who's going to buy a mining rig and find an energy source where they can use it 24/7/365. That argument feels to me like it sounds nice and it's sort of like get off our backs about the energy issue. It doesn't feel like a real solution. If I'm wrong, tell me how.

Nic Carter: (35:11)
Maybe there's just a little more subtlety I can inject there. It depends on the grid [crosstalk 00:35:17]

Brett Messing: (35:17)
That was a real polite way to saying, "Brett, you don't get it," which is fine, which is why I'm so happy to have you here.

Nic Carter: (35:23)
It depends basically on the nature of the grid. I agree, you definitely want to run your ASIC at 90% plus op time because you're depreciating it over, let's say three years and you don't want to have a significant period of time where it's economically not being employed for sure. Certain grids have these power-rich purchase programs, where at times of peak load, they basically pay big consumers of energy to stop consuming energy.

Nic Carter: (35:54)
The good thing about miners is that you can turn them off at short notice, which is very much unlike other industrial consumers of energy, let's say an aluminum smelter where you can't just turn it off at the drop of a hat. And so in the Texas grid, ERCOT, for instance, that's exactly what's in place. Most miners there will be active on these repurchase programs.

Nic Carter: (36:17)
And so during the time when the miners are idle at peak times where the grid is trying to direct power to households so that they can run their air conditioning at 6:00 PM on a hot summer's day or something like that. Those miners' actually still economically viable, it's just that they're being paid to turn off. And miners are particularly suitable for that because they can spin up and down so quickly.

Nic Carter: (36:43)
So I would say, in the case of formal repurchase programs existing, the grid stabilization claim does actually make sense to me. But that's not the case for all grids, that has just definitely be in place like an agreement like that.

Brett Messing: (36:59)
I was going to say, I think that's a pretty relative if you looked across the United States. There aren't that many places where the dynamic you described is in operation. Would you agree with that?

Nic Carter: (37:11)
This is where I'm reaching the limits of my expertise in terms of energy politics in this country.

Brett Messing: (37:14)
Okay, I get it. No, you've done great. Let's touch on El Salvador and I'll let John ask you a few questions, so we don't keep you. So big deal, little deal, no deal?

Nic Carter: (37:27)
I would say big deal because for the first time, this is an instance where we can call Bitcoin legal tender, currency and money. So a lot of economists always reject me or other Bitcoiners calling Bitcoin currency or money. They say, "Well, it has to be generally accepted as a medium of exchange in a specific jurisdiction." This Salvadorian law does that. And so while it is a small country, small GDP, not very important on the world stage, this is just crossing the Rubicon.

Nic Carter: (38:04)
Not to overstate the point, I would say it's as significant in Bitcoin's history is the time when Bitcoin initially monetized from being worth $0 to being worth 0.00, whatever dollars when that pizza transaction occurred. This is incredibly significant in my view because it's being institutionalized as a currency in at least one jurisdiction. To me, that's really huge.

Brett Messing: (38:31)
Were you surprised that they didn't buy any Bitcoin for the reserves?

Nic Carter: (38:36)
Honestly, that's how I thought that the first sovereign level actor would engage with Bitcoin. And I thought that we would see it from the Singapore Sovereign Wealth Fund or the Norwegian one, first, I thought it would be really technocratic, forward thinking, relatively affluent state that would be the first to take the plunge and diversify their reserves. That was obviously not the case.

Nic Carter: (39:02)
I was pretty shocked that El Salvador chose to go through the legal tender law approach and encourage Bitcoin as this medium of exchange, which to be frank, it's really not that suited for, especially in a country like El Salvador. So yeah, I didn't think that they would go this aggressively towards the medium of exchange. I think just buying some Bitcoin in your FX reserves is easier and makes more sense. They may still do it, who knows? I feel like the El Salvador story is not fully written yet.

Brett Messing: (39:33)
I would say that the only concern I have about what's going on in El Salvador... By the way, I agree, total big deal. So it was a bit of a setup question, is that somehow they screw it up. And so my question is, I think a remittance market, which in a prior life, I was actually deputy mayor of LA and remittances is obviously a big market in Los Angeles. And we did everything we could do locally to protect citizens, which was not a lot under city law.

Brett Messing: (40:04)
But I'm pretty current on the issues, any rate, I think it's 22% of their GDP. And so they're going to use the Lightning Network and my understanding is that, and I'll describe it, I want to send 50 bucks to my friend in El Salvador. I'm going to basically go onto like a Stripe, I'm going to convert my dollar to Bitcoin. When you use a technical term, it's going to get zapped to El Salvador.

Brett Messing: (40:30)
And then if they want it in dollars, they'll get another currency transaction from Bitcoin to U.S. dollars, and that happens right in the span of less than a second. Is it ready for that? In other words, I saw that there's something like $60 million of Bitcoin, I guess supporting the Lightning Network. Is it ready for such a thing?

Nic Carter: (41:00)
Lightning may not be at a current state of maturity where it could stand the strain of an entire country's worth of remittances. I will say that Bitcoin as a bridge currency is definitely a use case we've seen. So being that utility settlement layer between the end points in the remittance trade, there's certainly a number of startups that do it.

Nic Carter: (41:21)
There's a local Boston, one called LibertyPay that does their men's channel from Massachusetts to Brazil and they just settle up Bitcoin transactions between exchanges. And then the exchange is the nexus where you trade in and out of Fiat currency. So there are a variety-

Brett Messing: (41:38)
Nic, can you just explain that? Can you just explain it from one user to another, how would the Liberty do it?

Nic Carter: (41:43)
Yeah. Actually interesting and we're actually not investors, so I just find it fascinating. From the perspective of the user, they're really not aware that the transaction is actually through bidding through Bitcoin at all. That's just the settlement rails, but they cash in a supermarket or something. And that gets converted into Bitcoin, probably on a batched basis, batched end of day basis at an exchange, then the exchange settles up.

Nic Carter: (42:13)
They're probably even doing net settlement with the Brazilian counterpart exchange. And then at that exchange, it gets converted into Reals. And so there's relatively few hops involved. This was actually the original premise behind Ripple really, but as it turns out, the market didn't really see a lot of value in Ripple as the bridge currency and some of these remitters realized that they could ride on those Bitcoins settlement rails.

Nic Carter: (42:40)
Especially if there's local premium in Brazil, you can monetize that trade in terms of the inflow. That's definitely something that we've seen. There's a number of exchanges that are basically serving as defacto, like backbones for utility remittances. So you can almost overlay remittances on top of the crypto exchange network, which is one of the really interesting dynamics.

Nic Carter: (43:07)
But as far as like settling each transaction individually through Lightning, I think that's probably pretty cumbersome right now.

Brett Messing: (43:15)
By the way, I say that as a massive Elizabeth Stark fan. Just want to put that out there. Last question before I go to John. ETF approval, March 31, 2022, over, under? What do you got?

Nic Carter: (43:30)
I'm still going to go under. I'm still optimistic, I think the facts are on our side. I think Gensler will eventually see that. They're imposing a much, much more rigorous and much higher standard for a Bitcoin ETF than any other financial product ever, any commodity ETF. They've got 4X inverse levered, natural gas ETFs that it's truly decay to zero, that's allowed. But Bitcoin, one of the most liquid markets broadly dispersed, globally traded with professional high quality index providers, to still believe that that's unworthy of an ETF is beyond me. So I do expect that the SEC eventually sees the light.

Brett Messing: (44:15)
We have a filing before the SEC along with 10 or more others, so I shouldn't say much about it, but I would say I agree and I just think... I guess I'm going to say just what you said, the case forward is much, much stronger than the case against it, full stop. And to me, that wasn't the case several years ago and I think that is the case now. And I think we get one when Gary decides we want one.

Nic Carter: (44:44)
At this point, to be frank, I believe it's a political issue. And other asset classes have had ETFs at far less liquidity, far less overall market cap. There are many commodities than a much smaller than Bitcoin and more centralized and who owns them, and have less sophisticated market infrastructure. To me, Bitcoin has met all the criteria laid out in the prior ETF disapprovals.

Nic Carter: (45:10)
Whether it's a surveillance sharing agreements, whether it's qualified custodians of material, share of the markets being onshore. The existence of exchanges that are regulated by the CFTC. To me, it's met all those criteria. Now, it's just up to the SEC to see the light.

Brett Messing: (45:28)
I do think though that you raised the real concern I have, which is politics, and I'm increasingly worried that Bitcoin is going to become a partisan issue, where everything else in the world is mass, where if you think about the political's dynamic here, the Biden administration is not going to be able to deliver the progressive wishlist. He's going to deliver whatever Joe Manchin lets him. And I think he's going to try to play to the progressive wing on other issues.

Brett Messing: (45:58)
And so it worries me that Elizabeth Warren and Maxine Waters and Angelina, who I have not great history with, and will never come around on Bitcoin that he slow rolls it because it's a bone to throw to the left for a while. So I think you rightly point to that dynamic, because again, just purely on the merits, we should be there by the fall.

Nic Carter: (46:25)
It troubles me that it is so partisan. I tend to not believe the Bitcoin should be partisan. It's apolitical monetary system it's really neutral. Bitcoin doesn't care who you are, what you believe in terms of whether your transaction can settle validly. But I think I can probably only name two Democratic representatives that have expressed a pro Bitcoin sentiment. That'd be Ro Khanna and Darren Soto.

Nic Carter: (46:54)
Maybe I'm missing some others, but it does seem to be increasingly politicized, which is perturbing and unfortunate, I think at the state level, Bitcoin will have certain states that ended up taking very favorable paths and some that don't. And so maybe that's the saving grace, is just the federal nature of the system.

Brett Messing: (47:15)
No, and I think we as a Bitcoin community need to do a better job of making the case to the Progressives because after Elizabeth Warren did her Bitcoin rant or cryptocurrency, we have mutual friends and I had someone reach out to her and essentially say, "She spent her whole career focused on banks that repress, underserved and underprivileged communities. How can she not understand that this is an escape from that?" But she's doing the bidding of Jamie Dimon when she attacks Bitcoin. It's really that simple.

Brett Messing: (47:53)
By the way, we like Jamie Dimon. We'd love to have you come to SALT, but anyway. Hey, Nic, I'm going to let John ask you a few questions. This has been fantastic. Go for it, John.

John Darsie: (48:07)
And speaking of SALT, Ro Khanna will be speaking in September, so we're eager to amplify voices that look at things from a nonpartisan perspective, which I think Ro does on a number of issues, including on Bitcoin and crypto. I'm going to ask you about your two businesses that you're involved in Nic. One, Coin Metrics. You co-founded Coin Metrics, fantastic resource for a number of different sources of data on-chain metrics being one of them.

John Darsie: (48:32)
In terms of the way you've looked at this sell off and the way you look to identify potential turning points, and just the way you evaluate rallies and pullbacks in Bitcoin, are there are certain metrics that you're taking a look at right now that signal to you that maybe we've reached a bottom or maybe we haven't reached a bottom? I know there's been some discussion about change in liquidity from exchanges, off exchanges maybe signaling that hot LERS are accumulating Bitcoin again here at these lower prices. But how are you looking at on-chain metrics right now during this pullback?

Nic Carter: (49:04)
That's a great question and the beauty is that on-chain data has reached a level of sophistication and a variety of market participants too and providers that is really would have shocked me five years ago. I started Coin Metrics in 2016 when I was in business school and I wanted some verifiable data regarding crypto assets and just what the on-chain economy was like. And I was completely fumbling in the dark, I really had no idea what was interesting and what was worth looking at. It's incredibly immature.

Nic Carter: (49:34)
Fast forward to today, there's a number of different providers and this is an enormously robust industry and then tens of thousands of people that look at on-chain data and trade against all day. So it's really astonishing to see how far the industry has come. In terms of what I'm looking at, I would look at exchange balances but be careful with those samples because oftentimes the samples don't have all the exchanges in them.

Nic Carter: (49:57)
So if you're looking at exchange balances, oftentimes you'll be fooled about in and outflows. You might actually just be looking at rotations between exchanges. So you have to be very wary of the data quality issues in any of those datasets. I'd be looking at something like the ratio of market cap to realize capitalization. Realized cap shows you the aggregate cost basis of all the holders.

Nic Carter: (50:22)
Historically, that's been an oscillator that's been extremely good at picking tops and bottoms. It certainly was signaling top in May. I'd be looking at the share of coins that are currently active, especially the six month and one year cohorts. So we're fractional coins on Bitcoin have moved in the last six months, moved in the last year. When you see that number cranking up, that suggests that there's a lot of available liquidity in the market.

Nic Carter: (50:55)
And we actually tend to see that in rallies, as the rallies pull liquidity off the sidelines, out of long-term holders, who then divest and exchange those coins in near holders. And then more specific I'd look at the age profile of holders. So whether we're looking at short term holders for long-term holders, and the beauty of this thing is that you can assess this, you can have this granular data. You can track every single unit of Bitcoin and what kind of holder owns it, what address size they are.

Nic Carter: (51:24)
So that'd be the last thing I would also look at, whether smaller wallets are accumulating or divesting, what larger wallets are joining us. But also probably not enough time to take you through all the charts, but the on-chain data story is just such an amazing and deep rabbit hole.

John Darsie: (51:42)
The charting episode will be our second episode of SALT Talks with Nic Carter. But last question, Castle Island Ventures, you're wearing the great vest there. I think Patagonia now is refusing to finance companies logos on vests, maybe Castle Island will be exempted from that. But what type of venture investments are you most excited about in the Bitcoin ecosystem? You see market caps exploding or valuations exploding across private investments, across a range of different crypto type companies.

John Darsie: (52:11)
You got to think there's some baby in there, some bath water there, and what are the companies that you're most excited about? And what are maybe some areas you might not want to discuss this part of it, but do you think might be getting a little frothy or ahead of himself?

Nic Carter: (52:25)
Well, the thing is with Patagonia is that they just don't know if you buy the vest and have a third-party embroider it, so that's-

John Darsie: (52:31)
I thought there might be a loophole in that whole scenario, but-

Nic Carter: (52:36)
Yeah, it's not that difficult of a roadblock to route around, so that's my pro tip to any client experts

John Darsie: (52:41)
It's like peer to peer Bitcoin purchases in China.

Nic Carter: (52:45)
Exactly, exactly, with the equally powerful adversary. We just raised our second fund, we're actively deploying. Selfishly I think the market sell off is pretty great because it means that the private valuations that were extremely frothy, because obviously the public markets trickled down into the private. Those have come down a little bit. And frankly during the bear markets, the best companies tend to get funded, because you get the highest integrity founders, folks that want to build in the crypto space regardless of the valuations and have extremely high conviction on the asset class.

Nic Carter: (53:25)
And so if we were to enter an extended period of sideways trading, God forbid or a long bear market, that would be good for the average quality of entrepreneur, and that's what we're here to do. So we're not complaining too much about the sell-off in terms of what we're looking at. We've always been looking at seed and Series A stage financial infrastructure businesses in the Bitcoin and crypto space, whether that's exchanges, brokerages, lenders, asset managers, data providers, analytics, key management, wallets, things like that.

Nic Carter: (54:00)
Basically tools to take this asset class and make it mature, make it functional and bring it to the next billion users. We're only at a hundred million users worldwide. We think we can do a lot better. And so, one thing that we're specifically focused on right now is building sophisticated market infrastructure in X U.S. jurisdictions. So whether that's crypto dollarization in Latin America, whether that's retail brokerages in Africa, retail brokerages in Southeast Asia. That's where we're spending a lot of our time right now.

Nic Carter: (54:37)
I think the story of Bitcoin is increasingly been written outside the U.S. and it's a story of financial inclusion and giving people access to this apolitical settlement network. And there's some really key pieces of infrastructure that are needed do that. The U.S. exchange market is extremely saturated, amazing levels of choice as a consumer. If you live in Nigeria, you live in Indonesia, that's just not the case. And so we have a global mandate, so we're looking abroad to those kinds of jurisdictions to deploy this next fund.

John Darsie: (55:10)
All right, well, Nic has been a pleasure to have you on. We hope you can join us at the SALT Conference in September. You talked about how bear markets sort of reveal the real credible players in the space. We had our SALT Conference in may of 2019 in Las Vegas. It was during the tail end of a crypto winter and there were still tons of really smart people and exciting companies that came and that we featured that conference that were iterating in the space despite the price of Bitcoin.

John Darsie: (55:38)
So we always like to say, "Watch the news, not the noise." Adoption is growing, is accelerating despite price fluctuations. But thanks for coming on, we hope to see you soon. Brett, you have a final word for Nic before we let him go?

Brett Messing: (55:50)
No. Just thank you, Nic, this was fantastic.

Nic Carter: (55:54)
My absolute pleasure gentlemen. We'll definitely be there in New York.

John Darsie: (55:58)
All right, fantastic. We've been talking to your partner, Tim, over at Coin Metrics and look forward to having you guys there. But thank you also, everybody for tuning into today's SALT Talk with Nic Carter. He has done so much for the Bitcoin community in terms of combating energy FUD, China FUD, all kinds of different FUD. He's the king of combating FUDs, so we appreciate everything he's done.

John Darsie: (56:17)
Just reminder, if you missed any part of this talk or any of our previous SALT Talks, you can access them on our website. It's salt.org\talks. We have an entire series of SALT Talks on digital assets with most of the big voices in the space, so we definitely invite you to check that out and please spread the word. Talking about FUD, we like sending around these YouTube videos and podcasts episodes to make sure that people are truly educated on the asset class before they start casting aspersions.

John Darsie: (56:45)
But on behalf of Brett and the entire SALT team, this is John Darsie signing off from SALT Talks for today. We hope to see you back here again soon.

Jack Mallers: Bringing Bitcoin to El Salvador | SALT Talks #229

“The lightning network is a protocol that sits on top of Bitcoin. If we solve variable time and cost, we give instant and relatively free transaction finality to this monetary network- arguably the biggest step forward in money as a technology in history.”

Jack Mallers is the Founder and CEO of Zap, which created Strike, a bitcoin investment and payments company that transacts over the Lightning Network. Jack is known as one of the earliest Lightning Network developers, and recently has been providing market insights to help build El Salvador’s modern financial infrastructure using Bitcoin technology. This technology delivers powerful advantages over legacy financial rails and incumbent payment systems. “What’s transformative here is that bitcoin is both the greatest reserve asset ever created and a superior monetary network. Holding bitcoin provides a way to protect developing economies from potential shocks of fiat currency inflation,”

Strike is a mobile payments app that allows users to send and receive money anywhere, instantly, for free. Strike is built on top of the Bitcoin network – the largest global, interoperable, and open payments standard. Strike believes that open payment networks enable universal participation in the financial system, ushering in a new digital economy with truly borderless money transfers. Strike leverages Bitcoin’s open payment network to offer users the first global peer-to-peer payments app and a novel bitcoin-native financial experience.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Jack Mallers.jpeg

Jack Mallers

Chief Executive Officer

Zap

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 - Intro

3:40 - Strike's remittance trial in El Salvador 

12:20 - How Strike is paving the way for the future of remittance payments via Bitcoin’s Lightning Network

17:20 - How layer 2 protocols can improve Bitcoin for remittances 

19:06 - Bitcoin & El Salvador: the full story

25:20 - The process of onboarding entire countries

32:40 - Advantages of making Bitcoin legal tender

38:00 - Reasons for phasing out USDT

40:00 - Driving global Bitcoin adoption

45:00 - How is Bitcoin’s volatility changing?

TRANSCRIPT

John Darsie: (00:07)
Hello everyone. And welcome back to Salt Talks. My name is John Darsie, I'm the managing director of Salt, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance, technology and public policy. Salt Talks are a digital interview series that we started in 2020 with leading investors, creators and thinkers. Our goal on these Salt Talks, the same as our goal at our Salt conferences, which we're excited to resume in New York in September of this year, but that's to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. We're very excited today to bring you the latest episode of our digital assets series with Jack Maulers. If you're in the Bitcoin space, obviously he's a name that needs no introduction. Your name has been everywhere recently Jack, but if you're not in the Bitcoin space, I think you'll hear his name pretty soon with things that are going on around the world.

John Darsie: (01:02)
But Jack is the chief executive officer and founder of Zap, which is a Bitcoin investment and payments company that transacts over the Lightning Network. Zap is perhaps most famous for its Strike app, which the app is being used in El Salvador. El Salvador recently announced that it is making Bitcoin a legal tender, the first country to do so, Jack led that initiative with the president of El Salvador. Now the Strike app is being rolled out across the country to enable Bitcoin payments. He also was the driving force behind the Bitcoin car and the ND 500, he has the Bitcoin racing team hat on there.

John Darsie: (01:38)
The number 21 Chevrolet was branded all Bitcoin Ed Carpenter's racing team. So that was an awesome incident for the Bitcoin community as well. So Jack, it's a pleasure to have you on. Hosting today's talk is Brett Messing, who's the president and chief operating officer of SkyBridge Capital, which is a global alternative investment firm with also a significant stack of Satoshi in our investment funds. And Brett, I'll turn it over to you for the interview.

Brett Messing: (02:06)
Thanks John. Hey Jack, thanks so much, really happy to have you here.

Jack Mallers: (02:11)
Thank you for having me. I'm a huge fan first and foremost. I think you guys did tremendous work and I'm very excited that you're Bitcoiners now, so I'm happy to be here. Let's go baby.

Brett Messing: (02:23)
We are Bitcoiners. So we're going to talk a lot about El Salvador, but I don't want to tell you about my Jack Maller's journey. So everyone is brought into Bitcoin by their own Bitcoin sherpa and I'm a Goldman Sachs alum and there are a bunch of early OG Bitcoiners like [Pip Reagor 00:02:41], Mike Novogratz, Dan Morehead and they helped me as well as Ross Stevens who we were talking about before we got going. But in the fall I think it was, I was listening to you on a podcast with Peter McCormick and you were describing how you and your company were going to address the remittance market, and in a prior life I was actually deputy mayor of LA and remittance is a big issue in LA of course. There's a very little a city can do, but we did whatever we could do to protect the residents from getting fleeced while sending money home.

Brett Messing: (03:17)
But anyway, I listened to you and Peter and I got off and my takeaway was, if this kid, sorry, I'm old enough to be your dad. So I say it, it's with love. If this kid can actually do this, Bitcoin is so much bigger than I imagined it was. And I called up Pip Reagror and Ron Stevenson, basically said that to him, and Ross said to... Pete didn't know, Ross is like, "Yes, he can." So let's start there. I guess we could send people to Peter McCormick's podcasts, but that's his content, this is our content. Can you talk about how you guys use the Lightning Network basically to address the remittance market? Because it really is a massive use case for Bitcoin that I think people don't understand. I didn't.

Jack Mallers: (04:04)
Yeah, 100%. And I think how we're using the lightening network and whether it's cross-border payments or just consumer merchant payments and questioning interchange for example, goes back to visiting monetary networks as a general concept. So Bitcoin is traditionally associated with slow payments, slow transaction times, not a lot of throughput, and that's why it's slow and inefficient and can never be used as a currency. That's the mainstream headline that everyone's familiar with over the last decade. Well, the Lightning Network is a protocol that sits on top of Bitcoin and you don't need to know all the cryptography and all the fanciness. But really smart people, arguably the smartest people in the world, set out to solve two things on the Bitcoin network. It was one, the variable amount of time it takes to achieve finality in a Bitcoin payment and then two, the variable cost that it takes to achieve finality with a Bitcoin payment.

Jack Mallers: (05:02)
And if we were able to solve the variable time and the variable costs, and we were able to give instant and relatively free transaction finality, cash finality to this monetary network, it would be arguably the biggest step forward in money as a technology in human history and the best monetary network of all time in human history. So that's an introduction to the Lightning Network is what it enables. It works, we did it. And what it enables is instant and nearly free and sometimes absolutely free Bitcoin transactions. And so if you encompass that with what Bitcoin is, now you have an open monetary network that operates 24-7, you have a digital barrier instrument that carries the sufficient liquidity profile in every single currency you could ever dream of 365, 24-7, and you can move fiscal value, no sense of credit, no balance sheet float, real hard value anywhere in the world at any time, at any place.

Jack Mallers: (06:02)
So the thesis that we hold at Strike is, well, let's take a look at other monetary networks, monetary networks that exist today to allow us to exist financially. The Square monetary network, the PayPal monetary network, the VISA monetary network. All these monetary networks achieve similar things, right? They define identity. Like what's the difference between my VISA card and your VISA card. They define payment standards. How do I send a payment? How do I receive a payment? They define credit and debt and finality and clearance. So if you think of Bitcoin in the Lightning Network as a monetary network of its own, it does all those things, except way better, except way cheaper, except way faster. Oh, and by the way, it's more inclusive. How well does the PayPal network work in El Salvador? Not very well.

Jack Mallers: (06:48)
How well does the Lightning Network? It works the same in Chicago, works the same in London, works the same in New York and it works the same in the third world. It's more inclusive and then lastly it's open. So the fact that it's open means that there's inherent network effects and economies of scale that are unprecedented. Open networks defeat closed networks throughout human history, exclusives of money. And this is the first time we've ever had an open monetary network. So what that means is that there's millions of people that are working on this network and no close network can ever compete. If you think of Bitcoin as a monetary network and PayPal as a monetary network, who has more employees? Who has more salespeople on Twitter? Who has more merchants subscribing? How many MIT professors are working on cryptography for the PayPal monetary network? Zero.

Jack Mallers: (07:33)
How many are working on Bitcoin? A lot. So for all of those reasons, we subscribe heavily to the concept that this monetary network is going to dematerialize the existing monetary networks that exist today. And the first killer app in my opinion was cross-border payments, because the inefficiencies are just absolutely absurd. It's the most outdated, expired. It's an expired carton of milk. It's two to 10 intermediaries to make a cross-border payment. It takes two to 10 days, and fees are upwards of 50% because there is no open... It isn't a race to the bottom, the market is not efficient and people especially in the third world get relatively abused by financial inclusion and fees and such. So first order of business once we got everything stood up was make cross-border payments free and instant. So that is the end of my rant and we'll go wherever you want from there.

Brett Messing: (08:25)
All right. So here's a thing that you said that blew me away. So maybe you can expound on this. I would love to make it very personal. I want to send money to a friend in Mexico city. He wants pesos. And what I understood you said is I can take my dollars, and they get converted to Bitcoin. And I'm going to use a very highly technical term, zapped on the Lightning Network for Mexico City, where they are converted, there's a Bitcoin to Mexican pesos transaction, and my friend now has... I sent 50 bucks, neither of us wanted really anything to do with Bitcoin, but Bitcoin facilitated this transfer of value. And I think that's incredible. So I don't know if I described that right. If I did, or if you can just speak to that. I think putting into real practical terms, these majestic concepts that you laid out I think will move people.

Jack Mallers: (09:31)
Yeah. So our product Strike, which was referenced in the intro. We divide Bitcoin the asset. So this is the asset that's 21 million coins. It's issuance is known, its monetary policy is defended in a distributed network of cyber hornets as Michael Saylor likes to say. And then there's the monetary network. And the monetary network, you can do a way. What if it's 22 million coins? What if it's 2.1 million coins? The network doesn't necessarily care. What if the monetary policy blocks every 20 minutes instead of every 10 minutes. The monetary network achieves similar things and enhances what existing monetary networks do and so our approach is can we enable people to benefit from this amazing monetary network, this absolute revolution in money as a technology without being encumbered by Bitcoin the assets? Bitcoin the asset is taxes property, Bitcoin the asset carries a lot of volatility. Bitcoin the asset is really accounting, tough accounting pains, people also aren't incentivized to send it.

Brett Messing: (10:33)
I'm wearing a Bitcoin hat. Don't pee all over Bitcoin. Come on man.

Jack Mallers: (10:37)
Well, the point is people aren't even incentivized to spend it. If I just hold the thing, I get wealthier, so why would I actually use it? So there had to have been a way to build an experience for consumers that they're traditionally used to. Link your bank account, scan a QR code, hit send, but use this new novel monetary network under the hood. So to delve into your example, that is exactly correct if I want to send $100 to Ireland received as euros. What the software does is it takes $100 out of my chase debit account, it's going to convert it into Bitcoin. It's going to zap the money on the Lightning Network over an ocean across a border, real fiscal value where it will land in Ireland and interface with counterparties to give it the BTC-EUR liquidity profile, to switch it back into euros and credit the user.

Jack Mallers: (11:27)
So what's happening is we're using the most efficient monetary network on the planet to escrow our fiscal value. We get cash finality on an open system instantly in and at no cost. And then we're using this new digital bare instrument, this new digital property in cyberspace, it's the most hardworking asset on the planet. It works 24-7, no other asset does that and it has liquidity profile of every currency ever. So once we escrow the value on the network and we have this magical asset parked, then we just exchange it for the goods and services with the various counterparties that can. So not only has that enabled amazing things, but also think about working capital costs, what's transfer wise working capital costs versus a Bitcoin infrastructure set. It's the most magical, impressive thing that's happened across border payments long before I was born.

Brett Messing: (12:18)
So is this now operational? How many people are doing what we just described? And I guess let's make it very personal again. Can I do this in other words, is it functional for me to use in some way or are we beta testing it in a more limited way? Give me a state of the union if you will.

Jack Mallers: (12:40)
Yeah. So beta testing in Europe now, we plan to be in over 100 countries within this calendar year. And the first pilot that made the most sense to me was El Salvador, which ended up becoming something much larger than a beta for cross border payments. But the thesis was here you have a country that operates on the dollar, they don't have a nation currency anymore. Over 20% of the country's GDP is in remittance. It's how capital is influxed into the economy. However, fees can be upwards to 50%. And there's a very important insight on that. If I would send a million dollars to El Salvador is Western Union going to take 500 grand? No.

Jack Mallers: (13:19)
Fees aren't 50% on a million dollars, fees are 50% on 10 bucks, on 100 bucks because there are fixed costs associated with the legacy financial system. So not only does this monetary network allow for free and instant, but it also opens a new economy of micro cross-border payments for those that have $300 a month of income and that they don't send a million dollars back home, they send $100 dollars back home a month. So it made all the sense in the world to enable a cross-border micropayment economy that was free and instant, and really how I plan on improving the GDP of the country by launching my product. So that is highly functional. We're onboarding 20,000 Salvadoreans a day, seeing tremendous amount of success and now we're going to launch in Europe.

Brett Messing: (14:10)
But Jack, you need to get people on both ends, right? So there's the Salvadorians, have to sign up. But they're family members or friends or whomever is sending them money in the United States need to do likewise. How does that... If you get the Salvadoreans, do they just tell their family member, you need to get this app. This is a better way to send me the money. Can you just talk about that rollout?

Jack Mallers: (14:38)
Yeah. Well, it's the best customer acquisition tool in the world. The family phones them and says, "Hey, listen, remember how you used to send $100 and I'd bus six hours to Western Union, and Western Union would only give me 70, and then I'd oh, another 30 to the gangs that sit outside and threaten my life. So now I come home with half of it and it's days worth of chores and I have to skip work every single month to go collect the remittance, well, download this app, link your bank account or fund it with cash collateral, and I get the remittance instantly to my cell phone from the comfort of my home. And you send 100, I keep all 100." So that customer acquisition tool, I don't need any marketing. Get out of here. That's just bread and butter right there.

Jack Mallers: (15:19)
But the other important thing about this is it's an open network. So if someone has a Coinbase account, they can interface with our service. If someone has a Square account, if someone has a Kraken account, millions of wallets, the beautiful thing on an open network is there's a singular open source standard and once you implement it, you are plugged into the open monetary network and all the services and nodes and networks that live within it. So yeah, sure. I would love them to be on Strike because I think it's arguably the best service on top of this open system, but they don't have to be, and that's amazing. So initially in the pilot it was how are we going to get these people liquid and exchange in and out? There's no Salvadorean Bitcoin exchange, but there are Bitcoin ATM's everywhere. So people would collect these remittance, we'd store it, and then they'd go to the ATM's and they'd cash out.

Jack Mallers: (16:04)
And the question is what? Did I install Strike ATMs all over El Salvador? No, there's no Strike network. There's no strike ATM. I'm on the Bitcoin network, this is a Bitcoin ATM and that's a power of the open monetary system, is that I benefit from other people's work. And so out the gate the product worked fabulously and then now as more services build and integrate and are interoperable with open network, the network effects and economies of scale, you just can't compete with that, because PayPal tried to compete with that, they'd have to hire thousands of new employees. I didn't hire anybody.

Brett Messing: (16:36)
So the remittance gets sent to El Salvador, but if I'm right, the receiver is receiving USD, right?

Jack Mallers: (16:45)
Correct.

Brett Messing: (16:46)
So they don't have to worry about going to a Bitcoin ATM, they're getting hit with US dollars in their bank account.

Jack Mallers: (16:54)
Yeah. Both the sender and the receiver can just interface with fiat currency and they don't even... A lot of our users, arguably majority having no idea that Bitcoin or any of this cryptography is involved in the efficiencies we're delivering. For a lot of them they just see as like, "Oh, wow. Innovation finally for remittances. Finally I can receive it safely and not get bullied into fees."

Brett Messing: (17:19)
I want to spend a lot more time in El Salvador. One more question though, just and I want to make sure I'm understanding, our audience as well. So in the US we a layered financial system, right? The Federal Reserve is on the bottom, then we have commercial banks that can go to the Fed window, PayPal sits on top of the commercial banks, VISA sits on top of the commercial banks. PayPal sits on top of VISA. The Lightning Network which is how you're making this magic happen is layered too on top of the slower, what we think of traditional but super safe Bitcoin network. Is that accurate? And do you have anything to add to that because I think that's an important concept for people to understand.

Jack Mallers: (18:02)
Yeah, that's absolutely correct. And it's also important to note that this isn't a novel concept and this isn't a concept that Bitcoiners came up with, is that protocols scale and layers traditionally most famously the internet. Is that you've got HTTP, you've got TCPIP and the internet is actually made up of seven layers. So that's absolutely correct. You've got the Bitcoin base layer, which optimizes for censorship resistance, decentralization, ultimate security and robustness and ensuring the consensus rules and monetary policy the asset. And then you've got the Lightning Network which comes comprised of different rule sets of this protocol. And once you subscribe to them, they're optimized for cash finality as cheap as possible and as fast as possible. Then on top of that, we sit, and we plug into both the Lightning and Bitcoin networks and we deliver software to people. And we as a company have the belief we can empower economic freedom for everyone. And we want to do that by making these networks as accessible and easy to use as possible. So we sit on top of them and we build software.

Brett Messing: (19:07)
Cool. All right. Back to my Jack Maller's journey. So importantly Bitcoin is not a security, and why is that important? Because there is no insider trading in Bitcoin. So we can all gossip about Bitcoin and no one's going to [inaudible 00:19:22]. And here's why that's important. There are no secrets in Bitcoin. So if you're plugged into the right text thread or group of people, there's just no secrets. So about a month or two, someone told me that Jack Mallers is down in El Salvador, and he's helping draft legislation that's going to integrate Bitcoin into the government. And I said, "That is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard." This is a real country. I assume they have some people who went to Harvard and worked at Goldman Sachs or they can get someone who's at Stanford Business School or Kathryn Haun from Andreessen Horowitz, and lo and behold there's a lot of things in Bitcoin where you have to open your mind. It is true. So if you can just tell us the story. How did that happen?

Jack Mallers: (20:13)
Yeah. I'll try and make it quick.

Brett Messing: (20:14)
I'm glad I was wrong by the way, I'm so happy to have been wrong.

Jack Mallers: (20:19)
Yeah. No. I'll make it as fast as I can, but I-

Brett Messing: (20:22)
No, take your time.

Jack Mallers: (20:22)
Okay. So I went down to El Salvador. It's very important to give a shout out to the Bitcoin Beach Project. So not only did this country carry the characteristics that embodied... They needed help. They needed help from a very high level. They needed help reinstilling basic human freedoms and financial inclusion, and that the federal Reserve's monetary expansion, the spill over was drastically impacting the quality of life and has been for a long time there. And that over 70% of the country didn't have a bank account, and there was a serious problem with financial inclusion, which ultimately I associated under the category of basic human freedom. So I needed to go, but there is a project Bitcoin Beach, and they had started what is a circular Bitcoin economy for those that didn't have bank accounts. And they were plugging into this open monitoring network and achieving financial inclusion through the Bitcoin network.

Jack Mallers: (21:16)
And they deserve all the credit in the world, legends of their time, they'll be remembered forever. So I went to El Salvador to visit that town, and I wanted to learn and ultimately launched Strike and improve on the financial inclusion and human freedom problem with the country. So while I was there we launched the product, I learned a lot. I met a lot of amazing people and got to really intimately feel the experience that these people were going through. Then we had a lot of success and I got a message on behalf of the president of the country via Twitter. Was a Twitter DM, and I was at a sushi restaurant and I didn't think twice about it. I thought it was another spammy message. I get a lot of those. And then I double-take and I noticed that it's the brother of the president, and I was like, "Oh God, okay, this is real."

Jack Mallers: (22:06)
And I'm sitting with two employees and I'm like, "Okay. We're either getting arrested or we're going to make history." And it was very unclear which one. Called my dad, I told him the president, I asked for a seven day window to see him, he said he had 24 hours. And I was like, "Oh boy. Okay." So I'm going into fight for human freedom. I believe in what I'm doing. I believe in my truth. So I called my dad, I say, "I'll see you on the other side, wish me luck, but I'm doing this for Bitcoin. I'm doing this for the betterment of humanity." And I went in there. I didn't have a suit. I went in there in a hoodie, it's all I had. And the president's brother came out in a hoodie and we hugged.

Jack Mallers: (22:39)
And we started to talk about rebuilding an inclusive financial infrastructure that embodies free markets and embodies human freedoms. We talked about the design of the country we would want to live in, we would want our kids to live in and we would want the world to eventually adapt towards. And at the United States and the European Union, and a lot of the more developed world was in no position to take such a stride. And that El Salvador felt like the perfect opportunity and to be brave on behalf of humanity and human freedoms and people that needed help, and that we had an opportunity to do something amazing.

Jack Mallers: (23:11)
And it was always about free market. It was always about the one quote that they kept saying was we want people to be themselves, is that by 18 years old, you society enforces almost that you take on six figures worth of debt to pursue a degree in something that you don't know you want to do, and that you end up optimizing your life around paying back debt and then going into more debt by the form of a mortgage and things like that. And that that isn't a great life and that doesn't create a great society because people can't be themselves and can't be free.

Jack Mallers: (23:44)
So they wanted to build a society that enabled freedom and that foundation starts with hard money, with economic opportunity, and with a sound financial system that's ultimately inclusive and doesn't carry any intermediaries that can bully anybody out of anything. That was the very ground level discussion. Then over time we iterated on things and we talked about everything. We talked about anime, talked about cartoons, talked about artwork, talked about music, and then how to use Bitcoin to solve two fundamental things, is protecting developing countries from the Fed spillover and their monetary expansion, and then improving on developing countries' financial inclusion and giving everyone fundamental financial access and human freedoms that they don't necessarily have when they're born today. And that is the start of what ended up becoming what you know of.

Brett Messing: (24:36)
I think that's an amazing story. So where we are today is El Salvador has passed a law to make Bitcoin legal tender, right? And as most probably aren't aware, I wasn't aware until recently about 20 years ago like many emerging nations, we forget how many countries in the world are babies, right? These countries have been around for less than 70 years, the independence movement was in the fifties and the sixties. They launched currencies and the currencies failed. So I think it was in 2003, El Salvador scrap their currency and the US dollar is their currency. So now they're going to have this dual system. How do they see it operating? And I know we have 81 days until we implement, but what does implementation look like? Of the legal tender law in El Salvador?

Jack Mallers: (25:39)
Yeah. The optimization is around the network and the financial inclusion and the openness of the network and embracing the free market. It's very important to know, there's been some confusion. It's not mandated that people hold Bitcoin, that they long Bitcoin, are exposed to volatility and such. The government, and again I'm conversating, I want to make it very clear. There's no commercial agreement between the government and Strike. I'm not beholden to anything. I speak my mind. I speak on behalf of myself and my company and you can think of me as just an advisor to what they're trying to do. And they call me, I give advice and they are reliant on my expertise and how they see fit. So get that out of the way. My perception of conversation with the government was it's important to retain the dollars legal tender for a lot of reasons. One of which is Bitcoin's highly volatile, it's very young. And as an asset you don't want to forcefully impose custody of savings in your general life quality on top of Bitcoin right now. If an individual decides to do so, that's fantastic.

Brett Messing: (26:49)
I just want to say I might have done that already. But anyway, that aside, because put that out there.

Jack Mallers: (26:57)
Me too. It's up to the individual. The point is that the legal tender law is not imposing that that decision is made for you on behalf of the government. That's not it at all. What it's about is treating Bitcoin as equivalent to the dollar. So there's one line in the law that's very important and that you cannot charge premium for things paid in Bitcoin versus a dollar. So if I go and buy pupusa for $5 and I want to pay in Bitcoin, you can't then charge me 10 because you don't like Bitcoin. Instead it's going to be treated equally as a dollar and that there is an... What they wanted to do is expedite interoperability with this open network. Because they have viewed that a large success and empowerment to the country and empowering the free market and empowering this world where people can be themselves and there's ultimate inclusion and there's no intermediaries.

Jack Mallers: (27:46)
And all of these amazing things come by being interoperable with this monetary network that is Bitcoin and the Lightning Network. So the line that everyone's freaking out about is that if you can and have the capabilities to accept Bitcoin, you need to, it's just an encouragement. A pupusa lady that doesn't have a phone. She's not going to jail because she's not accepting Bitcoin, from my understanding. It's encouraging interoperability where you need to plug into this open monetary system and speak the language. So we're working with the biggest banks. And I went to one of the banks and talking to them like, "Okay, how do I send money from this bank to the bank down the block?" And they're like, "You're crazy? You can't do that." I'm like, "Wait, you guys don't have the equivalent of ACH, automated clearing house or anything?" You can walk the cash over if you feel like it.

Jack Mallers: (28:38)
So we're working with the banks on making them interoperable with the system, with the merchants, with the cash points, with everyone. And it's going to flourish in the network, affects how many independent businesses and services are going to be working on the same open monetary network. So the government wanted to place a premium on the network. Is that if everyone plugs into this network, the economies of scale and network effects are going to elevate us to the promised land. And there's no better power than an open system that a government can enforce or an individual or a rap artist or an NBA basketball player. Open networks and the network effects that come with them are the most powerful thing in human history so far. So they understand that and they want to place premium that everyone plugs into this thing. And that is in essence the legal tender law and the direction the government's going to and in 81 days we plug in. We plug in, we start simply and we evolve from there, but we plug in.

Brett Messing: (29:35)
So Jack, as I understand it, the government, and correct me if I'm wrong or expound on it, is setting up $150 million fund so that I own a bar, right in wherever, the capital city. I really don't want to deal with a Bitcoin. I can somehow check a box on something and you come in, you want to buy a beer with Bitcoin, I'm almost instantaneously swapping my Bitcoin to this government fund, they're giving me us dollars. So it's all the same to me. Did I describe that properly? And that sounds like a pretty complex undertaking to implement that. Is it? Or is it not?

Jack Mallers: (30:22)
No, because well, yes, it is complex to implement, but no in the sense that it's already implemented. Because if you take that user story and then we go back to me sending dollars instantly received as euros, it's the same thing. It's allowing cash collateral to make Bitcoin payments, and it's allowing Bitcoin payments to be received as cash. And that's the infrastructure and the insight that we've already developed. So what the government did is hung out with me and talked about comic books and stuff and realized wow, Strike empowers the consumer to gain all the benefit of this open monetary network without giving the burden of Bitcoin the asset. If you want to long Bitcoin the asset, if you want to start a fund, go for it. But from a base minimum we now have technological infrastructure and the insight to give the experience that you show a singular open standard QR code.

Jack Mallers: (31:18)
Millions of apps can scan it. And when they do and the money comes in, you get dollars. That's an amazing experience. That's an irreversible payment, it's an open system. It was free to process. How much was the interchange on that? It's an open network. There's no interchange. There's no VISA sitting over my shoulder charging me for clearance. It was free. It's a beautiful thing. So the government took that concept and said, "Wait, hold on a second." If we want to be long Bitcoin as a government, we can provide the liquidity. We're not going to make Binance come to this country or Jack should stem the liquidity, let's take that concept and infrastructure and plug it into our reserves.

Jack Mallers: (31:57)
And it was novel and fascinating and it was great insight on their part, and that's what it is. But it's the same idea of sending dollars that goes into Bitcoin that comes out as euros. So same thing is I'm selling pupusas, I hit $20 and boom, out comes this Lightning Network QR code. Millions of apps can scan it. If you're super privacy oriented, you could build your own wallet that has a pink privacy logo on it for yourself. You scan it, no matter how the money comes in, it converts, dispatches the dollars to the merchant who's selling pupusas, and then the Bitcoin goes to the reserves of the country. And that's the idea and the concept and the design.

Brett Messing: (32:39)
All right Jack. So I'm going to give you an opportunity to break some news here with us. I've got a couple of questions. So I read somewhere that El Salvador's monetary authority, which by the way I have no idea what they do. If they're on the US dollar and the Bitcoin, they have meetings, I don't know what they talk about. They seem to have no power. But anyway, that they have $3 billion in reserves. Why don't they buy some Bitcoin, right? A $300 million slug of Bitcoin. Are they going to, should we try to convince the president? Can we DM, if you DM him right now and tell him, "Hey man, buy some Bitcoin," you can hook him up with Ross Stevens and you can buy it NYDIG or whatever. Anything to share on that. And before you answer, remember there's no insider trading in Bitcoin.

Jack Mallers: (33:27)
Yeah. Listen, I didn't write the bill. I talked with the government and the president writes and signs the bill. That's how the bill works. I'm not speaking on behalf of the government. If they want to talk about their reserves plans they should. I can say this though, and I would advise this if I were asked. I wouldn't be public about my reserve plans until I was confident I had acquired what I wanted to acquire. I don't want the market pricing and anything. So that would be the advice I would give. I wouldn't make my reserve plans public and known. It's a disadvantage unless it becomes an advantage, which maybe you're Michael Saylor and you buy a billion dollars first and then you announce it. So that would be my advice if I were asked to give advice, but I'm not the president, and so I'm not going to speak on his behalf.

Brett Messing: (34:23)
All right. Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see on that one. So where are you traveling to next? I think I'm going to want to get in touch with Google's location tracker for Jack Maller because I know there'll be something interesting going on there. Obviously there have been a bunch of legislators in various nations in Central and South America who have indicated they want to do likewise. I'm going to date myself, but I think a lot of our audience will remember. When I was a kid there was this thing called schoolhouse rock and it was this tune about, I'm a bill, I'm only a bill. I'm sitting here on Capitol Hill about... The challenges of a bill getting passed to law. There are certain times even in US history like during the John's administration, where you have a democratic president with a super majority in Congress, you can pretty much bang things through, which is what we had in El Salvador. Not the case in most nations, generally not the case in the United States. Any insights? I imagine people were reaching out to you in other countries.

Jack Mallers: (35:26)
Yeah. Listen, I actually told my team the following Monday after the announcement like, "This is no mistake. This is not an accident. This is not a one-off event. This is not something to be celebrated and forgotten about for us as a company. This is what we do." This is our mission statement of enabling economic freedom and economic empowerment and we do that through open monetary networks that are Bitcoin and Lightning providing a tremendous experience on top of them. So we've enabled that for Russell Okung, as an NFL player, we're talking to the NFL, we're talking to NASCAR, we did that with the Indy 500 folks, and we're talking to more countries.

Jack Mallers: (36:03)
It's just what we do, and so we're going to continue to do what we do. We're going to continue to be the best at what we do. So yeah, blanketed answer is absolutely there's more to come because I have an economically empowered all 8 billion people yet, and so this is a tremendous milestone, I'm super proud of everyone that was part of it and the small role I played. But no, we keep going. We keep going. We have a mission statement and it's far from finished.

Brett Messing: (36:28)
So if I was a bookie, I just said, betting odds on what country was going to be next. So I would make the odds around other dollarized nations like Panama, Ecuador, just curious, what nation would you... What would be your favorite?

Jack Mallers: (36:44)
Well, you're a smart guy man. So maybe you should give yourself a little bit more credit. But I don't know. I don't know. Keep in mind this was a tremendously long journey that I was on. Well, I guess both. It was very short, in that the last 90 days felt like it was yesterday. But it was long and like 90 individual days ticked off the calendar. So where are we 90 days from now? I'm not sure. I'm extremely inspired and enthused by the reaction that a lot of the developing world, Central America, Latin America, and just globally, I think this announcement was received fantastically. It wasn't clear at the time, such a geopolitical announcement from a 27 year old in a hoodie. But I'm fired up and I'm ready to get to work. And we'll see. I carry no bias. I'm willing to help anybody, whether you're a pupusa salesman or a president of a country. We've got tools for you.

Brett Messing: (37:41)
Well I have one more question. I'm going to let John ask a few. So you mentioned that you facilitated an NFL player getting paid in Bitcoin. We'd love to pay our employees in Bitcoin. Is that something you could help us with? Where is that from a rollout standpoint? Was that a one-off thing? Or is it ready to be productized or institutionalized? Could we do that in other words? Is that something we could do together?

Jack Mallers: (38:08)
Yeah. So this has been recorded on, what is it? Thursday, June 17th. So this time next week I will have made a big announcement that should inform you more on the answer, but absolutely. And in fact the product is designed to be in the hands of the consumer. It's a direct deposit product where the consumer can actually decide what percentage of their paycheck is automatic converted in store to Bitcoin for them. So I think that if you have capital that isn't working capital, that isn't capital required for your basic functions of living, it is fact that you can't store it in cash. So what are your options? And if you think about the Federal Reserve or anyone in debt, anyone in debt has two options typically, unless you're the federal reserve. Your options are one, pay it back like an honest man, or two, default on it and admit that you made a mistake.

Jack Mallers: (39:03)
The third if you're the Federal Reserve is to just keep printing money and print assets out of reach. So that by definition has to happen. So you should store your wealth in an asset that's designed to appreciate against that environment. And Bitcoin I'm selecting fighters in a video game. It's like a cheat code. So I think every consumer, whether you're an NFL player, whether you work at Salt should be able to go into an application and slide what percentage of their direct deposit and their paycheck and their wage of living is allocated to an asset that acts in their best interest. So we'll wait for the announcement next week.

Brett Messing: (39:40)
All right. If I was in a different mood I'd really hammer you on it and tell you that we'd embargo this and make news together. But given all the good work you've done on we're not going to put that pressure on you. John, you want to ask a few questions to Jack before we let him get back to it?

John Darsie: (39:57)
Yeah. Obviously a country like El Salvador and other countries in LATAM and around the world, the reason they go to a dollar peg or they use the dollar as their currency is because there's a complete loss in confidence in the local currency. So in El Salvador obviously the big challenge is going to be to convince the El Salvadorian people that Bitcoin or using the Bitcoin network or remittance for internal payment network should engender confidence. Something like 70% of El Salvadorians, I think I saw the stat, don't have a bank account. Less than half have access to the internet.

John Darsie: (40:32)
How far along, I know it's very early since you guys made the announcement, but are you and what are the indications are about how the El Salvadorian people are receiving this announcement and how many of them are planning to use it? I know the government has set up some referral programs and things like that to get people on the network. And how much do you think it could incentivize the growth of the El Salvadorian economy and society to more people to have cell phones, more access to the internet, things like that?

Jack Mallers: (40:58)
Yeah. Well, let's say we solve or drastically improve the remittance scenario in El Salvador, we're talking about improving the country's GDP by one to 5%. So that's very material. So I think it's going to do tremendous things almost immediately to the country outside of what it's already done. The amount of jobs created, amount of investment that's coming into the country is fantastic. Reception of the people. Listen, politics is very complicated and I'm no politician, that's the job of the president to manage expectations and the lives of its citizens. I think the only thing that I'm confident in as someone who builds software and someone who builds experiences for consumers is that time cures all and we just have coded right.

Jack Mallers: (41:40)
So I have nothing but confidence in our ability to deliver economic inclusivity and financial freedom to the people of El Salvador, improve on those qualities, and give financial access to the 70 plus percent that don't have it, and to the 30% that do may have it drastically improved in its quality. So there's no doubt in my mind, I have ultimate confidence and I know the president will give access to information and transparency to relieve a lot of the stress and confusion that may be caused by politics or politics and ultimately time is the truth teller.

John Darsie: (42:17)
Yeah. There was a lot written in the wake of El Salvador's announcement and the passage of the bill around what are the global implications from a legal standpoint of a country making Bitcoin legal tender. Does it have to be recognized differently now in countries that El Salvador trades with or conducts business with, what in your view are the implications, both literal implications about how Bitcoin has to be treated now internationally and what it does around the world to encourage other countries to potentially adopt similar types of models.

Jack Mallers: (42:49)
Yeah. So for the legal implications, I've seen some interesting threads around how the World Bank now has to accept Bitcoin as El Salvador's made it legal tender. I'm more curious than a participant to see how that unfolds. The way I view it is we are in unprecedented environment for macro economics right now. The monetary expansion happening at all central banks and then particularly the Federal Reserve should scare everyone, no matter if you're in New York, Chicago, or El Salvador. And you see a country that opts out that plugs into hope, plugs into an open network, plugs into a monetary policy that can not be co-opted by any individual that doesn't have a CEO and that's protected by software that's incorruptible, and that's defended by a distributed network. And that is a very inspiring thing to see and to witness and to understand that there are other options.

Jack Mallers: (43:47)
In fact, there's an option that's engineered to fix this exact problem. So I think now every single country in the world, especially those that are dollarized, especially those that are developing, but no matter who you are, you have to start to entertain the concept that Bitcoin has given financial inclusion, basic human freedoms and hope and solved the long outdated problem of subscribing to a monetary policy that can not be changed, that is fixed, set in stone. An asset that supplies cap and that achieves ultimate scarcity, and a country has done that and plugged into that and sees a better world with that. And I think that's going to kick off what I hope to be a new epoch for humanity. I think we have a better world with Bitcoin [inaudible 00:44:32] and Bitcoin's engineered to solve these problems and a lot of confidence it's going to fix it.

John Darsie: (44:37)
So last question before we let you go. You talked earlier about how you've built technology. The Lightning Network has been built, Strike has been built to be a technology that operates and solves problems irrespective of the price of Bitcoin, or whether somebody embraces Bitcoin as a currency or a store of value or whatever they perceive it as. But you're a fan of Bitcoin, Brett is definitely a fan of Bitcoin. I'm a fan of Bitcoin. But Bitcoin is volatile. If I was getting paid from SkyBridge or Salt two months ago in Bitcoin I would have been a lot happier than I would be today having that money having halved in value.

John Darsie: (45:13)
Do you think Bitcoin as an asset is on a path? And we talk about this a lot, Brett and I about volatility is your friend really with Bitcoin because that's what's created so much price appreciation, is most of the volatility has been to the upside. But do you think Bitcoin is on a path to being less volatile to being perceived as more of a currency that people in El Salvador or elsewhere might be able to have more confidence in it long-term that it will be somewhat more stable?

Jack Mallers: (45:40)
Yes, of course. Bitcoin's volatility metrics are going down by the day. They always have been as it's maturing as an asset and maturing in its participants, maturing in those who subscribe to it and hold it, maturing in its volatility characteristics, and it will continue to do so. However, I still think there's a tremendous amount of volatility to the upside, which then implies some short-term volatility to the downside. Markets act on nobody's behalf, markets are their own beast and their own freak of nature.

Jack Mallers: (46:12)
So I don't think we're near close what is... Bitcoin is around a trillion dollar asset. Considering how the world traditionally stores wealth, there's a lot more to go to the upside. So I still think that we're relatively early. So I wouldn't price out any volatility for these next market cycles. I think it's got to go up a lot, which infers it'll go down a little and then continue. But I mean, you can look at all the metrics you want and these things maturing tremendously fast considering it started a little over a decade ago, it's incredible.

Brett Messing: (46:49)
Jack, [inaudible 00:46:50] One last question before we wrap John. Jack, what do you believe is that the number of people in the world that own Bitcoin and how do you calculate that number? What are your data inputs?

Jack Mallers: (47:05)
Yeah, what's a Bitcoin user. That's the long dated question. Gosh, I wouldn't have any clue for owning Bitcoin. I would associate with being long the asset. I think someone with a Coinbase account that owns Bitcoin on the platform is an owner of the asset. I think yeah, there's a lot of nuance in that question and a lot of context needs to be provided to give an accurate answer. But I guess a lot and if it's people that literally hold [inaudible 00:47:36] and private keys, lesser then, but if it's people that are subscribed to funds and cash-settled derivative products and are on platforms like Coinbase and Robin Hood, then a lot. But I know the number keeps going up into the right, so that's why I'm a fan.

Brett Messing: (47:50)
Right. Well that seems like a good place to end John. I hope you're great.

John Darsie: (47:53)
Yeah, absolutely. Jack, we'd love to have you-

Brett Messing: (47:56)
[crosstalk 00:47:56] got better than up into the right.

John Darsie: (47:57)
Yeah, up into the right is fantastic. But Jack, it's a pleasure to have you on, we'd love to have you at our Salt conference this September in New York, it's going to have all the big players in the world of Bitcoin and digital assets. It's something that this all conference has evolved since it was started 12 years ago and it's going to increasingly have content and participants that are doing great things in this space. So we'd love to have you there and hope to see you down at Bitcoin Beach. That sounds like the place to be.

Jack Mallers: (48:26)
You should definitely visit Bitcoin Beach, shout out to Bitcoin Beach and all the people that have made this a reality and I'd love to come. I appreciate you both. Thanks for having me. I think you do tremendous work for the community and for the asset and let's go Bitcoin.

John Darsie: (48:40)
All right. Let's go Bitcoin. Thank you everybody for tuning into today's Salt Talk as well, and learning more about what's going on with the Lightning Network with Strike, this global evolution of Bitcoin. Just a reminder, if you missed any part of this talk or any of our previous Salt Talks, you can access them on our website. It's salt.org/talks or on our YouTube channel, which is called Salt Tube. And please spread the word about these Salt Talks. We love educating people on topics whether you're deep into Bitcoin and just learning about more in depth what's going on in El Salvador or looking to learn more about the space. Please tell your uncle that's skeptical about crypto, please send him this Salt talk. We're also on Twitter at Salt Conference is where we're most active, but we're also on LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook as well. And on behalf of Brett and the entire Salt team, this is John Darsie signing off from Salt Talks for today. We hope to see you back here again soon.

Zach Dexter: Trading Crypto | SALT Talks #225

“There’s no reason crypto has to be a partisan issue. The great irony is the more we disempower the crypto community, the more we empower the established banking incumbents who are extracting a huge deal of rent from everyday Americans.”

Zach Dexter explains LedgerX’s unique status as a digital currency futures and options exchange and clearinghouse approved by the CFTC. Dexter offers an overview of crypto’s regulatory landscape and explains why it’s incumbent upon crypto industry leaders to engage regulators in order to help shape smart and fair rules. Dexter sees crypto as crucial in upgrading traditional financial infrastructure, applying its technological rails. Dexter describes one of LedgerX’s top products, an overseas crypto perpetual swap, and offers his views around the recent Bitcoin deleveraging event, El Salvador and the future of decentralized finance (DeFi).

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Zach Dexter.jpeg

Zach Dexter

Chief Executive Officer & Co-Founder

LedgerX

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 - Intro and background

5:21 - Bitcoin regulatory landscape

8:10 - The LedgerX product and crypto advocacy

14:53 - Facilitating fair regulations

16:46 - Perpetual swaps

20:44 - Bitcoin’s deleveraging event

23:11 - El Salvador and Bitcoin as digital gold

26:05 - Decentralized finance and collaborating with competing exchanges

30:42 - Effects of crypto crackdowns in China

32:46 - Bitcoin’s status among regulators

34:49 - Politicization of Bitcoin

TRANSCRIPT

John Darcie: (00:07)
Hello everyone. And welcome back to salt talks. My name is John Darcie. I'm the managing director of salt, which is a global thought leadership form and networking platform at the intersection of finance technology and public policy. Salt talks are a digital interview series with leading investors, creators, and thinkers. And our goal on these salt talks is the same as our goal at our salt conferences, which we're excited to resume in September of 2021. This past week, we opened registration for our salt New York event, which is taking place at the brand new Javits center expansion in New York in September. So we hope you can join us there, but our goal at those events and on these talks is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future.

John Darcie: (00:54)
And if you're a regular here on salt talks, you know how keenly interested we are in the digital asset space. We're very excited to bring you the latest installment of our digital asset series with Zach Dexter. Uh, Zack is the CEO of ledger X, which is the first us regulated Bitcoin options platform. Uh, Zack developed and scaled the platform and custody system and led all technical systems, market surveillance and control aspects of the company's, uh, three-and-a-half year exchange and clearing house regulatory approval process. Uh, Zach is now leading the next phase, uh, of ledger X is expansion into perpetual products clearing for other exchanges and international services, uh, prior to returning to ledger X as CEO, uh, Zach led multiple engineering teams at mirror, which is a highly successful direct to consumer fitness brand. Uh, prior to mirror, Zach served as a CTO and co-founder at ledger X, uh, hosting today's talk is Anthony Scaramucci. Who's the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge capital, which is a global alternative investment firm. Anthony is also the chairman of salt. And with that, I'll turn it over to Anthony for the interview.

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:00)
Well, you got a super impressive career Zack. And so I want you to start there, take us back. Uh, where did you go to high school or college? Why did you end up doing this for a living?

Zach Dexter: (02:12)
Well, I'm from Charlotte, North Carolina went to UNC chapel hill and was, uh, was doing some software consulting almost straight out of college start. I'm

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:20)
Calling, I'm calling time out right now. Now I know why John Darcie's been so excited about this song.

John Darcie: (02:27)
I'm going to come out and say, I didn't even know you were Tarheels

Speaker 4: (02:31)
Zack [inaudible].

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:35)
Excuse me. Excuse me. Do we have anybody from long island that we can bring on the salt dog that can you get Billy Joel call or something like that? Jesus,

John Darcie: (02:43)
Zach, for the record I grew up in chapel hill. I grew up in chapel hill. My brother lives in Charlotte. I'm in North Carolina right now, actually. So this is fantastic. I love you even more, but go ahead.

Zach Dexter: (02:54)
Yeah, it's a great place. Great place. So I went from there to New York, it was doing software consulting for various startups and wanted to join something absolutely crazy that had like no chance at all at succeeding. And I thought, all right. Yeah, good coins arrived. This exchange in 2013 is the thing. There's no way that this is going to get approved. Uh, you know, we're, we're all going to get a big trouble. I'm I'm not, you know, but let's go for it. So, uh, joint ledger X is a co-founder and built the platform. We actually succeeded in getting the CFTC to give us, uh, not only the exchange or approval, but the, the required clearing house approvals. So we could hold Bitcoin.

Anthony Scaramucci: (03:30)
So I want to stop you for a sec, not to interrupt, but I want you to explain to our viewers and listeners what ledger X is, and then take them through that process of getting the approvals.

Zach Dexter: (03:41)
Yeah. Yeah. So we're a Bitcoin options platform. You can, you can buy calls, sell calls, buy, put, sell, puts on physical Bitcoin. You can do some futures trading. We have a next day swap product. That's kind of like spot. So any kind of Bitcoin derivative, you can trade on ledger X. In fact, we're the only place today in the United States where retail investors can trade physically settled Bitcoin options. So if you have a bunch of Bitcoin and you want to generate deals, you can sell calls on led direction. Can't do that anywhere else as a us retail investor. So

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:13)
Jack, I have to ask this question, can you buy and sell Bitcoin on an exchange in the United States? Yes. And that's Coinbase, where else can you buy it?

Zach Dexter: (04:25)
Gemini crack and FTX. U S there are a ton of platforms for spot trading. That's open and available to us investors. No problem. Easy to do, but the derivative space is much more, uh, constricted. There are very few things you can do today in Bitcoin to read, but it's in the U S as a retail investor.

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:45)
So is it fair to say that you're the only one that can do this? Or do you have competitors?

Zach Dexter: (04:50)
We don't have anyone else doing physically settled Bitcoin options right now in the U S that's w w we're the only one, which is crazy because it's 20, 21 we've been around for a few years now. It's just so tough to get those licenses.

Anthony Scaramucci: (05:03)
And so I want you to then address in your words, the regulatory landscape for Bitcoin. And I had to put a flat jacket on this morning because of the comments that Senator Elizabeth Warren was making. I had a flat jacket on and a helmet like we were heading into a, some enemy fire.

Zach Dexter: (05:22)
Yeah. I, I think there's a lot of, a lot of misunderstanding on what the regulatory landscape is. It's actually not as bad as I think it's portrayed in the media. So you've got the sec and they're regulating security, tokens, and Bitcoin ETFs. You've got the CFTC commodity futures trading commission used to be an agricultural regulator. They've gotten into crypto asset regulation, any derivative on Bitcoin, if theory in any derivative on any crypto, like a future, an option swap that falls into the CFTC bailiwick. So you've got the two financial regulators. The IRS has been chiming in with, uh, how they're going to treat crypto from a tax perspective. And we're starting to see a lot more regulatory clarity from the sec from the IRS, from some of these other federal agencies. But the CFTC has been in this game for five plus years. Now they've had a super clear regime all along. So if you want to do derivatives, they're the place to go.

Anthony Scaramucci: (06:21)
And you also have something called a clearing house and you're working with the other exchanges. Tell us what the clearing house is. And tell us, tell us why it's important to your business.

Zach Dexter: (06:32)
It clearing is, uh, it's not really well understood subject because it's so, it's so new. Uh, after 2008, we had these, these long chains of swap obligations. Still, nobody knew who owned what to whom they were like 15, 20 hops long. It was impossible to track down. What's the total escalating risk of the financial system. So regulators in Congress got together and they said, all right, we're going to have a single entity control all that risk. So every buyer, a derivatives instrument is going to directly face a central counterparty. Every seller is going to directly face a central counterparty. And every time you do a trade, we're going to break that, trade it too. So there's no concept anymore of right. Let's, let's face our counterparty directly, uh, that, that results in a system where you really can't measure the total outstanding risk in the financial system. So a clearing house is a central counterparty for derivatives trades. You have to have a clearing house if you want to offer interesting retail derivatives products. So we had to register not only the exchange, which was tough. We had to register the clearing house, which was very tough. There are very few active clearing houses in the U S those, those, uh, the clearinghouse has managed customer funds. They manage all the risks. So the regulators really have to make sure that if you're operating a clearing house, you've got your risk modeling, uh, down pat.

Anthony Scaramucci: (07:47)
Okay. So it, it sounds like you've put all of the pieces together to build an amazing business. So tell us about the products that you're going to overlay on this business. Tell us about the future of ledger X. I think I need to also disclose that early on. I was a seed round investor in the company, and so I'm very proud. He said, you're doing a great job. We're where are we going?

Zach Dexter: (08:10)
Yeah, we were today. We've got the Bitcoin options. It's a, it's a fully collateralized product. It's a little bit tough to trade, uh, because there's no leverage. So what we want to do is take the most popular derivatives product from the overseas crypto world, which is the perpetual swap. It does most of the volumes, most of the revenue, but you have to have our licenses to offer it here in the U S so we want to take that copy pasted into the U S offered on ledger X initially on Bitcoin, Ethereum, but actually on a all commodities. It's a product that has some cases for some asset classes is superior to traditional futures because you don't have to roll from expiration to expiration. There's no structural volatility. Like we solved the oil price a few months ago, uh, concurrent with exploration. So, so this is the most popular traded instrument in crypto.

Zach Dexter: (08:55)
By far, it's probably the most successful products that come out of crypto. It's not crypto itself. It's actually this perpetual swap. So all this overseas trading that we're hearing about most of that volume is taking place in the perpetual. But again, because of Dodd-Frank, you've got to have our licensing stack to offer that here. So us investors can't trade the most pocketed product from crypto. We're going to fix that problem. Then we're going to take that to all asset classes and take a direct run at the Chicago mercantile exchange and your ex or not structurally capable of offering those products.

Anthony Scaramucci: (09:28)
So explain to our listeners that are Bitcoin skeptics, crypto skeptics, et cetera, why you are not one of those people.

Zach Dexter: (09:45)
I think at this point that there's, uh, it's a new asset class it's here. And if you're, if you're a skeptic, it doesn't matter. Uh, there are enough people who are not that the asset class is here to stay. So there's no point I think in having a personal view on, you know, whether Bitcoin is good or bad, the market has decided that it's an asset class and that's pretty much the long and short of the story, but there's also this aspect that, uh, crypto introduces fundamental improvements in the financial clubbing that would not be possible if we were to rely on centralized infrastructure. What does, whether it's Bitcoin, whether it's a theory or defy, uh, the paradigm shift that's going on right now is we're taking systems that are actually terrible when you build them in a centralized manner, ACH wire, this stuff is 40 years old.

Zach Dexter: (10:39)
It barely works. It's held together by a bunch of duct tape and we're replacing it with a modern alternative using blockchains. That's actually far better from a technological perspective than the centralized alternative, which is a bunch of different institutions trying to coordinate, you know, Hey, who has my fonts? Where's the transfer in progress. All that stuff is public on the blockchain. So it's, it's just a technological revolution. It's the new rails for the financial system it's coming? No, there's not going to be as much change as I think some people think we're not going to live in a dystopian society, uh, where people are out on the street, uh, you know, there's been a nuclear war and we're know, using the lightning network to Paige, other, and Bitcoin like that. That's not where we're heading, where we're heading is regulated institutions using crypto rails to move funds around, to do trading everything we do today, but using a better technology. That's the best way to think of crypto?

Anthony Scaramucci: (11:38)
Well, you're really talking about Zack is what people describe as de-centralized finance. And so it's a reduction of the middleman. It's likely a reduction of transaction costs. Um, there's an integrity to the system. And so there's some safety Insurity, and it's almost like a direct to consumer business if I'm not saying it correctly. And so what your exchange will be is for institutions and individuals to have investments in burying cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, et cetera, but then also have options and derivatives like they do in the stock and bond market. And so, so why should we be super excited about ledger X?

Zach Dexter: (12:22)
Well, there's never been a, there's never been a regulated version of what's going on at the overseas, uh, crypto derivatives markets. And actually those markets in many cases are more liquid, more efficient, more fun to trade in. They're better for institutions, better for retail. Uh, they have, they have so much liquidity at, at 3:00 AM because they're open 24 7. The products are tradable 24, 7 what's going on overseas is you've got a totally unregulated, but in many cases, better version of the financial markets that we have here, what we're doing is putting our us regulatory wrapper on that same technology. So you're going to have the same kind of quality, uh, in terms of execution quality in terms of liquidity, in terms of asset class choice that you have overseas, but in the highly regulated jurisdictions, that's pretty much it.

Anthony Scaramucci: (13:12)
And when we talk about decentralized finance ledger, X itself is a centralization node. If you want to say centralization network. So explain to us how ledger X fits into that mosaic.

Zach Dexter: (13:27)
Yeah, we're, we're totally centralized today, right? So we're doing centralized to relatives. You know, you have to send us money as, as collateral, post that to the clearing house in order to sell a call or order to buy a put, you've got to post the premiums and a wire transfer to the clearing house, but long-term, I think what we're going to do it, and we've already started working on this is, is we're going to look to run our platform on defy rails. So we're going to take our regulatory wrapper, take our controls, the oversight, and we're going to use [inaudible] technology, uh, to run the exchange, to run the clearinghouse. And it's actually a more efficient way to do things. So it we'll be talking about crypto and whether it's good or bad are here to stay. I think the way to look at it is all of these centralized institutions today, whether it's, you know, banks, even central banks, in some cases, uh, exchanges, clearing houses, brokers, all of those entities are going to move towards a world where they're kind of nodes in this decentralized network. And we're going to be one of those scents. But today, you know, it's a totally centralized operation. We've got to ease into that, uh, that future vision.

Anthony Scaramucci: (14:34)
I, I have, uh, uh, a worry, it's a worry that I share with, uh, lots of people about the future of regulation here in the United States and around the world. And so tell me, uh, why I shouldn't be worried. Tell me what I should be worried about.

Zach Dexter: (14:54)
I think, um, I think a lot of the responsibility for, uh, making sure we get the right kind of regulation actually falls on the industry. And what I mean by that is it's incredible. You know, when I, when I go talk to our regulators, there's, there are very few people who are approaching us, federal regulators with good crypto ideas. Most people are trying to get around the regulatory regime entirely. Most people are trying to skirt the rules and that that's not the way you want to do things. If you want good crypto regulation, you've got to go to the regulators and say, look, here's a solid argument for why we should be allowed to use [inaudible] technology. And you know, we're going to have all these consumer protections. Uh, here is our disaster recovery plan or business continuity plan. You know, here's all the, all the paperwork you need to see. Here's what we're doing. Here's why it works. You know, please sign off on that or at least tell us where we can improve. You've got to engage. And I think that the biggest word for me, it's not that there's going to be excessive regulation. It's that the industry is going to continue to try to skirt all the, all the rules. And they're not going to be there to engage in a two-way dialogue with the regulators. That's the most dangerous thing that I think a crypto is facing right now.

Anthony Scaramucci: (16:04)
John Darcie, fellow tar heel. I know you went to Emory, but you see self as a Tario. I mean, who's kidding. Go, go ahead. Yeah. Um, and by the way, I'm talking over Darcie. I don't care, Zach, if he asks a really good question, don't say, oh, that's a really good question. Okay. Can you promise me that sec? I'm one of your investments. Okay. All right. Go ahead, doors.

John Darcie: (16:30)
As much as I want to just talk about Carolina basketball, I'm going to continue on the current topic, but, um, perpetual swaps. Could you talk a little bit more about, uh, why those exist overseas, why they're not as popular in the United States, how they work and just more of the mechanics around them?

Zach Dexter: (16:46)
Yeah. It's like a traditional future, but it's a lot more fun to trade. The reason is it's really simple, essentially. It's to leverage spot product. So everybody wants to trade crypto, right? And a lot of people want to trade it on leverage the easiest conception, the most simple conception of a leveraged crypto product is the perpetual swap. It's a future that doesn't have an expiration date. So there's no, you know, it's, Hey, it's March 28th. Futures are gonna roll off. You've got a leg into another future. And the following month, uh, you gotta have a trading team for that. It's a pain in the pipe. So essentially it's just a way to give leverage spot exposure. It's super simple. Uh, the other aspect of the perpetual future that I think is not as well understood by the public at this point is the, uh, the margin model behind it.

Zach Dexter: (17:32)
So it turns out that overseas, the way these things trade and the way their margin, you get liquidated super fast. If your position goes underwater here in the U S all of the margin lending at the brokers and the clearing house, most of it is recourse lending. So people can come at your, if you can't, you know, come through on your, on your margin obligations at your broker, with the clearing house oversees, uh, the, the way things work. If you go underwater, you get liquidated instantly. So it's actually a lower risk to, to trade and to clear than traditional futures, traditional options. So there, there's the kind of retail facing benefit, which is you don't have to roll from exploration to exploration. There's less structural volatility for that reason. So it's, it's good to trade, but actually on the back end from the technology side, the clearing side from the margin side for the regulated entities are unregulated entities managing this stuff. It's, it's less risky and you're, you're less likely to blow up, uh, the financial system or, you know, your, your account balance, uh, in some cases, or, you know, the exchange you're trading at, if all they're doing is non-recourse, uh, margin perpetuals, which is super un-intuitive. And you've got to dig into the March model, see why that's the case, but, but actually it's a better product for both the trading in the margin side.

John Darcie: (18:50)
What levels of leverage are available internationally? You hear a lot of stories about just crazy wild west types of leverage that are available in places like Asia. And how does that compare to leverage is available in crypto markets in the United

Zach Dexter: (19:03)
Way? Yeah, I mean, effectively, there's, there's really at scale. It can only do like three to five X even internationally. There, there is a hundred X leverage available, but it's for like a $400 position and, you know, a hundred X leverage. The second, the market moves, you get liquidated and, you know, you lose whatever, uh, $5 plus the liquidation fee, or maybe there's a violent move and you lose all of it, but you only risk 400 bucks. Right. So, so who cares? Right? So I think here typically the initial margin requirements on CME for trading are like, you know, 10 to 30% or some variation margin. Uh, you, you get a message and it's like, Hey, give me some more margin. You got set a wire transfer. It's just so inefficient overseas, you get liquidated fast and you gotta, you gotta post that variation margin with stable coins really, really fast. So it's a more efficient market, the safer market, the longer you have an underwater position, outstanding, like over here at CME, you can have an underwater position overnight, you know, it's not good. Um, the more risk there is for the system. So actually in terms of regulation, we should be looking at some of the improvements that the, uh, the overseas market has made in terms of the margining systems. Uh, and in terms of the liquidation systems that they're using, it's, it's an incredible stuff.

John Darcie: (20:15)
So obviously Bitcoin and several, several other cryptocurrencies just experienced real significant drawdowns in the last month, month and a half. A lot of talk has been about how much leverage is in the system and how much of that was an unwinding of leverage and liquidation of different positions that people took in your view and your study of crypto markets in a Bitcoin, how much of that was a de-leveraging event and where do you see Bitcoin now in terms of the health, uh, you know, in terms of how much leverage is in the system?

Zach Dexter: (20:45)
Yeah, there was a ton of leverage defy, a lot of people that wrapping their Bitcoins and deposits say they have a direct Bitcoin and putting them on Ave and then taking loans out against that and borrowing tether and pausing that and taking more loans out there, leveraging over and over again. But actually they basically think about that crash was that was a VAR shock, like a shock to the system that we haven't really experienced in traditional financial markets. I mean, has there been a case where, how many cases can you name where there's been like a 30 to 6% across the board draw down in commodities and the system survived, you know, like in 24 to 48 hours, that's, that's incredible. What actually happened is everybody got liquidated on defy, but the system survived. And many of these protocols, like I've a perpetual protocol. A lot of them didn't even dig into their default fund.

Zach Dexter: (21:31)
They didn't even have to go to their backstop. Everybody got liquidated and there was a buyer for all the liquidated positions in many cases, despite the size of the shock. So it was this really interesting dynamic where all the centralized exchanges like went down, you know, the price started tanking, uh, all the centralized exchanges except for, uh, directs of course, were down. Um, I think, you know, FTX might've been up, uh, as they usually are, but most of these guys never goes down. There you go. But, but most of these guys tanked right. And defy did not defy was online, which was extremely interesting. And not only were they online, cause it's decentralized, they didn't dig into their reserve fund. If you had that kind of shock in the traditional markets, you would have blown out the clearing house default fund, you would have mutualized the loss. So there's something to be, to be learned actually from, from the volatility. It's, it's not always a bad

John Darcie: (22:23)
Thing. Right. You know, it was a stress test that the defy, uh, space pass. And I, that's a great point that you make that it's very positive to see it survive that type of volatility and emerge, uh, still in a healthy state. So we were talking before we went live about El Salvador. So recently the president of El Salvador threw his weight behind Bitcoin. He introduced a bill into the legislature there in El Salvador, um, to make Bitcoin legal tender. It passed with a super majority. It looks like Bitcoin is going to be legal tender in El Salvador. What do you think that news does? Obviously, El Salvador is a small country. It has a, I think it's 103rd and global nominal GDP, but what do you think that move is going to have? Uh, what type of effect it's going to have maybe a domino effect around the world and what are the implications of that move in Europe?

Zach Dexter: (23:11)
Yeah, the question is, is it the micro set strategy by, you know, where there's like one buy and then there aren't a lot of other buys or is it the start to a cascading? You know, if by event for, for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, I have no idea, but I will say that there's a decent chance in my opinion, that this thing overtakes gold, because it is a better gold in many ways. And I think, I think it does go, you know, it does go to the gold market cap maybe beyond, uh, it's, it's, it's more fungible. It's easier to send, you can use it as collateral, like at ledger X, we're going to allow people to post Bitcoin as collateral for other types of derivatives transactions. You can't really ship us a gold bar. We're like, Hey, you know, Zach, let me ship you like 10 gold bars to like cover my oil trade.

Zach Dexter: (23:56)
Like, how are you going to do that? That's, that's actually a tough one of the problems with the gold. Um, you can send Bitcoin like this. So it's, it's a more useful gold. It's a better gold from that perspective, you should expect that, you know, to the extent that it continues to gain legitimacy everyday it's alive. It does that. Uh, there's a higher probability that central banks, sovereign wealth funds, you know, treasuries will, will start to adopt this as a reserve asset. So it, I actually think it's not the micro strategy by, I think it's, it's more of a, a star to a cascading event. It's going to be a trickle and then probably turn into a flood. And, you know, the thing we'll probably, we'll probably replace gold in the end. So simple as that.

Anthony Scaramucci: (24:35)
And I want to interrupt the volatility though. You're not worried about the volatility. Gold is not as volatile as Bitcoin.

Zach Dexter: (24:43)
I think it's just due to how young Bitcoin is. I mean, gold as a reserve asset has been around for thousands of years and Bitcoin, uh, you know, a dozen or so. So I think that that gets smoothed out. And the reason is, you know, I think most of volatility is going to shift to some of the, uh, some of the stuff further out on the risk curve, like, like defy, you know, it's going to show up in Solano, it's going to show up in a theory of, it's going to show up in the ERC 20 tokens that are doing a lot of the lending. Uh, that's where the volatility is going to shift because Bitcoin has, is, has started to say, all right, here's my purpose. I'm digital gold, right? If they're even starting to say, here's my purpose sign, the best smart contract platforms salon is saying, well, I'm a, I actually have a competing smart contract platform as XYZ advantages. So you're starting to see a divergence of crypto. And I think you're there. They're going to be less correlated over time and you'll see a lot of volatility and stuff out on the risk curve, but in Bitcoin, you know, it's probably going to probably going to decrease over time.

John Darcie: (25:42)
Do you think ledger X has a path to, and you've already gotten there with some of the licenses that you guys have, uh, in terms of the exchange that you operate, do you think you're sort of a happy medium between full on defy, where you have all these wrapped, uh, you know, cryptocurrencies wrap stocks, wrapped commodities, um, you know, are you guys sort of a bridge to a fully decentralized financial system in the United States? Or how do you view yourself, uh, relative to other pure [inaudible]?

Zach Dexter: (26:08)
Yeah, I don't think we're going to have a truly fully decentralized financial system. I think we're going to have a defy rails, but there's always gonna be a need for, you know, transferring your assets to your beneficiaries when you die. Right. There's always going to be a need for recovering your private keys. If something happens to you, or if you lose them or your house, you know, experience the house, fire, like basic stuff like this, it doesn't work right now and define that's a huge problem. So, you know, when people are thinking about whether the financial system is going to be decentralized, like step back a minute, we've been at this massive bull market for financial intermediaries, like whatever a hundred years. And they're not just going to go away overnight because they actually do serve a purpose in many cases. I mean, in a lot of, a lot of cases, they're just extracting rent.

Zach Dexter: (26:54)
Uh, but in other cases, they're helping consumers, you know, recover their assets. Um, and, and you don't want to turn the, the economy into like a bearer bond economy. And, you know, if your house gets burned down, if you die and it all disappeared. So you've got to have a way to inject these third-party services onto the defy rails. And those third-party services are going to be banks. They're going to be, you know, the backup key for your wallet. Uh, JP Morgan is probably going to come in there and help you transfer your, your assets, your beneficiaries, even if this stuff does take over. So I think the financial intermediary stick around, but they do different things and same with us. So we're going to be there as an exchange as a clearing house. I don't think those regulatory conceptions are going away, but actually from a tech, a technology perspective, those two things work better in defined. So the defined implementation of a bank implementation of a clearing house is better strictly better than the centralized implementation, but there's still that, you know, customer support aspect, right? So it's not going to be everybody for themselves. Pull out your ledger, nano and put all your wealth on there. I don't think that's where this

John Darcie: (28:00)
Right. Why have you guys made the strategic decision to let competing exchanges work with your platform as opposed to purely trying to pump the ledger X extreme?

Zach Dexter: (28:11)
Yeah, I mean, it's really simple for 30 years now, people have been trying to compete with the established exchanges in the U S and everybody fails. Everyone's like, Hey, I've got a do product. I've been enlisted. Uh, it's, it's some exotic product. Uh, and, and the traditional guys are not going to be able to adapt it. Of course they will. You know, they have a huge regulatory mode. They have a lot of market power. They're going to list anything you live. So you have to, you have to come at the competitive landscape in the U S and derivatives from the clearing angle. If you, if you go there with a new product, you try to list it on an exchange. You're going to get run over every time. So what are you got to do is what the big boys do. You got to build up a large network of exchanges that work with your clearinghouse and offset the collateral requirements for trading on any of those exchanges with positions on any of the other exchanges it's called cross-market basically they'd be used to trade any product, you know, instead of posting 20% initial margin, if you're on exchange ex and that exchange is clearing through ledger X, you can use your positions on exchange, Y which is also clearing through by directs and don't, you don't suppose that additional markets, so it's more capital efficient to trade.

Zach Dexter: (29:14)
No one has successfully set up that community of exchanges that are working together to give the traders a, the benefit of a lower initial margin requirements. So that's a, that's a technical thing it's in the weeds, but that's why no one has succeeded in competing with the big established players in the U S for such a long time. We're now clearing for four exchanges, which is crazy to me, you know, a year ago, we were clear for just our own exchange who since signed up three others. Um, it's, it's a big deal because no one has done that. Uh, really since the demutualization is of, of CBOs, as far as I can tell,

John Darcie: (29:49)
Right. And geographically, you know, there's a lot of concentration of, you know, Bitcoin and crypto trading in Asia, for example, definitely outside the United States. You have exchanges like FTX, like Binance, uh, plenty of other examples that are based in Asia, because they've been able to operate more freely. Um, but now you see China cracking down on Bitcoin, basically lifting all mining out of the country. In addition to banning the use of cryptocurrencies for exchange or investment in China, um, you have India that's mulling over how they're going to regulate Bitcoin, even though they've now said it's not going to be a full-on ban. Do you see the balance of power as it relates to crypto trading, crypto mining, moving westward, uh, to places like the United States, especially as the CFTC and sec, start to get more comfortable with certain elements of, you know, defy and crypto.

Zach Dexter: (30:42)
Yeah. I call it the regulatory flipping. I think it's ongoing right now. A lot of the exchanges that are, uh, that were operating out of jurisdictions in Asia, Asia are seeing those jurisdictions start to clamp down and they're saying, Hey, you know, where do I go? And my answer is you gotta register, like go to the regulator. You fill out the paperwork. It's actually not that bad. It just takes awhile for them to review your application and make sure you're doing all the right stuff, which you should probably be doing anyway. Um, and say, look, Hey, you know, can you please accelerate this? We're we're trying to get to market. It's not a bad process. That's my message to the industry of crypto wants to succeed. We have to work with the regulators, not work against them. You don't want to be antagonistic and say, Hey, can I have an exemption from all the laws that apply to everyone else?

Zach Dexter: (31:27)
They're not going to give that to you. So you've got to be proactive. And I think we see more and more of that, or more people registering, applying for licenses. You know, it's, it's a good thing in general because the more engagement there is, the, the more two-sided dialogue there is, the regulators could figure out, okay, this is what's safe. This is, what's not, here's, who's legit versus not. And things start to move faster and the whole thing becomes better lubricated. So I think you do see people moving into, uh, more respectful jurisdictions over time. It's as simple as that, I think that all plays out over the next 12 to 18 months.

John Darcie: (31:59)
So as Anthony mentioned, our sort of house view is that the biggest threat to Bitcoin and crypto is always going to be regulation. You know, you might not be able to completely stop Bitcoin. But if, if the United States, for example, decided to come down with heavy handed regulation, whether it be taxation or an outright ban or whatever, it may be, obviously it would, it would have a detrimental impact to the momentum that, that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have. But do you think that that Bitcoin specifically and other cryptocurrencies to a certain extent have released, uh, have reached a point of regulatory capture in the United States, whereby you have pensions endowments, wealth management companies, uh, corporate balance own this asset to the point where they almost face no choice, but to regulate it in a constructive way?

Zach Dexter: (32:46)
No, I, I don't think it's regulatory capture. In fact, I can tell you, it's not because our regulators still give us to give us a, uh, an appropriately tough time, you know, whenever we want to do something new. So I think that's a good thing. It's healthy, but it's definitely not captured though. So my view is the biggest threat to Bitcoin is, is not regulation. It's Bitcoin itself. Like how do you construct the narrative? What good is this doing for the world? Why is it better than the fed system? You know, what are the guard rails that consumers actually need? Because consumers, you know, they do need guard rails. You don't want to be holding your private keys. You don't want to live in a world where everybody has no recourse, no one has any recourse that they lose their assets. Uh, and they've got their little hardware wallet.

Zach Dexter: (33:25)
They lose it, that's it. You know, now, now their life savings are gone. That's not a good thing. So there, there's a reasonable way to engage with regulators. It's important that people start doing that. And the U S people are trying to file for no action relief on, on every regulation in the book it's not productive. So my message to the industry would be get out there, start talking to the regulators and start applying for licenses. It's, it's a totally reasonable process, and it will become more reasonable. The more you do it. So Olympic point is the greatest threat to us. Yeah.

John Darcie: (33:55)
Elizabeth Warren, who's obviously been a tough cop when it comes to financial regulation has recently come out with the most aggressive words yet that she's had about cryptocurrencies basically stating her intent to root them out of the U S financial system. At the same time, she's a big critic of wall street and a big banks, which, uh, I would say a lot of Bitcoiners think that Bitcoin presents a compelling alternative to the traditional banking system. How do you also, she also hides

Anthony Scaramucci: (34:22)
Behind her staff when she departs or boards or the planes from a private plane, that's fine. Keep going, Joe.

John Darcie: (34:31)
Right. But how do you, uh, view, you know, sort of the political politicization of Bitcoin, are you worried at all about this becoming a, you know, perceived right versus left type of issue, or what message would you have for Elizabeth Warren if she was tuning into the salt talk, which I can guarantee you, she is not,

Zach Dexter: (34:49)
Well, I am definitely worried about it becoming a partisan issue. I think that would be a huge mess, and there's no reason to have to become a partisan issue because it's just a new technology. And this technology has as you know, properties that are arguably not as environmentally unfriendly as has been, has been portrayed. So I totally disagree on, on that part. You know, I think it's, it's not burning up the world's carbon resources in the way that, uh, people have detected. Um, and in addition, the great irony here is the more we disempower the crypto community, the more we empower the established banking incumbents, and those incumbents are extracting a huge deal of rent from everyday Americans through overdraft fees, through wire transfer fees, you know, ACH fees, fees for this fees for that. And you know, I'm going on Ave and I'm taking out a loan and tether or USB-C for, for whatever 3%.

Zach Dexter: (35:45)
And no one is, uh, banging down the door, no loan charts of banging down the door, trying to repossess my house. But if you did that in the traditional financial system, I guarantee you all you will be dealing with, uh, are, are regulated loan sharks. So you've gotta be really careful because you've got this new empowering technology. And to the extent that you try to overregulate that you're actually going to end up creating a huge moat for the established incumbents. And so I look at that criticism, you know, in some ways, and I'm, and I'm thinking, you know, there's only one way that you can get on board with, uh, with over-regulating crypto. And that's, if you're trying to preserve the, you know, monopoly oligopoly that these established incumbents have on financial services, that's not a good thing for the American people, right? So there's a happy medium here. Uh, the, the extremes are not going to give us the answer on either side are not going to give us any good answers here.

John Darcie: (36:41)
Right? Well, Zach, it's been a pleasure to have you on salt talks. Anthony have a final word for Zach before we let them go.

Anthony Scaramucci: (36:47)
No, we're super excited about your business. Zach wish you the best of luck. We'll see you at our conference in September, and I like your optimistic view of where things are going. We, we, we agree. All right. Thanks a lot guys.

John Darcie: (37:02)
And thank you everybody for tuning into today's salt. Talk with Zach Dexter of ledger X, who a very forward thinking in terms of, uh, crypto exchanges and, and the clearing process of, uh, of all kinds of different commodity assets in the United States. Uh, just reminder if you missed any part of this talk or any of our previous salt talks, you can access them on our website on demand@sault.org backslash talks or on our YouTube channel, which is called salt too. We're also on social media at salt conference is where we're most active, but we're also on LinkedIn, Instagram, and Facebook. And please spread the word about these salt talks. Uh, we love educating people about a variety of different topics here on, on salt talks. Uh, but particularly we think exciting things are happening in the digital asset space and love bringing new people into the fold of that asset class. But on behalf of Anthony and the entire salt team, this is John Darcey signing off from salt talks for today. We hope to see you back here again soon.

Michael Greenwald: Dollar Hegemony | SALT Talks #220

“I don’t think digital currencies will be in competition. I think they’ll live alongside each other in a virtual wallet. I think each of these currencies- whether Bitcoin, Ethereum, digital yuan or digital dollar- they’ll all have different purposes.”

Michael Greenwald started his career investigating how financial institutions were used to facilitate the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Greenwald discusses the US Dollar as a key component in the United States national security efforts while preaching the importance of smart and targeted sanctions using the USD. China’s overtaking the USD as the global reserve currency has been incorrectly predicted for years- the biggest threat to USD’s primacy is complacency from US leaders, Greenwald warns. He sees the creation of a digital US Dollar as an important innovation in order to maintain the America’s leading role in the global financial order. Greenwald does not see the rise of digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum as threats to fiat currency, rather he thinks they will all find their different purposes and will coexist alongside other currencies in a digital wallet.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Michael Greenwald.jpeg

Michael Greenwald

Director

Tiedemann Advisors

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 - Intro

3:22 - Beginning career investigating 9/11 attacks

6:01 - Importance of the dollar as the global reserve currency

11:46 - Future of digital currencies

15:02 - China’s banning of Bitcoin

17:10 - Cryptocurrency’s use in illicit finance

20:11 - China’s digital yuan project and a potential digital dollar

25:21 - Intersection of the art market, digital currencies and NFTs

28:07 - Impact of digital central bank digital currencies

30:17 - Post-pandemic investigations and holding China accountable

32:08 - Pandemic’s long-term impact on global trade

34:34 - China, Taiwan and US policy

37:09 - Growing Middle East-China relationship

39:43 - Europe-China relationship

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darcie: (00:07)
Hello everyone. And welcome back to salt talks. My name is John Darcie. I'm the managing director of salt, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance technology and public policy. Salt talks are a digital interview series that we started in 2020 with leading investors, creators and thinkers. In our goal on these salt talks to the same as our goal at our salt conferences, which we're excited to resume here in September of 2021 in our home city of New York. But that's to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And we're very excited today to welcome Michael Greenwald onto salt talks. Uh, if you've tuned into our salt Bitcoin review, we had him on a few weeks ago to look forward to going further into depth on different topics related to his expertise around geopolitics, the dollar, as well as things that are going on in the art market, uh, and just general global economics.

John Darcie: (01:04)
But, uh, Michael today is a director at Tiedemann advisors, which is a multifamily office with over 22 billion in assets, under management. And he's also the director for digital asset education at Tiedemann and digital assets have been, uh, uh, a continued focus for him as he's grown out his role at Tiedemann. Um, and in general, in the marketplace prior to joining Tetum and Michael serve in the U S treasury department in two presidential administrations and under three treasury secretaries most recently, uh, within treasury, he was the first us treasury ad Tasha to Qatar and Kuwait acting as the principal liaison to the banking sector in those countries, they previously held counter-terrorism and intelligence roles, uh, requiring travel to 20 different countries as part of his, uh, job there at treasury. Uh, he served on the U S treasury team that crafted sanctions against Russia, against ISIS, as well as against Al-Qaida at Tetum.

John Darcie: (01:58)
And he also leads their business development efforts in the middle east. So he's a very much an expert on everything in the Gulf, which we'll get to as well during this conversation. Michael, as I mentioned as an expert on the global economy on digital currencies and on the contemporary art market, which we'll also touch on later, and he's a deputy director at the trilateral commission and a fellow at the Atlantic council and Harvard Kennedy schools, bell Belfer center for science and international affairs, uh, where he published over has published over 50 articles already, which I would highly recommend you go over to the Belfer center website and read a lot of his writings there in 2020, he published a report in the Atlantic council called the future of the U S dollar weaponizing, the U S financial system he's been featured in Barron's the financial times and on CNBC and has lectured at Harvard Stanford and the council on foreign relations.

John Darcie: (02:48)
His philanthropic work has included serving as chair of the U S Holocaust Memorial museum and next generation board. And he holds a JD and a master's from Boston university and a bachelor's degree in history from George Washington university. Today. He lives in beautiful Palm beach, Florida, Michael, welcome to salt talks. We're looking forward to diving into it with you, but before we get into a lot of these topics that you have such deep expertise on, we'd love to hear in your words more about your experience there at treasury and just the arc of your educational career and professional career that led you to [inaudible]. Sure.

Michael Greenwald: (03:22)
Thank you, John. And thank you so much SALT Talks for having me. It's great to be here. Uh, I started my career really interested in following the money after nine 11, understanding, uh, how Al Qaeda, uh, his fundraising efforts were working post nine 11. John looking at the nine 11 commission report, looking at why $500,000 with being moved into the United States through us banks. What happened after nine 11? How our authorities got stronger, how we use the dollar, not just with terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda, but then to Iran, to Russia, and now, uh, towards China and now looking at where we are with digital currencies. So I had the awesome responsibility of working with an incredible team at treasury. Uh, it was truly a collaborative team effort, uh, across the community and treasury and, uh, and the intelligence community and the USG. Uh, and this was the bipartisan issue is following the money tracking terrorist financing.

Michael Greenwald: (04:29)
Uh, these were issues that we needed to tackle after nine 11. So I had the great pleasure of, uh, working against, uh, Al Qaeda and its affiliates in Africa, and really understanding how money John was being moved outside of formal banking channels. Um, I would call some of the illicit activity happening today, almost like digital hawala hawala is moving money out notes, uh, outside of formal banking channels. Uh, and then I had an opportunity to work, uh, with Europe and on their counter-terrorism efforts, whether it was wrong. And I think our, our sanctions against Russia war a watershed moment for me, and I think for the treasury, because we use the dollar, uh, in a, in a different scalpel, like way to use debt and equity restrictions. And then with ISIS, he went towards a different type of group where they were actually creating a state and using many different funding streams. So that's kind of where my perspective has come from, uh, where we are today.

John Darcie: (05:38)
So Michael, in those roles at treasury, you obviously witnessed firsthand the power of the dollars global reserve currency status. So before we get into some of these more in-depth topics for people that are less initiated on the value for the United States of having that status in terms of the dollar being the Globe's reserve currency, why is that so important? Powerful for us as a country?

Michael Greenwald: (06:02)
Well, the doll, or, you know, has many benefits. And I, you know, it provides the ability for the U S to support a global order, uh, you know, around free markets. Uh, democracy maintains influence really over the integrity of the global financial system, John and that's beneficial too. I would say, you know, all participant countries, um, it allows the United States to, uh, stabilize global economic shocks. Some would argue that the fed was the world's, uh, you know, central bank, uh, during COVID, uh, it provides the world with access to mature capital markets. Uh, one thing that China has not been able to develop yet in someone argue has a tough time doing, um, it continues to be the dollar, the world's, uh, primary unit of measure, um, means of exchange, uh, and store value. And the store of value is a very important point. It also affords John the world advantages in assessing a mature capital markets, um, offering low costs and stability. Uh, and then those markets, you know, chose the dollar. Uh, they chose the dollar, given that breadth and depth by the U S economy, uh, unparalleled liquidity, uh, and that's allowed for the dollar to play almost a 60% reserve role, uh, around the world right now for central banks.

John Darcie: (07:35)
And in terms of the implementation of sanctions, you know, why the fact that the dollar is so dominant around the world, how does that allow us to prosecute our agenda around the world as a country?

Michael Greenwald: (07:46)
Well, countries want to be able to bank and to operate within a us jurisdiction in New York. And so it's a privilege to be able to operate within the U S banking sector. And in order to meet that bar, um, you need to, uh, have integrity in what you're doing. Uh, so if you're an elicit actor and you are interacting with material support-wise, uh, with someone on a U S sanctions list, um, you cannot operate in the United States. You're if it touches the U S in any way, those assets will be frozen. Um, the best example is what led up to the Iran deal. Uh, if there were countries that were, uh, any way economically operating or interacting with Iran or their jurisdiction, um, they could not operate within the United States. And so there was a clear line in the sand, John of how the United States has weaponized the dollar it's been very effective. Uh, as you know, I argue that we have to be careful how much we weaponize it. We have to be careful how much we put that line in the stand, because as we are seeing with China and other adversaries, they're looking for ways to go around the dollar. So it's very powerful. We use it very wisely in our sanctions toolkit, but we can't overuse it.

John Darcie: (09:17)
So you talked about the idea that these countries, especially China and Russia, for example, looking for ways to circumvent the U S dollar denominated system. Uh, do you think that the dollar status as the dominant global reserve currency is under threat, and what will the implications of that be for national security for, for economic, uh, factors in the U S w what would that mean?

Michael Greenwald: (09:40)
Well, I don't think it's under threat per se. I mean, we're still 59% central bank reserves. There's been a lot of hyperbole about the dollar is going to be overtaken by the Chinese by 2020. And you've seen, uh, continents, uh, predict this incorrectly for years. So I think where the threat lies, John is the United States being complacent. And when you're the leader, uh, it's very easy to rest on your laurels. And we've got a lot of rate economic laurels, which are just laid out with the doll, the dollar, the rest on. So I think we need to continue to innovate. Uh, we need to watch what our adversaries are doing, but we have to be proactive. We can't just admire their rise. Um, so I think countries are actively looking for ways to work with other currencies and really follow a basket of currencies approach. But the real threat, in my opinion, is us not being able to innovate. And that's where it gets to, uh, the future of currency, digital dollar, uh, and alike,

John Darcie: (10:48)
Right? So let let's pivot there into digital currencies and we'll start with Bitcoin. So there's two different topics here. There's central bank digital currencies. The idea that, uh, if sovereign nations are going to digitize the dollar, the Yuan, uh, other global currencies and the impact that could have, uh, but there's also a Bitcoin, which is the dominant, fully decentralized digital currency. There was comments from Peter teal, the prominent, uh, venture capitalists, who recently said that he thinks that we have to consider the possibility that Bitcoin is a Chinese financial weapon. Maybe he was hyperbolized or there was some strategic reason for him to make those comments, but it's just an interesting thought that Bitcoin could have a role in helping to, uh, diminish the dollar status as the global reserve currency. What impact do you think the rise of digital currencies like Bitcoin will have on the dollar? And do you think the U S government is, is potentially going to regulate Bitcoin in a way that protects the dollar?

Michael Greenwald: (11:46)
Well, I think that Bitcoin is creating more choice in optionality, uh, for the consumer and for, for people. And so I think it's inevitable that, you know, Bitcoin and others are here to say, um, you know, some experts I speak with John, you know, liking the technology of Bitcoin right now to like Napster when the internet was starting and there will be other versions of it in a theory, him and others will build audit and each will be a useful tool, whether Ethereum is better for the art world or others, uh, we can get to, um, I would say that it's good to have optionality. It's good to have choice. Um, but I don't think Bitcoin is going to, um, hurt the dollar per se. I have a dollar is going to be strong in its own, right. Uh, Bitcoin will come under more. I would say regulatory guardrails by the U S government, uh, in the months and years to come.

Michael Greenwald: (12:52)
Uh, I think that central bankers are, are trying to get their, their minds are around what this means. Uh, uh, part of it, the market will dictate that on Peter Teal's comments. Uh, listen, China does not view Bitcoin as a legal tender. Um, they have taken some more hawkish actions in the last week. Uh, they're pushing their digital wan, that's their primary focus, but let's remember a large amount of, uh, Bitcoin is being mined in China right now. So, you know, there is, there is a narrative that's playing out there. Um, I wouldn't go as far as what Peter is saying, but what I would say is that it's creating optionality for people to operate outside of the United States dollar. And so that is one of China's goals. So in essence, Bitcoin is playing into China's long-term narrative and strategy, uh, for the us to not be as economic influential, uh, as they currently are right now, in one thing to note would be central bank reserves, right? So we're at 59% dollars central bank reserves right now, the lowest level in 25 years. Um, that's going to be a number to watch, uh, what would be the reaction, John, if we saw a headline tomorrow that said that dollar reserves drop below 50%, how would the United States react? So those are some of the things that I think are important guideposts to keep in mind.

John Darcie: (14:28)
Yeah, the, the Napster analogy is one I haven't heard, but one that's definitely interesting. And you referenced those moves that China recently made. They've banned Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in various forms in 2013, in 2017, but that most recent crackdown, we actually wrote about it in our assault Bitcoin newsletter that we send out every Wednesday morning. So I steeped myself in that over the last week, and it definitely things to the next level in terms of how they're regulating cryptocurrencies out of their economy, including crackdowns on Bitcoin mining. So that asphalt aspect of it is also slowly going away. Okay.

Michael Greenwald: (15:02)
That was a great, that was a great writeup. And I would just argue some argue that that's because, uh, the Chinese currency and if digital one is not taking off as fast as they would, like, they're scaling up, mobility is not taking off. And so, uh, China's reaction, some would argue is insecurity and, uh, controlling that, you know, in the last couple years, because China under pressure, they've restricted gold from leaving China. And obviously it's a safe Haven asset. Everybody wants to, to, to point to gold. It's never a good sign in a country's economic narrative when you're restricting gold from leaving.

John Darcie: (15:46)
Yeah. Any country with capital controls in place would seem not to me to be a natural, uh, you know, sponsor of the rise of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, because it, it provides an avenue for people to skirt those capital controls. So that narrative around, uh, that TL basically put forward around China using Bitcoin as a, as a financial weapon, never really resonated completely with me. Uh, but it's just an interesting topic because of Bitcoin's role in, in potentially, uh, weakening the dollars global reserve currency status. But, you know, so we talked about this a month or so ago when we had you on the salt bit point of view, but I want to talk about it again for this audience, Michael Morel, uh, basically, uh, a group of people in the digital asset space got the former CIA director, Michael Morrell, uh, to author a report about illicit activities, uh, you know, related to cryptocurrencies, the colonial pipeline hack happened after that.

John Darcie: (16:36)
So we saw a use case example of an organization of hackers using digital currencies and Bitcoin in that case to collect ransoms after they hack the colonial pipeline, which obviously disrupted, uh, oil, uh, flow around the country and putting in the Southeast where my parents lived, they couldn't get gas for a few days. Um, but how much in your view is Bitcoin and other digital currencies or cryptocurrencies decentralized cryptocurrencies used in illicit finance? And how much should we be worried about that? Let's say you're a Bitcoin investor. How much should you be worried about a crack down on Bitcoin because of its role in illicit finance?

Michael Greenwald: (17:11)
Well, I, I think it's definitely an intelligence gap. Uh, as you know, Michael Morel points out. There's not enough data yet. I wish I wish the report had been done independently. Uh, I have a lot of respect for Michael Morel and he's a very wise and he's been through the trenches. Um, so it's important to note that's an important report. Um, but it's an intelligence gap. I think I used to deal with ransom payments when I was, you know, when we were countering Al-Qaeda in Africa, the groups there raised a lot of their money, John through ransom payments, and those were usually paid, um, in euros, right. Uh, or dollars. Um, now you're seeing a lot of these ransoms being paid, um, in, um, you know, digital currencies, Bitcoin and others. Um, the, the, the data that we have on this, I think it's still very low.

Michael Greenwald: (18:09)
And I think that the, the intelligence community, my sense, uh, is likely putting more resources to try to understand this data stream as a, as an investor. I think you criminals in terrorists are going to use every aspect of formal and elicit banking channels and non-banking channels to achieve their objective. So I think they have to expect that more of this will continue. And then more of this will operate, which is why I think it'd be wise for the fed and the government to have targeted regulation, not too much, not in an overhand approach, but at least some guard rails so that people can understand how to operate. Um, but, you know, listen, blockchain technology, uh, it can be a great tool for preventing criminals from actually using it. So I think there's both sides, but overall, not enough information, too many gaps, anyone that says all of this is Alyssa. All of us is not, there's not enough information yet to really make the determination.

John Darcie: (19:22)
Yeah. I mean, I think the, the first step is just digitizing more, more things, and we can pivot to talking about central bank, digital currencies, but obviously a us dollar paper has been used, uh, around the world, maybe for more illicit activity than any other currency in history. You talk about, you know, ranging from drug cartels to terrorist financing, you know, physical bills have certainly been used throughout history in that regard, but central bank, digital currencies. I know it's an area that you studied very closely. You wrote, I think what was one of the most thoughtful and Seminole papers on the digital one as part of the Belfer center research that you do. So talk to us about that digital won project. Why is China moving forward more aggressively than anyone else with that digital one project? Do you think it will be successful and how are they going about it?

Michael Greenwald: (20:12)
So China, you know, wants control at every level and that speaks to their longterm strategy. So the ability for China through its central bank to control the consumer, get streams of information about the consumer at every level, all payments that is, uh, you know, exactly what China, uh, lives and breathes, right? So I think ultimately they're looking to scale up and leading up to the Olympics and they've had lotteries, uh, over 50 million people have been using the digital one. Um, the big question is, is whether it can be used for joint trade and whether it actually gets operationalized John in the belt and road initiative, which has done a dollars right now, whether they're actually able to, um, have a deepen relationship with swift, how financial messages are being moved, um, and how it plays into OPEC. But what they're doing in China right now is that they are making this part of the culture part of the economic fabric.

Michael Greenwald: (21:22)
And so just like with Alipay pay and others, and everything will be done through digital one, and it will be in the interest of China and the consumer to be using it. They're looking to set a precedent for others. So Russia is creating its own China and Iran have an economic agreement in the last month raw and will likely try to follow some best practices of what's worked with China to operate outside of the U S dollar. So what I see here is a web of countries looking for control using their central banks, uh, to do that. Now what's dangerous is for that narrative to be played into what the United States may do. And the fed this summer is coming out with a paper on, uh, the possibility of a digital dollar, a central bank, digital currency, and the United States digital dollar will be the opposite of what China is looking to do.

Michael Greenwald: (22:28)
The United States is going to have to make sure that there's an act of Congress that still liberties are built in that there's oversight, uh, financial inclusion, all of these benefits, um, Lael, Brainard fed governor, extremely influential voice, uh, laid out yesterday, uh, really four key areas, uh, for, you know, digital, private money is what she called it. And, you know, she laid out, you know, migration to digital payments, uh, plans for the use of foreign central bank, digital currencies, and cross border payments. Uh, you know, there's a concern here in the United States, John, about financial inclusion. Those are the sharpen focuses of it. What I see, or I see a couple of main benefits, uh, for a digital dollar and not just the United States, uh, but really globally. So that would be, you know, providing the ability, uh, through its privacy regulatory capacity, uh, to really have a digital dollar platform.

Michael Greenwald: (23:30)
And that will allow the United States to reassert a Western standards, uh, values such as rule of law, reasonable privacy, complete opposite than China in Russia, in Iran, um, greater from faster transactions, reduced costs, uh, faster cross border transactions, which we saw, you know, in the COVID payments, uh, during, uh, the congressional acts, uh, checks will be mailed, uh, much quicker through digital dollar, um, greater transparency, accountability. And ultimately, I would say a narrative for the digital dollar to facilitate greater economic growth. And those would be a couple of the things that I think would be outlined in a narrative as central bank, digital currencies grow, um, and the Europeans and others grab onto it.

John Darcie: (24:24)
Well, it'll be fascinating to read that white paper when it comes out this summer, uh, because we've talked to various people on, on this salt talk series, including Marty Chavez, who was a senior executive at Goldman Sachs, focusing on technology and money in that intersection, uh, Goldman, he had some fascinating, real life use cases for a central bank digital currency. And it'll be very interesting to see whether, uh, the U S government starts to implement a strategy in that regard, but you are an expert on the art market as well. You've written a lot of very interesting papers. I think you're, you're a leading expert on this topic. You've talked about how the art market is helping to legitimize digital currencies, you know, moving it away from this stigma around illicit finance and, and the things that people might associate digital currencies with, uh, you know, who are less educated on them. Uh, and digital currencies are being used very heavily in the art market. You've also seen the, uh, explosion of the NFT market. Could you explain how you think the art market is legitimising digital currencies?

Michael Greenwald: (25:21)
Sure. So the art, market's sort of a fascinating case study as we're talking about all these topics. If you look at moments in time of the economy and where the art market has been, it's been a very important, uh, you know, comparison. So I view the, the, the big three, right? Christie's Sotheby's, and Phillip's the three major global auction houses. John, I view them like the central banks of the art world and what they are doing with minting their own tokens, uh, having sales in NFTs, allowing to accept, uh, different currencies, uh, favoring Ethereum, I would say in this regard, uh, and, and I would say gateways like a marker, um, or maker. Um, they are allowing the market to play out faster than our own federal reserve, our own banks, uh, here, uh, and elsewhere. So digital artists and NFT, this has been around since the fifties.

Michael Greenwald: (26:32)
The difference now is there is a market for it just like there was a market for the dollar. And I would say the reason why people have, I think gravitated towards Bitcoin and others is they were looking for optionality. They felt constrained by oversight. Artists feel the same way. They feel constrained by the canvas, John, and they want to operate outside of it. They want to have more rights, more independence. They don't want to have seven different, different intermediaries control, whether they're going to end up at art Basel or not, right. They want to have their own identity. So I think all of these themes, very interesting plane to the art market's growth as they do in the intersection of the future of money as well.

John Darcie: (27:26)
Yeah. And one of the great things about NFTs and tokens in the art world is that it gives that, uh, that artist control over any subsequent sales or at least they get proceeds from subsequent sales of their art, um, that allows them to share on the spoils, uh, that, that the speculation within art, uh, that, that comes along with that. So as it relates to Bitcoin, we've talked about central bank, digital currencies, we've talked about Bitcoin. Do you think that those are in competition with each other? You know, we have some people that come to us, uh, you know, we at SkyBridge are investors in Bitcoin who say, well, I'm just going to wait for the digital dollar to come. That's going to replace Bitcoin. Do you think those again are in competition with each other or what's the impact of central bank, digital currencies on Fiat currencies? Like the dollar?

Michael Greenwald: (28:08)
I don't think they're in competition. I think they will live alongside each other, John, uh, in a virtual future virtual wallet. And I think that each of these currencies, whether they're Bitcoin, Ethereum, uh, Coronado, digital dollar digital one, you know, digital yen, they will all have different purposes. And the, the future consumer, you know, our kids and our grandkids, they will have a virtual wallet and they will all live alongside each other. Uh, we'll be living in a basket of currencies, uh, mindset in a world where people want choices. So I, I think it's a false narrative to say that one's a threat to each other. The market will choose a which one is more favorable, depending on the purpose. I don't see Bitcoin, uh, really, uh, hurting the dollar too much or cutting it down. I think the market will choose a reasonable outcome as long as there is more guardrails, more regulatory guidance. Um, so that's kind of see how I see it playing out

John Darcie: (29:15)
Right or shift gears to a broader conversation around, uh, global economics and global geopolitics. So you also wrote an interesting piece. You've written a couple of pieces actually, uh, at, at the Belfer center around a vaccine diplomacy around public health sanctions. A lot has been made in the last couple of weeks about a new report in the wall street journal about the origins of COVID-19 the virus that it, that it emanated out of a lab in Wu Han, you know, how should the Chinese be held accountable if that's the case? And they withheld information early on in the pandemic that led obviously to economic and human tragedy, uh, around the world. Uh, do you think that the us should be actively trying to hold China accountable if they do find enough evidence to prove, um, that the virus emanated out of the lab, obviously the Biden administration has taken a more cautious approach. Some in the, in the former Trump administration have demanded a little bit more accountability, but how should we look at sort of managing public health outcomes, uh, using things like sanctions?

Michael Greenwald: (30:17)
Well, I, I think we would have to do it very carefully, very targeted, um, but accountability, especially, uh, post pandemic is critical to, to prevent future ones. So, uh, I, I think we need to understand the origins. We understand what went wrong, so that we can prevent it, just like how we can prevent another nine 11 to, uh, understand the origins and throughout, and from that from nine 11 came a series of actions and we use sanctions various strategically. Um, I think, uh, public health best practices, uh, is a form of our national security. Uh, and we have to treat public health, uh, more, I would say in that realm, but at the same time, there's, uh, a, I would say there's a human rights aspect to it. Uh, there are certain communities that don't have access John to the kind of care we have in the United States. So it's going to be a delicate balance if we were to apply those sanctions, uh, you know, how and where and what would be the impact. So we'd have to weigh the cost benefit, but I, I believe, uh, accountability through targeted sanctions, uh, is incredibly important because if we don't do that, uh, it will happen again. It will be repeatable, uh, and there needs to be consequences.

John Darcie: (31:44)
So the policy response to COVID-19, there was a lot of turning inward that happened in various countries and regions around the world for often, very practical reasons around, you know, containing the virus and sort of having determinism of your own outcome as it relates to COVID. Uh, but what impact long-term do you think the broader policy response to COVID-19 will have on global commerce global trade?

Michael Greenwald: (32:09)
Well, I think term it's, that's been one of the drivers, I think for digital currencies. I think digital currencies have thrived during this time. And so I think that's going to be looked at as a major watershed moment, uh, in the past year and a half, um, prior to COVID central banks played a huge role in the financial crisis. Um, and they played a very role here, but this allowed for there to be a turning of the tide. And I think that that's going to be one of the hallmarks of the future. Uh, in addition, I think supply chains, it was finally an event that put, um, a true awareness on what these major companies, uh, have to choose before them. Um, in addition, it's, it's, it's allowed countries like Australia and New Zealand to operate differently, uh, with China. Um, and so I think there is good. I would say the biggest takeaways I have going forward, uh, will be what it's done for the digital currency space, uh, and what it will do for the future of supply chains and the choice of costs, uh, companies will have to make.

John Darcie: (33:26)
So, um, John Siena was recently promoting a movie in China fast and furious nine. We're focusing on China for the last half of this conversation, but he basically slipped up and recognize Taiwan as a country and some of the promotion he was doing, he was forced I'm sure by the, uh, the movie heads, uh, to go out on Sinai, Weebo the social media app in China, and apologize for that mistake of calling Taiwan and country. I think you've seen China take, uh, a, an even more sort of pugnacious tone as it relates to Taiwan, maybe sensing, uh, an opening to do so with the, the, uh, onboarding of a new administration in the U S do you think that China will continue to take a strong posture as it relates to issues like Taiwan? Obviously you have a huge semiconductor market in Taiwan, and you talk about supply chains and, and for us national security reasons, the prioritization of building out our own microchip infrastructure here, but do you think China will continue to take sort of a standoffish approach with Hong Kong Taiwan and what's the U S policy response need to be to that?

Michael Greenwald: (34:35)
Yeah, that lies in a, in a policy of insecurity for China and, uh, their reaction, uh, where, uh, you know, someone would have to apologize. It's a kin to the thing, it's the SEF Rogan, North Korea movie, right. And the outcome after that. Uh, so that tells you, it tells you part of, China's really hand in this, that, uh, in the same thing happened with the NBA, uh, with China, uh, in the past year plus. So that shows you that they do holds, uh, quite a few economic, uh, supply chain cards right now. I would hope that we would move towards a better outcome where, um, we wouldn't have to apologize. Um, and we would be able to have more, um, I would say economic relevance, uh, an ability where we wouldn't have to do that, but Taiwan is a very sensitive topic for China. I think it's going to, it's going to be the major, uh, you know, tests and task, uh, for this administration, uh, going forward is, is how it dances around this issue, how it works with China on climate. Doesn't give away too many concessions, but at the same time, uh, moves the ball forward. Isn't just admiring the problem. I mean, administrations, Democrat, or Republican John, they've just been admiring, uh, uh, growing China for years, um, without much real movement. Uh, so, um, that will be a continued point of a growing insecurity for China,

John Darcie: (36:19)
Right. And one of your great areas of expertise is the golf, as we mentioned in the open, and you talked about at the beginning was that you are the attache, the commercial attache to Qatar and Kuwait. You're very steeped in the Gulf. Uh, you act as a business development lead at Tita men in the Gulf as well, uh, with China representing a much greater share of oil demand. Now that the us has greater energy independence. Obviously there's been closer ties that have been developed between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, uh, other countries in the Gulf and China, uh, and, and the Biden administration in general is taking a more cautious approach related to our alliances in the Gulf, do expect to see an eastward shift in, in geopolitical realignment, uh, between the Gulf and China, uh, in, in replacement of those strong ties that the Gulf has always had with the United States.

Michael Greenwald: (37:10)
I don't think doesn't mean you're a replacement, but I think that tide has already been turning. And China's been, I remember being mayor John in 2015 and 2017. And, uh, you know, I was watching closely, you know, China's movements in the Gulf and it's been in closing, uh, you know, increasingly close. Uh, I've seen, you know, most central bank governors in the region, all visit China, right? And you've seen delegations grow back and forth. Uh, so I think that will continue how the United States, uh, stays relevant, protects it, but the Gulf, the Gulf is the Gulf countries are intermediaries within intermediaries. They need many out, they need, uh, you know, many economic partners. So they're going to play the United States off China off each other. Constantly. The real thing to watch is Israel's relationship with China and how Israel uses their tech and their growing nature of their economy and what that looks like between the U S and China. Uh, that will be fascinating. I expect, um, greater Gulf. Um, I would say funding to go to China. And I think the type of deal that China did with a rod they're likely looking to, to do the same thing with certain Gulf countries, uh, to gain more influence. The big thing to watch is if there is a major thong between Saudi and Iran, where is China's role in that thought? And that will be a very interesting intersection to watch because China wants to be at that table.

John Darcie: (38:50)
So the last piece on China, that's, that's very recent in the last 48 hours or so the EU parliament basically froze any investment into China as part of a trade deal that was struck, uh, I believe last year, after about seven years in negotiations, it was a big deal when it happened. Um, and obviously Europe sort of stagnating and its growth has turned eastward as well. Uh, looking to stimulate growth through, through partnership with China, but also, uh, the Europeans have, have introduced sanctions on China for, uh, treatment of the weekers and that entire controversy. Uh, so what do you expect the relationship between Europe and China to be, do you think the Biden administration is going to work harder to create a unified front in terms of confronting China on human rights, human rights issues and intellectual property theft and the core issues that, that we're trying to work with China on, or what do you expect that relationship between Europe and China to look like over the coming years?

Michael Greenwald: (39:43)
So Yurman Shina, it's going to be a public frosty relationship privately China needs Europe in Europe needs China. So I think the, the public posture will be very different than what's happening. Uh, behind the scenes. I expect the Europeans defined workarounds, uh, to work with China. It is a good opening for the Biden administration. I was a bit, um, I would say disturbed, you know, prior to the administration coming in to office at China would have this deal with the EU. So I think this is a new opening, uh, you know, the president sending some of this top, uh, ambassadors, uh, to Europe shortly who are, have been closed aids to him. So I expect them to double down on that relationship and to really make it worth the EUS, uh, economic strategy to pivot more to the U S uh, than China. Um, but you know, I think what the EU has done to China, um, I, I'm happy to see that it's, it's long overdue, uh, but again, there's that public, uh, persona John and what they actually do behind the scenes.

John Darcie: (40:57)
Right. I, I think that was the biggest criticism of the Trump administration. Not that they, uh, you know, we're, we're taking pains to hold China accountable for a variety of different things, whether they didn't, uh, create that unified front in order to have more leverage, uh, in our various negotiations with China. So, uh,

Michael Greenwald: (41:15)
It lives in the middle is going to be incredibly important. And I think in order for this administration to really, uh, I would say achieve its its key objectives, uh, they're gonna need a work targeted with China and they're going to have to work much more multilateral with Europe and their allies. And, uh, you know, re-imagine what the G seven looks like. And I expect them to do that.

John Darcie: (41:38)
Well, Michael, it's been a pleasure to have you here on salt talks. Uh, thank you for joining us and also joining us a few weeks ago for that salt Bitcoin review. You're our go-to expert, uh, on any topic related to the dollar geopolitics and global economics and the art market as well. Uh, so I, I couldn't highly recommend enough that you go, if you're interested in what we talked about here today to the Belfer center website, uh, where Michael writes about a lot of these topics in even more depth, and I'm sure he'll be closely covering these central bank digital currency and digital dollar initiatives here in the U S especially as that white paper comes out this summer and we something, maybe we'll revisit another conversation with you, Michael, but thanks so much for joining us.

Michael Greenwald: (42:16)
Thank you so much for having me, John, great to be on salt talks again,

John Darcie: (42:19)
And thank you everybody for tuning in to today's episode of salt talks with Michael Greenwald of Tetum and advisors. Just a reminder, if you missed any part of this episode or any of our previous episodes, you can access them on demand on our website. It's salt.org backslash talks, and on our YouTube channel, which is called salt tube. We're also on Twitter is where we're most active on social media at salt conference, but we're also on LinkedIn, Instagram, and Facebook. And please spread the word about these salt talks. We've really enjoyed educating and even the larger group of people than we do at our conferences through our digital media initiatives, uh, during and after COVID. Uh, so, uh, so please, uh, spread the word about this conversation and other topics that we discuss here on salt talks from a half of the entire team behind the scenes here at salt talks, I'm John Darcie signing off, uh, from salt talks for today. We hope to see you back here again soon.

Jon Najarian: Market Rebellion | SALT Talks #218

“Bitcoin is a governor or regulator on governmental spending. If spending goes too crazy, more money flows into Bitcoin because people are worried that the government is making their money worth less.”

Jon Najarian is the Co-Founder of Market Rebellion. Market Rebellion offers in-depth trader education, coaching and mentoring – from beginner to advanced – to help you build the knowledge base and practical skills required for market success. 

Jon tells crypto newcomers to focus first on simply buying the dips in price of Bitcoin. Najarian preaches the importance of having an emotional detachment to trading and sticking to sound fundamentals that mitigate risk. He sees Bitcoin’s value derived from its scarcity in a world of expanded money supply via government spending- Bitcoin acts a regulator against excessive spending and potential inflation. Najarian thinks Ethereum will continue growing into one of the most valuable crypto assets because of its use around smart contracts. 

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Jon Najarian.jpeg

Jon Najarian

Co-Founder

Najarian Advisors

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 - Intro

8:26 - Approach to investing and responding to adversity

13:47 - Value of Bitcoin

16:38 - Equity markets

21:22 - Evaluating Ethereum and other crypto altcoins

24:57 - Analyzing Elon Musk’s role in recent Bitcoin dips

33:00 - Emerging crypto trends

37:15 - Growing participation in markets and trading among newcomers

42:25 - Effects of crypto governmental regulations

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darcie: (00:07)
Hello everyone. And welcome back to salt talks. My name is John Darcie. I'm the managing director of salt, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance technology and public policy. Salt talks are a digital interview series with leading investors, creators, and thinkers. And our goal on these salt talks is the same as our goal at our salt conferences, which our guest today has been to many salt conferences over the years. And we're excited to resume those conferences with his presence, God willing in September of 2021 here in New York city. But our goal is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And we're very excited to talk about some of those big ideas with one of our great friends, Dr.

John Darcie: (00:52)
John Najarian, uh, John or Dr. Jay has he's affectionately known by many of his friends that was a linebacker for the Chicago bears before he turned to another kind of contact sport, maybe even higher contact, which was trading on the Chicago board of options exchange. I became a member of the CBO, E N Y S CME and CBOT and work as a floor trader for some 25 years. Uh, today John is a professional investor, money manager and media analyst. He has earned reputation in the industry as an options, trading expert and pioneer. Uh, he developed a patented trading application or many patented trading applications and algorithms, uh, used to identify unusual activity in stocks, options, and futures markets. Uh, John can be seen weekly on CNBC, which if you watch CNBC, I'm sure you've seen John's face plenty of times where he's a cast member of the halftime report and fast money programs.

John Darcie: (01:45)
Uh, John and his brother, Pete, invest in and work with startups via rebellion partners of venture consulting firm. They launched in 2015 and in 2016, John and Pete co-founded market rebellion, which is a company focused on educating the individual investor. Uh, joining today's show as moderator is Anthony Scaramucci, who is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge capital, which is a global alternative investment firm. Anthony, uh, many years ago was a CNBC contributor and recently rejoined the network as a contributor. So we're excited to see him back on the network there, hopefully alongside John here in the near future. Uh, but with that, I'll turn it over to Anthony for the

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:21)
John I'm the Michael Corleone of CNBC, right? They thought they were getting rid of me, but I pulled myself back in see that. So

Jon Najarian: (02:30)
They're smart to do that, Anthony, because you're one of the brightest and most active voices in finance. And I'm not just saying that, uh, uh, anybody who's attended salt knows that Anthony is a great moderator as well as a keynote speaker. And I'm thrilled to be here with you, Anthony. I can't wait

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:49)
Me. There'll be no questions for Mr. Jinja Darcie. There'll be no questions for Misena Jerry. And just, we're just going to let him continue. I know he has an ear in and my mom is talking to him. So thank you. Thank you for channeling all that into John. I want to go off the grid here a little bit if it's okay, because we had you on our Bitcoin review a few weeks ago, obviously spectacular. Uh, and we're thrilled to have you on salt, but John, there's a way of life that you and Peter, uh, you have a joy to Debree. You have a joy of life that, uh, I've experienced, uh, for a decade and a half. Uh, other people around you have a debt I've experienced that. There's an aura about you, of positivity. And, uh, I wanna, I want to go there. Where does this all come from? How do you generate it every day? Um, how do you deal with your worries and troubles? All human beings have those as well. Uh, give us a little bit of a sense for your personal philosophy, your personal background, your folks, you know, your mom and dad, et cetera. Then we'll, we'll get into investing in a second, but we have a lot of young people that listen to these things and I want them to get the ethos of John at Jerry.

Jon Najarian: (04:06)
Sure. Well, Anthony, thank you. I think any of us who have survived for years, uh, on the street as you and I have, um, although it seems to have taken more of a toll on me, Anthony. Um, I think you, you

Anthony Scaramucci: (04:20)
Don't have my dermatologist and the Gerian, but then again, I don't have your physique. Okay.

Jon Najarian: (04:25)
Uh, come on. Um, physique, that is part of it. Um, not how you look, but how you feel and you, and I know you gotta take care of yourself, um, wall street, uh, you know, when you're at Goldman Sachs or, uh, you know, Pete and I traded for the partners at Goldman for years when you're under pressure from things like that or any of the myriad of, uh, uh, great hedge fund managers, uh, it's not luck. Those guys are grinders. The men and women like Kathy woods, uh, obviously fantastic. Five-year run she's up 40% a year, uh, on average. And people want to say, she's a flash in the pan, Anthony, but we both know it's grinding and it also can grind you down because just like a football coach, Pete would say that, uh, you know, years ago, bud grant from the Vikings used to show up, uh, not too long ahead of training camp.

Jon Najarian: (05:27)
He didn't want a long training camp because he said, if you're not, if you don't show up ready to play, I don't want you. So he didn't figure that he had to get people into shape during training camp. But these days, Anthony it's flipped 180 degrees. Um, not that they don't arrive in shape, they do, but it's a 365 day grind to be a pro athlete to be a professional trader. Um, very similar in that regard. And you can spend all day watching film just like you and I could spend all day on spreadsheets, whether it's fundamental analysis, technical analysis, whatever else. And then you're going to have a horrible life. You might have some fantastic returns here and there, but your life overall is not going to be great. You've probably not going to be appreciated by your significant other or your children. Um, and so I think you and I have more or less made a decision that, okay, I'll grind hard and then I'm going to go home and I'm going to make sure I take care of my body.

Jon Najarian: (06:32)
I'm going to make sure I'm there for my kids. And by doing those things, uh, even for the young traders out there, yeah, you do need to grind, but you don't have to make this. The only reason that you're alive, uh, the other reasons are very important too. And so, yeah, I get up at five 30. I go out and I workout Anthony because I know it takes the stress off me. Um, I know I'm a better dad, a better husband by doing that and I feel better. So I I'm addicted to those endorphins. Uh, and I think all of us love the idea that we're just going to keep grinding, uh, as long as we can.

Anthony Scaramucci: (07:14)
So, and I totally agree with you. I try to hit the gym regularly. Um, although I'm a talions, so I ended up eating too much pasta. I'm going to punch Darcie in the mouth, you know, let me tell you something bad doors. He's right outside the door now, you know, when we were in full COVID. Okay. It wasn't this close. Okay. I just said, I like eating pasta and the expression on his face was you fat bastard. That's basically, this is a projection, John [inaudible] these young guys. Okay. We may do a zoom wrestle me and Darcie. Okay. And I got a lot of middle-age

Jon Najarian: (07:51)
Rage per view,

Anthony Scaramucci: (07:54)
So just be careful there. So, so, so John you've been wracked, I've been walloped a few times. I got wild at the white house. I took it down 24.7 months in March of 2020. I got kicked in the teeth in 2008. I thought we were going to lose our business. Um, tell us about one of those experiences for John and Jerry. And, and how did you pull yourself together and how did you rebuild from a down period? Um, give us your thoughts there.

Jon Najarian: (08:27)
Sure. Well, um, I try not to let it swing too wildly, Anthony, and I think, uh, you know, not to put myself on a pedestal with Leon Cooperman or Carl Icahn or some of the iconic figures in our industry, but I do like to celebrate, and I'll say, bang, you know, when I have a good trade or whatever it is, um, because that's kind of my signature thing now, but I get so crazy about it. Um, that, uh, it's swings all the way over the pendulum goes so far over that. As soon as you have anything that of that, you're going to be negative. You're going to feel all that negative energy. So when I've had big losses and I've had, um, you know, just like you have, uh, I've looked, uh, I mean, by the way, this past week, um, I have two wallets, if you will, Anthony, for my Bitcoin or my crypto trading, one is a stone that I've held since 2016 and 2017 without touching it.

Jon Najarian: (09:35)
Um, because I just want to put that away. Hopefully just give those coins to my daughters or charity or whatever. Um, but I just want to hold those. I'm a hold alert for that. But then I have a bunch of other coins that I'm trading now this past week. Um, well we saw the crypto universe trade from a 2 trillion market cap down to 1.2 trillion in a matter of days, a 38% drop. And that includes Bitcoin. So if you take Bitcoin out of there, it was more like 60%. I mean, the drop in market cap was so dramatic that, you know, I don't want to focus on that because that'll make me crazy. But I also, um, whenever and you and I, when we've discussed Bitcoin, I always tell news newbies to Bitcoin. You don't have to buy a bunch, just buy it on dips. Um, this was a very significant dip.

Jon Najarian: (10:33)
You got two shots in the last week to buy it right around between 32,000 and 30,000. If you took them, congratulations, that means you're paying attention. And very quickly you had a $10,000 per Bitcoin profit in those kinds of purchases. On the other hand, if you like yourself, get too focused on, oh my God, I'm just losing so much money. Number one, you're probably way too big in the position we Pete and I always called that Anthony, you know, getting the right blinders on like this. I can't see anything else. All I can see is this huge loss. So I'm missing all the stuff out here on the periphery. Um, you know, that means you're too big. Um, you need to cut back your size. Um, you know, uh, I apologize folks, but another sporting analogy, we shorten up our swing. Uh, if I'm not hitting the ball, right.

Jon Najarian: (11:27)
I don't like put my hand down at the number of the bat. I move it up because I just want to make contact. And that's what I did. So I'm not saying, oh, I doubled down down there at 30,000 or 32,000. I didn't, but I did add to positions down there and I traded out as it traded up to 38 and 39, um, more or less, I think that's the way you're supposed to do it. But again, if you get too focused on the loss, just as if you get too focused on, wow, I made all this money, I'm going to buy a Ferrari, I'm going to buy a jet or whatever it might be. I'm going to buy a new watch. Um, most of us in this business that are successful, you don't see Anthony, an awful lot of that kind of behavior. They just want to grind the out there, make the money and just say nine times out of 10, um, I'm gonna be in the right church.

Jon Najarian: (12:23)
I might be in the wrong pew, but I'm going to be in the right church, whether that's tech and growth or whether that's value. Um, and I might occasionally be in the wrong stocks in that right church. So that's the wrong pew. I need to switch quick quickly and get into the right pew. And that's what I try to do is just, don't let the losers, you know, mess with my head or I don't let the losers dominate the performance I've got in my account when I get to a certain level. Um, just like Michael B. Jordan. Um, I cut it without remorse. I like that new movie that he's starring in. And that's one of the things that I live by Anthony is I cut it without remorse just because it's not my kids. It's not my, my life. I just need to move on to the next trade if it's not working.

Anthony Scaramucci: (13:11)
Yeah. So you're basically what you're talking about is you're, you're trading with some level of emotional detachment, right? No remorse, no, uh, love for the coin or hate for the coin. Just, this is what I'm doing. It's right here inside of my field of vision. Um, what do you say to those, but you're also a fundamental issue or a fundamental investor. You, you look at things from font fundamental perspective. What do you say to those that say Bitcoin has absolutely no value? What would be your response to that?

Jon Najarian: (13:47)
Um, I think it's got tremendous value and the value is derived by its scarcity. Um, and again, this is something folks that Anthony knows far better than me, but when you're looking at assets, if I knew there were 50 Honus Wagner baseball cards instead of eight or seven, um, I'd put a whole different value on those cards, um, because they do gather their value by their scarcity Bitcoin. Right now there's 18.6 million of them out there, uh, in the wild, a bunch of them have been lost, um, because you know, some of them were used for nefarious purposes and people lost their wallets and other cases. Um, so not all 18.6 million Bitcoins are even in anything close to circulation, a bunch of Marine cold storage too. So again, uh, when people are looking around and looking for an asset that will appreciate, they tend to look for things, uh, that there aren't that many of now you've got something perhaps like, you know, some of the stocks in the market that have billions and billions of shares of stock, does that mean they can't go up in value?

Jon Najarian: (15:06)
Of course not, but that's a different animal we're talking about. Um, you know, like a trophy property, there's only a couple of them. Okay. So guess what they're worth right now? I mean, go down to Palm beach and tell me what those mansions on the ocean go for. Now, you'd be shocked folks. They're tearing down $30 million mansions and they're building $70 million mansions down there. Why? Because there's a limited amount of land and it's gathering its value by its scarcity. So, uh, when I hear people say Bitcoin's worthless, um, I'm not saying it's currency, I'm saying it's an asset. Um, and it's certainly, uh, in that defier decentralized finance space. I think it's very important because it's almost a governor or a regulator on governmental spending because if they go too crazy, more money flows into Bitcoin because people are worried that the government is making their money worth less. Again, as Warren buffet said, not worthless, but worth less because they're printing so much of it, even if they don't actually add it to paper. Let,

Anthony Scaramucci: (16:22)
Let let's switch topics for a second and talk about the equity markets, um, your technical and fundamental analysis of the equity markets. What sectors do you like John, uh, is the market overheated, do you think there's still value represented in the market today? Uh, what's your opinion there?

Jon Najarian: (16:39)
I do think there's there's value and I think Anthony an awful lot of the forward, um, you know, wall street tends to be a discounting mechanism. We're looking out so many months into the future, predicting what a company might earn, um, whether it's CarMax or whether it's apple. And, you know, since used cars are really a focus right now, CarMax probably a pretty good pick in that space. People just love apple products, they're ubiquitous, uh, and they make money on a reoccurring basis. It's not just, uh, you know, the Tim cook testifying about the app store and them getting a 30% take on something that they didn't make. Um, but, uh, apple will continue to thrive. And after this ruling comes out, even if they ended up paying a fine, I don't think the judge is going to take and throw out Apple's ability to regulate their app store and these in-app purchases and things like that, that Fortnite and all these folks would like to, um, say that apple doesn't deserve an extra little spiff for everything happens in my game or whatever an apple says fine.

Jon Najarian: (17:52)
Don't put it on my platform. Um, you know, there's no gun to your head. You don't have to be here, just go over to Google play. But then of course, uh, all the, all these, uh, I-phones beg to differ with exactly that. I mean, whenever they compare apple to Samsung Anthony, I just shake my head because I think, well, Samsung is great. The phones are great. Android operating system is great, but, uh, there are so many different levers that Tim cook can pull, uh, from the health to the app store, to the cloud. Um, all these different things that apple can do, uh, to make money from a product that they sell once. And they keep getting reoccurring revenue from Samsung, unfortunately for them and no other real manufacturer that you, or I know gets that. And so, uh, when I look at something like that, I say, uh, since you asked, okay, John, which sectors do you like?

Jon Najarian: (18:51)
I still like tech. I still like growth. Um, I think that a lot of the, uh, um, uh, things that are happening right now in the economy, I'm not blaming president by or Congress, but I'm saying if you're, you're assuming that people can't do math, if they sit around and say, why should I go back to McDonald's, uh, and work at a McDonald's and make 1150, or even $15 an hour, if I'm making 17 not working. Now, we both know that runs out in September and 21 states, maybe more have already ended their supplemental payments. Um, and the people that need it really did need it. I think a lot of people that didn't need it, Anthony also got it, but that's the nature of the beast. You know, when Anthony wants to give away his money through a charitable trust or anything else, it has a more direct impact than when the government, as you know, much better than me tries to give money away. So right now, Anthony, we've got people that are sitting at home because they can do math, uh, because they're not stupid and they'll probably stay there for the most part until close to September. When these extra payments run out, it'll be really hard to drag them back in and they'll probably start trickling back in, in August. But certainly not now, not in may. Why would you,

Anthony Scaramucci: (20:18)
Well, I mean, I've had a debate with a lot of people about this. I definitely think there's a segment of the population doing that. You know, I grew up in a blue collar neighborhood, so, and my cousins are doing anything from clamming auto parts, auto glass, pizzerias, and delis. And they're having a hard time finding help. But what they are telling me is people are taking black market jobs. They're, they're working, they're just not working in the economy. They're yeah, they're taking cash. And so we will say they're sitting at home, there's probably a small group of those people, but by and large people are out there hustling and they're like, well, I'm not going to take that full-time job until the big runs out on the government. So I do, I do see any issue, but trust me, those people are working. John they're hustling. A lot of them are hustling. So let's go back to, uh, excuse me, let's go back to Bitcoin for a sec. Um, will it, will it be the apex predator in the space three, five and 10 years from now? Or will something come into the digital asset curve that will overwhelm Bitcoin?

Jon Najarian: (21:22)
Um, I think a theory comes well on its way to overwhelming Bitcoins and Anthony. So

Anthony Scaramucci: (21:27)
You think, you think a theory and we'll flip Bitcoin?

Jon Najarian: (21:30)
Yep. Not in price. Um, but it's already, um, where Bitcoin was last November, as far as market cap, it got up to, I think, as high as 480 or 500.

Anthony Scaramucci: (21:44)
Yep. Almost a half a trillion dollars a market gap. Yep. Yep.

Jon Najarian: (21:47)
And, uh, so some people in the space called this a flippant thing, when it would flip in market cap value higher than Bitcoin, it's just got a lot more uses. Bitcoin is something that, like I say, I think you want to own it, hold it, put it away. Um, whether it's max Kizer or pump Liano or, you know, any of these folks tone, Veys Charlie Shrem, the Winklevoss twins, they'd all tell you just hold onto the Bitcoin. Um, and many of them, because not all of them are maximalists, meaning of course, that they just focus on Bitcoin. Um, some of them are willing to trade those alt coins. And Ethereum seems to me to be one of the best out there because so many of these smart contracts are part of that ERC 20, you know, the, the Ethereum makes all those smart contracts possible.

Jon Najarian: (22:42)
And you know, to me, Anthony smart contracts, uh, are just the future. I mean, literally imagine, uh, that there's a smart contract created by, oh, I don't know your favorite firm or one of your favorite firms, Morgan Stanley and Morgan Stanley coin. Let people say the smart contract could be written such that the, the owner of the coin gets to dictate at what point they want money pulled out of their account and put over into fixed income. Once I get up to X amount, do this automatically, all those kinds of things. Yeah. You could do it in other types of programming, but certainly with a smart contract, especially sports betting, online gaming and things like that. Every time I have over a thousand dollars, move it out off of my draft Kings account over here into this, would that contract, that smart contract be something people would like, heck yeah, because it would discipline them a little. You'd probably even get gambler's anonymous, uh, saying that would be a good thing, but there are just so many different areas that a theory touches indirectly because it is, you know, it is the works behind those smart contracts,

Anthony Scaramucci: (24:01)
So, okay. It's, it's, you know, it's great. I mean, we, we, uh, we'll be launching in a theory and funds soon. I, I love your opinion on it. We don't know the answer a hundred percent, but I do believe that a theory is going to be a prominent couldn't flip Bitcoin, you know, anything's possible, but I do think it's going to be a prominent, uh, application and store value and potential currency certainly is on these NFTs. Um, do you think Elan mosque pop the Bitcoin bull market? Do you think he was a part of it? Do you think there was other things going on maybe too much leverage in the system? Well, you know, if you were analyzing the collapse, the move from 64,000 to 30,000, I guess as we're speaking now, it's about 38,000. Uh, what do you think the factors were?

Jon Najarian: (24:57)
Yep. You're exactly right. I mean, Chinese government oversight, we had so much, you know, all the time. It seems that when you and I have shared time together on CNBC, Anthony, we talk about perfect storms, um, and a perfect storm. You know, just like the book implied was, you know, you get a low pressure system and then you get this, um, certain amount of, uh, uh, moisture coming up from the golfer coming up from the Caribbean that hits this cold weather, weather pattern, and just causes this perfect storm where, you know, it's just Katy bar, the door, uh, that happened in Bitcoin Musk was definitely part of it. China was part of it, um, that over leverage you talk about last week, Anthony, we were checking out some of these stats, 800,000 people were liquidated out of their Bitcoin holdings last week. Um, that's a big number.

Jon Najarian: (25:59)
Um, even if most of those accounts were 2000 to $20,000. Um, and most of that, well, all of that liquidation, unless the, except for the self liquidation, except, you know, if somebody had the discipline to say, boom, I'm cutting, I'm running, I'm getting out liquidations that we're talking about. Folks are ones that are done by derivatives done by Binance done by Coinbase done by anybody, um, who has their money at risk because they let the customer, um, get some leverage. And in the case of Darebin or Binance, or, um, some of these big FTX obey these off shore, Anthony, that you can really only access through a VPN, a virtual private network. You can get a hundred to one leverage. So instead of owning one Bitcoin at say 45,000, um, somebody that has 45,000 in their account might own 10 Bitcoins, 20 Bitcoins, 50 Bitcoins, uh, on the future side. And if that starts going against them, those liquidations happen at light speed. So what happened is we've been broke from 45 to 40. Everybody was stacked up with short puts at that 40 and 39,000 strike. And then as those tumbled, the waterfall of liquidations just drove it to 30 like that. It's why it went so fast. So

Anthony Scaramucci: (27:32)
It all makes sense. And I've seen this happen over the 33 years, I've been doing this. Where are we now? Is that leverage out of the system? Or you still think we're over levered in the, in the crypto space? I

Jon Najarian: (27:44)
Think we took most of that over leverage out of the system. Now, on the other hand, most of those people that, uh, were liquidated, it wasn't all of their money, probably. Um, the many of those exchanges, you know, just like I say, somebody put wires in 20,000 bucks or moves 20,000 in Bitcoin onto an offshore exchange. You're fair game. You're ready to trade. If once you lose that, you probably just reload and go back in with another 20,000 because you made so much money the last few times when you were able to catch the wave to the upside. Um, so do I think they took most of that bad leverage out of the system? I do. Um, I think comments like Elan's about green mining, um, a mutual friend of ours, Anthony, uh, Kevin O'Leary wants to start a green mining council. Um, and obviously that would feed right into what Elon Musk is focused on right now as well.

Jon Najarian: (28:47)
Do I think that there's a value to that? Yes. Um, I think that, you know, green miners, whether it's hydro solar wind, um, those would be the cleanest ways to mine, of course. And anybody that has access to those in, in large enough amounts could be a significant player. And a lot of people probably like Anthony's customers at SkyBridge. A lot of them will probably want if they're, uh, endowments and things like that. They'll probably want green coins, um, in their holdings. Um, so I think that's probably a good thing that Elon has focused in on, but I think he's also kind of playing around on the periphery of it, Anthony, with, um, he's trying to get doge started up, uh, doge of course was really just a couple IBM engineers that said, yeah, we create a coin and they did. Um, a lot of people can create coins.

Jon Najarian: (29:45)
Some six or 7,000 of them are out there in the wild. Um, and don't just the popular ones, uh, because of the Alon primarily. Um, but I love trading dojo. I've still got a bunch of donuts here. Um, I sold most of it before he went on Saturday night, live Anthony. And then, because I said, that's a classic by rumor sell news, you know, as they say, there's nothing new under the sun. So by rumor sell news still works. Um, no triple bottoms still works, um, breakouts to the upside or downside support and resistance charts. And what was support becomes resistance when you try to get back up through it and so forth, all that still works. So right now I'm focused on, um, if Elon can sort of stay a little quieter about crypto, um, if China's not constantly in Janet, Yellen's not pounding the table about whether or not they should do away with crypto or not let minors and hash power. If it moves from China, that's a good thing, by the way. I think Anthony, the more miners that move out of China, the better, um, and I'm sure they're looking for, you know, low cost of, uh, execution, meaning electricity to cool, those plants, those rigs, and so forth. I think a lot of that's good that's happening right now.

Anthony Scaramucci: (31:13)
So we, we, we agree, um, which, uh, sometimes the sparring isn't as much fun. That's why I have to turn my attention to John Darcie once in a while that Jerry, and because you and I agree on a lot of things, but I'm going to turn it over to John. Uh, he's always got, uh, clever questions from the audience and his own questions and, uh, very, very grateful to have you on. Cool. And Darcie, if you're nicer to me, I'll buy you one of them. Najarian Barets okay. You gotta be nicer to me on

Jon Najarian: (31:44)
The salts. All right. I got to send you some of these Anthony, the

Anthony Scaramucci: (31:47)
Rebellion hats. Yeah, there you go. You say we can get swag from the Najarian.

John Darcie: (31:51)
I don't think you are. I can pull off, uh, the bra as well as, as, than

Anthony Scaramucci: (31:55)
A Jerry. And that's true. I accept that.

John Darcie: (31:58)
But, um, I might try to get one of those hoodies from you, but, uh, yeah, John, it's a pleasure to have you on, and it followed you for many years in markets, and it's great that, you know, you were an early adopter in the crypto space and have helped us along our journey, frankly, in terms of adopting it. Uh, last year we made our first big investment into the space. You talked about a theorem and Bitcoin. I think it's a fascinating topic of conversation. You know, Bitcoin is obviously, as Anthony has said on CNBC before the apex predator and the space in terms of market cap in terms of the breadth of the network, but Ethereum is quickly catching up in terms of defy. You talked about doge coin there's there's defied tokens like Eunice swap or sushi swap there's other blockchains that aiming to compete with Ethereum, like Cardona or Solano. Uh, what aspects of the crypto market are you most excited about and using your skills in terms of analyzing order flow and technicals and as well as fundamental adoption, what aspects of that market are you most excited about right now?

Jon Najarian: (32:57)
Well, and thank you, John. Great question. Um, just like with auctions, John, I'm really focused on volume and volatility, those two primarily, but given, uh, the impact that influencers have, uh, it's doubtful that Elon Musk or anybody else could have as much impact on stocks as they have on crypto. Um, now granted, if Elan is on a show smoking a joint, um, that could hurt that stock his stock Tesla, and it did, uh, create a great buying opportunity down to 180 5. And that was before the five for one split. Um, but, um, I think for the most part, uh, we monitor a lot of Reddit and social media. So I would say in this order volume volatility and then social, and I'm counting both Reddit and Twitter, primarily as social. And that's what we're looking at. We've got algorithms that are sitting there, pulling from those, um, and basically putting them on a, uh, on a dial, something as easy as it's not red green.

Jon Najarian: (34:11)
It's not like that kind of stuff, folks, but it's literally like, okay, you know, we're right in the middle right now. Now we're really pushing into bullish territory. There's a lot of bullish commentary and it's matching up with volume and volatility. We're going to be long, whatever that is. Um, and the great thing about cryptos as well is they do trade 24 hours a day. So you can see that surgeon volume and almost all the time, except around those liquidations, John, that surgeon volume, um, is telling you that whales are somebody big, you know, in Bitcoin speak anybody that has a thousand Bitcoin or more, they call it a whale wallet. Um, and those people are probably active at that level when you're seeing volume pick up dramatically. In other words, if it goes from say $150 million worth of trading in a 24 hour period, which isn't a lot in crypto land to all the sudden 500 million or nearly a billion in a 24 hour period, that ramp usually is a great tell as far as where that coin is going.

Jon Najarian: (35:23)
So we're using that. And then we're monitoring those, uh, Reddit and, uh, tweets to see, and obviously what we use as far as it's not terribly complicated, John, but what we're doing is we're waiting the value of the people that are tweeting and out are posting on Reddit so that we don't give every post on Reddit or every, you know, bot on Twitter, the same credence, the same, uh, sway over our upside or downside bias. So when we're seeing a whole bunch of negative stuff or anything out of Ilan, yeah, he's going to swing that needle, but if it's not Ilan and it's just a bot with six followers on Twitter, or just one post, that's only posted eight times in the last a month on Reddit. Yeah. We're probably not as interested. Um, and the algorithm more or less throws those away and is looking for the ones that are really quote unquote influencing price,

John Darcie: (36:27)
Right. We saw a huge explosion retail trading during COVID. There are some theories that, you know, maybe people that were into sports betting when sports shut down, they moved into to online gaming. People at Barstool were, uh, potentially instrumental in that Dave Portnoy. Uh, but you saw this massive explosion, retail trading, somebody like Robin hood, uh, was a big part of that as well, in terms of the game of vacation they provided, uh, for young people to get, get into trading and investing. Do you think that was a positive thing, or are you concerned about some of the risk-taking that occurs now in markets? I know you guys at market rebellion and some of your previous endeavors have been very focused on risk management and education before you get people at diving head first, especially using leverage with things like options in markets, but what is your analysis of where we are right now in terms of market participation?

Jon Najarian: (37:16)
Well, um, and I know you're not dismissing those younger traders either John. So this is once upon a time

John Darcie: (37:24)
I was one of those bright-eyed younger traders until I got plenty of expensive educations and mark.

Jon Najarian: (37:30)
Well, I think it's great that we have so many of these, you know, uh, I forget how many, I think it was 12 million accounts were opened at Robin hood in the first quarter of 2020. I mean, just a crazy number of those are new accounts, funded accounts, crazy number. Nobody had ever seen that before. Not Schwab, not, uh, city, not, uh, uh, E-Trade you could put them all together. They never opened that many accounts in a quarter. Um, but, uh, that does come with some risk, but these folks, like you say, maybe they were hungry for a way to make some money. Um, maybe they were taking extraordinary risks that they really didn't understand. I mean, I'm looking at an article right now on CNBC talking about exactly what I just discussed with Anthony about Bitcoin traders using 101 leverage driving wild swings in cryptocurrencies.

Jon Najarian: (38:28)
Yeah. And they did the same thing in stocks last year, and they did the same thing this year in the likes of AMC or AMC ex or game stop, you know, the poster child for exactly what of an army of, uh, young traders could do. But there's an awful lot of really, uh, smart, thoughtful, um, even if they are trache taking on incredible risks, you know, they're basically saying go bigger, go home. Um, and if you and I didn't have what we already have, John, um, right now I am a singles and doubles hitter. That's what I go for because I don't need to swing for the fence. Um, I've, I've, you know, knock on wood had a degree of success in my career. So singles and doubles, I just would like to just keep building the stack if you will, um, rather than risking the whole stack.

Jon Najarian: (39:24)
But if you're somebody who's 22 years old to 30 years old and you've got, you know, just a little bit saved and all of a sudden the government starts giving you 600 extra bucks a week to stay home on top of the unemployment that you're getting to stay home. All of a sudden you're saying, well, you know, what, if I start using this and what if I pull another 500 out of my savings every month and throw that in here, I could actually swing and see how good I am at following the markets and things like that, that gamification that you mentioned is something that I think made, gave these traders, um, uh, a little of a leg up, instead of it being such a difficult thing to understand all of a sudden they said, well, all I really got to do is say, I think the stocks going up, I'm going to buy a cause.

Jon Najarian: (40:14)
Or I think the stock's going up, I'm going to sell these puts. And it works until they're over levered. And the market makes that move against them and they get liquidated. Hopefully they pull a lot of that money off the table. We know that the guy roaring kitty, um, or deep effing value, um, over in a game stop, we know that he, um, pulled an awful lot of that money off the table eventually. Um, you know, 50, $60 million when you dangle that kind of potential out there in front of a bunch of young traders. Um, they're going to get excited about it and it's been good for trading. It's been good for the New York stock exchange NASDAQ and, you know, obviously Coinbase and all the crypto exchanges and Voyager, a firm that we're involved with has just grown by leaps and bounds because of this interest in, you know, enhancing some of the returns you can get from investors. Right?

John Darcie: (41:13)
The last question I have for you, John is around regulation. So we were talking before we went live about sort of the, uh, the rollercoaster that's taken place in crypto markets over the last two weeks. Part of that was Elon Musk coming out and expressing concerns about the environmental impact of Bitcoin mining. Another piece of it was India potentially taking the next step towards banning and cryptocurrencies, and then China issuing its third crackdown on crypto and taking it even a step further than its prior ban in 2017, basically outlined outlawing Bitcoin mining, as well as basically trying to rid their entire financial system of any crypto asset transactions in the U S you've seen some news in the last few weeks about the Biden administration, maybe taking a more standoffish, uh, tone as it relates to crypto activity. Are you concerned at all about, uh, you know, any regulatory issues, whether it be with Bitcoin or you move down the spectrum to more of these altcoins or where you've seen a lot of, you know, really rampant speculation, uh, based, purely on, you know, social signals and things like that. Where do you see regulation shaking out as it relates to crypto and, and what impact you think it would have on Bitcoin, Ethereum and the rest of the market?

Jon Najarian: (42:24)
Um, uh, another great question. Uh, the real part of that question that I'd like to unpack first, John, is that right now the U S still remains a leader, um, in virtually every financial market. Now, what we wouldn't want to see is Bitcoin, um, get pushed to all off shore exchanges. Uh, so I would hate to see a regulation come down so hard on Bitcoin that people just migrated to these VPNs, again, virtual private networks and trade off shore. They will though, um, as long as the Internet's there, Bitcoin will exist. And most of these cryptocurrencies will trade. You know, you could put in some really draconian measures like death sentences and things like that. Um, not in the United States, of course, but, you know, in jurisdictions where that kind of Totara totalitarian regime could basically dictate if you do this, you could die those kinds of regulations.

Jon Najarian: (43:28)
Yeah. That's got teeth and people would really have to decide if they want to make that risk. But if you just moved Bitcoin and Ethereum and, uh, stellar and EOS and light coin off shore in the United States, like you have with XRP ripple, ripple, doesn't trade here in the United States. Um, it doesn't because they're negotiating some sort of settlement perhaps with the U S government, uh, or one of the regulators in the U S government, if you kick Crip, but a theory rather ripple still trades. And I guarantee you a lot of Americans own it and trade it, even though it doesn't trade here. So it's just one example of people will migrate, um, to where they can trade these assets. And when you look at something like a ripple that was 24 cents back in February and shot to nearly $2, um, and it's, that was one of the top coins in the world at one point, and came all the way back to there.

Jon Najarian: (44:30)
And now breaks back down below a buck again, um, you can't really stop it unless you stop access to the internet, you can't stop it. Could they put other draconian measures like, um, they've already said, you know, if you trade over $10,000 in Bitcoin, the IRS is looking for you. I think most of us realized that the IRS is always looking at what we do when I moved money from a bank account here in the U S to either offshore or onshore exchanges, they're going to follow it. Um, so I'm not trying to play games with the IRS because I get audited pretty regularly. Anyway, John, I don't need more attention. Um, by trying to skirt some sort of rule about holding those cryptocurrencies and so forth on the other hand, um, like I said, I would hate to see us lose our leadership role in the financial markets, by doing something draconian to the trading of Bitcoin, which I think instead should be like the next great asset class.

Jon Najarian: (45:35)
And then a lot of people could certainly use it to hedge, um, currency exposure. They, they could use it to hedge, uh, you know, some of the, uh, uh, risk assets that they'd like to hold on to, but they might like to hold onto them. I mean, as you know, you can already trade apple in cryptocurrency. You can trade a lot of big stocks. Tesla included in cryptocurrency, they're denominated in those currencies and traded it's the same apple that you trade on shore, but the more that you push this stuff off shore, instead of bringing it here, um, the more that we, uh, take down the U S is leadership. And so that's something that I worry about and hopefully that we don't

John Darcie: (46:24)
Well, we think with, uh, with Gary Gensler at the helmet, the STC being enlightened about the digital asset space, having taught a blockchain course at MIT, we think that whatever the outcome is, it's going to be sensible. So we're looking forward to having more regulatory clarity. I think that's the final hurdle for even greater institutional adoption than we've already seen. But, uh, Dr. J uh, Mr. John, and has been great to have you on Anthony have a final word for John before we let him go.

Anthony Scaramucci: (46:49)
Not really, actually I may have, it was very comprehensive, John, I'm a, I'm super grateful for having you on, and, you know, we've got to get you back to salt September 13th, to the 15th at the Javits center,

Jon Najarian: (47:01)
Javelin Senator 13th to 15th folks in person, instead of Vegas in New York, we had to bring

Anthony Scaramucci: (47:09)
Them this year for all those obvious reasons, John, but we'll, we'll be back in Vegas. We just needed to, uh, send a message to our great city.

Jon Najarian: (47:18)
I like that. And, uh, you're a great American for doing it, Anthony,

Anthony Scaramucci: (47:24)
And I'll, I'll see you I'll see you soon. Uh, and, uh, go ahead, Darcie, close it

John Darcie: (47:30)
Out. All right. Uh, thank you everybody also for tuning into today's salt. Talk to learn more about a subject that obviously we have tremendous interest in, which is the digital asset space, as well as learning from John about the way he analyzes markets. I think he's such a student of markets and so great about educating people around risk, um, that as we talked about this preponderance of, of trading and participation in financial markets is a great thing. As long as people get the proper education. So make sure to check out a market rebellion, uh, where John, his brother, Pete provide tremendous education around, uh, understanding markets from all times all types of different vantage points. But, uh, you can access this episode as well as all of our previous salt talks episodes on our website@salt.org backslash talks and on our YouTube channel, which is called salt tube.

John Darcie: (48:14)
We're also active on social media. Twitter is where we're most active at salt conferences are handled. We're also on LinkedIn, Instagram, and Facebook as well. And please spread the word about these salt talks. If you have still a skeptical uncle or, or grandmother or brother or sister, who's looking to learn more about crypto markets, uh, please pass along this conversation that we had with John Glenn, half of it on behalf of Anthony and the entire salt team. This is John Darcie signing off from today's salt talk. We hope to see you back here again soon. Thank you.

Gary Vaynerchuk: The Future of NFTs | SALT Talks #210

“Imagine if Nirvana came out today and said ‘for our earliest fans, we’re going to give away 20% of our royalties in perpetuity if you buy this token for $2K because we don’t want to sign with this label and give up all our rights’… you’re talking about a substantial shift in how economics play out.”

Gary Vaynerchuk is a serial entrepreneur, author, speaker and angel investor. He is the co-founder and CEO of VaynerMedia, a global creative and media agency.

Non-fungible tokens (NFT’s) are digital representations that take up a block of the blockchain that have an underlying smart contract. There will be massive growth in the creation of NFT’s as vehicles for social currency. For example, it could allow a music band to issue NFT tokens that pay royalties to those token-holders instead of signing with a record label. The inevitable flood of NFT’s, though, will force the issuer to foster a community that drives demand. “NFT’s only have so much demand against it, so people are going to be in for some rude awakenings… If you don’t want to take the bag up front from the big brand, you better build an actual community.”

This belief in the future of NFT’s has led to Gary Vee’s own NFT project. 10,225 VeeFriends tokens will be auctioned off and ownership of a token will act as a ticket to VeeCon, a yearly conference that will be hosted over three years.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Gary Vaynerchuk.jpeg

Gary Vaynerchuk

Chairman, CEO

VaynerX, VaynerMedia

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darcie: (00:08)
Hello everyone. And welcome back to salt talks. My name is John Darcie. I'm the managing director of salt, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance technology and public policy. Salt talks are a digital interview series with leading investors, creators, and thinkers. And our goal on these salt talks is the same as our goal at our salt conferences, which our guests today, uh, data fantastic presentation at a few years ago. And we're excited to resume those conferences, uh, in September in New York this year for the first time. Uh, but, uh, our goal at those conferences and our goal on these salt talks is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And we're very excited today to welcome Gary Vaynerchuk to salt talks, Gary V uh, as he's known to many, uh, he is a man who needs no introduction, but I'll give an introduction.

John Darcie: (01:02)
Anyways. Uh, Gary is a serial entrepreneur and he serves as the chairman of Vayner X and the CEO of Vayner media. Uh, Gary is considered one of the leading global minds on what's next in culture relevance and the internet known to many, as I mentioned, as Gary V he's described as one of the most forward thinkers in business. He acutely recognizes trends and patterns early to help others understand how these shifts impact markets and consumer behavior, whether it's emerging artists, e-sports in Ft investing, which is what we're going to talk about here today, or digital communications. Gary understands how to bring brand relevance to the forefront. He's a prolific angel investor with early investments in companies, including Facebook, Twitter, tumbler, Venmo, Snapchat, and most recently Coinbase, uh, hosting today's talk is Anthony Scaramucci, who is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge capital, which is a global alternative investment firm. Anthony is also the chairman of salts. And with that, I'll turn it over to Anthony for the interview

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:03)
And bestselling author and wine connoisseur wine genius. I might add fellow hunt and fish club owner.

John Darcie: (02:11)
You said bestselling author. I thought you were referring to yourself. And I was going to ask you for having bought so many books and put them in your base. I am

Anthony Scaramucci: (02:17)
A best-selling author. If you don't believe me coming to my base copies that I had to buy that's where Darcie was going. Okay. We're back in our offices. I shoved Darcie in the closet. That's why he has that low age geography going there. Okay. But you're still looking good Dorsey, but you're great at explaining things in a simple way. And I want to go right to this, cause this is big in your life right now, in your own words, what are NFTs?

Gary Vaynerchuk: (02:48)
And if these are non fungible tokens, that's what it stands for. They're digital representations that take up a block on the blockchain that references to it's a of data, but has an underlining smart contract underneath it that you can use for amazing creativity. So a couple of things, let me take a step back because that meant very little to everybody. Let me do it my way. And thank you for saying that does a blue check on Instagram and Twitter matter. Cause it's a digital thing, but does it matter? I believe it does. Um, does a fortnight skin matter or roadblocks or, or a game up or did a sheep matter to some of the people that are watching right now that played Farmville? Do digital assets mean something in a world where humans spend so much time in digital? And so what I think we're talking about actually, yeah, that he is social currency, no different than what car you drive, where you live, what clothes you wear.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (03:50)
Because I think what people are missing is one the right now all the hype is around the art and the collectibles. But that's very similar to what I saw with the internet in 95, when people were just focused on search engines and browsers, and it seemed to spot exactly the same path, which is why this web three O thing feels very real. To me, one, the macro about Ft is here to stay books. When, when salt sells tickets in three years, it will be in the form of an NFT, which will then be its ticket, but then becomes a digital asset for the future, which people may have in their public wallets in seven years. And I meet, you know, Darcie at a business meeting and instead of just Googling him or looking at his Instagram, I'm going to look at his public wallet and be like, oh, you've got to solve for seven years. We've got a connection. So I think that there's a very similar thing here brewing, but it is a digital asset. It is a digital asset that is non, that is authenticated on the blockchain, which creates an incredible Providence and, and uh, authenticity layer that is going to matter in our society.

Speaker 4: (05:01)
So I'm an old fogy.

Anthony Scaramucci: (05:04)
Let me see if I can characterize it. You say yes or no at the end of the day, it is an original. And so you have to think about it as a virtual original. So if I've got a piece of art, that's digitized, but I actually have the code that's assigned to it in an NFT. I own that original piece of art, but I owned it in the ether. Is that fair to say

Gary Vaynerchuk: (05:28)
Yes, but I think the thing that everyone, this is what happens when Banksy, you know, isn't that banks, same, same ship people sells. Yep. When, when Mike sells his part for 69 million and when NBA top shot does a good really in dollars, you know, out of nowhere, everyone is so rightfully so, so focused there. Yep. I think the thing for people to understand is why does this really matter? Because your apartment is going to be, this is a ledger. This is a ledger, no different than the, that the county has for your home. This is going to be the underlining infrastructure for contracts. People are going to get married on the blockchain. Their certificate will be an NFT. This is, this is how people are going to do leases, sell their homes and their all the intellectual property in the world is going to play in this ecosystem.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (06:17)
So if you're a music artist, you can, you can sell 20% of your IP upfront through a token, as a pre-sale mixed tape. So that early fan base can be a part of it. Cause it's all gonna be ledgered in perpetuity against every royalty. Imagine if Nirvana came out today and said, Hey, for our earliest fans, we're going to give away 20% of our royalties in perpetuity. If you buy this token for $2,000, because we don't want to sign with this label, right. And give up all our rights. All of a sudden, we've got a scenario where here I am today, every time teen Spirit's playing on Spotify, because I happened to be in the Pacific Northwest in 1989 and believed in that band, I'm retired. That's exactly. I mean, you're talking about a substantial shift in the way economics play out.

Anthony Scaramucci: (07:10)
I think, I think it's, I think it's a brilliant description. Uh, you're a great simplifier of complex things. What do NFTs mean for the culture? Is it good or bad for the culture? Good or bad for business? It's good innovation. So who is good about it? Of course,

Gary Vaynerchuk: (07:28)
There's, there's unlimited things that are potentially bad. It's the human race, you know, we're star wars out here, the dark side and the jetties are very close to each other, but the good always wins in the end. I mean,

Anthony Scaramucci: (07:38)
You and I are on a good side. Okay. And I do know that when my children say to me, okay, one of my kids calls me Darth Vader.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (07:47)
That's another podcast for another day.

Anthony Scaramucci: (07:49)
It terms of artists, athletes, intellectual property in general. Good. Right?

Gary Vaynerchuk: (07:54)
Good for the artist, bad for the people that used to sit in the middle and take huge economics for being in the middle.

Anthony Scaramucci: (08:00)
Right. So, but, but isn't that true about everything with de-centralize finance contracting is the blockchain and the internet and the

Gary Vaynerchuk: (08:12)
Role, this funny little man out internet, we were like, oh, the middleman, the internet was a preview. Blockchain is an extremity. Now the problem is all these artists athletes. They're like, oh, this is awesome. I'm not giving up any of my bag anymore. These people, they, they walked into a buzzsaw. There's another part of it. You have to create demand. It's all cool and awesome that you can keep all the economics, but if you're unable to generate demand, it doesn't matter if you can, a hundred percent of zero is zero.

Speaker 4: (08:44)
So be it consumer

Anthony Scaramucci: (08:46)
Brand guru that you are, how should consumer brands think about their NFT strategy? It depends.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (08:55)
You are. So let's use, let's use high fashion luxury. I think they, you know, they'll probably be the slowest to this space. Even though LVMH has been very aggressive and done a lot of creative stuff already in general, every single brand has the ability to turn these into tokens that forget about the representing the physical item, which I think will become norm. They're going to be able to create events, access every membership card that you've ever thought of is now going to play on this chain because unlike, uh, all the dynamics off chain, there's royalty components when people trade, you know, when you think about the trillions, think about this for a second. The trillions of dollars that are sold every year in collectability. Silliness is the word I'm using a key chain. Look, look at your backdrop, right? Like everything behind you right now after your original purchase.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (09:51)
When that, if you decided to sell that Superman sign that I saved and you sold it on eBay, DC is not making a royalty on that with the blockchain, they will, there is going to be no reason why anybody on earth is not going to make an NFT, either just stand alone or in compassing to the physical item. Because, because they're creating a tangible asset that they can have economics against as a brand, you need to use it as a token to do a field pass to a football game, right. To, to do a BIP. Didn't let's say Louis Vuitton put out 50 gold tokens lbs and sold them for a million dollars, a million. What they could back end into that. This is front row at every fashion show in the world. This is getting the product 50 new products a year, a month before everybody, they can start layering these dynamics, but then we'll get school is when you buy it. Now you're like, I don't, I'm I'm minimalism. Now I'm done with those kind of things. I'm going to sell it for 1.1 million because only 50 in the world, they're still getting, they're getting another derivative bite at the apple instead of issuing another one. And having somebody cancel, this is going to be a very big deal. That is just one tiny example of it. So

Anthony Scaramucci: (11:10)
May the fifth is of significance to you? Yes. 5, 5, 5, 5, 5

Gary Vaynerchuk: (11:14)
Is my favorite number. Yes. Tell me

Anthony Scaramucci: (11:16)
Why and tell me what you're doing on five, five. I'm launching. So the way it's also my wife's birthday, I just love it. And public service announcements, I've got her a great gift and an even better card, uh, partners, the cake, my assistant, who happens to be John Darcie's wife, perhaps she could have bought that card. I just want to make sure that everybody

Gary Vaynerchuk: (11:37)
Knows it's pairing see like the blockchain. Yes. I'm launching a, an NMT project. There's only been two times in my life that I felt those spidey senses that I felt in early January this year about the NMT thing, one in 95, when I saw the internet for the first time in my life. And instead of opening up 800 liquor and wine shops for my dad, like I was planning on doing, I decided I was going to launch wine library.com. I'd never owned a computer. I wasn't a techie kid, but I knew this thing was going to be how humans interacted. The second time was a combination of seeing Friendster my space. And then YouTube was the final piece. And immediately after I saw YouTube, I started a wine show on YouTube reviewing wine. And I had never thought about being a front facing personality. I was 30 years old running a e-commerce wine business.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (12:29)
I was a businessman. Uh, as soon as I saw the NMT thing, I went to work and I spent the last four months. So I'm putting this project together where I've literally doodled, cause I've been doodling my whole life quietly. Um, you know, and it created a bunch of characters and, uh, and I'm standing up my own intellectual property and created, uh, layers of access underneath. And, uh, I'm pretty excited about it mainly for this reason, mainly for the fact that, um, I am going to learn so much about this whole world, uh, through the execution for me, I knew myself. I use Gary V as an, almost like a investigative anthropologist test kitchen for Gary Vaynerchuk, the actual operator and entrepreneur. So for me, that's, what's the biggest thing, um, about this, this project for me is that by the end of this month, I will have a completely different extra layer of understanding when I'm having a conversation with somebody sitting on a billion dollar IP, or when I want to invest in a platform or, um, some other products.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (13:44)
So launching, you know, this thing called [inaudible] dot com, um, is, you know, culmination of my being 45 years old and affected by transformers and thunder cats and DC comics and wrestling like intellectual property has been an obsession. I, Anthony, I actually launched VaynerMedia 12 years ago with the main intent of building the best marketing arm in the world, and then buying the [inaudible] IP and refurbishing it through my contemporary marketing machine. So this is a little bit the reverse. I didn't see NFT coming 12 years ago. Um, I didn't realize that I was going to be able to create intellectual property. Um, what's unique about my, my project is that every single de-friend 10,255 tokens is actually a ticket to V con yearly conference that I'm going to be putting on over a three-year period. So they're getting a three-year ticket. That means they can come to the first year and then decide, you know, what this conference got so hot. Somebody just offered me $12,000 for the token. I'm going to sell it. They're going to make a profit. If I can create enough demand by on a great project. So building intellectual property, building my ambition for the best tech and business and kind of culture conference and, and really taking a swing at tasting new technology.

Anthony Scaramucci: (15:05)
Well, first of all, I wish you the greatest success and luck with all that. I think you're an amazing entrepreneur. I'm going to switch shift gears for a second and Darcie and I are going to be out there. We're going to be buying at least one or two tokens that are featured. So I want to, I want to be a V the friend,

John Darcie: (15:22)
Thank you. Been following all your doodles on, on Twitter. I wonder where that was headed. And now we

Speaker 4: (15:26)
Know you do, but, but, but

Anthony Scaramucci: (15:28)
Here's the thing I want you to talk to the generation that absolutely loves you. Okay. That is a younger generation that are my children. Uh, you know, Kevin O'Leary Mr. Wonderful. And you okay. Are the two people when people say to me, well, young kids, who do they listen to that are contemporaries of mine. It's you? And O'Leary okay. So one, why is that? Okay, what do they see in Gary V that draws them in and love spending time with you being with you, and then what is your messaging to them about entrepreneurship and how do you get them ignited with the fire and passion that you have gap

Gary Vaynerchuk: (16:11)
I'm obsessed with not talking down to anyone ever until I go into the ground. So I think in general, my intuition, I read a lot of direct messages is there's a level of, you know, I don't think they're entitled or lazy, or I think I know unlimited, entitled, and lazy baby boomers unlimited, entitled, and lazy gen X. And you know, like there's just unlimited. You know, I don't like to like paint those 15 to 30 year olds, the way that a lot of other people want to paint. I have compassion for their circumstances. They've lived literally in the global empire of society during its probably tipping point. Like of course they are taking things for granted that we've got an incredible internet based society where 13 year olds can literally make a hundred thousand dollars selling sports cards on eBay. Like they don't live in the same reality as we did.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (17:08)
So I think one, they appreciate that on the flip side, I hate when they're full of and they talk about like being sad when mommy and daddy are paying for their Uber and their Equinox and their rent and they're complaining. And, and so I, you know, honestly this is perfect. We're, you know, it's my mom's birthday on May 3rd. And I just think that me, the persona, especially that they are attracted to is really just my interpretation of how I was parented, which is incredible optimism. And self-esteem building with 100% accountability and no. And so like mom was able to walk that tight rope in a way that I rarely see, have not overcome, like making me feel like a trillion bucks and right. However, everything I did wrong, it was my fault. Like when my baseball team lost and I struck out in a big spot, countable self-esteem accountable, that's right.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (18:08)
Practice. What I call practical optimism, which is optimism, I think is imperative for success and all the cynics. And like, if you think it's over, it is over. Literally if you think you're and like the, like it's over on the flip side, I think unfortunately for a lot of these under thirties, they lived through the great era of parents creating eighth place trophies. And like they lost, we lost the balance of the conversation with them. Like that looked like this, no, you can't be like my, my little guys, like I'm going to be an NBA player. I'm like, brother, listen to me right now. Daddy you up. He did not give you the genetic prowess to have a prayer in this. You want to be an epic B3 point guard and maybe hit a shot and sneak into the NCAA tournament. And like, like maybe if you play every day and lose your mom, like, you know, I think the generation of parents got a little bit there.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (19:04)
And, and, and I think that I've, I've hit a chord with them on the balance of the two. And what I would say to them is when you act, when you fall in love with accountability and patience, all the anxiety that you're feeling right now changes dramatically. When you think it's your fault or what can I do about it? And you realize that you're 26 years old and you have 80 years to live and you don't. And all the rules of like having shipping it out was based on people dying at 40. You have plenty of time. I'm blown away by the lack of patience. And when you live for outside affirmation by putting entrepreneur on your Instagram, because you think that's cool, you're always gonna use when you're looking for cheering, because if you're looking for cheering and you become addicted to the cheering, and even when he gets success, I think what really works for me is I get a lot of cheering when you don't fall in love with it and you can't hear it, then you can deal with the booing because when you get there, you get booing too. And I think these kids are too susceptible to the booing because they're addicted with the cheering.

Anthony Scaramucci: (20:10)
And what about social media? Yeah, you're a Maverick on social media. You're brilliant at it. Um, I'm sure that you deal with your share of haters on social media. You know, every adolescent does. Uh, certainly my children unfortunately, uh, have to deal with it. Anybody that puts themselves out there and performance art as an example, or, you know, in our industry politics, anything, uh, what do you tell the kids there in terms of dealing with the negativity on social media? Um,

Gary Vaynerchuk: (20:41)
If you live your life based on a stranger's opinion of you, let's, let's really actually break this down. A stranger has decided that it was a good use of their time to go to your page, your world and try to tear you down. Really. I tell all my friends, five years old to 500 years old, the same thing, don't be sad for. You have compassion and empathy for them. Like the thought of me spending one minute on somebody else's life to tear them down. It's only a reflection of your own inner unhappiness. And so for me, I think empathy and accountability, you know, I get some stuff and I'm like, oh, okay, I see that adjectives not hitting. Let me take a step back and maybe change that context a little bit. So you can't be like delusional, right? And you can't be like it's, but, but if somebody is being really nasty and there's a lot of that, cause it's easy to be nasty when you can hide, um, they're in a bad spot, they're hurt that person's hurting and, and you should be grateful that you're not spending your time going on people's accounts and on them.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (21:50)
I'm literally grateful when I see, Hey, I'm grateful that I'm not in that place. That I'm grateful that my life doesn't consist of going to other people and trying to tear them down. I'm on the, I think

Anthony Scaramucci: (21:59)
It's well said, but it's, it's something that we have to help these kids with because, uh, you know, they get the food

Gary Vaynerchuk: (22:04)
The way to hit the way to help them. And this is where parents are losing is we have to build proper. Self-esteem not delusional just saying you're the best when the kid knows you're not only speeds up the problem. [inaudible]

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:18)
Realistic. Self-esteem but also resilient. You know, I tell my kids, if you're having a bad day, you think of me getting fired from the white house. Okay. That's a pretty good daycare. Okay. I mean, you know, at the end of the day, the issue

Gary Vaynerchuk: (22:30)
Is that I'll have this. I have this with my too, like when you're their dad, like I can impact everybody way more than I can impact my team. You know, look at me, look at me. That's my kids with me. Right. A hundred percent.

Anthony Scaramucci: (22:43)
They want to see you, Gary. I bring them to your office for the medication. You don't have any brother, let me turn it over to the great millennial, the new genius star at SkyBridge. Okay. My co-host John Dorsey. Do you have

John Darcie: (22:57)
Hope? I was talking about self-esteem you're actually saying nice things about me, Anthony. This is, this is a good change of pace saying nice

Anthony Scaramucci: (23:03)
Things about you is I got you stuffed in the SkyBridge closet. Now that we're back, this is true. Thankfully good about myself,

John Darcie: (23:09)
The hand trucks and the paper towels that I'm next to. Now that we're back in the office and Anthony has reclaimed his, his beautiful corner office there, but you know, uh, I'll uh, I grew up with a humble beginning. Saw I'll maintain my humility here, but I want to go back to NFTs for a second, Gary, and you, you, you have a complete, you know, business empire, including a sports agency. We were talking before we went live about an athlete that you guys were recording. Uh, your agency, you ultimately finished second in that courtship, but I'm curious about, you know, I think athletes are getting wise to what's going on in the NFT space. So when they think about endorsements, they're not just thinking about, okay, Gatorade's to pay me to endorse their drink or something of a traditional nature. He's also someone like Patrick, my homes sold millions of dollars worth of NFTs. And I think increasingly athletes are paying attention to that space as you're pitching an athlete, or it could be an entertainer and you're talking about NFT strategy. It almost seems like something that an athlete has to pay attention to. Now it has to have an NFT strategy.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (24:08)
The problem is my homes and Gronk hit it. Perfect. They hit that Mo that they hit, right. Look what Cuban sold his company for. And had he waited a year and a half, it would have been a totally different outcome. My homes and Gronk hit that fever pitch, you know, money grab luck of the moment and not luck. I hate to use that term. They strategically moved quickly executed, but you have, I mean, Dame Lillard is a much bigger name in culture than wronger than Gronk. But if you look at what's going on right now, athletes, there's an unlimited amount of athletes that have put out their stuff. I didn't see the Trevor Lawrence, you know, launch, but like the, the, the roses, you know, the blooms are off the roads, right? The roses is off the bloom, like it's over the supply and demand is over.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (24:56)
And so athletes have to look at it, but athletes have a substantial issue. And so to artists, for that matter, people get very confused. Like, yes, they should all have a strategy and they should all do it. Mazeltov. Now, go sell it. If you're, you know, if you're a, uh, very famous wide receiver in football, you're not even in the game of conversation. Have you been looked at athletes followings versus one tick talker that dances, they're just not as famous as they think they are the Lea contracts, the logos, they wear carry a lot of weight. So the answer is yes, they should definitely do that. But my, my big push to all of them is have you actually cared about your audience? Have you built a community or do you think just because I'm a corner back in the league by NFT should sell, because they're, let me give you.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (25:49)
And this is something that both of, you know, very well, it was a very simple game called supply and demand. The amount of supply of NFTs that are going to be in the world in 2022 is going to be unlimited every person, every intellectual property, every in hairy idea, everything. And that only has so much demand against it. And I think people are going to get into some rude awakenings of how much of an audience they actually have, which will then John create a whole new game, which is if you want to be a big boy or a big girl, and you want to not take the bag from the big brand, that's paying you upfront, you better build an actual community. Cause you're going to get humbled real quick. Right.

John Darcie: (26:31)
Do you think, you know, there's, there's froth in the NFT market today. You mentioned about the timing of the HMA Holmes and the bronc drops we're right around the time when things were just going crazy. I mean, NBA, top shots, you alluded to it. You know, those things just very ordinary highlights that were commons were going for significant amounts of money. That market has cooled off. I've been on NBA top shots. And the way I think about it now is just investing in things that you're truly passionate about. Do you think that, that there's going to be less of a shift, uh, or more of a shift away from speculation in the world of NFTs and more passion investing, passion buying, or how do you think that space is going to evolve?

Gary Vaynerchuk: (27:06)
Oh, I think 98% of the projects that come out in 2021 will not be good investments. Like, so I would consider that froth. I mean, I'm not a free guy, but you know, that sounds like crap. And by the way, that might be, I mean, yeah, I think, I think we're in for a rude awakening now. It feels John you're too young for this, but us, the old dogs like me MOOC. We know this when the internet bubble on the market collapsed, right collapsed in April, March, April, 2000, everybody came out and said, see internet fad, blah, blah, blah. And what was really happening was it was the most significant consumer trend of our time. It was just that people rush to making a quick bag. And that's what we're seeing in NFTs. You know? So 90% froth on the flip side, I'll give you one, I own 52 of them.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (27:57)
There's 10,000 of them. I think crypto punks is going to end up being one of the great investments of the alternative modern market. They were the first NMT project on the Ethereum chain, right? ERC 20 tokens that inspired the ERC 7 21 protocol. There's an O genus to them. They're already $65,000. Ethereum's current price as a floor price, right? So they're not inexpensive by any matter, but only 1% of the world, if that is really up to date to how big and how this is going to all play out, you can see how that's going to compound. So I think it's a really interesting time if we're talking MFT, investing in individual tokens from just a collectible standpoint, I think what we spent the majority of this upfront on, and definitely what my project's built on is the token can represent real life stuff in its contract.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (28:47)
And I think that is going to absolutely explode once people calibrate, oh, this isn't a famous person holding up a photo and selling off back an FTE. This is about real life tangible value. Oh, by the way, some of the most thoughtful things will like the next Pokemon will be created originally as an NFT. And then go on to be something very meaningful though. You know, the way every Pokemon was a card game, John and a video game, that's not how IP was built in 1957. It was built through cartoons. It was built through right toys. So like things, things, things evolve. And I think that's a little bit of a recap of where I see this space right now. Yep.

John Darcie: (29:28)
You, you alluded to cryptocurrencies a little bit. You talked about the Ethereum blockchain. Ethereum has been on fire in the light, even in the last couple of weeks, it's up over 50%. Bitcoin is obviously up several hundred percent over the last year or so. Um, and we're investors in Bitcoin through SkyBridge. And I know Anthony and I personally have some Bitcoin holdings. You've talked about how you're more enthusiastic about the NFT side of things. And you are necessarily about the cryptocurrency side of things. Where do you see the cryptocurrency world moving? And you've also touched on the environmental impact and concerns you have around that. So how do you look at cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum and others, as well as the environmental context of that?

Gary Vaynerchuk: (30:07)
My, my enthusiasm comes from my knowledge base. So I don't really have a strong point of view on a cryptocurrency being a better investment asset than an NFT. I understand MFT because of nostalgia, collectability so much more than trading just on currency. And I also know that the utility aspect of being able to use the, the currency in real world is going to be a huge factor. And or, and so I, I like to stay in my lane. So this is not, my statements have not been a, oh, I think NFTs will be a better investment. They may not be even close. I do. I do think NFTs as a whole is the whole thing. Whereas currencies are fragmented just like individual, uh, NFTs are fragmented. So I think as a whole, it's just going to be civilization, right? You're going to have currencies and you're going to have assets and that's how our world lives.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (31:02)
So I think they can play out evenly that way. So to me, the NFT statement is more about, oh, I really understand how people interact with, with, you know, social currency, like human psychology of why they need it, and definitely on the collectible and the rate of value, as far as the environmental, when you, you see a ready to advancements in four minutes in the scheme of things on L to, you know, technology and, and, and proof of stake, and like, it's unbelievable to me how quickly technology moves, right? As people rightfully start bringing up concerns around the environmental aspects at the rim itself is evolving to its entire, you know, adjustment to the need of that much energy. You have unlimited incredibly interesting chains popping up that are, you know, it built in a manner where they're dramatically more eco-friendly. And I actually think some of the biggest companies in the world are going to be affected by this because when the blockchain ecosystem kind of quote unquote cleans up its energy game, cause it is, cause it's getting pointed with that.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (32:12)
You know, Amazon services is an interesting impact, uh, Netflix, like, you know, I think it'll be interesting to see where this actually takes us to other places. It's really easy for a lot of people to say, oh, look at that thing over there. Cause then they're not playing in it. If we're going to, you know, all of a sudden that same person, when you tell them, you know, you're seven hours that you're watching Netflix, you know, a weekend is something to talk about. So it's going to be interesting to see how it plays out from what I can tell and is not my biggest depth of expertise. I've been very impressed with the speed of new chains popping up that are playing on that space. And then at the room itself, getting to L two level two kind of dynamics that are going to be addressing a plus it's core, oh, genus around proof of stake, proof of work, addressing those aspects,

John Darcie: (33:01)
Switch gears a little bit. And we try to ask this question to everybody we've had on, we started this salt talk series early in the pandemic when we realized we weren't going to be able to do our conferences, but we still wanted to have these fun conversations with creators investors, entrepreneurs about what you learned during the pandemic. You know, I think for a lot of people at crystallize in their mind, the move to the digital economy and the digital world that, that crystallize in their mind NFTs or, or work from home and all the implications that has on our society. Uh, what did you learn? What are some of your biggest takeaways, uh, about business, about life, uh, that you've gleaned from this time during the pandemic,

Gary Vaynerchuk: (33:40)
It was less about learning and more about affirming my greatest belief, which is that during times of adversity, people get exposed. And so, and not in a negative way, exposed in all different ways. I think that you saw the acceleration of everybody being their true self. So if you were negative and pessimistic, you know, you became more, um, if you were accountable and were ready, you know, some people saw this, you know, as, from a business standpoint, from a family standpoint, take away the incredible devastating aspects of the serendipity of who got sick and didn't die. Those, those are, that's not a whole different level. You know, that that's a variable that is, is devastating. And should we put in a category on itself, but in the day to day, what you saw was there are certain people that are wartime generals, and there's certain people that are peacetime generals, and I've always believed that.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (34:39)
And you know, I've already had two little moments in my career. Nine 11 was really difficult for me. You know, our business just started, our entire business was wall street in the scheme of things on the wine business front. And there was a lot going on there. And then obviously the 2008 recession, you know, adjust or just starting up VaynerMedia and the wine business. And it was a lot to go through. And this was the third chapter of like not fraught, the exciting, easy everybody's winning. See players look like superstars. And I think this one probably had the biggest toll because it was a mental game, right? People are encapsulated, there was no escapism for a lot of people outside of alcohol and drugs. You know, it was like really, you know, some of that kind of real stuff, John. So I think, you know, for me it was less about learning and it was probably the final nail in the coffin for something that I've always believed, which is things accelerate during times like this. And I watched from afar, forget about me. I observed so many during this time and it became very obvious me on that truth.

John Darcie: (35:39)
Do you think the world is going to go, go back to the way it was pre pandemic? You know, you talked about New York city. You're proud new Yorker

Speaker 4: (35:47)
In a sense. Yeah. It can't

Gary Vaynerchuk: (35:49)
Because it wouldn't be in the same place. If there was no pandemic two years later, that's just not how it works, but something of this size, oh, I think it's a major change. I think people are actually underestimating it. You know why people are very basic in the way they think about this. Is it going to go back? They're like, oh, are we going to travel? Are we going to go to the office? That's like nothing. That's like a tiny, tiny part of this. We have formed an enormous new consumer behaviors. I mean, doing a zoom or hangout, like this feels incredibly normal now for everybody, which means it will happen. Like every one of us is doing one less trip for one meeting and we're going to do it like this because we're going to every one of us has picked up on a new app, a new behavior, a new purchase, a new interest, a new relationship. I mean like, you know, everything, everything has changed because this is a major global event.

Anthony Scaramucci: (36:45)
Now look like will Smith though. Is that something I should be worried about?

Gary Vaynerchuk: (36:49)
You look great. Actually, I'm actually extremely jealous of how you look.

Anthony Scaramucci: (36:52)
No I'm saying that will will Smith and I both the caring that dad bought

Gary Vaynerchuk: (36:56)
Now, listen, I think, I think you look great. I think he looks great too. Um, I really practical.

John Darcie: (37:02)
Self-esteem Gary. Not, not false.

Anthony Scaramucci: (37:05)
You giving me false hope. Gavin. I love you.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (37:07)
Listen, I can't see the rest of your body here. I see the face and the hair. I mean. I wish I had that. That's an Italian chia pet. That hair has been your strength. I didn't, I didn't grow up in the Ukraine that Eastern European it's going to go away real fast. Anthony, come on. I think, uh, I think that, um, I think everything's changed. And what I mean by that is many things will go back, but John people will be doing things that they don't even realize that they've changed on because it's such a change to our behavior.

John Darcie: (37:41)
I want to finish with a final word on V friends. This episode, we're, we're taping it on May 3rd, full transparency. It's airing on May 5th as of 8:00 AM Eastern time this morning. If you're watching this episode V friends we'll be live, how do people engage with that project? How do they buy V friends? What are the mechanics act like? You're talking to a five-year-old or a 65 year old.

Anthony Scaramucci: (38:01)
What if the opening price for V Fran, you think of me friend coin.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (38:05)
So the lowest tier cause there's a lot of different tiers is a three Ethereum, which now is like 9,000 bucks, but is on a Dutch auction. Anthony, I was concerned that I had enough of a big base of people with wealth, that I was worried everyone was going to get shut out. So I went Dutch auction. I kept all the pricing and it actually descends as the time goes down. Um, so it goes from three to 0.5, Ethereum and it's descending curve. They go to be friends.com, John, they connect their wallet. So starting right away, I know 99% are like, what? So this is where you need a wallet, Mehta mask, uh, any wallet that's compatible with, with a wallet connect that this, you know, a lot of people have a Coinbase, but they don't, you know, but they don't have an active wallet to buy NFTs.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (38:54)
And so you'll need one of those. Um, and then once you connect it, you just literally do it just like a credit card. You click the button. Now what scares a lot of people is like, when you pay a little gas fee in and it takes a little bit, people are used to immediate now with credit cards and all that. So people buying their first set of tea are always a little scared. Cause like, did I just w you know, you see it all the time. Even like, technically sound people like, wait a minute. I don't see the money in my account, but I don't see the token. And so there's a little bit of that that goes on with it. But, but you know, what's fun for me is I launched wine library.com in 1995, excuse me, 1986, and actually launched the 97 and built a 96.

Gary Vaynerchuk: (39:29)
People were scared, crapless John, to put a credit card into the computer. They thought it would get stolen and used. And so we're living it all over again with these crypto wallets, non-custodial wallets, us being in control of all those dollars. There's all these new things like 12, 12 word phrases from meta mask. Obviously, top shop decided to go Fiat and build a layer there. And there's a lot of, you'll see a lot of projects that you'll be able to use a credit card. For me, it was important to be very crypto native to this project. I wanted to be an authentic Ethereum project, and I wanted to educate people how to really use ether for execution.

John Darcie: (40:07)
Gary Vaynerchuk is a pleasure to have you on salt talks. Anthony have a final word for dairy before we let him go.

Anthony Scaramucci: (40:12)
I'm one of his huge, his fans, okay? I'm not a millennial. I'm not a kid that just graduated from college, but I'm still a Gary V follower. And I am a huge fan. And I got to tell you, Gary, you're an inspiration of a lot of people. So keep doing what you're doing. And I will be a proud owner of a Gary V V friends. I can't wait to see what you get. Uh, Darcie's going to explain it to me cause he's more tech savvy.

John Darcie: (40:41)
We're going to go shopping on my

Anthony Scaramucci: (40:43)
Credit card numbers. I know that's going to be really bad for me, but the good news is he dresses like. So you can only spend so much just don't give it to your wife Darcie, and I'll be fine, but I will be owning a V card. Uh, today's broadcast May 5th. Before the end of the day, I will be owning a V frame V friend token. I can't wait. And I'll be a proud owner

Gary Vaynerchuk: (41:05)
Of that. Thank you brother. Thank you so much. And I'm going to work really what I did really smart, I think. And we'll see if history proves it out is I created all these off the chain dynamics to create the economy. When that first conference, you know, John, I have the advantage of seeing where these all lay out at knowing what people paid for it and then producing the event in reverse. Right? So I just have to understand what they went in for make sure that I crushed that first conference. And then that gives Anthony the ability after it happens. If he wants to make a little profit, he's been good at this throughout his career. He can transact. He's a trader by heart. So I got to put them in the right position so that I'm going to be a buy in. I'm going to be a hot Hoddle. I love it. All right, man. Thank you. I got to run

John Darcie: (41:51)
And thank you everybody for tuning into today's salt. Talk with the great Gary Vaynerchuk. Just a reminder. If you missed any part of this talk or any of our previous salt talks, you can access them on our website. It's salt.org backslash talks or on our YouTube channel, which is called salt tube. A we're on social media. We're most active on Twitter at salt conference, but we're also on LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook. And please spread the word about these salt talks. We always like to start every conversation with the primer so that anyone, no matter how far along they are on their crypto journey or their NFTE journey can learn a little bit about what NFTs are or whatever subject matter we're talking about. They can start from zero and we hopefully did that today. So please spread the word about these salt talks, including this talk with Gary. Uh, but on behalf of Anthony and the entire salt team, this is John Darcie signing off from salt talks for today. We hope to see you back here again soon.

Willy Woo: The Bitcoin Forecast | SALT Talks #208

“Conservatively, I think Bitcoin will have $10-$50 trillion market cap in ten years.”

Willy Woo is a leading on-chain analyst, a new field that extracts market intelligence signals from Bitcoin’s blockchain. He writes the Bitcoin Forecast which is the most popular paid newsletter in the crypto industry.

Bitcoin exists on the public blockchain, so every transaction is visible and from that ledger an on-chain analyst can make informed predictions related to the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin’s volatility continues to decrease as more of the population is exposed to the asset and scale grows. There has been a movement towards long-term Bitcoin investing which has helped drive the asset’s bull market. “We’ve seen a net flow of coins away from participants who are traditionally just speculating or buying for the short-term and then selling. These new investors are coming in and locking up coins [long-term].”

There is a lot of leverage in the current Bitcoin cycle. If the price starts to teeter, then there could be a sell-off that leads to a bear market. Though, if institutional capital moves into Bitcoin at the end of the year, then the price will run up even higher.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Willy Woo.jpeg

Willy Woo

Author

The Bitcoin Forecast

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darcie: (00:07)
Hello, everyone. And welcome come back to salt talks. My name is John Darcie. I'm the managing director of salt, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance technology and public policy. Soul talks are a digital interview series that we started in 2020 with leading investors, creators and thinkers. And our goal on the salt talks is same as our goal at our salt conference series a which we're resuming by the way in September of 2021 in New York, Willie, I don't know if you'll be able to make it, uh, flying in from Hong Kong, but we'd love to have you there. And that's to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And we're excited to bring you the latest in our series of salt talks on crypto digital assets and Bitcoin with the great Willie.

John Darcie: (00:54)
Woo. Uh, if you're in the crypto space at all, and you don't follow Willy, I don't know where that, what rock you're living under basically. And if you don't follow crypto and you're looking to learn more about it, there's no one better to follow both his writings and his Twitter feed and everything he puts out. Uh, then Willy will, uh, Willy as an on chain analyst, a new field that extracts market intelligence signals from Bitcoin's blockchain. He writes the Bitcoin forecast, which is the most popular paid newsletter in the crypto industry. Again, I couldn't recommend that newsletter highly enough. And I think Brett, our host today will echo that sentiment hosting today's talk is Brett messing. Who's the president and chief operating officer at SkyBridge capital, which is a global alternative investment firm. I would say, Brett is sort of our crypto enthusiast in chief.

John Darcie: (01:40)
And I would actually revise that to say our Bitcoin maximalist and chief he's very much a Bitcoin guy, although a fan of everything that's going on in the ecosystem. Uh, and with that, I'll turn it over to Brent for the interview. Thanks John. Willie, thanks for joining us. I think we're going to have some fun today. It'll be educational. I'm going to teach part of our discussion with your answer from Ryan will explain this or explain this later to our, uh, to our, our, our, uh, our fans here. Um, before we hop into the fun stuff, can you explain, and I am a subscriber and do echo John's, uh, suggestion that people should do. Likewise, can you explain what I'm chain analytics are? Because I think, again, for those of us that are traditional investors, these are just not tools that we had or are just, we're not sort of generally familiar with. So if you can just provide a quick one-on-one and then we'll jump into the fun stuff.

Willy Woo: (02:36)
Yeah, sure. Um, Bitcoin is quite unique, um, as in that it's got a public blockchain. So every transaction that we see is totally visible, um, on that ledger. So there's this whole process where we can pull that data and analyze it and essentially get, um, like demand and supply, um, from different investors coming in and out of Bitcoin. Um, you know, it turns out there's a lot of signal in there. You can make, um, forecasts and predictions. You can diagnose what's happening with the network at any time. Um, like recently we just had a massive drop in the hash rate when there was a big power outage in China affecting minors. So you could see, um, all sorts of, um, you know, things that happen, um, on the ledger. And, um, within the matrix of the network, you, you

John Darcie: (03:26)
Mentioned the, the, uh, what happened in China with the mining going offline. I think the thing that paid people paid more attention to was we had a bit of a, you know, a flash crash, if you will, this weekend, right where we had about a 15% decline in half an hour. And as we taped today on April 22nd, we're trading, you know, at 54,000 or so down from, you know, a high of 63,000. Um, can you talk about sort of that decline, what you think triggered it? Um, uh, yeah, I I'd be curious what your insights are. Sure.

Willy Woo: (04:04)
I'm like, yeah. Where we're trading in, um, sort of the high range of 60, 60 to 62,000, um, uh, like a few weeks ago. And, um, you know, it's, it was, it was trading in a near all time high and whenever we're at an all time high trades, like to go long because, you know, there's no resistance overhead and the whole market was very highly leveraged. Um, there was more, um, open interest contracts in the derivative markets than we've seen any time in this year. And so when, um, you're in a situation where, um, the market's highly levered, it's very emotional. And so what happened in China was, um, there was, um, a power sort of outage to China. Um, like China is, um, the Chinese power companies were, uh, undergoing our safety inspection. And so they look like, um, the, the miners in China, which some estimates of between 25 and 40% of the, um, mining power on the Bitcoin network is located in this particular area.

Willy Woo: (05:10)
Um, these, these miners went offline and that went on offline at a very critical point, um, because, uh, essentially the, the Bitcoin network and balances, you know, the, the amount of hash power, these miners throw at the network with the difficulty adjustment. Um, so this sort of keeps everything can check. So our block times keep being processed every 10 minutes. And so the difficulty just went up and within, um, like something like 12 hours of that difficulty adjustment, um, the miners, uh, went offline and let part of China. So we had a reduction of, um, compute power thrown on it, the network, um, just at a time when we needed it for this higher amount of compute that, um, is normally, um, thrown at it. So immediately the, um, the network started to slow down, um, the amount of the amount of mining, the compute, um, was not sufficient to balance off the difficulty.

Willy Woo: (06:15)
And so block time started to slope down and can imagine if, um, hash power starts to drop out of the network. Um, and there's a, there's always been this correlation between hash power and price. Um, you know, we're in this highly leveraged zone and, um, speak later sold off. And, um, and so, yeah, it was, it was a sell off that was quite, um, unprecedented for this year. And there, uh, nearly 5 billion, um, contracts got liquidated, um, a hundred lowers. Our million accounts were liquidated across, across the whole ecosystem. Um, if you were to include, um, the entire crypto asset space, it was nearly $10 billion of liquidation. So we had a big flash crash. So, I mean,

John Darcie: (07:07)
I can put that into layman's terms is what we really have is where we have people who were levered right. 20 to a hundred, a one, right. And that as the price starts falling, right, you have people that get sold out and that puts pressure on the market, which then sells out more people. Right. And then you get this sort of cascading effect. Is that, is that really the that's, that's the dynamic you're describing, right, exactly.

Willy Woo: (07:33)
It's a, we call it a long sweet squeeze, um, either, um, you know, if you're, if you're, um, if you were trading on leverage you're esentially, um, buying assets with money, you don't have. And so liquidation is essentially the bank foreclosing on you. Um, so, you know, when that happens, your entire positions get sold and that's dumped onto the market. And obviously that pushes the price down and then it sort of cascades to the people below you with, you know, with their risk limits, see a little bit below, and that just creates this chain reaction in the whole thing starts collapsing. And, um, until, until everyone's liquidated, um, and then the price bounces back up. So, I mean, so

John Darcie: (08:15)
We do a weekly Bitcoin show because there's just so much news in Bitcoin. One of the things we someone asked yesterday was, you know, how is the market different today than it was in 18? And the answer I gave, which would be curious to your reaction and tie it back to this is in 18, it seemed like everyone was speculating people, right? We're buying Bitcoin to sell it at another price to make money, to go buy stuff with, right. There's this sort of idea of hobbling or being like an investor, I think really hadn't taken hold. And I, and I'm not going to tell you as an institutional investor, we own, you know, $600 million or so of Bitcoin we're investors. Right. We, we haven't sold any Bitcoin. Right. You know, we deal with the ups and downs. Um, but it does seem that there's still, uh, and I don't know what percentage of the market right. Is composed of speculators. Right. And price action tends to be driven by the marginal buyer or seller, I guess. I just like your reaction to how the market composition today versus what it used to be. And, you know, again, is it speculators that are driving the market or is it this institutional adoption that we're seeing? Um,

Willy Woo: (09:30)
Yeah, the market's completely different from 2018. Um, maybe, well, 2018 was a bear market. Right. So then I'm sorry. So in 2017,

John Darcie: (09:40)
I mean, when I, when I say that

Willy Woo: (09:43)
[inaudible] was, um, you know, Bitcoin had a lot of, um, exchange activity, but very little of it was, um, leave it. Um, we didn't have well-developed, um, futures markets, uh, the leverage you could get was on margin, so borrowing rather than, um, derivatives. And so, um, the, the, the price was more or less, um, yeah, I would say it's less, less leave it. Um, but I'd say also right now, um, you know, we've got this very large dominant derivatives market. Um, like the I'm just looking here. Um, the normally derivative director's market is, was much, much higher than spots, sometimes five to 10 times higher. Um, we've just flushed out a lot of the duress of traders. So, uh, even now post that flush, um, the, to volume is 50% higher than what we're seeing on spot volume. Uh, I would say, you know, you'd say you might think that, um, the derivative market has a lot of price control over, um, Bitcoin, but actually that's not entirely true.

Willy Woo: (11:03)
It has a very, um, like short term dominance, you know, because like, if you're going to buy Bitcoin on margin or, um, it's, you're, you know, you're there, whatever you buy, you're going to have to sell out sooner or later because it sets a short term trade. And so ultimately what's really important. And, um, this, um, it is the long-term investors who are coming into buy and hold, whether they're coming into buy and accumulate or whether they're selling. Ultimately, when we're looking into the weeks and months ahead, that's going to determine the price of Bitcoin, essentially the demand and supply this, that, um, dominated by the long-term investors. And this is what we're looking at on chain. Um, we can actually see what's happening so much in terms of the trade positions on chain. We can't see any of that. You have to look at data coming off the exchanges, but, um, whatever happens in the short term, even if traders are shorting. Um, and when you see, uh, like long-term investors coming in to buy and accumulate, you know, that it's going to be the traders that are going to get ripped. Um, they cannot, um, continue to short and sell off into the demand that's coming from long-term investors. So

John Darcie: (12:28)
You, you raised an interesting point. Um, you know, there's a lot of discussion that the influx of institutional capital is going to reduce the volatility of Bitcoin. I actually don't happen to share that view, which seems to be consensus. And I hadn't really thought about what you just said, which is that we have much more leverage in the system today than we did in 17. So that makes me feel more strongly that, you know, we're a ways away before Bitcoin between us becomes a less volatile asset. We're w what's your view on that?

Willy Woo: (13:06)
Yeah. Um, I've run a projection on volatility. I've got the volatility of Bitcoin since the markets first opened in 2009. Um, and if you plot there on a log scale where, um, you know, originally the volatility was over a hundred percent over a 60 day period. Um, the, it is coming down, there's coming down, it's a decay, there's kind of like a half-life of decay and most people will not notice it, um, because they're only looking in the last few months with last year, but if you plot this over the long-term scale, we're looking, um, I carry number off hand. I think it's about an a decade give another dozen years. Um, that's actually on track to cross under the peak volatility of USD Euro, um, which is quite surprising. Um, but that's, that's what happens when you, you met this over the long term, um, this, this asset classes still very, very much in its infancy. Um, you know, like it's taken us 12 years to get to some, somewhere between two and two and a half percent of the world population having exposure to it. We've just broken $1 trillion of capitalization. Um, it seemed to get a lot bigger and as we get that kind of scale into the system and that kind of capital, it will reduce and volatility. And we have seen that for 12 years. Yeah.

John Darcie: (14:49)
I, I guess, I guess when I say the volatility not being reduced, I I'm speaking more in a noticeable way in the next one to three years. I definitely agree with you, you know, when, if you scope out the time to a decade, you know, I certainly agree. Um, well,

Willy Woo: (15:07)
I I'd say I've been seeing the volatility over the last say three years reduce as well. Now, the reason for there is there, I think I'm very, I think very strongly, like in 2018 we had very high volatility because, um, all of the leverage was essentially one exchange. It was unregulated called BitMEX and there was a lot of, um, kind of a few being trading that market. You could see a lot of, um, maybe call it trader games where, um, you know, the stock positions, you know, the defensive lines where people would exit the positions they were being hunted, um, through, uh, essentially, um, you can either call it manipulation or you could, you could call it game theory, like trading, where you're pushing the price in a particular direction to, to, um, take out traders. Um, that was very evident. Um, I used to say, um, the short-term price section of Bitcoin was essentially a random walk, um, to liquidate the most traders on BitMEX.

Willy Woo: (16:17)
And, um, obviously in their kind of here, you would see this ridiculous amount of volatility where you have these works of price going up, um, you know, whatever, it was hundreds of dollars in minutes. And then I would revert back down as traders were being liquidated and the price action was the, it's like a square wave, like these bats that would go up down and very choppy. And, um, now we're in the Sierra where, you know, you've got like 20 drift of exchanges and most of them are playing very nicely. Um, but Nick's, um, now a very much minority of it. You've got the CME, which is wholly unregulated. Um, so there's less volatility just in the sheer mechanics of, um, the, um, the industry, um, the infrastructure there for, for, um, for trading these derivatives. Um, and then when you add to that, um, this, this kind of 20, 21 year telling a 2020, where we've had very, very large spot demand coming in from institutions.

Willy Woo: (17:25)
Um, we're yeah, we're, it's, it's, it's limiting the downside, um, sell off from, um, what you'd normally expect, um, from derivatives. Um, so, you know, I, I keep in mind, you know, this kind of idea where you've got an organic price of a bit coin supported by a investors, and that can be modeled using on chain data, and you can model that quite closely. And then you can measure the actual price of the coin, which is really, um, the Terman and pat, um, by the speculators. And so you've got the speculative, um, premium that, that happens. And whenever the price gets close to that floor price at organic price, um, it's very difficult to squeeze the price below that valuation. The only time I've seen that happen was in, um, you know, the early part of last year when we hit the COVID of the event where all Mac had sold off. And it, it did momentary drop below that for a few weeks until all of a M deleveraging had completed. Um, so, um, yeah, I think, I think the volatility is dropping, um, and it's just from the sheer amount of demand coming in from, um, institutions currently. Yeah.

John Darcie: (18:50)
I think, you know, we have a, we have an ETF application before the sec, so I'm sort of conversing in some of the terms that are important to them. I think they would use a less polite word and say that the market was subject to manipulation years ago. And of course we're arguing that with the maturation of the market, um, that, you know, it's just not as susceptible to it as it was, you know, when it was cause I, I concurrent still, we're still in, you know, a very young asset class, but, you know, it's growing up a lot, you know, over the last four or five years. Um, can you speak to sort of the, just the state of the market today, and maybe you can tie in why I opened our session with a 1987 song by Rick Ashley, and maybe, uh, maybe tie that to, you know, what your forecast is, which I think, uh, I think our listeners would, would enjoy hearing.

Willy Woo: (19:49)
Yeah. It's, um, we're seeing currently and unprecedented supply shock. Um, so normally you see this kind of, um, this kind of depletion in inventory on spot exchanges is, um, essentially like the long-term buyers come in and accumulate and move those coins into a cold storage. Um, and this kind of buyer is kind of the smart money buyer that buys in early, um, before, you know, the price starts rocketing, you know, when you take a lot of the supply out of the market, it does rock it up. And that happened in 2017 and the sort of one to two and a half thousand dollar ban before we rocketed up to 20,000 and the, the following three quarters of 2017 and, you know, their depletion of the smart money coming in, um, that lasted no more than five months. And like this time we're at, what is it?

Willy Woo: (20:54)
I don't know, is it 13 months already? There's just so how much coins are being scooped off the exchanges and, um, you know, no who do a lot of the on chain metrics. And, and they've got a metric where we look at the, um, the wallets on the exchanges. I mean, not while it's on the network and we cluster them and we figure out, um, essentially who are the different participants and we look at them and we go, is this person a highly liquid person who seems to buy and sell, buy and sell. And then we have the, what I call the Rick Astley's of this world who buy their Bitcoins and we'll never let it down. You know, they just keep buying and buying with value, much history of selling and very similar to their supply shot. We're seeing of coins moving off the exchanges.

Willy Woo: (21:45)
We're seeing these Rick athlete, um, genre of, of, of accumulators, of, of investors that are buying and holding, um, coming in very strong. So we're seeing a net flow of coins from, um, participants that there have been traditionally more or less speculating or buying over the short term and in selling, um, maybe they are like traders that trade in and out of old coins. Uh, but essentially these new people, the Ric athletes are coming in and they're just buying a locking up the coins. Um, and so that's been a very big driver of this bull market that, um, there's been strong buying, um, and even like we can measure the size of the purchases and the movement of their capital. And, um, you know, a lot of the conversation has been about institutional investors. Um, that's true. Yeah. Also, um, I am thinking that there's a lot of high net worth investors coming in here coming to buy it.

Willy Woo: (22:49)
And, you know, slugs are $1 million at a time. Um, and we saw that, um, very stressful in the sort of first two months of 2021. Uh, so yeah, I think it's these guys institutions, the, um, high net worth guys that are coming in and scooping it up. They tend to store on, um, into Coldstone wallets, which I'm a very visible on chain. Um, whereas retail, um, which, um, you know, that just started to come in the last two to three weeks. Um, lot of retail numbers are going up, um, retail teams to store the coins on exchanges. Like the Coinbase is of this world. Uh, and that's less visible on the blockchain obviously because they don't take off the exchanges. Uh, but we are seeing, um, a lot of numbers claim lately with, um, more retail type. So

John Darcie: (23:46)
You, um, uh, recently raised your price target from two 50 to 300, um, I guess, can you put a timeframe on that? Can you talk about, you know, how you get to that, how you derive that and you know, what drives that?

Willy Woo: (24:03)
Yeah, it's a, it's a very, um, kind of dynamic, um, like model and there, um, it uses, you know, what we called mean reversion, essentially a moving average, and also I'm moving average of, uh, of the price of Bitcoin. And, um, if you do that every single top that, um, Bitcoin's experienced and it's 12 year history, um, it's, it follows a particular trajectory and, um, you know, to get a target, you kind of have to get an idea of where the top will be, um, when a real hit that, um, that they align essentially the all time moving average across a multiplier, their model, um, is looking like it is shooting for three to 400, even higher. Just really depends how the price section of the coin acts over the next, um, you know, half, half of the year. Um, but so perfectly we, in all past cycles, we've seen Bitcoin top out around the December, um, at least the fourth quarter of, of the year after the havening.

Willy Woo: (25:19)
Um, and you know, like Bitcoin is like this assay that's very, very much locked into an algorithm where every four years we have a happening, um, where the inflation rate of the canoe coins minted into the supply gets halved. And that creates this, um, like reduction in south pressure by one half and so seamlessly that gives us a little shove on the price. If you've got half of them out of S sell power from new coins being mined, um, you get a bullish in pulse and, um, in all the past cycles that it seems that that bullish and pulse manifests into this crazy Brenner. You know, the last one was, um, 29, 2017, took us from a thousand to $20,000, um, and tends to Peter out around the fourth quarter, around December. So ballpark in December, um, that top cap model of mine, um, it could be anywhere in the three to 400,000 range and might even go higher, but we need to see how it performs over the next six months.

John Darcie: (26:31)
Okay. I want to dive on into this ruling. So I'm going to challenge a little bit here. Um, so, and I'm wearing a Bitcoin hat, so, you know, just remember I'm super Polish as I challenged you, but it seems to me whenever I've seen a great trade, that's so obvious they eventually go away. So just as an example, last summer, we look very hard at the grayscale arbitrage, which was a fantastic trade and we passed on it, which was probably a little bit of luck, but it just seemed too obvious, felt like everyone was doing it. And whenever I've seen that, it just means that you're sort of late in the cycle for that, that sort of trade, the obvious trade in Bitcoin that everyone seems to have is, well, this cycle is going to be like a last, like, when are you going to sell, what is it going to be December?

John Darcie: (27:20)
Is it October? And my experience tells me that this cycle is going to be different one way or the other, like maybe we've taught maybe we'll top in July, or maybe we're going to just blow through December and just keep going higher and higher. And this cycle from a time and price standpoint, we'll look, I think that the cycle, if I were to put odds on it, the likelihood that this cycle looks like the past one, I would have very, very low. Um, and obviously I would skew to a longer a bull market with higher prices because I'm wearing a Bitcoin hat, but I actually would think a shorter bull market to me is more likely than just a repeat of history. I just would like your reaction to that because it's just, there's, there's so much discussion about, you know, where are we already, Paul talks about while we're in the fifth inning and he's basing it on prior history, and if everyone's got the same trade on it, it's going to be different than that.

Willy Woo: (28:21)
Uh, I kinda agree with you

Speaker 3: (28:24)
Actually. Um, you know, I, I, I've seen a lot of templating of the cycle past cycles. Um, I don't think anyone would have guessed that the cycle would be ripping up so quickly. So, so had, um, and I know a lot of the team traders have been like, this is overboard and it's just been on the red line consistently until the last, you know, I guess month and a half. Um, and

Willy Woo: (28:55)
My approach really is like,

Speaker 3: (28:58)
You know, we got all these models, um, the status of you trading a model, um, I ran the 2017. We hit like $10,000 and everyone said, this is tall. And I looked at the back trace and I look at the on chain analysis of it and it, it could have been a talk, it was touch and go. Um, and then it ripped and doubled, doubled to 20,000 in a matter of weeks. Um, and so everyone's got this plan, um, beautiful plan. And so thing happens and, you know, I get people asking me, can you let me know when we get with them 25% of the top? And I think back to 2017, I go, you know what, well, didn't, we just like, we, we, we doubled and I think just barely over two weeks in two weeks, we went from 10,000, but like, there was something like, we went from 10,000, 20,002 weeks.

Speaker 3: (30:08)
And, um, every day the prices running up thousands of dollars and you think, can I have a nice, um, wanting 25% of the way to the top? And the whole thing is Maine. Um, and so when you're in there, mania phase of the market, anything can happen. The fundamentals have gone out the window and it's just highly speculative. You'll see the price rise way about what on chain. Um, valuations will go. The, um, I mean, you just don't know, it's like you're playing chicken off a freight train, speak of FOMO. So, um, I think that's gonna come into it and we'll we're to maybe the models where maybe they die. Um, but everyone's going to be in complete disarray when, when, when we approached the top, that's, that's always happening at that point. Um,

Willy Woo: (31:03)
I don't know if we're going to top out early. Um, I think there's a fair chance. Um, there's a fair chance we might might just looking at some, some of the, the rates of climb. Um, you know, I look at, I look at the, the capital coming into the network and I look at these bounds, you can put on it based on the back trace. Um, it's like, while the price can go beyond this part or this, this price target, because, um, historically, you know, we haven't been able to break there with this amount of capital on the system, so there's, there are bounds. Um, and, uh, I, you know, you predict them for, it seems like, well, we're gonna close out this cycle earlier. Um, but having said that fundamentally, um, you know, looking at the institutions coming in, um, which maybe you have a better idea of, it looks like a lot of money's still coming in.

Willy Woo: (32:05)
Um, and, and it's kind of, yeah, I do get the sense that if their money is coming in and it's coming in near the later into this year, um, the, it could change a lot. And I, the, you know, the top, the top model I have, it's a moving target based on essentially the price section that's happening throughout the year. Um, so having said this, this target out there, and there's a very broad gin near target. It's very dependent on the time signature of there happening around December. Um, so I have, for anyone who's trading this and thinking of your hundred thousand, that's a hard and fast target. Um, it changes, you know, I see 300,000 year, January of this year, cause that was where, and there was conservative because it was based on past curbing of that model. Um, but I think it's very subject to, to, um, change. Um, it's certainly not like plan B's, um, stock to flow model where he's got a line on the same where this amount guests, the models, this price, this, this regulation. Um,

John Darcie: (33:23)
And by the way, I don't mean, you know, my approach to models is it's sort of like, it's like riding a horse, you know, you ride it till it bucks you, you know what I mean? So, you know, I, I'm just wondering if this is the year we break the book, the model, in fact, John and I spoke with someone who runs one of the larger institutional businesses in Bitcoin, and he believes that that will happen for the reason you just said. He just said that the, the, the March of institutional capital is so large and, uh, it takes these folks time. You know, it just takes them time and, you know, if they're going through their committees now and they're coming in in the fall, like they're, they're not worried about the cycle. Right. You know, and they're not going to be saying, well, it's late in the cycle. Let's not invest there. They're going to be buying. Um, and that's where you could get, you know, sort of a, um, a busted cycle. I'm not on board with Dan held Supercycle. I said, I do think we're going to have a, a bear market. I think that's just nature of, of everything I've ever traded. Um, but I just think it's going to be different this time, but who knows we'll find out. Um,

Willy Woo: (34:35)
Yeah, I agree. I thought, I think the whole thing's on a, um, you know, it's a, it's, I feel like it's like, uh, it could go either

Speaker 3: (34:44)
Way. Um, we could, like, if we get an influx of this very large capital from the very large institutions that could change, um, but then also there's so much leverage in the system on the cycle. And we haven't seen that in 2017, like just the amount of people I've heard that are like mortgaging their houses to buy more Bitcoin or

Willy Woo: (35:14)
Collateralizing their Bitcoin on a block fire line to get fear, to buy more Bitcoin, um, even funds are doing there. Um, so, you know, once the price starts to Teeter, I could see, um, a very large sell off in a large deleveraging event there that throws us into, uh, a BMI market. But if this capital comes in near the tail end of this year, that's going to stop that from happening and it'll just run up higher, um, cause then deleveraging might happen. Um, so,

John Darcie: (35:53)
So th th there's one factor that, that I don't hear people talking about, which I think about a lot, which is, as, as we know, there are 900 Bitcoin new Bitcoin mined every day, right? So in fall, let's say when the Bitcoin price was 15,000, that represented 13 and a half, a million dollars a day. And, you know, PayPal and square and grayscale were able to scoop up that much just based on their, their daily inflows and buying, you know, today we're up to 49 and a half million dollars. Right. And, you know, w w we have a fund we're buying Bitcoin every day. There are other people, right? So, you know, that that's an absorbable amount, but when you start get to bigger numbers, right. You know, it's 90 million at a hundred thousand. I mean, this is just basic math, but th you know, when you say the numbers are, you get to 250,000 Bitcoin, right.

John Darcie: (36:49)
That's 225 million supply. And, you know, I love Michael sailor's idea of Bitcoin miners holding the Bitcoin on balance sheet. But most of them, you know, don't have access to the capital markets yet we don't have, as a percentage of the miners, a very small amount of them, right. Are trading on public exchanges where they can raise debt and equity. So I think we have to assume that that's, that is supply, that, that will come onto the market. That's just a lot of incremental demand just to sustain the price, I guess. What are your thoughts on that and how does that affect your model? Right. Again, we get to two 50, right? That's $225 million, then that new flows have to come in just to keep the price add 250,000. Am I thinking about that wrong?

Willy Woo: (37:40)
Yeah. I, I really don't think the minor cell offers anything that significant. A lot of people look at the charts of, of minor, um, outflows into exchanges. Um, and I look at them every day. Um, you know, I've got it, the whole chart here every day, I'm looking at it and I don't even look at it because it's so minuscule against, um, genes, the buying power of, um, of, of a full-blown bull market. Like we're saying, um, currently at least on Shane it's 50,000 people are buying Bitcoin for the very first time. That means that, uh, by my estimates multiply by three, roughly, um, we're seeing 150, 50,000 people that are buying Bitcoin for the very first time, um, at the exchanges Naval, nevermind, just looking on chain. So, um, gosh, even excluding the institutions, just talking retail, um, that's like less than a 10th of a Bitcoin, um, per day, like, like for each one of those new participants, that's very minuscule.

Willy Woo: (38:58)
Um, uh, not, not very much talked about as, um, the actual real self power, um, in this cycle is really the, the, um, the fees that are generated on these derivative exchanges. Um, like I was talking to one of the very large OTC desks. Um, the head was giving me an estimate of the sell off by exchanges from, you can think of it as a tax on trading. And then that gets dumped into the market converted to fee, to pay salaries and, and, and whatnot. Um, he, he estimated, um, 1200 Bitcoins per day, um, in 2020, um, is being dumped onto the market. Um, so you can think of that as a sell pressure and other kind of minors. Um, so appreciate, it's like the exchange mining fees and dumping that on the market. Um, we've got a lot more bullish activity, a lot more trading volume, 2021. Um, that's the one to look at, um,

John Darcie: (40:07)
Just to be clear. So you talking about, like, for example, a Binance is making their money in Bitcoin and they need to pay employees. So they're selling some amount of the Bitcoin that their revenues come in to pay employees. Is that, is that what you're saying?

Willy Woo: (40:24)
There's an example. I, I posted this, um, last year CZ mentioned that they, um, pay the employees and being, and they don't sell off to cash match. Um, but, uh, we're talking a heck of a lot of volume, you know, um, we're talking, um, you know, easily quarter of a trillion dollars a day into volume, um, most days. Um, so, uh, you, you take a small fee of that. It's gonna, it's gonna pale, and it's gonna make the, make the miner's fee tiny, absolutely tiny compared to what these exchanges are doing. And a lot of it does depend on whether they are, um, stacking sets, essentially stacking those Bitcoins and holding it. And how are they paying their staff and Bitcoin, or are they selling to fear?

Speaker 4: (41:13)
Um,

Willy Woo: (41:15)
And so that that's, that's not analysis I've done that comes from OTC desk. Um, I think to get a really good handle on it, you'd need to know exactly what the behavior of these changes are, but coming from an OTC desk, um, I think they've got a pretty good handle on exactly what's coming out.

John Darcie: (41:35)
Um, that's interesting. I wasn't aware of that. Um, I guess, relatedly, so we've been in this sort of 50,000 channel now for two months or so give or take, and, you know, there's a lot of talk of the institutional buying, right. You know, there's been a lot of good news thrown at Bitcoin over the last two months. Right. We had Brevan Howard, a big hedge fund announced they bought Dan Loeb, Ray, Daleo just in the last week, right. Ben opened up, um, and we're at 54,000, which again, we're up 80, 90% for the year, but where's this outside of, you know, the miners, which are sending us in substantial. And, you know, let's say exchange fees to pay compensation, where is all the supply coming? Right. Cause there's, there's a lot of talk about all the influx of demand and, you know, and how we're holding this trillion dollar level right here at 52 50 3000.

John Darcie: (42:30)
But it I'm an equities guy traded equities for my most of my career. It feels heavy to me. You know, Bitcoin feels heavy to me, you know, inequities trading. They say when a stock gets lots of good news and it, and it stops going up on that good news, it's a good time to sell. And, um, again, I'm, ragingly bullish on Bitcoin, but you know, for the last couple of weeks, that's how it's been acting as like a stock that gets hit with a lot of good news, but can't seem to break out. Um, so just like your reaction to that in terms of who is selling based on your analysis, um,

Willy Woo: (43:08)
Let me just zoom in. I want to pull up a chat so I can get my bearings on the dates here. Um, so, you know, typically, and you see it on the blockchain, you see the age of coins that are moving, um, Asia coins that are moving out of wallets. Um, when you see coins moving out of wallets and moving to new participants, um, that's a sale. And so we measure the age of those coins and the size of those clean movements. Um, we we've seen since the entire history of Bitcoin, um, the OGs, the, the whales that bought from early days, 2012 and earlier when things were like under a hundred dollars, those guys are divesting and every single bull market rally, they divest a little divided dailies, but, um, and we saw that, um, interestingly,

John Darcie: (43:58)
Well, I talked to a lot of those guys and they all deny it. So I believe your data and they're probably lying to me, but none of them say they're selling,

Willy Woo: (44:07)
Maybe not recently. They certainly did. And, um, you know, they certainly did up to match and they stopped selling when Elon Musk started buying, which was very interesting. And then the sell is, um, since then, um, you know, they are away or sellers that have been selling, um, that have been selling, um, since, um, the OGE stopped selling. Um, the age of coins have been, um, much younger and, um, we saw a lot of that hitting into the tail end of match for the quarterly rebalance. So, um, my guess is really the, the hedge funds that bought in, um, in the 10,000 ban took a lot of profit. Um, I think Rafa was one of the funds that went on record. Um, so

John Darcie: (44:58)
Yes, we're seeing,

Willy Woo: (44:59)
I think a lot of these, um, trading funds that are buying in for, um, shorter term, um, live positions that, that, that taking the five to six X. Um, and, and that's, that's creating a bit of a cap and the same here. Um, so yeah, I, those are the sellers is what I'm seeing. Um, very clearly based on the date of the coins that are moving into the exchanges.

John Darcie: (45:27)
Got it. I guess that makes sense. Um, so something that's happened is that over the last six months, that has surprised me is, um, like the doge coin phenomenon, you know, I, I, it, the ICO craze and the all coin craze of 17, 16, 17 felt again like, you know, the sort of speculation you see early in a market. And we had Bitcoin back to approaching what eight 80% or so of the overall cryptocurrency market in the fall Bitcoins. Now down to 50% of the cryptocurrency market, right? Doge coin is 58 billion. And I'm only using that as a stand in, right. There are a lot of other, um, coins and defy tokens that, you know, are trading advantage. It really big numbers. I, I guess I'd like your thoughts on that in terms of the overall market and what does it mean for Bitcoin good, bad or indifferent?

Willy Woo: (46:32)
Well, you know, like, um, the altcoin market, there's many ways we can look at it. Like the, the, the, the, the age old way of looking at it is, look, these are, these are, um, alternative assets that you can trade in and out of, um, you do a back trace on them, and I bet traced what nearly 2,500 of them across all the history that there was. And, um, more or less these assets it's trimmed down over multiple cycles. But the interesting thing about these ACS is that they, um, they provide, uh, um, you know, I kind of beat her. Like, it, it, it, um, in a bull market, they can go a lot higher than, um, Bitcoin and outperform Bitcoin and, you know, be a market underperform and they go through oscillations. So, um, a lot of traders will, will, um, particularly the crypto native traders will trade in and of altcoins in different phases of the market, particularly when the Queensland or sideways band.

Willy Woo: (47:35)
So while you've got the sell off coming from, um, initially the whales from the OGs, and now the hedge fund selling off in the quarter, you're rebalancing, um, it's trapped Bitcoin in a sideways band. Um, and then, um, when you're in that zone and you also get these native traders that are like crypto native traders, they're like going, okay, this is my opportunity while Bitcoin's going sideways, I'm not going to get any gains on that. So I'm going to move capital out of Bitcoin and into these coin assets and that tiny little market caps. So they go weak all the way up, um, on very small amounts capital. Um, so yeah, you get that kind of a fit. Um, that's the traditional way of explaining it, that is definitely happening. Um, we're in a, kind of a 20, 21 phase of the market where there's a lot of experimentation happening on, um, defy.

Willy Woo: (48:30)
And so, um, you know, there's a lot of, some of the, you know, a lot of legitimate experimentation, um, a lot of, um, complete scams, um, uh, there's some very well engineered devices projects that are, um, well engineered in the economics to go upwards, um, striking a lot of capital. Um, and then you've got, um, a lot of interesting projects there. Um, actually we didn't have in 2017 then look like, um, you know, they can hold the future of defy. Like, um, you know, I, for example, FTX is a shining star or one of these derivative markets and, um, the, of being creating serum decks and that built their own salon owner. And, you know, we've, we've got exchanges there. We can trade on now where the transaction fees are sub sub one, penny, um, and all secured on a private key with no counterparty risk when less counterparty risk, maybe a little more, a little bit more risk on that technology stack, but, um, who doesn't want to trade, um, without counterparty risk, you know, these, these are very exciting projects.

Willy Woo: (49:44)
And if you were to think about how that looks like in the nutritional world, um, the amount of capital in these, these derivative markets is huge. So, um, these projects are really wanting to get a slice of, um, essentially the future finance, taking a lot of trade fire moving onto defy. It's a big, that's a big, um, there's a big market right then. So there's a lot of speakers, a lot of fervor, um, between even investors, as much as, um, traders that are like taking a ride on some of these, um, you know, more scalable next generation platforms. So I think that that's, it's a, it's a little bit more mature than the 20, when we had no technology, you could raise money on it on a white paper and a woman, a good story. Now we're seeing some interesting technologies that may be able to carry, um, some of the world's finance, maybe in four years, once it matures, once we get the bugs out of it. And, um, a lot of people want to get in on the ground floor of that stuff, you know?

John Darcie: (50:49)
Right, right. You know, it's been, it's, uh, it seems though very early in terms of the real use cases for these [inaudible] tokens, you know what I mean? Um, in terms of, you know, there being long-term sustainable business models, I haven't seen many that have them yet, or at least in operation. Um, but I do agree. I do agree. It's super exciting, John, since you're dressed like a Bitcoin, or do you want to bring us home? Absolutely. I have a few just big picture questions. I'd love to hear your answer to Willie. And one is the price of Bitcoin in 2030. What do you think it will be? And what will Bitcoin's role in the global financial system be? Is it going to become the default global store of value around which every other Fiat currency and digital currency and the global economy revolves around? Uh, what are your thoughts on those two questions?

Willy Woo: (51:43)
Yeah. I approached Bitcoin as a technologist, um, and I do track the growth rate. Um, I've been on record from the data. I'm seeing that in the next four to five years, 20, 25, we'll have 1 billion people with exposure to a digital asset being Bitcoin or any other one. Um, so what I'm saying is, um, essentially, um, software eating the world. Now it's, now that we'll figure out how to do scarcity on the internet, which we never be able to be able to do before. Um, software's eating the finance world. And so I can see 'em in 10 years, that's plenty time to take big chunks. Um, maybe even majority chunks out of traditional finance and putting that onto blockchains, um, Bitcoin being the leading store of value. Um, so, you know, um, we're like, yeah, w w we're in this, this kind of transition to a digital age? Um, I I'm seeing that like crypto assets is going to eat everything, um, eventually is there's teen years enough to do that and maybe, um, Bitcoin itself, uh, I think it's going to eat gold in that time. Um, I think it's going to eat some of the store of value and equities, which is like, what is it, a hundred trillion? Um, I think, I think that conservatively, we're going to be in the 10 to $50 trillion market cap and 10 years. Um, you know, so yeah, whatever that works out is,

Speaker 4: (53:32)
Um, right, so

John Darcie: (53:36)
10, 10 to 50 X from here. So we'll let our viewers do the math there, but, uh, not, not a terrible return. Um, do you think Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general, you're talking about software eating the world. So I think I might know your answer to this question. Do you think it poses a legitimate threat to us, dollar hegemony? Uh, you know, the idea that the us dollar is going to maintain its role as, as the dominant asset through which the United States government can pull all kinds of different levers related to sanctions and its other geopolitical goals.

Speaker 3: (54:05)
Oh, that's a tough one. You're probably asking the wrong person. I don't actually think that Bitcoin's gonna be completely dominant. I think that the future is the basket. Um, I think the U S dollar is going to be, um, more or less digitized. Um, and you know, in terms of

Willy Woo: (54:24)
Like, you know, the U S is very, very much a large economy. I don't think that's going away. So there is such a thing as, you know, a nation state currency backed by a very large economy with a big, um, defense force. So I don't think that's going away, but I do think that, um, the future of, uh, like money, um, will be backed by a basket of assets. And I do think Bitcoin will be a major paddle there. And, um, and so I don't know if they asked us the question. I don't think we're, I'm not a Maximo. So I think that, um, Bitcoin's going to be the money for the future and the only money that's going to swell everything. I think it's going to be a lot more nuanced and more complex. Um, so yeah, you're,

John Darcie: (55:11)
You're sitting in Hong Kong right now. Uh, China's relationship with Bitcoin has been, uh, interesting and mixed over the years where you have a lot of global Bitcoin mining takes place in China, but four years ago they banned the transfer and issuance of cryptocurrency, but in the last a week or so, the deputy at the people's bank of China, the central bank of China came out and said, Bitcoin is not a cryptocurrency in his eyes. And obviously he speaks on behalf of the government. People don't speak out of turn in China, uh, but he thinks it could be an investment alternative. And that marks a significant shift in tone from the Chinese government. Obviously, if China were to open things up relating to Bitcoin, that opens up a massive market of buyers for Bitcoin and Metcalf's law and the derivative network impact to that. Do you think China is on its way to liberalizing the way it looks at Bitcoin?

Willy Woo: (56:04)
Oh, I don't know. I actually, there's one thing I do not know. Well, I do not know how to read China. Um, I don't know what the strategy is, um, whether or not they want the people to, to expose to this se it, um, it does make sense that they would, I think there was a paper put out by someone and w in, in Chinese, um, and inside China that hit hit Wade. I can't remember. It was many years ago. They did say it made sense for, um, the citizens to have exposure to this. If it got big. Um, it seems, it seems, it seems like a, um, a good move, but, uh, I'm not an expert of China inside China. So again, I don't, I don't think I have any, any kind of smart thing to say about, all right.

John Darcie: (56:52)
Well, we know Willie, he specializes in on chain analysis. Anything related to the data, uh, on the chain is where Willie, uh, you know, it really specializes. So look forward to continuing to reading your analysis on your newsletter. Please tell us again about your newsletter, where people can subscribe to it and find it.

Willy Woo: (57:10)
Yeah, the newsletter is my take a read of the blockchain. I look at demand supply, so essentially looking at what's happening and what it's projected to happen. Um, so you can make kind of forecast, so ma mid macro directionality. Um, and so if you, if you want to subscribe to that best way to look it up is to go to my Twitter profile. Uh, we NAMEC on Twitter and I, there's a link on my profile page to, to the newsletter. You can subscribe. Yeah.

John Darcie: (57:38)
All right. Woo NAMEC on Twitter. You can go find Willy woo. Uh, his sub stack newsletter, which is fantastic. Again, we'll share a link to it when we send a, this episode out to all of our, our community at salt. So, uh, thanks so much for joining us, Willie, uh, Brett, you have a final word for Willie before we let them go. No, just, just again, I'm a fan. This was really fun. Thanks for joining us for way. I really appreciate it. Okay.

Willy Woo: (58:01)
Thanks guys. Enjoyed it too. Okay. Well, thank

John Darcie: (58:04)
You everybody for tuning into today's salt. Talk with Willy. Woo. Just a reminder. If you missed any part of this talk or any of our previous salt talks, you can access them on our website. It's salt.org backslash talks or on our YouTube channel, which is called salt tube. We're also on social media. Twitter is where we're most active at salt conference, but we're also on LinkedIn, Instagram, and Facebook. And please, if you don't mind spread the word about these salt talks, particularly if you have a, an uncle who rails on the fact that the Bitcoin is some type of imaginary currency with no utility or value, send them to Willie Woo's newsletter his sub stack as well as have them watch this episode. And I think it'll go a long way towards helping to change their mind, but on behalf of Brett and the entire salt team, this is John Darcie signing off from salt talks for today. We hope to see you back here against them.

Brett Tejpaul: Coinbase IPO & Institutionalization of Crypto | SALT Talks #206

“I think Coinbase’s public listing is a moment of validation for the crypto industry and it should help fuel further adoption.”

Brett Tejpaul is the head of institutional sales at Coinbase, a leading company in the digital asset space that recently went public.

Coinbase is known for its role as one of the most prominent retail crypto trading platforms, but it is continuing to grow as the go-to solution for institutional investors getting into the digital asset space. Coinbase’s public listing marked another inflection point in cryptocurrency’s growth. With Coinbase’s public listing comes greater trust, transparency and security alongside its top tier trading platform. This has been key to attracting the continuing migration of institutional investors. “I think Coinbase’s public listing is a moment of validation for the crypto industry and it should help fuel further adoption.”

The key advancement in the crypto space is custody. The ability to buy and sell was always limited by the lack of options to store the digital assets safely and securely. “Custody was the linchpin- having a qualified regulated custodian. There are lots of ways to buy and sell, but if you can’t store it safely, it becomes really difficult.”

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Brett Tejpaul.jpeg

Brett Tejpaul

Head of Institutional Sales, Trading, Custody & Prime Services

Coinbase

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darcie: (00:07)
Hello everyone. And welcome back to salt talks. My name is John Darcie. I'm the managing director of salt, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance technology and public policy. Salt talks are a digital interview series with leading investors, creators, and thinkers. And our goal on these salt talks the same as our goal at our salt conferences, which we're excited to resume here in September of 2021. And if you're watching, we hope you can make it to that in-person event, but there'll also be options to participate virtually. But our goal on these talks and the goal at our conferences as well is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And if you've been tuning into salt talks over the past year or so, you've known that we've done a series of salt talks on the digital asset space, but we also cover a through the traditional finance ecosystem as well.

John Darcie: (00:59)
Uh, big banks, hedge funds institutions, and our guest today sort of blends those two worlds. Uh, his name is Brett Taiji, Paul. He is the head of institutional sales trading custody and prime services at Coinbase, which is, uh, as you likely know, the leading company in the digital asset space recently went public by a direct listing. Uh, Brett joined Coinbase in April of 2020 after a 25 year career in the financial industry. 1.0 as he calls it at, uh, JP Morgan initially. And then most recently at Barclays, uh, he's an experienced builder in financial services, working with both institutional clients and FinTech companies, uh, at Coinbase, he's working to expand the institutional client base, build out the coverage team, introduce new features and services that institutional investors expect and educate the institutional community about crypto as an asset class and its role within a diversified portfolio.

John Darcie: (01:52)
And that's part of a mission that we share at SkyBridge, uh, with what Brett is doing over there at Coinbase. It, his most recent role at Barclays, he was the global head of sales. Uh, he'd developed large teams and incubated multiple business lines in that role. Now he pioneered the digital role across sales and trading, adopting new technologies and transforming existing platforms, including the creation of a digital bank prototype. So that's sort of step fully into the digital asset world was a natural step for Brett. Um, you know, as he joined Coinbase again early in 2020, uh, I'm hosting today's talk. So again, I am a managing director of salt and also a director of business development at SkyBridge. Uh, if you're watching this, you probably know that SkyBridge has substantial investments into Bitcoin. Uh, one of those institutions that's jumped on board, uh, in late 2020 in our case.

John Darcie: (02:41)
Uh, but excited to be hosting the talk here with you today, Brett, the first question I want to ask is about your background. So again, you joined Coinbase in April of 2020 to help lead the institutional side of the business at that time. Uh, Bitcoin was only about $7,000 a coin. It hadn't engaged in this sort of Supercycle that we're in the midst of today as we, but why did you decide to ultimately make that leap? You're obviously sort of straddling FinTech and the financial system 1.0 over there at Barclays, but what gave you sort of the aha moment or the Eureka moment to say, you know, what, it's time to make that jump fully into digital assets?

Brett Tejpaul: (03:15)
Uh, I became quite vocal about the fact that I thought that towards the end of my 17 years at Barclays, that technology was finally going to disrupt the trading floor. And so, uh, I wanted to do something about it and I coordinated that digital role. Uh, I was trying to help Barclays look to the outside world instead of building everything, sort of buying it and importing outside technology and then some early success with that. But the more success I have, the more conviction, um, I had before looking, um, in anticipation of, I think, uh, banking and finance, really being, uh, fundamentally disruptive. I looked at, um, opening an OTC trading desk, uh, in, in June of 18 and concluded at the time for an OTC, uh, crypto desk and concluded at the time that the infrastructure wasn't really there to support, uh, the sort of scale of trading I thought we would have. And, and also in a quite sort of regulatory heavy environment. But if you fast forward two years and took a second look at the crypto space, and I was amazed to see that the infrastructure I think largely had been solved for. So, um, when, when, when I then said, well, w w what's next? And if, uh, if I had this sort of super high conviction, you know, view on both cryptocurrencies and digital assets, Coinbase was the only place to consider.

John Darcie: (04:32)
Well, it's certainly, uh, been an interesting period from the time you joined to today. Uh, you know, Bitcoin has gone from today, we're trading around 50,000 from around $7,000 a coin. I'm sure it's been a interesting journey for you to say the least, but Coinbase, I think is known, uh, in the public sphere more for its retail crypto trading business. So it's the dominant platform in the U S where retail, crypto trading across a variety of different crypto assets, but it also has a very robust institutional side of the business, which you help lead. What does a Coinbase offer to the institutional community? What does that institutional business look like and what are reasons why as people are evaluating the different options out there in the marketplace, they should look at using Coinbase

Brett Tejpaul: (05:17)
Level four institutions is we have a prime platform that ties together. What I think is the best trading platform, uh, along with a qualified custodian. And then all of the services that one would expect from a prime broker, like, like financing. And so we also have an exchange which is operated separately. Um, but I'm trying to raise the awareness, uh, that, you know, Coinbase can be the go-to place for institutions. When I, when I think through sort of the top 10, if you like reasons why, um, institutions should consider coming to Coinbase, I want to begin with trust. It's super important. So that's why, you know, that that is at the top. And so trust transparency, uh, to where we're now a public company. And so last week in the back, we had had one of the world's larger hedge funds doing diligence on us for the past sort of five, six months.

Brett Tejpaul: (06:08)
And at the end of the talks and said, you know, we're really excited that you're going to be a public outbreak because we don't want to be beholden to, um, sort of private companies in this space. And we think that public companies are held to a higher standard. So I think that's important. Uh, three is we're regulated. So we operate as a New York trust company. We're fiduciary under your banking law, and we're a qualified custodian under the investment advisors act we're money transmitter. So that means we have to adhere to your KYC and AML for, uh, we're secure. So the first line of defense is, uh, of course our security protocols, and we've got an unblemished track record in that respect. And the second line of defense is the largest insurance policy in the industry, uh, five, uh, product. So, um, we have by far, I think the best trading platform, we can go more into detail why I think that's the case. Um, but I think it's second to that. Well, we're

John Darcie: (07:02)
Customers of that platform. So I can't argue with you on that one, but yeah.

Brett Tejpaul: (07:05)
Yup. Thanks. We're also the largest custodian in the world. So we have a quarter trillion of assets on platform and roughly 50% of that 122 million is now institutional when I started, um, it was, it was actually less than 3 billion. Um, and then C uh, on, on the product side, it's really the prime brokers of all solutions. So it's important that every single thing that we do stands on its own. So you can pick and choose, you can buy here and store there. But I think I'm finding to experience that institutions. I want a cluster seamless offering six, and this is a good one. It's the largest and most sophisticated investors in the world have chosen us. And so we have w w where you have a long list of companies that are announcing that they've come into this space. We've been fortunate to win exclusive mandates and most in pretty much all the cases.

Brett Tejpaul: (07:52)
And the second point I'd say is there's a long list of companies that have made pretty significant investments that have yet to disclose, uh, their, their participation. So I just, um, highlight the fact that we're, we can be trusted with confidential information seven, and we'll talk more about this later is we are a business, the business crypto infrastructure provider. So if you're a bank and you don't have native crypto capabilities, if you're a FinTech platform, if you're a challenger bank, uh, you can come to us and ask us to act as a sub custodian in the bank space, uh, and an execution platform where you can do an integration or a white labeling. So that whole, we should talk more about, um, the fact that we can white label solutions. Yeah. Do you,

John Darcie: (08:37)
Do you, uh, are you able to disclose different platforms that you guys help power on the B2B infrastructure side?

Brett Tejpaul: (08:44)
Uh, so fine. Revolut are two normal names that I think a lot of people would, would recognize, but we have about in my sort of finance lingo, we have 50 introducing brokers in the platform. So I think the, the high level of years that, um, institutions want to, um, find bulk crypto directly, they can come to us for that. Um, if instead they want to give their end customers the ability to participate in, in crypto. Uh, we can facilitate that three more points we've got,

John Darcie: (09:13)
And that top 10, I know we only got through six or seven, so,

Brett Tejpaul: (09:18)
So we had the biggest balance sheet in the world and we, and we, we were in this space rather. Um, but we put it to work on behalf of clients. And so we provide true credit intermediation. So talk more about that later as well, nine, I think we're the best long-term partner. So, so what I've learned is, uh, this space moves fast. Uh, and so, you know, generic Bitcoin custody today might be something else, you know, in, in the future. And I think you want to make a long-term investment and a partner that's going to evolve and stay in the forefront of innovation than 10, I know, long time getting here and make it easy. So, so w we've got all the available resources, um, to, to handhold, uh, to give white glove service, to give education. Um, and so we're, we're, we're really enthusiastic about welcoming, you know, new players in the space.

John Darcie: (10:03)
Yeah, man, I think, again, for us, we are customers of your trading platform. And I think for us, as we were, uh, diving into the Bitcoin ecosystem, we were evaluating different players and we were pitched certain things by different groups. We didn't at the time when we were starting our due diligence process, we weren't fully aware of the institutional capabilities at Coinbase. And so it's been an eyeopening journey for us to see just what you guys have built, the scale of what you built. And then also the most important questions we get from our customers are around trust security and insurance, as you mentioned, the largest insurance policy, some of the best cyber security capabilities, and the fact that you're a public company, the level of scrutiny that goes into all of that is also enhanced relative to some other companies that are private in the space. I want to talk about, uh, Bitcoin and crypto, you know, you, I think, as we mentioned in the open at, uh, Barclays, you helped pioneer a digital bank prototype. Um, and you, you started doing a lot of due diligence on the asset class in 2017, 2018, as many people did as it sort of burst into the public consciousness with that first rally, uh, to about $20,000. I'm talking about Bitcoin in that regard, but how in your view has the cryptocurrency market evolved and how is it different today than it was in 2017, 2018?

Brett Tejpaul: (11:19)
So if I were a ton of change, but if I put my finger on just one thing and point to it, I'd say custody, so custody and settlement, I think they're, they're really important things. And so, um, I think that was the linchpin, um, and, and having a, a regulated, qualified custodian. So now that that's there, there were lots of different ways that you can buy. Um, there's lots of different ways you can sell. You can do interesting things that you can run bots. You can do tons of different things to participate in buying and selling, but if you can't store it safely, and if he can't, you know, sort of have the complexity of storing your own sort of private and attracted away, it becomes really, really difficult. So I think the Coinbase custody solution that abstracts away, a lot of the difficulty in engaging with digital assets, I think was the breakthrough. Now on top of that, we can layer on the trading platform financing and all the things that people that trade asset classes like equities and FX and others that have grown accustomed to. Right.

John Darcie: (12:17)
And in terms of the institutionalization of the asset class, some that we've talked about, we think it's going to be a big price driver. And eventually a dampener of volatility is more strong longterm hands start buying Bitcoin and other digital assets. But from what segments of the institutional market, are you seeing the biggest uptake in interest? You talked about the fact that you guys are discreet. You don't have to necessarily name names, although there's been leaks over the last six to 12 months about, you know, big insurance companies, endowments, um, that, that have bought into Bitcoin. It's not publicly disclosing it, but from what segments of that institutional world, are you seeing the most interest?

Brett Tejpaul: (12:55)
So, uh, early adopters were pensions and endowments. Um, they, I would say in some sense long been in this space, but there's a, there's a, uh, an increasingly larger deployment of capital coming from them. Uh, when I think about, uh, hedge funds in particular macro hedge funds and multi-strat hedge funds. And so probably the biggest new entrance over the course of the past nine months has been macro funds really scaling up their activity. Um, I've also seen some equity funds and credit funds have starting to enter the space along the systematic, uh, as well. Um, three, I would say you've seen it reported that us banks are looking to get into this space, perhaps searching for sub custodial and execution partners. And so I think that banks have concluded that digital assets are a part of their future, and I'm seeing an uptick in activity.

Brett Tejpaul: (13:45)
And I anticipate the fact that we'll have some large us banks trading cryptocurrency before the end of the year, um, corporates. So corporates, uh, you've seen the big splash by MSDR, um, Michael Saylor sort of ways that you're out there. And we've had a lot of fast followers. When I think about corporates, they're there that arrive at our doorstep. Um, they talk about it in two ways. One is the hard-headed CFO or treasurer who, um, has an obligation to consider what's owned in treasury, and it's exploring the idea of owning a pretty significant chunk of Bitcoin. So that's, that's one way, um, that, I mean, corporates, the other way is a corporate who says, you know what, I think this digital economy is really going to happen. I need to position my firm to participate in commerce, uh, payroll, and as a consequence of conducting those activities in the north wind up having a bit of Bitcoin and, or other cryptocurrencies.

Brett Tejpaul: (14:39)
And so we're not gonna make a giant splash, uh, in terms of our treasury allocation, but we do want to position the firm to, to, uh, to participate in this space going forward. So, uh, corporates who have I left out. So family offices and foundations have been, you know, involved and, you know, increasingly increasingly more insurance companies. So I had a pretty memorable, um, experience with an insurance company and it's top leadership a couple of weeks ago where they actually started the conversations that of asking me what we could offer. They said, we thought through, uh, you know, 10 or 11 different use cases, uh, for stable coin. And so we fought about, you know, accepting, uh, premiums, uh, in USB-C we're talking about, um, paying out after cap on events and USB-C, and a whole myriad of other sort of use cases around, around, around payments. And then of course, we've got that large sort of last bucket, which is introducing brokers. And I scope in, you know, FinTech platforms and PayPals, and, um, you know, all sorts of, uh, brokerages and challenger banks, et cetera. And that's the world, the world that I'm, I'm also running hard after we're there, where I hope that they'll adopt, uh, some of the, the infrastructure that we can provide them that the power of those flows. Yeah. I mean,

John Darcie: (15:54)
You've seen places like PayPal, Venmo so far introduced it as they sort of build out their, build out their suite, you know, full suite of financial services. Are there others that you're in contact with that you think that all these neobank digital banks and even traditional banks are going to eventually all onboard a crypto capability? Or do you think that's several years down

Brett Tejpaul: (16:15)
The line, it feels like a trend, doesn't it? I mean, it's happening across that as I rattled through those different clients segments, there's not really a segment that I think is sleeping. I mean, I think I didn't get to asset managers yet, but, you know, we haven't seen, um, we haven't seen a Wellington, a Vanguard, you know, enter the space, but who knows? Um, I feel like they're slow moving giants, but, uh, the space also is lacking, um, from my perspective, it's lacking, um, a full suite of, of competing sort of options, um, for not just being able to we'll get the ETFs and hopefully one day soon or they're coming. But I do also think that one thing that can create a structured box. So if they have sort of cat downsides and custom payouts, I think is also coming soon. So let's

John Darcie: (17:01)
Talk about that ETF question. So there's, there's a variety of different use our sort of base case view based on conversations we've had, um, with, with former officials and, you know, not necessarily people that are directly involved in decision making process, but who have knowledge of the way these type of organizations and departments in government think, and who think that maybe we'll get an ETF by the end of 2021, late 20, 21 is sort of our base case. Do you agree with that? And what are the implications, if we do get the approval of an ETF or several ETFs, uh, on the business at Coinbase and what will be continue to be the differentiator that you guys offer in terms of people that are looking to transact in this?

Brett Tejpaul: (17:40)
I don't have any insight, uh, in terms of whether it will be this year or next year, or even the year after. Um, I do feel the marketplace, you know, wants one and I feel like the backdrop, or at least the, um, I think it's constructive. And so when I reflect about the sort of cascade of events that happen this year, um, which in part were led by, um, you know, the OCC allowing, you know, lifting the prohibition on banks to custody, uh, digital assets and allowing, you know, PayPal and non-depository institutions to the space. I think it sort of points in the right direction. So I can't, I can't be more specific on timing, but I do, I do think that that will come and, you know, w w w with respect to what happens at that moment, I, I think it's just another way for, for mass adoption, um, and participation in the space. You know, it's kind of easy to buy a ticker. Um, if you don't open a coin Coinbase, which by the way is super easy as well. Yeah.

John Darcie: (18:41)
And the interesting thing that we've seen, we saw Jay Clayton, the former sec chairman joined the board of one river asset management, a significant player in the digital asset space. You saw Brian Banks, uh, joined Binance as the head of their us business, as they try to build out a us business, or you're seeing all these former regulators jump into the digital asset space, we find it a hard to believe that those types of people would be joining us ecosystem if there wasn't some constructive level of regulation coming down the pike. Um, but also relating to the institutional market. Are there certain crypto assets that are dominating your conversations with these institutions? Is it 95% Bitcoin? And the other 5% is a theory. Um, and, and, uh, you know, in any other players in the space, is it a hundred percent Bitcoin? Is it more of a mix what's that breakdown, uh, that you're having a conversations with institutions about crypto

Brett Tejpaul: (19:35)
Assets? I would say a year ago, I started, it was almost, you know, 99% Bitcoin for institutions to the professional last year has shifted to more 80 20, between, um, you know, the base case for Bitcoin and Ethereum. And then I'd say, uh, some of the macro funds have gone, uh, outside of the, the two main liquid and are probably invested in a handful of other currencies. And so there's a pretty quick progression. I think once someone, you know, typically it tends to be Bitcoin as their first investment, and then it feels like, uh, if you're in, this is on the fastball. Yeah, no,

John Darcie: (20:14)
That makes a lot of sense. We talked about institutions. So an interesting question that I asked several guests that come on the show are sovereign governments. So there's been reports that Tamasic, which is a sovereign wealth fund based in Singapore is potentially already been buying Bitcoin. And it's on its a balance sheet, or is it in its portfolio and suggestion by sort of Bitcoin maximalists that and ultimate, uh, late part of the cycle. The Supercycle that we're in is when sovereign governments think that, uh, they need to own Bitcoin on their own balance sheets as a, as a long-term store of value. Have you seen any interest from sovereign governments or do you think that's somewhere that we're headed?

Brett Tejpaul: (20:55)
So 8 85 different central banks around the world are doing some sort of exploratory work on having digital currencies? And so, uh, I think you can read a little bit, uh, into the psyche of sovereigns through that, through that. Um, I, I do think it's a natural next progression for sovereigns that are heavily invested in fascial resources or national license of any, of any type to really begin to consider, you know, Bitcoin as a long-term store value. So I think it's, um, in scope and, um, I wouldn't be surprised if, um, we had sovereign participation sometime soon. So you

John Darcie: (21:31)
Were at Barclays before that you were at JP Morgan, as we've talked about, uh, in this episode you experienced what financial system, 1.0, looked like, and now you're on the other side of it where you, you started to sort of blend those two worlds in, in the later stages of your time at Barclays, but now you're fully in the digital asset world from your seat today, how much is traditional finance and finance 1.0 going to be disrupted by defy by crypto assets, by blockchain technology. And what does that ecosystem ultimately look like? Let's go say five to 10 years down the line. Are those banks going to be fully disintermediated? And they're going to have to either merge or acquire with digital asset companies or, or be left behind what does that world look like? If you look five, 10 years down the road,

Brett Tejpaul: (22:17)
That's a big question. Um, the, the person with the crystal ball, crystal ball at the aquarium basis, our founder, Brian Armstrong. So my mom, I couldn't really see out into the future maybe six months, maybe 18 months at best. Uh, so he's really the best person to talk through [inaudible]. But before I answer the question, I just want to widen the aperture a little bit and I want to move it away from Bitcoin Ethereum. And I want to talk about digital assets. So if you talk about visual assets, let me do that. I begin to think about tokenization of financial and physical assets, right? And so we're talking about, uh, engaging with assets other than those two, including stable coins. And when, when you do that, all of a sudden, you sort of set the expectation to say, okay, well, well, hang on a second. You've got banks that are, they do make massive payments.

Brett Tejpaul: (23:07)
They move money around the world. They trade management, spirochetes, they trade physical spirits, they do all these different things. And so I think it's just a natural and obvious progression for them to be able to transact and digital assets. I don't think it's about one disintermediating, the other, I think right now we're in the, we're in this sort of parabolic growth base of, um, having all sorts of institutions have the native, uh, capability to actually transact conduct, business, commerce payments, and other forms of lending, um, with digital assets. And so I think that's where we're headed. I'm I'm minded to as many partnerships with banks, private banks, you know, market counterparty is everyone's at the grow, what we call it, the crypto economy. Right.

John Darcie: (23:54)
Um, and, and people are going to hear some nice barking from my dog in the background here. So just don't mind that. But, uh, do you think the Coinbase, to the extent you're able to talk about the direct listing, but that serve as, as validation for the digital assets world, how do you think in a post Coinbase being public world, uh, people are looking at digital assets any differently than they were

Brett Tejpaul: (24:16)
Before. I certainly hope it's another important step of, of establishing the crypto economy and having, uh, you know, validation for this as an asset class. And so, I mean, everything, everything that I see, um, and it's not just the direct public lesson by itself, it's, it's everything else. Uh, and, and so again, if I reflect about the who's, who, and visual assets these days and cryptocurrencies, it's, it's sort of everyone. Um, and so, yes, I think it's a moment of validation and, uh, for, for the industry, um, and it, it should just help to fuel further adoption. Couple

John Darcie: (24:51)
More questions before we let you go. Um, we'll talk more about that B2B crypto infrastructure. How are you guys, uh, when did that side of the business start? How are you supporting those, uh, institutions as they build out their crypto capabilities and how big a part of that, uh, of the Coinbase business do you think that'll be, uh, in, in the coming years?

Brett Tejpaul: (25:11)
So w we we've been powering what, again, my, my terminology here, introducing brokers, which is anyone for whom, um, we help their end customers participate in so, you know, white label and, or, and, or other things. So I think over time it will be an increasing focus, but it's important to have, you know, each person or institution have the ability to hold crypto directly through us and also find, you know, other other avenues. And so it's a pretty bespoke integration that earliest can be. Uh, and so you'll have firms that may want to design the specific customer experience they want for their, for their end client, and we can figure out interesting ways to help them achieve it. And so I think over time, it will be an increasing focus, uh, for, for the firm.

John Darcie: (25:56)
Um, in terms of the, the details around everything you guys do on the prime, prime broking side. Um, could you go more in depth about all the different types of services you offer, um, you know, going a little more inside baseball here for, you know, maybe macro funds that, uh, that, that might be interested in using

Brett Tejpaul: (26:13)
Coinbase. Yeah, sure. So, uh, let's talk a little bit about the trig platform, because I think it's pretty differentiated. So we haven't, let's start with, we had a smart order routing. We have algorithmic execution. I think everyone pretty much knows what those are. Um, I would define this by saying that we're agency only on the institutional platform. So that is to say, um, if you're trading through our prime broker, I don't have a competing, uh, market maker desk, uh, which that felt so pure pure agency, um, because institutions, um, can trade through our trading platform with these phenomenally a phenomenal volume. You, you, you have an API integration and the fixed integration, you can have it on your desktop. You could call by NTC desk. So lots of different ways to initiate trading. Uh, when that happens, um, when I said, we, we have a big balance sheet and we're putting it to work on behalf of the customer.

Brett Tejpaul: (27:03)
So what that means is, um, when someone's doing their first trade, that might wire, uh, a billion dollars, but, you know, over to us, that's sitting in a bank account. And then if they're initiating a big, um, um, um, purchase of let's say, Bitcoin, what happens is they're, they're actually directing the working capital from our training empathy. And so it's that, it's that working capital, that's going out to 12 different venues and getting the best possible price of a Bitcoin in that millisecond. And so that's where I talk about the intermediation. So if by chance, there was something that went wrong operationally or otherwise on that, on someone else's exchange at the time, then, then that, that, uh, and, and institutional client wouldn't suffer loss. So, so that's a really, really big deal. And I think it's differentiator differentiating factor. There are, there are other smart order router platforms, but none of them, which I think before the protection that we can do in the way that I just described, couple more things there we traded in, on, on the bus and all the exchanges.

Brett Tejpaul: (28:02)
And so, you know, that like the more you trade less your fees are, and we w we pass that straight through to our end clients. And so that's super important. And then we give, uh, post-trade transparency. And so you'll see, and you've experienced it. It's pretty cool. You got a post-trade report, um, and you'll see exactly how the algos performed and what the, all the mini fills were. Um, another differentiating factor is, you know, how do you get billion dollar multi-billion dollar trades done in a marketplace, which is still trade pretty much like retail. And so the answer to that is, again, the trade platform. So we, we, we can, uh, be thoughtful. So if you were to engage in and, and, and want to buy, you know, a billion dollars on a, on a Friday afternoon, we we'd have a huddle with my trading team.

Brett Tejpaul: (28:46)
We'd go through it. We look at market conditions. We make some recommendations on how to layer in some T ops. We might consider putting some dip catchers in there. Uh, so if we get this big move that we saw on Saturday night, we can be optimistic and sort of fill our boots at the time. And so, and then we, we began to sort of work around the clock 24 7. And so every four to six hours, we'd get a report, we'd do a settlement. We would assess the market conditions. We go faster, we go slower. It's actually, um, I know you've seen it in action, but some of your years haven't, but it's, it's literally poetry in motion, my partner. It's fascinating.

John Darcie: (29:20)
Yeah. And as you mentioned, even, I think in Asia, uh, from people we've talked to on chain analysis, there's a lot more leverage in the system among Bitcoin buyers in Asia. So you see the market oftentimes move overnight more significantly than it does during regular trading hours in the U S and I think that's one of the things that's fascinating around Bitcoin is that the idea that financial markets, uh, only trade during certain hours is if you think about it a little bit strange, uh, you know, the fact that there's not constant price discovery taking place in markets. And, uh, you know, you guys obviously do a good job of staying plugged in around the clock to get the best prices for your customers in terms of, yeah, go ahead.

Brett Tejpaul: (30:01)
Let's just say, you know, Allison strange, um, is so pivoting from the, you know, the market opens the market closes, it's running a 24 7 trading operation in perpetuity. And so, uh, you mentioned Eric theaters, uh, earlier from one river. He actually did a, uh, a sort of test at us and a memorable moment where he wanted to see if it really was, you know, 24 7. And, uh, he, he put it in a giant sort of a series of orders and requests in on Thanksgiving morning. So when people were traveling to see, and anyway, long story short there, um, we, we, we, we did delivery, got everything done, and they sort of tested the limits of what 24 7 really meant. Right?

John Darcie: (30:37)
Yeah. Bitcoin never sleeps. Eric Peters is a brilliant guy. You know, we, we always compile sort of a handful of the best, uh, written materials around Bitcoin and his initial letter to investors as I, I think in the hall of fame of, of top, uh, macro cases for Bitcoin. So I would encourage everybody to read that last question I have for you, what stage, you know, I hate using the tired baseball analogy of what inning are we in? Are we in the third inning, the bottom of the second, whatever it may be, but you talked about how there's, there's still a large number of institutions that are either performing due diligence, or are currently invested in Bitcoin that we're not even aware of. What, what level of penetration and saturation within the institutional world do you expect to see, let's say in the next 12 to 18 months, relative to where we are now, are we, are we seeing a ton of people that are currently invested and we're seeing more people that are in the due diligence phase? Are we seeing more people that are now just becoming crypto curious, where do you think things are going to move in the next year to year and a half?

Brett Tejpaul: (31:36)
So, so if I reflect on 25 years of bringing new asset classes to institutional investors, and I think about exotic rates, I think about credit rated, as I think about, you know, uh, leveraged structured products. And I think about the cycle of adoption, it seems like it's about three to five years, right? If you're going full speed. And so it starts with nice players, it works its way up the medium-sized unabashedly there's adoption. What happened in this past year is just phenomenal. So what happened is we sort of skipped a few years and we went straight to the fifth year.

John Darcie: (32:06)
When does the clock start that it started in 2017, that a start on April 20th, 2020 when Brett page Paul joined Coinbase.

Brett Tejpaul: (32:14)
And I, I don't know where to start it because there's a lot of, I owe a lot to everyone that came before, but for me to set this wonderful stage, a wonderful business up, but all I can tell you is that it's, it's gone from fringe players. That sort of what I described that first kind of two years in my mind on adoption, straight to the, almost the sort of fourth and fifth, so sort of a year where you've full-scale adoption. And so right now I don't see anything that's going to come in between. Um, you know, that doesn't prevent that full full-scale adoption from happening. I mean, usually again, you have clusters of activity here. It's hedge funds, it's alternative asset managers and family offices, but it's not banks. And it's, you know, it's, it's not the biggest bonds, but now everyone's, um, you know, looking at it and w w and minded, I think, to deploy capital in the space. And so, I don't know, um, it, it just feels like if we continue at this pace, we're going to see adoption full-scale adoption sooner than we think. Right?

John Darcie: (33:15)
Well, Brett, it's been a pleasure to have you here on salt talks. Uh, you know, we were very happy customers and partners of Coinbase look forward to having you guys also involved in our salt conference in September as well. Um, you know, helping to institutionalize the asset class and educate people that still might be on the skeptical end of the spectrum, which to be honest with you, I was for several years, but as we've dug deeper into it, it's sort of hard to argue with the inevitability of, uh, digital assets and just the sort of reframing of our entire financial system. But thanks so much for joining

Brett Tejpaul: (33:46)
Us. Thanks, John. That's awesome. And thank

John Darcie: (33:49)
You everybody for tuning into today's salt. Talk with Brett page Paul from Coinbase. Again, we love educating people in our community, either that already know a lot about digital assets or just getting started on that intellectual journey, just to remind you if you missed any part of this talk or any of our previous talks, including a whole series we've done probably 20 or 30 now on the digital asset space, you can access them on our website@sault.org backslash talks and on our YouTube channel, which is called salt tube. Uh, we're also on social media on Twitter is where we're most active at salt conference, but we're also on LinkedIn, Instagram, and Facebook. If you're so inclined to follow us, and please spread the word again about these salt talks, especially, I think it's important to educate people on what's happening in the digital asset space. If you have a, an institution that's becoming crypto curious, uh, we'll, we'll feel free to pass along. Brett's email to you, and he can answer all your questions on that front. Uh, but on behalf of the entire salt production team here behind the scenes, uh, as well as myself, uh, signing off here from salt talkSPORT sport today, we hope to see you back here again soon.

Dan Tapiero: A New Macro World for Bitcoin & Gold | SALT Talks #203

“At some point down the line, everything we have of value will be on the blockchain somewhere in this digital asset ecosystem.”

Dan Tapiero is the CEO and Managing Partner of 10T, a growth equity fund. He is also the co-founder of Gold Bullion International (GBI), a physical precious metals platform for the wealth management industry that also expanded into the cryptocurrency universe in 2014. 

With the expansion of the money supply, gold continues to act as an effective hedge for traditional institutions, but Bitcoin represents an even bigger opportunity. The digital asset class ecosystem will be bigger than gold and its invention is revolutionary in nature. Bitcoin’s invention is akin to the combustion engine and electricity. “The 8-page white paper by Satoshi Nakamoto solved a math problem that hadn’t been solved for hundreds of years, the Byzantine Generals’ Problem- the problem of distributed trust. How do two counter-parties trust each other without an intermediary?”

Blockchain technology as a whole represents the future of value storage. Ethereum has its own unique properties and offers the ability to facilitate smart contracts and more. “At some point down the line, everything we have of value will be on the blockchain somewhere in this digital asset ecosystem.”

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Dan Tapiero.jpeg

Dan Tapiero

Chief Executive Officer & Managing Partner

10T

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darcie: (00:08)
Hello, and welcome back to salt talks. My name is John Darcie. I'm the managing director of salt, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance technology and public policy. Saul talks are a digital interview series that we launched in 2020 with leading investors, creators and thinkers. And our goal on these salt talks is the same as our goal at our salt conferences, which we're excited to resume here in September of 2021 in New York. And you can find out more about that event@salt.org, and we hope today's guest will join us there. But our goal is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And one of those ideas that we focused on heavily starting towards the middle of last year is the digital asset or crypto ecosystem.

John Darcie: (00:57)
So we're very excited today to bring you the latest installment of that series with the great Dan Tappy arrow. Uh, Dan tarot arrow is the chief executive officer and managing director of 10 T, which is his latest venture. He brings more than 30 years of experience in macro and commodity investing in trading research and economics into that venture as well as entrepreneurship in a number of different lanes, uh, before founding 10 T Dan was the managing partner at [inaudible] capital advisors, a global macro investment fund that he founded in 2003. He's the co-founder of the gold bullion international organization, which is a physical precious metals platform for the wealth management industry that has also expanded into the cryptocurrency universe in 2014, which is an interesting dichotomy that we're looking forward to diving into during this talk. He's a co-founder of the agricultural company of America, one of the largest farmland REITs in the U S at the time of its sale in 2013.

John Darcie: (01:54)
So as you can see by his bio, he has a wide array of different experiences within the asset management universe, but a global macro investor at heart, which perhaps is what led him to Bitcoin, uh, hosting today's talk is Brett messing, who is the president and chief operating officer at SkyBridge capital, which is a global alternative investment firms. SkyBridge has, uh, today, I guess maybe it's creeping over $600 million of exposure to Bitcoin through its flagship funds, as well as a dedicated product in the space. And with no further ado, I'll turn it over to Brett for the interview. And I might chime in here or there, uh, Dan would follow up well,

Brett Messing: (02:31)
Uh, I think Sean, Dan, thanks a lot for joining us. Um, I want to spend some time talking about gold and Bitcoin in your journey, but before we do, uh, in the pre-show, we were talking about Coinbase as IPO, some new highs being hit and you were looking at prices and seem pretty excited and said, there's a lot of stuff going on. So of all this stuff going on, like, you know, what do you want to talk about? What, you know, what, what do you think is most significant?

Dan Tapiero: (02:58)
Well, um, it's funny, I, I posed this question on Twitter a few months ago, early in the year saying, uh, asking what would be the most, uh, significant event of the year. And, um, you know, people had different comments and I, I forgot exactly the answers, but the Coinbase IPO I think was either first or, or, or very high up there, uh, in the ranking. And look, I think it's so important because look, it is the brand in the us. Um, it's a large company, as we saw profits are excellent. Um, you know, they're backed by some of the best VCs in the world. It's a real organization. It's very buttoned up. Um, and again, it'll be the first public company in the large public company in the crypto space. So it's definitely going to be a bellwether. Um, all that being said, I have to say that, you know, people forget that crypto blockchain, however you want to Bitcoin, however you want to describe it, uh, is a global business.

Dan Tapiero: (04:06)
And actually the, some of the most profitable businesses, larger much larger businesses than Coinbase are overseas. Um, so I would just say that, you know, there is a premium, I think on us companies just because there's scarcity right now. Uh, I suspect that over the next few years that'll change. Um, and also, you know, the degree to which U S companies are regulated and sort of ready for, let's say ready to be public, I think is greater than some of the foreign companies. Uh, yet I just think that as we watch this Coinbase IPO, we should be just cognizant of the fact that the U S really is still, you know, not, not a small percentage, but just not that larger percentage of the businesses, uh, that are in the digital asset ecosystem broadly speaking. Right. I mean, Coinbase is not even close to being the largest exchange. Right. You have Binance Hoby. Okay. Ex um, you know, now FTX, uh, all actually, uh, FTX growing faster, but you know, the, the first three certainly much larger. Um,

Brett Messing: (05:16)
Yeah, I hear that. I agree to have it tell you feel like in terms of, and we discovered spend most of our time staring a Bitcoin, you know, we haven't, uh, we haven't really evolved that far past it, it feels like us adoption is what's sort of driving Bitcoin. Do you do not at least today in 2021, would you not agree with that? Well,

Dan Tapiero: (05:38)
The U S always thinks it's us, that's driving everything. Um, I just, as an example, Hoby, so I should mention a little bit about 10 T so that I just, because, you know, I'll be saying things that maybe people think, well, where's he getting that from 10 T the private equity fund I run, we focus explicitly on mid to late stage companies in the da. So that's, that's all we do as far as I know, I think we're the first fund, um, first private equity fund to explicitly and only focus on these mid to late stage companies. Uh, those are companies that are, let's say over $400 billion in market valuation. They've established a revenue streams. They figured out how to make money. Um, there's a business, there's a mode around their business. In some cases, you know, they have hundreds, if not over a thousand employees, uh, and certainly tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.

Dan Tapiero: (06:34)
And so most of the funds that we know, you know, that you've heard of, uh, entry, sin and poly chain and Pantera, they all focus mostly on early stage seed, you know, a B round, and we're sort of more BC focused and later, um, and I give you that background just to say, um, that, you know, yes, uh, you know, yes, Coinbase, uh, is important, but, you know, as, just as an example, you know, you talk about then Coinbase has been important in the, in the U S for adoption purposes, but I mean, for instance, uh, Hoby the, the, um, the, an exchange in Asia that has 40% of its business, uh, in China, they did $2.5 trillion in volume in Q1 alone, right. That business made 700 million EBITDA just in Q1 alone. So, you know, and Binance is numbers are, are, are tremendous as well.

Dan Tapiero: (07:32)
I mean, last year, I think they did over a billion in EBITDA. So again, there's a lot of volume that's being traded. There were a lot of interesting businesses growing up all around the country. And I think it's just, you know, the U S yes, the U S institutional, uh, world is now showing interest, not clear to me what percentage they are, let's say of, of volume. Um, and I think you can, you can really go down and dig down into the chain and look at the chain analytics and figure out broadly where things are coming from, but again, Coinbase, uh, and then, you know, crack in, which is the second largest us exchange, um, are still, you know, kind of small compared to those three that I mentioned, right? So I put this more in a global, a global context, you know, so again, I'm excited about Coinbase.

Dan Tapiero: (08:25)
I think it's wonderful. Uh, they're going to do seven or $8 billion in revenue. So a hundred billion dollar valuation, 12 times revenue is, seems relatively reasonable. Um, you know, I, I'm a little concerned in a way for my own business, because if things, you know, as John said before, if Coinbase is going to 300 billion, it's going to make it a little more difficult for me, uh, to build positions in our portfolio. Um, I don't think it's going there tomorrow. Uh, there's some world in the future where it could go there, but, um, you know, I think a hundred billion with, uh, the revenues that they should do this year, I think is, you know, is reasonable.

Brett Messing: (09:06)
Hey, Dan, I'm a golden alum. I'm still digesting the idea of Coinbase being bigger than Goldman Sachs. We'll hold off on the 300 billion for awhile. Like, you know, a hundred is just fine. So I want to take a step back. So we we've just got to know each other. The first time I heard you speak was in the fall. And what, what really struck me was you're a guy who would not just somebody who invested in gold, but build a gold business based brick race Bitcoin. And there are so many people in the gold business, right. Who have not. Um, and so you're sort of, open-mindedness, you know, um, I found really interesting. So you just share that journey with, you know, with others here. Yeah,

Dan Tapiero: (09:52)
Sure. Um, you know, it's interesting, uh, you know, investors who have a hard money bias, um, often, you know, believe in gold and there is an aspect of Bitcoin, uh, that, that, that, that, that is supported by a hard money view. And we know this because obviously Bitcoin, there are only 21 million units or 18 and a half billion already been vined. Uh, there's a finite number of Bitcoin gold. Isn't exactly finite, but it's very scarce. And the supply increases very slowly. So just on a very sort of basic level, it's, you know, if you're an investor and you have a portfolio, those two things are in super limited supply, versus let's just say Fiat currency as an example, uh, where the central banks in the last year even have been really exploding, the money supplies, uh, us, China, Europe, we see central bank balance sheets really exploding.

Dan Tapiero: (10:51)
And I think with, you know, with reason because, you know, post COVID, I think they did the right thing that liquidity needed to be there. We had probably the greatest single shock that I can recall, uh, in my life, uh, to the markets and to the economy. And so they did the right thing, that being said, they've increased the supply massively. And so it doesn't take a genius to say, okay, there's a lot more of this, and there's not more of this other thing. And so the thing that is not being debased or the supply increased can go up in value. And so that's very, very simple terms. Um, I came to it because my physical gold business GBI, um, we in 2014, we integrated with a company called bit reserve, which is today uphold to the uphold wallet. And we were the first place, uh, in the world where you could buy and sell physical gold to buy and sell Bitcoin and ripple.

Dan Tapiero: (11:46)
And we had some young guys on the team back then they were really into this world, you know, for me, it was a nice idea. Uh, Bitcoin at the time was sort of small. Uh, we spent a year integrating with this company. So, uh, you know, I was part of that journey. And so I was very aware of it, but I wasn't really that engaged or that interested because as a macro guy and having been in the macro hedge fund world for 25 years, I was used to investing in bigger things, right. You know, currency and bond markets, commodity markets, and Bitcoin at the time was still very small. Um, so that was my initial introduction to it. And then in, uh, at the end of 2018, after the Bitcoin price had dropped, uh, 85%, I started getting interested in it because as a, as a macro guy, I've traded many bubbles, uh, and blow offs before.

Dan Tapiero: (12:40)
And so it typical bubble up. And then when something drops 85%, usually it's either going to zero, uh, or it's a buying opportunity. And so I just started buying in my own entity [inaudible], uh, detached capital. Um, again, it took me a lot of work. Uh, I spent literally in Q4 18 Q1, 19, probably six months there, uh, reading, honestly, it was like 10 hours a day read, you know, at least 10 books, hundreds of articles listened to podcasts, uh, really threw myself into this world and sort of fell down the rabbit hole. And when I did that, I realized that Bitcoin and this entire digital asset ecosystem is something that is much bigger than actually just gold. So I think gold is a fantastic hedge for the legacy financial system. And let me tell what I mean by that is that with bonds being neutered as an asset class now, I think, you know, a traditional portfolio that was 60 40, um, you know, from 1981 until now has done fantastically.

Dan Tapiero: (13:50)
And every time you've had a little wobble in the economy or things fell down, your bond saved you. Um, now I think in the next five years or so if we have a slow down, uh, at some point, um, you know, the bonds will not be able to protect you the way that they have in the last 30 years. So they can't really go much below zero in my view, um, and they don't yield anything. And so in my worldview gold, uh, in that scenario, gold could still go up 30, 40%. And so I think, um, you know, some people in the Bitcoin space are saying, oh, gold is worthless. It's being replaced by Bitcoin. I don't see that at all. I think it's a fantastic hedge for the legacy portfolio for the hundreds of trillions of dollars that are in the, you know, traditional or legacy world.

Dan Tapiero: (14:41)
Um, gold will be a great hedge for the asset side of your portfolio. So, however, Bitcoin, while also maybe a hard money, uh, hedge is also something much bigger. And I really think that Bitcoin is an invention. Uh, I say akin to the invention of the combustion engine. I think it's a con akin to the discovery of electricity. And I sort of came to that conclusion, you know, after that six months of work, because what I didn't realize in 14 that I realized when I really dug in was that the eight page white paper by Satoshi was really something miraculous that it solved a math problem that had not been solved for literally hundreds of years, this Byzantine General's problem, you know, the problem of distributed trust and therefore, how do two counter parties trust each other without an intermediary. And, you know, that problem you would think was, was simple.

Dan Tapiero: (15:39)
Like, just how do I send you some value without an intermediary, but, you know, mathematicians, scientists, cryptographers, they were sitting around for years trying to figure out how to do it. And they couldn't until the mechanism of Bitcoin, the Bitcoin network, uh, was explained, and I don't want to say invented, but then also explained in that eight page white paper. And so when you see that as like the crowning moment of 30 years of scientific researcher, like holy cow, all of this work came before the publishing of the white paper. This is something ingenious, something new. Um, and I just, you know, it was at that moment that I just thought, wow, this is much bigger than, uh, a store of value. This is much bigger than a hedge. This is basically the money protocol for the entire internet, right? So the internet, we send information back.

Dan Tapiero: (16:39)
Do you remember in the nineties, we used to be afraid to put our credit cards on it because the internet was invented without a security apparatus on top of it, the Bitcoin network is this Bulletproof security apparatus. It's never been hacked. I don't think I can ever be hacked. Now, the proof of work algorithm is too strong. Um, and so I just think that at some point down the line, everything that we have of value, everything will be on a blockchain somewhere in this digital asset ecosystem. And you'll have central bank digital currencies. There you'll have a whole bunch of different blockchains that do different things. And Bitcoin will be, you know, what role pal calls the pristine collateral of the, of the new system, right? It's the, it's the on, um, it's the, uh, um, undebatable asset that underpins all the other assets in this new digital world.

Dan Tapiero: (17:36)
And importantly, all of it will be fungible with each other. So, you know, there's a world one day where maybe you're walking around on your phone and everything that you own personally, a value will be on that phone. And we'll be divisible into small amounts and fungible with each other and sitting on a blockchain. So that's sort of a little bit of my sort of big picture worldview. And I think gold has a place to play really as a hedge for all those legacy assets, because you know, the dollar isn't going away, the whole world isn't going away. It's just that there's a slow transition to something that's better, right? That's, what's, that's, what's going on. I mean, look, the swift system that we use today for, for wires was invented in the forties or fifties, there is absolutely zero chance that in the next 10 years, we're gonna 10 years from now, we're going to be using a pre-internet technology like the zero chance. So,

Brett Messing: (18:35)
No, I, uh, there's a lot to unpack there. So I want to start with gold. So is gold a hedge because let me ask you something over the last decade, gold is up 10% and we've had two global crises, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus with the fed balance sheets gone from 3 billion to 8 billion, and gold is up 10% in a decade. It feels like it's, it's failed. Is that, is that a fair criticism?

Dan Tapiero: (19:09)
Um, you know, yeah. Yes and no, because, um, you know, gold, I always say this, and I've said this before gold never does what you wanted to do when you think it should do what it should. It just never does. And so in over the short term, gold can be extremely frustrating, but over longer periods of time, uh, gold has really done, uh, you know, excellent. And it really just depends on what your starting period is. Uh, if you started looking at things from 2015, uh, you know, 14, 15, 16 gold was at 1200, I think, uh, or even less now it's at 1700. So it's up roughly 50% in the last, you know, five, six years if

Brett Messing: (19:54)
You have your well. Right. I know,

Dan Tapiero: (19:57)
But I mean, that's the thing is if you look at assets from 2000 gold is go, is up 600%. If you look at, from January, 2000 until today, uh, I think gold is up even more than the S and P 500. So it really, I think it is. So I think it really depends where you, you know, where you start your holding period. Um, look, I, I it's been disappointing the past nine months. There's no question. I would have thought it would have done better. Um, but it hasn't, but I still think it's going to go up and make new highs within the next year. Uh, I just think it's one of these things. Sentiment is terrible. You know, a lot of people are thinking that Bitcoin is replacing gold. Uh, as I said, I think Bitcoin is something much, much bigger than gold, like eventually, um, you know, as is the da. So I don't, I'm disappointed, but I, I think if you're, um, you're trying to manage, uh, uh, a broad portfolio, let's say if you're an institution, uh, I think you need to have about 5%, uh, in gold, you know, as a, as a hedge. So

Brett Messing: (21:05)
I think the goal narratives been super helpful for Bitcoin, but, but, but I agree that I think it's much bigger than gold. I also think if you, if you took the owners of gold as one circle and the holders of Bitcoin of another, those there's very little overlap. I mean, I've been doing this a long time, I've known gold, right? And if I hadn't bought Bitcoin, that money would be in stocks and real estate, I would not have bought gold with it. I really, there are people like yourselves, other macro guys, you know, tutor Jones who would be in gold, right. Cause that's just, you're used to moving across these asset classes, but I think the overlap is really small. Do you agree?

Dan Tapiero: (21:42)
Well, I do. But again, you know, you speak from a completely American perspective. And so understand that only 8% of total world physical bar demand comes out of the U S so the U S is an irrelevant player on the world stage, um, on the gold world stage, uh, China and India consume about 60% of the world's physical gold. And if you throw in the emerging markets as well, that's probably up to 80%. So again, we, we have a us centric way of thinking about things about the dollar and about NASDAQ, but I think that's, that's basically over, it's not that the U S isn't a great place, but look, you and I both remember, I remember 1980, very clearly, 1990, uh, you know, 2000. So 1990, you had the entire communist block. They just emerged from zero. Uh, China was barely a country as an economic entity in the year 2000.

Dan Tapiero: (22:39)
And so relative to the growth in other places in the last 20, 30 years, you know, the world has grown up in the U S is, has not grown as much. So we come from a background where there really was only the U S and maybe Europe, and maybe a little bit of Asia. Um, but now that's changed. And this is a fully global world, um, where there are other parts of the world, especially Asia that are growing much more quickly that have different habits, different regulations. Uh, I don't think the Chinese are going to stop buying gold. I don't think the Indians are gonna stop buying gold and Americans never really had a strong proclivity for it. Um, I actually think that might even change, you know, as currency, um, you know, as currency, I don't want to say becomes worthless, but continues to not yield anything and as bonds okay. Which reflect currency plus duration, I think bonds potentially could end up being worthless, like as an asset class. Like I haven't owned any bonds for many, many years, and I don't know why anyone would own any bonds. And so for me out of bonds, one of the natural moves out of bonds. I'm talking about treasuries, of course, is, uh, is into gold. So do you see what I'm saying?

Brett Messing: (23:58)
Yeah. I want to make one point, then I've hardly left my house in 13 months. So I think you have to excuse if I have a parochial and not a global things. Yeah. But it's not you specifically. I think it's everybody

Dan Tapiero: (24:11)
And tutor and guys like me, we lived our life so much as global macro people in terms of, you know, focusing on opportunities all around the world, that really didn't matter so much, you know, where the opportunity was. We were looking around the world. And so, uh, you know, maybe that meant we missed a Google's move or Amazon's a rally or whatever it is. But, um, I think that framework is very helpful and understanding why also Bitcoin and the digital asset ecosystem are so important that global. Yeah.

Brett Messing: (24:49)
So, you know, in, in a prior life, I actually was deputy mayor of LA and I served as the ex-officio member on lasers, which is the LA city pension plan. And I was involved. And this was a decade ago in reducing the target return for the pension fund, which, you know, requires making adjustments to the budget. Um, as you point out the 60, 40 portfolio is dead. Right. I don't know how they could be making fixed income allocations. Uh, w w where does that money go? Right. And, and how does that money find its way into Bitcoin or does it, I

Dan Tapiero: (25:25)
Think it has been finding its way into Bitcoin. I mean, look, I'll just tell you my personal experience. Uh, I run the investment committee for an endowment, you know, as part of my charitable, uh, you know, time and, uh, it's, it's a relatively large endowment for a school. Um, and we went to zero bonds about three years ago and Q1 19, thankfully, um, you know, I was able to, with some other people on the committee to convince the committee to put 1% of the entire endowment into Bitcoin and the digitalized ecosystem. So we followed the Wences Casares, uh, get off zero, you know, just put, you know, mark use, go and Pompe talking about, get off zero, just put 1% of your portfolio into Bitcoin. And so we did that. Um, and you know, it's been fantastic obviously from that period till now, but in a way that was sort of a little bit of our replacement of bonds.

Dan Tapiero: (26:25)
We also have between a five and 10% allocation to gold, whereas five years ago, we didn't. So I think balancing the Bitcoin, no, no, no, we're not gonna, I, you know, I've said, look, we'll look at it when it hits three, 400,000, which has been my target, you know, and I've said that publicly for, you know, at least two years, um, you know, if it gets there, we'll think about it. And then maybe in five years, uh, we'll think about it again, but it's allowed the endowment to outperform as well, because as you know, these very conservative, uh, endowments, uh, and we're maybe a little less conservative, but you know, they're not, um, uh, they're not used to actually making much alpha, right. You know, you stick to your benchmark and if you outperform it by a percent, that's a big deal. And all of a sudden we have this asset class that's outperforming, you know, that's driving that, uh, the performance like significantly more.

Dan Tapiero: (27:23)
So I think slowly the money does come out of bonds. Um, and some of it will go into equity. There's some defensive equities out there you can own, um, maybe a little bit moves into some corporate bonds. I don't really love that, but I do think gold could potentially have a Renaissance in the next five years. And I know no one's saying that, but that's largely because there are no advocates or very few advocates for gold out there because the average age of the owners is like 65. And many of them have just, you know, they've just sort of checked out of the day-to-day world. Whereas on Twitter, you have, you know, 10,000 people talking about how great Bitcoin is, uh, you know, every minute of the day and how it's going to replace gold, et cetera. And there's some, I don't want to say replace, but you know, it's certainly one alternative, but I think you should own both. And I think they have different functions in your portfolio. It's not so crazy. And to be ideological about investment should tell you that there's a problem there, right? Because you shouldn't be ideological about investments, you should make right investments that make sense for your portfolio. So then I

Brett Messing: (28:34)
Want to merge a couple of these things, your macro background, the big Bitcoin and the psycho, which is, it seems like many people I speak to in Bitcoin are expecting this cycle to be like past cycles, right. Where we had the having and May, 2020, what's the peak going to be? How far is the pull? Gack back going to be other share my own perspective. I know you won't, you'll give me your years, regardless is all I know is, is not going to be the same. You know what I mean? I'm not, I'm not, it could be shorter. We get of a bear market next week. It could be, there's no evidence to suggest that, but I just think it's very, very unlikely that the cycle is substantially similar to the prior ones. Um,

Dan Tapiero: (29:20)
You mean, in what sense that, you know, we've had five or six corrections of 80%, is that what you're

Brett Messing: (29:25)
Talking when people are saying, well, the peak usually comes between 14 months and 18 months after having right. Go up this amount. So there's a, there's a, there's a time aspect to it. There's a price and decline aspect to it. Um, and I think there's there, you know, it's, everyone's got the same trade on and whenever I see everyone at the same trade, it usually worked. Doesn't go that way. And, but what do you think?

Dan Tapiero: (29:50)
I, I completely agree. I mean, you know, I completely agree that, uh, there'll be some correction at some point, but, uh, I don't know that it's following any specific route or path. I mean, the surprise would be to be honest, the surprise would be if we got up to 100,000 and just stayed there for a few years, you know, more or less like give or take 20, 30%, uh, or whatever, 40, I mean, just up and down around that number, that would be the surprise. Um, so I sort of think a little bit the way you do, uh, but could we also go up to 300,000 and then correct back down to 50? Sure. I mean, there's no, you know, it's still, you know, I say an emerging asset class because only like one to 2% of the world have crypto wallets or accounts. Right.

Dan Tapiero: (30:43)
And so that sort of reminds me more of like the internet in its early stages, 19 96, 19 96, 1% of the world had access to the internet. Right. So, and by 2006, it was 15%. So that's a 15 X in 10 years. I think that this world, this digital asset ecosystem I think can grow certainly 15 times over the next 10 years. Like I, that's why I still think it's relatively early, it's an early asset class. And therefore you can't discount that it could do that 300 and come back down to 50. Right. I just don't know. Um, I just recommend people not to trade it. I think you have to allocate a percentage of your portfolio, have a target and come back to it. And even as a professional money manager, having traded, you know, global macro for all those years, I think, unless you're doing a 24 7 and you're professional, you should not be sort of moonlighting trading crypto. I mean, it's, it's very, I think it would be very difficult.

Brett Messing: (31:50)
It seems untradeable right. It seems like, I mean, you know, you also have event risk, right. You know, you, you have your position on, and then a line Musk comes in, right. Or name whatever event may or may not happen. It, you know, it just doesn't seem like, uh, like anyone who's winning, winning, you know, I think, you know, you just, just, just gotten lucky. Um, w what, what do you see driving us to your price target? W w what events are you looking forward to see, to know that we're on pace for that?

Dan Tapiero: (32:21)
Uh, I think there are so many, um, look, one of them, uh, uh, one of them, I think obviously will be central bank and government adoption, right. Um, corporate adoption, which is what sailor has been pushing, I think, uh, is sort of one level. Again, he's a very advanced, uh, tech focused guy and to have Elon mosque and, you know, Jack Dorsey and sailor putting some of their bounds sheet into Bitcoin, they're at the very cutting, cutting edge of it, right. Massachusetts Mutual's allocation. Um, last year, I think it was a huge sign that you could have the beginning of sight, very conservative people. You ask, what are these guys doing, you know, with all their bonds? Well, here, Massachusetts mutual is doing a toe dip. So I think that it's just the first ending for the institutions, the corporate end. I don't think it's even started, uh, in terms of central banks, um, you know, and government.

Dan Tapiero: (33:26)
So that could certainly very easily take us up to 200, you know, potentially 200, 300,000, um, you know, just that forget about even, you know, increasing global adoption and all these places forget about even, you know, um, you know, uh, banking the unbanked, right? That's the whole idea that, you know, in the emerging markets, they'll take up crypto more easily because, you know, they'll bypass the, you know, the first stage of, you know, the banking of being, you know, countries that don't have proper banking systems will, you know, jump through that and, and, and go straight to crypto. Um, there, there are a whole bunch of variables, but just those two alone could probably take you up there, uh, to 300, because I'll tell you where a $1 trillion valuation now. So it's just saying, going to 5 trillion, right? And if you look at total assets out there they're $500 trillion of value in total assets. I think they're $192 trillion of cash. Plus cash flows, fixed income in the world. So we're talking about going from 1 trillion to 5 trillion, not that big a deal, that would be a 3% exit as of a two and a half percent exit is from cash and from bonds, right. Just that right.

Brett Messing: (34:47)
So Dan, on the micro strategy corporate event, I thought Ross, Steven said something very interesting, which is, he said that where we are in Bitcoin is that the left tail has gone, right. We've taken zero out of the equation. I guess my question is a two-part one is, do you agree with that? Uh, and his view obviously was if you, if you cut the left tail off and Bitcoin is massively undervalued, um, and secondarily, if we're wrong, and this is like a video that we wish would never, you know, be seen again, because we're just so wrong. Um, why are we wrong?

Dan Tapiero: (35:23)
So I agree with him that it's impossible for it to go to zero. That was the reason that I sort of decided to focus on this or deciding that I was going to focus on this rule for the next 10 to 15 years. Because, um, you know, after doing my research, I just thought some intervention of this significance just can't go to zero. And that, that, you know, people are wrong really just because they haven't done the work and they haven't realized the significance of, you know, of what's been invented. So I completely agree. That was sort of one of the main reasons I really got stuck in, because I believe there's zero chance that go to zero now. Uh, so I don't think it can go to zero and you're saying, so what would be, what would be something, uh, that could happen that would, I would be wrong? We would be wrong about what about it going to zero?

Brett Messing: (36:17)
Oh, about, you know, not, not, not zero necessarily, but, you know, it's, you know, it becomes, it returns to being a niche asset trading between a couple of thousand and 10,000 in perpetuity like this, this, this, this turns out to be just a moment, right. You know, assets.

Dan Tapiero: (36:36)
Well, you know, I would have said in the first five or six years, that that was possible. Um, but I really, I, you know, the, the network effects have been too big. Um, I think the first five, six years it was vulnerable and it was still small. And, you know, maybe, you know, it could have been, uh, attacked and hacked potentially, but it really survived already. So it's really like, at what point do we actually stop saying, Hey, where are we wrong? We're going to go back to 10,000. At what point do we say, this is an invention akin to the invention of the combustion engine. And in fact, maybe this thing Bitcoin can go to 10 trillion in value or 20 trillion. And that the digital asset ecosystem is going to encompass $500 trillion of value. I think that's more rare. You know, when, when you said to me before, you know, it's not going to happen the way that it is before when everyone thinks something.

Dan Tapiero: (37:38)
I mean, I've done hundreds of calls and meetings for 10 T you know, my fun. And very often I get asked this, the, you know, the same questions can the government attack. It will, they will. They ban it. It uses a lot of energy, all these typical things that on Twitter, they call FID. Um, and these questions have been answered by guys a lot smarter than me in pieces, a lot longer than any of us are gonna reap. And so to me, all of that still is a sign that we're right about things, right? Like there's still so many doubters, there's such a wall of worry to climb. Um, I see zero chance of zero. And I think the more, you know, the, the other, the flip side question is how many people have you spoken to the talk about the DAA and Bitcoin in those terms as the money protocol for the entire internet one day.

Dan Tapiero: (38:31)
And I would say, you know, one out of a hundred, and then how many people say to me, can it go to zero? It's probably like 30 out of 130 to 40, 30% think that, you know, it still has this problem or that problem. Um, so I know that doesn't really answer the question, but I sorta think we're beyond that, uh, question. Like it's already with us, we have central bank, digital currencies. They're going to move around in this new digital world. Like the central banks have already validated it for you. So I don't know why it would go to zero, right. Although

Brett Messing: (39:12)
I have to tell you just, just, just today, you know, we were in contract with a pretty large wealth management firm. You know, we have a Bitcoin fund, that's conditional investors. And they were basically, NFW no crypto. We think Bitcoins go to zero. And I was like, really? I mean, this is a, this is, you know, I'm not going to out them because it would make them look really stupid. So I'm not going to say who it is, but you know, it's a pretty name brand place, so it, it's still out there. Um, but you know,

Dan Tapiero: (39:43)
Let me tell you what, when it's not out there anymore is when we have to work. Right. Well,

Brett Messing: (39:49)
The thing is interesting, you know, we were trying to, because we're mandated by regulators to provide quote balance, right? So I was looking for, you know, thoughtful anti-big coin pieces and they don't exist. In other words, if, if you do the kind of exhaustive research that you've done in iPod, you find ad hoc attacks, right. By folks on Bitcoin, you won't find a 20 page paper on why Bitcoin isn't, isn't a, you know, attractive investible asset. Or if you have, please send it to me. Cause I haven't found them.

Dan Tapiero: (40:23)
Yeah. I mean, look, I think in the first five or six years, there were some things out there. I mean, no, I know I, and I just think that, and maybe in the first five or six year, their fixers, there were some valid complaints. I mean, for a long time people said, no one uses Bitcoin. I can't buy coffee with Bitcoin. Right. It's not worth anything. Um, like it's not transactable, but that really wasn't, you know, that's not that w that's not really why it's important that that's not the sort of dominant narrative. Um, and I think it took going through many questionable use cases in narratives before getting to where we are now, right.

Brett Messing: (41:05)
In the early days you couldn't buy coffee, but John and I bought meth with our Bitcoin. So John, do you want to launch a few questions at Dan before we wrap it up?

John Darcie: (41:17)
I would love to. Um, so then you launched 10 T it's a, from what I understand, the $200 million fund to invest in crypto companies, you were talking about, you know, your concern that if, if Coinbase goes off at 150 or $200 billion valuation, which by the time this airs Coinbase will be trading live, uh, so we'll either look really smart or really dumb, uh, when that takes place. But you're, you've raised this fund to invest in the digital asset cryptocurrency ecosystem is that over-complicating things, should people just be investing in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and if there's any other blue chip products or protocols out there, why invest in the picks and shovels rather than just the pure play, you know, apex, predator, coins. Yeah,

Dan Tapiero: (42:03)
Look, I think, uh, and I tell this to all my perspectives, you know, uh, have 50% in Bitcoin, uh, and 50% in 10 T because it's a different, it's a different exposure with a very different risk reward profile. So like, as an example, in 2018, when Bitcoin went down, 85% of basket of these companies would have broadly maintain their value. So also, you know, a private equity fund invests over 12 to 24 months and we have a 5, 6, 7, 8 year holding period. And so, you know, a lot of people, uh, are not comfortable holding one thing. Um, you know, look, yes, Bitcoin is the thing. Bitcoin is fantastic. I would even say if you want, maybe do 85% Bitcoin, 15 or 80, 20, you know, 20 in, in Ethereum. Um, you know, I think the other cryptocurrencies are really more like early stage technology projects. And I think they're for VCs, uh, I don't know that they're for the average sort of retail guy out there who certainly doesn't have the capacity or capability to do the deep, the deep dive, and you don't know how to take apart, uh, you know, have the background in, uh, you know, programming.

Dan Tapiero: (43:20)
And I just, just, there are so many it's so discipline, interdisciplinary, this, this area that, um, there's more stuff that you don't know than what you know. And so the picks and shovels bet, um, I liked because it has just a very different risk profile. Uh, yeah, maybe we underperformed Bitcoin, maybe we outperformed Bitcoin. I don't know. Um, but for a guy from my sort of traditional, uh, background to really believe that I could make a five or 10 X on something, uh, is incredible and I'm happy with that. And I'll let the, you know, the young guys can play an Ave and uni swap and, you know, in graph and make 20 bucks

John Darcie: (44:05)
RP at 20 cents or, and

Dan Tapiero: (44:07)
Make, you know, 2500% return or 25000% return. I think that's wonderful. But again, you know, the VC model is more invest in 10 things, nine go to zero and one is Google. And my approach and my background is a macro investor. I want to make a broad sector bet because I want to, you know, I want to have exposure, uh, to this, to the value in the digital asset ecosystem going up. That's my, that's my bet. And I don't want to have any one thing I don't want to just don't exchange as we've divided the world up into three buckets for us, it's digital asset ecosystem gateways, uh, next generation financial services companies, and then blockchain infrastructure companies. And we're going to have a portfolio of three to five companies in each bucket. And my bed is, is that over the next five, six years, that that will appreciate, and that I'm not going to have to, you know, worry about the volatility or the businesses going under, as I said, they're already, I think mature, some of them are coming public soon. Um, so it's just, you know, different investors have different risk profiles, but if you were to say to me, Dan, you know, I'm just going to have everything in Bitcoin. I'd be like, oh, that's good too. Right. It just depends. You know what you're trying to do with your portfolio.

John Darcie: (45:30)
It's amazing. The way the conversation around Bitcoin has evolved. We're talking about it right now as sort of the equity sleeve of a traditional portfolio. Whereas the venture investments are almost like the, you know, the alternative sleeve and it's amazing how quickly Bitcoin has gone from this speculative asset to a that's the bellwether, you know, steady, you know, allocate most of your, your capital to that, um, to that asset. We'll talk about Ethereum for a second. So we spent a lot of time talking about Bitcoin. Ethereum is sort of the silver to Bitcoin's gold, you know, deputy here in the cryptocurrency world, but it's obviously performed incredibly well over the last year, uh, including in recent days, we're taping this, uh, on, on Tuesday, April 13th. But, um, what do you view a theory of in terms of it, the, the pluses and the minuses relative to Bitcoin, obviously Bitcoin's immutable supply of 21 million Bitcoins is a very attractive to people. Uh, but what about Ethereum? Do you like, and not like relative to Bitcoin?

Dan Tapiero: (46:29)
Yeah. Um, you know, I don't know so much that it's silver. Uh, I think it's its own thing. I think it's a phenomenal, uh, you know, I mean, I call it an invention as well, but I mean, it's unbelievably complex. I mean, it's programmable money. Uh, you know, you can embed smart contracts into money. That phrase there, uh, is probably not understood by 99% of the people out there. What does that even mean? Embedded smart contracts, uh, you know, in programmable money, it just, it's crazy. It's like, um, so I mean, I think it's quite a phenomenal thing. It has a different use case really then than Bitcoin, as I said, Bitcoin, I think is that pristine collateral of the new system. It, you know, as you mentioned, it is defined, the network effects are unbelievably powerful. It's the brand of what it is. Uh, but I think a theory, its own thing and is equally phenomenal in its own way.

Dan Tapiero: (47:33)
So I don't, and you know, you know what some of these things are, you know, programmers find it easier to, to build on. It has a lot of flexibility. Yes. Maybe there's a little more supply that's out there, but we'll see what happens with ease too. You know, there's talk about it becoming a deflationary currency. I don't know why they're doing that. I guess they want to try to outbid coin Bitcoin, which doesn't make any sense to me. Uh, you know, a theory should be what it is and, and stay with the integrity of that. Um, but that one is clearly, you know, it's where sort of Bitcoin was maybe four or five years ago in terms of its maturity. Um, I don't see that as a science project anymore. Look, even Vitalik said, uh, on one of the interviews I listened to a podcast a few months ago, he said, look, Bitcoin is 100% complete.

Dan Tapiero: (48:23)
It's done, it's mature. He said it theory is like 60% there. We still, you know, we still have things that we need to, you know, overcome et cetera. But, um, I mean, I think it's a super powerful thing. I mean, just look at what's happening with the NFTs. Those are all on mostly ERC 20 tokens. Right? So, um, the, the reason I just want one thing I didn't mention regarding your last question, I would, I would say is that the bet that I have on this da eat, you know, why I like it is because it's also a bet on all the things of value, uh, or all the things that will be moved into the digital asset ecosystem that we are not even aware of yet. So as an example, NFTs didn't exist really six months ago. Now you have NFTs going from a hundred to a thousand dollars to a hundred thousand dollars, you know, to millions, of course, people 69 million. So like no one could have predicted that a year ago. And so Bitcoin is wonderful. Bitcoin can go up a lot, but you know, having a bet on all the things that are going to develop in the future that we're not even aware of yet to me is a different type of bet. So anyway, I just bring that back in. Then

John Darcie: (49:43)
We could go on for probably hours with you talking about the global macro and geopolitical situation with Bitcoin, Peter teal had some recent, interesting comments on that front. We're going to wrap that up for today. We'd like to keep these around 45 to 50 minutes. So it's been a pleasure to have you on salt talks. We'll hopefully have you on again in the future. And we'd love to have you at our live salt conference in September. We're getting back to our live in person gatherings, assuming everything continues on the same trajectory it is with the pandemic. So thanks again for joining us. Brian, you have a final word for Dan before we let him go.

Brett Messing: (50:14)
No, it was feeling great. You know, I was looking forward to it and it, uh, it's been fantastic. Thanks Dan. Thanks.

John Darcie: (50:21)
So you guys are two, two brown guys, uh, you know, bonding here, so great to have you guys together, but thank you again, Dan, and thank you everybody for tuning into today's salt talk, uh, with Dan Tappy arrow. Um, just a reminder, if you missed any part of this talk or any of our previous talks, including we have an entire series of these conversations on cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, digital assets, uh, you can access those on our website. It's salt.org backslash talks and on our YouTube channel, which is called salt tube. And we have an entire playlist again, that's dedicated to these digital asset oriented talks, which I might add are generally our most viewed episodes. Even though we've talked to Titans across hedge funds and private equity and venture capital and public policy, these Bitcoin and digital asset oriented talks continue to be the most popular, which I guess gives you an idea about why we're seeing the price action that we're seeing in Bitcoin, Ethereum and other digital assets.

John Darcie: (51:15)
We're on Twitter as well. Please follow us at salt conference is where we're most active in the social media sphere, but we're also on LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook. Please spread the word about these salt talks. We love educating people about what's taking place in the digital asset ecosystem. And like Dana said akin to the invention of the combustion engine. We could be at the very early stages still of this revolution, but on behalf of Brett and the entire salt team, this is John Darcie signing off from salt talk for today. We hope to see you back here again soon.

Cathie Wood: Investing in Disruptive Innovation | SALT Talks #199

“In the sharing economy, if you don’t give, you don’t get. We are sharing our research because we want to be part of the communities that are doing the research. We get so much back from them.”

Cathie Wood is a legendary investor and most recently founder of ARK Invest. ARK is focused on disruptive innovation that can identify large scale public market investment opportunities centered around DNA sequencing, robotics, AI, energy storage and blockchain technology.

For years, technologies like DNA sequencing were too costly and time-intensive to warrant real investment. Investors did not own enough in the innovation markets because up until recently, the advancement of technology had not reached viable investment levels. Also, there was not enough research to build on, so ARK set out to create an open research ecosystem, making it the first sharing economy company in the asset management space. “In the sharing economy, if you don’t give, you don’t get. We are sharing our research because we want to be part of the communities that are doing the research. We get so much back from them.”

An open research ecosystem creates a collaborative environment where researchers and investors can get quicker crowd-sourced feedback. This is vital in making necessary corrections or pivots early on. “In the world of exponential growth, if you make an incorrect assumption early on and you carry it on too long, you’ll make an exponential mistake.”

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Cathie Wood.png

Cathie Wood

Founder & CEO

ARK investment Management

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

Nisa Amoils: Blockchain Solutions to ESG Problems | SALT Talks #188

“When I got into venture capital, I noticed female founders were only getting 2% the venture funding available… they’re under-shopped and undervalued, yet they overdeliver. As well as a moral imperative argument, it’s a real economic argument.”

Nisa Amoils is a VC investor, focusing on fintech, blockchain and crypto. Nisa Amoils is author of the best-seller Wtf Is Happening: Women Tech Founders on the Rise.

Women founders receive only 2% of available venture funding yet their companies consistently over deliver. There is a large community of women founders that represent huge financial value. The absence of women-led venture funds plays a major role in this disparity. They’re more likely to invest in women-led companies that grow into success stories, creating a positive cycle. “As well as a moral imperative argument, it’s a real economic argument.”

Blockchain technology serves as an agent of change in the democratization of access to capital and also in revamping entire industry systems. Areas like supply chain management of healthcare, climate change and law represent huge opportunities. Blockchain tech and crypto will create transparency, efficiency and automation across global institutions and drive the tokenization of illiquid assets.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Nisa Amoils.jpeg

Nisa Amoils

Managing Partner

A100x

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

Rachel Pether: (00:07)
Hi, and welcome back to salt talks. My name is Rachel Pether and I'm a senior advisor at SkyBridge, as well as being the MC for salt and thought leadership forum and networking platform that encompasses business technology and politics. So it talks as a series of digital interviews with some of the world's foremost investors, creators and thinkers, and just as we do at our physical salt events, we aim to provide our audience a window into the minds of subject matter experts. Now, today we're going to be focusing on women, founders and tech and the democratization of venture capital. And I'm very excited to be speaking to a different of mine. Nisa miles Nisa is many things. She's a venture capital investor, a securities lawyer, a board member, and a former entrepreneur. She authored the best seller. WTF is happening. Women tech founders on the rise, and she's a regular panelist on business channels, as well as a contributor for Forbes and blockchain and magazine. She holds a business degree from the university of Michigan and a law degree from the university of Pennsylvania. So Nissa, welcome to salt tool.

Nisa Amoils: (01:22)
Thank you so much for having me Rachel. So nice to see you.

Rachel Pether: (01:26)
I apologize for profusely summarizing your biography. So maybe we could start by just giving me a bit more background about you and who you

Nisa Amoils: (01:35)
Are. Absolutely. So I've been in venture capital for the past 10 years for the past five years. I've been investing almost exclusively in FinTech and blockchain and crypto companies prior to getting into investing. I, as you noted, um, had a stint as an entrepreneur. I also worked in media, under Barry Diller, um, at, is what was started as NBC universal and then became interactive Corp I C. And back then we were investing in the first wave of internet disruption, um, as to how we communicate as opposed to no we're investing in the internet of trust or value. And, uh, yes, I practiced securities law, um, for a number of years before getting into media. And that background has been extremely helpful in terms of investing in, um, financial services and crypto,

Rachel Pether: (02:40)
Right? Want to come back to that point? You made about the internet of trust or value, but before we do that, you did author this book, a WTF is happening, woman tech founders on the rise. And I know you're very passionate about women and technology. And you spent a number of years researching and writing this book. Maybe you could talk me through, I guess, a, the process for that. And B what were some of your key findings from that book?

Nisa Amoils: (03:10)
Absolutely. When I got into venture capital, I noticed that female founders were only getting 2% of the venture funding that was available and it just didn't make sense to me. And I saw all these great female founders that were building in hard tech or disruptive tech, uh, areas like artificial intelligence, virtual reality robotics, and in particular blockchain, because I focus so heavily there. And so I saw them out performing. I actually see diverse teams always are performing, and I thought it was an investment opportunity to bring to light. And so the book profiles, 13 female founders in those areas, but really what it does is makes the business case for investing in, um, with a lot of data about how they all perform and they're under shopped undervalued yet they over-deliver. And to me, it was an arbitrage opportunity for investors. In addition to the moral imperative argument, this is a real economic argument as well.

Nisa Amoils: (04:22)
And so the findings really were, um, that you don't need to have a stem degree to go into these areas. Um, science, technology, engineering, math, um, you can tangentially learn along the way you can start companies. You know, I wanted to profile the women so that they could be role models for other women that were coming up in, in later generations. And that as long as you're passionate, you have grit. Um, the timing is right. Um, the market size is right. Um, you can really have some great winners here. So that was, uh, that was also meant to disrupt a bit of the systemic barriers that hold women back in terms of fund management and, um, access to capital access to opportunities. And that is, that is what I wanted to try and change. And that, that is ultimately what led me to blockchain technology as an agent of change for democratization of access to capital. And so when you started

Speaker 3: (05:39)
Writing or researching the book, and you mentioned the tiny percentage of fund funding that went to women founders, how long ago was this, that you started the process and how have you seen, or how has that number changed since that period? I started

Nisa Amoils: (05:56)
Writing book in 2018. It came out in March, 2019. And since we've had the pandemic, I have seen the number of women drop the funding that goes to female founders has gone even lower. Um, and I think this has been well publicized is that a lot of women have had to drop out of the workforce because of childcare and other, uh, issues. And so that's, uh, yeah, we're, we're going backwards instead of going forwards.

Speaker 3: (06:32)
Yeah, that's definitely one another, one of the unfortunate side effects of the pandemic. I do want to go back to the points you made around access to capital and democratization and move to what you're focusing on now with, with a a hundred times and the focus there really being on democratizing finance. So can you talk me through exactly what this is and then also go into why is it so difficult for the average investor to access venture capital?

Nisa Amoils: (07:07)
Absolutely. So a 100 X ventures is a venture fund. It's a rolling fund that we've done with angel list, which means that each series in the fund can be viewed as its own fund individually, where investors in the fund can have more optionality in the quarters that they subscribe to. And in the amounts that they subscribed angel list serves as a backend service provider for everything that normally you would have a fund administrator, an auditor, a lawyer, et cetera, and they handle it one stop shop, which makes it easier for everybody it's, it's like they've automated the fun process, and that allows you to lower the barrier to entry while it's still right now, um, limited to accredited investors. Those laws are also changing and expanding. In fact, in the us yesterday, um, they raised the amount of reg CF to 5 million from 1 million for unaccredited investors to invest in these types of things.

Nisa Amoils: (08:17)
So that's very encouraging. They brought in the definition of what an accredited investor is, so that it's not only based on your wealth, it's also based on your sophistication and knowledge. So I think the trend is that, uh, we're broad, we're broadening the access Angeles just facilitated that. And we are able to offer women and minorities access to the fund at a very low minimum that would not normally be possible. What that does is it allows them to learn about blockchain and crypto and all the other digital and the applications there. And it allows them to participate in that wealth creation opportunity, which I personally believe is one of the biggest of our lifetimes. And they've been traditionally left out of it. If you look at all the lists of, of who's invested and who's, um, you know, the Forbes lists of, you know, there's no women on it. So, uh, we want to be able to change that through this vehicle and offer that opportunity. Yeah, that's great

Speaker 3: (09:25)
That it can be used as an educational resource as well. Cause there's really nothing better than actually trial and error, I guess when it comes to investing. So that's great. People can dip their toe in. And you mentioned that it's easier for women and minorities on the investor side. Do you have any particular diversity focus on the investing side as well?

Nisa Amoils: (09:49)
We don't, we're not saying that we're a gender lens fund, meaning that we invest in men. Of course, we, if you look at the companies we have invested in, many of them are started by men, but because it's private equity and venture capital, so much of it is about your sourcing and your networks. So because I'm part of so many groups, women's groups, women in blockchain, et cetera, by definition, I'm getting, um, you know, female founders coming to me, uh, where as a lot of times they don't know where else to go. Um, so yes, we will be investing in women and minorities as well. Great. And

Speaker 3: (10:33)
I wanted to just go back to one of the points you made at the very start when you were talking about this internet of trust and value and died down

Rachel Pether: (10:41)
A bit deeper and to

Speaker 3: (10:43)
Blockchain and the theory of, and I know you're very passionate about these technological technology breakthroughs. What has been in your opinion, the real value that's been created through this digitization of finance?

Nisa Amoils: (10:59)
Yeah, so I think you're seeing waves of innovation right now, and it started with the ICO's and, um, the run-up in crypto prices, Bitcoin Ethereum, especially this year, as you've seen the institutional stampede finally come in, uh, one after the other, uh, uh, traditional wall street. So, uh, most of the headlines go to the disruption of traditional finance and decentralized finance, and those are great innovations. Um, there's no question that they, the technology is making, um, antiquated systems, you know, you have T plus two settlement for instance, to, um, you know, there, it's making it much more, um, transparent, efficient, automated, and liquid. Um, so of course, tokenization and, um, of illiquid assets, uh, will continue to happen. Uh, however, what's not as well publicized is the use of the technology in other industries, in other areas of disruption that have real impact solving real world problems.

Nisa Amoils: (12:19)
And that's a lot of what we want to focus on at a 100 X is for instance, the pandemic has exposed a lot of different problems with our supply chains being just in time with our healthcare system, whether that be data and tracing and privacy issues and identity, or whether that be coordination of clinical trials around the world, um, to save money and time, or whether that be vaccination, rollout and distribution, right? So there are so many different areas of healthcare alone that, um, can use the technology to solve some of those problems. Uh, on the other hand, there are so many different areas of climate change that can benefit from the technology as well, such as carbon credit offsets. Um, there are areas of legal title, uh, insurance, um, that are being disrupted using the technology, for instance, automobile, um, total loss claims that, um, can be expedited from 50 days down to one day using the technology and from paper systems from the 1970s. And then that gets rid of cars that are sitting in landfills, um, and it creates a better land use, uh, situation. And so that's almost a secondary effect of that has impact. Um, so we're very interested in sustainability ESG STGs impact, and we're always looking to align with founders that have that same mentality and that can use the technology for good as well. That's great. And

Speaker 3: (14:10)
On the, um, on the healthcare side that you mentioned, what would be some examples of technology that would improve either that supply chain or that process? Have you looked at one specifically?

Nisa Amoils: (14:25)
Yes. So as I mentioned, the clinical trials, um, reduction of cost and coordination of, uh, efforts that are going on around the world that involve many different stakeholders where blockchain technology can be used to coordinate and track, you know, any kind of, um, it's immutable, right? So, so the records can be, uh, secure and they can be, um, not tampered with et cetera. Um, the supply chain example that's often used is, is about our food, um, and the provenance of where that is coming from. If you eat something and you get sick, you know, where, what, what countries did it stop in? What was the origin who touched it? Um, you know, you, you can feel secure and safe that when you go to your local supermarket and it has a verified organic label, um, that's trackable with a code that, that gets you on chain data. Um, that's a huge breakthrough in terms of, of where things are coming from, and that, that applies to medical devices as well. Um, or any kind of supply chain, distribution efforts, um, vaccines, et cetera. Mm. And you mentioned

Speaker 3: (15:51)
When you were talking about some of the examples about, it's not always sort of a primary impact in terms of ESG, but there's often, I guess, secondary impacts as well. So maybe you could tell me a bit more about what impact looks like for you and how you sort of define it and consider it when you're looking at investments.

Nisa Amoils: (16:15)
Right? So that was the example about the second order effects of the land, um, usage ha happening from title insurance. Um, another example is a company we're going to invest in that's providing climate data to real estate developers and insurance companies based on artificial intelligence and blockchain. And they will be able to predict based on the patterns that are happening, where, um, some weather related effects might occur and that gets priced into the transaction. Um, so that is something we consider impact that, that, um, is, you know, anything that's trying to help the world solve these, some of these real problems and make the world a better place, um, can be defined as impact.

Rachel Pether: (17:15)
I think that's an excellent definition. And then if you take all these, these big themes and the things that you're passionate about, so diversity and, and blockchain technology, how can blockchain and technology be used as a tool for diversity,

Nisa Amoils: (17:34)
Exactly how we're using it and also through security token offerings, um, to give you an example of that there a few years ago, there was, um, a transaction with one of the trophy properties, uh, real estate pro hotels, um, in the world. And they tokenized part of the hotel and that investment was made available to any accredited investor, as opposed to the insiders working on real estate, private equity that it would normally go to, and that allowed them to have investors from around the world. And it allowed accredited investors to get in at a very low access point. And through tokenization, after your one-year lockup, you can trade that token on exchanges. And what I've seen in the three years since is that, um, I did invest and that token has appreciated in value despite the pandemic, um, trading very well. And I consider that a success because it's a wealth creation opportunity that went to somebody like me that would not have had access to it before. And I think that trend is going to continue and allow unaccredited investors, some access as well. That we're S we're seeing that, um, with the vaccine Jeff and reggae plus, but I think, um, it wouldn't have been possible without blockchain technology before. And so there are, uh, also, um, alternative ways to raise capital and capital formation that democratize the process. So for founders that go to access venture capital, that normally cannot access it, they can use these different tools to raise capital. And that's exciting. No, that's

Speaker 3: (19:45)
Very exciting. And it's interesting, you mentioned the example of trashy hotels as someone who, you know, moved to the middle east to work for a sovereign wealth fund in 2008, I think pretty much at that point middle east Southern wealth funds own most of the, the kind of trophy hotels globally. So it was good to see that opening up a little bit as well. I would really like to touch on, you know, I've been reading a lot recently. I think Robin hood, you know, made an announcement about X percent of Robin hood customers are now female, um, with all the work that you're doing in sort of gender diversity and, you know, the writing that you're doing with Forbes, et cetera,

Rachel Pether: (20:26)
What have been some of the

Speaker 3: (20:29)
Findings on women's participation in the cryptocurrency markets themselves.

Nisa Amoils: (20:38)
I just saw that same statistic actually that, um, more women are trading in crypto than ever before, which brilliant. And it ju it's a factor of, um, partly, you know, Robin hood phenomenon is, is the lockdown and, and people are looking for alternative forms of, um, entertainment say, and they're, they have more time, maybe they're, they're reading more and they're self-learning and their experiments thing, which is great. And then, you know, we've seen, um, in the us, these stimulus checks and, and the correlated run-up in crypto prices. So, you know, that, um, people are putting part of their stimulus checks into crypto. And so that, um, I think the combination of the education and the time, um, has allowed more women to get into trading crypto and, and participate in that wealth creation.

Speaker 3: (21:46)
It's interesting. You're actually, I think about the third person this week, who's used Robinhood and entertainment and the same in the same sentence. Um, I'd just like to ask a few questions on the capital raising side. I know that you were,

Rachel Pether: (22:03)
Uh, you know, you used to work in

Speaker 3: (22:05)
A venture capital or used to work. Um, you are an entrepreneur previously, were you involved in the fundraising process and was it sort of the struggles from you personally that led to you really wanting to help democratize this industry? Or has it, will you more looking at it through the lens of an investment perspective?

Nisa Amoils: (22:28)
Yes, it is both. It is, um, for female fund owned funds. Um, there are, I think 90% of them are very small, um, or, you know, other than a handful. Um, and they go through this process of being part of emerging manager programs, whether that be a pensions or, um, sovereign wealth funds or endowments. And there are a lot of barriers to getting through their systems, right? You have to be a certain size fund to, um, participate with them. And it's hard to get from a to B. So I, and, and the number of women fund managers in general, I think is about maybe five or 7%. It's very small and that's the trickle down effect that, um, if there were more and running funds, they would invest more in female founders and those female founders would grow up and, and go public. And, and then the cycle they would have well to create and invest more so that kind of cycle would continue. And so it's very hard to, um, kind of wait for those systems to change because it could take decades or, or hundreds of years by some calculations. And so part of the process is really de-risking emerging managers for these institutions and by the same token, allowing more women and minorities, to be able to incur the expense and take the risk of entering into fund management.

Rachel Pether: (24:22)
Yeah. And I think you made an important point before, you know, it's not just some fluffy Duffy feel-good factor here. There's actually a bonafide underlying economic data to support this as well in terms of, you know, returns and things like that.

Nisa Amoils: (24:40)
Right. Exactly. And if people would pay attention to the data and believe the data, then why wouldn't they want to invest there? Right. Everybody is seeking returns first. So, so why wouldn't you,

Rachel Pether: (24:56)
And do you think that comes from sort of subconscious biases? What do you think it was, but I'll, uh, I will take it as a response, a very succinct one word response. And also just to, you know, I guess close I'd really be interested. You know, you've been, you've had such a variety of experience and, you know, you've worked on both sides of the fence and also been, uh, a lawyer when you're looking like within, within the fund I a hundred X, what are you most excited about seeing over the next 12 or 24 months? And what would success look like

Nisa Amoils: (25:44)
For you? Yeah, so we like to think that we're Prehype investors and my partner, Alex, who spent 15 years as a technologist at Goldman Sachs likes to always say that, um, you know, there are so many different, uh, companies that don't even need a block chain or AI that are, you know, tagging it onto, uh, them. We like to decipher the wheat from the chaff there. Um, we think, I mean, he, he seated a company called dapper labs three years ago, and now it's worth $2 billion, um, in the NFT space, which of course you must be reading about because it's, it's hard not to, um, now that's blown up. So we we'd like to get in before that happens. And we really think that the next wave of innovation is going to come, um, with this ESG lens and impact lens that we're, um, seeing these world use cases, um, happen.

Nisa Amoils: (26:46)
That's not to say we wouldn't, uh, again, invest in, in a blockchain based gaming company we have, and we would, um, be opportunistic as well, um, or in, you know, financial services or, or in, um, other kinds of disruption. But we really do believe that the world is trending towards, um, solving some of these issues that really have been brought to light this year. And that so many different governments are trying to use technology to do that now. And so that's really going to be where we see these, this next wave into your as time we hope to participate now, get in early, have great returns for investors. Um, and then, you know, continue to make positive impact.

Rachel Pether: (27:40)
Fabulous. Well, I really hope we can get you back on in a year and, you know, see where you are in that evolution. And I was just thinking, we actually met just over a year ago and at an alternative investments summit in the Cayman islands. So here's hoping we can actually meet again in person as well.

Nisa Amoils: (28:01)
I can't wait for that. Rachel. I'd love to.

Rachel Pether: (28:04)
Perfect. Thanks so much for your time today, Lisa, it's been a real pleasure. Thank you so much.

Sheila Warren: Why Bitcoin Is Here to Stay | SALT Talks #183

“We have a generation we’re raising of crypto-natives. Crypto is going to be commonplace… decentralized systems powered by blockchain are paving the way for that.”

Sheila Warren is the head of Data, Blockchain & Digital Assets at the World Economic Forum. She co-hosts a weekly podcast and television show called Money Reimagined on CoinDesk TV.

The journey to fully understand Bitcoin and its underlying technology came in stages. The interest in Bitcoin came first before realizing the far-reaching nature of the revolutionary blockchain technology and all of its potential applications. Often, too little thought is given to the value we ascribe to government-backed currency when criticizing Bitcoin. In reality Bitcoin and the blockchain offers a unique type of security and backing. “Bitcoin has value in part because people think it has value, but I also think the underlying principles behind it, the technology, governance have inherent value, even more so than the money printer.”

We are a raising a generation of digital natives who will more seamlessly adopt a crypto-centric approach to the world. This will only accelerate the normalization and adoption of blockchain-powered applications like non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Sheila Warren.jpeg

Sheila Warren

Head of Data, Blockchain & Digital Assets

World Economic Forum

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

John Darcie: (00:07)
Hello everyone. And welcome back to salt talks. My name is John Darcie. I'm the managing director of salt, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform at the intersection of finance technology and public policy. Salt talks are a digital interview series with leading investors, creators, and thinkers. And our goal on these salt talks is the same as our goal in our salt conferences, which is to provide a window into the mind of subject matter experts, as well as provide a platform for what we think are big ideas that are shaping the future. And again, as we've talked about many times here on salt talks, we don't think there's any bigger idea. That's disrupting finance and other industries as well. Then the digital asset decentralized finance and Bitcoin space. So we're very excited to welcome you to the latest episode of our digital asset series on salt talks with Sheila Warren.

John Darcie: (00:59)
Uh, Sheila is the head of data, blockchain and digital assets and a member of the executive committee at the world, economic forum, AKA Davos. Uh, she founded, uh, the blockchain and distributed ledger team at the forum center for the fourth industrial revolution C4 I R, where she serves as deputy head, uh, Sheila co-hosts a weekly podcast and TV show called money re-imagined, which airs on CoinDesk TV, CoinDesk being one of the leading, uh, media outlets that covers Bitcoin and digital assets. And she was also the architect of Presidio principles, the ground bay thing, a groundbreaking ethical framework for blockchain applications. Her pioneering policy work, uh, is helping shape the data and technology spaces to be more inclusive, ethical, and equitable. Sheila began her career as a wall street attorney at Cravath Swaine and Moore before turning to philanthropy and civic tech over a decade ago, she was most recently the VP of strategic alliances and general counsel at tech soup.

John Darcie: (02:00)
And prior to that role, she launched, uh, she designed and launched NGO source, which is a software as a service product focused on international grant making. She's an honors graduate of Harvard college and Harvard law school. If there was any doubt about whether she's a genius or not, she obviously well-educated as well, but Sheila, it's a great pleasure to have you on, uh, at SkyBridge, we are members of the world economic forum. I've been to Davo several times, obviously it's sort of the cream of the crop in terms of the event circuit and the thought leadership forums that exist out there. So congratulations on being an integral part of what is a fantastic event in Davos and generally a fantastic organization. But I want to talk about your Eureka moment as we often do at the beginning of these salt talks on digital assets and decentralized finance and on blockchain. So you come from a fairly normal wall street background, you were a lawyer by trade. When did you stumble upon digital assets and say, wow, this is something that's going to be really huge. And it's going to transform finance.

Sheila Warren: (03:02)
Yeah. You know, I'm one of those, uh, rare people who actually got into Bitcoin digital assets and blockchain as distinct things, which, which, you know, now I've corrected that initial, uh, uh, confusion let's call it. Uh, but I was into Bitcoin far earlier than I was into even understanding what the heck the technology was that underlay it. Right. So, um, funnily enough, my husband got me the Bitcoin. So he's like, there's this thing called Bitcoin, you know, people. And I was at that moment, I was still a lawyer practicing attorney. So my immediate frame was that's criminal money. Like what I talking about, we can't possibly, you know, and the story is kind of a funny one. So one day, uh, there were helicopters, we live in the mission in San Francisco and there were helicopters outside as sometimes happens. So we looked outside and we're like, what's going on? So we went to Twitter, as one does figure out like what's happening in my city, you know? And it turns out SWAT teams had invaded, were arresting, uh, silk road, like Ross basically. And they were like, that was all going down, pretty close to us. And my husband turned to me and he's like, Bitcoin just went on sale. So that's a story of how we got into grew into it.

Speaker 4: (04:08)
What was the price at that point? I don't want to out

John Darcie: (04:10)
You for being a Bitcoin billionaire right now, but what was the, well, if only

Sheila Warren: (04:13)
We had it flipped it earlier than we should have, we have been a, let me just say, we'd be sitting on quite the, quite the pocket, but of course, you know, we were smart enough to get back in at a different point in time. Um, you know, I think that for me, I thought of that initially very much as the alternative to gold, the digital gold narrative, you know, really struck me in the early days. And then frankly, I didn't pay that much attention to it for a little while. And then what happened was on the blockchain, on the technology side, uh, I was at the time general counsel of a group called tech state social enterprise who worked in 200 countries with non-profits. Some of whom were operating in very hostile environments. So we had this instance where we were working in Uganda. There was a law that was passed about LGBTQ, uh, being illegal, like actually, like you could get imprisoned if you were outed as being somebody who was LGBTQ plus.

Sheila Warren: (05:03)
And we had information organization servicing that community, like we had their addresses of the brick and mortar where these organizations were working. We were very concerned about how the state might get out and what might be the results of this from a very humanitarian perspective. And I had a dinner with some friends, the state department who were telling me about blockchain technology, like, oh, you should look at blockchain. And you know, we're all going to be paying, we're paying attention to this and it's a database and it's going to be a more secure database, blah blah. So that's when I actually read the white paper. So she didn't know how much white paper I went out and read it. And I was like, this is on real. So that's how I went down the rabbit hole. And then of course I connected the two biggest together and I was like, oh, that's Bitcoin. And the same thing, like, you know, so it, it took me a little while to get away from the digital goal narrative into understanding how powerful the underlying technology to consensus that governance really was. But once that connection was made, I mean, like everybody else in this space, you know, it became annoying and obsessed and wouldn't talk about it

Speaker 4: (05:58)
Exactly. Right, exactly.

Sheila Warren: (05:59)
Right. But the story then becomes, I think pretty common for all of us, right? Like we all have that. Nobody wanted to be a productive us anymore. And then of course, everybody wanted to talk to us. So that was kind of the path that we all went down.

John Darcie: (06:09)
Yeah, exactly. You know, we were a little later to our intellectual journey, uh, at SkyBridge and salt, frankly, in terms of, yeah. I I've been skeptical of Bitcoin for years as well because the same narratives that are perpetuated by, uh, people that are skeptical about it, they say, you know, it's used for criminal activity, illicit financing, uh, you know, it's, it's, uh, damaging to the environment, all the different things, the elements of FID, uh, fear, uncertainty, and doubt that you hear today. And then we just, we did more research on the space, got more comfortable with, uh, issues like security and custody, then a, and made a decision to enter the space last year in a timely, a timely manner. But we won't get too far into that, but you know, how going back into the macro themes around how blockchain technology will focus on Bitcoin, more in a second, but blockchain technology, I feel like there's this narrative in narrative that exists that, you know, I think there are some libertarian routes to Bitcoin and decentralized finance and all that type of stuff. But I think that blockchain and decentralized finance are actually tools of economic empowerment. So I think there's a little bit of a misunderstanding politically in the U S for example, you see some people on the left that attack Bitcoin. Cause I think it's, it's some libertarian nefarious scheme, but how can it really be a tool for economic empowerment?

Sheila Warren: (07:24)
I think it's important to say that it, it can be both, you know, and so the technology itself lends itself to a variety of different applications. Some of which can very much be used, uh, to exploit like any technology can be used to exploit, you know, but, uh, if the correct policies are in place, I think they can very much be tools for economic empowerment. And that's simply from the idea that there's no longer a centralized gatekeeper who is controlling the storage use of funds, uh, and they're released for that matter. And so I think that in my mind, you know, fundamentally what we're seeing in society and this goes well beyond the financial system, is people really wanting to feel like they are more active stakeholders in any system they're engaging in. You see this a lot with no centralized platform, social media and kind of push around, like, why don't I own my own data?

Sheila Warren: (08:10)
Why am I locked in here? And why is it hard to pull things from place to place? You know, the same thing is true in finance, right? So why do I need to be locked into a certain kind of currency and pay an at its orbited feed and transfer that into a different currency or whatever it might be, right? There's all these kinds of ways that people feel locked in. Um, now there's a certain level of sophistication to understand those nuances. And that's where I think you get some of the kind of criticism around this. Like how can it be economically empowering if people don't really understand it. But I think that it's not that important that you understand it. It's kind of the mechanisms that are being built around it that are so powerful. I think defy is one of these centralized finance and the entire movement there. Uh, I think that for example, NFTs, you know, non fungible tokens are another example of this, of how creators are being empowered to actually value their creations and get compensated in new and exciting ways. All of these things, I think fundamentally fundamentally are about, uh, economic empowerment and more of a stakeholder model. Just something the forum believes very strongly.

John Darcie: (09:06)
How much of Bitcoin's rise in the rise of NFTs and decentralized finance do you think is born out of the macro environment that we're in, where post 2008, uh, governments borrowed tons of money and kick the can down the road in order to stimulate the economy and trigger some level of growth. I don't think that we've grown as quickly as they would have hoped given the, the amount of debt that was printed during that time period. And then that was even accelerated and by, by several factors, uh, during the pandemic where the U S government was at the forefront of that in terms of, you know, we created 25% of existing money supply in 2020, which is a staggering amount, how much of that, uh, that ecosystem that decentralized finance and Bitcoin ecosystem is driven by all that debt and how much of Bitcoin is just a brilliant technology that was going to be inevitable, regardless of what governments did.

Sheila Warren: (10:00)
I, you know, I tend to think it's more the latter. And I think that we accelerated the adoption curve on it because of the former, right. So it's interesting to, no one knows, we don't know who's the Toshi Nakamoto is or who they were, you know, which I, my view is it's gotta be a collected, but regardless we don't know. And so it's impossible for us to assign motives to the creation of Bitcoin and people do it all the time. So why not me not to interrupt you, but I suspect at some point there will be some will or trust or document that is released upon posthumously. That's like, here's the proof that I am and what they donate.

John Darcie: (10:37)
So Toshi, whether it's Tishi or they, they donate their Bitcoin to some, some cause or something like that, or they, or they throw it out in the trash so that all the other Bitcoins are worth more, or what are they doing?

Sheila Warren: (10:47)
Well, maybe because I grew up watching a lot of television, but I feel like I like a dramatic reveal. So I feel like we're, we're on a path to some sort of very dramatic reveal that, you know, that is planned by this or those individuals. Um, and, um, I'm holding out for that, but, you know, we don't know, we just don't know. And so there's a mythology around that. I actually, by the way, don't think that the mythology around it is, uh, should be divorced from the attractiveness it had in the, especially the early days, right? The mystique around this was part of what do people to it. And the fact that there wasn't there literally is nobody had ever controlled this because the author of the paper that spawn this and the first Genesis blot, we don't know who that person is. So there is no way to influence that person because no one can do that because they don't know who it is.

Sheila Warren: (11:28)
So actually it was a very powerful and very wise move, whether deliberate or otherwise, I assume deliberate to ensure that the true lack of centrality was kept forever in perpetuity. So is, have you seen what happens? But you know, the, the problem addressed in the paper fundamentally is one of double set, right? It isn't necessarily like how to tumble economic systems or whatever. I mean, people imply all kinds of things and read and do it, whatever they want, and I've done the same guilty of the same. Um, but I do think there, there was a recognition that this was a cool cryptographic problem. We wanted to kind of solve it. We wanted to understand what it could do. I find it highly unlikely that the Scotia collective could foresaw all the phases of this would spawn. I just, I find it hard to assign that level of foresight and creative thinking to any individual group of individuals who knows, you know, I mean, maybe we're

Speaker 4: (12:21)
All in the simulation and this is all just been broken. Yeah. I mean, the point about

John Darcie: (12:25)
Satoshi, if, if that person is still alive and still holds all those Bitcoins that talk about being, having diamond hands and being a hotline, that person has just continued to hold those Bitcoins from 1 cent all the way to $58,000 per Bitcoin, they're now, you know, multi multi-billionaire. That is somebody who has incredible belief in what they created and incredible foresight. Um, but that's a whole, yeah.

Sheila Warren: (12:50)
Keep the safe. Right. You know, I mean, I, it would not surprise me if that were the case. I also think that we know for a fact there are untold Bitcoin billionaires who will never realize those gains because they lost, I lost there.

Speaker 4: (13:03)
That's awesome. A big ones. We talked about 21 million. Yeah. You talked about 21 million

John Darcie: (13:08)
Outstanding. It's actually significantly less than that because of the amount of loss. So at least at least you or I aren't one of those people we might've missed out on, on part of the that's true. That's true that

Sheila Warren: (13:19)
You do not have any mosquitoes, but you know, sad to not being a person who had the foresight to them, you know, not stored them in a device that you'd been erased or something else

John Darcie: (13:28)
Actually, you know, VJ boy potty is somebody that we had on salt talks. And if you're in the Bitcoin ecosystem, you know who that is, he wrote a great paper called the bullish case for Bitcoin. I think it does as well as anything that I've read, make the intellectual case for why Bitcoin is sound money and why it is better at being gold than gold in your view, intellectually, how do you look at Bitcoin and people who say, well, it's not backed by anything. It doesn't have any real value it's just made up out of thin air intellectually. Why does Bitcoin make sound money? And why is it inherently worth something?

Sheila Warren: (14:01)
Yeah. You know, the, the reason we started the money reimagined podcast at which I coast Michael Casey on CoinDesk is exactly the point out this, the comedy of that statement, right? I mean like what actually is money? What backs money, you know, and now you could argue the full faith and credit of the U S government went back to the us dollar and that's not nothing to sneeze at, but you know, it's certainly not the paper it's printed on, you know, there's, there's that we have that whole idea. I'm like, it's not worth the paper it's printed on. Well, ha right. So, so money inherently is, is, is funny that way. Um, we point out how memes over time, you know, have generated value in and of themselves. And so, you know, Bitcoin has value. Yes, that's true in part because people think it has value, but I also think the underlying principles behind it, the technology that governance have inherent value beyond even more so than I would say the money printer, you know what I mean?

Sheila Warren: (14:50)
So, and it's, and that is less likely actually it's less in a way it's less plausible that that will, that could ultimately dramatically fail. Yeah. So right now we're relying on a lot of systems that are bolstering the value of certain kinds of currencies or relying on certain political leadership and decisions that are bolstering, you know, the value of certain kinds of currency. And I mean, Munis around the world, I'm not speaking about the, the dollar specifically, um, that is not true in Bitcoin. Bitcoin has an inherent value because of what it enables and what you can do with it. And the new system that it can eat is starting to bring into reality. And, and because of, I think, uh, the other thing that, that spawned, so, you know, there's a tendency to really focus solely on Bitcoin. And I understand why we do that, but I actually look at crypto as a space more, more generically personally, because I think that, you know, this is a rising tide and the value of it is going to be determined by the adoption that it gets by the ways it's being used by the creativity and the application layer, all of that is going to prove ultimately to be almost embedded into the value of the underlying coin.

John Darcie: (15:57)
So I want to build on what you just said about, you know, whether or not Bitcoin remains the overwhelming dominant player in the cryptocurrency space. So right now it is, and in these types of businesses, whether you look at Google or apple or Amazon, it's often a not winner take all, but win or dominate the ecosystem. Do you think Bitcoin is now so far out of the barn that it's going to continue to dominate market share in the cryptocurrency market, or you think there's a threat of a better technology and a better protocol coming through that could disrupt it and take a larger percentage of the market share than perhaps the consensus view.

Sheila Warren: (16:35)
So, you know, this just, isn't how I look at the space and I understand why, you know, people who are focusing on the price of death, look at the space in this way. But I actually don't think that there's a cage match ruin here between let's just say Bitcoin and Ethereum, right. As the two dominant players in the market, they're just, they're different things. You know, they were, they were built for different purposes. Uh, the application layer and Ethereum is, is becoming even more and more robust over time. You're seeing competitors, you know, to that. So I think for every sort of use case, yeah, there's probably going to be one thing that becomes, you know, dominant in a way with other players that are maybe, maybe they rise and fall, you know, whatever. Right. Um, but I think that, that you have to kind of look at it in that fashion.

Sheila Warren: (17:16)
So are you talking about it as a, maybe an exchange, the store value, or are you talking about an application level on top of it, that's enabling other kinds of transactions or trades. Like, I think all these things matter, and I'm hard pressed to see how one thing is suddenly gonna, I dunno, dominate everything else when we cannot even imagine at the moment, you know, what, what people are going to do with this stuff. Like we're still so early, you know what I mean? Like of tease, I mean, we have crypto kitties back in 2017, but like, I don't think any of us knew that it was going to blow up to be what it is today. You know,

John Darcie: (17:48)
Didn't think people was going to sell a piece of NFT, digital art for $69 million.

Sheila Warren: (17:54)
Right. Like we cannot even imagine what's going to happen here. So, you know, we're, we're all a role doing the best we can with information we have at the time. And in my mind, I feel like, yeah, you know, Bitcoin's dominant cause in part, because it was first in part because it's robust in part because there is color, we don't even know who built the thing. You know, like all these things I think, um, perpetuate its value. I don't see that really changing in a, in a negative way, but I do see other things coming up that are going to be probably just as valuable, you know, and they're, and they're not really competitive. So that's, that's how I see the space developing over time.

John Darcie: (18:28)
I agree with you. Uh, people like to look at the market cap of gold, you know, it's around 10 trillion, uh, but gold in an environment where people would typically think gold would outperform, uh, you know, there's this binge of debt that the U S government and global governments have been on. That's typically a very bullish environment for gold. Gold is actually performed pretty mediocre. And as, as Bitcoin has sort of taken that mantle, uh, as the alternative store value, let's talk about NFTs for a second. I think it's fascinating. Like my, my older brother, for example, he had all these old sports cards that were sitting at our parents' house that we didn't think two seconds about. They were in a plastic case. We all moved on. He's a doctor. He lives in Wisconsin. I live in New York. My parents live in North Carolina, suddenly this massive collectibles craze happens and we start fishing out these old sports cards.

John Darcie: (19:16)
And then I introduced him to NBA top shots, which is, uh, an T platform has gotten a lot of attention, but, and he started dabbling in that. And the values of those digital highlights started going crazy. And I just sort of had this Eureka moment where I'm like, wow, this is in a, in a world that's completely digital where most millennials and gen Z and gen X and whatever, all these generations are called live largely online. Why wouldn't a digital collectible have the same value as a physical collectible, if there is verifiable scarcity. But why in your view is this space exploding so much? Why is somebody willing to pay $69 million for a piece of digital art? And do you think this is just the beginning? Or do you think this is a speculative mania that's happening sort of at the early stages of NFTs driven, partly by easy money from the fed.

Sheila Warren: (20:03)
Oh, there's a lot there to unpack

Speaker 4: (20:04)
[inaudible].

John Darcie: (20:07)
But talk to me about NFTs, what they are, why they're significant and where you see the future.

Sheila Warren: (20:13)
Let me start with something that, that you, that you noted right. About the transition from physical object to a digital object. And so we talk a lot about digital nativity, right? So the generation that is, you know, it was called them gen Z. I don't even know what they're called anymore, but this generation of Pedalecs

John Darcie: (20:28)
Generation, I think I have some kids that are in the alpha generation. What might

Sheila Warren: (20:33)
Get there, my material, I have no idea what generation she's going to be called. Um, but they're digital natives, right? I mean, like just even seeing my seven year old and how she interacts with devices and just a natural way that that flow happens. And you have digital twenties, many very, very common, you know, even for generation of, of young adults right now, uh, which differs from, you know, the way that my parents' generation, right. Like, thinks about this stuff. Um, we have a generation that we are raising literally, in my case of crypto natives, like people who are going to be crypto is going to be so commonplace to them. And I can see my daughter saying to me, I can probably see her saying this in like six years when she's 13, you know, how could you possibly have given your data to a social media platform?

Sheila Warren: (21:11)
Like what the hell were you thinking, giving her anything about you as centralized player that you didn't control it? Like, what were you, I think that's going to be a math and motor people and decentralized systems that are backed by blockchain are paving the way for that, right? Like, well, you can have more ownership. NFT is, are an example of how a creator can create something and then own a stream of income that's coded basically into, you know, that, that, um, creation over time and not have to necessarily fight for that through an agency or a gallery or whatever it is right now. Uh, so I think there's going to be a natural way that people, the things that, that we find is still a little bit, maybe new or, you know, different, they're going to just be so natural to this generation. And so, so, uh, I think that we're, we're seeing some of that right now.

Sheila Warren: (21:54)
We're seeing a generation that, you know, they were never really going to buy a painting and put it on their wall because that's not how they interact with the world, right? The interact with the world, through their social media, through their, whatever it might be. And so having that image and having it be their background or their avatar or whatever it is, is much more powerful for them. And this is a way that reflects their mode of being just simply being in the world, which is, which is very digital and online. So I think we're just seeing the generational almost transition. This is a very logical extension of the way people think about these kinds of these kinds of things. That's kind of ownership right now. Next question I think is, do I think that $600 million, you know, that is really not for me to stay, right? Like, so we have to match that

John Darcie: (22:36)
Bid. You are a participant participate.

Sheila Warren: (22:40)
Yeah, no. If I had that, I would be say, San Francisco, how do we, you know, how do we get some, uh, how do we get something going here? There'll be other things I do with that money personally. Now that being said, you know, obviously that was worth that to someone, you know? And, and, and again, it's not for me to say, so I think that, yeah. You know, do I think that that is overvalued again? Totally not for me to say, because the market value of that at that price. Now, what I will say is that I think that there's a little bit of, you know, this is a fad right now, for sure. I don't want to call it hype. I don't like that term. I think it's a fad. People are really like, I want to miss something because it's cool. And a lot of what they're mentioning is kind of like, um, this, uh, there's this SNL skit that I talk about from a while ago, I was very little when this came out.

Sheila Warren: (23:25)
So I'm sure no one listening probably remembers that, but, um, the actor is playing Picasso. Okay. And so he's like painting in his studio and doing whatever and everyone's coming and biting, but, and paying all this money. And he goes to a restaurant and he's at the cafe and he doesn't have his wallet. And so the waiter's like, oh, sorry, you got to pay your bill. Right. And he's like, what? I'm Picasso. I don't know if we still got to pay man. And so he blows his nose into a napkin signs it, because, so, and he's like, [inaudible], here's what you got. Okay. So some of what we're seeing is a little more like that, you know, no matter, you know what I mean, than it is like the actual art, right. Um, and that's to be expected because people are playing around with this, you know? And so over time, I think you'll see that the true talent does emerge. And that's where the value is really captured. And a lot of NFCS are kind like, you know, they're there, but you know, it's not necessarily, uh, attracting this sort of this sort of price and the transaction level. Right.

John Darcie: (24:18)
I want to go back to Bitcoin for a second Bitcoin and decentralized finance and the cryptocurrency space at large, you work at the world economic forum, which there's a lot of big institutions that, that are members of the world, economic forum and active participants in all of your events and the programs you put together. What's, what's the, uh, the view from that institutional lens right now of Bitcoin and of this movement, you know, obviously, uh, Bitcoin has sort of libertarian grassroots type of origins, but you're seeing institutions, whether it be SkyBridge capital, where I am gainfully employed or insurance companies like mass mutual, New York life recently put someone on the board of a leading, uh, crypto Bitcoin focused investment firm. What's the lens. And the feedback that you're getting from members of your community about is this something that we need to be a part of, or are they still cast a skeptical eye at the whole thing?

Sheila Warren: (25:12)
You know, part of the beauty of my job is that we, we don't have skin in the game, right. So I'm not, uh, th the forum's not invested, you know,

John Darcie: (25:19)
You're not saying, Hey, invest in my world economic forum, a Bitcoin fund here. Yeah. Right.

Sheila Warren: (25:23)
Like we don't, yeah. We haven't issued a token. You know, we, uh, we, we aren't building, you know, we don't roll out any protocol or applications and things like that. Right. We're, we're really influencing the policy and the governance kind of landscape here. And so, you know, over time, you know, we there's always been interest in these topics. First mentioned on the program, the public program was actually 2015. We had a session that used the main Bitcoin and a title, but that of course means that prior to that, you know, there was a lot of conversation happening and closed door sessions, and that didn't make it to the public stage. So I would say, you know, almost from 2011 or so, this was a conversation happening on some of our major constituents. And part of what I see as my responsibility in this role is to really normalize those conversations, right. To say, like, you should be paying attention to this. It's fine to be open about your, the fact you're paying attention to it. It's fine to be open about the fact that you own it. You know, this is not going to be seen as like something where you're engaging in like criminal activity or fraud or laundering or whatever, right. You can be

John Darcie: (26:18)
To get fired from your job because you're delving into this sketchy asset class.

Sheila Warren: (26:22)
Exactly. And over time, I think we have been able to be a very strong influencer in, in the openness around the conversation, like people being willing to share their holdings. And then of course that leads to people be more willing to get into the market, you know, and explore the potential and figure out like what, what this really is. So a lot of the companies that, you know, we, that we've seen making some of these big moves been part of these conversations in various ways, or kind of heard the things that we've been talking about. Um, and I think, I think that, uh, that's going to continue, you know, I mean, we're, we're now getting before it used to be that we had to kind of really push to have these conversations, you know, be public and try to get speakers on our stage to be willing to talk about them now. I mean, in our lease the Davos agenda, you know, let me just put it this way. It was not hard to find very senior people who were willing to talk publicly about this topic during gender. Right. So, and that's even an only, I've only been here three and a half years, and the transition is extraordinarily dramatic in terms of that.

John Darcie: (27:18)
Yeah. I think the price appreciation will help people stick their neck out and say, yeah, actually we've been investing in this for awhile, you know, bang on their chest a little bit, but I'm talking about regulation, uh, around Bitcoin and around crypto. I think obviously the generation of regulators around the world as an older generation, they maybe don't understand certain elements of Bitcoin, but I think there's also plenty of reasons why, uh, they're just doing their job by, by continuing to be cautious. But, you know, there's this notion that that Bitcoin is used only for nefarious purposes for illicit financing. Janet Yellen has offered similar types of comments, uh, as she's assumed the role of treasury secretary, but there's also the IRS recently launched a program called operation hidden treasure, where they're training their agents to learn how to spot fraud, uh, and tax evasion on blockchains. Do you think we are inevitably going to get sound regulation of Bitcoin and of decentralized finance? Or do you think that's an impossible nut to crack what's your overall outlook on the regulatory environment globally for digital assets?

Sheila Warren: (28:26)
Well, I certainly think it's an area that is, uh, being heavily scrutinized or regulators all over the world. You know, so this is certainly not unique to United States. I think people are really struggling with how do we effectively regulate this in a way that it's going to provide the protections that we think are important for our citizens, but are also going to not, uh, you know, disincentivize innovation, right? If we want creativity. And so we've seen from, from the early days, you know, thinking like regulatory sandboxes or things like this, where you could have a more collaborative process in some jurisdictions, more than others to kind of figure out like what's the right thing. Now there's a couple of things I think are really important. And I think that along the lines that we've talked about with empowerment of actors in this space, you know, I think we have this shift in, when you think about crypto, it's a bit of a shift from consumer, you know, to user right.

Sheila Warren: (29:09)
In a way. And so I I've been saying, I think that our notions of consumer protection are kind of outdated, you know, like who's the consumer who we protected them from, you know, if there's no centralized in and to see like, who are they? Who is that? You know, and that's different from kind of like blatant fraud, like hacks and things like this that we all agree are just like, should be prosecuted. Non-starters are just like bad actors. Right. But in this case, it's, it's not, you can't quite port those concepts over, they don't work. They don't it's square peg and round hole with it. Now I think that impulses are reasonable fair. And part of, I would argue the role of a regulator, right. To make sure no one's getting fleeced or scammed or whatever it is. Um, but how do you do that? Isn't, it's very complicated question.

John Darcie: (29:50)
And part of that role is making sure that you have a regulatory framework in place. You know, I think you're seeing that play out in the U S there's only a certain number of vehicles that allow you to get exposure to Bitcoin. For example, one being the grayscale Bitcoin trust, which is now 40 plus billion in assets, some people invest in micro strategy, Michael sailors company, because they have three plus billion dollars worth of Bitcoin on their balance sheet. So you're, you're forcing people to invest in Bitcoin through channels that might not always be completely healthy. And, and, uh, and, uh, you could see a Bitcoin ETF in 2021 because you have the new sec chairman taught a blockchain course at MIT, or you have that similar mind. Do you think there's going to be more regulation and friendly regulation that at least allows the little guy to have a little bit more protection?

Sheila Warren: (30:42)
I think that's a direction of travel. You know, what the timeframe is for that? I have no idea. I think there are a lot of priorities that pandemic has raised. And so is this going to be kind of top of the agenda? You know, I don't know. Right. But I think that's the direction of travel. I think that it is not a coincidence, you know, that the Gary Gensler is in the position. Right. I think that it's interesting to see the contrast there. I think with Janet Yellen and its user are, uh, they're compatible in some ways, and in some ways they're, they're not, you know, so I think it's gonna be really, really healthy in some ways to have that sort of tension reflected, you know, across these agencies. Um, one thing I think is really important of course, is that, you know, well, this is true of many asset classes, but I think it's really true.

Sheila Warren: (31:20)
Crypto is it doesn't fall within what agency's purview. You know, you really have to think across a variety of agencies. And part of the early days of confusion was like, is it a commodity? Is it a security like, well, who was regulating it? You know? And I think with, with Bitcoin simply, it's kind of like, well, you know, it sort of depends on what facet you're looking at of the thing, you know, like, is it, is it the elephant? Is it the tail? Is this the truck? You know, so there's, there's kind of different ways of looking at this. And I think that coordination across the agencies is really critical. My hope is that with this new administration, they're really trying to put forth a much more collaborative approach. I think to these kinds of topics, you're going to see a holistic regulations. That's, that's what I want to see. And if that takes time. So I think rather than having, you know, the sec, for example, or, you know, whatever it was CFTC or whatever, just put something out there. I want that. I would prefer that, that be again, holistic thought about in context of other things that might come out of other agencies that are going to create a broader picture of, you know, exactly how to navigate this asset class.

John Darcie: (32:17)
In some ways it feels like all these different agencies they're trying to avoid the, having the responsibility of actually regulating, like, don't talk to us, talk to the CFTC, don't talk to me, talk to the STC. But, uh, eventually one of these I'll jump in the pool together, but I want to talk about the geopolitics of Bitcoin, where we're talking about regulation. So China, for example, they run 60 odd percent of global mining operations for Bitcoin, but buying and selling a Bitcoin in China has been banned because some people are using it to evade capital controls. For example, places like Iran, Venezuela has started to engage in, in mining operations as well, because they see potentially, uh, whether it be central bank, digital currencies, or Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies as a way to evade, uh, the swift system through which the United States operates a lot of their, uh, you know, financial, punitive programs to try to punish nations that they deem as being bad actors.

John Darcie: (33:21)
So do you think the United States, uh, first of all, why do you think those countries are doing it? Am I accurate and thinking that, okay, they see this as a new future that they can, uh, they can get more fairness on the global stage in terms of their economies. And do you think the us will eventually have to come to the realization that, okay, this is something that's inevitable with or without us, and we need to invest in and become a leader in Bitcoin specifically, and also in the idea of digital assets, central bank, digital currencies, and all those railings

Sheila Warren: (33:52)
On the last point first, you know, um, do I see the U S embracing Bitcoin in the ways you're describing? I'm not so sure about that, but digital assets

John Darcie: (34:01)
Are going to be out there buying Bitcoin. Yeah. I don't know that

Speaker 4: (34:04)
We'd ever know we put it that way or that it would be,

Sheila Warren: (34:09)
Yeah. You who knows, you know, what it was, would it surprise you? You know, so who knows? Um, I certainly don't and I think that, but on the digital assets a hundred percent, I mean, I think you're already seeing these statements that, you know, Jay Powell coming out and saying that digital dollar and looking at that as a priority, you know, that's a pretty strong statement for quite different from things we've heard before. That's of course, a reflection of, of five years of intense research that's been doing into the topic, you know, some of which we help facilitate some connections and things like that. So I think that, um, yeah, I think there's any question that things like CBDC are already, they're already exploring, you know, what is the use case? What makes sense, what problem solving with this? Why does it matter, you know, uh, have you ever robustly and digital assets similarly?

Sheila Warren: (34:48)
So I think those are different questions and I think we've already seen evidence that the latter is happening. Um, and then in terms of why countries are doing what they're doing, you know, it's interesting because I think there's some countries that have really embraced dollarization, you know, they're very, it's very important to them pay to form whether it's formally or informally, they've kind of embraced it and others that have not done that. And, you know, uh, there are others who are, you know, who could certainly speak to, you know, one of the patterns that we see there, you know, around that. So those patterns of you're kind of obvious, like there's just sort of political resistance on the part of leadership that can change over time as leadership changes, you know, this kind of thing. Um, but I think there is a sense that perhaps you can have a strong economy without necessarily pegging to any other currency, whether that's the Yuan, the dollar, you know, whatever it is.

Sheila Warren: (35:35)
And is that more possible if you, as a country kind of embrace these opportunities, it seems to me like a reasonable experiment, you know, so I think that's probably part of what you're seeing. I don't know that explicitly about sanctions avoidance and swift avoidance and those things. I mean, it may well be, uh, it would surprise me a bit if it were that, you know, targeted apart from maybe like a couple of jurisdictions here and there, which, you know, I think anything they can do to get away from the U S is not surprising. Um, but I also think we can't underestimate, you know, the sanctions effect has had on countries and their inability to engage in digital economy is, is quite profound. So if there are ways of circumventing that system, you know, it, it seems logical to me that they would be exploring that, although I have no evidence that that's the case,

John Darcie: (36:22)
Right? Another topic that you've written about that I think is fascinating. We had Marty Chavez on salt talks a few months ago, he's the former CTO of Goldman Sachs. And he was talking about how he's fascinated by the space and the profound impact potentially of decentralized digital identities, both financial identities and health identities and otherwise. So for example, he talked about, let's say we pass a $2 trillion stimulus package. We have a digital dollar. Every us citizen, uh, has a digital wallet through which we can instantaneously ascertain whether they're eligible to receive stimulus checks and we can zap that money into their bank account instantaneously, uh, so they can get it into the economy more quickly. And that has tremendous benefits. If we can do that all quickly, verifiably, there's also the health piece of it. So for example, we host a big conference, the world economic forum, hosted a big conference.

John Darcie: (37:18)
If we could verify that every individual who's attending our conference has been vaccinated or has antibodies for COVID, uh, we're test negative in the days leading up to the events that that has a lot of benefits as well. But there's also concerns about big brother about, you know, is this something where the government's going to have every piece of information about us and be able to track us and follow our digital lives as well? What promise to see decentralized digital identity have, and let's imagine a world where that's fully, uh, that's fully mature the idea of a digital identity. What does that look like? And are we able to avoid those concerns about big brother?

Sheila Warren: (37:57)
So, yeah, I, you know, this is the most foundational element of the entire thing, right? So when we really solve the questions and the, the, I don't want to call them problems because they're just things that have to be solved when we really crack this nut around digital identity. Uh, we're going to see massive escalation, I think, in, in the use and adoption of everything from visual currency, all these different kinds of applications, we're just going to blow up. And I use any question about that when it becomes super, super easy and obvious to hold digital, it's already very easy, by the way, to hold a digital wallet. That's not like a hard thing to do. People just don't realize how easy that is. Right, right. Um, and so once people kind of really understand that it's very normalized. You're going to see this becoming a very obvious way of decreasing the lag in stem. And you could almost have, you could imagine a super targeted stimulus, right? Like you could imagine, like you could do that because you can actually program into the code base, these kinds of people in this geography, some employment

John Darcie: (38:52)
Based on income, based on geography, you can do it in terms of it that really blew my mind when, when Marty started talking about all of that stuff. Cause that I hadn't really fully, uh, thought about what it meant.

Sheila Warren: (39:02)
Well, not just that, I mean, we know that the stimulus payments, you know, despite great effort on the part of the government, there was a lot of fraud in that system. You know, I mean, the checks were stolen, they gotta check cashing places and Mike's gone. It's lost one of the wrong people, you know? Yeah. A lot of people that are eligible

John Darcie: (39:16)
That didn't get it because they don't, they're not set up in the traditional

Sheila Warren: (39:19)
Banking that's right. Even worse, you know? And so, and so we have to recognize there's a last mile problem where an awful lot of people who really needed that money to just weren't able to claim it and file claims for it, like go through that incredibly burdensome process. So, so a lot of this I think is extraordinarily powerful. Now, a couple of comments on that since they went there, you know, I think it's really important that we recognize that last mile question, right? Like what we're, what digital wallets can do. Well, there's certain kind of profile of person that can easily hold digital wallets to clarify my earlier remark, you know, it's for you. And I, it's very easy to hold a digital wallet for a digital natives. It's very easy to do that for a lot of people. It's not easy to do that, you know, cause they have like, they like access to the right technology.

Sheila Warren: (39:59)
You don't have, the hardware is not available. You know, connectivity is not available. They can't rely on having reliable internet to access those funds as needed, whatever it might be there, you know, or the phone system, whatever it might be. There are reasons why we have to be very conscious of that and make sure that whatever we're building typically, if it's the government who's pushing us forward is going to be true inclusive. And so I think, I actually think to the credit of the U S government that has been a reason that the us government has kind of held off a little bit on these massive wide scale experiments because they really want to focus on the problems of poverty in our country, which are systemic and have a lot of other reasons beyond, you know, the ability to have a bank account. There's a lot of other reasons why that's the case.

Sheila Warren: (40:35)
So, um, so I just want to land that point and make that very clear. Now, moving away from that and saying to the point about these targeted singlets and opportunities like this, you know, I think that, um, it is tremendously powerful. I do think we're going to see a lot more normalization best. I do think we're going to see programmability. And I do think that that does lead to increased access or, or, um, on the part of, of any sort of big brother entity that could be a company. It could be a government, you know, I don't want to just use that term generically. Uh, we're seeing concern about this from China's DSF experiment. You know, so now in China, there's kind of a cultural norm around, you know, a certain level of surveillance. It's a quite different cultural expectation in here in United States, right? So rolling out an experiment, the jewel you want is not going to be as much of a dramatic thing there as it is here. You're already seeing a lot of privacy advocates to be very concerned about the implications here. And I think that that is well-placed concern,

John Darcie: (41:27)
Right? Let's talk about energy usage. So I think that's an increasingly common that Bitcoin detractors and detractors of the ecosystem are citing as a reason why there shouldn't be larger scale adoption of Bitcoin. Most specifically, I think because of the, uh, the volume of transactions and the amount of energy that uses. Do you have concerns around energy use, uh, related to Bitcoin? Janet Yellen has talked about that, uh, as along with others, but how do you view the energy consumption piece of Bitcoin?

Sheila Warren: (42:00)
So I always like to ask, you know, compared to what, like, what are we comparing the Coys energy usage to, you know, are we comparing it to software? Okay. Then, I mean maybe a buy it, are we comparing it to printing, storing, transferring, you know, money like paper and digital and sorry, paper, money and coins that I'm like, not so sure that, you know, we're doing so badly. Um, I, you know, what I'll say more generically is I find it really interesting as a society. This is true. I think across our entire society and our, the way we think about climate, we have, we, you know, the people I suppose, have decided that certain kinds of energy usage are bad and certain kinds of energy usage are good, right? Like there are some that we have no problem with. And some that were like, well, that's just terrible.

Sheila Warren: (42:43)
How dare you? And we really apply a moral judgment to these things. And I think that the moral judgment varies culture, the culture. So I think it's important to recognize that. And I think it varies, you know, person to person, right? We have different views about who should be able to use a lot of energy and who should not be able to use what energy, you know. So, um, I, I just, I always find this. There's a really interesting tell on the person who is making the claim, you know, and work what their perspective is, uh, versus others. Now, that being said, I think it's important to note that there are a couple of things that I find don't get enough airtime and be Bitcoin since we Bitcoin energy conversation. Right? So, cause I'm leaving aside the other kinds of cryptocurrencies and proof of stake and all that kind of thing.

Sheila Warren: (43:22)
But focusing on Bitcoin, number one, there's a lot of green energy being used to mine, Bitcoin like tremendous amounts of green energy are being used. And in fact, there's been a conscious effort on the part of many miners to transition away from kind of oil, gas, traditional energy, to more green energy. And I think that some of the experiments that have been done there are quite powerful for actually generating energy that can actually, uh, it kicks off access that can be used to power, you know, um, homes and other kinds of kinds of things. That's interesting. Uh, and that's getting, I think more and more, it's increasingly becoming a priority in the community and we're seeing more and more of that. Number two is a really interesting point made by Russ Stephens, which is that, uh, Bitcoin mine, mining facilities it's called them can really be set up and totally uninhabitable parts of the world.

Sheila Warren: (44:06)
So you can actually be solar for example, right? You could actually be mining Bitcoin, generating solar energy, gritting that using it to power parts of the world because you need so little, you know, maintenance of these minds. It's not the kind of thing where you have to kind of have somebody living there and have a whole infrastructure around that right. In these areas. So there's a possibility that if we really pay attention to that, and I think this remains speculative, but it's that we could actually be generating energy from sources and parts of the world that we couldn't before. And that could maybe be helpful in resolving the, the climate crisis that we're in. So, so it's a much more complicated conversation, I think, than the sort of black and white Bitcoin energy in a bad, you know, kind of thing that we often see.

John Darcie: (44:51)
Yeah. I try not to editorialize myself as the interviewer, but yeah, we've got a lot of interesting conversations around the, the energy usage piece. And I definitely believe that it actually is a great opportunity for us to equalize access to energy. We also had assault talk with Richard by Wirth, who is the CEO of digital X, which is a digital asset exchange based in Singapore. And he talked about it in a lot of countries. There are certain, uh, energy projects, whether it be hydro electric, solar wind that are being shuttered because they say, oh, we don't have the level of demand. It's hard to get it to the grid. It's more expensive to get the energy to the grid relative to producing energy. So we're going to shut down these existing projects and actually a Bitcoin mining is popping up in a lot of those places and being able to tap into what was dormant or stranded energy.

John Darcie: (45:38)
Uh, so it's a fascinating conversation. I think, you know, as ESG becomes a more and more, uh, relevant topic, which I think it will continue to be. I think that conversation around energy usage is going to be increasingly relevant. So it it's going to be important for the Bitcoin community, I think, uh, to continue to tackle those questions and continue to make sure that investment in Bitcoin mining is done through renewable sources of energy. But the last question I have for you, and I always have to ask this, so we balanced the conversation a little bit cause you and I are obviously have been orange pill, but what are the greatest risks in your, in your mind? If we sit down in 10 years, uh, at the world economic forum and we're having a glass of wine at SkyBridge is famous, a wine party that we do at the piano bar there, uh, in Davos. And we say, man, that, that Bitcoin thing that, that really failed spectacularly or, or this entire crypto experiment falls apart, what would be the reasons for that? And what are the biggest risks and threats you think, uh, to this entire movement?

Sheila Warren: (46:33)
Well, I, I personally I'll answer it two ways. I'll PR I personally think the biggest risks and threats to the world around this are some of the things I highlighted earlier, which are going to massively massively increase the digital divide. There's going to be a crypto divide that sits on top of digital divide. And that means that people that already had access to certain kinds of wealth generation or whatever now have this new avenue and there's zero access to an increasingly large number of people who, for a variety of reasons are not able to access this. And so that is something I'm very concerned about, um, it's one of the reasons I pushed so hard on more inclusive teams building in the space. You know, I focus a lot of my, try to amplify a lot of voices that are focusing on this question of inclusion.

Sheila Warren: (47:15)
So for me personally, I think for the forum, that is a big concern that we raise a lot with, uh, those ecosystems who are, you know, who are in a position to really do something about it. So, uh, so that's how I'll, I'll add to that. Now, on the other hand, I do, what do I think would kind of kill and like it cause everyone to be like, oh God, that calling it a nightmare, you know? Um, honestly I think Bitcoin is, so I think it's something that's a PR situation truly. Like I think there's going to be something that could happen, whether it's some big reveal around, you know, the biggest owner Satoshi is a

John Darcie: (47:45)
No, she's actually Bernie Madoff's, uh, nephew and,

Speaker 4: (47:49)
And, uh, got to be

John Darcie: (47:51)
A polymath, but, but he invented it and then, and runs away with it.

Sheila Warren: (47:54)
There you go. Something like that. Right. I actually think the sotoshi reveal that we were talking about joking about earlier that there

Speaker 4: (48:01)
Are some people that nobody would be happy to know

Sheila Warren: (48:04)
Where the, the, you know, the, the brain behind this, right. Even if you could kind of say, well, oh, you know, it was a crazy person did this, but it's really actually turned out to be awesome. So I think that's, that's something, I think it's something like that that's going to cause because it's just such a fickle, it's a fickle thing, right? People are, people are into it, but then the minute there's a criminal kind of a thing that happens in France. Oh God, I don't want you to, so there's a big element. I think of alignment here where people are that, that is earns the reputational risks still that people perceive, which I, again, I try to push back against, I don't think it's really baseline real, but it is there. And that's what I think. Well, things

John Darcie: (48:39)
Like, like quantum computing and 51% nation state attacks, do you think, uh,

Speaker 4: (48:45)
Those would get to the point typically I

Sheila Warren: (48:47)
Just find the 51% attack to be, I mean, it's certainly theoretically possible. I just don't, I, again, we talked about how much of that's lost, right? Like who are you? Who are the 51%? You know, a lot of those people are who they are, you know, so who are you influencing? I don't really know how that, how that would work if Bitcoin specifically on other forms of crypto more possible. So fair enough. You asked about the quintile answered that and then quantum, you know, I think that everyone's so aware of it. And so I guess I have faith in the really brilliant minds or who are working in this space in a technology layer and that they're, they're staying where they need to be with that. You know? So it's something in the early days I was, I was concerned about because I thought we kind of get, I didn't know that we'd have, there was just a dearth of developers in the space, right? So now, I mean, like there's so many people who can code in this and you know, no, uh, who knew how to affect the core. And so I think that I, I'm not overly concerned about that coming up as a, as a big surprise attack.

John Darcie: (49:38)
Well, Sheila, it's been a pleasure to have you on salt talks. We hope to see you either at, at a world economic forum forum event. I know it's scheduled, not in Davos this year, but in Singapore in August. So if that happens, maybe I'll see you there. And we hope you come to New York for our salt, New York conference. We announced that last week, uh, September 13th to the 15th, we're hoping like the world economic forum that, that late summer fall period is when people start to get back to normal in terms of traveling and gathering and largest groups. Obviously everyone's going to still be cautious. They'll probably be masked wearing. And we're engaged with partners around that digital identity piece and ensuring that everyone who enters the venue is either vaccinated and or testing negative for the virus. So anyways, we'll be great to see you in person and get you to one of our live events or, or see you in.

Sheila Warren: (50:26)
Yeah. And fingers crossed that, that timing that we're also really banking on is in fact what transpires, it'll be really great to get some in-person time with, with you and others. Yes.

John Darcie: (50:36)
Like revolutionary to see humans gathering and supporting,

Sheila Warren: (50:40)
Wow, this

John Darcie: (50:40)
Feels, this feels weird. Like, I feel like I'm doing something bad.

Sheila Warren: (50:44)
It feels good. It's going to be a big adjustment for a lot of well, thanks for having me.

John Darcie: (50:49)
Yep. And thank you everybody for tuning in to today's salt. Talk with Sheila Warren, uh, from the world economic forum, just a reminder, if you missed any part of this episode or any of our previous episodes, you can access them on our website@salt.org. Backslash talks also on our YouTube channel, which is called salt tube. We're also on social media. Twitter is where we're most active at salt conference, but please follow us as well on LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook, we're being more active. They're trying to be more, uh, generation Z if you will, digital native. But I guess if we're going to be in the digital asset space, we should be, uh, and please spread the word about these salt talks, especially these digital asset talks. I think freeing your mind and making yourself open-minded to these ideas. Even if you're still a skeptic of something like Bitcoin, I think, uh, irrefutably decentralized finance and digital assets are revolutionizing the traditional worlds of finance. So I think it's important that we spread the word about these conversations as well, but I'm half of the entire salt team. This is John Darcie signing off for today. We hope to see you back here soon.

Jeff Booth: Author “The Price of Tomorrow" on Deflation | SALT Talks #182

“Just like Blockbuster didn’t notice Netflix, that’s what’s happening in our monetary system today [with Bitcoin].”

Jeff Booth is an entrepreneur and technologist serving as a leading Bitcoin advocate. He is the author of The Price of Tomorrow: Why Deflation is the Key to an Abundant Future.

With ever growing debt, governments are incentivized to continue printing more money to service that debt. The necessary inflation acts as a deflation on wages as assets are kept unnaturally high, continuing a cycle where the government is required to spend more and ultimately consolidate more control. Bitcoin acts as the systems change needed to escape this inflationary cycle, by creating a currency that allows for deflation. “Exponentially advancing technology changes the world… What that should look like in a free market is price decline. There’s a requirement, if we want that abundance, that currency allow for deflation.”

The systems change that Bitcoin represents not only offers individuals protection against inflation, but will also serve as the eventual off ramp for governments. It is likely the U.S. government will eventually hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE

SPEAKER

Jeff Booth.jpeg

Jeff Booth

Author

The Price of Tomorrow

MODERATOR

Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner

SkyBridge

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

Joe Eletto: (00:07)
Hello everyone. And welcome back to salt talks. My name is Joe Eletto and I'm the production manager of salt, which is a global thought leadership forum and networking platform, encompassing finance technology, and geopolitics salt talks as a series of digital interviews with the world's foremost investors, creators and thinkers. And just as we do at our global salt events, we aim to both empower big, important ideas and provide our audience a window into the minds of subject matter experts. And we are very excited today to welcome Jeff Booth to salt talks. Jeff Booth is a visionary leader who has lived at the forefront of technology change for 20 years. He led bill Dereck, a technology company that aim to simplify the building industry for nearly two decades through the.com meltdown, the 2008 financial crisis and many waves of technological disruption in January of 2020, Jeff relief disburse book titled the price of tomorrow.

Joe Eletto: (01:04)
Why deflation is key to an abundant future, and it, Jeff offers his provocative thesis about the current state of our economies and what must happen to enable a brighter future. He is a founding partner of OTU labs, co-founder of Addie invest.com and knock, knock, and serves on the boards of Terra Mera, cubic farms, llama zoo, Cynthia, and the Richmond hospital foundation, as well as numerous advisory boards and hosting today's salt talk is Brett MECing, president and chief operating officer of SkyBridge, a global alternative investment firm. Now I'll turn it over to Brett to conduct today's interview.

Brett Messing: (01:40)
Thanks, Joe. And Jeff, thanks for joining us. Um, you know, I'm a bit of a fan boy, uh, your book along with, uh, the price of tomorrow, along with BJ boy, potties peace, the bullish case for Bitcoin, uh, where I think two of the most important things that I read and that, you know, led us here at SkyBridge to really lean into Bitcoin. And, you know, we now have approaching $600 million of Bitcoin across our funds. So, you know, obviously it's worked out quite well as we talk today. I think Bitcoin's around 57,000 or so. Um, I think it, it's, it's interesting time for us to get together. You know, the, the name of your book is the price of tomorrow subtitle. Why deflation is the key to an abundant future. And today president Biden signed the $1.9 trillion stimulus. And, you know, the 10 year has backed up to, you know, north of 1.6, it's come in a little bit, uh, there's increasing concerns about inflation. There concerns about, you know, rates rising, uh, adversely affecting the economy, you know, before we sort of dive into the general thesis of your book, I like to get your reaction because I think to these events, because I think it does interact nicely with the things that you wrote about

Jeff Booth: (02:54)
And what happened what's happening is in, uh, in a currency event that is going on. We, we all tend to look at the short term news, we get caught into what's happening, um, zoomed in and instead of zooming out and to see what's really happening in a macro level. And, and that macro level, when you understand what the game board will look like, um, on both sides of the game board, um, it's gonna look a lot different in the future and as the existing system, flails, it is bound to be choppy on both sides so we can get into specifically the 10 year and everything else, but it's more important to understand the game board and the game board is technology is creating exponential efficiency and that efficiency, um, is, uh, is deflationary and exponentially. So most of the deflation is in front of us.

Jeff Booth: (03:51)
And, and, and, and so what, when I kind of wrote this book and I looked at, uh, the other side of this, what's stopping that deflation. So we see in consumer price index, we see consumer price index was lower, again, lower than expectations. Again, it's because technology is driving some prices down faster than we can print into it. And so what's stopping that from reaching society that would typically be a good thing, are prices going down? We want prices to go down, we get more for less that's what technology does, but on the other side of the coin, because we've lived in an inflationary world, our entire lives, and that that world requires more and more credit. Um, governments are trying to stop that price, those price declines by lowering interest rates first, um, lower and lower and lower, which drives massive debt debt, bubbles to try to, to try to grow out of what's happening. And so those two giant forces are colliding in society today and require a different solution. So the existing, the existing system and inflationary world cannot work with the technology where it is today. It's impossible.

Brett Messing: (05:09)
Um, you know, I find interesting is, is you sort of identify these by, I think zooming out your book, I think was published at the end of 19 or

Speaker 4: (05:18)
Over foods before. Right.

Brett Messing: (05:21)
So a lot of the issues that we're talking about, I think have been highlighted right. For all of us. I mean, I can just tell you, for example, at SkyBridge, we used to have a very large travel budget. I mean, even once everyone's vaccinated, we're going to travel 80% less right. Than we used to travel. Right. So airplanes, hotel, food, right. Just think about all the jobs and right. Multiply that across. So I think it's sorta, it's sorta hit hits home. Um, you, I guess, can you talk about how Bitcoin helps us? Right. You know, and through this, out of this, to the other side of it. Yeah. And so,

Jeff Booth: (06:02)
So, so if you, if you think about, okay, first on the, um, when I said how much data has been created over the last 20 years, kind of pre-writing the book? Um, so, so, so there was, uh, the end of 2019, there was $250 trillion of global debt to support to an $80 trillion approximate, $80 trillion global economy. Um, and, and that sounds like a lot, and it is a lot. And there you, maybe you could have a thesis that somehow we could find new industries to grow our way out of the debt, maybe. Um, but when you realize that if the, for my thesis to be true, it's exponentially driving technology down and exponentially driving debt accumulation, to be able to try to stop it. When you realize that $185 trillion of the debt, uh, came in the last 20 years, it takes your breath away. And that's just the start, right?

Jeff Booth: (06:56)
So COVID accelerated these trends. Exactly what you said. So, so now you said, now you have in the world, you have approximately 130 to $130 trillion of negative, real interest ponds that people deem safe. And that becomes the economic calculation for every other economic calculation. And they're there on their best day. You're going to lose money on it. And you know, that governments have to print a lot more money because the existing system, if you allow inflation to happen, unwinds everything, and there's nothing backing it, banks fail, everything fails all the way to the ground, and there's just counterparty risk all the way down to the ground. So just like, and so, you know, from reading this, I, I was intent, how do you find a solution out of this problem? How do you, but, but COVID accelerated everything and governments did what they tell you what to do.

Jeff Booth: (07:55)
They printed a printed and print it into it. And Bitcoin is a solution out of that problem. It's a system change. And just like, just like, uh, I, I compare a lot of these examples in business, uh, blockbuster with 9,000 stores and all the attendant costs, all they missed was how fast technology was moving and now, and has technology changed, download speeds. Um, and Netflix had the advantage and all of a sudden blockbuster had the disadvantage. Um, the, uh, everything changed in an instant. And, um, and what blockbuster did is added candy aisles to their stores and you laugh at it. But if you think about what economic policy is today, is that in candy owes to the stores, it's a cannot get out of this. And so this is going to be a system change.

Brett Messing: (08:51)
So it's funny, you know, I'm an Angeleno. I was in LA week ago, I'm in New York and with, with my daughter and I got met her that early for dinner, and I walked down this sort of Brentwood village, quarter mile area, and where I used to get my blockbuster videos is now a first Republic bank. And I realized that there are eight different bank branches in this quarter mile stretch. And I just started sort of laughing. Like I felt like I was looking at at bookstores or blockbuster videos everywhere. And it sort of underscored this idea of change, but I guess, Jeff, I understand why Bitcoin is good for me, for you, for an individual, right. Against the systemic problems that I think the pandemic has really brought into focus, but I have trouble understanding how it's good for the United States of America or for your, you know, how do we get from where we are to where we want to be with Bitcoin, as opposed to Bitcoin as being, you know, as it has been, I think appropriately characterize a monetary life raft, right. To protect against systemic collapse, right. Or this shut calls it, you know, schmuck insurance.

Jeff Booth: (10:02)
Yeah. I, I think it's way more than that. Um, I think it's a, I think it's a requirement today as a life raft. Um, it it's a must in your portfolio, but I, I believe it's way more than that. So if you just think exponentially advancing technology changes the rules, look at your phone and look at all the things that are free on your phone. The, and that's that free is coming everywhere. It's word ordinarily free price declines are in front of us. And more and more price declines are in front of us in every industry because of technology. And there's nothing that governments can do about it because, because why does a CEO add technology it's to redo, remove labor and give more for less? That's kind of the point technology is supposed to free our time. And so, so what that should look like in our life is in a free market is, is price declines next year, less, less, and in a free market would make sure that the abundance gained from technology would be broadly distributed to society.

Jeff Booth: (11:08)
So with technology and with technology, how it's changed the rules, just like a change, the rules for blockbuster technology has changed the rules and that. And so there was a requirement if we want that abundance in society, that that currency allows for deflation, the only way to stop that. And just, uh, the only way to stop that is by consolidating control. So giving more power. So inflation is giving more people, a giving, giving wealthy more money dividing, essentially inflation is the same thing as wage deflation. So you're picking the pockets of some and giving it to the others and holding prices on naturally high, which, which causes you to print more money to consolidate control. It looks more like communism over time. And eventually the free market does, there is no free Marka. You have a market that's owned by the biggest hug.

Brett Messing: (12:13)
Okay. So I have to out myself as being a pretty traditional liberal Democrat. I worked in city government in Los Angeles. Um, technology everyone's life is better with technology, right? It's, it's inarguable in terms of our, day-to-day not of content. We can get food delivered like on and on and on, but it is concentrated wealth, right. In ways that make the Teddy Roosevelt trust, busting seem quaint. Right? So, um, isn't there a revolution headed?

Jeff Booth: (12:46)
I love that you asked that the reason it's concentrated wealth is because we're operating two systems, we're operating a non-free market system into technology. That's doing the more that you're doing it. You're driving wealth into the technology companies way faster. So the same thing that's manipulating market is creating those tech monopolies,

Brett Messing: (13:13)
But on a fundamental basis, Jeff don't technology companies, which are, you know, Marc Andreessen famously, software's eating the world. They just don't need as many people. Right. So what, what do we do with all these people need jobs? Right? So, um, I I'm, I believe in the free market, but I don't completely believe it that we just leave it alone and everything's going to be okay.

Jeff Booth: (13:37)
So, so th and this is a really hard concept because we grew up in a different world and every, every politician you hear and every, and I grew up in the same world, and it was her hard concept for me to even agree in. Right. And so I'm going to out myself there too, to rewire my brain and understand what was happening because of a rule change. Um, because of what technology allows for was really hard for me to comprehend because it changes everything. So we, we want more jobs. And the reason we're keeping more jobs is by driving wages down in a global fight to keep wages down, wage deflation or inflation is wage inflation. Well, technology takes them anyways. And what, by, by doing that, we're holding prices high. So the people that are leading the companies and technology companies and the people that have the assets are winning everything, and we're dividing society as a by-product.

Jeff Booth: (14:40)
And that is a, that is a human condition stopping the natural force of technology prices would fall. So, so, and it's, it's really hard concept to understand, but you don't pay for the air you breathe, and why it's the most important thing in your life. You don't, because it's abundant. And technology is a creating that abundance everywhere. And that, and that, uh, as, as more people are competing for that abundance, people think that a lot of the apps on your phone are free because, because they get advertising dollars, they're free because it's your flashlights, a line of code and it scales and scales everywhere. And it never has to be written again. Um, it's free because your phone app looks like that too, or you, so your, your, uh, your camera app looks like that too. And we take way more photos today. We have an abundance and photos, um, for, uh, for no cost, whereas before we had to take individual photos and it looked totally different as those industries change and provide abundance, they should fall in price. And if we hold up price on naturally by trying just cling to a system that's inflating, then, then we divide society.

Brett Messing: (15:58)
So, Jeff, um, well, Jan, Janet Yellen's comments about Bitcoin, notwithstanding she and I went to the same college brown. So I'm sort of proud that, you know, we have the treasury, but that being said, let's assume with a, we elbow her out of the job. And we, you know, we put Jeff Booth in the job. Okay. And you have all the tools, including Bitcoin, most importantly, at your disposal fix stuff for us. How are we going to use, how is Bitcoin used, right? How, how, how would a wise, you know, policy maker use Bitcoin to navigate the challenges that we're facing on a macro level.

Jeff Booth: (16:37)
So I think you would argue, you would, you would agree with this, the problems that we're facing on a macro level have been made exceedingly worse by ignoring the problems that created them in the first place and papering them over. And the externality is created by a papering over those problems. First in 2000, if not in 2008, before 2008, but then in 2008 and now more, and just like I predicted in the thesis, if, if is driving exponentially this way, then you needing exponential money printing to fix up this way. Now, the problem is so bad that the government is 26% of all income, personal income. So, so the government is the market there. And, and, and, and it's holding really prey, price of commercial real estate. Shouldn't not be anywhere near what commercial real estate is in, in COVID. Yeah, let's try

Brett Messing: (17:38)
If I can interject. So one of the, the SCCs resistance to a Bitcoin, but Bitcoin ETF is that the market has manipulated. Right. Right. What do you think about what let's start with the oil market, right. Where we have OPEC, right. We have the strategic petroleum reserve and to say nothing of where you were headed, um, in terms of market manipulation, just,

Jeff Booth: (18:01)
But, but again, you're holding prices high, preventing the market, the natural clearing functions in the market to take hold to, to, to allow, to re, to regrow the other side. And by doing that, there's a whole bunch of people left out of that wealth. So some people are you've made money on naturally, and you pick the pocket of other people to give them now those same prices in real estate houses, rents, everything else that you've unnaturally kept high. Then this, then a whole bunch of people that can't pay for their food or housing, come back to government and say, I need some money. So I can pay for my, uh, my food and housing, which they made the problem in the first place. And no actor in the system can change that. And by the way, if I came in, I couldn't change. Uh, I couldn't change that because it's a system problem.

Jeff Booth: (18:53)
And, and, and again, when the rules change, smart people change technology has changed the rules, the existing system will fail and, and, and the geopolitical mess. Normally these systems fail through war and they get to get reset. And first through, in a lot of times through revolution, then war, and then they get reset. I wish that wasn't the case, but the existing system creates more and more instability in the system because of, because of ignoring fundamentals. In other words, stopping creative destruction at the company level and the economy level, all that happened is creative destruction moved to the, to the currency and monetary level.

Brett Messing: (19:38)
Come on, Jeff. You're supposed to be a utopian technologist. Tell us, tell us, tell us how we use technology in the form of Bitcoin to, to get through this. You know, now

Jeff Booth: (19:48)
That now the, the, uh, now the other side, right? If, if governments today stopped printing or fiscal or anything else you would ever depression on your hands that would look like the thirties would look like a walk in the park, it would, you would have everything collapsed down to 90%. Uh, it would collapse by 90% banks would fail. All the banks would fail. Governments would fail. So that's why they can't let, because, because deflation, the debt can never be, you can't let deflation happen, and that can never be paid back. But, but the natural market is deflation because if technology, so enter a system change from outside the system, that's what Bitcoin is. It's a currency that would over time allow for deflation. So if you measured your life in Bitcoin and Bitcoin, you will see the natural market and pricing that the true pricing and prices will have everything over time will keep falling. Bitcoin will rise. But if you measure, if your, if your currency standard is Bitcoin is up, if that's what your unit of account is, you'll see over time, the natural market. And so if that happens slow enough and, and, and Bitcoin moves broadly into society, then, then that is a great thing, because it also is a forcing function for technology to be able to move broadly to society.

Brett Messing: (21:21)
Um, so, so you're setting that, that the, for an individual, right, owning the Bitcoin is a way to defend yourself. Well, what's the government doing that records. The government is, is, is in that same, same position you just, you discussed, right? Which is if they try to shut the machine off the economy collapses, they've got to find a way sort of let things out sort of slowly, right? So,

Jeff Booth: (21:49)
But what's happening right now right now, geopolitically, and this is connected. The so, so China is printing more than the us to keep their, a dollar lower, to keep their labor rate lower so that we buy more. So us buys more goods, and you asked us trying to, uh, to devalue their dollar, to be able to gain jobs lower their labor rate when technology is TA, because if you lower your layer of labor rate, then technology won't take the jobs as fast. So that's, what's happening all over the world. And it's kind of a race to the bottom on currency, more and more of this as happening. And that is creating the same geopolitical tension, um, around or around the world. Communism is defunded by a free market. If there's anybody that knows this, it's a U S U S was founded on, on these principles on the rights of the individual and a free and a free market. And, and so the only way to control citizens is through if, if, if you, if you actually, so I suspect that that the best way for, for the U S to actually kind of emerge, emerge, or really strong out of this is to embrace Bitcoin because China won't embrace Bitcoin. So when

Brett Messing: (23:08)
You say embraced, you mean, hold it as a reserve asset. So sell our gold and buy Bitcoin, what does embrace, how does that manifest itself

Jeff Booth: (23:17)
That'll happen eventually? Um, and it might happen quietly, uh, early on, but first it'll be, uh, uh, regulation around their own ramps off ramps and the whole new industry ecosystem. That is, uh, that is, that understands where technology is going and why that's a good thing for, uh, for humanity.

Brett Messing: (23:41)
Have you willing to call me back? So I, you know, I would have rightly I think, well, not really people would probably accuse me in the fall of being too bullish on Bitcoin. And the last six months, it's just been remarkable, you know, the events in terms of the institutional adoption, um, you know, banks committing to it, right from BFA Mellon, JP Morgan. I mean, they're being pulled by their invest by their clients. Like, they're not, you know, they're not going into it. They're, you know, they realize they have to do it or, or their customers are going to go somewhere else. What is it, is this what you expected? Is it happening faster? It's

Jeff Booth: (24:20)
What I expected. Um, I th uh, I, I think, um, I think in this cycle, we'll see it continue like this. And, um, and then in the next hinder, the next habit know, trade sideways for some time, it'll go away up from here this year, I believe. Um, then it'll trail back down into the next cycle, as it trails back down and, um, it down and choppy for the next kind of two years after that, um, people will bias why it's doing that because they'll say, okay, government is going to regulate it or this or this. And then into the next halving cycle, I believe it's going to take off again.

Brett Messing: (25:00)
So I want to press on this. Um, I'm not an economist, but you know, I have been a trader. And what I have experienced is that all great obvious trades eventually go away, right? So the gray scale arbitrage, where it was a great trade and we've done it. And I had this instinct in September when those to not do it and gratefully, we didn't do it, which falls in the category of like better, lucky than good. Um, but it feels to me like half the world has the following trade on. I buy Bitcoin at the having, and then I sell it 14 to 18 months out. And that feels to me like the gray scale trade. And so it's my personal view. I like your reaction to this, that one of two things is going to happen. I think this cycle looking for like the other cycles is a less than 10% chance.

Brett Messing: (25:49)
So I think either it's going to this cycle ends much sooner than people are expecting, right? And we head into a crypto bear market, you know, earlier, or, and I'm wearing a Bitcoin hat. So you can imagine this is the one I think that we're going to get to a high number. People will sell their Bitcoin, some OJI Bitcoin holders. You may even see hedge funds, short Bitcoin, and it's just going to laugh at everybody and keep moving higher. Not saying we're not going to have cycles, but that it will go higher. And that the bull market will last longer from a temporal standpoint than people expect. And then of course, if you have any thoughts on that, cause there's, I, I love that. I, I love

Jeff Booth: (26:32)
That you said that I, so, so one of the things that when, when you hear the FID around Bitcoin, um, you realize how early we are in this cycle. So you might not early and to, to make the investment or bet that you did with your funds and everything else, you would have done diligence. Like I did diligence and then every attack factor, what does this look like? And come to the realization that it's not Bitcoin that holds the risk. Bitcoin's an asymmetric bet. It's the, an existing system and everything priced in other dollars, it holds the massive risk. And there's very few people that still understand that. And so we are so early in the cycle. Um, and, and so now to you're having cycle, I agree with you. It won't look, it will, I, I suspect it won't exactly match. And whether it matches closer in this cycle or the next one, at some point that are ill arbitrage out.

Brett Messing: (27:28)
Right. Because right. It just seems there's too many people playing from the same playbook. And it, my experience with markets is, is that it just never, whenever, when there's such a strong consensus and, you know, people are treating, where are we in, in this? Where do you think we are in the cycle? You know, it just doesn't play out that way. Um,

Jeff Booth: (27:48)
But what I would say is if you ask most people, like you're, you're deeply in here in YPO, around my technology, friends and, and, and very wealthy individuals, not the foggiest, like it's really early.

Brett Messing: (28:07)
Oh, no, I, I, you know, again, I mentioned I'm from LA and, you know, my collection of friends there, all of whom, you know, done reasonably well, none of them, any Bitcoin, I mean, any Bitcoin zero, we actually, uh, last week we figured out that a lot of the emails that our sales team send out have been getting bounced back. We weren't aware of it because we have the word Bitcoin, like in a footer with like a, for a regulatory disclosure. And there are servers, a decent number of them that if they see the word Bitcoin, it's like the word Al-Qaeda. So, um, when, when I heard that, I was like, that's awesome. It's, uh, it's early. Um, and I, you know, I think that, I think that makes it, makes it very exciting. So there, so think

Jeff Booth: (28:51)
About some of the, these things, because by the way, what, um, what, um, some of these concepts that we talk about, so government today, one of the concepts about Bitcoin is bad for the climate, right? It uses energy. Now let's dig a little bit on, on that. Um, and say, so number one, I think, you know, this, that Bitcoin, which searches for low cost energy. And so it actually helps the grid of solar expand and it, uh, and, and, and that should happen at it should, can continue to advance solar because it's the Bitcoin miners are constantly searching for the lowest cost energy, but that's actually the small part of the conver conversation. The bigger part of the conversation is this technology, including energy is deflationary. And so energy is 9% of the global GDP. And it's a number one input of everything else. We do.

Jeff Booth: (29:52)
A lot of things become, they work, or they don't work because of energy. In fact, the, the, in, in entire entire oil, um, uh, us, uh, on oil reserve, everything else was about energy, low cost, low cost, energy securing energy, and it's a geopolitical game, but now, now you have new solar not ready to transition all the solar renewables, but you have new energy competing at the lowest cost additive to the energy grid. So that must therefore be deflationary and additive to deflation that we're already talking about on a kind of an exponential layer. Cause it talks, it cut, cuts across everything. Now, what do you do as a government? Because what you're trying to do, what you're saying is I care about climate. So I'm going to fund innovation and climate to reduce planet climate damage, uh, CO2 emissions. And every time that you increase more energy from lower cost, clean energy, it's lower cost.

Jeff Booth: (31:04)
And so I have to offset that lower costs by printing money to make oil prices go up, to make other things work, to be able to buy more and more and more. So, um, the existing monetary system of the world can, you cannot grow forever on a final finite planet. Growth with technology is different than growth for the last hundred years. Growth with technology makes things free or lowers the costs so much that it changes the economic calculation. And that's the thing that people are really missing. It's a penance and it's a big deal. It's impossible to solve climate, um, out of the existing system. In fact, the existing system is the cause of climate change.

Brett Messing: (31:52)
No, like I think I actually think that for the next year or so, this issue of ESG investing and Bitcoin being bad for the environment, it's going to be the single biggest obstacle to further adoption. And I think it's sort of funny that JP Morgan, you know, Jamie diamond is calling Bitcoin a dirty asset because there is probably no company in the world that has contributed to ruining the climate and the environment than JP Morgan. If we were to look at his sort of long history, including right now where it's representing Exxon in a proxy battle. Um, and I think by trying to characterize Bitcoin as a quote dirty asset, right, that would slow. I think, you know, there are investors are becoming more on that in the construction of their portfolio, but we have a challenge because, because our, that is a soundbite and you're providing a nuanced right. Intelligent, but not soundbite response. And, and, and this is something we as a community I think, need to work on.

Jeff Booth: (32:57)
I think so too, because here's what I really had believed if technology and it's not an F technology is advancing exponentially, that that technology should be giving us an abundance for less. We don't need as many things. It gives us more for free and jobs come out of there and jobs can come out of the equation. As things go to free, we don't have to be on a most wheel forever working our entire lives to try to save enough money to retire the last 10. It looks different. But in that model, which is required for the change in technology, it's a structural change in that model. Bitcoin might be the only thing that saves the planet.

Jeff Booth: (33:40)
It's actually exactly the opposite to what people are talking about. What they're talking about is the same reason they talk about real estate, always going up without measuring, because they're measuring from within a system and real estate always goes up from within a system. If you don't look, let hit $185 trillion of stimulus, it took in the last 20 years to make real estate always go up. But again, what you're talking about, even if you looked at the CPI index and everything else is, imagine the CPI index, what that would look like without that $185 trillion of stimulus over the last 20 years. So it wouldn't just be, TV's getting bigger and cheaper. It wouldn't be just your computers, the CVI index, and all of that is all the technology products are out running that at a scale and driving price

Brett Messing: (34:39)
Never I've had fracking, right. He made fracking possible. Right? All that capital was lost. Right. But it was, it was easy money that financed, right. That's sort of dirty. And I'm an energy guy. I spent a lot of time trading energy. Um, uh, no, I look, I think it's fascinating if you, right. If you look out 50 years from now, we're not going to be using fossil fuels. Right. And what general motors says at 2030, or they don't want to sell any cars right. That you, other than electric cars. So this problem self-corrects right, because let's face it. It is true that over half of Bitcoin is not renewable. Right. And some portion of it is dirty coal coming out of AutoMark Mongolia. Right. I mean, we, we, we can't hide from that. That is true. Um, but it's also true back to my roots in LA that approximately 28% of the electricity that goes into your Tesla is coal because the power that that DWP gets, it used to be about 50% coal. They've got an under 30, but they have coal plants that they own, not in California, Nevada and Utah, they have transmission lines. And so you're pouring you almost 30% of what you're putting your Tesla is coal. So it's, it's sort of all around us, but, but, you know, but, but, but, but, but, but again,

Jeff Booth: (35:59)
What ends up happening is technologies. It happens really slowly. So they happen fast, but we misjudge, we overestimate the impact early on, and then we massively underestimate the impact later and you've read it in the book, but that would be a fail. If I fold a piece of paper on itself, 50 times that piece of paper will reach from here to the sun. I've re I've asked that question to people all over the, uh, all over the world to audiences. And most people, guests, 99% of people, guests about two inches. Um, that was a piece of paper would be two inches, but it shows, and I'm not doing it for, okay. Look at a parlor Trek. What it does is shows how badly we misunder standard exponentials and is the same reason why we S we, we early on in solar, we think it's gonna work and it costs way too much. And nobody pays attention because it doesn't hit an economic calculation that matters. And, and then we underestimated on the other side because the, as, uh, as the economic viability increases, all the market moves there. Well, as the market's moving there because of lower prices, it's going to transition faster and faster and faster. And the corresponding offset for the existing inflationary system has to be more and more printing of money to try to eradicate that technology gain.

Brett Messing: (37:26)
So Jeff, if we're wrong, right. And, um, you know, embarrassed by the fact that I wore a Bitcoin hat for the rally of 2020, 21, I'm like a pitcher with a no-hitter, I'm afraid to take it off. Um, why are we going to be raw? What do you worry about, um,

Jeff Booth: (37:49)
If there's one thing I still, uh, um, uh, think about, or I'm curious about it's, uh, and, and in the next years, I'm not worried about it because I'm pretty deep into the technologists around it, but, but quantum, uh, is, is a, um, and, and next five, 10 years. And I think the network is designed in a way that it'll get, uh, um, it gets stronger and stronger against us. So it should be post quantum, uh, uh, uh, uh unfavorability and everything else in a network of ill evolve it's designed into the network. But, but that is something that, uh, that if I said to an edge case, if I was looking for edge cases of the very, so there's a non-zero chance if I'm saying technology is moving this fast, and it's hard to forecast how fast, fast technology is moving, then it would be really ignorant of me to say, it's impossible, no matter what that something is something, uh, as something that was. So I watched for that, I think right now it's almost a zero probability, um, where we are today, but, but I'll continue to watch for that.

Brett Messing: (39:07)
And how, and where would we see that bubbling up? In other words, you know, uh, uh, uh, you know, is it, I actually was an energy investor and I rightly underestimated the speed through which renewables would take the legs out of the energy market. Right. So I learned from that. Um, so I do learning from that experience, like, what are the signs that this is something that we, that is sort of happening and we need to pay really careful attention to.

Jeff Booth: (39:36)
So, so it's, it'd be hard to go into because the attack factors, aren't what people think, and there's not. Uh, and so to say, it's going to nullify the whole network. I don't believe that. And the algorithm change, uh, the, uh, the hashing changes to be able to admit, uh, to, to update that in as well, quantum computers are really bad at algorithms. And so, so it, it makes it today maybe for the next 10 years, technically unfeasible to be able to do that. But if you, if you broke through that earlier, at some point, some of their early Bitcoin, um, in the, in the wallets, weren't, weren't, uh, they were public keys or whatever. And so you could cack those, you might be able to hack those and by doing it by doing so, not vault, not invalidate the network or anything else, but it would create an incentive at some point down the road, unless the protocol changes too, to try to, because there's so much value in those early coins. So there's, there's a, there's a bunch of when you look at these different, different things, is it risk to the entire network? Is it the rest of the blockchain? Probably not, but where, where could it hold, uh,

Brett Messing: (41:02)
The value for some time? Well, look, Jeff, I follow you on Twitter. So I hope you'll tweet about it, cause I probably won't otherwise like, be aware that there's, so I'm going to count on your Twitter feed is, you know, uh, to let us know, you know, that we need to be, uh, you know, be careful, uh, this has been great, you know, um, I'm sorry if you say something. No. And, and, and, and I think the

Jeff Booth: (41:29)
Beautiful thing about this, uh, and, and, and probably the best way to at this as if you think about all the sharp minds defending this network and the innovation that's coming onto this network, and the amount of now capital innovation, the, this, the smartest technology minds, um, Bitcoin Twitter is a really great spot. It's harsh sometimes, but, but it constantly evolves in its, in its hits. It's kind of clarified the best information wins.

Brett Messing: (41:59)
No, I actually joined Twitter in September of last year, just because I, I had been told that I should follow a big one Twitter and you're right. It is a great exchange of ideas. Um, and what's really impressed me is the number of smart minds, really smart minds in Bitcoin. And then the other thing that really got me super comfortable so much. So, you know, I put my personal capital in first, but I'm riskier with my own money than I am when I'm a fiduciary of others, was that this was great. As I said, BJ's piece was great. There's a bunch of other stuff that, that not as good as the stuff that was helpful. And when we, when we started marketing, you know, uh, talking about Bitcoin, you know, regulators like us to have things that are fair and balanced. So we had to find stuff that was giving the, the negative case on Bitcoin. And there is a negative case, but there are no really thoughtful pieces out there. There is no counter to this or BJ's piece where you read it and you're like, that's really compelling, right? So you, I don't know that that, that helped me a lot because it's one thing for Nouriel Roubini to fire off tweets and write a column here, but their ad hot on the ad hominem and text. Um,

Speaker 4: (43:13)
Here's, here's what, and I'd seriously ask,

Jeff Booth: (43:16)
Ask anybody, ask on Twitter, ask anybody, how are you going to make the existing system work without concentrating all power in the state against technology, moving at this rate? And they, and, and, and what you'll find you'll find is a whole bunch of crickets on that. They'll say, well, we can't allow deflation because deflation would be bad for debts it, which is true and everything. And, but you'll find a whole bunch of crickets on that con con uh, conversation that I just had. Cause it's impossible. But then that's why I said, this is a structural change to society. And those structural changes don't come around very often. And we don't notice someone. They do just like blockbuster. Didn't notice Netflix. And, and, and that's, what's happening in our monetary system today. And there's very few people that are, are really understanding what it means for everything else, the rules, all of the rules change. It's almost upside down from the way we grew up. And, and well, I don't know if I was ready to like that or anything else. It doesn't change. It doesn't change the facts. So we better start to design. We better start to design a system that is congruent with that system.

Brett Messing: (44:35)
Well, Jeff I've become a Buddhist. I don't like, or just like, I just accept things as they are and make

Speaker 4: (44:41)
Love that.

Brett Messing: (44:43)
Well, thank you so much. This was awesome. I'm going to flash your book again, which I highly recommend the price or tomorrow. And, um, you know, this has really been great, you know, thank you for taking the time and you know, uh, let's, uh, let's stay in touch and hopefully we'll have you, you know, we're having a salt in New York in September, and we'd love to have you on a panel, uh, talking Bitcoin deflation, monetary policy. I'd

Jeff Booth: (45:05)
Love to love to do that. Thanks again for having me.

Brett Messing: (45:07)
That'd be great, Joe. You want to take us out?

Joe Eletto: (45:10)
Absolutely. Thank you again, Jeff. And thank you Brad, for leading this conversation. I'm glad we got the hold of the book and be advertorial about that. So as Brett mentioned, we are coming to New York for salt, New York in September 13 through 15. So more information will be available on our website@sault.org. If you're looking to learn more about salt talks, listen to us on podcast, salt.org backslash talks, where you can also find our full library of previous salt talks dating back to may of 2020. We're also on social media. If you want to watch any of these or engage with our conversation on Twitter, it's at salt conference, YouTube salt tube, and we're also of course on LinkedIn and Facebook, but on behalf of the entire salt team, this is Joel Leno signing off for today. We'll see you again soon.